29
May

Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

World no. 2 (per the Hawley Ratings) Patrick Cantlay slightly out-ranks world no. 1 Scottie Scheffler this week in the Memorial Tournament based on his outstanding record in the event over the past five years. Cantlay won the event in 2021 and 2019 and was in the top five last year and in 2018. He had mid-pack finishes in his two other appearances, 2020 and 2017. Cantlay also is a great fit for the course and comes in playing very well. Since his last missed cut (Phoenix in February), he’s been in the top 10 in five of nine appearances and no worse than 21st in the other four.

Which is not to say that there is anything wrong with Scheffler. He missed the playoff by one stroke in last weekend’s Schwab and has finished in the top five his last three times out. Since last November, he has two wins, 12 top-10s, and no finish worse than 12th in 15 events. His rating number of 2431 is the highest recorded in the Hawley Ratings in 13 years, since Tiger Woods in May, 2010. With this being a PGA Tour elevated event, the field is of course strong, including everyone from the top 10 excepr Max Homa.

Over the last eight years of this event, the stats most closely correlated with success are scrambling and shots gained in approach. Rory McIlroy is the best fit for the course in the field based on his statistical profile (top 5 percent in SG-approach), with Scheffler (top 5 percent in scrambling) slightly behind. Others who should like the course include (alphabetically) Cantlay, Tom Kim, Matt Kuchar, Collin Morikawa, and Jon Rahm. Players coming in with strong recent performance include Xander Schauffle, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton, and Michael Kim.

Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Patrick Cantlay -26.1 30
2 Scottie Scheffler -17.7 3
3 Xander Schauffele -9.5 24
4 Jon Rahm 1.5 16
5 Rory McIlroy 2.7 7
6 Tyrrell Hatton 12.8 12
7 Viktor Hovland 16.8 1
8 Sungjae Im 19.6 41
9 Justin Thomas 23.1 81
10 Jordan Spieth 24.9 5
11 Rickie Fowler 27.9 9
12 Corey Conners 28.1 98
13 Matthew Fitzpatrick 29.0 9
14 Sam Burns 30.6 16
15 Adam Scott 30.8 9
16 Jason Day 33.2 67
17 Collin Morikawa 33.4 WD
18 Russell Henley 33.6 16
19 Hideki Matsuyama 34.8 16
20 Shane Lowry 35.0 16
21 Cameron Davis 36.9 101
22 Wyndham Clark 37.4 12
23 Sahith Theegala 37.4 58
24 Tom Kim 37.5 108
25 Denny McCarthy 37.5 2
26 Cameron Young 37.8 76
27 Keegan Bradley 38.6 30
28 Matt Kuchar 40.2 62
29 Adam Hadwin 41.7 67
30 Seamus Power 42.9 41
31 Harris English 43.0 52
32 Keith Mitchell 43.6 48
33 Si Woo Kim 43.7 4
34 Brian Harman 43.8 89
35 Taylor Moore 44.0 DNP
36 Kurt Kitayama 44.1 112
37 Emiliano Grillo 46.1 48
38 Chris Kirk 47.1 67
39 Tom Hoge 48.0 65
40 Taylor Montgomery 48.2 41
41 Billy Horschel 48.4 114
42 KH Lee 48.5 89
43 Gary Woodland 48.6 24
44 Justin Suh 49.2 41
45 Sepp Straka 51.3 16
46 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 51.5 38
47 Michael Kim 51.6 DNP
48 Ryan Fox 51.7 30
49 Brendon Todd 52.5 WD
50 Alex Smalley 52.7 101
51 Byeong Hun An 53.2 24
52 Andrew Putnam 53.6 5
53 Adam Svensson 53.7 89
54 Mark Hubbard 53.8 30
55 Matthew NeSmith 53.8 76
56 Taylor Pendrith 54.3 60
57 Davis Riley 54.6 54
58 Thomas Detry 54.6 48
59 Beau Hossler 54.6 24
60 Patrick Rodgers 54.7 30
61 JT Poston 54.9 38
62 Eric Cole 54.9 24
63 Kevin Streelman 55.3 76
64 Hayden Buckley 55.4 116
65 Lucas Herbert 55.6 81
66 JJ Spaun 56.2 30
67 Alex Noren 56.2 52
68 Maverick McNealy 56.3 DNP
69 Stephan Jaeger 56.9 24
70 Ben Griffin 56.9 67
71 Mac Hughes 57.4 67
72 Adam Schenk 57.9 7
73 Scott Stallings 58.1 81
74 Brandon Wu 58.2 89
75 Aaron Rai 58.3 101
76 Robby Shelton 59.1 81
77 Joel Dahmen 59.4 67
78 Sam Ryder 60.3 56
79 Kevin Kisner 60.4 108
80 Nate Lashley 60.6 DNP
81 SH Kim 60.6 41
82 Francesco Molinari 60.6 112
83 Lee Hodges 61.1 12
84 Austin Eckroat 61.3 30
85 David Lipsky 61.9 12
86 Chez Reavie 61.9 58
87 Nick Hardy 62.0 76
88 Chad Ramey 62.1 117
89 Lanto Griffin 62.4 64
90 Joseph Bramlett 62.6 16
91 Ben Taylor 63.1 101
92 Trey Mullinax 63.3 67
93 Danny Willett 63.3 54
94 Sam Stevens 63.9 41
95 Troy Merritt 64.7 108
96 Peter Malnati 64.7 117
97 David Lingmerth 64.7 89
98 Luke List 64.9 16
99 Davis Thompson 66.1 56
100 Adam Long 66.4 98
101 Nicolai Hojgaard 66.5 98
102 Dylan Frittelli 66.7 WD
103 Callum Tarren 66.8 DNP
104 Will Gordon 67.0 76
105 Russell Knox 67.2 DNP
106 Ben Martin 67.3 DNP
107 Akshay Bhatia 67.6 89
108 Garrick Higgo 67.6 30
109 Lucas Glover 67.7 89
110 Matt Wallace 68.1 48
111 Stewart Cink 68.1 60
112 Zach Johnson 68.6 67
113 MJ Daffue 69.5 81
114 Thriston Lawrence 69.7 101
115 Justin Lower 69.9 89
116 Christopher Gotterup 70.0 81
117 Brandt Snedeker 71.4 41
118 Luke Donald 71.5 38
119 Nico Echavarria 71.6 81
120 David Micheluzzi 72.1 101
121 William McGirt 73.1 89
122 Kazuki Higa 74.0 67
123 Tyson Alexander 74.0 DNP
124 Bo Hoag 75.3 108
125 Jason Dufner 75.9 101
126 Sam Bennett 76.1 63
127 Aldrich Potgieter 77.9 81
128 KJ Choi 77.9 114
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June 5, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 243. The average is 162. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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