I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Webb Simpson	0.518
Kevin Kisner	0.501
Zach Johnson	0.487
Brian Harman	0.480
Keith Mitchell	0.432
Denny McCarthy	0.390
Corey Conners	0.385
Russell Knox	0.364

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Brian Harman	16	1400.3
Russell Henley	17	1369.1
Corey Conners	19	1302.3
Denny McCarthy	25	1236.1
Cameron Young	26	1222.1
Eric Cole	46	921.3
Si Woo Kim	48	905.7
Harris English	50	899.2

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2601.6
Rory McIlroy	2	2537.7
Patrick Cantlay	3	2312.7
Xander Schauffele	4	2128.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Russell Henley	1311.2
Eric Cole	1166.9
Brian Harman	838.0
Corey Conners	735.6
Camilo Villegas	695.9
Chesson Hadley	553.9
Luke List	528.1
Taylor Pendrith	508.8

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Denny McCarthy	-952.3
Maverick McNealy	-632.4
Cameron Young	-601.5
Hayden Buckley	-515.6
Ben Griffin	-472.0
Kevin Kisner	-465.0
Thomas Detry	-461.6
Keith Mitchell	-457.0

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Sea Island GC courses, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on these courses within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.18	Driving accuracy
0.14	Scrambling
0.12	Driving distance
0.09	Putts per GIR

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Brian Harman	67.93
Brendon Todd	68.02
Russell Henley	68.08
Si Woo Kim	68.25
Denny McCarthy	68.39
Aaron Baddeley	68.44
Taylor Montgomery	68.47
Matt Kuchar	68.49

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Kyle Westmoreland	70.4
Nick Watney	70.3
Ryan Brehm	70.2
Michael Gligic	70.2
Luke List	70.2
Dylan Frittelli	70.0
Cameron Champ	70.0
Brent Grant	69.9

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and St. Simons Island GA, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Matt Kuchar	St. Simons Island GA	1
Zach Johnson	St. Simons Island GA	1
Keith Mitchell	St. Simons Island GA	1
Davis Thompson	St. Simons Island GA	1
Will Gordon	St. Simons Island GA	1
Greyson Sigg	St. Simons Island GA	1
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island GA	1
Sam Ryder	Atlantic Beach FL	50

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.378
I love this place	0.180
Ooh, that’s hot	0.140
Location, location, location	0.053