I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Sam Burns	0.835
Justin Thomas	0.642
Scott Stallings	0.461
Davis Riley	0.425
Adam Schenk	0.419
Kevin Streelman	0.419
Webb Simpson	0.418
Patton Kizzire	0.389

---

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Xander Schauffele	2	2324.0
Patrick Cantlay	4	2080.0
Jordan Spieth	11	1435.4
Sam Burns	12	1402.8
Brian Harman	14	1389.1
Justin Thomas	15	1385.7
Sungjae Im	18	1369.3
Tony Finau	22	1293.9

---

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2879.8
Rory McIlroy	3	2150.6
Jon Rahm	5	1777.8
Viktor Hovland	6	1709.4

---

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Doug Ghim	1480.1
Maverick McNealy	1446.4
Andrew Novak	1421.1
Nick Taylor	1143.8
Peter Malnati	766.9
Sam Burns	529.5
Keith Mitchell	526.9
Lee Hodges	521.6

---

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Tom Kim	-956.4
Aaron Wise	-684.1
Matt Kuchar	-665.8
JJ Spaun	-622.7
Alex Smalley	-597.2
Ben Griffin	-590.1
Justin Suh	-586.9
Jordan Spieth	-581.9

---

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on the Innisbrook Resort Copperhead course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.32	Driving accuracy
0.16	Driving distance
0.10	Shots gained in approach
0.03	Shots gained off the tee

---

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Roger Sloan	69.87
Patton Kizzire	70.22
Billy Horschel	70.55
Aaron Rai	70.55
Ryan Palmer	70.57
Zac Blair	70.70
Carl Yuan	71.01
Andrew Putnam	71.05

---

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Mac Meissner	74.4
Ryan Brehm	73.8
Stewart Cink	73.8
Callum Tarren	73.7
Ryan McCormick	73.7
Joe Highsmith	73.5
Wilson Furr	73.4
Jorge Campillo	73.4

---

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Palm Harbor FL, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Alejandro Tosti	Gainesville, FL	100
Nicholas Lindheim	Satellite Beach, FL	125
Hayden Buckley	Naples FL	150
Ben Kohles	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150
Adrien Dumont de Chassart	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150
Nico Echavarria	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150
Tyler Duncan	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150

---

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.378
I love this place	0.180
Ooh, that’s hot	0.140
Location, location, location	0.053