17
Jul

151st Open Championship Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Two great choices sit at the top of the list of contenders in the 151st Open Championship this week a bit outside of Liverpool, England. They are Scottie Scheffler, still riding his amazing streak of seven straight finishes in the top five in events featuring the world’s best players, and Rory McIlroy, always a favorite in this event and coming off a win last week in the Genesis Scottish Open. Scheffler’s Hawley Ratings number of 2730 is the highest since Tiger Woods’ heyday of the late ’00s, and his statistical profile marks him as one of the best fits in the field for the typical Open course, demanding precision. McIlroy comes close to matching Scheffler’s recent performance, with six straight top-10s, including the win last week and a runner-up finish in the U.S. Open.

The Royal Liverpool course is only about six miles west of downtown Liverpool, on the banks of the Irish Sea. The typical Open course displays correlations between success and statistical performance in shots gained in approach, sand saves, and shots gained around the green. Players who are the best matches include Spaniard Adrian Otaegui, who is in the top 5 percent of all PGA Tour/ DP World Tour players in shots gained in approach and in the top 1 percent in shots gained around the green. Jordan Smith, from southern England, is in the top 10 to 20 percent in those stats. Then there is Scheffler, not a great sand player but in the top 1 percent in shots gained in approach and top 5 percent in shots gained around the green. Also appearing well-suited to the course are Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, and Tommy Fleetwood.

Players who are in-step with Scheffler and McIlroy as measured by recent performance include Rickie Fowler, Denny McCarthy, Min Woo Lee, and Wyndham Clark. Players from a little farther down the rankings who stand out from the course-sit or recent-performance view include Alexander Bjork, Alejandro Canizares, Ryan Fox, Romain Langasque, and Andrew Putnam.

Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Scottie Scheffler -28.6 23
2 Rory McIlroy -27.8 6
3 Patrick Cantlay -13.8 33
4 Xander Schauffele -6.2 17
5 Jon Rahm 4.7 2
6 Tyrrell Hatton 8.5 20
7 Viktor Hovland 9.1 13
8 Cameron Smith 10.1 33
9 Rickie Fowler 11.7 23
10 Jordan Spieth 16.3 23
11 Tommy Fleetwood 17.4 10
12 Dustin Johnson 17.9 146
13 Shane Lowry 23.0 108
14 Denny McCarthy 23.6 140
15 Brooks Koepka 23.8 64
16 Max Homa 25.9 10
17 Collin Morikawa 27.8 77
18 Matt Fitzpatrick 27.9 41
19 Tony Finau 28.5 92
20 Sungjae Im 28.7 20
21 Sam Burns 29.0 92
22 Adam Scott 29.7 33
23 Wyndham Clark 30.5 33
24 Russell Henley 30.6 108
25 Justin Thomas 32.3 135
26 Hideki Matsuyama 33.2 13
27 Brian Harman 33.8 1
28 Justin Rose 33.8 92
29 Corey Conners 34.7 52
30 Joaquin Niemann 35.5 85
31 Talor Gooch 36.2 108
32 Keegan Bradley 36.6 77
33 Patrick Reed 37.8 33
34 Min Woo Lee 38.6 41
35 Bryson DeChambeau 39.2 60
36 Tom Kim 39.4 2
37 Jason Day 40.0 2
38 Si Woo Kim 42.9 108
39 Sahith Theegala 43.9 85
40 Harris English 45.2 85
41 Ryan Fox 45.7 52
42 Andrew Putnam 48.3 55
43 Seamus Power 48.6 77
44 Taylor Moore 48.7 77
45 Chris Kirk 48.9 92
46 Louis Oosthuizen 49.2 23
47 Gary Woodland 49.8 55
48 Adam Schenk 50.9 140
49 JT Poston 51.6 41
50 Abraham Ancer 52.1 49
51 Emiliano Grillo 52.4 6
52 Sepp Straka 52.7 2
53 Nick Taylor 52.9 92
54 Kurt Kitayama 53.6 60
55 Tom Hoge 53.7 85
56 Brendon Todd 54.1 49
57 Alex Noren 54.2 23
58 Branden Grace 54.5 129
59 Billy Horschel 54.7 92
60 Davis Riley 55.2 92
61 Lucas Herbert 56.1 85
62 Thomas Pieters 56.5 71
63 Robert MacIntyre 56.8 71
64 Padraig Harrington 57.1 64
65 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 57.1 49
66 Lee Hodges 57.2 135
67 Ben Griffin 57.9 77
68 Francesco Molinari 57.9 92
69 KH Lee 58.8 92
70 Richard Bland 59.1 33
71 Thomas Detry 59.2 13
72 Henrik Stenson 60.1 13
73 Jordan Smith 60.2 41
74 Alexander Bjork 60.7 41
75 Adrian Meronk 61.4 23
76 Scott Stallings 62.0 60
77 Michael Kim 62.2 92
78 Rasmus Hojgaard 62.8 108
79 Danny Willett 63.3 68
80 Victor Perez 63.7 41
81 Zach Johnson 64.1 55
82 Charl Schwartzel 64.5 108
83 Phil Mickelson 65.0 125
84 Thorbjorn Olesen 65.4 120
85 Laurie Canter 66.1 17
86 Romain Langasque 66.2 33
87 Yannik Paul 66.3 85
88 Trey Mullinax 66.5 92
89 Adrian Otaegui 67.0 55
90 Ewen Ferguson 67.6 108
91 Joost Luiten 67.7 71
92 Stewart Cink 68.4 23
93 Matt Wallace 68.7 92
94 Antoine Rozner 69.4 20
95 Daniel Hillier 69.4 125
96 Pablo Larrazabal 69.5 77
97 Richie Ramsay 69.8 64
98 Marcel Siem 69.9 41
99 Jorge Campillo 70.1 148
100 Matthew Jordan 70.4 10
101 Matthew Southgate 70.6 23
102 Thriston Lawrence 70.7 74
103 Adri Arnaus 71.0 155
104 Guido Migliozzi 71.6 64
105 Connor Syme 71.6 108
106 Dan Bradbury 71.8 108
107 Callum Shinkwin 72.3 129
108 Takumi Kanaya 72.4 135
109 Kalle Samooja 72.4 92
110 Travis Smyth 72.6 120
111 Shubhankar Sharma 73.1 8
112 Sami Valimaki 73.3 68
113 Keita Nakajima 73.3 92
114 Rikuya Hoshino 73.4 60
115 Hurly Long 73.6 41
116 Jazz Janewattananond 73.7 156
117 Oliver Wilson 74.3 33
118 Alex Fitzpatrick 74.4 17
119 Bi-o Kim 74.4 92
120 David Micheluzzi 74.4 129
121 Alejandro Canizares 74.6 140
122 Nacho Elvira 75.1 108
123 Ockie Strydom 75.5 108
124 Gunner Wiebe 75.9 153
125 Marc Warren 75.9 135
126 Hiroshi Iwata 76.6 148
127 Kazuki Higa 76.8 92
128 Oliver Farr 78.8 140
129 Seung-su Han 79.2 120
130 Taiga Semikawa 79.5 129
131 Kensei Hirata 79.9 148
132 Martin Rohwer 80.1 146
133 Zack Fischer 80.2 76
134 Kyung-nam Kang 80.4 77
135 Ernie Els 80.6 129
136 Connor McKinney 80.6 135
137 Haydn Barron 80.7 125
138 Brandon Robinson Thompson 80.8 59
139 Darren Clarke 80.9 120
140 Taichi Kho 80.9 154
141 Kazuki Yasumori 80.9 77
142 Marco Penge 80.9 120
143 Kyle Barker 80.9 148
144 Harrison Crowe 80.9 148
145 Jose Luis Ballester Barrio 81.0 85
146 Tiger Christensen 81.0 125
147 John Daly 81.0 140
148 Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira 81.0 108
149 Christo Lamprecht 81.0 74
150 Alex Maguire 81.0 129
151 Graeme Robertson 81.0 140
152 Michael Stewart 81.0 52
Cameron Young late entry 8
Nicolai Hojgaard late entry 24
Byeong Hun An late entry 28
David Lingmerth late entry 70
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July 24, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 104. The average is 165. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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