I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Justin Rose	0.763
Brooks Koepka	0.761
Shane Lowry	0.653
Rory McIlroy	0.641
Patrick Reed	0.572
Xander Schauffele	0.565
Hideki Matsuyama	0.546
Jordan Spieth	0.542

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3082.2
Xander Schauffele	2	2333.0
Rory McIlroy	3	2252.8
Patrick Cantlay	4	1997.2
Ludvig Aberg	5	1803.4
Viktor Hovland	6	1691.8
Jon Rahm	7	1670.5
Max Homa	8	1662.4

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Seamus Power	74	730.1
Abraham Ancer	77	706.6
Louis Oosthuizen	80	690.9
Charles Howell	83	679.4

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Ludvig Aberg	1508.8
Hideki Matsuyama	1276.2
Ryan Fox	1236.7
Akshay Bhatia	1205.0
Adam Schenk	1176.8
Scottie Scheffler	1018.0
Brice Garnett	1001.2
Alex Noren	977.8

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Viktor Hovland	-1200.0
Sam Burns	-1112.3
Xander Schauffele	-1099.7
Justin Thomas	-914.2
Keegan Bradley	-796.6
Cameron Young	-793.1
Patrick Cantlay	-782.6
Taylor Montgomery	-771.2

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the average PGA Championship course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on these courses within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.23	Driving distance
0.22	Putts per GIR
0.14	Shots gained in approach
0.12	Shots gained off the tee

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	68.25
Sebastian Soderberg	69.49
Wyndham Clark	69.77
Rasmus Hojgaard	69.92
Thriston Lawrence	69.97
Xander Schauffele	70.01
Rory McIlroy	70.08
Jordan Spieth	70.10

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Camilo Villegas	74.0
Vincent Norrman	73.8
Zac Blair	73.1
Ben Kohles	73.0
Taylor Montgomery	72.8
Rickie Fowler	72.6
Will Zalatoris	72.5
Justin Rose	72.5

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Louisville KY, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Adam Schenk	Vincennes, IN	125
Peter Malnati	Knoxville, TN	175
Stephan Jaeger	Chattanooga, TN	225
Lee Hodges	Athens, AL	250
Chris Kirk	Athens, GA	325
Brendon Todd	Watkinsville, GA	325
Mac Hughes	Charlotte, NC	325
Sepp Straka	Birmingham, AL	325

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.375
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.140
Location, location, location	0.050