I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .590 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Corey Conners	0.770
Matt Kuchar	0.695
Andrew Putnam	0.536
Chris Kirk	0.529
Jordan Spieth	0.527
Ben Martin	0.525
Denny McCarthy	0.525
Si Woo Kim	0.492

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	6	1984.5
Tommy Fleetwood	7	1878.5
Ludvig Aberg	8	1777.9
Corey Conners	10	1726.5
Hideki Matsuyama	12	1585.4
Denny McCarthy	14	1471.0
Keegan Bradley	15	1431.7
Tony Finau	18	1387.8

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3100.7
Rory McIlroy	2	2574.1
Collin Morikawa	3	2309.4
Xander Schauffele	4	2303.1

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Corey Conners	2289.0
Tommy Fleetwood	1850.9
Daniel Berger	1817.8
Akshay Bhatia	1768.0
Denny McCarthy	1655.8
Jake Knapp	1543.6
Justin Rose	1265.9
Bud Cauley	1241.7

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Sam Burns	-983.7
Cameron Young	-898.6
Max Homa	-877.4
Adam Schenk	-629.4
Mark Hubbard	-583.5
Matt Fitzpatrick	-577.5
Beau Hossler	-574.9
Greyson Sigg	-555.8

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC San Antonio (Oaks) course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.12	Putts per GIR
0.07	Greens in regulation
0.07	Shots gained in approach
0.04	Scrambling

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Harry Hall	74.04
Matt Kuchar	74.08
Patrick Cantlay	74.08
Frankie Capan	74.13
Justin Rose	74.19
Ryan Fox	74.20
Quade Cummins	74.23
Ben Kohles	74.23

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Matt Wallace	75.1
Taylor Dickson	75.1
Rico Hoey	75.1
Steven Fisk	75.0
Nate Lashley	75.0
Thriston Lawrence	75.0
Bud Cauley	74.9
Nick Hardy	74.9

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2025 and San Antonio TX, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Beau Hossler	Austin, TX	50
Chandler Phillips	College Station, TX	150
Mark Hubbard	The Woodlands, TX	175
Michael Kim	Houston, TX	175
Ryan Palmer	Colleyville, TX	225
Taylor Moore	Dallas, TX	225
Harry Higgs	Dallas, TX	225
Noah Goodwin	Dallas, TX	225
Frankie Capan	Dallas TX	225
Mac Meissner	Dallas, TX	225
Jordan Spieth	Dallas, TX	225
Si Woo Kim	Dallas, TX	225

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.375
I love this place	0.175
Ooh, that’s hot	0.120
Location, location, location	0.015