I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Xander Schauffele	0.941
Rory McIlroy	0.877
Tony Finau	0.782
Justin Thomas	0.728
Patrick Cantlay	0.709
Sungjae Im	0.655
Scottie Scheffler	0.626
Viktor Hovland	0.625

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3208.6
Xander Schauffele	2	2737.8
Rory McIlroy	3	2386.5
Patrick Cantlay	4	2081.2
Collin Morikawa	5	1837.9
Viktor Hovland	6	1828.6
Ludvig Aberg	7	1795.0
Tommy Fleetwood	8	1694.5

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	13	1572.5
Tyrrell Hatton	17	1468.5
Corey Conners	18	1463.8
Max Homa	20	1354.0

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Adam Scott	1974.7
Billy Horschel	1957.0
Sam Burns	1181.5
Taylor Pendrith	991.2
Xander Schauffele	901.2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	381.7
Tommy Fleetwood	352.0
Byeong Hun An	344.0

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Rory McIlroy	-1272.9
Sahith Theegala	-869.8
Viktor Hovland	-770.0
Shane Lowry	-738.2
Justin Thomas	-678.2
Ludvig Aberg	-653.3
Tom Hoge	-564.9
Akshay Bhatia	-509.8

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the East Lake GC course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.31	Driving accuracy
0.28	Shots gained off the tee
0.20	Shots gained around the green
0.09	Greens in regulation

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	66.65
Collin Morikawa	67.29
Rory McIlroy	67.47
Aaron Rai	67.64
Xander Schauffele	67.98
Tommy Fleetwood	68.13
Sepp Straka	68.16
Shane Lowry	68.29

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Matthieu Pavon	70.1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	70.0
Wyndham Clark	69.8
Tom Hoge	69.8
Taylor Pendrith	69.8
Justin Thomas	69.7
Patrick Cantlay	69.7
Byeong Hun An	69.5

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2024 and Atlanta, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Chris Kirk	Athens, GA	50
Russell Henley	Columbus, GA	100
Sepp Straka	Birmingham, AL	150
Ludvig Aberg	Tallahassee FL	225
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	300
Akshay Bhatia	Wake Forest, NC	350
Byeong Hun An	Orlando, FL	400
Sam Burns	Choudrant, LA	475

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.384
I love this place	0.180
Ooh, that’s hot	0.130
Location, location, location	0.011