I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .600 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .275 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Lucas Glover	0.602
Adam Schenk	0.568
Seamus Power	0.521
Mark Hubbard	0.510
Denny McCarthy	0.509
Alex Smalley	0.497
Ryan Moore	0.493
JT Poston	0.480

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	4	2024.2
Sungjae Im	16	1479.7
Jason Day	24	1285.0
Denny McCarthy	25	1262.9
JT Poston	32	1170.6
Jordan Spieth	35	1142.7
Sepp Straka	36	1125.9
Cam Davis	43	1027.0

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3238.8
Xander Schauffele	2	2550.0
Rory McIlroy	3	2441.5
Ludvig Aberg	5	1836.3

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Davis Thompson	1367.1
Sungjae Im	1293.8
Sepp Straka	1226.8
Aaron Rai	1210.2
Maverick McNealy	1051.4
Chandler Phillips	833.7
Patton Kizzire	651.7
Nick Watney	601.2

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Adam Schenk	-804.8
Jason Day	-793.4
Jordan Spieth	-745.7
Taylor Montgomery	-675.4
Brendon Todd	-628.7
Andrew Putnam	-559.2
Sam Ryder	-530.4
Mark Hubbard	-516.7

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Deere Run course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.12	Shots gained in approach
0.11	Driving distance
0.08	Driving accuracy
0.08	Shots gained around the green

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Lucas Glover	69.52
Aaron Rai	69.77
Ryan Moore	69.85
Keith Mitchell	69.85
Jake Knapp	69.86
Greyson Sigg	69.90
Nate Lashley	69.90
Jorge Campillo	69.91

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Raul Pereda	71.4
Brandt Snedeker	71.3
Kevin Kisner	71.3
Ben Taylor	71.3
Scott Gutschewski	71.1
Justin Suh	71.0
Matt Kuchar	71.0
Ryan Brehm	71.0

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Silvis IL, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Nick Hardy	Northbrook, IL	150
Brice Garnett	Gallatin MO	225
Adam Schenk	Vincennes, IN	250
Austin Cook	Jonesboro, AR	400
Brandt Snedeker	Nashville, TN	425
Sam Stevens	Wichita, KS	450
Justin Lower	Uniontown, OH	475
Lee Hodges	Athens, AL	500

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.379
I love this place	0.183
Ooh, that’s hot	0.129
Location, location, location	0.046