I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Xander Schauffele	0.825
Hideki Matsuyama	0.741
Dustin Johnson	0.694
Rory McIlroy	0.679
Jon Rahm	0.659
Brooks Koepka	0.617
Patrick Reed	0.601
Justin Thomas	0.559

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2514.7
Patrick Cantlay	2	2318.7
Xander Schauffele	3	2124.3
Rory McIlroy	4	2088.7
Jon Rahm	5	2009.7
Viktor Hovland	6	1776.8
Tyrrell Hatton	7	1678.0
Max Homa	8	1632.2

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Will Zalatoris	13	1444.3
Daniel Berger	24	1218.8
Talor Gooch	35	1077.1
Harold Varner	45	953.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Adam Scott	1500.6
Viktor Hovland	1487.3
Denny McCarthy	1383.8
Scottie Scheffler	1382.8
Rickie Fowler	1352.0
Tommy Fleetwood	1223.1
Sepp Straka	1074.4
Eric Cole	1055.1

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Cameron Young	-1147.0
Jason Day	-923.5
Sungjae Im	-916.6
Keith Mitchell	-839.6
Brian Harman	-803.7
Taylor Montgomery	-783.4
Sahith Theegala	-777.3
Dustin Johnson	-741.4

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on U.S. Open courses over the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.26	Shots gained putting
0.20	Greens in regulation
0.18	Shots gained around the green
0.08	Driving distance

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Min Woo Lee	71.69
Jon Rahm	72.04
Scottie Scheffler	72.67
Patrick Cantlay	72.98
Jason Day	72.98
Max Homa	73.24
Tony Finau	73.27
Xander Schauffele	73.35

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Francesco Molinari	76.4
Lucas Herbert	76.1
Brent Grant	75.6
Nico Echavarria	75.6
Gary Woodland	75.6
Charley Hoffman	75.3
Luke List	75.2
Adam Scott	75.1

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Los Angeles, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Justin Suh	Los Angeles Ca	10
Patrick Cantlay	Long Beach CA	25
Sahith Theegala	Chino Hills CA	38
Phil Mickelson	Rancho Santa Fe CA	100
Taylor Montgomery	Las Vegas NV	225
Collin Morikawa	Las Vegas NV	225
Seamus Power	Las Vegas NV	225
Xander Schauffele	Las Vegas NV	225
Charley Hoffman	Las Vegas NV	225

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.370
I love this place	0.173
Ooh, that’s hot	0.132
Location, location, location	0.104