I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the Scottish Open. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Matthew Fitzpatrick	0.583
Tyrrell Hatton	0.545
Padraig Harrington	0.524
Alexander Bjork	0.468
Aaron Rai	0.456
Lucas Herbert	0.451
Thomas Detry	0.431
Matt Wallace	0.412

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1608.5
Patrick Cantlay	2	1534.6
Xander Schauffele	4	1498.5
Scottie Scheffler	5	1494.2
Justin Thomas	6	1475.4
Will Zalatoris	7	1360.6
Cameron Smith	8	1312.6
Matthew Fitzpatrick	9	1240.4

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Rory McIlroy	3	1532.4
Dustin Johnson	13	1126.3
Shane Lowry	14	1125.8
Daniel Berger	15	1118.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Will Zalatoris	2199.9
Matthew Fitzpatrick	1550.9
Sahith Theegala	1521.1
Scottie Scheffler	1348.9
Xander Schauffele	1294.4
Chris Kirk	1213.9
Keith Mitchell	1111.4
John Huh	1015.9

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Keegan Bradley	-928.8
Alex Noren	-726.3
Viktor Hovland	-619.5
Erik van Rooyen	-581.9
Tom Hoge	-577.8
Ryan Palmer	-489.3
Sepp Straka	-482.4
Jason Kokrak	-474.1

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Renaissance Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.34	Shots gained putting
0.32	Shots gained in approach
0.24	Shots gained around the green
0.16	Shots gained off the tee

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Cameron Smith	67.08
Ryan Fox	67.28
Matthew Fitzpatrick	67.66
Justin Thomas	67.76
Tyrrell Hatton	67.88
Scottie Scheffler	67.88
Sam Burns	67.93
Padraig Harrington	68.07

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Chris Wood	73.2
Sean Crocker	72.3
Jonathan Caldwell	72.3
Stephen Gallacher	72.2
Scott Hend	72.0
Guido Migliozzi	71.9
Charley Hoffman	71.8
Danny Lee	71.7

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and North Berwick, Scotland, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Victor Perez	Dundee, Scotland	29
Robert MacIntyre	Oban, Scotland	100
Callum Tarren	Darlington, England	125
Tommy Fleetwood	Southport, England	175
Danny Willett	Sheffield, England	200
Matthew Fitzpatrick	Sheffield, England	200
Aaron Rai	Wolverhampton, England	250
Andy Sullivan	Nuneaton, England	250

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.333
I love this place	0.170
Ooh, that’s hot	0.154
Location, location, location	0.000