I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Collin Morikawa	0.562
Corey Conners	0.535
Patrick Cantlay	0.513
Jordan Spieth	0.511
Rory McIlroy	0.498
Justin Thomas	0.490
Sungjae Im	0.480
Hideki Matsuyama	0.473

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3277.7
Xander Schauffele	2	2661.6
Rory McIlroy	3	2467.3
Patrick Cantlay	4	2051.8
Collin Morikawa	5	1874.6
Ludvig Aberg	6	1779.7
Viktor Hovland	7	1765.0
Russell Henley	8	1721.7

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	11	1579.2
Tyrrell Hatton	14	1501.3
Bryson DeChambeau	24	1309.7
Rickie Fowler	42	1025.5

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Max Greyserman	1833.5
Aaron Rai	1751.9
Tony Finau	1271.2
Sungjae Im	1147.8
Adam Scott	983.3
Cameron Young	967.7
Russell Henley	872.5
Billy Horschel	807.3

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Max Homa	-1350.0
Viktor Hovland	-1160.5
Min Woo Lee	-984.8
JT Poston	-967.3
Stephan Jaeger	-759.7
Will Zalatoris	-711.8
Matt Fitzpatrick	-686.6
Sepp Straka	-664.5

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Southwind course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.23	Shots gained in approach
0.22	Shots gained off the tee
0.14	Shots gained around the green
0.11	Shots gained putting

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	67.49
Rory McIlroy	68.12
Xander Schauffele	68.31
Hideki Matsuyama	68.80
Collin Morikawa	68.83
Ludvig Aberg	68.89
Tony Finau	68.95
Corey Conners	69.02

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Peter Malnati	70.9
Justin Rose	70.6
Nick Dunlap	70.6
Brendon Todd	70.5
Eric Cole	70.3
Cam Davis	70.3
Emiliano Grillo	70.2
Jake Knapp	70.2

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Memphis TN, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Nick Dunlap	Tuscaloosa, AL	200
Sepp Straka	Birmingham, AL	200
Sam Burns	Choudrant, LA	225
Stephan Jaeger	Chattanooga, TN	275
Russell Henley	Columbus, GA	350
Peter Malnati	Knoxville, TN	350
Brendon Todd	Watkinsville, GA	375
Chris Kirk	Athens, GA	375

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.378
I love this place	0.175
Ooh, that’s hot	0.132
Location, location, location	0.012