05
Jun

RBC Canadian Open Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Two-time defending champion Rory McIlroy comes into this week’s RBC Canadian Open playing well and the obvious favorite. McIlroy has won the event on both of his appearances here, last year and 2019, the intervening two years lost to the pandemic. He has two runner-up finishes (Match Play and Palmer), two sevenths, and two missed cuts (Masters and TPC) among seven appearances since March.

The event, one of few on the tour that plays a rotating set of courses, is at Oakdale Golf & CC, a first-time course for the event that is about 15 miles from downtown Toronto, this year. The layout has been created from a mixed set of the club’s 27 holes.

With the U.S. Open in Los Angeles a week hence, the field features McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton from the Hawley Ratings top 10. Hatton has been playing great, with five straight top-20 finishes, the best of which was third at the Wells Fargo. Tommy Fleetwood has two top-10s in 11 PGA Tour appearances this year but missed the cut last week in Ohio. Also improving their rating numbers are Justin Rose (three top-20s since April) and Corey Conners (winner at Texas and one other top-10 in six tries since April).

Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Rory McIlroy -10.6 9
2 Tyrrell Hatton 10.4 3
3 Tommy Fleetwood 27.4 2
4 Sam Burns 27.6 76
5 Matthew Fitzpatrick 28.0 20
6 Justin Rose 28.7 8
7 Corey Conners 29.8 20
8 Shane Lowry 29.9 43
9 Cameron Young 39.7 57
10 Sahith Theegala 41.8 38
11 Keith Mitchell 44.2 107
12 Matt Kuchar 44.9 20
13 Adam Hadwin 45.5 12
14 Byeong Hun An 49.1 DNP
15 Eric Cole 49.9 6
16 Michael Kim 50.7 43
17 Aaron Wise 51.2 107
18 Nick Taylor 51.6 1
19 Mark Hubbard 52.1 6
20 Alex Smalley 52.8 25
21 Brendon Todd 53.4 34
22 Adam Svensson 53.9 96
23 Davis Riley 54.5 DNP
24 David Lipsky 54.9 128
25 Stephan Jaeger 54.9 DNP
26 Lee Hodges 55.2 25
27 Michael Block 55.8 96
28 Maverick McNealy 55.9 128
29 Vincent Norrman 56.0 96
30 Taylor Pendrith 56.2 65
31 Harry Hall 57.6 34
32 Ben Griffin 57.7 DNP
33 Adrian Meronk 57.8 76
34 Mac Hughes 58.0 96
35 Brandon Wu 58.4 9
36 Aaron Rai 58.4 3
37 Carson Young 59.0 43
38 Joseph Bramlett 59.4 DNP
39 Sam Bennett 59.4 20
40 Robby Shelton 59.5 123
41 Nate Lashley 59.9 17
42 SH Kim 60.1 25
43 Sam Ryder 60.1 DNP
44 Luke List 60.7 DNP
45 Chez Reavie 61.5 25
46 CT Pan 62.1 3
47 Sam Stevens 62.3 DNP
48 Webb Simpson 62.4 DNP
49 Doug Ghim 62.6 12
50 Aaron Baddeley 62.7 96
51 Erik van Rooyen 63.0 144
52 Patton Kizzire 63.9 38
53 Peter Malnati 64.0 43
54 Austin Smotherman 64.0 50
55 Chad Ramey 64.1 107
56 Lanto Griffin 64.2 96
57 Dylan Wu 64.2 25
58 Garrick Higgo 64.4 50
59 David Lingmerth 64.6 WD
60 Scott Piercy 65.0 57
61 Davis Thompson 65.7 DNP
62 Paul Haley 65.9 107
63 Callum Tarren 65.9 43
64 Nicolai Hojgaard 66.2 107
65 Sean O’Hair 66.3 87
66 Charley Hoffman 66.3 DNP
67 Martin Laird 66.4 96
68 Cameron Champ 66.5 76
69 Russell Knox 66.5 76
70 Ben Martin 66.6 107
71 Adam Long 66.7 57
72 Kramer Hickok 66.8 107
73 Andrew Novak 67.4 9
74 Akshay Bhatia 67.4 68
75 Will Gordon 67.5 18
76 Tyler Duncan 67.6 96
77 Lucas Glover 67.6 20
78 James Hahn 67.7 57
79 Zac Blair 67.8 DNP
80 Cameron Percy 67.9 52
81 Greyson Sigg 68.3 38
82 Doc Redman 68.4 96
83 Chesson Hadley 68.5 43
84 Brandt Snedeker 68.5 151
85 Matthias Schwab 69.1 87
86 MJ Daffue 69.1 38
87 Zecheng Dou 69.2 123
88 Justin Lower 69.2 25
89 Vincent Whaley 69.4 72
90 Aaron Cockerill 69.5 76
91 Kevin Tway 69.5 76
92 Harry Higgs 69.5 12
93 Robert Streb 69.8 151
94 Martin Trainer 69.8 72
95 Richy Werenski 69.9 65
96 Ryan Armour 70.1 87
97 Ryan Gerard 70.2 43
98 Henrik Norlander 70.5 72
99 Ryan Moore 70.6 25
100 Harrison Endycott 70.7 12
101 Kevin Chappell 70.8 87
102 Cody Gribble 70.9 34
103 Michael Gligic 70.9 128
104 Brice Garnett 71.0 68
105 Matthias Schmid 71.4 76
106 Seung-yul Noh 71.6 38
107 Sung Kang 71.6 57
108 Hank Lebioda 71.8 120
109 Chris Stroud 72.1 87
110 Brian Stuard 72.1 128
111 Jonathan Byrd 72.2 12
112 Austin Cook 72.2 140
113 Brandon Matthews 72.3 140
114 Brent Grant 72.5 52
115 William McGirt 72.6 120
116 Kelly Kraft 72.8 87
117 Tyson Alexander 73.0 128
118 Nick Watney 73.0 151
119 Augusto Nunez 73.2 76
120 Carl Yuan 73.4 18
121 Max McGreevy 73.5 144
122 Bill Haas 73.6 WD
123 Trevor Werbylo 73.8 123
124 Kevin Roy 74.0 87
125 Kyle Westmoreland 74.1 140
126 Michael Thorbjornsen 74.2 120
127 Sangmoon Bae 74.4 96
128 Roger Sloan 74.5 34
129 Ryan Brehm 74.5 107
130 Scott Harrington 74.6 150
131 Jim Herman 74.9 128
132 Brian Gay 74.9 52
133 Philip Knowles 75.1 DNP
134 Andrew Landry 75.1 57
135 Geoff Ogilvy 75.1 123
136 Trevor Cone 75.2 68
137 Ricky Barnes 75.2 107
138 Jason Dufner 75.3 52
139 Grayson Murray 75.4 76
140 Scott Brown 75.4 65
141 Tommy Gainey 75.4 144
142 Jake Knapp 75.7 87
143 Wesley Bryan 75.8 107
144 Benjamin Silverman 75.9 76
145 Camilo Villegas 76.0 76
146 Derek Ernst 76.7 128
147 Ludvig Aberg 76.8 25
148 Derek Lamely 76.8 138
149 Wil Bateman 76.9 68
150 David Hearn 77.2 128
151 Ben Crane 77.3 138
152 Mike Weir 77.6 52
153 Stuart MacDonald 77.7 57
154 Luis Carrera 77.9 154
155 Myles Creighton 77.9 144
156 Taylor Durham 77.9 128
157 Daniel Kim 77.9 144
158 Etienne Papineau 77.9 DNP
159 Sebastian Szirmak 77.9 140
160 Johnny Travale 77.9 107
Ted Potter late entry 25
Peter Kuest late entry 62
George McNeill late entry 94
Kevin Stadler late entry 104
Kyle Stanley late entry 113
David Carey late entry 115
Ryan Hall late entry 125
Drew Nesbitt late entry 128
Omar Uresti late entry 147
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June 12, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 200. The average is 162. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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