I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Chez Reavie	0.525
Brian Stuard	0.474
Max Homa	0.432
Mark Hubbard	0.430
Beau Hossler	0.397
Sahith Theegala	0.392
Cameron Percy	0.377
Aaron Baddeley	0.368

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Max Homa	7	1708.4
Justin Thomas	19	1332.5
Cam Davis	34	1113.3
Sahith Theegala	37	1080.2
Andrew Putnam	54	880.8
Matt Kuchar	58	846.2
Eric Cole	64	785.9
Taylor Montgomery	66	775.0

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2679.3
Rory McIlroy	2	2538.2
Patrick Cantlay	3	2355.7
Xander Schauffele	4	2231.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Max Homa	1463.6
Cam Davis	1212.7
Garrick Higgo	885.6
Beau Hossler	701.5
Stephan Jaeger	536.4
Matthias Schmid	449.5
Jason Dufner	416.9
Davis Thompson	400.9

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Justin Thomas	-1031.6
Taylor Montgomery	-688.4
Matt Kuchar	-634.9
KH Lee	-623.0
Peter Kuest	-593.6
Kevin Kisner	-539.9
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	-534.0
Austin Eckroat	-529.6

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Silverado course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Jason Day	70.15
Brian Harman	70.15
Scottie Scheffler	70.36
Hideki Matsuyama	70.44
Byeong Hun An	70.46
Tommy Fleetwood	70.47
Denny McCarthy	70.54
Eric Cole	70.56

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Cameron Young	71.9
Sepp Straka	71.8
Kurt Kitayama	71.7
Sahith Theegala	71.5
Corey Conners	71.5
Keegan Bradley	71.5
Tom Hoge	71.4
Collin Morikawa	71.4

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Napa CA, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Cameron Champ	Sacramento CA	43
Martin Trainer	Palo Alto CA	50
Justin Suh	Los Angeles Ca	375
JJ Spaun	San Dimas CA	375
Sahith Theegala	Chino Hills CA	400
Scott Piercy	Las Vegas NV	425
Harry Hall	Las Vegas NV	425
Charley Hoffman	Las Vegas NV	425
Nick Watney	Las Vegas NV	425
Taylor Montgomery	Las Vegas NV	425
Doug Ghim	Las Vegas NV	425
David Lipsky	Las Vegas NV	425

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.383
I love this place	0.181
Ooh, that’s hot	0.140
Location, location, location	0.053