I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .600 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .275 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Patrick Cantlay	0.765
Jordan Spieth	0.736
Si Woo Kim	0.706
Rory McIlroy	0.639
Xander Schauffele	0.627
Rickie Fowler	0.556
Shane Lowry	0.484
Scottie Scheffler	0.470

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3196.9
Xander Schauffele	2	2461.6
Rory McIlroy	3	2331.3
Patrick Cantlay	4	1920.7
Viktor Hovland	5	1857.4
Ludvig Aberg	6	1712.9
Collin Morikawa	8	1600.5
Max Homa	9	1597.4

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	7	1601.1
Tyrrell Hatton	10	1570.8
Bryson DeChambeau	25	1235.1
Adam Scott	28	1209.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Collin Morikawa	1177.0
Taylor Pendrith	1152.6
Rory McIlroy	1132.5
Lee Hodges	1104.5
Sungjae Im	1039.0
Sepp Straka	981.6
Justin Thomas	882.6
Scottie Scheffler	878.3

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Patrick Cantlay	-1519.9
Cameron Young	-1011.4
Will Zalatoris	-974.4
Wyndham Clark	-941.2
Emiliano Grillo	-938.2
Sahith Theegala	-854.6
Eric Cole	-849.9
Cam Davis	-804.9

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Muirfield Village course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.17	Shots gained putting
0.16	Driving distance
0.12	Shots gained around the green
0.09	Driving accuracy

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Rory McIlroy	71.56
Jason Day	71.71
Stephan Jaeger	71.74
Wyndham Clark	71.75
Xander Schauffele	71.78
Scottie Scheffler	71.78
Tommy Fleetwood	71.81
Taylor Pendrith	71.84

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Brandt Snedeker	73.6
Emiliano Grillo	73.0
Viktor Hovland	73.0
Adam Svensson	73.0
Tom Hoge	72.9
Lee Hodges	72.8
Seamus Power	72.8
Nick Taylor	72.8

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and the Columbus OH area.

Player	Residence	Distance
Corey Conners	Listowel, Ontario	250
Adam Schenk	Vincennes, IN	275
Peter Malnati	Knoxville, TN	325
Brandt Snedeker	Nashville, TN	375
Mac Hughes	Charlotte, NC	400
Stephan Jaeger	Chattanooga, TN	400
Akshay Bhatia	Wake Forest, NC	400
Lee Hodges	Athens, AL	450

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.374
I love this place	0.179
Ooh, that’s hot	0.130
Location, location, location	0.049