19
Jun

Travelers Championship Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Every week the location changes, but when the purse stays the same, the players stay the same too. So again this week, even though they are in Cromwell CT, nearly a six-hour flight and over 2,900 miles from the site of last week’s U.S. Open, we have names like Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, et. al at the top of the list of favorites. It’s the Travelers Championship, another $20 million is on the table, and the big question is whether the players are ready to compete again or if they could use a few more days to decompress.

So rather than once again running thru the credentials of those guys at the top of the list of picks, this time we’ll focus on eight guys who are outside the Hawley Ratings top 20 but showing some kind of upward momentum or other sparkle. They are listed alphabetically.

  • Jason Day – Over the past eight events at TPC River Highlands, the top stats in correlation with success are shots gained off the tee and shots gained in approach. Day is in the top 15 percent in shots gained OTT and top 20 percent in shots gained in approach.
  • Austin Eckroat – Eckroat has been far outplaying his no. 111 ranking in the last month with successive finishes of second (Nelson), 16th (Schwab), 30th (Memorial), and 10th (U.S. Open).
  • Tony Finau – The winner in the Mexico event in late April is in the top 20 percent in shots gained OTT and in the top 5 percent in shots gained in approach.
  • Brian Harman – Has four top-10s in this event in the last five years.
  • Adam Schenk – In his last four appearances, he has two top-10s (Memorial, Schwab) bracketed by missed cuts in the two most recent majors.
  • Sepp Straka – Up-and-down Austrian was 16th in the Memorial and seventh in the PGA.
  • Cameron Young – May bounce back from a sequence of mediocre finishes based on being a good fit for the course (top 10 percent in shots gained OTT, top 25 percent in shots gained in approach).
  • Kevin Yu – Top 5 percent in shots gained OTT, top 15 percent in shots gained in approach.
Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Scottie Scheffler -28.7 4
2 Patrick Cantlay -17.7 4
3 Rory McIlroy -15.6 7
4 Xander Schauffele -9.8 19
5 Jon Rahm 0.7 83
6 Viktor Hovland 2.0 29
7 Max Homa 19.2 68
8 Rickie Fowler 19.6 13
9 Wyndham Clark 21.6 29
10 Tommy Fleetwood 21.8 83
11 Matthew Fitzpatrick 21.9 DNP
12 Sungjae Im 26.7 29
13 Russell Henley 27.7 19
14 Shane Lowry 27.8 19
15 Collin Morikawa 28.9 68
16 Justin Thomas 29.5 9
17 Denny McCarthy 30.5 7
18 Adam Scott 30.6 19
19 Tony Finau 30.7 45
20 Jason Day 31.3 45
21 Hideki Matsuyama 32.9 13
22 Brian Harman 34.9 2
23 Keegan Bradley 36.3 1
24 Corey Conners 36.9 9
25 Tom Kim 37.2 38
26 Harris English 38.5 60
27 Cameron Young 38.8 60
28 Sahith Theegala 39.6 52
29 Si Woo Kim 40.6 127
30 Seamus Power 43.6 68
31 Justin Suh 44.6 56
32 Cameron Davis 44.7 DNP
33 Sepp Straka 44.9 38
34 Kurt Kitayama 45.6 68
35 Andrew Putnam 45.7 45
36 Matt Kuchar 46.2 141
37 Gary Woodland 46.5 33
38 Taylor Moore 47.6 119
39 Mark Hubbard 47.8 83
40 Byeong Hun An 48.5 68
41 Adam Schenk 48.5 83
42 Eric Cole 49.0 24
43 Tom Hoge 49.3 60
44 Austin Eckroat 49.4 24
45 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 49.8 110
46 KH Lee 50.3 98
47 Kevin Kisner 51.0 DNP
48 Billy Horschel 51.2 134
49 Kevin Streelman 51.3 68
50 Chez Reavie 51.6 4
51 Patrick Rodgers 51.6 83
52 Emiliano Grillo 51.9 15
53 Scott Stallings 52.0 127
54 Aaron Rai 52.3 24
55 Beau Hossler 52.4 68
56 JJ Spaun 52.4 98
57 Aaron Wise 53.2 DNP
58 Lee Hodges 53.4 68
59 JT Poston 53.6 68
60 Brendon Todd 53.9 83
61 Davis Riley 53.9 45
62 Sam Bennett 54.0 83
63 Matthew NeSmith 54.7 134
64 CT Pan 54.7 149
65 Stephan Jaeger 54.8 64
66 Alex Smalley 54.9 9
67 Thomas Detry 55.2 83
68 David Lipsky 55.4 56
69 Alex Noren 56.0 DNP
70 Nate Lashley 56.8 110
71 Brandon Wu 57.0 83
72 Hayden Buckley 57.2 83
73 Ben Griffin 57.4 98
74 Adam Svensson 57.6 110
75 Kevin Yu 57.7 49
76 Lucas Herbert 57.8 15
77 Taylor Pendrith 58.1 68
78 SH Kim 58.2 98
79 Michael Kim 58.3 38
80 Doug Ghim 58.8 15
81 Joseph Bramlett 58.9 68
82 Sam Ryder 59.0 98
83 Michael Thorbjornsen 59.1 134
84 Mac Hughes 59.2 WD
85 Harry Hall 59.4 56
86 Ludvig Aberg 59.7 24
87 Robby Shelton 60.0 134
88 Ryan Palmer 60.1 33
89 Joel Dahmen 60.2 151
90 Nick Hardy 60.7 38
91 Luke List 61.1 33
92 Jimmy Walker 61.7 151
93 Carson Young 61.7 15
94 Sam Stevens 61.8 83
95 Francesco Molinari 62.5 119
96 Webb Simpson 62.7 52
97 Patton Kizzire 62.9 127
98 Peter Malnati 62.9 83
99 Vincent Norrman 63.0 83
100 Trey Mullinax 63.0 119
101 Danny Willett 63.5 110
102 Adam Long 63.7 83
103 Erik van Rooyen 63.9 141
104 Andrew Novak 64.2 98
105 Ben Taylor 64.2 110
106 Dylan Wu 64.2 68
107 Garrick Higgo 64.3 145
108 Lanto Griffin 64.4 110
109 Troy Merritt 64.6 119
110 Will Gordon 64.7 145
111 Martin Laird 65.3 98
112 David Lingmerth 65.6 98
113 Callum Tarren 65.7 33
114 Lucas Glover 65.7 119
115 Scott Piercy 65.9 WD
116 Davis Thompson 66.2 68
117 Dylan Frittelli 66.3 DNP
118 Chad Ramey 66.4 38
119 Zach Johnson 66.7 29
120 Tyler Duncan 66.8 110
121 Paul Haley 66.9 127
122 Ben Martin 66.9 63
123 Austin Smotherman 66.9 110
124 Russell Knox 67.0 49
125 Kramer Hickok 67.1 141
126 Charley Hoffman 67.2 83
127 Matt Wallace 67.3 139
128 Stewart Cink 67.4 68
129 Harrison Endycott 67.6 DNP
130 Robert Streb 67.8 68
131 Justin Lower 68.0 98
132 Zac Blair 68.0 2
133 Cameron Champ 68.4 110
134 Ryan Moore 68.5 134
135 Chesson Hadley 68.6 24
136 James Hahn 68.6 119
137 Greyson Sigg 68.7 19
138 Doc Redman 68.8 98
139 Ryan Armour 68.9 DNP
140 MJ Daffue 69.0 DNP
141 Kevin Tway 69.6 52
142 Matthias Schwab 69.7 127
143 Zecheng Dou 69.8 52
144 Richy Werenski 70.4 119
145 Henrik Norlander 70.6 DNP
146 Nico Echavarria 72.8 119
147 Tyson Alexander 73.8 153
148 Kelly Kraft 73.9 38
149 Max McGreevy 74.6 98
150 Brian Gay 74.8 139
151 Nick Watney 74.8 127
152 Jim Herman 75.2 98
153 Ryan Brehm 75.3 127
154 Jason Dufner 75.7 141
155 Andrew Landry 75.8 67
156 Andrew Svoboda 77.9 64
157 JB Holmes 77.9 145
158 Benjamin James 77.9 145
Min Woo Lee late entry 9
Cam Davis late entry 33
Kyle Reifers late entry 42
Matt Fitzpatrick late entry 50
Brett Stegmaier late entry 56
Ryan Blaum late entry 66
Carl Yuan late entry 150
More | Less
June 26, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 103. The average is 163. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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