Mar
A look at TPC
I love this place!
Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.
| Player | History |
|---|---|
| Shane Lowry | 0.625 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0.617 |
| Brian Harman | 0.604 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0.599 |
| Jason Day | 0.583 |
| Tom Hoge | 0.522 |
| Si Woo Kim | 0.518 |
| Corey Conners | 0.506 |
Top of the heap
The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.
| Player | Rank | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 1 | 3040.6 |
| Xander Schauffele | 2 | 2391.0 |
| Rory McIlroy | 3 | 2337.5 |
| Collin Morikawa | 4 | 2153.0 |
| Russell Henley | 5 | 1993.3 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 6 | 1881.3 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 7 | 1830.8 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 8 | 1782.0 |
Sorry, can’t make it
The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.
| Player | Rank | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Clanton | 17 | 1410.2 |
| Jon Rahm | 23 | 1352.4 |
| Alex Noren | 25 | 1272.3 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 26 | 1265.7 |
Ooh, that’s hot
Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.
| Player | Upward change |
|---|---|
| Michael Kim | 2239.0 |
| Justin Thomas | 1896.8 |
| Min Woo Lee | 1415.3 |
| Daniel Berger | 1404.9 |
| Nick Taylor | 1253.6 |
| Sepp Straka | 1161.5 |
| Jake Knapp | 1113.8 |
| Russell Henley | 1082.8 |
Brr, that’s cold
Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.
| Player | Downward change |
|---|---|
| Corey Conners | -1279.8 |
| Sungjae Im | -1154.0 |
| Xander Schauffele | -1090.9 |
| Byeong Hun An | -921.1 |
| Max Homa | -907.1 |
| Viktor Hovland | -838.5 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -740.5 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -691.0 |
Certain skills required
Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Sawgrass course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.
| Stat value | Statistic |
|---|---|
| 0.19 | Greens in regulation |
| 0.08 | Driving distance |
| 0.08 | Scrambling |
| 0.08 | Shots gained putting |
Location, location, location
Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.
| Course fit | Player |
|---|---|
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 73.39 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 73.47 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 73.54 |
| Bud Cauley | 73.56 |
| Sepp Straka | 73.58 |
| Nick Taylor | 73.58 |
| Kevin Roy | 73.66 |
| Sam Burns | 73.67 |
Anyplace but here
Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.
| Course fit | Player |
|---|---|
| Emiliano Grillo | 75.3 |
| Justin Rose | 75.3 |
| Chandler Phillips | 75.3 |
| Peter Malnati | 75.3 |
| Vince Whaley | 75.2 |
| Frankie Capan | 75.1 |
| Davis Riley | 75.1 |
| KH Lee | 75.1 |
Staying close to home
Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Ponte Vedra Beach FL, the event host city.
| Player | Residence | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Echavarria | Ponte Vedra Beach, FL | 8 |
| Ben Kohles | Ponte Vedra Beach, FL | 8 |
| Lanto Griffin | Ponte Vedra Beach, FL | 8 |
| Billy Horschel | Ponte Vedra Beach, FL | 8 |
| Sam Ryder | Atlantic Beach, FL | 9 |
| Ricky Castillo | Jacksonville, FL | 18 |
| Andrew Novak | St. Simons Island, GA | 75 |
| Ben Griffin | St. Simons Island, GA | 75 |
| Greyson Sigg | St. Simons Island, GA | 75 |
| Keith Mitchell | St. Simons Island, GA | 75 |
| Davis Thompson | St. Simons Island, GA | 75 |
| Matt Kuchar | St. Simons Island, GA | 75 |
| JT Poston | St. Simons Island, GA | 75 |
| Zach Johnson | St. Simons Island, GA | 75 |
| Brian Harman | St. Simons Island, GA | 75 |
| Patton Kizzire | St. Simons Island, GA | 75 |
Mathematically speaking
The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.
| Statistic | Correlation to results |
|---|---|
| Top of the heap | 0.378 |
| I love this place | 0.176 |
| Ooh, that’s hot | 0.121 |
| Location, location, location | 0.009 |
