I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jordan Spieth	0.684
Emiliano Grillo	0.577
Brian Harman	0.558
Tony Finau	0.548
Justin Rose	0.531
Collin Morikawa	0.473
Andrew Putnam	0.443
Scottie Scheffler	0.431

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3139.4
Max Homa	7	1645.9
Collin Morikawa	11	1522.0
Sungjae Im	18	1329.8
Brian Harman	19	1300.5
Tony Finau	22	1270.7
Denny McCarthy	23	1263.2
Jordan Spieth	24	1249.8

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Xander Schauffele	2	2458.5
Rory McIlroy	3	2301.5
Patrick Cantlay	4	1925.2
Ludvig Aberg	6	1717.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Patrick Fishburn	1441.8
Nico Echavarria	1415.4
Mark Hubbard	1352.1
Sam Stevens	1307.9
Chad Ramey	1296.7
Ryan Brehm	1258.7
Max Greyserman	1131.8
Thomas Detry	1113.7

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Emiliano Grillo	-973.9
Eric Cole	-893.8
Andrew Putnam	-707.2
Jordan Spieth	-697.4
Nicolai Hojgaard	-655.4
Adam Schenk	-596.8
Keith Mitchell	-585.0
Sam Ryder	-574.1

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Colonial CC course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.18	Driving accuracy
0.16	Shots gained putting
0.14	Shots gained in approach
0.10	Shots gained around the green

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	68.78
Si Woo Kim	69.44
Lucas Glover	69.45
Akshay Bhatia	69.52
Denny McCarthy	69.53
Aaron Rai	69.61
Nate Lashley	69.69
Andrew Putnam	69.72

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Ben Taylor	71.4
Vincent Norrman	71.3
Alejandro Tosti	71.3
Brandt Snedeker	71.2
Callum Tarren	71.1
Ryan Brehm	71.1
Kevin Kisner	71.1
Patrick Fishburn	71.0

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Ft. Worth TX, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Ryan Palmer	Colleyville, TX	17
Hayden Springer	Trophy Club, TX	22
Si Woo Kim	Dallas, TX	33
Austin Smotherman	Dallas, TX	33
Taylor Moore	Dallas, TX	33
Paul Haley	Dallas, TX	33
Jordan Spieth	Dallas, TX	33
Brandon Wu	Dallas, TX	33
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas, TX	33

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.374
I love this place	0.180
Ooh, that’s hot	0.135
Location, location, location	0.049