I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Troy Merritt	0.720
JJ Spaun	0.695
Chris Kirk	0.612
Scott Stallings	0.529
Richy Werenski	0.495
Henrik Norlander	0.473
Cameron Champ	0.465
Matt Wallace	0.456

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Sungjae Im	9	1553.7
Max Homa	10	1540.6
Justin Thomas	11	1529.9
Rickie Fowler	15	1431.8
Tony Finau	18	1339.6
Collin Morikawa	22	1265.6
Hideki Matsuyama	24	1260.8
Keegan Bradley	29	1186.7

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2669.3
Patrick Cantlay	2	2432.2
Rory McIlroy	3	2288.5
Xander Schauffele	4	2191.5

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Austin Eckroat	1690.1
Rickie Fowler	1557.1
Adam Schenk	1131.1
Sepp Straka	1090.9
Mark Hubbard	898.2
Doug Ghim	768.0
Justin Suh	702.3
CT Pan	640.6

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Sungjae Im	-1483.9
Justin Thomas	-1090.8
Tom Hoge	-783.7
Taylor Moore	-734.8
Tony Finau	-732.1
Davis Riley	-726.8
Chris Kirk	-662.9
Ben Griffin	-616.9

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Detroit Golf Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last four years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.20	Shots gained off the tee
0.16	Shots gained putting
0.14	Greens in regulation
0.11	Shots gained around the green

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Nicolai Hojgaard	69.92
Kevin Yu	69.98
Tony Finau	70.10
Sungjae Im	70.27
Hayden Buckley	70.31
Max Homa	70.33
Collin Morikawa	70.35
Tom Kim	70.51

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Nick Watney	73.6
Max McGreevy	73.3
Luke Donald	73.0
Ryan Brehm	72.8
Brian Stuard	72.8
Kelly Kraft	72.7
Webb Simpson	72.7
Robert Streb	72.7

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Detroit, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Ryan Armour	Silver Lake OH	125
Ryan Brehm	Mount Pleasant MI	125
Justin Lower	Uniontown OH	125
Michael Gligic	Kitchener ON	150
Nick Hardy	Northbrook IL	250
Adam Schenk	Vincennes IN	350
Scott Stallings	Knoxville Ten	450
Peter Malnati	Knoxville Ten	450

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.372
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.144
Location, location, location	0.102