I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .595 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Shane Lowry	0.711
Chris Kirk	0.589
Billy Horschel	0.522
Sepp Straka	0.484
Byeong Hun An	0.482
Zach Johnson	0.462
Keith Mitchell	0.450
CT Pan	0.444

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Russell Henley	7	1778.0
Sungjae Im	14	1431.9
Shane Lowry	16	1404.7
Denny McCarthy	17	1382.2
Luke Clanton	21	1331.7
Sepp Straka	23	1290.5
Taylor Pendrith	29	1189.5
Brian Harman	32	1171.7

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3022.6
Xander Schauffele	2	2473.7
Rory McIlroy	3	2320.7
Collin Morikawa	4	2006.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Andrew Novak	1996.0
Sepp Straka	1853.5
Daniel Berger	1637.1
Michael Kim	1523.1
Gary Woodland	1162.2
Alex Smalley	1118.8
Denny McCarthy	978.6
Aldrich Potgieter	874.0

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Byeong Hun An	-854.2
Kurt Kitayama	-736.9
Emiliano Grillo	-729.9
Eric Cole	-706.3
Mark Hubbard	-699.4
Brendon Todd	-640.3
Cameron Young	-635.3
Chris Kirk	-593.0

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on the PGA National (Champion) course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.17	Shots gained putting
0.07	Putts per GIR
0.05	Driving accuracy
0.04	Sand saves

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Joel Dahmen	72.09
Aaron Rai	72.11
Daniel Berger	72.12
Doug Ghim	72.14
Henrik Norlander	72.15
Greyson Sigg	72.16
Si Woo Kim	72.16
Adam Svensson	72.17

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Taylor Montgomery	72.7
Mac Hughes	72.6
Chris Gotterup	72.6
SH Kim	72.6
Peter Malnati	72.6
Davis Riley	72.5
Aaron Baddeley	72.5
Pierceson Coody	72.5

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Palm Beach Gardens FL, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Patrick Rodgers	Palm Beach Gardens, FL	0
Adam Svensson	Palm Beach Gardens, FL	0
Taylor Pendrith	Palm Beach Gardens, FL	0
Denny McCarthy	Jupiter, FL	6
Rickie Fowler	Jupiter, FL	6
Shane Lowry	Jupiter, FL	6
Bud Cauley	Jupiter, FL	6
Ryan Gerard	Jupiter, FL	6
Cameron Young	Jupiter, FL	6
Daniel Berger	Jupiter, FL	6

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.383
I love this place	0.179
Ooh, that’s hot	0.121
Location, location, location	0.010