A quick and accurate look at this week's professional golf.

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard Power Ratings

Dates: Mar. 5-8, 2026. Venue: Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge; Orlando FL. Purse $20 million.

A golfer wearing a blue cap and white jacket, focused and engaged

Scottie Scheffler

Pick	Player	Power number	Observed Odds	Course fit
1	Scottie Scheffler	-50.3	8-1	77.8
2	Russell Henley	0.3	24-1	77.3
3	Rory McIlroy	3.5	25-1	77.0
4	Tommy Fleetwood	7.5	30-1	76.6
5	Xander Schauffele	9.5	30-1	77.0
6	Ben Griffin	15.7	35-1	76.8
7	Patrick Cantlay	16.1	40-1	76.0
8	Jake Knapp	17.5	40-1	78.5
9	Maverick McNealy	20.3	45-1	76.4
10	Hideki Matsuyama	21.4	45-1	77.1
11	Sam Burns	22.6	50-1	76.9
12	Sepp Straka	23.6	50-1	75.8
13	Justin Thomas	24.3	50-1
14	Shane Lowry	24.4	50-1	76.6
15	Si Woo Kim	24.5	50-1	75.2
16	Matt Fitzpatrick	25.2	55-1	75.5
17	Akshay Bhatia	26.0	55-1	77.1
18	Collin Morikawa	26.1	55-1	75.8
19	Rickie Fowler	27.3	60-1	77.8
20	Cameron Young	27.4	60-1	76.5
21	Harris English	28.0	60-1	77.3
22	Ludvig Aberg	28.1	60-1	76.2
23	Harry Hall	28.6	60-1	77.3
24	Robert Macintyre	29.1	65-1	78.2
25	JJ Spaun	29.4	65-1	74.4
26	Jason Day	29.9	65-1	77.9
27	Jacob Bridgeman	30.6	65-1	78.8
28	Keegan Bradley	30.9	70-1	75.5
29	Viktor Hovland	31.2	70-1	75.7
30	Corey Conners	31.4	70-1	75.3
31	Alex Noren	34.4	80-1	77.4
32	Jordan Spieth	34.7	80-1	78.1
33	Nicolai Hojgaard	35.1	85-1	77.0
34	Taylor Pendrith	35.3	85-1	77.5
35	Nick Taylor	37.0	90-1	76.8
36	Kurt Kitayama	37.2	90-1	76.5
37	Andrew Novak	38.2	95-1	76.3
38	Ryo Hisatsune	38.4	100-1	76.5
39	Pierceson Coody	38.7	100-1	76.6
40	Nico Echavarria	38.8	100-1	75.0
41	Michael Thorbjornsen	39.1	100-1	74.8
42	JT Poston	39.7	100-1	76.5
43	Denny McCarthy	40.3	100-1	76.9
44	Justin Rose	41.0	100-1	77.1
45	Lucas Glover	41.1	100-1	74.9
46	Sam Stevens	41.3	100-1	76.1
47	Min woo Lee	41.3	100-1	77.6
48	Chris Gotterup	41.5	100-1	76.1
49	Tony Finau	41.5	100-1	77.0
50	Keith Mitchell	42.2	100-1	75.4
51	Ryan Gerard	42.5	100-1	77.1
52	Adam Scott	42.7	100-1
53	Ryan Fox	43.3	100-1	77.3
54	Daniel Berger	43.4	100-1	75.7
55	Matt McCarty	44.1	100-1	77.3
56	SungJae Im	45.3	100-1
57	Brian Harman	45.7	150-1	75.8
58	Michael Kim	46.2	150-1	77.4
59	Stephan Jaeger	46.4	150-1	77.5
60	Wyndham Clark	46.6	150-1	75.1
61	Sahith Theegala	46.7	150-1	77.6
62	Patrick Rodgers	47.5	150-1	76.9
63	Tom Hoge	47.8	150-1	77.1
64	Bud Cauley	48.0	150-1	75.2
65	Kevin Roy	48.9	150-1	78.4
66	Haotong Li	50.3	200-1	75.5
67	Joel Dahmen	50.8	200-1	76.4
68	Chris Kirk	51.6	200-1	75.8
69	Billy Horschel	52.5	200-1	75.5
70	Andrew Putnam	56.9	350-1	74.3
71	Jhonattan Vegas	58.4	400-1	74.9
72	Aldrich Potgieter	63.2	600-1
73	SH Kim	64.2	600-1	77.1
74	Brian Campbell	66.5	1000-1	77.1
75	Daniel Bennett	77.5	2000-1

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Scottie Scheffler has been no. 1 for 146 consecutive weeks.

Tom Hawley’s Player Ratings (Mar. 2, 2026)

#	Thru Mar 3, 2026	Events	Hawley rating	Previous week
1	Scottie Scheffler	43	3515.3	1
2	Rory McIlroy	50	2240.6	2
3	Xander Schauffele	39	2218.6	3
4	Russell Henley	40	2204.2	4
5	Tommy Fleetwood	52	2201.8	5
6	Jon Rahm	39	1875.6	6
7	Patrick Cantlay	41	1860.7	7
8	Collin Morikawa	46	1844.6	8
9	Justin Thomas	39	1793.4	9
10	Bryson DeChambeau	36	1683.0	10
11	Hideki Matsuyama	48	1646.3	11
12	Sepp Straka	51	1635.4	12
13	Sam Burns	49	1597.1	13
14	Maverick McNealy	52	1551.3	14
15	Shane Lowry	55	1550.5	20
16	Si Woo Kim	59	1542.6	16
17	Ludvig Aberg	42	1536.3	15
18	Ben Griffin	64	1531.9	17
19	Jake Knapp	46	1525.7	19
20	Jackson Koivun	9	1509.3	18
21	Matt Fitzpatrick	50	1493.8	21
22	Robert MacIntyre	60	1459.8	22
23	Viktor Hovland	41	1449.6	23
24	Keegan Bradley	44	1432.7	24
25	JJ Spaun	53	1418.9	26
26	Corey Conners	51	1414.6	25
27	Cameron Young	51	1399.1	27
28	Rickie Fowler	42	1374.8	28
29	Jason Day	40	1367.0	29
30	Harris English	49	1366.2	30
31	Akshay Bhatia	57	1320.0	31
32	Taylor Pendrith	51	1304.6	32
33	Jacob Bridgeman	57	1300.0	33
34	Harry Hall	55	1296.6	34
35	Aaron Rai	54	1276.8	35
36	Tyrrell Hatton	49	1266.1	37
37	Alex Noren	39	1262.0	36
38	Jordan Spieth	41	1261.8	38
39	Adam Scott	47	1209.7	39
40	Denny McCarthy	46	1207.2	40
41	Justin Rose	44	1197.5	41
42	JT Poston	48	1173.6	42
43	Lucas Glover	45	1159.3	43
44	Andrew Novak	54	1138.9	44
45	Kurt Kitayama	46	1125.2	45
46	Tony Finau	45	1116.9	46
47	Daniel Berger	51	1114.1	47
48	Nick Taylor	52	1110.7	48
49	Sungjae Im	50	1085.0	49
50	Chris Gotterup	55	1083.5	50
51	Max Greyserman	54	1064.8	51
52	Nicolai Hojgaard	53	1037.2	58
53	Min Woo Lee	43	1026.0	52
54	Sam Stevens	61	1023.8	54
55	Wyndham Clark	50	1016.2	53
56	Nico Echavarria	56	1014.4	62
57	Ryan Gerard	60	999.2	57
58	Michael Thorbjornsen	42	978.5	55
59	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	54	968.3	56
60	Brian Harman	52	967.4	59
61	Rasmus Hojgaard	52	966.5	67
62	Joaquin Niemann	44	958.5	61
63	Ryan Fox	55	943.4	65
64	Tom Hoge	57	940.9	64
65	Davis Thompson	52	931.0	60
66	Sahith Theegala	51	926.5	66
67	Patrick Reed	57	921.9	63
68	Sebastian Munoz	32	916.9	68
69	Matt McCarty	56	906.5	69
70	Bud Cauley	43	898.0	72
71	Byeong Hun An	49	891.0	71
72	Michael Kim	61	890.5	73
73	Keith Mitchell	53	876.9	87
74	Eric Cole	62	868.8	75
75	Stephan Jaeger	51	865.0	70
76	Abraham Ancer	34	863.3	76
77	Carlos Ortiz	35	848.4	78
78	Pierceson Coody	60	845.5	79
79	Brooks Koepka	38	840.1	96
80	Patrick Rodgers	63	839.7	81
81	Billy Horschel	45	839.5	74
82	Ryo Hisatsune	62	836.1	84
83	Mackenzie Hughes	54	834.5	85
84	Thomas Detry	56	834.2	82
85	Paul Casey	32	831.2	83
86	David Puig	48	817.8	90
87	Will Zalatoris	33	814.7	89
88	Lee Hodges	51	811.5	86
89	Chris Kirk	44	805.9	77
90	Alex Smalley	57	805.7	88
91	Matt Kuchar	42	803.5	80
92	Cameron Tringale	30	799.1	93
93	Rico Hoey	60	782.5	91
94	Marc Leishman	33	778.1	95
95	Dean Burmester	43	776.5	94
96	Seamus Power	53	775.5	92
97	Tom McKibbin	54	769.7	97
98	Cameron Smith	39	762.9	98
99	Talor Gooch	31	759.9	99
100	Thomas Pieters	38	737.8	102
101	Kevin Yu	55	726.2	100
102	Lucas Herbert	37	713.0	101
103	Taylor Moore	53	709.9	126
104	Thorbjorn Olesen	61	706.5	104
105	Mac Meissner	52	700.2	103
106	Bubba Watson	31	699.1	109
107	Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	40	697.5	105
108	Jhonattan Vegas	45	694.2	108
109	Matti Schmid	61	693.5	121
110	Sergio Garcia	38	687.6	110
111	Andrew Putnam	53	675.4	106
112	Max Homa	47	674.8	125
113	Victor Perez	51	670.5	113
114	Gary Woodland	48	669.8	107
115	Sami Valimaki	55	669.6	111
116	Dustin Johnson	39	668.9	117
117	Branden Grace	36	667.7	112
118	Haotong Li	52	665.7	119
119	Beau Hossler	55	664.3	122
120	Matt Wallace	60	659.6	116
121	Jason Kokrak	33	658.7	120
122	Kristoffer Reitan	37	653.7	128
123	Vince Whaley	50	653.4	114
124	Tom Kim	55	647.0	115
125	Max McGreevy	62	639.6	123
126	Kevin Roy	55	636.8	130
127	Charl Schwartzel	36	632.8	118
128	Patrick Fishburn	55	631.6	124
129	Jordan Smith	56	620.3	133
130	Austin Eckroat	52	612.3	127
131	Caleb Surratt	38	611.5	131
132	Richard Bland	34	608.6	132
133	Emiliano Grillo	50	597.3	129
134	Garrick Higgo	48	592.8	135
135	Joel Dahmen	56	592.4	146
136	Josele Ballester	19	583.5	137
137	Anirban Lahiri	36	583.4	138
138	Charles Howell	24	582.4	139
139	Mark Hubbard	60	581.8	140
140	Cam Davis	47	573.6	134
141	Doug Ghim	55	572.6	136
142	Marco Penge	51	569.7	141
143	Brendan Steele	30	562.1	142
144	Louis Oosthuizen	38	557.4	144
145	Chad Ramey	58	552.3	150
146	Ricky Castillo	53	542.8	170
147	David Lipsky	55	539.6	143
148	Harold Varner	32	537.5	147
149	Chandler Phillips	54	532.8	145
150	Angel Ayora	45	520.7	155
151	Jayden Schaper	49	517.3	152
152	Aldrich Potgieter	49	515.6	160
153	Sam Ryder	56	512.4	149
154	Peter Uihlein	42	510.5	159
155	Davis Riley	53	510.2	148
156	Graeme McDowell	30	504.2	161
157	Joe Highsmith	58	501.3	157
158	Nick Dunlap	49	498.8	151
159	Jesper Svensson	53	498.5	156
160	Justin Lower	57	497.1	154
161	Greyson Sigg	52	493.8	162
162	John Parry	45	492.6	158
163	Luke Clanton	31	491.7	153
164	CT Pan	25	479.9	167
165	Henrik Norlander	54	470.8	172
166	Andy Sullivan	57	468.4	168
167	Oliver Lindell	36	468.2	166
168	Phil Mickelson	31	467.0	174
169	Takumi Kanaya	49	465.7	184
170	Thriston Lawrence	59	465.1	165
171	Daniel Hillier	53	464.1	169
172	Karl Vilips	37	463.2	164
173	Wesley Bryan	22	462.0	175
174	William Mouw	47	457.0	210
175	Michael Brennan	11	456.0	163
176	Kris Ventura	50	454.9	171
177	Carson Young	56	452.5	173
178	David Ford	18	451.0	181
179	Antoine Rozner	54	450.7	176
180	Francesco Laporta	43	441.8	188
181	Adam Schenk	58	437.6	177
182	Elvis Smylie	30	433.3	182
183	Dan Brown	46	431.0	183
184	Chan Kim	56	424.3	179
185	Hayden Springer	54	421.5	180
186	Ben Campbell	30	421.1	186
187	Laurie Canter	43	415.6	187
188	Charley Hoffman	38	413.0	178
189	Martin Couvra	35	402.5	190
190	Zach Johnson	34	401.9	194
191	Adrien Saddier	50	397.2	189
192	Nate Lashley	40	396.1	196
193	Isaiah Salinda	49	395.9	191
194	Danny Walker	50	395.7	199
195	Zac Blair	50	395.6	195
196	Austin Smotherman	53	395.5	248
197	Ben Silverman	52	390.2	200
198	Webb Simpson	27	388.9	185
199	Johnny Keefer	35	388.3	192
200	Niklas Norgaard	57	386.6	202
201	Erik van Rooyen	54	386.6	193
202	Matthew Jordan	53	384.4	205
203	Jackson Suber	50	384.0	198
204	Julien Guerrier	51	379.7	206
205	Jorge Campillo	64	378.2	203
206	Henrik Stenson	27	378.0	209
207	Adam Hadwin	52	377.7	197
208	Keita Nakajima	45	376.5	201
209	Adrian Meronk	44	374.3	211
210	Matteo Manassero	50	369.3	212
211	Alejandro Tosti	50	368.2	207
212	Ewen Ferguson	50	366.7	220
213	Matthew Wolff	26	364.8	214
214	Patton Kizzire	49	363.9	244
215	Lee Westwood	26	358.1	217
216	KH Lee	38	355.7	208
217	Shaun Norris	31	355.0	213
218	Ben Kohles	56	352.3	222
219	Lanto Griffin	53	351.0	215
220	Marcus Armitage	52	351.0	223
221	Justin Hastings	13	348.0	204
222	Martin Kaymer	35	345.9	224
223	Adam Svensson	58	345.6	216
224	Joost Luiten	54	344.8	218
225	Jacob Skov Olesen	40	343.1	219
226	Ian Poulter	27	340.6	226
227	Trace Crowe	45	340.2	227
228	Kelly Kraft	14	339.7	229
229	Trey Mullinax	35	339.5	230
230	Alex Fitzpatrick	57	338.7	235
231	Brice Garnett	44	336.1	221
232	Taylor Montgomery	48	335.5	234
233	Brandt Snedeker	49	333.3	225
234	Johannes Veerman	52	332.4	233
235	Matthieu Pavon	55	330.6	252
236	Brian Campbell	48	328.8	238
237	Steven Fisk	52	327.9	241
238	Frankie Capan	52	327.2	231
239	Dylan Wu	50	327.0	228
240	Zach Bauchou	27	324.7	264
241	Sam Horsfield	32	324.4	239
242	Grant Forrest	50	323.3	240
243	Stewart Cink	14	322.2	242
244	SH Kim	53	321.2	232
245	Richard Mansell	50	316.6	243
246	Ugo Coussaud	52	315.5	236
247	Kevin Na	27	310.6	246
248	Jinichiro Kozuma	34	305.8	249
249	Cameron Champ	49	305.7	247
250	Matt Jones	34	301.8	250
251	Joakim Lagergren	37	299.9	245
252	Wenyi Ding	26	298.9	251
253	Todd Clements	55	295.9	257
254	Romain Langasque	55	295.5	255
255	Eugenio Chacarra	53	295.0	254
256	Noah Goodwin	47	294.7	256
257	Andy Ogletree	32	293.8	253
258	Mikael Lindberg	35	288.4	258
259	Nacho Elvira	53	288.2	259
260	Brendon Todd	30	284.2	237
261	Alexander Bjork	17	283.5	261
262	Calum Hill	58	282.9	266
263	Luis Masaveu	21	282.5	263
264	Herman Loubser	8	280.4	262
265	Zecheng Dou	49	277.1	305
266	Brandon Stone	50	277.0	260
267	Thomas Rosenmueller	29	275.0	268
268	Guido Migliozzi	53	275.0	267
269	David Skinns	53	272.7	269
270	Andrea Pavan	57	271.5	270
271	Nathan Kimsey	27	267.9	289
272	Adrien Dumont de Chassart	55	267.0	292
273	Richard Sterne	34	266.3	265
274	Frederic LaCroix	48	264.2	295
275	Dan Bradbury	55	260.3	271
276	Anthony Kim	33	257.1	275
277	Danny Lee	33	255.7	276
278	Jeremy Paul	52	254.9	272
279	Casey Jarvis	61	253.0	304
280	Kevin Streelman	35	251.3	308
281	Matthew NeSmith	24	251.2	274
282	John Pak	51	248.7	277
283	Quade Cummins	54	247.4	285
284	Mito Pereira	28	247.4	283
285	Jacques Kruyswijk	44	246.9	278
286	Jonathan Byrd	28	245.5	273
287	Ren Yonezawa	18	244.7	279
288	Harry Higgs	54	244.0	281
289	Hayden Buckley	54	241.5	280
290	Jason Scrivener	51	239.4	299
291	Will Gordon	46	237.9	286
292	Darius van Driel	54	237.0	287
293	Sebastian Soderberg	40	236.2	284
294	Alejandro Del Rey	53	235.8	309
295	Luke List	54	235.4	288
296	Sam Bairstow	54	235.2	291
297	Kazuma Kobori	43	233.2	300
298	Richard T Lee	20	232.1	302
299	Tom Vaillant	51	232.0	298
300	Sudarshan Yellamaraju	46	230.5	356
301	Rafa Cabrera Bello	58	229.1	321
302	Marcel Schneider	55	228.2	297
303	Ben Schmidt	35	228.2	293
304	Davis Bryant	26	228.1	290
305	Freddy Schott	45	228.0	319
306	Doc Redman	43	227.6	294
307	Daniel van Tonder	17	227.2	359
308	Ian Gilligan	21	226.6	320
309	Rikuya Hoshino	46	226.3	303
310	Blades Brown	29	224.9	296
311	Scott Vincent	34	222.0	311
312	Brandon Robinson Thompson	44	221.4	306
313	Paul Waring	40	221.1	301
314	Kevin Tway	32	219.9	307
315	Chieh-po Lee	33	216.4	315
316	Yu-bin Jang	10	214.9	318
317	Joseph Bramlett	52	214.7	310
318	Brendan Valdez	13	214.4	317
319	Taylor Dickson	51	213.8	323
320	Darren Fichardt	35	211.4	312
321	Danny Willett	41	210.5	313
322	Trevor Cone	51	207.6	316
323	Tapio Pulkkanen	27	206.4	326
324	Niklas Lemke	27	205.4	328
325	Neal Shipley	43	205.0	314
326	Nick Hardy	55	204.2	324
327	Jeff Winther	49	202.8	325
328	Will Chandler	46	202.0	330
329	Adrian Otaegui	59	196.6	358
330	Nicolai von Dellingshausen	45	195.8	335
331	Ben Martin	40	194.7	327
332	Kensei Hirata	44	193.6	331
333	Yuto Katsuragawa	41	193.5	329
334	Ding Wenyi	10	192.9	341
335	David Micheluzzi	46	192.6	338
336	Camilo Villegas	54	190.7	336
337	Robby Shelton	52	189.7	332
338	Bernd Wiesberger	52	189.4	357
339	Connor Syme	50	189.1	333
340	Scott Jamieson	53	189.1	344
341	Ian Holt	32	187.7	345
342	Paul Peterson	55	187.1	348
343	Francesco Molinari	38	187.1	343
344	Ryan Moore	23	186.9	340
345	Eddie Pepperell	33	186.9	392
346	Fabrizio Zanotti	44	186.8	347
347	Ricardo Gouveia	57	185.1	342
348	Kieran Vincent	35	184.9	337
349	Cameron Adam	9	184.5	322
350	Kevin Chappell	32	183.8	346
351	Sean Crocker	48	183.7	350
352	Thomas Rosenmuller	17	182.4	351
353	Gregorio De Leo	25	180.7	339
354	Michael Hollick	14	179.1	334
355	Hunter Eichhorn	17	177.7	386
356	Angel Hidalgo	56	177.3	349
357	Manuel Elvira	58	177.0	352
358	Andrew Wilson	37	175.2	360
359	Edoardo Molinari	31	173.7	363
360	Yannik Paul	52	173.2	361
361	Richie Ramsay	47	173.1	353
362	Andrew Johnston	16	172.4	362
363	Yuta Sugiura	26	172.2	368
364	Marcel Siem	47	172.0	355
365	Chris Korte	10	170.9	458
366	Yubin Jang	10	166.6	366
367	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	57	165.4	364
368	Jens Dantorp	55	164.1	365
369	Benjamin Hebert	25	163.2	369
370	Joel Girrbach	59	162.4	367
371	Kazuki Higa	34	161.9	370
372	Vincent Norrman	24	160.7	380
373	JC Ritchie	10	160.5	354
374	Pat Perez	14	159.9	373
375	John Catlin	47	158.9	372
376	Padraig Harrington	24	158.9	371
377	Shimizu Taisei	16	158.7	378
378	Yosuke Asaji	19	158.0	374
379	Seung-taek Lee	30	157.8	376
380	Jack Senior	34	157.1	375
381	Pontus Nyholm	52	157.1	495
382	Max Rottluff	33	156.4	379
383	Martin Laird	45	155.3	381
384	Oihan Guillamoundeguy	8	154.9	383
385	Joe Dean	44	153.8	406
386	Curtis Luck	9	153.8	389
387	Andreas Halvorsen	25	152.0	388
388	Marcus Kinhult	50	151.5	377
389	Chesson Hadley	40	150.4	387
390	Mitchell Meissner	51	150.2	384
391	Aaron Cockerill	53	148.6	391
392	Troy Merritt	52	148.5	385
393	Kota Kaneko	23	148.0	382
394	David Ravetto	55	145.8	393
395	Lucas Bjerregaard	28	145.5	394
396	Miguel Tabuena	31	145.1	398
397	Trent Phillips	55	144.8	390
398	Seung-yul Noh	52	143.5	399
399	Braden Thornberry	53	142.6	395
400	Ivan Cantero Gutierrez	54	142.4	397

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Puerto Rico Open Power Ratings

Dates: Mar. 5-8, 2026. Purse: $4 million. Venue: Grand Reserve GC; Rio Grande, Puerto Rico.

Rasmus Hojgaard

Pick	Player	Power number	Observed Odds	Course fit
1	Rasmus Hojgaard	48.2	20-1	70.2
2	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	48.9	20-1	70.4
3	Eric Cole	50.8	24-1	70.1
4	Davis Thompson	54.5	30-1	70.2
5	Haotong Li	54.9	30-1	70.3
6	Seamus Power	55.2	35-1	70.3
7	Seamus Power	55.2	35-1	70.3
8	Matti Schmid	55.4	35-1	69.8
9	Joel Dahmen	56.0	35-1	70.3
10	AJ Ewart	56.3	35-1	70.1
11	Vince Whaley	56.8	40-1	70.1
12	Taylor Moore	57.0	40-1	70.6
13	Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	57.5	40-1	70.1
14	Chad Ramey	57.7	40-1	70.2
15	Ricky Castillo	59.6	50-1	70.0
16	Patrick Fishburn	59.7	50-1	69.9
17	Andrew Putnam	60.5	55-1	70.1
18	Matt Wallace	60.5	60-1	69.9
19	Mark Hubbard	61.4	65-1	69.9
20	Emiliano Grillo	61.7	65-1	70.0
21	Takumi Kanaya	61.9	70-1	70.1
22	Jordan Smith	62.3	70-1	69.9
23	David Ford	62.4	70-1	70.3
24	Beau Hossler	62.5	70-1	70.1
25	John Parry	62.6	75-1	70.0
26	David Lipsky	62.8	75-1	69.8
27	Austin Smotherman	62.9	75-1	70.1
28	Doug Ghim	63.5	80-1	69.9
29	William Mouw	63.5	85-1	69.8
30	Kris Ventura	64.4	95-1	70.5
31	Carson Young	64.8	100-1
32	Austin Eckroat	65.0	100-1	69.8
33	Justin Lower	65.0	100-1	70.4
34	Jesper Svensson	65.1	100-1	70.1
35	Dan Brown	65.6	100-1	70.1
36	Sam Ryder	65.6	100-1	69.9
37	Sam Ryder	65.6	100-1	69.9
38	Kieron van Wyk	66.8	100-1
39	Davis Riley	66.9	100-1	70.1
40	Michael Brennan	67.3	100-1	69.9
41	Adam Schenk	67.3	100-1	69.7
42	Jackson Suber	67.4	100-1	69.9
43	Taylor Montgomery	67.5	100-1
44	Zac Blair	67.5	100-1
45	Zecheng Dou	67.5	100-1	70.0
46	Zach Bauchou	67.5	150-1	70.1
47	Hayden Springer	67.5	150-1
48	Ben Silverman	67.6	150-1
49	Luke Clanton	68.0	150-1	69.8
50	Isaiah Salinda	68.2	150-1	69.9
51	Trey Mullinax	68.3	150-1
52	Brandt Snedeker	68.4	150-1	70.3
53	Danny Walker	68.5	150-1	69.8
54	Patton Kizzire	68.5	150-1	70.0
55	Henrik Norlander	68.5	150-1
56	Alejandro Tosti	68.9	150-1	69.7
57	Erik van Rooyen	69.2	150-1	69.6
58	SH Kim	69.3	150-1	70.3
59	Charley Hoffman	69.3	200-1	69.5
60	Dylan Wu	69.4	200-1	70.0
61	Nick Dunlap	69.4	200-1	69.7
62	Adam Hadwin	69.7	200-1
63	Cameron Champ	70.1	200-1
64	Lanto Griffin	70.3	200-1	69.8
65	David Skinns	70.5	200-1
66	Jeremy Paul	70.6	250-1
67	Chan Kim	70.9	250-1
68	Blades Brown	71.1	250-1
69	Jonathan Byrd	71.2	250-1
70	Eugenio Chacarra	71.4	250-1	70.1
71	Adam Svensson	71.4	250-1	70.0
72	Brice Garnett	71.5	250-1	70.2
73	Brendon Todd	71.5	250-1
74	Sudarshan Yellamaraju	71.7	300-1	70.0
75	Ben Kohles	71.8	300-1
76	Adrien Saddier	71.9	300-1	69.9
77	Noah Goodwin	72.0	300-1
78	Matthieu Pavon	72.2	300-1	70.1
79	Frankie Capan	72.4	300-1	69.6
80	Martin Laird	72.6	350-1
81	Adrien Dumont de Chassart	72.6	350-1	69.9
82	Paul Waring	73.5	400-1	69.7
83	Paul Peterson	73.5	400-1
84	Danny Willett	73.7	400-1
85	Kevin Streelman	73.7	400-1	69.9
86	Luke List	73.8	400-1
87	Nick Hardy	74.1	400-1
88	Seung-Yul Noh	74.4	400-1
89	Camilo Villegas	74.4	400-1	70.2
90	Chase Sienkiewicz	74.5	400-1
91	Yanhan Zhou	74.5	400-1
92	Chesson Hadley	74.6	400-1
93	Ben Martin	74.6	400-1
94	Kensei Hirata	74.9	400-1	69.8
95	Aaron Wise	74.9	400-1
96	Tyler Duncan	75.2	500-1
97	Pontus Nyholm	75.5	500-1	69.6
98	Scott Piercy	75.6	500-1
99	Kihei Akina	75.8	500-1
100	Jimmy Stanger	75.9	500-1
101	Chandler Blanchet	76.5	500-1	69.7
102	Harry Higgs	76.6	500-1
103	Nicholas Lindheim	76.9	500-1
104	Neal Shipley	77.2	500-1	69.3
105	Austin Cook	77.3	500-1
106	Miles Russell	77.3	500-1
107	John VanDerLaan	77.4	500-1	69.8
108	Carson Bertagnole	77.5	500-1
109	John II Daly	77.5	500-1
110	Filip Jakubcik	77.5	500-1
111	Michael Kartrude	77.5	500-1
112	Evan Pena	77.5	500-1
113	Reinaldo Simoni	77.5	500-1
114	Hank Lebioda	77.5	500-1	70.0
115	Jeffrey Kang	77.8	500-1	70.0
116	Christo Lamprecht	77.8	500-1	69.8
117	Chris Nido	77.8	500-1
118	Davis Chatfield	78.2	500-1	70.0
119	Gordon Sargent	78.7	500-1	69.7
120	Fred Biondi	80.0	500-1	70.3
121	Marcelo Rozo	80.2	500-1	69.7
122	Peter Malnati	80.7	500-1	69.8
123	Ryan Brehm	80.8	500-1
124	Ryan Palmer	81.2	500-1
125	Rafael Campos	82.3	500-1	70.2

A look at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Mar.2, 2026Thomas HawleyUncategorized

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .595 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .270 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Rory McIlroy	0.837
Scottie Scheffler	0.745
Sungjae Im	0.726
Keegan Bradley	0.716
Corey Conners	0.697
Chris Kirk	0.576
Russell Henley	0.552
Hideki Matsuyama	0.536
Jason Day	0.507
Viktor Hovland	0.493

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Power number\
Scottie Scheffler	1	3515.3
Rory McIlroy	2	2240.6
Xander Schauffele	3	2218.6
Russell Henley	4	2204.2
Tommy Fleetwood	5	2201.8
Patrick Cantlay	7	1860.7
Collin Morikawa	8	1844.6
Justin Thomas	9	1793.4

Sorry, can't make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	6	1875.6
Bryson DeChambeau	10	1683.0
Jackson Koivun	20	1509.3
Aaron Rai	35	1276.8

Ooh, that's hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Ryo Hisatsune	2180.9
Jake Knapp	2039.8
Jacob Bridgeman	1919.7
Pierceson Coody	1708.0
Akshay Bhatia	1510.9
Hideki Matsuyama	1416.8
Nicolai Hojgaard	1252.6
Min woo Lee	1144.2

Brr, that's cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Robert Macintyre	-1458.2
JJ Spaun	-1201.8
Keegan Bradley	-1101.7
Taylor Pendrith	-1035.8
Ludvig Aberg	-1012.1
Lucas Glover	-1008.6
Corey Conners	-996.4
Denny McCarthy	-976.7

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.17	Shots gained putting
0.13	Putts per GIR
0.12	Driving distance
0.10	Greens in regulation

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Andrew Putnam	74.32
JJ Spaun	74.36
Michael Thorbjornsen	74.79
Jhonattan Vegas	74.87
Lucas Glover	74.91
Nico Echavarria	74.97
Wyndham Clark	75.15
Si Woo Kim	75.15

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above

Course fit	Player
Davis Riley	79.1
Jacob Bridgeman	78.8
Jake Knapp	78.5
Kevin Roy	78.4
Robert Macintyre	78.2
Jordan Spieth	78.1
Jason Day	77.9
Scottie Scheffler	77.8

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2026 and Orlando FL, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Kevin Roy	Lakewood Ranch FL	75
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	125
Nico Echavarria	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	125
Ludvig Aberg	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	125
Lucas Glover	Tequesta FL	150
Taylor Pendrith	Palm Beach Gardens FL	150
Denny McCarthy	Jupiter FL	150
Patrick Cantlay	Jupiter FL	150
Shane Lowry	Jupiter FL	150
Bud Cauley	Jupiter FL	150
Justin Thomas	Jupiter FL	150
Sahith Theegala	Jupiter FL	150
Akshay Bhatia	Jupiter FL	150
Rickie Fowler	Jupiter FL	150
Ryan Gerard	Jupiter FL	150
Cameron Young	Jupiter FL	150
Daniel Berger	Jupiter FL	150
Xander Schauffele	Jupiter FL	150
Patrick Rodgers	Palm Beach Gardens FL	150
Corey Conners	Jupiter FL	150

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.369
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.119
Location, location, location	0.009

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