I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .600 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .275 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jason Dufner	0.512
Ryan Armour	0.464
Brian Stuard	0.347
Henrik Norlander	0.340
James Hahn	0.316
Josh Teater	0.315
Austin Cook	0.311
Sam Ryder	0.275

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Michael Thorbjornsen	63	834.5
Sam Ryder	101	597.4
JJ Spaun	104	589.9
Dylan Wu	110	546.9
Michael Kim	111	545.6
Carson Young	115	517.7
Alex Smalley	117	509.8
Justin Suh	124	483.5

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3248.9
Xander Schauffele	2	2552.8
Rory McIlroy	3	2446.1
Patrick Cantlay	4	2029.8

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Hayden Springer	781.1
Pierceson Coody	680.0
Carson Young	511.1
Rico Hoey	425.4
Filippo Celli	419.4
Joel Dahmen	335.2
David Skinns	314.5
Hayden Buckley	300.5

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Sam Ryder	-526.2
Alex Smalley	-509.8
Justin Suh	-483.5
Garrick Higgo	-394.5
Chez Reavie	-391.0
Greyson Sigg	-389.9
Aaron Baddeley	-377.1
SH Kim	-320.1

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Keene Trace course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last five years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.20	Driving accuracy
0.16	Shots gained off the tee
0.14	Driving distance
0.09	Putts per GIR

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Kevin Dougherty	68.82
Rico Hoey	69.01
David Ravetto	69.13
Patrick Fishburn	69.31
Hayden Springer	69.42
Carson Young	69.46
Marco Penge	69.48
Sam Bairstow	69.51

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Ben Taylor	72.0
Camilo Villegas	71.8
Aaron Baddeley	71.8
Chase Hanna	71.7
Erik Barnes	71.7
Brandt Snedeker	71.4
Stephen Gallacher	71.4
Renato Paratore	71.2

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Nicholasville KY (near Lexington), the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Brandt Snedeker	Nashville, TN	175
Bill Haas	Greenville, SC	250
Jacob Bridgeman	Greenville, SC	250
Carson Young	Anderson, SC	250
Wesley Bryan	Alpharetta, GA	275
Trace Crowe	Charlotte, NC	275
Alex Smalley	Greensboro, NC	300
Erik Barnes	Birmingham, AL	325
Robby Shelton	Birmingham, AL	325

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.378
I love this place	0.182
Ooh, that’s hot	0.130
Location, location, location	0.046