I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jon Rahm	0.814
Patrick Cantlay	0.782
Rory McIlroy	0.781
Tony Finau	0.751
Xander Schauffele	0.634
Hideki Matsuyama	0.629
Corey Conners	0.548
Sungjae Im	0.503

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2667.0
Rory McIlroy	2	2546.9
Patrick Cantlay	3	2381.1
Xander Schauffele	4	2178.9
Jon Rahm	5	2035.5
Viktor Hovland	6	1858.9
Tyrrell Hatton	7	1735.7
Max Homa	8	1705.0

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Cameron Smith	10	1558.3
Will Zalatoris	11	1545.8
Justin Thomas	18	1347.8
Dustin Johnson	23	1284.5

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Byeong Hun An	1607.8
Rory McIlroy	1531.6
Lucas Glover	1525.5
Tommy Fleetwood	1506.1
Brian Harman	1343.0
Corey Conners	1232.3
Cam Davis	1177.0
Max Homa	1168.4

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Matt Fitzpatrick	-1180.6
Tony Finau	-963.4
Denny McCarthy	-927.4
Sahith Theegala	-732.9
Adam Hadwin	-726.6
Seamus Power	-684.2
Kurt Kitayama	-682.2
Harris English	-642.3

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Olympia Fields course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. The only event on this course with contributing data is the 2003 U.S. Open. The minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.27	Scrambling
0.08	Sand saves
0.06	Greens in regulation
0.02	Putts per GIR

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Jason Day	70.15
Brian Harman	70.15
Scottie Scheffler	70.36
Hideki Matsuyama	70.44
Byeong Hun An	70.46
Tommy Fleetwood	70.47
Denny McCarthy	70.54
Eric Cole	70.56

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Cameron Young	71.9
Sepp Straka	71.8
Kurt Kitayama	71.7
Sahith Theegala	71.5
Corey Conners	71.5
Keegan Bradley	71.5
Tom Hoge	71.4
Collin Morikawa	71.4

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.374
I love this place	0.174
Ooh, that’s hot	0.138
Location, location, location	0.055