21
Aug

Tour Championship Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

There have been two near-constants on the PGA Tour over the last three months – you can pretty much count on Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler being near the top. Starting with the mid-May PGA Championship, the season’s second major, McIlroy has been in the top 10 nine straight times. Scheffler, playing almost exactly the same schedule, has done it seven out of nine times. Head-to-head, Scheffler has finished better than McIlroy six times, including TPC win; McIlroy better than Scheffler three times, including the Scottish win.

Scheffler has the better Hawley Ratings number and has been no. 1 for the last 14 weeks. Scheffler is a better fit for the course, although McIlroy has a better record in this event. McIlroy has played better recently. Edge: McIlroy.

When they get to this event, with a purse of nearly $60 million at stake, everyone is doing things right or has done things right. Let’s focus on fit for the course and recent play. Over the last eight years of this event on this course, the statistics most closely associated with success have been driving accuracy, shots gained off the tee, and shots gained around the green. Based on full-season statistics, Scheffler’s game is most closely aligned with those stats. Only three players are within a stroke of him based on their profiles – Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, and Russell Henley, in that order.

McIlroy is easily the leader in terms of recent results – fourth in the BMW, third in the FedEx, sixth in the Open Championship, and the Scottish win. Looking at the last four results, the next loudest locomotives coming in are Max Homa, Tom Kim, Brian Harman, and last week’s winner, Viktor Hovland. Guys from the bottom half of the field who would appear to have a shot at outplaying their FedEx points rank include Sungjae Im, Tyrrell Hatton, and Tom Kim.

Good luck picking ‘em. It’s been another fun season.

Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Rory McIlroy -36.5 4
2 Scottie Scheffler -24.5 8
3 Xander Schauffele -12.3 2
4 Patrick Cantlay -8.5 5
5 Viktor Hovland 3.2 1
6 Jon Rahm 4.5 19
7 Max Homa 8.3 11
8 Sungjae Im 13.9 24
9 Tommy Fleetwood 15.2 7
10 Tyrrell Hatton 18.0 17
11 Tom Kim 22.4 20
12 Russell Henley 22.5 14
13 Jordan Spieth 23.3 26
14 Brian Harman 23.6 23
15 Corey Conners 25.9 26
16 Rickie Fowler 27.1 16
17 Collin Morikawa 28.8 6
18 Matt Fitzpatrick 31.4 11
19 Tony Finau 32.1 20
20 Sam Burns 32.2 13
21 Jason Day 34.8 28
22 Wyndham Clark 34.9 3
23 Emiliano Grillo 39.6 30
24 Keegan Bradley 41.4 10
25 Taylor Moore 43.9 29
26 Si Woo Kim 45.1 20
27 Lucas Glover 46.7 18
28 Sepp Straka 48.9 15
29 Nick Taylor 51.0 24
30 Adam Schenk 52.2 9
More | Less
Aug. 31, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 229. The average is 167. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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