I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Ryan Moore	0.654
Patton Kizzire	0.555
Patrick Rodgers	0.499
Zach Johnson	0.483
Scott Brown	0.462
Lucas Glover	0.454
Chesson Hadley	0.419
Adam Long	0.415

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Denny McCarthy	21	1274.8
Russell Henley	22	1273.8
Cameron Young	33	1160.2
Adam Hadwin	39	1051.6
Keith Mitchell	40	1004.5
Taylor Moore	44	950.7
Matt Kuchar	46	931.9
Seamus Power	49	918.8

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2677.0
Patrick Cantlay	2	2437.3
Rory McIlroy	3	2300.2
Xander Schauffele	4	2202.4

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Denny McCarthy	1625.6
Russell Henley	1121.6
Doug Ghim	978.9
Emiliano Grillo	865.4
Eric Cole	863.4
Adam Schenk	760.3
CT Pan	666.2
Chez Reavie	614.2

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Cameron Young	-969.9
Seamus Power	-845.8
Matt Kuchar	-782.0
Taylor Montgomery	-745.2
KH Lee	-694.0
Chris Kirk	-649.5
JT Poston	-606.1
Taylor Moore	-580.6

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Deere Run course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.12	Shots gained in approach
0.11	Shots gained off the tee
0.09	Driving distance
0.07	Driving accuracy

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Kevin Yu	68.29
Cameron Young	68.56
Luke List	68.70
Keith Mitchell	68.78
Will Gordon	68.84
Akshay Bhatia	68.84
Ben Martin	68.85
Sepp Straka	68.88

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Ryan Gerard	70.9
Harry Higgs	70.8
Max McGreevy	70.7
Nick Watney	70.6
Brian Stuard	70.4
Kelly Kraft	70.3
Seung-yul Noh	70.2
Trevor Werbylo	70.1

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Silvis IL, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Nick Hardy	Northbrook IL	150
Brice Garnett	Gallatin Missouri	225
Adam Schenk	Vincennes IN	250
Robert Streb	Shawnee KS	275
Ryan Brehm	Mount Pleasant MI	325
Austin Cook	Jonesboro AR	400
Ryan Armour	Silver Lake OH	475
Justin Lower	Uniontown OH	475

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.373
I love this place	0.179
Ooh, that’s hot	0.141
Location, location, location	0.101