07
Oct

Black Desert Championship Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

This week’s Black Desert Championship near St. George UT is the second and last of two first-time events on the PGA Tour in 2024. (The Myrtle Beach Classic in May was the other.) With no history, an average-level purse of $7.5 million, and an out-of-the-way venue, the event has drawn a modest field featuring only one of the world top 50 (per the Hawley Ratings). The top three in the field, in order, are Harris English, Chris Kirk, and Keith Mitchell, with the latter favored based on stronger recent finishes. Others with strong recent form include JJ Spaun, Jacob Bridgeman, Seamus Power, and Patrick Fishburn. Popular and top-20-ranked Tony Finau is easily the top player on Tour with Utah roots but he has appeared only once (Presidents Cup) since the Tour Championship and is skipping the event. (UPDATE: See https://www.nbcsports.com/golf/news/the-family-reason-why-tony-finau-isnt-playing-in-pga-tours-utah-event.)

Dates: Oct. 10-13, 2024. Venue: Black Desert Resort; Ivins UT.
Purse: $7.5 million.


Keith Mitchell
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Keith Mitchell 42.2 110
2 Beau Hossler 49.7 11
3 Ben Griffin 50.9 11
4 Kurt Kitayama 51.2 25
5 JJ Spaun 51.6 25
6 Chris Kirk 52.4 35
7 Seamus Power 52.6 11
8 Patrick Rodgers 53.9 11
9 Adam Svensson 54.1 25
10 Harris English 54.4 6
11 Emiliano Grillo 54.7 DNP
12 Stephan Jaeger 54.9 2
13 Andrew Novak 55.6 WD
14 Lucas Glover 56.8 3
15 KH Lee 57.8 46
16 Erik van Rooyen 58.7 43
17 Kevin Yu 59.0 DNP
18 Michael Thorbjornsen 59.3 WD
19 Doug Ghim 59.6 25
20 Mark Hubbard 59.7 86
21 Ryan Fox 59.7 46
22 Alex Smalley 59.8 25
23 Patrick Fishburn 60.2 86
24 Patton Kizzire 60.2 43
25 Chan Kim 60.3 46
26 Nick Taylor 60.8 25
27 Mac Meissner 61.7 25
28 Taylor Montgomery 61.8 105
29 Jacob Bridgeman 61.9 46
30 Justin Lower 62.2 70
31 Chandler Phillips 63.6 86
32 Zac Blair 63.7 66
33 Harry Hall 63.8 35
34 Michael Kim 63.8 77
35 Vince Whaley 63.8 67
36 Lee Hodges 64.2 8
37 Carson Young 64.2 11
38 Alexander Bjork 64.8 68
39 Bud Cauley 65.0 105
40 Hayden Springer 65.1 77
41 Chad Ramey 65.6 21
42 Rico Hoey 65.6 21
43 Greyson Sigg 65.6 11
44 David Skinns 65.7 86
45 Dylan Wu 65.9 69
46 Justin Suh 65.9 46
47 Ryo Hisatsune 66.0 25
48 Matthew NeSmith 66.1 77
49 Trace Crowe 66.2 54
50 Henrik Norlander 66.3 8
51 Chesson Hadley 66.3 64
52 Matthias Schmid 66.4 5
53 CT Pan 66.6 77
54 Ben Kohles 66.7 46
55 Daniel Berger 66.7 35
56 Nate Lashley 66.7 61
57 Sam Ryder 67.1 40
58 Kevin Tway 67.4 35
59 Chez Reavie 68.1 54
60 Kelly Kraft 68.7 96
61 Brice Garnett 68.9 96
62 Garrick Higgo 68.9 105
63 Nico Echavarria 69.0 11
64 Hayden Buckley 69.1 86
65 Nick Hardy 69.2 8
66 SH Kim 69.5 64
67 Kevin Chappell 69.6 70
68 Luke List 69.6 101
69 Austin Smotherman 69.7 WD
70 Martin Laird 69.8 70
71 Brandon Wu 69.9 116
72 Peter Kuest 70.0 115
73 Joel Dahmen 70.0 40
74 Joseph Bramlett 70.0 21
75 David Lipsky 70.3 77
76 Robby Shelton 70.3 77
77 Rafael Campos 70.6 70
78 Ryan Palmer 70.6 DNP
79 Troy Merritt 70.8 101
80 Pierceson Coody 70.8 77
81 Aaron Baddeley 71.0 110
82 Peter Malnati 71.4 86
83 Wesley Bryan 71.7 21
84 Ryan Moore 71.8 101
85 Will Gordon 71.8 35
86 Lanto Griffin 71.9 54
87 Trey Mullinax 72.1 25
88 Cameron Champ 72.3 46
89 Carl Yuan 72.4 11
90 Kevin Streelman 72.7 3
91 Sami Valimaki 72.8 110
92 Tyler Duncan 72.8 25
93 Nicholas Lindheim 72.8 121
94 MJ Daffue 72.8 DNP
95 Joe Highsmith 72.9 6
96 Scott Piercy 73.1 54
97 Tim Wilkinson 73.3 70
98 Matt McCarty 73.6 1
99 Kihei Akina 73.7 DNP
100 Jay Don Blake 73.8 125
101 Zac Jones 73.8 116
102 Bowen Mauss 73.8 116
103 Dustin Volk 73.8 127
104 Roger Sloan 73.8 61
105 Erik Barnes 73.9 60
106 Seung-yul Noh 73.9 70
107 Max McGreevy 74.0 11
108 James Hahn 74.1 DNP
109 Sean O’Hair 74.2 120
110 Martin Trainer 74.2 126
111 Alejandro Tosti 74.3 43
112 Cody Gribble 74.3 116
113 Wilson Furr 74.4 46
114 Austin Cook 74.5 121
115 Paul Barjon 74.6 77
116 Camilo Villegas 75.3 105
117 Bill Haas 75.5 DNP
118 Blaine Hale 75.7 110
119 Kevin Kisner 76.0 124
120 Adrien Dumont de Chassart 76.0 96
121 Parker Coody 76.1 DNP
122 Callum Tarren 76.2 86
123 Nick Watney 76.3 DNP
124 Mike Weir 76.6 101
125 Norman Xiong 77.0 63
126 Philip Knowles 77.1 40
127 Scott Gutschewski 77.5 123
128 Josh Teater 77.6 86
129 JB Holmes 77.8 DNP
130 Ryan McCormick 78.1 WD
131 Raul Pereda 78.2 54
132 Ben Taylor 78.4 96
133 Kevin Dougherty 78.7 77
134 Tyson Alexander 78.9 54
135 Ryan Brehm 79.4 86
136 Tom Whitney 80.3 11
Akina Kihei late entry 74
Chris Korte late entry 93
Chandler Blanchet late entry 99
David Bradshaw late entry 107
John Sand late entry 110
More | Less
Oct. 15, 2024. The accuracy number for these picks is 114. The average is 179. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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