I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Sam Burns	0.691
Adam Hadwin	0.544
Justin Thomas	0.531
Lucas Glover	0.499
Adam Schenk	0.472
KH Lee	0.464
Taylor Moore	0.426
Webb Simpson	0.406

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Xander Schauffele	4	2282.7
Tommy Fleetwood	7	1871.5
Corey Conners	9	1671.1
Shane Lowry	10	1623.6
Justin Thomas	11	1616.3
Sepp Straka	13	1539.8
Luke Clanton	16	1403.7
Sam Burns	17	1401.4

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3048.3
Rory McIlroy	2	2533.2
Collin Morikawa	3	2286.4
Patrick Cantlay	5	1997.3

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Jake Knapp	2154.9
Tommy Fleetwood	1838.1
Akshay Bhatia	1782.5
Sepp Straka	1691.1
Max McGreevy	1690.0
Joe Highsmith	1627.2
Aaron Rai	1609.5
Corey Conners	1593.4

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Xander Schauffele	-1790.4
Sam Burns	-912.3
Cameron Young	-907.6
Viktor Hovland	-890.1
Eric Cole	-847.8
Emiliano Grillo	-658.1
Mark Hubbard	-656.8
Harry Hall	-584.1

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Innisbrook Copperhead course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.22	Driving accuracy
0.14	Shots gained putting
0.10	Shots gained in approach
0.09	Driving distance

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Takumi Kanaya	73.09
Ben Kohles	73.32
Brice Garnett	73.54
Lucas Glover	73.66
Aaron Rai	73.71
Kevin Roy	73.75
John Pak	73.75
Brian Campbell	73.76

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Ryan Fox	76.1
Frankie Capan	75.6
Braden Thornberry	75.4
Chris Gotterup	75.3
Jackson Suber	75.3
Cristobal Del Solar	75.3
Mac Hughes	75.2
Thorbjorn Olesen	75.2

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and Palm Harbor FL, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Byeong Hun An	Orlando, FL	100
Alejandro Tosti	Gainesville, FL	100
Hayden Buckley	Naples FL	150
Nico Echavarria	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150
Lanto Griffin	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150
Ben Kohles	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	150
Ricky Castillo	Jacksonville, FL	175

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.377
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.120
Location, location, location	0.011