I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Rory McIlroy	0.833
Patrick Cantlay	0.821
Xander Schauffele	0.714
Tony Finau	0.701
Corey Conners	0.655
Sungjae Im	0.628
Scottie Scheffler	0.617
Brian Harman	0.553

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3304.6
Xander Schauffele	2	2721.8
Rory McIlroy	3	2392.1
Patrick Cantlay	4	2085.1
Collin Morikawa	5	1874.5
Viktor Hovland	6	1863.2
Ludvig Aberg	7	1729.3
Russell Henley	8	1705.0

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	12	1572.2
Tyrrell Hatton	17	1466.5
Bryson DeChambeau	25	1290.7
Tom Kim	27	1205.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Billy Horschel	1827.1
Aaron Rai	1711.7
Max Greyserman	1543.2
Adam Scott	1299.5
Robert MacIntyre	1184.0
Patrick Cantlay	1137.3
Alex Noren	864.9
Russell Henley	835.7

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Max Homa	-1298.7
Rory McIlroy	-988.7
Viktor Hovland	-950.6
JT Poston	-940.1
Tom Hoge	-877.9
Brian Harman	-795.0
Keegan Bradley	-776.0
Adam Hadwin	-724.9

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Certain skills required

Among a set of six PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Castle Pines course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course from 1999 thru 2006 are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.28	Greens in regulation
0.18	Putts per GIR
0.04	Driving accuracy
0.04	Scrambling

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	69.18
Xander Schauffele	69.98
Aaron Rai	70.37
Corey Conners	70.48
Ludvig Aberg	70.53
Davis Thompson	70.62
Alex Noren	70.70
Byeong Hun An	70.75

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Will Zalatoris	72.0
Eric Cole	72.0
Nick Dunlap	71.8
Cam Davis	71.7
Austin Eckroat	71.7
Max Homa	71.7
Denny McCarthy	71.7
Patrick Cantlay	71.6

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Castle Rock CO, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Tony Finau	Lehi UT	375
Austin Eckroat	Edmond, OK	475
Viktor Hovland	Stillwater, OK	475
Max Homa	Scottsdale, AZ	575
Wyndham Clark	Scottsdale, AZ	575
Aaron Rai	Scottsdale, AZ	575
Will Zalatoris	Dallas, TX	650
Si Woo Kim	Dallas, TX	650
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas, TX	650

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.381
I love this place	0.176
Ooh, that’s hot	0.131
Location, location, location	0.012