24
Jul

3M Open Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

It is getting very close to the end of the PGA Tour regular season – two events to go – and the field in this week’s 3M Open in Blaine MN reflects pressure on the players to finish within the top 70 qualifying spots for the FedEx Cup playoffs. Based on Monday morning’s FedEx Cup points standings, of 45 players hovering around that cutoff, i.e. of those ranked between 52nd and 96th, all but four are in the 3M field.

Higher on the list, of those between no. 1 and no. 51, only 13 are in the field. Others are returning from Liverpool and/ or resting up. Tony Finau, who has played this event in each of the four years it has been in existence, is a lukewarm favorite. He won the event last year, was in the top 10 three years back, and made the cut both other years. He’s also a good fit for the TPC Twin Cities course. The down-side is that he ranks dead last in the field in a statistic that measures his performance in the last four times out vs. his overall Hawley Ratings number. He’s missed the cut in four of his last six appearances, including a 92nd-place finish in last week’s Open Championship.

Sungjae Im, 20th in Liverpool, is the top-ranked player in the field at no. 10. He had a nice run of finishes last spring but has been up and down since then.

The sun has been shining a lot brighter for numerous others in the field, including Aaron Rai, Nicolai Hojgaard, Lucas Glover, and Sepp Straka. Four-time international winner Rai has top-10s in the Rocket and Canadian over the last two months. Hojgaard, the 22-year-old native of Denmark, has two PGA Tour top-10s this year (Scottish, Puntacana) and other solid finishes in widely scattered places such as Detroit, Liverpool, Mexico, Rome, and San Antonio. Glover comes in off three straight top-10s (Barbasol, Deere, Rocket). Austrian native and Alabama resident Straka was runner-up in the Open and won the Deere in his last two appearances.

Shots gained in approach, scrambling, and driving distance are the three stats most closely associated with success on this course.


Tony Finau
Pick Player Power Number Observed Odds Course fit
1 Tony Finau 19.9 15-1 68.9
2 Sungjae Im 20.3 15-1 69.9
3 Hideki Matsuyama 29.7 22-1 69.4
4 Cameron Young 32.9 25-1 69.7
5 Adam Hadwin 33.0 25-1 69.9
6 Emiliano Grillo 33.1 25-1 70.1
7 Justin Thomas 35.4 25-1 70.0
8 Sepp Straka 42.5 40-1 70.2
9 JT Poston 44.4 45-1 70.9
10 Peter Kuest 45.0 45-1
11 Sahith Theegala 45.1 45-1 70.5
12 Ludvig Aberg 45.8 50-1
13 Keith Mitchell 47.7 55-1 70.3
14 Cam Davis 47.8 55-1 69.8
15 Ryan Fox 48.6 60-1
16 Aaron Rai 49.0 60-1 70.2
17 Tom Hoge 49.4 65-1 69.9
18 Gary Woodland 49.6 65-1 69.3
19 Matt Kuchar 49.7 65-1 69.9
20 Stephan Jaeger 50.8 70-1 69.9
21 Alex Noren 52.1 80-1 70.5
22 Eric Cole 52.7 80-1 69.9
23 Mark Hubbard 52.9 85-1 70.1
24 Taylor Montgomery 53.2 85-1 70.9
25 Chez Reavie 53.5 85-1 70.7
26 Justin Suh 54.2 95-1 71.1
27 Beau Hossler 54.4 95-1 70.8
28 JJ Spaun 54.4 95-1 69.7
29 Patrick Rodgers 55.5 100-1 70.1
30 Doug Ghim 55.7 100-1 70.3
31 Lucas Glover 55.8 100-1 70.2
32 Austin Eckroat 56.3 100-1 69.9
33 Nicolai Hojgaard 56.4 100-1 69.5
34 Billy Horschel 56.7 100-1 71.7
35 Ben Griffin 56.8 100-1 70.3
36 Taylor Pendrith 57.7 100-1 70.5
37 KH Lee 57.7 100-1 70.6
38 CT Pan 57.8 100-1
39 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 57.9 100-1 70.6
40 Adam Svensson 58.0 100-1 70.4
41 Lee Hodges 58.0 100-1 70.2
42 Nick Hardy 58.4 100-1 70.3
43 Sam Bennett 59.1 100-1
44 Zac Blair 59.8 150-1 71.3
45 Matthew NeSmith 59.8 150-1 70.8
46 Troy Merritt 60.6 150-1 71.3
47 Kevin Yu 60.6 150-1 69.5
48 Adam Long 60.9 150-1 71.8
49 Nate Lashley 61.0 150-1 70.5
50 Sam Ryder 61.1 150-1 70.5
51 Garrick Higgo 61.1 150-1 70.5
52 Cameron Champ 61.2 150-1 71.1
53 Greyson Sigg 61.3 150-1 70.5
54 Vincent Norrman 61.4 150-1 70.3
55 Brandon Wu 61.5 150-1 70.8
56 David Lingmerth 61.8 150-1 71.8
57 Mac Hughes 62.5 200-1 70.8
58 Ryan Palmer 62.6 200-1 70.4
59 Luke List 62.7 200-1 70.1
60 Michael Kim 62.7 200-1 70.2
61 Carson Young 63.1 200-1 70.8
62 Peter Malnati 63.2 200-1 71.2
63 Chesson Hadley 63.2 200-1 70.4
64 David Lipsky 63.3 200-1 70.9
65 Joel Dahmen 63.6 250-1 71.0
66 Robby Shelton 64.0 250-1 70.5
67 Callum Tarren 64.2 250-1 70.4
68 Scott Piercy 64.6 250-1 70.3
69 Davis Thompson 64.6 250-1 70.6
70 Chad Ramey 64.6 250-1 71.5
71 Kevin Streelman 64.7 250-1 70.9
72 SH Kim 65.2 300-1 70.3
73 Harry Hall 65.3 300-1 71.1
74 Patton Kizzire 65.3 300-1 70.8
75 MJ Daffue 65.4 300-1 70.6
76 Justin Lower 65.6 300-1 71.0
77 Will Gordon 65.7 300-1 70.3
78 Jimmy Walker 65.8 300-1 70.5
79 Stewart Cink 66.1 350-1 71.1
80 Trey Mullinax 66.2 350-1 70.7
81 Aaron Baddeley 66.4 350-1 70.9
82 Akshay Bhatia 66.7 350-1 70.0
83 Dylan Wu 66.7 350-1 70.3
84 Erik van Rooyen 67.0 400-1 71.2
85 Lanto Griffin 67.3 400-1
86 Cameron Percy 67.5 400-1 70.6
87 Ben Taylor 67.5 400-1 70.7
88 Andrew Novak 67.6 400-1 70.1
89 Russell Knox 67.7 400-1 71.1
90 Dylan Frittelli 67.9 400-1 71.6
91 James Hahn 68.1 400-1 71.3
92 Ben Martin 68.3 400-1 70.2
93 Brice Garnett 68.3 400-1 71.4
94 Matt Wallace 68.7 500-1 70.6
95 Zecheng Dou 68.8 500-1 70.8
96 Ryan Gerard 68.8 500-1 70.9
97 Martin Laird 69.3 500-1 71.5
98 Carl Yuan 69.3 500-1 70.6
99 Tyler Duncan 69.4 500-1 71.0
100 Harry Higgs 69.6 600-1 72.0
101 Austin Smotherman 69.8 600-1 70.8
102 Sam Stevens 70.0 600-1 70.1
103 Charley Hoffman 70.2 600-1 69.9
104 Ryan Armour 70.3 600-1 71.6
105 Doc Redman 70.5 600-1 72.0
106 Harrison Endycott 70.5 600-1 71.2
107 Ryan Moore 70.6 600-1 70.7
108 Robert Streb 70.7 600-1 71.4
109 Kramer Hickok 70.7 600-1 70.7
110 Michael Gligic 71.0 600-1 71.6
111 Hank Lebioda 71.2 600-1 71.6
112 Richy Werenski 71.2 600-1 72.0
113 Matthias Schwab 71.2 600-1 71.7
114 Sean O’Hair 71.2 800-1 70.8
115 Jonathan Byrd 71.3 800-1 71.1
116 Cody Gribble 71.4 800-1 70.6
117 Grayson Murray 71.6 800-1
118 Kevin Tway 71.7 800-1 70.5
119 Kelly Kraft 71.8 800-1 72.4
120 Satoshi Kodaira 71.8 800-1
121 Paul Haley 72.2 800-1
122 Henrik Norlander 72.5 800-1 70.9
123 Jason Dufner 72.7 1000-1 71.0
124 Estanislao Goya 72.7 1000-1 71.0
125 Matthias Schmid 72.7 1000-1 70.8
126 Brian Stuard 72.8 1000-1 72.6
127 Martin Trainer 73.2 1000-1 71.6
128 Kevin Chappell 73.3 1000-1 70.4
129 Seung-yul Noh 73.4 1000-1 71.6
130 Trevor Cone 73.6 1000-1 71.0
131 Kevin Roy 73.6 1000-1 70.2
132 Nick Watney 73.7 1000-1 72.3
133 Austin Cook 74.0 1000-1 71.4
134 Brent Grant 74.2 1000-1 71.4
135 Chris Stroud 74.2 1000-1 70.5
136 Nico Echavarria 74.3 1000-1 71.5
137 Brandt Snedeker 74.6 1000-1
138 Tyson Alexander 74.6 1000-1 71.9
139 Ryan Brehm 74.7 1000-1 72.0
140 Augusto Nunez 74.9 1000-1 70.1
141 Brandon Matthews 75.1 1000-1 71.0
142 Kyle Westmoreland 75.5 1000-1 71.3
143 Jonas Blixt 75.7 1000-1
144 Max McGreevy 75.7 1000-1 73.5
145 Scott Harrington 75.8 1000-1 71.2
146 Trevor Werbylo 75.9 1000-1 71.7
147 Sung Kang 76.2 1000-1
148 Jim Herman 76.3 1000-1 71.9
149 Andrew Landry 77.0 1000-1 72.4
150 Brian Gay 77.3 1000-1
151 Wesley Bryan 77.6 1000-1
152 Frankie Capan 79.2 1000-1
153 Chad Collins 81.0 1000-1
154 Derek Hitchner 81.0 1000-1
155 Thomas Lehman 81.0 1000-1
156 Eric Rolland 81.0 1000-1
157 Preston Summerhays 81.0 1000-1
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Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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