I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .595 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jordan Spieth	0.846
Tommy Fleetwood	0.805
Rory McIlroy	0.724
Jon Rahm	0.707
Xander Schauffele	0.699
Brian Harman	0.626
Viktor Hovland	0.605
Tony Finau	0.572

---

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3259.1
Xander Schauffele	2	2551.3
Rory McIlroy	3	2508.8
Patrick Cantlay	4	2031.4
Ludvig Aberg	5	1928.4
Collin Morikawa	6	1854.6
Viktor Hovland	7	1791.9
Tommy Fleetwood	8	1602.2

---

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Alex Noren	38	1059.3
Cam Davis	41	1045.7
Aaron Rai	42	1041.9
Thomas Detry	47	972.4

---

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Davis Thompson	2006.8
Akshay Bhatia	1954.5
Bryson DeChambeau	1900.2
Tony Finau	1886.8
Collin Morikawa	1624.8
Ludvig Aberg	1326.4
Sungjae Im	1107.7
Rory McIlroy	1051.1

---

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Max Homa	-1249.9
Jon Rahm	-942.6
Byeong Hun An	-910.2
Justin Rose	-875.0
Sepp Straka	-802.7
Adam Schenk	-787.8
Jordan Spieth	-738.5
Taylor Moore	-718.3

---

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the typical British Open course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on these courses within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.21	Shots gained in approach
0.12	Sand saves
0.11	Shots gained around the green
0.07	Driving accuracy

---

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	70.83
Sebastian Soderberg	71.45
Nacho Elvira	71.46
Matteo Manassero	71.48
Tony Finau	71.60
Rikuya Hoshino	71.62
Russell Henley	71.63
Xander Schauffele	71.64

---

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Vincent Norrman	74.2
Gary Woodland	73.9
Daniel Hillier	73.6
Ryan Fox	73.4
Adam Schenk	73.4
Angel Hidalgo	73.4
Daniel Brown	73.4
Alexander Bjork	73.3

---

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Ayrshire, Scotland, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Ewen Ferguson	Glasgow, Scotland	28
Robert MacIntyre	Oban, Scotland	75
Rory McIlroy	Holywood, Northern Ireland	75
Tommy Fleetwood	Southport, England	150
Matthew Jordan	Wirral Peninsula, England	175
Sam Horsfield	Manchester, England	175
Dan Bradbury	Wakefield, England	175
Matt Fitzpatrick	Sheffield, England	200

---

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.379
I love this place	0.181
Ooh, that’s hot	0.130
Location, location, location	0.045