I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jordan Spieth	0.899
Tony Finau	0.748
Tommy Fleetwood	0.729
Rory McIlroy	0.638
Xander Schauffele	0.636
Dustin Johnson	0.594
Brooks Koepka	0.568
Shane Lowry	0.562

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2730.8
Rory McIlroy	2	2393.3
Patrick Cantlay	3	2353.2
Xander Schauffele	4	2162.0
Jon Rahm	5	1984.5
Viktor Hovland	6	1787.4
Tyrrell Hatton	7	1750.7
Cameron Smith	8	1623.9

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Will Zalatoris	11	1499.3
Daniel Berger	25	1244.2
Cameron Young	30	1201.3
Adam Hadwin	39	1024.2

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Rickie Fowler	1988.8
Denny McCarthy	1899.5
Scottie Scheffler	1644.5
Rory McIlroy	1370.9
Min Woo Lee	1333.3
Wyndham Clark	1066.3
Patrick Cantlay	972.5
Russell Henley	971.8

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Jason Day	-1119.9
Tony Finau	-993.9
Justin Thomas	-958.5
Tom Hoge	-828.5
Max Homa	-751.7
Kurt Kitayama	-711.1
Sungjae Im	-678.4
KH Lee	-667.5

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the typical Open Championship course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.19	Shots gained in approach
0.14	Sand saves
0.12	Shots gained around the green
0.09	Driving accuracy

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Adrian Otaegui	70.18
Justin Rose	70.58
Alejandro Canizares	70.72
Jordan Smith	71.05
Scottie Scheffler	71.06
Collin Morikawa	71.08
Tony Finau	71.12
Tommy Fleetwood	71.14

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Lucas Herbert	74.2
Guido Migliozzi	74.1
Callum Shinkwin	73.9
Marc Warren	73.8
Victor Perez	73.7
Gunner Wiebe	73.7
Trey Mullinax	73.5
Stewart Cink	73.5

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and the Hoylake, Englan, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Tommy Fleetwood	Southport, England	19
Danny Willett	Sheffield, England	75
Rory McIlroy	Holywood, Northern Ireland	150
Jordan Smith	Chippenham, Wiltshire, England	150
Laurie Canter	Bath, England	150
Tyrrell Hatton	Marlow, Buckinghamshire, England	150
Callum Shinkwin		175
Ewen Ferguson		175

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.373
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.142
Location, location, location	0.099