12
Jun

U.S. Open Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

It’s been a long time since anyone put together a stretch like Scottie Scheffler has done so far in 2023. The data on which alookatgolf.com is built goes back to the start of the century, and the last time someone put together anything like this was 13 years ago, since the Tiger Woods of May, 2010. Scheffler has been in the top five in four straight events and in eight of 13 appearances this year. He is warming up as favorite in this weekend’s U.S. Open at the posh LA Country Club. Scheffler was last year’s U.S. Open runner-up, losing to Matthew Fitzpatrick by a stroke, was in the top 10 two years ago.

Of course the field is loaded for one of the world’s top two or three events. The highest-ranked, healthy players not in the field are LIV players Talor Gooch (35th in the Hawley Ratings) and Harold Varner (45th).

Over the last eight U.S. Opens, the stats most closely correlated with success can loosely be categorized as artistry near the flag — shots gained putting, greens in regulation, and shots gained around the green, in that order. The top three in the field based on those stats and their statistical profiles are Min Woo Lee (top 20 in the PGA, top 10 in TPC), Jon Rahm (four wins this year, including the Masters), and Scheffler.

Adam Scott is tops when considering recent play in comparison with prior form. He’s been in the top 10 three of the last four times out, although nothing special in the previous two majors. Also very sharp recently is Viktor Hovland, winner of the Memorial, second in the PGA, and with three other top-10s this year.

Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Scottie Scheffler -24.5 3
2 Xander Schauffele -11.2 10
3 Patrick Cantlay -10.6 14
4 Rory McIlroy -7.3 2
5 Jon Rahm -5.4 10
6 Viktor Hovland 6.1 19
7 Tyrrell Hatton 11.7 27
8 Cameron Smith 14.8 4
9 Max Homa 18.9 80
10 Brooks Koepka 20.6 17
11 Adam Scott 22.8 92
12 Dustin Johnson 22.9 10
13 Sungjae Im 23.5 108
14 Jordan Spieth 23.6 66
15 Justin Thomas 24.2 152
16 Matthew Fitzpatrick 24.7 17
17 Rickie Fowler 25.7 5
18 Tommy Fleetwood 26.9 5
19 Justin Rose 27.3 80
20 Sam Burns 29.2 32
21 Denny McCarthy 29.7 20
22 Hideki Matsuyama 29.9 32
23 Tony Finau 30.2 32
24 Collin Morikawa 30.4 14
25 Corey Conners 30.7 80
26 Russell Henley 33.0 14
27 Shane Lowry 33.3 20
28 Joaquin Niemann 34.3 32
29 Wyndham Clark 35.6 1
30 Jason Day 36.2 132
31 Patrick Reed 36.8 56
32 Mito Pereira 37.8 66
33 Si Woo Kim 38.2 39
34 Bryson DeChambeau 39.1 20
35 Harris English 39.4 8
36 Keegan Bradley 39.5 108
37 Cameron Young 41.1 32
38 Sahith Theegala 42.6 27
39 Seamus Power 42.8 80
40 Tom Kim 42.8 8
41 Adam Hadwin 43.0 59
42 Gary Woodland 43.5 49
43 Taylor Moore 44.6 66
44 Sepp Straka 45.5 80
45 Cameron Davis 45.7 144
46 Matt Kuchar 45.8 108
47 Kurt Kitayama 46.2 92
48 Eric Cole 46.8 39
49 Nick Taylor 47.1 80
50 Keith Mitchell 47.5 20
51 Brian Harman 48.0 43
52 Andrew Putnam 48.0 43
53 Justin Suh 48.8 27
54 Taylor Montgomery 49.0 108
55 Michael Thorbjornsen 49.1 108
56 Sergio Garcia 49.3 27
57 Chris Kirk 49.7 80
58 Ryan Fox 49.9 43
59 Tom Hoge 49.9 80
60 Billy Horschel 51.1 43
61 Sebastian Munoz 51.5 49
62 Abraham Ancer 52.5 54
63 Sam Bennett 52.8 43
64 Aaron Wise 52.8 141
65 KH Lee 53.9 128
66 JT Poston 54.2 92
67 Min Woo Lee 54.4 5
68 Patrick Rodgers 54.5 32
69 Victor Perez 56.4 144
70 Adam Svensson 56.6 60
71 Lucas Herbert 57.0 92
72 Hayden Buckley 57.1 144
73 Alex Noren 57.2 66
74 Thomas Pieters 57.5 80
75 Kevin Streelman 58.0 49
76 Mac Hughes 58.1 49
77 Adrian Meronk 58.7 66
78 Taylor Pendrith 58.8 92
79 Austin Eckroat 58.9 10
80 Scott Stallings 59.1 92
81 Carlos Ortiz 59.6 132
82 Francesco Molinari 60.7 92
83 Vincent Norrman 61.4 66
84 Padraig Harrington 61.5 27
85 Joel Dahmen 62.1 150
86 Luke List 62.2 108
87 Phil Mickelson 62.9 66
88 Sam Stevens 63.1 43
89 Jordan Smith 64.6 20
90 Nick Hardy 65.5 20
91 Dylan Wu 65.5 32
92 Davis Thompson 67.1 66
93 Romain Langasque 67.6 54
94 Paul Haley 67.8 132
95 Charley Hoffman 68.5 49
96 Stewart Cink 68.9 92
97 Martin Kaymer 69.8 108
98 David Puig 70.2 39
99 Matthieu Pavon 70.2 132
100 Thriston Lawrence 71.4 66
101 Ryan Gerard 71.5 56
102 Ryan Armour 72.1 119
103 Simon Forsstrom 73.7 80
104 Nico Echavarria 73.8 66
105 Hank Lebioda 74.2 156
106 Brent Grant 74.3 108
107 Deon Germishuys 74.8 92
108 Alejandro Del Rey 75.1 119
109 Jens Dantorp 75.4 119
110 Ross Fisher 75.5 92
111 Berry Henson 75.8 141
112 Roger Sloan 76.3 92
113 Wilco Nienaber 76.4 92
114 Paul Barjon 76.4 66
115 David Horsey 77.0 154
116 Ding Wenyi 77.5 132
117 Ryutaro Nagano 77.6 20
118 Ryo Ishikawa 77.8 63
119 Yuto Katsuragawa 78.3 58
120 Gunn Charoenkul 78.5 119
121 Frankie Capan 79.3 144
122 Mac Meissner 79.9 92
123 Jacob Solomon 79.9 60
124 Patrick Cover 80.3 66
125 Alexander Yang 80.8 151
126 Jordan Gumberg 80.8 108
127 Ben Carr 80.9 62
128 Aldrich Potgieter 81.0 64
129 Andrew Svoboda 81.0 66
130 Austen Truslow 81.0 92
131 Barclay Brown 81.0 92
132 Michael Brennan 81.0 132
133 Olin Browne 81.0 119
134 Christian Cavaliere 81.0 132
135 Nick Dunlap 81.0 128
136 Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira 81.0 128
137 JJ Grey 81.0 80
138 Matthew McClean 81.0 144
139 Omar Morales 81.0 132
140 Kyle Mueller 81.0 66
141 David Nyfjall 81.0 119
142 Corey Pereira 81.0 119
143 Gordon Sargent 81.0 39
144 Alex Schaake 81.0 144
145 Jesse Schutte 81.0 119
146 Isaac Simmons 81.0 152
147 Preston Summerhays 81.0 108
148 Brendan Valdez 81.0 154
149 Karl Vilips 81.0 132
Maxwell Moldovan late entry 65
Adam Schenk late entry 81
Emiliano Grillo late entry 95
Bastien Amat late entry 118
Michael Kim late entry 123
Pablo Larrazabal late entry 128
Carson Young late entry 142
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June 19, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 160. The average is 163. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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