I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jason Day	0.704
Patrick Cantlay	0.608
Beau Hossler	0.608
Jordan Spieth	0.585
Tom Hoge	0.558
Peter Malnati	0.542
Nick Taylor	0.509
Seamus Power	0.474

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2981.8
Rory McIlroy	3	2206.5
Collin Morikawa	4	1922.0
Patrick Cantlay	5	1894.1
Ludvig Aberg	6	1707.4
Russell Henley	7	1702.0
Tommy Fleetwood	8	1622.3
Hideki Matsuyama	9	1591.8

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Xander Schauffele	2	2479.9
Luke Clanton	13	1509.6
Tyrrell Hatton	18	1346.5
Jon Rahm	19	1332.3

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Lee Hodges	1683.7
Harry Hall	1568.1
Nico Echavarria	1331.1
Keegan Bradley	921.6
JJ Spaun	887.3
Nick Taylor	824.5
Patrick Fishburn	772.1
Maverick McNealy	730.0

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Scottie Scheffler	-1501.5
Wyndham Clark	-999.3
Viktor Hovland	-940.4
Si Woo Kim	-841.0
Brian Harman	-822.0
Sahith Theegala	-773.5
Jordan Spieth	-727.5
Aaron Rai	-700.0

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the event courses, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on these courses within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Joel Dahmen	72.09
Aaron Rai	72.11
Daniel Berger	72.12
Doug Ghim	72.14
Henrik Norlander	72.15
Greyson Sigg	72.16
Si Woo Kim	72.16
Adam Svensson	72.17

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Taylor Montgomery	72.7
Mac Hughes	72.6
Chris Gotterup	72.6
SH Kim	72.6
Peter Malnati	72.6
Davis Riley	72.5
Aaron Baddeley	72.5
Pierceson Coody	72.5

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Pebble Beach CA, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Collin Morikawa	La Canada, CA	275
JJ Spaun	San Dimas, CA	300
Doug Ghim	Las Vegas NV	375
Maverick McNealy	Las Vegas, NV	375
Seamus Power	Las Vegas, NV	375
Charley Hoffman	Las Vegas, NV	375
Harry Hall	Las Vegas, NV	375
Kurt Kitayama	Henderson, NV	400

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.381
I love this place	0.179
Ooh, that’s hot	0.124
Location, location, location	0.011