I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .600 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .275 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Patrick Cantlay	0.774
Brian Harman	0.750
Rory McIlroy	0.569
Keegan Bradley	0.562
Xander Schauffele	0.496
Russell Henley	0.451
Jason Day	0.422
Scottie Scheffler	0.417

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3168.1
Xander Schauffele	2	2548.0
Rory McIlroy	3	2432.2
Patrick Cantlay	4	1960.6
Ludvig Aberg	5	1867.0
Viktor Hovland	6	1819.9
Collin Morikawa	7	1736.0
Russell Henley	8	1615.0

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Tyrrell Hatton	12	1550.5
Jon Rahm	13	1533.3
Bryson DeChambeau	20	1391.3
Min Woo Lee	34	1123.4

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Collin Morikawa	2156.9
Tony Finau	1588.3
Xander Schauffele	1513.1
Robert MacIntyre	1164.3
Lee Hodges	1162.6
Billy Horschel	1123.5
Corey Conners	989.4
Thomas Detry	986.5

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Wyndham Clark	-1267.3
Cameron Young	-1012.0
Max Homa	-964.7
Rickie Fowler	-948.5
Cam Davis	-890.2
Patrick Cantlay	-871.6
Adam Schenk	-859.2
Eric Cole	-771.9

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC River Highlands course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.11	Putts per GIR
0.08	Scrambling
	Driving accuracy
	Driving distance

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Denny McCarthy	70.14
Xander Schauffele	70.19
Scottie Scheffler	70.25
Ben Griffin	70.39
Mac Hughes	70.40
Ludvig Aberg	70.45
Andrew Putnam	70.47
Tommy Fleetwood	70.48

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Keegan Bradley	71.8
Nick Dunlap	71.5
Viktor Hovland	71.5
Shane Lowry	71.4
Tony Finau	71.4
Adam Hadwin	71.3
Austin Eckroat	71.3
Tom Kim	71.3

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Cromwell CN, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Michael Thorbjornsen	Wellesley, MA	75
Keegan Bradley	Woodstock, VT	150
Corey Conners	Listowel, Ontario	450
Akshay Bhatia	Wake Forest, NC	500
Mac Hughes	Charlotte, NC	625
Webb Simpson	Charlotte, NC	625
Peter Malnati	Knoxville, TN	725
Chris Kirk	Athens, GA	800

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.377
I love this place	0.183
Ooh, that’s hot	0.130
Location, location, location	0.047