I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Sungjae Im	0.702
Adam Hadwin	0.687
JT Poston	0.609
Si Woo Kim	0.582
Tony Finau	0.574
Andrew Putnam	0.556
Tom Hoge	0.540
Sam Burns	0.533

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	5	1835.6
Sungjae Im	11	1539.1
Sam Burns	12	1537.3
Wyndham Clark	15	1468.4
Tony Finau	18	1349.6
Justin Thomas	21	1321.0
Denny McCarthy	22	1276.1
Brian Harman	28	1175.8

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2993.0
Xander Schauffele	2	2486.3
Rory McIlroy	3	2223.2
Collin Morikawa	4	1912.3

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Harry Hall	1528.0
Nico Echavarria	1390.4
Patrick Fishburn	1351.8
Joe Highsmith	1182.1
Matti Schmid	1131.6
Lee Hodges	1071.0
Max Greyserman	868.0
Eric Cole	813.8

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Wyndham Clark	-1071.8
Billy Horschel	-928.6
Brendon Todd	-721.3
Jason Day	-687.7
Keith Mitchell	-654.9
Adam Hadwin	-625.8
Chris Kirk	-598.7
Tom Kim	-593.9

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the event’s three courses, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on these courses within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.16	Putts per GIR
0.05	Driving distance
0.04	Driving accuracy
0.02	Shots gained putting

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Sam Burns	68.72
Wyndham Clark	68.83
Max Greyserman	69.03
Harry Hall	69.08
Jason Day	69.10
Nick Dunlap	69.16
Jacob Bridgeman	69.18
Chandler Phillips	69.18

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Vincent Norrman	70.7
Camilo Villegas	70.3
Kevin Kisner	70.3
Ryan Palmer	70.2
Greyson Sigg	70.2
Will Zalatoris	70.1
Brandt Snedeker	70.0
Nate Lashley	69.9

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.385
I love this place	0.182
Ooh, that’s hot	0.127
Location, location, location	0.011