I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Matt Kuchar	0.834
Corey Conners	0.730
Charley Hoffman	0.568
Lucas Glover	0.552
JJ Spaun	0.490
Kevin Streelman	0.490
Rickie Fowler	0.479
Brandt Snedeker	0.455

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Rory McIlroy	3	2150.6
Ludvig Aberg	7	1618.0
Max Homa	8	1591.9
Jordan Spieth	11	1379.2
Tommy Fleetwood	12	1372.9
Hideki Matsuyama	15	1351.8
Brian Harman	16	1343.2
Russell Henley	19	1309.1

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2905.1
Xander Schauffele	2	2346.4
Patrick Cantlay	4	2078.4
Jon Rahm	5	1781.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Hideki Matsuyama	1860.1
Ludvig Aberg	1292.7
Billy Horschel	1193.9
Harris English	1180.7
Alex Noren	1122.4
Matthias Schmid	990.7
Erik van Rooyen	848.8
KH Lee	805.9

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Jordan Spieth	-1183.7
Tom Kim	-947.7
Beau Hossler	-730.1
Denny McCarthy	-721.7
Adam Svensson	-657.6
Rickie Fowler	-608.8
Patrick Rodgers	-584.3
Alex Smalley	-570.2

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC San Antonio Oaks course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.13	Putts per GIR
0.13	Shots gained in approach
0.04	Shots gained off the tee
0.03	Driving accuracy

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Corey Conners	72.35
Keith Mitchell	72.36
Ryan Moore	72.46
Joel Dahmen	72.51
Aaron Rai	72.57
Austin Eckroat	72.63
Victor Perez	72.66
Akshay Bhatia	72.67

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Chan Kim	73.2
Benjamin Silverman	73.1
Matt Fitzpatrick	73.1
Parker Coody	73.0
Tom Whitney	73.0
Max Greyserman	73.0
Kevin Yu	73.0
Byeong Hun An	73.0

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and San Antonio, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Jimmy Walker	Boerne, TX	21
Beau Hossler	Austin, TX	50
Chandler Phillips	College Station, TX	150
Mark Hubbard	The Woodlands, TX	175
Paul Barjon	Fort Worth TX	175
Jhonattan Vegas	Houston, TX	175
Cameron Champ	Houston, TX	175
Michael Kim	Houston, TX	175

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.370
I love this place	0.176
Ooh, that’s hot	0.141
Location, location, location	0.053