I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Ryan Palmer	0.579
Jordan Spieth	0.554
Seamus Power	0.532
Matt Kuchar	0.509
KH Lee	0.480
Sung Kang	0.469
Nate Lashley	0.461
Adam Scott	0.431

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jordan Spieth	17	1338.2
Jason Day	18	1330.1
Sungjae Im	20	1309.3
Adam Scott	24	1259.9
Will Zalatoris	27	1213.7
Si Woo Kim	30	1177.0
Tom Kim	32	1165.3
Byeong Hun An	38	1064.1

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3048.9
Xander Schauffele	2	2278.4
Rory McIlroy	3	2189.9
Patrick Cantlay	4	2040.2

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Sam Stevens	1680.9
Patrick Fishburn	1396.7
Nico Echavarria	1376.3
Chad Ramey	1316.1
Ryan Brehm	1250.6
Mark Hubbard	1193.4
Paul Barjon	1185.5
Garrick Higgo	1147.6

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Beau Hossler	-823.0
Jordan Spieth	-812.6
Taylor Montgomery	-806.4
Byeong Hun An	-790.3
Will Zalatoris	-694.7
Maverick McNealy	-663.0
Sam Ryder	-633.7
Matt Kuchar	-584.2

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Craig Ranch course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last three years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.17	Shots gained off the tee
0.13	Scrambling
0.13	Shots gained around the green
0.13	Putts per GIR

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Maverick McNealy	69.43
Si Woo Kim	69.61
Jason Day	69.97
Carl Yuan	70.18
Stephan Jaeger	70.20
Alex Noren	70.27
Byeong Hun An	70.37
Taiga Semikawa	70.39

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scott Gutschewski	72.0
Zach Johnson	71.9
Parker Coody	71.9
Robert MacIntyre	71.9
Ryan Moore	71.7
Chan Kim	71.6
Nico Echavarria	71.6
Patrick Rodgers	71.5

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and McKinney TX, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Parker Coody	Plano TX	12
Pierceson Coody	Plano TX	12
Jordan Spieth	Dallas, TX	31
Brandon Wu	Dallas, TX	31
Kelly Kraft	Dallas, TX	31
Si Woo Kim	Dallas, TX	31
Blaine Hale	Dallas, TX	31
Will Zalatoris	Dallas, TX	31
Austin Smotherman	Dallas, TX	31

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.374
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.141
Location, location, location	0.050