I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Justin Thomas	0.861
Scottie Scheffler	0.702
Hideki Matsuyama	0.635
Jordan Spieth	0.554
Billy Horschel	0.531
Charley Hoffman	0.527
Sam Burns	0.488
Keith Mitchell	0.465

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3014.0
Hideki Matsuyama	10	1547.1
Sam Burns	11	1539.7
Sungjae Im	12	1531.2
Luke Clanton	13	1505.9
Corey Conners	16	1425.4
Justin Thomas	17	1406.4
Wyndham Clark	19	1334.5

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Xander Schauffele	2	2477.9
Rory McIlroy	3	2327.3
Collin Morikawa	4	1959.0
Patrick Cantlay	5	1849.0

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Sepp Straka	1814.6
Harry Hall	1433.5
Nick Taylor	1180.4
Lee Hodges	1039.3
JJ Spaun	1017.5
Tom Hoge	895.9
Rasmus Hojgaard	893.1
Andrew Novak	886.6

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Wyndham Clark	-1034.4
Brian Harman	-794.6
Corey Conners	-763.1
Scottie Scheffler	-738.4
Sahith Theegala	-718.4
Brendon Todd	-671.9
Jordan Spieth	-663.9
Adam Hadwin	-617.6

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Scottsdale course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.11	Putts per GIR
0.11	Shots gained around the green
0.07	Shots gained putting
0.06	Sand saves

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Joel Dahmen	72.09
Aaron Rai	72.11
Daniel Berger	72.12
Doug Ghim	72.14
Henrik Norlander	72.15
Greyson Sigg	72.16
Si Woo Kim	72.16
Adam Svensson	72.17

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Taylor Montgomery	72.7
Mac Hughes	72.6
Chris Gotterup	72.6
SH Kim	72.6
Peter Malnati	72.6
Davis Riley	72.5
Aaron Baddeley	72.5
Pierceson Coody	72.5

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Scottsdale AZ, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Kevin Yu	Scottsdale, AZ	10
Kevin Streelman	Scottsdale, AZ	10
Chez Reavie	Scottsdale, AZ	10
Wyndham Clark	Scottsdale, AZ	10
Jake Knapp	Scottsdale, AZ	10
Joel Dahmen	Scottsdale, AZ	10
Max Homa	Scottsdale, AZ	10
Nate Lashley	Scottsdale, AZ	10

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.382
I love this place	0.179
Ooh, that’s hot	0.123
Location, location, location	0.011