I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Patrick Cantlay	0.674
Brian Harman	0.672
Chez Reavie	0.569
Kevin Streelman	0.541
Kevin Kisner	0.496
Rory McIlroy	0.455
Keegan Bradley	0.448
Jason Day	0.432

---

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2591.4
Patrick Cantlay	2	2343.8
Rory McIlroy	3	2203.8
Xander Schauffele	4	2174.8
Jon Rahm	5	2060.5
Viktor Hovland	6	1795.3
Max Homa	9	1585.5
Sungjae Im	10	1556.9

---

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Tyrrell Hatton	7	1675.6
Cameron Smith	8	1634.0
Jordan Spieth	11	1485.3
Matthew Fitzpatrick	12	1474.7

---

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Wyndham Clark	2441.7
Scottie Scheffler	1893.2
Viktor Hovland	1759.3
Rory McIlroy	1704.8
Austin Eckroat	1690.1
Rickie Fowler	1557.1
Adam Schenk	1131.1
Tommy Fleetwood	1121.7

---

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Sungjae Im	-1483.9
Justin Thomas	-1090.8
Cameron Young	-1025.9
Jason Day	-877.8
Matt Kuchar	-811.4
Tom Hoge	-783.7
Aaron Wise	-743.9
Taylor Moore	-734.8

---

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC River Highlands course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.27	Shots gained off the tee
0.16	Shots gained in approach
0.10	Shots gained around the green
0.07	Shots gained putting

---

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	67.87
Rory McIlroy	68.20
Patrick Cantlay	68.34
Jon Rahm	68.41
Tony Finau	68.57
Collin Morikawa	68.60
Kevin Yu	68.63
Viktor Hovland	68.69

---

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Nick Watney	72.1
Max McGreevy	72.0
Kevin Kisner	71.7
Kelly Kraft	71.5
Ryan Brehm	71.2
Richy Werenski	70.9
Cameron Champ	70.9
Doc Redman	70.8

---

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Cromwell CT, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Brandon Wu	Scarsdale NY	75
Keegan Bradley	Woodstock VT	150
Corey Conners	Listowel ON	450
Ryan Armour	Silver Lake OH	450
Justin Lower	Uniontown OH	450
Chesson Hadley	Raleigh NC	525
Ben Griffin	Chapel Hill NC	525
Alex Smalley	Greensboro NC	550

---

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.369
I love this place	0.175
Ooh, that’s hot	0.138
Location, location, location	0.103