I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Tony Finau	0.760
Hideki Matsuyama	0.643
Luke List	0.589
Max Homa	0.574
Jason Day	0.556
Justin Rose	0.487
Sungjae Im	0.478
Ryan Palmer	0.472

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Ludvig Aberg	6	1751.5
Hideki Matsuyama	9	1615.7
Sungjae Im	12	1482.0
Luke Clanton	17	1394.8
Shane Lowry	20	1332.8
Tony Finau	21	1293.1
Keegan Bradley	23	1250.8
Sahith Theegala	25	1207.1

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2990.4
Xander Schauffele	2	2483.9
Rory McIlroy	3	2211.0
Collin Morikawa	4	1916.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Harry Hall	1568.9
Patrick Fishburn	1316.7
Lee Hodges	1175.4
Mark Hubbard	1008.4
Maverick McNealy	979.1
Max Greyserman	883.8
Ben Griffin	853.9
Austin Eckroat	829.8

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Si Woo Kim	-876.4
Sahith Theegala	-680.5
Harris English	-609.1
Tony Finau	-601.1
Andrew Putnam	-584.9
Justin Rose	-512.3
KH Lee	-506.3
Matthieu Pavon	-471.8

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Torrey Pines courses, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on these courses within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.08	Shots gained putting
0.06	Driving accuracy
0.05	Shots gained in approach
	Driving distance

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Joel Dahmen	72.09
Aaron Rai	72.11
Daniel Berger	72.12
Doug Ghim	72.14
Henrik Norlander	72.15
Greyson Sigg	72.16
Si Woo Kim	72.16
Adam Svensson	72.17

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Taylor Montgomery	72.7
Mac Hughes	72.6
Chris Gotterup	72.6
SH Kim	72.6
Peter Malnati	72.6
Davis Riley	72.5
Aaron Baddeley	72.5
Pierceson Coody	72.5

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.383
I love this place	0.181
Ooh, that’s hot	0.126
Location, location, location	0.011