I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .600 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .275 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Rory McIlroy	0.818
Shane Lowry	0.690
Nick Taylor	0.656
Adam Hadwin	0.630
Aaron Rai	0.611
Corey Conners	0.549
Doug Ghim	0.535
Matt Kuchar	0.516

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Rory McIlroy	3	2304.7
Tommy Fleetwood	11	1531.0
Sahith Theegala	16	1413.8
Shane Lowry	20	1299.6
Sam Burns	22	1274.1
Corey Conners	24	1243.7
Adam Scott	25	1240.5
Cameron Young	33	1148.1

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3181.3
Xander Schauffele	2	2459.5
Patrick Cantlay	4	1921.9
Viktor Hovland	5	1850.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Shane Lowry	1995.2
Patrick Fishburn	1443.4
Rory McIlroy	1342.9
Ryan Brehm	1258.9
Paul Barjon	1223.8
Taylor Pendrith	1172.8
Alex Noren	1017.3
Kevin Tway	994.1

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Cameron Young	-1046.6
Sahith Theegala	-897.5
Eric Cole	-871.3
Sam Burns	-844.8
Nicolai Hojgaard	-637.2
Nick Taylor	-563.9
Sam Ryder	-556.7
Beau Hossler	-538.0

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Hamilton Golf & CC course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. The four events on this course since 2003 are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.19	Putts per GIR
0.17	Greens in regulation
0.07	Driving distance
0.03	Sand saves

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Patton Kizzire	69.55
Nico Echavarria	69.59
Erik van Rooyen	69.59
Aaron Rai	69.69
Sam Burns	69.70
Sam Ryder	69.72
Justin Lower	69.72
Davis Thompson	69.72

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Raul Pereda	71.4
Ben Taylor	71.0
Kevin Kisner	70.9
Scott Gutschewski	70.9
Brandt Snedeker	70.8
Ryan Palmer	70.7
Ryan Brehm	70.7
Paul Barjon	70.7

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Hamilton, ON, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Corey Conners	Listowel, Ontario	50
Justin Lower	Uniontown, OH	175
Nick Hardy	Northbrook, IL	400
Akshay Bhatia	Wake Forest, NC	500
Chesson Hadley	Raleigh NC	525
Mac Hughes	Charlotte, NC	550
Trace Crowe	Charlotte, NC	550
Jacob Bridgeman	Greenville, SC	600

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.374
I love this place	0.181
Ooh, that’s hot	0.131
Location, location, location	0.049