I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jon Rahm	0.829
Hideki Matsuyama	0.794
Patrick Reed	0.711
Cameron Smith	0.687
Jordan Spieth	0.664
Justin Thomas	0.662
Scottie Scheffler	0.608
Tony Finau	0.604

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2920.5
Xander Schauffele	2	2346.9
Rory McIlroy	3	2204.2
Patrick Cantlay	4	2075.0
Jon Rahm	5	1764.3
Viktor Hovland	6	1731.0
Ludvig Aberg	7	1647.0
Max Homa	8	1579.1

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Tom Hoge	44	998.3
Andrew Putnam	47	959.8
Brendon Todd	53	931.2
Alex Noren	54	927.5

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Hideki Matsuyama	2097.3
Shane Lowry	1422.2
Akshay Bhatia	1070.6
Peter Malnati	989.0
Xander Schauffele	887.7
Wyndham Clark	874.8
Harris English	856.1
Matt Fitzpatrick	816.7

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Viktor Hovland	-1213.3
Tom Kim	-1124.2
Justin Thomas	-979.2
Keegan Bradley	-900.2
Rickie Fowler	-836.0
Collin Morikawa	-809.6
Tyrrell Hatton	-752.5
Jordan Spieth	-736.0

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Augusta National course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.18	Putts per GIR
0.17	Greens in regulation
0.09	Scrambling
0.08	Shots gained off the tee

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	71.46
Adrian Meronk	71.61
Xander Schauffele	72.41
Chris Kirk	72.91
Wyndham Clark	72.99
Si Woo Kim	73.02
Sahith Theegala	73.07
Rory McIlroy	73.23

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Zach Johnson	74.6
Will Zalatoris	74.5
Luke List	74.5
Min Woo Lee	74.5
Justin Thomas	74.4
Grayson Murray	74.4
Nicolai Hojgaard	74.4
Sungjae Im	74.3

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Augusta GA, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Luke List	Augusta, GA	2
Chris Kirk	Athens, GA	75
Zach Johnson	St. Simons Island, GA	175
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island, GA	175
JT Poston	St. Simons Island, GA	175
Harris English	Sea Island, GA	175
Russell Henley	Columbus, GA	175
Peter Malnati	Knoxville, TN	200

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.370
I love this place	0.176
Ooh, that’s hot	0.140
Location, location, location	0.053