03
Jul

John Deere Classic Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Russell Henley and Denny McCarthy stand out among entries in this week’s John Deere Classic in Silvis IL. They are the two highest-ranked players in the field, they are both coming in with some good momentum in recent months, and both have one career top-10 in the event, McCarthy sixth last year and Henley as runner-up in 2019.

Henley gets the edge on performance in this event, since McCarthy has missed the cut here in 2021 and 2019. Henley is having a strong season, steadily picking up pieces of purses. Other than a missed cut at the PGA, he has not been out of the top 20 since the Palmer in early March, stacking up a fourth-place finish in the Masters and seven other top-20s. He’s also a pretty good fit for the course. McCarthy also has one clunker in there during the first half of 2023, a missed cut at the Schwab, but he boasts two top-10s in his last three appearances and four top-20s since March.

Players with strong games tee-to-green have been most successful here over the past eight years. By that measure, Kevin Yu and Cameron Young look like good fits for the TPC Deere Run course. Yu is in the top 2 percent of players in shots gained off the tee and top quarter in shots gained in approach. Young is in the top 10 percent of players in shots gained off the tee and top quarter in shots gained in approach. Among those showing improved results in recent events are Doug Ghim (three straight top-20s), Emiliano Grillo (won Schwab), and Eric Cole (top 10 in the Canadian and two other top-25s in the last month).

Russell Henley
Russell Henley
Pick Player Power Number Observed Odds Course fit
1 Russell Henley 19.4 12-1 69.0
2 Denny McCarthy 22.5 13-1 69.3
3 Adam Schenk 39.5 30-1 69.3
4 Adam Hadwin 40.6 30-1 69.1
5 Cameron Young 43.1 35-1 68.6
6 Emiliano Grillo 43.1 35-1 68.9
7 Seamus Power 45.0 40-1 69.5
8 Keith Mitchell 45.2 40-1 68.8
9 Eric Cole 46.2 45-1 69.4
10 Taylor Moore 46.7 45-1 69.2
11 Patrick Rodgers 48.0 50-1 69.2
12 Matt Kuchar 48.7 50-1 69.2
13 Nick Taylor 49.5 55-1 69.2
14 JT Poston 50.2 55-1 69.2
15 Lucas Glover 50.4 55-1 69.1
16 Taylor Montgomery 50.4 55-1 69.7
17 Chris Kirk 50.5 60-1 69.2
18 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 51.2 60-1 69.5
19 Alex Smalley 51.5 60-1 69.0
20 Ludvig Aberg 52.5 70-1
21 Michael Kim 52.9 70-1 69.2
22 Chez Reavie 53.6 75-1 69.4
23 Sepp Straka 53.9 75-1 68.9
24 Byeong Hun An 54.1 75-1 69.1
25 Stephan Jaeger 54.1 75-1 69.1
26 Mark Hubbard 54.6 80-1 69.1
27 Sam Ryder 55.0 85-1 69.5
28 CT Pan 55.5 90-1
29 Doug Ghim 56.2 95-1 69.4
30 Adam Svensson 56.4 95-1 69.1
31 Zac Blair 56.5 95-1 69.7
32 Brendon Todd 56.9 100-1 69.6
33 KH Lee 56.9 100-1 69.1
34 Beau Hossler 57.3 100-1 69.6
35 Ryan Moore 57.4 100-1 69.2
36 Ryan Palmer 58.5 100-1 69.0
37 Patton Kizzire 58.7 100-1 69.6
38 Nick Hardy 59.6 100-1 69.0
39 Matthew NeSmith 59.8 100-1 69.2
40 Zach Johnson 60.0 100-1 69.6
41 Kevin Streelman 60.1 100-1 69.4
42 Luke List 60.5 100-1 68.7
43 David Lipsky 60.6 100-1 69.2
44 Brandon Wu 60.8 150-1 69.2
45 SH Kim 60.9 150-1 69.3
46 Dylan Frittelli 61.1 150-1 70.1
47 Peter Malnati 61.2 150-1 70.0
48 Carson Young 61.3 150-1 69.3
49 Chesson Hadley 61.7 150-1 69.3
50 Joel Dahmen 61.8 150-1 69.1
51 Kevin Yu 62.3 150-1 68.3
52 Dylan Wu 62.3 150-1 69.1
53 Michael Thorbjornsen 62.6 150-1
54 Callum Tarren 62.8 150-1 69.4
55 Nate Lashley 63.2 200-1 69.3
56 Robby Shelton 63.5 200-1 69.4
57 Joseph Bramlett 63.7 200-1 69.0
58 Vincent Norrman 64.4 200-1 69.1
59 Trey Mullinax 64.7 200-1 69.5
60 Garrick Higgo 64.7 200-1 69.2
61 Chad Ramey 64.8 200-1 69.8
62 Adam Long 64.9 250-1 69.9
63 Aaron Baddeley 64.9 250-1 69.7
64 Troy Merritt 64.9 250-1 69.8
65 Justin Lower 65.1 250-1 69.6
66 Greyson Sigg 65.3 250-1 69.3
67 Davis Thompson 65.4 250-1 69.2
68 Ben Martin 65.6 250-1 68.9
69 Martin Laird 65.7 250-1 69.7
70 Andrew Novak 65.8 250-1 69.4
71 Webb Simpson 65.9 250-1 69.5
72 Jimmy Walker 66.0 250-1 69.6
73 Carl Yuan 66.2 300-1 69.3
74 Ben Taylor 66.3 300-1 69.5
75 Will Gordon 66.3 300-1 68.8
76 Erik van Rooyen 66.4 300-1 69.2
77 Tyler Duncan 66.4 300-1 69.1
78 David Lingmerth 66.9 300-1 69.7
79 Lanto Griffin 66.9 300-1
80 Scott Piercy 67.0 300-1 69.4
81 MJ Daffue 67.0 300-1 69.2
82 Russell Knox 67.4 350-1 69.6
83 Sam Stevens 67.8 350-1 68.9
84 Zecheng Dou 68.0 350-1 69.3
85 Austin Smotherman 68.1 400-1 69.4
86 Cameron Percy 68.1 400-1 69.4
87 Harry Higgs 68.5 400-1 70.8
88 Harrison Endycott 68.7 400-1 69.8
89 Sean O’Hair 68.7 400-1 69.3
90 Cameron Champ 69.0 400-1 69.2
91 Chris Stroud 69.3 400-1 69.2
92 Kelly Kraft 69.6 500-1 70.3
93 Kramer Hickok 69.7 500-1 69.3
94 Charley Hoffman 69.7 500-1 69.1
95 Kevin Tway 69.8 500-1 69.6
96 Jonathan Byrd 69.8 500-1 70.1
97 James Hahn 69.9 500-1 69.1
98 Doc Redman 70.1 500-1 69.6
99 Matthias Schwab 70.6 600-1 69.9
100 Scott Brown 70.8 600-1
101 Austin Cook 70.8 600-1 69.8
102 Vincent Whaley 70.9 600-1
103 Akshay Bhatia 70.9 600-1 68.8
104 Cody Gribble 71.1 600-1 69.4
105 Paul Haley 71.2 600-1
106 Brice Garnett 71.2 600-1 69.6
107 Robert Streb 71.7 600-1 69.8
108 Kevin Chappell 71.7 600-1 69.4
109 Ryan Armour 71.7 600-1 69.4
110 Richy Werenski 71.7 600-1 69.9
111 Hank Lebioda 71.8 600-1 69.7
112 Ryan Gerard 71.8 600-1 70.9
113 Brian Stuard 71.8 600-1 70.4
114 Satoshi Kodaira 71.8 600-1
115 Henrik Norlander 71.8 600-1 69.6
116 Michael Gligic 72.0 600-1 69.5
117 Matthias Schmid 72.1 600-1 69.3
118 Nick Watney 72.4 800-1 70.6
119 Seung-yul Noh 72.4 800-1 70.2
120 Andrew Landry 72.5 800-1 70.1
121 Martin Trainer 72.7 800-1 70.0
122 Brent Grant 73.3 800-1 69.3
123 Nico Echavarria 73.4 800-1 69.8
124 Brandt Snedeker 73.6 1000-1
125 Estanislao Goya 73.9 1000-1 69.6
126 Tyson Alexander 74.1 1000-1 70.0
127 Brandon Matthews 74.2 1000-1 69.3
128 Augusto Nunez 74.3 1000-1 69.3
129 Kyle Westmoreland 74.6 1000-1 69.4
130 Max McGreevy 74.7 1000-1 70.7
131 Trevor Werbylo 74.8 1000-1 70.1
132 William McGirt 74.9 1000-1
133 Kevin Roy 75.0 1000-1 69.1
134 Scott Harrington 75.1 1000-1 69.6
135 Trevor Cone 75.2 1000-1 69.4
136 Ryan Brehm 75.3 1000-1 70.0
137 Jim Herman 75.5 1000-1 69.6
138 Sung Kang 75.7 1000-1
139 Jason Dufner 75.7 1000-1 69.5
140 Ricky Barnes 76.7 1000-1
141 Wesley Bryan 76.8 1000-1
142 Brian Gay 77.6 1000-1
143 Kyle Stanley 78.1 1000-1
144 Geoff Ogilvy 78.3 1000-1
145 Jonas Blixt 78.3 1000-1
146 Tommy Gainey 78.3 1000-1
147 Grayson Murray 78.4 1000-1
148 Camilo Villegas 79.2 1000-1
149 William Mouw 79.4 1000-1
150 Greg Chalmers 79.9 1000-1
151 Derek Ernst 80.0 1000-1
152 Derek Lamely 80.1 1000-1
153 Gordon Sargent 80.4 1000-1
154 Ross Steelman 81.2 1000-1
155 Marcus Byrd 81.2 1000-1
156 Chad Collins 81.2 1000-1
157 Jay Giannetto 81.2 1000-1
158 Tommy Kuhl 81.2 1000-1
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Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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