A quick and accurate look at this week's professional golf.

U.S. Open Power Ratings

Dates: June 18-21, 2026. Venue: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club; Southampton NY. Purse: $20.75 million (2025).

A golfer wearing a blue cap and white jacket, focused and engaged

Scottie Scheffler

Pick	Player	Power number	Observed Odds	Course fit
1	Scottie Scheffler	-34.7	14-1	78.5
2	Tommy Fleetwood	-2.0	25-1	80.4
3	Rory McIlroy	3.5	30-1	78.9
4	Ludvig Aberg	3.9	30-1	79.5
5	Xander Schauffele	4.8	35-1	79.7
6	Matt Fitzpatrick	8.9	40-1	78.8
7	Russell Henley	10.0	40-1	80.0
8	Patrick Cantlay	10.3	40-1	79.4
9	Justin Thomas	12.2	40-1	81.2
10	Si Woo Kim	14.7	45-1	79.3
11	Jake Knapp	15.6	45-1	80.2
12	Cameron Young	15.9	45-1	79.7
13	Jackson Koivun	16.5	50-1
14	Maverick McNealy	17.6	50-1	80.4
15	Sam Burns	18.5	50-1	79.6
16	JJ Spaun	18.6	50-1	79.7
17	Ben Griffin	21.3	60-1	80.4
18	Harris English	23.9	65-1	80.0
19	Alex Smalley	24.3	65-1	79.2
20	Collin Morikawa	24.4	65-1	79.2
21	Kurt Kitayama	24.6	65-1	79.2
22	Chris Gotterup	26.2	70-1	79.9
23	Min Woo Lee	27.6	75-1	79.7
24	Justin Rose	27.8	75-1	79.2
25	Hideki Matsuyama	27.9	75-1	80.5
26	Viktor Hovland	28.6	75-1	80.1
27	Robert Macintyre	29.7	80-1	80.6
28	Adam Scott	29.8	80-1	79.3
29	Wyndham Clark	30.0	80-1	79.9
30	Rickie Fowler	30.1	80-1	80.2
31	Bryson DeChambeau	30.6	85-1
32	Sepp Straka	30.7	85-1	80.2
33	Jon Rahm	30.8	85-1
34	Shane Lowry	30.9	85-1	79.6
35	Jordan Spieth	31.1	85-1	80.2
36	Alex Noren	31.2	85-1	80.4
37	Jacob Bridgeman	32.8	95-1	79.7
38	Aaron Rai	32.8	95-1	79.1
39	Tyrrell Hatton	32.9	95-1	82.6
40	Keegan Bradley	33.5	95-1	80.9
41	Harry Hall	35.7	100-1	80.7
42	Ryan Gerard	35.9	100-1	79.5
43	Nick Taylor	36.0	100-1	80.3
44	Akshay Bhatia	36.4	100-1	80.6
45	Gary Woodland	36.9	100-1	80.2
46	Patrick Reed	36.9	100-1	78.0
47	Nicolai Hojgaard	37.7	100-1	80.3
48	Ryan Fox	39.4	100-1	80.4
49	Kristoffer Reitan	39.5	100-1	79.9
50	Jason Day	40.1	100-1	80.0
51	Andrew Novak	40.1	100-1	80.6
52	Joaquin Niemann	40.2	100-1
53	Daniel Berger	40.3	100-1	79.4
54	Matt McCarty	40.9	100-1	80.9
55	Corey Conners	41.2	100-1	80.1
56	David Puig	41.4	100-1	80.4
57	Max Greyserman	42.1	150-1	80.2
58	Ryo Hisatsune	43.2	150-1	79.1
59	Sungjae Im	43.8	150-1	81.7
60	Michael Kim	44.2	150-1	81.2
61	Keith Mitchell	44.5	150-1	79.2
62	Brooks Koepka	44.8	150-1	78.8
63	Sahith Theegala	44.8	150-1	80.6
64	Alex Fitzpatrick	44.8	150-1	78.1
65	Davis Thompson	45.7	150-1	79.7
66	Brian Harman	45.7	150-1	80.9
67	Nico Echavarria	46.0	150-1	81.1
68	Sam Stevens	46.3	150-1	79.6
69	Pierceson Coody	46.5	150-1	79.9
70	Matti Schmid	46.8	200-1	80.2
71	Andrew Putnam	47.3	200-1	80.5
72	Sudarshan Yellamaraju	48.1	200-1	80.1
73	Cameron Smith	48.4	200-1
74	Jackson Suber	48.8	200-1	79.1
75	Dustin Johnson	50.3	250-1
76	Patrick Rodgers	50.7	250-1	80.7
77	Tom Kim	51.1	250-1	79.6
78	Carlos Ortiz	51.4	250-1
79	Lucas Herbert	51.8	250-1
80	Billy Horschel	52.2	250-1	80.8
81	Kevin Roy	53.2	300-1	80.9
82	Chris Kirk	53.8	300-1	80.0
83	Emiliano Grillo	53.9	300-1	80.4
84	Chandler Phillips	56.2	400-1	82.2
85	Michael Brennan	56.3	400-1	80.3
86	Max McGreevy	56.3	400-1	79.2
87	William Mouw	57.7	400-1	79.7
88	John Parry	57.8	400-1	78.9
89	Johnny Keefer	57.9	400-1	78.8
90	Caleb Surratt	58.1	400-1
91	Jayden Schaper	58.4	500-1	78.8
92	Jimmy Stanger	58.7	500-1	80.8
93	Adrien Dumont de Chassart	60.3	600-1	80.6
94	Graeme McDowell	60.4	600-1
95	Laurie Canter	61.6	600-1
96	Peter Uihlein	62.0	600-1
97	Adrien Saddier	63.0	800-1	80.1
98	Ugo Coussaud	63.1	800-1	79.5
99	Nathan Kimsey	63.8	800-1	78.2
100	Dylan Wu	65.5	1000-1	79.2
101	Matthew Jordan	65.6	1000-1	79.9
102	Ben Kohles	66.9	1000-1
103	Ben Silverman	67.1	1000-1
104	Taylor Montgomery	67.5	1000-1
105	Alejandro Tosti	67.8	1000-1	81.5
106	Zac Blair	68.3	1000-1
107	Padraig Harrington	68.6	1000-1
108	Niklas Norgaard	68.7	1000-1	80.2
109	Neal Shipley	68.8	1000-1	80.0
110	Cooper Dossey	69.3	2000-1
111	Cole Hammer	71.6	2000-1
112	Ben James	71.7	2000-1
113	Angel Hidalgo	71.8	2000-1	80.4
114	Brandon Wu	72.1	2000-1
115	Nick Hardy	72.4	2000-1
116	Carl Yuan	72.4	2000-1
117	James Nicholas	72.5	2000-1
118	Rocco Paolo Repetto Taylor	73.0	2000-1	79.9
119	Miles Russell	73.7	2000-1
120	Ryuichi Oiwa	73.7	2000-1
121	Kaito Onishi	73.8	2000-1
122	Jackson Van Paris	73.8	2000-1
123	Filippo Celli	73.9	2000-1	80.4
124	Taihei Sato	74.0	2000-1
125	Marcelo Rozo	74.1	2000-1	79.9
126	Jake Peacock	74.5	2000-1
127	Manav Shah	75.1	2000-1
128	JB Holmes	75.4	2000-1
129	Giuseppe Puebla	75.5	2000-1
130	Preston Stout	75.7	2000-1
131	Robbie Higgins	75.7	2000-1
132	Hamilton Coleman	77.5	2000-1
133	Ryder Cowan	77.5	2000-1
134	Ethan Fang	77.5	2000-1
135	Marek Fleming	77.5	2000-1
136	Vaughn Harber	77.5	2000-1
137	Jackson Herrington	77.5	2000-1
138	Brandon Holtz	77.5	2000-1
139	Mason Howell	77.5	2000-1
140	TK Kim	77.5	2000-1
141	Chase Kyes	77.5	2000-1
142	Greyson Leach	77.5	2000-1
143	Eric Lee	77.5	2000-1
144	Jackson Ormond	77.5	2000-1
145	Mateo Pulcini	77.5	2000-1
146	Logan Reilly	77.5	2000-1
147	Matthew Robles	77.5	2000-1
148	Jake Sollon	77.5	2000-1
149	Arni Sveinsson	77.5	2000-1

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Scottie Scheffler has been no. 1 for 161 consecutive weeks.

Tom Hawley’s Player Ratings (June 16, 2026)

#	Thru Jun 16, 2026	Events	Hawley rating	Previous week
1	Scottie Scheffler	42	3531.5	1
2	Rory McIlroy	46	2380.1	2
3	Xander Schauffele	37	2318.3	3
4	Tommy Fleetwood	52	2244.7	4
5	Russell Henley	40	2219.0	5
6	Ludvig Aberg	43	2047.8	6
7	Jon Rahm	41	1981.8	7
8	Matt Fitzpatrick	50	1980.8	10
9	Patrick Cantlay	40	1960.4	8
10	Justin Thomas	40	1939.7	9
11	Cameron Young	48	1897.6	11
12	Collin Morikawa	42	1767.4	12
13	Maverick McNealy	53	1727.3	13
14	Sam Burns	49	1716.2	14
15	Si Woo Kim	58	1696.3	15
16	Jake Knapp	40	1670.6	16
17	Jackson Koivun	8	1629.3	17
18	JJ Spaun	55	1624.4	18
19	Sepp Straka	50	1624.1	19
20	Harris English	48	1567.8	20
21	Ben Griffin	64	1561.7	21
22	Hideki Matsuyama	50	1534.2	22
23	Viktor Hovland	43	1495.0	28
24	Jordan Spieth	40	1484.3	24
25	Bryson DeChambeau	37	1471.4	25
26	Justin Rose	43	1465.4	23
27	Robert MacIntyre	59	1465.0	27
28	Rickie Fowler	42	1462.4	26
29	Min Woo Lee	49	1415.2	29
30	Chris Gotterup	53	1396.9	30
31	Jacob Bridgeman	58	1391.1	34
32	Shane Lowry	54	1368.7	31
33	Kurt Kitayama	45	1361.7	33
34	Keegan Bradley	44	1357.0	35
35	Akshay Bhatia	54	1343.8	36
36	Adam Scott	45	1326.1	37
37	Alex Noren	39	1318.6	32
38	Tyrrell Hatton	49	1314.1	40
39	Alex Smalley	57	1293.3	41
40	Corey Conners	50	1280.2	39
41	Aaron Rai	51	1273.1	38
42	Harry Hall	57	1248.1	42
43	Bud Cauley	47	1247.7	47
44	Jason Day	39	1234.1	43
45	Nick Taylor	52	1185.8	44
46	Nicolai Hojgaard	55	1184.8	45
47	Daniel Berger	50	1179.2	46
48	Wyndham Clark	51	1161.3	49
49	Patrick Reed	52	1147.6	48
50	JT Poston	49	1118.1	50
51	Ryan Gerard	62	1112.5	51
52	Andrew Novak	57	1100.7	52
53	Joaquin Niemann	45	1090.7	53
54	Gary Woodland	47	1057.8	55
55	Ryan Fox	52	1052.4	62
56	Matt McCarty	59	1043.9	57
57	Denny McCarthy	47	1029.9	54
58	Eric Cole	60	1012.7	56
59	Brian Harman	51	1010.8	59
60	David Puig	49	1003.3	60
61	Michael Kim	62	1003.2	61
62	Sam Stevens	61	983.8	64
63	Brooks Koepka	39	981.4	58
64	Taylor Pendrith	50	975.3	66
65	Kristoffer Reitan	48	954.1	65
66	Max Greyserman	55	954.0	63
67	Michael Thorbjornsen	52	946.4	67
68	Sungjae Im	52	927.7	69
69	Ryo Hisatsune	64	926.2	71
70	Lucas Glover	46	924.7	68
71	Nico Echavarria	56	905.1	72
72	Stephan Jaeger	51	894.3	70
73	Cameron Smith	40	893.9	75
74	Tony Finau	45	885.5	73
75	Sahith Theegala	52	873.7	74
76	Thomas Detry	54	867.8	78
77	Dean Burmester	43	866.5	79
78	Keith Mitchell	54	851.1	82
79	Davis Thompson	50	848.7	76
80	Marc Leishman	35	847.6	83
81	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	54	846.2	77
82	Sebastian Munoz	33	841.6	84
83	Patrick Rodgers	65	835.3	85
84	Tom Hoge	59	832.0	80
85	Carlos Ortiz	37	831.5	86
86	Talor Gooch	32	830.4	87
87	Abraham Ancer	38	822.6	81
88	Rasmus Hojgaard	54	818.9	90
89	Pierceson Coody	62	806.7	92
90	Paul Casey	31	806.5	93
91	Dustin Johnson	40	801.5	94
92	Andrew Putnam	55	795.0	88
93	Branden Grace	39	794.9	89
94	Matti Schmid	59	791.4	91
95	AJ Ewart	17	790.5	95
96	Thomas Pieters	39	763.7	98
97	Will Zalatoris	25	763.2	97
98	Aldrich Potgieter	50	761.0	116
99	Alex Fitzpatrick	57	754.2	105
100	Lucas Herbert	38	753.4	100
101	Mac Meissner	52	743.5	96
102	Tom McKibbin	58	741.0	101
103	Byeong Hun An	46	737.8	102
104	Chris Kirk	44	733.1	99
105	Kevin Yu	55	731.1	106
106	Charles Howell	28	726.8	104
107	Max Homa	47	723.2	114
108	Billy Horschel	45	712.9	118
109	Rico Hoey	61	711.9	103
110	Sudarshan Yellamaraju	49	703.4	132
111	Victor Perez	48	703.0	109
112	Matt Kuchar	40	693.7	113
113	Sergio Garcia	39	681.3	107
114	Matt Wallace	61	679.6	110
115	Jordan Smith	60	677.2	111
116	Cameron Tringale	33	677.0	108
117	Doug Ghim	54	676.9	129
118	Sami Valimaki	55	672.4	119
119	Lee Hodges	49	671.0	112
120	Taylor Moore	52	669.0	117
121	Harold Varner	33	667.8	120
122	Mackenzie Hughes	52	663.7	115
123	Marco Penge	53	657.4	123
124	Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	48	652.2	122
125	Thorbjorn Olesen	59	639.0	121
126	Bubba Watson	35	638.2	126
127	Josele Ballester	28	633.4	130
128	Kevin Roy	54	629.6	124
129	Beau Hossler	53	626.1	128
130	Emiliano Grillo	50	623.1	135
131	Brendan Steele	32	621.1	133
132	Seamus Power	53	621.1	125
133	Austin Eckroat	50	618.1	127
134	Jhonattan Vegas	49	606.3	131
135	Tom Kim	51	595.1	145
136	Jesper Svensson	56	592.5	156
137	Jason Kokrak	34	585.4	137
138	Max McGreevy	61	584.5	134
139	Richard Bland	36	581.2	138
140	Charl Schwartzel	38	574.4	139
141	Anirban Lahiri	38	565.8	136
142	Caleb Surratt	42	565.6	143
143	Louis Oosthuizen	40	565.5	142
144	Jackson Suber	51	563.0	171
145	Haotong Li	55	556.0	140
146	David Lipsky	55	553.3	141
147	Ricky Castillo	53	536.1	146
148	Sam Ryder	55	532.4	147
149	Mark Hubbard	60	532.1	148
150	Michael Brennan	22	531.5	144
151	Chandler Phillips	54	524.4	166
152	Patrick Fishburn	55	523.2	153
153	Wesley Bryan	17	518.3	151
154	Vince Whaley	57	515.5	149
155	Scott Vincent	37	506.8	152
156	William Mouw	47	505.4	173
157	John Parry	54	502.0	150
158	Chad Ramey	58	495.4	154
159	Graeme McDowell	31	492.4	160
160	Karl Vilips	47	491.6	155
161	Phil Mickelson	25	489.5	162
162	Austin Smotherman	54	487.6	157
163	Jayden Schaper	50	486.5	161
164	Daniel Hillier	52	478.9	164
165	Joel Dahmen	56	477.4	159
166	Angel Ayora	52	474.4	167
167	Zach Bauchou	37	473.9	158
168	Steven Fisk	54	471.0	163
169	Brandt Snedeker	48	469.8	170
170	Garrick Higgo	50	469.6	165
171	Matthew Wolff	28	468.5	169
172	Oliver Lindell	44	459.5	174
173	Hayden Springer	53	458.1	168
174	Kris Ventura	50	454.7	172
175	Brice Garnett	46	442.3	229
176	Webb Simpson	23	440.4	177
177	Keita Nakajima	45	438.8	198
178	Peter Uihlein	44	434.8	178
179	Joe Highsmith	59	434.4	175
180	Johnny Keefer	47	433.1	176
181	Jacob Skov Olesen	48	431.0	180
182	SH Kim	46	430.8	179
183	Antoine Rozner	54	429.2	181
184	Nate Lashley	32	424.0	184
185	Laurie Canter	46	422.0	183
186	Andy Sullivan	58	416.6	186
187	Greyson Sigg	45	415.4	187
188	Henrik Stenson	21	414.9	188
189	Isaiah Salinda	44	413.8	190
190	CT Pan	17	413.8	182
191	Francesco Laporta	41	408.5	192
192	Shaun Norris	32	407.7	191
193	Zach Johnson	28	407.1	194
194	Takumi Kanaya	53	402.9	206
195	Jimmy Stanger	17	401.9	362
196	Cam Davis	44	400.7	185
197	Lanto Griffin	53	400.1	189
198	Marcus Armitage	54	399.9	195
199	Dan Brown	47	399.9	196
200	Erik van Rooyen	56	396.0	222
201	Davis Riley	54	395.4	193
202	Eugenio Chacarra	54	391.4	201
203	Ian Poulter	28	386.9	204
204	Lee Westwood	27	385.6	202
205	Blades Brown	39	384.5	205
206	Danny Walker	52	384.1	199
207	Ben Campbell	37	379.4	197
208	Martin Kaymer	36	379.1	208
209	Martin Couvra	44	378.1	207
210	Justin Lower	54	376.0	200
211	Anthony Kim	34	371.5	212
212	Trace Crowe	42	368.7	203
213	Adrian Meronk	44	368.3	216
214	Hennie du Plessis	13	368.2	213
215	Elvis Smylie	40	366.8	214
216	Thriston Lawrence	60	364.0	217
217	Carson Young	58	362.1	221
218	David Ford	23	362.1	219
219	Jorge Campillo	62	361.9	220
220	Adrien Dumont de Chassart	55	361.5	211
221	Luke Clanton	39	360.5	209
222	Richard T Lee	29	355.8	210
223	Adam Schenk	57	355.8	215
224	Adrien Saddier	52	355.2	226
225	Ewen Ferguson	53	355.0	223
226	Chan Kim	57	354.3	218
227	Henrik Norlander	54	352.7	224
228	Kelly Kraft	10	344.5	230
229	Matthieu Pavon	55	343.8	242
230	Ugo Coussaud	52	342.7	227
231	Alexander Bjork	10	340.1	232
232	Nick Dunlap	48	337.8	225
233	Ben Silverman	50	335.0	228
234	Julien Guerrier	53	333.0	231
235	David Skinns	52	329.4	255
236	Ben Kohles	57	329.1	239
237	Joost Luiten	53	323.1	235
238	Luis Masaveu	30	314.8	233
239	Brian Campbell	51	314.7	236
240	Matteo Manassero	50	312.8	238
241	Niklas Norgaard	55	312.7	237
242	Alejandro Tosti	50	311.6	246
243	Zac Blair	51	309.0	240
244	Jinichiro Kozuma	33	308.2	241
245	Trey Mullinax	36	307.5	243
246	Matthew Jordan	52	300.8	245
247	Nathan Kimsey	35	299.4	247
248	Zecheng Dou	49	298.8	244
249	Calum Hill	56	297.7	248
250	Adam Hadwin	52	295.3	253
251	Grant Forrest	49	295.0	250
252	Mikael Lindberg	42	294.7	251
253	Padraig Harrington	23	294.6	234
254	Frankie Capan	48	293.6	252
255	Matt Jones	31	289.3	249
256	Quade Cummins	44	289.0	254
257	Cameron Champ	50	283.3	258
258	Wenyi Ding	34	281.6	257
259	Richard Mansell	45	279.9	259
260	Dylan Wu	51	275.2	260
261	Kevin Streelman	34	274.5	261
262	Darius van Driel	55	273.4	263
263	Nacho Elvira	56	271.1	264
264	Dan Bradbury	54	270.3	265
265	Todd Clements	56	269.7	270
266	JC Ritchie	16	269.4	267
267	Kota Kaneko	32	268.3	271
268	Bronson Burgoon	26	268.3	272
269	Davis Bryant	33	268.1	269
270	Taylor Montgomery	52	267.8	262
271	Guido Migliozzi	51	266.1	268
272	Charley Hoffman	38	266.0	256
273	Stewart Cink	10	265.4	276
274	Gregorio De Leo	32	264.1	273
275	Andrea Pavan	50	263.4	275
276	Johannes Veerman	50	261.7	274
277	Casey Jarvis	62	261.6	277
278	Chandler Blanchet	50	261.6	266
279	Joakim Lagergren	44	260.8	279
280	Kevin Na	25	259.1	280
281	John Pak	50	257.8	282
282	Richard Sterne	41	256.1	286
283	Rafa Cabrera Bello	58	255.8	287
284	Daniel Rodrigues	14	255.4	284
285	Sam Horsfield	34	254.5	285
286	Hank Lebioda	48	253.7	278
287	Kazuma Kobori	48	251.7	288
288	Mito Pereira	22	250.7	292
289	Ricardo Gouveia	58	249.3	291
290	Jacques Kruyswijk	44	248.7	295
291	Paul Peterson	56	248.7	283
292	Bernd Wiesberger	53	247.8	294
293	Adam Svensson	55	246.6	281
294	Noah Goodwin	50	244.8	289
295	Marcel Schneider	55	242.7	298
296	Vincent Norrman	15	241.9	299
297	Seung-Yul Noh	13	240.9	293
298	Yanhan Zhou	12	240.0	300
299	Jeremy Paul	55	239.6	296
300	Andy Ogletree	28	239.1	290
301	Alejandro Del Rey	52	239.0	301
302	Young-han Song	29	238.5	302
303	Danny Willett	46	235.0	297
304	Brendan Valdez	13	233.6	303
305	Yu-bin Jang	10	233.6	304
306	Eddie Pepperell	35	232.6	308
307	Jason Scrivener	51	232.5	305
308	Frederic LaCroix	46	229.5	309
309	Brandon Stone	49	229.2	307
310	Tom Vaillant	52	226.8	311
311	Andrew Johnston	20	226.5	312
312	Pontus Nyholm	52	225.5	306
313	Thomas Rosenmuller	8	222.7	319
314	Brandon Robinson Thompson	51	220.7	316
315	Freddy Schott	44	219.9	318
316	Hunter Eichhorn	24	219.7	328
317	Doc Redman	45	216.2	313
318	Ben Carr	13	215.8	343
319	Sebastian Soderberg	40	215.7	320
320	Patton Kizzire	51	212.4	314
321	Darren Fichardt	33	212.1	324
322	KH Lee	34	211.4	321
323	Chieh-po Lee	35	210.4	322
324	Harry Higgs	55	210.3	327
325	Paul Waring	42	210.2	315
326	Luke List	53	209.5	326
327	Danny Lee	35	208.3	325
328	Ian Gilligan	29	208.1	317
329	Ben Schmidt	42	207.4	329
330	Romain Langasque	55	206.9	323
331	Daniel van Tonder	20	206.8	330
332	Maximilian Steinlechner	20	203.6	334
333	Joseph Bramlett	52	201.1	332
334	Will Gordon	54	200.5	331
335	Kensei Hirata	51	197.3	333
336	Manuel Elvira	60	196.8	338
337	Adrian Otaegui	59	196.8	335
338	Ding Wenyi	10	196.3	336
339	Oihan Guillamoundeguy	15	196.0	339
340	Herman Loubser	10	195.7	310
341	Francesco Molinari	36	194.8	340
342	Seungbin Choi	8	194.2	341
343	Jeff Winther	48	194.0	342
344	Jonathan Byrd	27	190.5	346
345	Taylor Dickson	50	190.5	337
346	Fabrizio Zanotti	43	189.1	345
347	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	56	188.7	349
348	Sam Bairstow	55	188.1	347
349	Niklas Lemke	29	187.0	350
350	Will Chandler	52	185.6	344
351	Jeffrey Kang	47	184.1	357
352	Tapio Pulkkanen	29	183.5	353
353	Hayden Buckley	53	183.1	360
354	Joe Dean	47	182.0	356
355	Ren Yonezawa	20	181.8	354
356	Jonathan Goth-rasmussen	8	181.7	363
357	Thomas Rosenmueller	37	180.2	348
358	Yuto Katsuragawa	47	179.9	359
359	Cooper Dossey	48	175.9	364
360	Camilo Villegas	54	175.5	355
361	Yosuke Asaji	28	175.4	352
362	Marcel Siem	49	174.7	366
363	Michael Johnson	50	174.5	361
364	Travis Smyth	33	174.2	367
365	Curtis Luck	8	173.5	368
366	Justin Hastings	22	171.9	358
367	Rikuya Hoshino	51	171.8	365
368	Michael La Sasso	16	170.8	351
369	Nick Hardy	54	170.6	369
370	David Ravetto	58	169.6	371
371	Richie Ramsay	48	167.7	372
372	Ryan Moore	14	167.6	370
373	Scott Jamieson	53	167.2	376
374	Marcus Kinhult	50	166.1	373
375	Jens Dantorp	54	165.1	377
376	Kieran Vincent	34	164.4	391
377	Cole Sherwood	48	164.1	381
378	Seung-taek Lee	29	161.6	380
379	Ashun Wu	32	161.5	383
380	Ian Holt	40	159.9	375
381	Nicolai von Dellingshausen	47	159.8	382
382	Ross Steelman	48	159.3	378
383	Trevor Cone	50	157.9	379
384	Matthew NeSmith	14	157.8	374
385	Davis Shore	54	157.8	385
386	Yubin Jang	12	156.7	387
387	Benjamin Hebert	25	156.5	384
388	Alexander Levy	36	156.3	386
389	Matthew Anderson	41	155.5	584
390	Alistair Docherty	50	154.2	389
391	Angel Hidalgo	56	153.3	392
392	Andrew Wilson	33	152.5	390
393	Dylan Frittelli	55	151.3	393
394	Joel Girrbach	60	151.0	394
395	Pablo Ereno Perez	14	150.6	395
396	Ivan Cantero Gutierrez	57	150.1	398
397	Mitchell Meissner	51	149.7	388
398	Emilio Gonzalez	43	147.6	401
399	Gordon Sargent	23	147.3	399
400	Jonas Blixt	9	146.9	405

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

A look at the U.S. Open

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed between 2018 and 2025. A value of about .601 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .269 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	Value
Xander Schauffele	0.872
Rory McIlroy	0.869
Collin Morikawa	0.698
Jon Rahm	0.679
Scottie Scheffler	0.673
Hideki Matsuyama	0.669
Brooks Koepka	0.638
Russell Henley	0.608

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	3531.5
Rory McIlroy	2	2380.1
Xander Schauffele	3	2318.3
Tommy Fleetwood	4	2244.7
Russell Henley	5	2219.0
Ludvig Aberg	6	2047.8
Jon Rahm	7	1981.8
Matt Fitzpatrick	8	1980.8

Sorry, can't make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Bud Cauley	43	1247.7
JT Poston	50	1118.1
Denny McCarthy	57	1029.9
Eric Cole	58	1012.7

Ooh, that's hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward Change
Alex Fitzpatrick	1616.1
Alex Smalley	1496.1
Wyndham Clark	1311.8
Rory McIlroy	1245.8
Kurt Kitayama	1201.2
Kristoffer Reitan	1132.7
Jackson Koivun	1126.5
Jackson Suber	1125.7

Brr, that's cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Sepp Straka	-1322.2
Jason Day	-1091.6
Russell Henley	-1039.8
Corey Conners	-1003.2
Akshay Bhatia	-960.7
Sam Stevens	-931.9
Harry Hall	-929.8
Rickie Fowler	-912.2

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the average U.S. Open course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.17	Greens in regulation
0.17	Scrambling
0.14	Putts per GIR
0.11	Shots gained off the tee

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Patrick Reed	77.96
Alex Fitzpatrick	78.09
Nathan Kimsey	78.16
Scottie Scheffler	78.55
Johnny Keefer	78.79
Brooks Koepka	78.80
Matt Fitzpatrick	78.80
Jayden Schaper	78.82

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above

Course fit	Player
Tyrrell Hatton	82.6
Chandler Phillips	82.2
Sungjae Im	81.7
Alejandro Tosti	81.5
Justin Thomas	81.2
Michael Kim	81.2
Nico Echavarria	81.1
Matt McCarty	80.9

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2026 and Orlando FL, the event host city.

Player	Home	Miles
Keegan Bradley	Woodstock VT	200
Sudarshan Yellamaraju	Mississauga, Ontario	425
Jackson Koivun	Chapel Hill NC	500
Alex Smalley	Greensboro NC	525
Jason Day	Forest Lake OH	650
Jacob Bridgeman	Greenville SC	675
Chris Kirk	Athens GA	775
Keith Mitchell	St. Simons Island GA	825
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island GA	825
Ben Griffin	St. Simons Island GA	825
Davis Thompson	St. Simons Island GA	825
Andrew Novak	St. Simons Island GA	825

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.371
I love this place	-0.180
Ooh, that’s hot	-0.118
Location, location, location	0.004

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