RBC Canadian Open

July 24, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,
Matt Kuchar
Matt Kuchar
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Matt Kuchar 3.4 32
2 Dustin Johnson 14.5 8
3 Brandt Snedeker 28.0 DNP
4 Charley Hoffman 30.7 2
5 Jim Furyk 43.4 75
6 Tony Finau 43.7 5
7 Danny Lee 46.6 32
8 JB Holmes 48.0 14
9 Graham DeLaet 49.5 48
10 Chad Campbell 49.8 32
11 Kevin Chappell 52.7 8
12 Bubba Watson 53.3 42
13 Ian Poulter 54.0 3
14 Chez Reavie 54.0 23
15 Anirban Lahiri 54.7 109
16 Keegan Bradley 54.8 14
17 William McGirt 55.0 WD
18 Gary Woodland 55.8 4
19 Adam Hadwin 56.0 120
20 Stewart Cink 56.2 62
21 James Hahn 56.4 10
22 David Lingmerth 56.4 27
23 Kevin Tway 56.6 48
24 Jhonattan Vegas 57.0 1
25 Graeme McDowell 57.1 136
26 Shane Lowry 57.9 96
27 Curtis Luck 57.9 77
28 Mackenzie Hughes 58.2 32
29 Nick Watney 58.5 27
30 Ryan Palmer 59.0 136
31 Scott Piercy 59.5 DNP
32 Daniel Summerhays 59.5 42
33 Sung Kang 59.5 109
34 Sean O’Hair 60.4 10
35 David Hearn 60.6 77
36 Nick Taylor 60.7 77
37 Jason Kokrak 60.8 96
38 Patrick Rodgers 61.5 131
39 Ben Martin 61.6 109
40 Morgan Hoffmann 61.9 67
41 Ricky Barnes 62.1 42
42 Scott Stallings 62.6 62
43 Luke List 62.8 30
44 Jim Herman 62.8 32
45 Harris English 62.9 77
46 Scott Brown 63.1 144
47 Chris Kirk 63.3 70
48 Patrick Cantlay 63.9 48
49 Ollie Schniederjans 63.9 54
50 Robert Garrigus 64.0 5
51 Alex Cejka 64.1 109
52 Cameron Percy 64.3 70
53 Cameron Smith 64.5 131
54 Smylie Kaufman 64.9 27
55 Ryan Blaum 65.0 58
56 Rory Sabbatini 65.0 23
57 Johnson Wagner 65.2 96
58 Retief Goosen 65.7 96
59 Geoff Ogilvy 65.8 96
60 Cameron Tringale 66.1 77
61 Kelly Kraft 66.1 153
62 Hudson Swafford 66.1 32
63 Michael Kim 66.2 96
64 Chris Stroud 66.3 136
65 Vaughn Taylor 66.9 96
66 Seamus Power 67.0 10
67 Brian Gay 67.0 120
68 JJ Henry 67.1 120
69 Billy Hurley 67.1 120
70 Rick Lamb 67.1 149
71 Roberto Castro 67.2 109
72 Brandon Hagy 67.3 5
73 JJ Spaun 67.4 96
74 Spencer Levin 67.4 77
75 Ben Crane 67.8 54
76 Trey Mullinax 67.9 136
77 Grayson Murray 68.0 77
78 Seung-yul Noh 68.0 23
79 Harold Varner 68.0 23
80 Jonathan Randolph 68.1 149
81 Matt Jones 68.2 96
82 JT Poston 68.4 42
83 Camilo Villegas 68.4 54
84 John Huh 68.4 109
85 Sam Saunders 68.7 19
86 Zac Blair 68.9 77
87 Tyrone van Aswegen 68.9 19
88 Kyle Reifers 69.0 144
89 Bryce Molder 69.1 62
90 CT Pan 69.4 14
91 Whee Kim 69.5 109
92 Blayne Barber 69.5 30
93 Andres Romero 69.6 70
94 Dominic Bozzelli 69.7 131
95 KJ Choi 69.7 58
96 Joel Dahmen 69.8 144
97 Vijay Singh 69.9 14
98 Tim Wilkinson 70.0 120
99 Sebastian Munoz 70.2 32
100 Brian Stuard 70.2 109
101 Steve Wheatcroft 70.5 54
102 Shawn Stefani 70.6 77
103 Julian Etulain 70.6 77
104 Will MacKenzie 70.8 DNP
105 Richy Werenski 70.8 42
106 Troy Merritt 70.9 131
107 Ernie Els 71.1 77
108 Tag Ridings 71.2 32
109 Derek Fathauer 71.2 DNP
110 DA Points 71.3 96
111 Boo Weekley 71.4 96
112 Chad Collins 71.4 48
113 Tom Hoge 71.5 32
114 Peter Malnati 71.6 58
115 Brian Campbell 71.6 96
116 Will Wilcox 71.7 DNP
117 Martin Flores 71.8 19
118 Andrew Loupe 71.8 62
119 Brett Stegmaier 72.0 120
120 Andres Gonzales 72.1 10
121 Greg Chalmers 72.4 77
122 Ryo Ishikawa 73.1 109
123 Hunter Mahan 73.2 77
124 Carl Pettersson 73.3 70
125 Greg Owen 73.4 DNP
126 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 73.6 127
127 Mark Anderson 73.7 77
128 Ryan Brehm 73.8 120
129 Ken Duke 73.9 67
130 Hiroshi Iwata 73.9 DNP
131 Jason Bohn 74.0 127
132 Mark Hubbard 74.2 62
133 Cody Gribble 74.4 77
134 Brett Drewitt 74.5 76
135 Ryan Armour 74.5 58
136 Tyler Aldridge 74.6 DNP
137 Bob Estes 74.7 109
138 Nicholas Lindheim 75.1 136
139 Brad Fritsch 75.5 136
140 Steven Alker 75.6 48
141 Miguel Angel Carballo 75.9 70
142 Bobby Wyatt 76.3 144
143 Matt Every 76.6 14
144 Ryan Ruffels 77.4 32
145 Shane Bertsch 83.1 152
146 Mike Weir 84.7 127
147 Max Homa 84.8 144
148 Wyndham Clark 85.1 96
149 Sam Horsfield 85.4 48
150 Hugo Bernard 85.5 77
151 Jared du Toit 85.5 149
152 Matt Hill 85.5 136
153 Austin James 85.5 109
154 Bryn Parry 85.5 77
155 Garrett Rank 85.5 153
156 Charlie Beljan 85.5 DNP
Kramer Hickok late entry 22
Lee McCoy late entry 44
Robby Shelton late entry 69
Johnny Ruiz late entry 81
Drew Nesbitt late entry 85
Daniel Kim late entry 129
Riley Wheeldon late entry 133
Jared Hack late entry 142
Ryan Williams late entry 154
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 252. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Porsche European Open

July 24, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,

Patrick Reed
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Patrick Reed 46.7 19
2 Pat Perez 48.3 DQ
3 Charl Schwartzel 48.3 12
4 Alexander Levy 54.4 2
5 Austin Connelly 54.8 73
6 Jimmy Walker 56.0 33
7 Alexander Bjork 60.3 53
8 Graeme Storm 61.2 131
9 Joost Luiten 61.5 86
10 Matthew Southgate 61.5 DNP
11 Richard Bland 61.5 DNP
12 Bradley Dredge 64.0 60
13 Richie Ramsay 64.4 8
14 Jordan Smith 66.2 1
15 Peter Hanson 66.3 86
16 Anthony Wall 66.3 DNP
17 Jorge Campillo 66.4 37
18 Jamie Donaldson 66.6 16
19 Thorbjorn Olesen 66.8 37
20 Rikard Karlberg 67.0 19
21 Paul Dunne 67.1 75
22 Adrian Otaegui 67.6 5
23 Richard Sterne 67.6 19
24 Benjamin Hebert 67.7 47
25 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 67.9 37
26 Victor Dubuisson 68.9 DNP
27 Gregory Havret 69.1 64
28 Eddie Pepperell 69.1 DQ
29 James Morrison 69.6 64
30 Florian Fritsch 69.9 107
31 David Lipsky 69.9 107
32 Lucas Bjerregaard 70.4 131
33 Alejandro Canizares 70.4 DNP
34 Lee Slattery 70.5 19
35 Ashley Chesters 70.5 8
36 Gregory Bourdy 70.6 55
37 Robert Rock 70.8 71
38 Maximilian Kieffer 70.9 47
39 Oliver Fisher 70.9 55
40 Scott Jamieson 71.0 DQ
41 Julien Quesne 71.2 126
42 Magnus A Carlsson 71.2 47
43 Stephen Gallacher 71.9 12
44 Paul Peterson 72.0 122
45 Nacho Elvira 72.0 12
46 Raphael Jacquelin 72.2 47
47 Mikko Ilonen 72.3 8
48 Eduardo de la Riva 72.6 28
49 Richard Green 72.6 136
50 Kristoffer Broberg 72.8 DQ
51 Ashun Wu 73.0 66
52 Romain Wattel 73.2 86
53 Lasse Jensen 73.2 114
54 Matteo Manassero 73.4 75
55 Trevor Fisher 73.5 19
56 Ricardo Gouveia 73.7 75
57 Thomas Bjorn 73.7 33
58 Chris Paisley 73.7 55
59 Hennie Otto 73.8 122
60 Richard McEvoy 73.8 28
61 Jbe Kruger 73.8 86
62 Chris Hanson 73.9 19
63 Niclas Fasth 74.0 122
64 Prom Meesawat 74.2 86
65 Justin Walters 74.3 75
66 Marcel Siem 74.3 60
67 Thomas Detry 74.4 37
68 Craig Lee 74.5 53
69 Nino Bertasio 74.5 60
70 Carlos Pigem 74.6 101
71 Gary Stal 74.6 114
72 David Howell 74.6 WD
73 Felipe Aguilar 74.7 107
74 Max Orrin 74.9 86
75 Tom Lewis 75.0 66
76 Ben Evans 75.0 DQ
77 Laurie Canter 75.1 37
78 Michael Hoey 75.1 WD
79 Marc Warren 75.2 134
80 Jens Fahrbring 75.2 5
81 Sam Walker 75.3 86
82 Michael Jonzon 75.3 37
83 Jeff Winther 75.4 126
84 Julian Suri 75.5 16
85 Bernd Ritthammer 75.6 114
86 John Parry 75.6 DQ
87 Zander Lombard 75.7 5
88 Daniel Brooks 75.7 126
89 Steve Webster 75.9 73
90 Scott Henry 75.9 107
91 Keith Horne 76.0 126
92 Simon Khan 76.0 37
93 Terry Pilkadaris 76.0 86
94 Johan Edfors 76.0 3
95 Stuart Manley 76.2 47
96 Roope Kakko 76.3 86
97 Mark Foster 76.3 33
98 Jaco Ahlers 76.5 55
99 Siddikur Rahman 76.5 3
100 Alvaro Quiros 76.6 142
101 Matthew Nixon 76.6 86
102 Romain Langasque 76.6 86
103 Nathan Holman 76.8 138
104 Sebastien Gros 76.8 19
105 Ashley Hall 77.2 107
106 Clement Berardo 77.2 DNP
107 Jake Roos 77.3 136
108 Adilson da Silva 78.0 114
109 Justin Hicks 78.1 101
110 Simon Dyson 78.1 71
111 Duncan Stewart 78.5 DQ
112 Phachara Khongwatmai 78.6 101
113 Nathan Kimsey 78.7 75
114 Pep Angles 78.8 75
115 Ryan McCarthy 79.1 19
116 Alexander Knappe 79.6 12
117 Jens Dantorp 80.1 55
118 Poom Saksansin 80.3 28
119 Sebastian Soderberg 80.4 75
120 Sebastian Heisele 80.7 16
121 Joel Stalter 80.8 101
122 Chase Koepka 81.1 28
123 Marcus Armitage 81.1 138
124 Paul Maddy 81.1 37
125 Anton Karlsson 81.1 107
126 Daniel Fox 81.3 107
127 Danthai Boonma 81.7 19
128 Matt Wallace 82.0 101
129 Jose-Filipe Lima 82.6 37
130 Ricardo Gonzalez 82.6 86
131 Thitiphun Chauyprakong 82.8 75
132 Shih-chang Chan 82.9 28
133 Pontus Widegren 83.4 37
134 Pavit Tangkamolprasert 84.0 114
135 Steven Tiley 84.2 66
136 Gary King 84.2 134
137 Damien Perrier 84.7 126
138 Jamie Rutherford 84.8 75
139 Niclas Johansson 85.0 DQ
140 Rafa Echenique 85.2 114
141 Borja Etchart 85.5 101
142 Andreas Halvorsen 85.5 75
143 Luca Cianchetti 85.5 8
144 Sean Crocker 85.5 33
145 Paul McBride 85.5 47
146 Will Zalatoris 85.5 75
147 Niklas Adank 85.5 141
148 Max Kramer 85.5 86
149 Benedict Staben 85.5 122
150 Yan-wei Lui 85.5 DNP
151 Andrea Maestroni 85.5 DQ
152 Piya Swangarunporn 85.6 140
153 Richard Finch 85.7 86
154 Richard S Johnson 85.9 DQ
Dimitrios Papadatos late entry 63
Hinrich Arkenau late entry 69
Yan Liu late entry 70
Oliver Bekker late entry 90
Chris Selfridge late entry 116
Brendon Matthews late entry 117
Petr Dedek late entry 133
Zane Scotland late entry 155
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 109. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (July 23, 2017)

July 24, 2017 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson remains no. 1 for the 19th week in a row.
# Thru July 23, 2017 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Dustin Johnson 46 1809 1
2 Jordan Spieth 50 1602 2
3 Rory McIlroy 42 1595 3
4 Adam Scott 44 1450 4
5 Paul Casey 49 1438 8
6 Jason Day 40 1425 5
7 Rickie Fowler 54 1424 6
8 Hideki Matsuyama 49 1410 9
9 Matt Kuchar 59 1392 11
10 Jon Rahm 29 1352 7
11 Sergio Garcia 40 1339 10
12 Brooks Koepka 51 1311 14
13 Justin Rose 47 1246 12
14 Phil Mickelson 46 1237 13
15 Henrik Stenson 49 1171 15
16 Louis Oosthuizen 48 1085 16
17 Francesco Molinari 47 1078 17
18 Brandt Snedeker 55 1072 19
19 Patrick Reed 68 1051 18
20 Marc Leishman 52 1051 29
21 Daniel Berger 54 1034 22
22 Jason Dufner 51 1029 28
23 Justin Thomas 54 1023 20
24 Bill Haas 53 1018 21
25 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 59 1008 30
26 Branden Grace 53 1003 31
27 Charles Howell 51 986 23
28 Charl Schwartzel 48 981 24
29 Steve Stricker 30 977 27
30 Kevin Kisner 56 973 26
31 Brendan Steele 50 971 25
32 Charley Hoffman 57 943 32
33 Webb Simpson 49 895 34
34 Pat Perez 36 881 33
35 Brian Harman 60 873 35
36 JB Holmes 53 871 36
37 Ryan Moore 47 857 37
38 Tony Finau 55 856 40
39 Alex Noren 42 852 49
40 Gary Woodland 52 839 38
41 Tyrrell Hatton 50 832 39
42 Zach Johnson 53 818 48
43 Jimmy Walker 54 812 42
44 Bubba Watson 47 810 47
45 Kevin Chappell 53 810 41
46 Russell Henley 51 807 46
47 Billy Horschel 51 806 43
48 Kevin Na 53 804 45
49 Emiliano Grillo 56 800 44
50 Martin Kaymer 54 750 50
51 Ryan Palmer 45 747 53
52 Jamie Lovemark 56 742 57
53 Bernd Wiesberger 58 732 51
54 Kyle Stanley 56 730 52
55 Thomas Pieters 50 721 55
56 Tommy Fleetwood 55 716 60
57 William McGirt 55 708 54
58 Bud Cauley 41 703 59
59 Adam Hadwin 53 700 56
60 Graham DeLaet 43 699 61
61 Lucas Glover 49 695 62
62 Byeong Hun An 56 685 58
63 Lee Westwood 46 680 67
64 Ross Fisher 48 674 64
65 Xander Schauffele 27 668 82
66 Shane Lowry 49 662 63
67 Kevin Streelman 53 661 66
68 David Lingmerth 61 653 68
69 Martin Laird 50 648 65
70 Keegan Bradley 55 643 72
71 Kevin Tway 30 642 73
72 Si-woo Kim 60 633 69
73 Scott Piercy 54 633 78
74 Danny Lee 68 631 74
75 Soren Kjeldsen 61 630 77
76 Russell Knox 61 625 71
77 Graeme McDowell 57 625 81
78 Wesley Bryan 29 617 70
79 Andy Sullivan 57 616 75
80 Jhonattan Vegas 58 613 76
81 Chad Campbell 57 610 84
82 Oscar Fraustro 8 609 96
83 Sean O’Hair 56 609 80
84 Ian Poulter 48 606 98
85 Jim Furyk 35 604 79
86 Chez Reavie 54 602 87
87 Stewart Cink 48 595 83
88 Jason Kokrak 55 591 89
89 Sung Kang 61 584 90
90 Nick Watney 30 580 91
91 Colt Knost 36 579 92
92 Daniel Summerhays 58 578 88
93 Mackenzie Hughes 28 573 95
94 Matthew Fitzpatrick 60 569 93
95 Hideto Tanihara 18 564 85
96 James Hahn 53 560 94
97 Anirban Lahiri 54 550 97
98 Chris Kirk 56 545 99
99 Jim Herman 53 536 100
100 Scott Brown 54 533 101
101 Harris English 59 532 102
102 Haotong Li 43 515 135
103 Ollie Schniederjans 37 504 103
104 Luke List 57 502 104
105 David Hearn 61 493 105
106 Smylie Kaufman 57 489 106
107 Nick Taylor 55 486 107
108 Aaron Baddeley 53 481 116
109 Hudson Swafford 57 480 108
110 Chris Wood 57 474 122
111 Jerry Kelly 35 474 111
112 Patrick Rodgers 55 469 113
113 Joost Luiten 52 468 112
114 Jonas Blixt 51 464 114
115 Danny Willett 49 461 109
116 Cameron Smith 54 460 110
117 Luke Donald 52 453 117
118 Peter Uihlein 44 451 119
119 Robert Streb 59 440 115
120 Padraig Harrington 48 440 118
121 Ben Martin 57 433 123
122 Robert Garrigus 51 432 124
123 Aaron Wise 8 424 121
124 JJ Spaun 29 421 120
125 Billy Hurley 49 420 125
126 Austin Connelly 11 416 304
127 Morgan Hoffmann 56 415 126
128 Alex Cejka 57 415 127
129 Michael Kim 55 403 128
130 Andrew Johnston 50 403 144
131 John Huh 56 399 129
132 Scott Stallings 53 397 138
133 Kelly Kraft 52 397 131
134 Harold Varner 60 394 134
135 Grayson Murray 27 393 149
136 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 54 391 133
137 Richard Bland 53 390 157
138 Cameron Tringale 56 387 142
139 Roberto Castro 56 387 130
140 Seung-yul Noh 56 384 137
141 Patton Kizzire 55 384 132
142 Vaughn Taylor 51 380 139
143 Retief Goosen 37 376 150
144 Johnson Wagner 53 376 146
145 Freddie Jacobson 35 372 143
146 Thorbjorn Olesen 55 370 140
147 Thongchai Jaidee 55 368 163
148 Bryson DeChambeau 48 367 141
149 Alexander Bjork 20 365 136
150 Pablo Larrazabal 51 363 145
151 Ryan Blaum 34 363 169
152 John Senden 51 361 152
153 Jon Curran 45 358 154
154 Victor Dubuisson 34 356 151
155 Trey Mullinax 34 356 147
156 Brian Gay 37 353 179
157 Bryce Molder 56 352 156
158 Tim Clark 11 352 170
159 Ricky Barnes 63 350 165
160 Curtis Luck 17 350 159
161 Kyle Reifers 68 350 161
162 Blayne Barber 51 350 153
163 Bradley Dredge 44 350 158
164 Matt Jones 52 349 148
165 Geoff Ogilvy 48 347 164
166 Nicolas Colsaerts 57 345 168
167 Jorge Campillo 52 344 167
168 Jordan L Smith 13 342 166
169 Ryan Fox 35 340 155
170 David Toms 25 337 171
171 JT Poston 28 336 160
172 Brandon Hagy 28 334 162
173 Peter Hanson 36 334 172
174 Meen-whee Kim 16 333 175
175 Michael Thompson 54 330 180
176 Fabian Gomez 54 330 177
177 Chris Stroud 51 325 178
178 Sam Saunders 52 325 173
179 Cameron Percy 45 321 191
180 Jonathan Byrd 23 317 174
181 Fabrizio Zanotti 47 314 181
182 Dominic Bozzelli 27 313 176
183 Matthew Southgate 48 312 254
184 Richard Sterne 33 312 188
185 Brian Stuard 54 310 182
186 Jamie Donaldson 46 310 189
187 Gregory Bourdy 56 307 193
188 Spencer Levin 65 306 192
189 Tyrone van Aswegen 65 304 186
190 Jaco van Zyl 46 303 194
191 Alexander Levy 48 301 187
192 Seamus Power 29 301 212
193 Jonathan Randolph 30 301 185
194 CT Pan 35 301 196
195 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 43 298 190
196 Rob Oppenheim 33 298 201
197 Bronson Burgoon 32 298 199
198 Tim Wilkinson 52 298 203
199 Henrik Norlander 34 297 204
200 Lee McCoy 10 296 205
201 Zac Blair 67 296 202
202 KJ Choi 48 296 197
203 Richie Ramsay 46 295 230
204 Justin Leonard 16 295 198
205 Derek Fathauer 60 294 195
206 George Coetzee 49 292 207
207 Kyung-tae Kim 19 292 183
208 Julian Etulain 26 291 210
209 Vijay Singh 44 291 211
210 Ben Crane 53 290 214
211 Troy Merritt 60 290 208
212 Camilo Villegas 59 290 213
213 Yuta Ikeda 14 286 184
214 Boo Weekley 57 285 209
215 Whee Kim 42 284 216
216 Will Wilcox 39 283 200
217 Benjamin Hebert 52 279 217
218 Scott Hend 58 278 215
219 Paul Dunne 45 278 218
220 Anthony Wall 43 278 219
221 Thomas Aiken 57 276 222
222 Joel Dahmen 17 272 206
223 Jordan Smith 8 271 225
224 Rikard Karlberg 46 270 226
225 David Horsey 50 268 221
226 Andrew Loupe 52 264 223
227 Sebastian Munoz 17 256 220
228 Alejandro Canizares 48 256 228
229 Rick Lamb 19 255 224
230 Tag Ridings 24 254 267
231 David Lipsky 58 253 227
232 Brett Coletta 8 250 235
233 David Drysdale 59 250 253
234 Jason Gore 40 249 231
235 Julien Quesne 48 248 232
236 Shawn Stefani 57 247 246
237 Jeunghun Wang 47 247 229
238 DA Points 46 247 236
239 Martin Piller 29 247 237
240 Andrew Dodt 46 246 243
241 John Peterson 22 245 239
242 Will MacKenzie 45 244 240
243 Chesson Hadley 41 243 244
244 Andres Gonzales 56 242 234
245 Steve Wheatcroft 48 241 248
246 Callum Shinkwin 37 240 233
247 Dean Burmester 29 240 241
248 Robby Shelton 11 238 238
249 JJ Henry 56 235 245
250 Chad Collins 52 230 269
251 Brett Stegmaier 57 230 247
252 Matthieu Pavon 21 229 242
253 Joakim Lagergren 50 226 249
254 Eddie Pepperell 42 225 252
255 James Morrison 54 225 250
256 Andrew Landry 24 221 256
257 Mikko Ilonen 45 221 255
258 Martin Flores 35 218 268
259 Scott Langley 35 216 259
260 Wes Roach 27 215 261
261 Maximilian Kieffer 50 212 260
262 Luke Guthrie 29 212 262
263 Tom Hoge 50 211 257
264 Andres Romero 30 211 251
265 Renato Paratore 59 209 266
266 Richy Werenski 25 209 281
267 Robert Rock 47 206 270
268 Dylan Frittelli 30 205 258
269 Anders Hansen 14 203 274
270 Nacho Elvira 51 203 272
271 Graeme Storm 54 203 271
272 Rory Sabbatini 49 202 264
273 Adrian Otaegui 52 198 279
274 Stephen Gallacher 44 198 276
275 Johan Carlsson 51 197 278
276 Brian Campbell 20 196 265
277 Scott Jamieson 53 195 282
278 Brandon Stone 40 195 273
279 Mikko Korhonen 44 191 285
280 Ashley Chesters 16 190 286
281 Stuart Appleby 44 188 283
282 Ashun Wu 34 188 287
283 Hiroshi Iwata 46 187 277
284 Ryo Ishikawa 30 187 275
285 Angel Cabrera 38 186 280
286 Rod Pampling 48 184 288
287 Romain Wattel 51 183 289
288 Paul Waring 21 182 284
289 Ricardo Gouveia 47 181 290
290 Matteo Manassero 48 180 293
291 Lee Slattery 56 179 292
292 Cody Gribble 29 179 297
293 Florian Fritsch 29 178 294
294 Romain Langasque 23 176 299
295 Yusaku Miyazato 9 175 263
296 Trevor Fisher 38 175 298
297 Miguel Angel Jimenez 26 175 301
298 Ken Duke 47 175 296
299 Ernie Els 52 174 295
300 Raphael Jacquelin 51 171 303
301 Steve Marino 42 168 309
302 Greg Owen 49 167 306
303 Ryan Brehm 25 166 300
304 Lucas Bjerregaard 58 166 308
305 Michael Putnam 23 166 310
306 Adrien Saddier 13 166 313
307 Marcus Fraser 48 165 311
308 Bernd Ritthammer 31 165 314
309 Tyler Aldridge 47 165 302
310 Peter Malnati 63 163 326
311 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 32 161 307
312 Oliver Fisher 54 161 317
313 Brice Garnett 27 160 316
314 Rashid Khan 14 160 319
315 Shubhankar Sharma 9 160 318
316 Kristoffer Broberg 43 160 315
317 Mark Anderson 19 159 305
318 Daniel Im 43 157 322
319 Thomas Detry 20 157 321
320 Gregory Havret 54 156 324
321 Lasse Jensen 50 156 325
322 Bill Lunde 14 156 291
323 Mark Hubbard 61 156 323
324 Jeff Overton 30 155 320
325 Magnus A Carlsson 47 154 327
326 Chris Hanson 39 154 328
327 Michael Hendry 8 154 329
328 Thomas Bjorn 35 148 331
329 Scott Pinckney 36 147 332
330 Jason Scrivener 50 146 334
331 Nino Bertasio 45 146 335
332 Brett Drewitt 20 144 352
333 Chris Paisley 55 143 337
334 Marcel Siem 50 143 338
335 YE Yang 34 142 330
336 Greg Chalmers 46 141 339
337 Justin Hicks 21 140 343
338 Ryan Ruffels 16 139 344
339 Darren Fichardt 44 139 336
340 Wade Ormsby 37 138 342
341 Ryan Armour 27 137 360
342 Tim Herron 27 137 345
343 Robert Karlsson 42 137 347
344 Prayad Marksaeng 10 136 312
345 Alex Prugh 22 134 354
346 Thanyakorn Khrongpha 10 134 349
347 Carlos Ortiz 38 133 348
348 Steve Allan 8 133 353
349 Mark Wilson 42 133 340
350 Prom Meesawat 40 132 351
351 Marc Warren 53 132 350
352 Felipe Aguilar 48 132 355
353 Jbe Kruger 39 131 346
354 Jake Higginbottom 9 131 357
355 Jason Bohn 51 129 341
356 Andrew Putnam 8 129 361
357 Jordan Niebrugge 9 128 356
358 Paul Peterson 48 125 363
359 Brett Rumford 39 125 362
360 Adilson da Silva 26 123 366
361 David Howell 45 123 364
362 Nicholas Lindheim 25 122 359
363 S Chikarangappa 10 122 370
364 Eduardo de la Riva 46 122 369
365 John Merrick 31 121 418
366 Hunter Stewart 8 120 365
367 Haydn Porteous 47 119 371
368 Ashley Hall 9 119 333
369 Panuphol Pittayarat 17 119 374
370 Justin Walters 50 119 373
371 Rahil Gangjee 18 117 377
372 Jacques Blaauw 13 117 376
373 Erik Compton 31 117 372
374 Phachara Khongwatmai 19 117 358
375 Carlos Pigem 33 116 380
376 Hunter Mahan 52 115 368
377 Richard Lee 18 115 386
378 Christofer Blomstrand 8 115 383
379 Dawie van der Walt 36 115 381
380 Sam Brazel 33 113 385
381 Angelo Que 12 113 384
382 Pep Angles 20 113 387
383 Abraham Ancer 27 113 391
384 Hennie Otto 29 111 390
385 David Bransdon 8 111 389
386 Shiv Kapur 34 111 375
387 Max Orrin 17 110 393
388 George McNeill 41 110 378
389 Brendon de Jonge 51 109 382
390 Duncan Stewart 23 108 394
391 Masahiro Kawamura 16 108 392
392 Simon Yates 8 107 399
393 Nathan Kimsey 17 107 396
394 Rhein Gibson 32 107 398
395 Nick Cullen 18 107 397
396 Craig Lee 37 104 400
397 Steven Alker 31 103 403
398 Davis Love 30 103 388
399 Julien Guerrier 9 103 405
400 Matthew Griffin 9 102 367
More | Less

A look at the Open Championship (and Barbasol)

July 18, 2017 Thomas Hawley

It’s been a long time since one of the golf majors has loomed with a tightly bunched field of contenders to win such as the 146th Open Championship has. Two-time major winner (the 2015 Masters and U.S. Open) Jordan Spieth is the pick here. In a quick look at the top 10 contenders in the last three occurrences of each of the majors, a statistical profile shows none of them with anywhere near the narrow range of finish estimates as we have this week. Ranked right behind Spieth are five-time major winner Phil Mickelson and world no. 1 Dustin Johnson. The field includes all of the top 50 players in the world per the Hawley Ratings. (The highest ranked player who is missing is no. 53 Ryan Palmer.)

Looking at the field from some other perspectives, defending champ Henrik Stenson Read more

146th Open Championship

July 16, 2017 Thomas Hawley , ,
Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth
Pick Player Hawley Number Actual Finish
1 Jordan Spieth 13.5 1
2 Phil Mickelson 14.7 123
3 Dustin Johnson 16.8 54
4 Rickie Fowler 17.6 22
5 Sergio Garcia 19.6 37
6 Paul Casey 22.1 11
7 Matt Kuchar 23.8 2
8 Adam Scott 24.2 22
9 Rory McIlroy 24.9 4
10 Hideki Matsuyama 26.7 14
11 Henrik Stenson 28.7 11
12 Jon Rahm 28.7 44
13 Marc Leishman 29.6 6
14 Louis Oosthuizen 33.1 137
15 Bill Haas 34.2 113
16 Justin Rose 34.6 54
17 Francesco Molinari 35.4 89
18 Jason Day 35.6 27
19 Steve Stricker 37.0 37
20 Brandt Snedeker 38.8 DNP
21 Charley Hoffman 39.1 20
22 Daniel Berger 39.2 27
23 Justin Thomas 39.3 89
24 Charles Howell 40.8 113
25 Brendan Steele 41.2 148
26 Brian Harman 41.2 99
27 Brooks Koepka 41.4 6
28 Kevin Kisner 41.5 54
29 Patrick Reed 41.7 99
30 Pat Perez 42.8 113
31 Jason Dufner 43.5 14
32 Tommy Fleetwood 43.6 27
33 Zach Johnson 43.7 14
34 Alex Noren 43.8 6
35 Tony Finau 44.7 27
36 Charl Schwartzel 45.1 62
37 Branden Grace 46.2 6
38 JB Holmes 46.4 54
39 Russell Henley 46.6 37
40 Webb Simpson 46.9 37
41 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 48.3 4
42 Kyle Stanley 49.6 99
43 Xander Schauffele 50.2 20
44 Ross Fisher 50.9 44
45 Tyrrell Hatton 51.1 131
46 Ryan Moore 51.2 99
47 Stewart Cink 51.3 123
48 Bernd Wiesberger 51.4 74
49 Lee Westwood 52.1 27
50 Shane Lowry 52.3 123
51 Martin Kaymer 52.3 37
52 Jamie Lovemark 52.5 22
53 Kevin Chappell 52.7 99
54 Gary Woodland 53.2 70
55 Anirban Lahiri 53.8 78
56 Thomas Pieters 54.1 44
57 Billy Horschel 54.2 137
58 Kevin Na 54.4 44
59 Andy Sullivan 55.1 70
60 Jimmy Walker 55.3 54
61 Adam Hadwin 55.4 148
62 Emiliano Grillo 56.2 113
63 Martin Laird 57.1 89
64 Matthew Fitzpatrick 57.4 44
65 Alexander Bjork 57.6 99
66 Ian Poulter 57.9 14
67 Hideto Tanihara 58.0 137
68 Bubba Watson 58.3 27
69 Wesley Bryan 58.3 137
70 Padraig Harrington 58.8 78
71 Jhonattan Vegas 59.1 131
72 Ryan Fox 59.5 78
73 Bryson DeChambeau 59.6 148
74 Sung Kang 59.8 44
75 William McGirt 59.9 113
76 Byeong Hun An 60.1 99
77 Peter Uihlein 60.3 44
78 Soren Kjeldsen 60.5 37
79 Si-woo Kim 61.1 78
80 Cameron Smith 61.3 113
81 Joost Luiten 61.5 44
82 Sean O’Hair 62.2 62
83 Yuta Ikeda 63.9 123
84 Thorbjorn Olesen 64.0 62
85 Pablo Larrazabal 64.1 78
86 Haotong Li 64.3 3
87 Russell Knox 64.5 89
88 Robert Streb 65.2 89
89 Kyung-tae Kim 65.4 62
90 Danny Willett 65.4 76
91 Andrew Johnston 65.5 27
92 Chris Wood 65.6 14
93 Richard Bland 66.6 22
94 Aaron Baddeley 67.2 27
95 Matthieu Pavon 67.6 137
96 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 67.7 62
97 Andrew Dodt 68.1 44
98 Thongchai Jaidee 68.3 27
99 David Drysdale 68.7 27
100 Fabrizio Zanotti 69.0 89
101 Roberto Castro 69.0 78
102 Alexander Levy 69.1 78
103 Callum Shinkwin 69.2 137
104 Richie Ramsay 69.3 22
105 Scott Hend 69.5 54
106 David Horsey 69.5 123
107 David Lipsky 69.7 78
108 Sebastian Munoz 69.8 148
109 Ernie Els 71.3 61
110 Matthew Southgate 71.4 6
111 Dylan Frittelli 71.4 99
112 Jeunghun Wang 71.6 123
113 Brandon Stone 72.6 70
114 Jbe Kruger 72.7 99
115 Yusaku Miyazato 72.9 137
116 Darren Clarke 73.0 99
117 Austin Connelly 73.3 14
118 Paul Waring 74.0 89
119 Paul Lawrie 74.2 113
120 Darren Fichardt 74.4 137
121 Shiv Kapur 75.0 78
122 Michael Hendry 75.3 DNP
123 Ashley Hall 75.5 113
124 Mark Foster 75.9 78
125 Shaun Norris 76.2 62
126 Robert Dinwiddie 76.2 154
127 Laurie Canter 76.5 37
128 Stuart Manley 76.5 113
129 Prayad Marksaeng 76.9 123
130 Phachara Khongwatmai 77.6 153
131 Matthew Griffin 79.9 89
132 Julian Suri 83.3 78
133 Ryan McCarthy 83.8 99
134 Younghan Song 84.2 DNP
135 Mark O’Meara 84.2 131
136 Adam Bland 84.7 89
137 John Daly 84.9 137
138 Toby Tree 85.0 54
139 Maverick McNealy 85.1 137
140 Chan Kim 85.1 11
141 Giwhan Kim 85.2 DNP
142 Sandy Lyle 85.2 148
143 Tom Lehman 85.4 99
144 Paul Broadhurst 85.4 89
145 Kent Bulle 85.4 77
146 Yikeun Chang 85.4 DNP
147 Luca Cianchetti 85.4 131
148 Joseph Dean 85.4 70
149 Harry Ellis 85.4 137
150 Adam Hodkinson 85.4 154
151 Nick McCarthy 85.4 131
152 Haydn McCullen 85.4 99
153 Alfie Plant 85.4 62
154 Connor Syme 85.4 113
155 Todd Hamilton 85.7 156
156 David Duval 85.9 131
Yi Keun Chang late entry 45
Young-han Song late entry 66
James Hahn late entry 75
Gi-whan Kim late entry 109
Mike Hendry late entry 128
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 362. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Barbasol Championship

July 16, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,

Chad Campbell
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Chad Campbell 52.1 18
2 David Hearn 58.8 27
3 Daniel Summerhays 59.4 63
4 Jim Furyk 59.6 35
5 Will Wilcox 60.8 52
6 Jonathan Byrd 61.3 42
7 Patrick Rodgers 61.7 DNP
8 Ricky Barnes 62.0 15
9 Ben Martin 63.2 6
10 Boo Weekley 64.6 52
11 Andres Romero 64.9 67
12 Smylie Kaufman 65.3 12
13 Sam Saunders 65.4 55
14 Robert Garrigus 65.5 10
15 Chris Stroud 65.5 35
16 Scott Stallings 65.8 3
17 Matt Jones 66.1 84
18 Alex Cejka 66.4 15
19 Rick Lamb 66.6 73
20 Joel Dahmen 66.6 84
21 Trey Mullinax 66.8 55
22 Blayne Barber 67.1 42
23 Cameron Tringale 67.2 6
24 Jonathan Randolph 67.3 77
25 Brandon Hagy 67.4 42
26 Ryan Blaum 67.4 6
27 Andres Gonzales 67.4 73
28 Seamus Power 67.6 18
29 Seung-yul Noh 67.6 18
30 Patton Kizzire 67.8 64
31 JT Poston 67.9 42
32 Tyrone van Aswegen 67.9 64
33 Andrew Loupe 68.2 82
34 Grayson Murray 68.3 1
35 Cameron Percy 68.4 12
36 Spencer Levin 68.5 27
37 Robby Shelton 68.5 35
38 Rory Sabbatini 68.6 55
39 Zac Blair 68.6 27
40 Troy Merritt 68.7 35
41 Brian Gay 68.8 3
42 Dominic Bozzelli 69.0 114
43 Camilo Villegas 69.1 DNP
44 Chesson Hadley 69.2 27
45 Retief Goosen 69.4 12
46 Ben Crane 69.4 DNP
47 Kyle Reifers 69.4 18
48 Sebastian Munoz 69.4 DNP
49 Brian Stuard 69.7 84
50 KJ Choi 69.7 35
51 Jason Gore 69.7 DNP
52 Brian Campbell 69.9 109
53 Will MacKenzie 70.1 DNP
54 Derek Fathauer 70.2 61
55 Steve Wheatcroft 70.4 15
56 Tom Hoge 70.6 42
57 Julian Etulain 70.6 27
58 Martin Flores 70.8 18
59 Shawn Stefani 71.2 11
60 Stuart Appleby 71.4 77
61 Brett Stegmaier 71.4 DNP
62 Ryo Ishikawa 71.9 124
63 Ryan Brehm 71.9 84
64 Richy Werenski 71.9 18
65 Tag Ridings 72.6 3
66 Angel Cabrera 72.6 WD
67 Chad Collins 72.8 2
68 Hunter Mahan 72.8 64
69 Mark Anderson 73.2 100
70 Greg Owen 73.3 DNP
71 Ken Duke 73.3 55
72 Hiroshi Iwata 73.3 109
73 Brendon de Jonge 73.5 100
74 Ryan Armour 73.6 27
75 Tyler Aldridge 73.6 70
76 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 73.7 96
77 Mark Hubbard 73.8 42
78 Jeff Overton 74.2 DNP
79 Brett Drewitt 74.4 27
80 YE Yang 74.4 55
81 Mark Wilson 74.4 114
82 Nicholas Lindheim 74.6 55
83 Steven Alker 74.6 42
84 Jason Bohn 74.9 109
85 George McNeill 75.4 WD
86 Miguel Angel Carballo 75.4 109
87 Brad Fritsch 75.6 100
88 Matt Every 75.7 61
89 Bill Lunde 75.8 100
90 Bobby Wyatt 75.9 77
91 Carl Pettersson 76.0 77
92 Dicky Pride 76.3 18
93 Robert Allenby 76.7 27
94 Steven Bowditch 76.8 130
95 Brendon Todd 77.2 96
96 Tim Herron 78.3 42
97 Davis Love 78.9 67
98 John Merrick 79.3 18
99 Michael Bradley 80.9 84
100 Mark Hensby 81.4 114
101 Charlie Wi 81.7 35
102 Marc Turnesa 81.9 100
103 DJ Trahan 82.1 52
104 Eric Axley 82.2 DNP
105 Arjun Atwal 82.4 35
106 Shane Bertsch 82.7 67
107 John Rollins 82.8 84
108 Frank Lickliter 83.7 128
109 Ted Purdy 83.7 122
110 Cameron Beckman 83.9 114
111 Peter Lonard 84.2 DNP
112 Max Homa 84.6 71
113 Troy Matteson 84.7 96
114 Wes Homan 84.7 100
115 Brett Wetterich 84.7 128
116 Kent Jones 84.7 109
117 Lee Janzen 84.9 122
118 Shaun Micheel 84.9 81
119 Chris Smith 85.0 73
120 Omar Uresti 85.1 96
121 Matt Bettencourt 85.1 114
122 Craig Barlow 85.2 73
123 Len Mattiace 85.4 114
124 Rich Berberian 85.4 83
125 Sam Burns 85.4 6
126 William Cannon 85.4 84
127 Trace Crowe 85.4 127
128 Mike Genovese 85.4 124
129 Matt Gilchrest 85.4 42
130 SM Lee 85.4 84
131 Hugo Leon 85.4 84
132 Dru Love 85.4 114
133 Derek Rende 85.4 84
134 Blaine McCallister 85.4 DNP
135 Bobby Gates 85.5 DNP
136 Tommy Gainey 85.6 84
137 Richard S Johnson 85.6 DNP
Peter Malnati late entry 20
Grant Leaver late entry 46
Duffy Waldorf late entry 87
Chip Deason late entry 100
Heath Slocum late entry 103
Mookie DeMoss late entry 104
Dudley Hart late entry 117
Robert Gamez late entry 126
Brad Sill late entry 131
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 26. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (July 16, 2017)

July 16, 2017 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson remains no. 1 for the 18th week in a row.
# Thru July 16, 2017 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Dustin Johnson 45 1873 1
2 Jordan Spieth 49 1524 3
3 Rory McIlroy 41 1515 2
4 Adam Scott 43 1445 4
5 Jason Day 40 1437 5
6 Rickie Fowler 53 1423 6
7 Jon Rahm 28 1406 7
8 Paul Casey 48 1392 8
9 Hideki Matsuyama 48 1374 9
10 Sergio Garcia 40 1366 10
11 Matt Kuchar 59 1320 12
12 Justin Rose 46 1294 11
13 Phil Mickelson 45 1281 13
14 Brooks Koepka 51 1242 14
15 Henrik Stenson 48 1127 15
16 Louis Oosthuizen 47 1123 16
17 Francesco Molinari 46 1115 17
18 Patrick Reed 68 1077 18
19 Brandt Snedeker 55 1072 19
20 Justin Thomas 53 1056 20
21 Bill Haas 52 1051 21
22 Daniel Berger 53 1027 27
23 Charles Howell 50 1021 23
24 Charl Schwartzel 47 1014 25
25 Brendan Steele 49 1008 26
26 Kevin Kisner 55 1003 22
27 Steve Stricker 30 991 30
28 Jason Dufner 50 988 24
29 Marc Leishman 51 981 28
30 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 58 935 36
31 Branden Grace 52 933 31
32 Charley Hoffman 57 922 29
33 Pat Perez 36 917 33
34 Webb Simpson 48 907 34
35 Brian Harman 60 897 38
36 JB Holmes 53 895 35
37 Ryan Moore 46 889 32
38 Gary Woodland 51 866 39
39 Tyrrell Hatton 50 860 37
40 Tony Finau 55 848 41
41 Kevin Chappell 53 832 44
42 Jimmy Walker 53 831 45
43 Billy Horschel 50 830 46
44 Emiliano Grillo 56 823 42
45 Kevin Na 52 821 40
46 Russell Henley 50 815 47
47 Bubba Watson 47 804 43
48 Zach Johnson 52 773 54
49 Alex Noren 41 765 48
50 Martin Kaymer 53 753 49
51 Bernd Wiesberger 58 753 52
52 Kyle Stanley 55 751 51
53 Ryan Palmer 46 745 50
54 William McGirt 55 732 53
55 Thomas Pieters 50 732 55
56 Adam Hadwin 53 726 56
57 Jamie Lovemark 55 719 58
58 Byeong Hun An 55 705 57
59 Bud Cauley 41 701 65
60 Tommy Fleetwood 55 701 59
61 Graham DeLaet 44 698 60
62 Lucas Glover 50 696 61
63 Shane Lowry 48 688 64
64 Ross Fisher 48 684 62
65 Martin Laird 50 668 63
66 Kevin Streelman 53 661 67
67 Lee Westwood 46 660 68
68 David Lingmerth 61 653 66
69 Si-woo Kim 59 649 71
70 Wesley Bryan 28 649 91
71 Russell Knox 60 642 69
72 Keegan Bradley 55 642 73
73 Kevin Tway 30 639 84
74 Danny Lee 68 634 70
75 Andy Sullivan 56 633 85
76 Jhonattan Vegas 58 632 76
77 Soren Kjeldsen 60 631 83
78 Scott Piercy 55 629 77
79 Jim Furyk 35 628 75
80 Sean O’Hair 56 627 72
81 Graeme McDowell 58 626 80
82 Xander Schauffele 26 617 79
83 Stewart Cink 48 616 74
84 Chad Campbell 57 614 87
85 Hideto Tanihara 17 612 81
86 Sangmoon Bae 8 602 90
87 Chez Reavie 55 602 82
88 Daniel Summerhays 58 594 93
89 Jason Kokrak 55 589 88
90 Sung Kang 60 589 89
91 Nick Watney 31 581 78
92 Colt Knost 37 576 95
93 Matthew Fitzpatrick 60 576 86
94 James Hahn 53 576 92
95 Mackenzie Hughes 28 575 94
96 Oscar Fraustro 9 574 99
97 Anirban Lahiri 54 568 96
98 Ian Poulter 47 549 105
99 Chris Kirk 56 542 97
100 Jim Herman 54 537 98
101 Scott Brown 54 533 101
102 Harris English 59 533 100
103 Ollie Schniederjans 38 506 102
104 Luke List 57 503 103
105 David Hearn 61 498 104
106 Smylie Kaufman 56 485 106
107 Nick Taylor 56 484 107
108 Hudson Swafford 58 482 109
109 Danny Willett 49 480 108
110 Cameron Smith 53 476 110
111 Jerry Kelly 36 474 111
112 Joost Luiten 51 471 115
113 Patrick Rodgers 56 470 123
114 Jonas Blixt 52 466 116
115 Robert Streb 58 456 112
116 Aaron Baddeley 53 456 117
117 Luke Donald 53 455 114
118 Padraig Harrington 47 454 134
119 Peter Uihlein 44 453 113
120 JJ Spaun 30 424 118
121 Aaron Wise 8 422 125
122 Chris Wood 56 421 119
123 Ben Martin 56 420 122
124 Robert Garrigus 51 419 120
125 Billy Hurley 50 418 121
126 Morgan Hoffmann 57 415 135
127 Alex Cejka 57 411 124
128 Michael Kim 55 403 127
129 John Huh 57 401 126
130 Roberto Castro 56 398 128
131 Kelly Kraft 52 397 129
132 Patton Kizzire 54 396 139
133 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 55 393 130
134 Harold Varner 60 393 132
135 Haotong Li 42 392 131
136 Alexander Bjork 19 388 137
137 Seung-yul Noh 56 382 141
138 Scott Stallings 52 381 169
139 Vaughn Taylor 52 381 151
140 Thorbjorn Olesen 55 380 145
141 Bryson DeChambeau 47 377 184
142 Cameron Tringale 55 376 138
143 Freddie Jacobson 35 376 146
144 Andrew Johnston 50 376 162
145 Pablo Larrazabal 50 375 136
146 Johnson Wagner 54 374 140
147 Trey Mullinax 33 368 166
148 Matt Jones 52 364 144
149 Grayson Murray 26 363 142
150 Retief Goosen 37 363 152
151 Victor Dubuisson 35 359 143
152 John Senden 51 359 156
153 Blayne Barber 51 357 160
154 Jon Curran 46 357 155
155 Ryan Fox 34 353 218
156 Bryce Molder 56 352 150
157 Richard Bland 53 351 177
158 Bradley Dredge 45 350 149
159 Curtis Luck 17 349 147
160 JT Poston 27 348 148
161 Kyle Reifers 68 346 159
162 Brandon Hagy 27 345 154
163 Thongchai Jaidee 55 345 153
164 Geoff Ogilvy 48 345 157
165 Ricky Barnes 63 344 163
166 Jordan L Smith 13 343 165
167 Jorge Campillo 53 342 176
168 Nicolas Colsaerts 58 342 183
169 Ryan Blaum 33 342 158
170 Tim Clark 12 339 173
171 David Toms 25 338 168
172 Peter Hanson 37 336 161
173 Sam Saunders 52 336 182
174 Jonathan Byrd 22 335 314
175 Meen-whee Kim 16 334 170
176 Dominic Bozzelli 26 331 188
177 Fabian Gomez 55 330 172
178 Chris Stroud 51 330 193
179 Brian Gay 36 329 164
180 Michael Thompson 55 329 175
181 Fabrizio Zanotti 47 326 167
182 Brian Stuard 54 320 174
183 Kyung-tae Kim 18 319 181
184 Yuta Ikeda 13 316 189
185 Jonathan Randolph 30 314 171
186 Tyrone van Aswegen 65 312 187
187 Alexander Levy 48 311 205
188 Richard Sterne 34 310 217
189 Jamie Donaldson 47 309 180
190 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 42 309 179
191 Cameron Percy 45 309 223
192 Spencer Levin 65 306 186
193 Gregory Bourdy 57 305 190
194 Jaco van Zyl 47 304 197
195 Derek Fathauer 60 302 195
196 CT Pan 35 301 199
197 KJ Choi 48 301 210
198 Justin Leonard 17 299 198
199 Bronson Burgoon 32 299 203
200 Will Wilcox 38 298 185
201 Rob Oppenheim 33 298 204
202 Zac Blair 67 297 192
203 Tim Wilkinson 53 297 194
204 Henrik Norlander 34 296 207
205 Lee McCoy 10 296 206
206 Joel Dahmen 16 295 178
207 George Coetzee 50 294 196
208 Troy Merritt 60 294 200
209 Boo Weekley 56 293 201
210 Julian Etulain 25 292 191
211 Vijay Singh 45 292 209
212 Seamus Power 28 291 221
213 Camilo Villegas 60 291 219
214 Ben Crane 54 289 216
215 Scott Hend 58 282 208
216 Whee Kim 43 282 213
217 Benjamin Hebert 53 280 212
218 Paul Dunne 45 278 224
219 Anthony Wall 43 278 263
220 Sebastian Munoz 16 277 202
221 David Horsey 50 276 215
222 Thomas Aiken 57 275 222
223 Andrew Loupe 52 274 211
224 Rick Lamb 18 273 350
225 Jordan Smith 8 271
226 Rikard Karlberg 47 270 214
227 David Lipsky 58 261 220
228 Alejandro Canizares 49 256 226
229 Jeunghun Wang 47 255 225
230 Richie Ramsay 46 253 233
231 Jason Gore 41 252 228
232 Julien Quesne 49 249 227
233 Callum Shinkwin 36 249 315
234 Andres Gonzales 56 249 229
235 Brett Coletta 8 246 234
236 DA Points 47 245 231
237 Martin Piller 29 245 236
238 Robby Shelton 10 244 232
239 John Peterson 23 244 235
240 Will MacKenzie 45 243 237
241 Dean Burmester 29 241 230
242 Matthieu Pavon 20 241 374
243 Andrew Dodt 46 239 304
244 Chesson Hadley 41 238 262
245 JJ Henry 57 235 271
246 Shawn Stefani 56 233 242
247 Brett Stegmaier 57 231 238
248 Steve Wheatcroft 48 228 239
249 Joakim Lagergren 50 227 240
250 James Morrison 54 225 241
251 Andres Romero 30 224 275
252 Eddie Pepperell 42 223 248
253 David Drysdale 59 223 243
254 Matthew Southgate 47 221 246
255 Mikko Ilonen 45 221 245
256 Andrew Landry 24 218 251
257 Tom Hoge 50 217 244
258 Dylan Frittelli 29 216 247
259 Scott Langley 36 214 254
260 Maximilian Kieffer 51 213 252
261 Wes Roach 27 213 261
262 Luke Guthrie 30 212 256
263 Yusaku Miyazato 8 210 265
264 Rory Sabbatini 49 210 281
265 Brian Campbell 19 210 362
266 Renato Paratore 60 208 255
267 Tag Ridings 23 208 249
268 Martin Flores 35 206 250
269 Chad Collins 52 205 260
270 Robert Rock 47 205 323
271 Graeme Storm 55 204 257
272 Nacho Elvira 51 202 266
273 Brandon Stone 39 202 259
274 Anders Hansen 15 200 273
275 Ryo Ishikawa 30 199 258
276 Stephen Gallacher 44 198 272
277 Hiroshi Iwata 45 197 264
278 Johan Carlsson 52 197 310
279 Adrian Otaegui 53 196 299
280 Angel Cabrera 38 195 267
281 Richy Werenski 24 195 303
282 Scott Jamieson 54 195 268
283 Stuart Appleby 43 195 295
284 Paul Waring 20 193 270
285 Mikko Korhonen 45 191 269
286 Ashley Chesters 16 191 277
287 Ashun Wu 34 188 274
288 Rod Pampling 48 183 285
289 Romain Wattel 52 183 306
290 Ricardo Gouveia 47 181 282
291 Bill Lunde 13 181 253
292 Lee Slattery 57 180 344
293 Matteo Manassero 49 179 283
294 Florian Fritsch 30 179 276
295 Ernie Els 52 179 286
296 Ken Duke 47 179 280
297 Cody Gribble 29 177 284
298 Trevor Fisher 39 176 290
299 Romain Langasque 24 176 279
300 Ryan Brehm 24 176 278
301 Miguel Angel Jimenez 26 173 296
302 Tyler Aldridge 46 171 288
303 Raphael Jacquelin 52 171 291
304 Austin Connelly 11 170 297
305 Mark Anderson 18 170 293
306 Greg Owen 50 170 289
307 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 31 169 287
308 Lucas Bjerregaard 59 168 294
309 Steve Marino 42 167 302
310 Michael Putnam 24 167 298
311 Marcus Fraser 49 166 292
312 Prayad Marksaeng 9 166 305
313 Adrien Saddier 13 163 308
314 Bernd Ritthammer 31 163 407
315 Kristoffer Broberg 44 163 320
316 Brice Garnett 28 163 307
317 Oliver Fisher 55 161 301
318 Shubhankar Sharma 9 160 313
319 Rashid Khan 15 160 318
320 Jeff Overton 31 158 317
321 Thomas Detry 20 158 300
322 Daniel Im 43 157 309
323 Mark Hubbard 61 157 311
324 Gregory Havret 55 156 333
325 Lasse Jensen 51 156 312
326 Peter Malnati 62 155 321
327 Magnus A Carlsson 48 155 332
328 Chris Hanson 39 154 316
329 Michael Hendry 8 154 322
330 YE Yang 34 149 319
331 Thomas Bjorn 35 148 420
332 Scott Pinckney 37 147 329
333 Ashley Hall 8 146 335
334 Jason Scrivener 51 146 340
335 Nino Bertasio 45 145 326
336 Darren Fichardt 44 144 325
337 Chris Paisley 56 143 330
338 Marcel Siem 51 143 327
339 Greg Chalmers 46 140 376
340 Mark Wilson 42 140 328
341 Jason Bohn 50 140 324
342 Wade Ormsby 38 139 334
343 Justin Hicks 21 138 341
344 Ryan Ruffels 17 138 342
345 Tim Herron 26 137 331
346 Jbe Kruger 39 136 343
347 Robert Karlsson 43 136 348
348 Carlos Ortiz 39 135 339
349 Thanyakorn Khrongpha 11 133 349
350 Marc Warren 53 133 338
351 Prom Meesawat 41 133 347
352 Brett Drewitt 19 132 336
353 Steve Allan 8 132 351
354 Alex Prugh 23 132 355
355 Felipe Aguilar 49 131 345
356 Jordan Niebrugge 9 128 337
357 Jake Higginbottom 9 128 360
358 Phachara Khongwatmai 18 128 357
359 Nicholas Lindheim 24 127 354
360 Ryan Armour 27 127 346
361 Andrew Putnam 9 126 367
362 Brett Rumford 39 125 353
363 Paul Peterson 49 125 419
364 David Howell 46 124 352
365 Hunter Stewart 8 124 358
366 Adilson da Silva 27 123 365
367 Matthew Griffin 8 123 366
368 Hunter Mahan 52 122 356
369 Eduardo de la Riva 47 122 359
370 S Chikarangappa 10 121 372
371 Haydn Porteous 47 120 363
372 Erik Compton 32 119 371
373 Justin Walters 50 119 364
374 Panuphol Pittayarat 17 119 377
375 Shiv Kapur 34 119 375
376 Jacques Blaauw 13 118 378
377 Rahil Gangjee 19 117 381
378 George McNeill 40 117 361
379 Josh Teater 8 117 384
380 Carlos Pigem 33 116 383
381 Dawie van der Walt 36 116 380
382 Brendon de Jonge 51 115 368
383 Christofer Blomstrand 8 114 385
384 Angelo Que 13 114 386
385 Sam Brazel 33 114 406
386 Richard Lee 18 113 388
387 Pep Angles 20 112 373
388 Davis Love 30 112 370
389 David Bransdon 8 111 387
390 Hennie Otto 29 111 379
391 Abraham Ancer 27 111 391
392 Masahiro Kawamura 17 109 389
393 Max Orrin 17 109 390
394 Duncan Stewart 23 108 392
395 Austin Cook 12 107 369
396 Nathan Kimsey 17 107 382
397 Nick Cullen 18 107 394
398 Rhein Gibson 32 106 395
399 Simon Yates 8 105 400
400 Craig Lee 38 104 397
More | Less

A look at the John Deere Classic

July 11, 2017 Thomas Hawley

There are a lot of top players not playing anywhere this weekend, and especially not along the Iowa-Illinois border. The field at the unfortunate John Deere Classic, played at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis IL, contains none of the top 20 players in this week’s Hawley Ratings. With the Open Championship scheduled next week at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, near Liverpool on the west-central coast of England, the Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open has six of the top 20 entered. If considering the top 50 in the rankings, the Deere has 10, headed by no. 23 Kevin Kisner, while the Scottish has 13. The other top players presumably are working on their games somewhere near the west-central coast of England.

The best thing that can be said for the Deere is that the field contains a well-balanced mix of Read more

John Deere Classic

July 10, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,

Kevin Kisner
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Kevin Kisner 31.0 44
2 Charley Hoffman 36.4 39
3 Steve Stricker 36.8 5
4 Brian Harman 37.0 10
5 Charles Howell 39.4 19
6 Kyle Stanley 41.7 55
7 Zach Johnson 43.6 5
8 Daniel Berger 44.1 5
9 Ryan Moore 46.4 128
10 Danny Lee 46.7 WD
11 Jamie Lovemark 49.4 25
12 Kevin Streelman 50.5 44
13 Kevin Na 52.7 107
14 David Hearn 54.4 83
15 Chez Reavie 55.2 39
16 Chad Campbell 55.2 12
17 Curtis Luck 56.0 83
18 Bubba Watson 56.3 44
19 Bud Cauley 57.4 12
20 Lucas Glover 57.5 25
21 Sean O’Hair 58.4 78
22 William McGirt 58.5 71
23 Nick Watney 58.6 116
24 Joel Dahmen 59.0 140
25 Daniel Summerhays 59.9 12
26 Kevin Tway 60.1 12
27 Ryan Palmer 60.1 136
28 Nick Taylor 60.1 128
29 Scott Brown 60.5 25
30 Wesley Bryan 61.5 3
31 Johnson Wagner 61.5 83
32 Robert Streb 62.3 75
33 Ollie Schniederjans 62.6 39
34 Harris English 62.6 DNP
35 Ben Martin 62.8 39
36 Bryson DeChambeau 63.6 1
37 Luke List 64.1 68
38 Kelly Kraft 64.5 64
39 Matt Jones 64.8 116
40 Michael Kim 65.2 71
41 Smylie Kaufman 65.2 116
42 Chris Kirk 65.3 60
43 JJ Spaun 65.3 150
44 Morgan Hoffmann 65.4 12
45 Patrick Rodgers 65.5 2
46 Robert Garrigus 65.9 74
47 Trey Mullinax 66.2 19
48 Alex Cejka 66.2 136
49 Brandon Hagy 66.4 50
50 Billy Hurley 66.5 68
51 Grayson Murray 66.5 96
52 Jonathan Randolph 66.7 68
53 Geoff Ogilvy 67.1 107
54 Ricky Barnes 67.1 55
55 Ryan Blaum 67.3 78
56 Harold Varner 67.4 116
57 John Huh 67.4 128
58 Scott Stallings 67.5 5
59 Spencer Levin 67.6 96
60 JT Poston 67.8 64
61 Seung-yul Noh 67.8 DNP
62 Brian Gay 67.9 107
63 Tyrone van Aswegen 68.0 39
64 Cameron Tringale 68.0 50
65 Chris Stroud 68.1 19
66 Vaughn Taylor 68.1 19
67 Roberto Castro 68.4 116
68 Bryce Molder 68.5 128
69 Boo Weekley 68.7 60
70 Sebastian Munoz 68.7 96
71 Seamus Power 68.7 25
72 Troy Merritt 68.8 60
73 Dominic Bozzelli 68.9 25
74 Tim Wilkinson 68.9 96
75 Zac Blair 69.0 83
76 Kyle Reifers 69.1 75
77 Ben Crane 69.3 25
78 Patton Kizzire 69.4 25
79 Brian Stuard 69.4 83
80 Fabian Gomez 69.5 DNP
81 Sam Saunders 69.5 25
82 Julian Etulain 69.8 96
83 Will Wilcox 69.8 116
84 Steve Wheatcroft 70.2 145
85 Derek Fathauer 70.3 50
86 Will MacKenzie 70.5 DNP
87 Cameron Percy 70.7 12
88 Andres Gonzales 70.9 116
89 JJ Henry 70.9 10
90 Camilo Villegas 70.9 19
91 DA Points 71.1 116
92 KJ Choi 71.2 25
93 Andrew Loupe 71.2 81
94 Rory Sabbatini 71.5 19
95 Shawn Stefani 71.5 44
96 Brett Stegmaier 71.6 82
97 Martin Flores 71.6 64
98 Ryan Brehm 71.6 140
99 Tom Hoge 72.1 147
100 Bill Lunde 72.2 83
101 Tag Ridings 72.3 75
102 Ryo Ishikawa 72.4 116
103 Andres Romero 72.5 25
104 Chad Collins 72.6 128
105 Angel Cabrera 72.6 WD
106 Hunter Mahan 72.7 107
107 Chesson Hadley 72.9 25
108 Greg Owen 72.9 96
109 Peter Malnati 72.9 44
110 Michael Putnam 73.1 DNP
111 Richy Werenski 73.2 25
112 Hiroshi Iwata 73.3 152
113 YE Yang 73.4 64
114 Jason Bohn 73.4 116
115 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 73.5 83
116 Mark Anderson 73.5 50
117 Mark Hubbard 73.6 96
118 Cody Gribble 73.6 96
119 Ken Duke 73.6 96
120 Rick Lamb 73.6 3
121 Brian Campbell 73.8 12
122 Tyler Aldridge 74.0 107
123 Stuart Appleby 74.0 25
124 Brett Drewitt 74.1 116
125 Mark Wilson 74.3 128
126 Ryan Armour 74.4 107
127 Greg Chalmers 74.4 25
128 Matt Every 74.4 83
129 Brendon de Jonge 74.4 96
130 Nicholas Lindheim 74.7 55
131 Steven Bowditch 74.9 148
132 Dicky Pride 74.9 83
133 Bob Estes 75.0 136
134 George McNeill 75.1 140
135 Steven Alker 75.2 128
136 Miguel Angel Carballo 75.5 50
137 Brad Fritsch 75.5 107
138 Bobby Wyatt 75.6 136
139 Carl Pettersson 75.7 WD
140 Zack Sucher 76.1 DNP
141 Jonathan Byrd 77.1 5
142 Brendon Todd 77.1 148
143 Tim Herron 78.0 116
144 Davis Love 78.3 78
145 John Merrick 80.0 73
146 Michael Bradley 81.0 DNP
147 Charlie Wi 81.2 107
148 Eric Axley 81.8 146
149 Shane Bertsch 82.2 107
150 John Rollins 82.9 128
151 Nick Hardy 84.5 55
152 Nicholas Thompson 84.6 DNP
153 Wyndham Clark 84.7 83
154 Max Homa 84.7 83
155 Maverick McNealy 85.3 44
156 Charlie Beljan 85.4 DNP
157 Darin Fisher 85.4 151
158 Dylan Meyer 85.4 96
159 Bobby Gates 85.6 83
160 Troy Matteson 86.8 60
Sam Horsfield late entry 55
David Lawrence late entry 89
Cliff Kresge late entry 140
Kurt Slattery late entry 142
Matt Lee late entry 153
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 135. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open

July 10, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,

Rickie Fowler
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Rickie Fowler -18.4 9
2 Matt Kuchar 0.5 4
3 Adam Scott 9.0 35
4 Patrick Reed 9.8 66
5 Rory McIlroy 12.2 91
6 Tyrrell Hatton 24.2 66
7 Henrik Stenson 24.7 26
8 Branden Grace 27.0 15
9 Jason Dufner 27.3 66
10 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 30.5 1
11 Ross Fisher 34.5 35
12 David Lingmerth 37.4 152
13 Russell Knox 39.3 66
14 Alex Noren 42.4 106
15 Bernd Wiesberger 43.3 51
16 Martin Laird 43.8 140
17 Emiliano Grillo 44.9 91
18 Byeong Hun An 46.1 51
19 Andy Sullivan 47.1 9
20 Anirban Lahiri 48.5 32
21 Soren Kjeldsen 51.6 9
22 Stewart Cink 51.8 66
23 Martin Kaymer 52.4 66
24 Padraig Harrington 54.8 4
25 Luke Donald 55.4 58
26 Graeme McDowell 55.7 19
27 Marc Warren 55.7 66
28 Matteo Manassero 55.8 111
29 Matthew Fitzpatrick 56.2 66
30 Peter Uihlein 56.3 91
31 Nicolas Colsaerts 56.9 19
32 Hao-tong Li 57.5 DNP
33 Ian Poulter 58.0 9
34 Alexander Bjork 58.3 35
35 Victor Dubuisson 59.0 121
36 Ryan Fox 61.0 4
37 Chris Wood 61.4 91
38 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 62.3 111
39 David Drysdale 62.9 91
40 Pablo Larrazabal 62.9 121
41 Richard Bland 63.0 19
42 Bradley Dredge 63.0 66
43 Jamie Donaldson 63.2 121
44 Andrew Johnston 63.3 19
45 Jordan Smith 63.4 58
46 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 64.7 111
47 Alexander Levy 65.1 26
48 Fabrizio Zanotti 65.2 121
49 Thongchai Jaidee 65.7 130
50 Mikko Ilonen 66.0 58
51 Raphael Jacquelin 66.5 134
52 Scott Hend 66.6 66
53 Peter Hanson 67.2 64
54 Gregory Bourdy 67.4 66
55 Felipe Aguilar 67.4 140
56 Jorge Campillo 68.2 26
57 Richard Sterne 68.3 19
58 Marcel Siem 68.8 91
59 Benjamin Hebert 69.0 45
60 Rikard Karlberg 69.2 66
61 Maximilian Kieffer 69.3 45
62 Jaco van Zyl 69.4 DNP
63 Adrian Otaegui 69.6 19
64 Renato Paratore 70.2 61
65 Richie Ramsay 70.2 35
66 Thomas Aiken 70.6 32
67 Julien Quesne 70.6 91
68 Matthew Southgate 71.1 121
69 Paul Dunne 71.2 26
70 Dylan Frittelli 71.4 130
71 Dean Burmester 71.4 140
72 Andrew Dodt 71.5 4
73 David Horsey 71.9 43
74 Jeunghun Wang 72.0 140
75 George Coetzee 72.2 WD
76 David Lipsky 72.2 153
77 Brandon Stone 72.5 66
78 Alejandro Canizares 72.9 45
79 Joakim Lagergren 73.0 91
80 Johan Carlsson 73.1 15
81 James Morrison 73.2 121
82 David Howell 73.2 64
83 Anthony Wall 73.4 4
84 Paul Waring 73.4 51
85 Scott Jamieson 73.6 130
86 Thomas Detry 73.7 66
87 Romain Langasque 73.8 66
88 Mikko Korhonen 74.3 111
89 Paul Lawrie 74.3 146
90 Graeme Storm 74.5 91
91 Lucas Bjerregaard 74.6 61
92 Nacho Elvira 74.8 111
93 Niclas Fasth 74.9 121
94 Daniel Im 75.0 111
95 Chris Paisley 75.0 91
96 Ernie Els 75.2 DNP
97 Ashun Wu 75.3 111
98 Oliver Fisher 75.5 130
99 Florian Fritsch 75.6 66
100 Gregory Havret 75.7 32
101 Ricardo Gouveia 76.0 55
102 Nino Bertasio 76.1 91
103 Wade Ormsby 76.3 91
104 Gary Stal 76.4 55
105 Romain Wattel 76.4 26
106 Stephen Gallacher 76.4 45
107 Robert Rock 76.4 9
108 Matthieu Pavon 76.5 3
109 Haydn Porteous 76.6 66
110 Marcus Fraser 76.7 66
111 Magnus A Carlsson 76.7 35
112 Kristoffer Broberg 76.8 35
113 Chris Hanson 77.0 134
114 Lasse Jensen 77.0 WD
115 Callum Shinkwin 77.0 2
116 Lee Slattery 77.0 9
117 Eduardo de la Riva 77.4 121
118 Darren Fichardt 78.0 106
119 Nathan Kimsey 78.1 106
120 SSP Chawrasia 78.2 121
121 Duncan Stewart 78.2 55
122 Hennie Otto 78.3 66
123 Brett Rumford 78.3 111
124 Pep Angles 78.3 145
125 Jason Scrivener 78.4 35
126 Robert Karlsson 78.8 45
127 Justin Walters 79.2 106
128 Sam Walker 79.4 134
129 Thomas Bjorn 79.9 15
130 Marcus Armitage 80.4 111
131 Soo-min Lee 80.5 51
132 Bernd Ritthammer 80.5 15
133 Joel Stalter 80.5 151
134 Alvaro Quiros 80.5 66
135 Sam Brazel 80.5 35
136 Paul Peterson 80.7 19
137 Matt Wallace 81.0 91
138 Daniel Brooks 81.4 140
139 Sebastien Gros 81.8 61
140 Jose-Filipe Lima 81.8 149
141 Simon Dyson 81.8 66
142 Stuart Manley 82.2 134
143 Shih-chang Chan 82.6 66
144 Johan Edfors 82.8 134
145 Alexander Knappe 83.0 26
146 Edoardo Molinari 83.7 66
147 Damien Perrier 84.5 149
148 Darren Clarke 84.7 WD
149 Trevor Immelman 84.9 111
Ashley Chesters late entry 44
Haotong Li late entry 50
Jack Doherty late entry 88
Gareth Wright late entry 90
Jens Fahrbring late entry 94
Mark Foster late entry 97
Sebastian Heisele late entry 108
Scott Henry late entry 136
Sandy Scott late entry 147
Paul O’Hara late entry 148
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 123. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.
 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (July 9, 2017)

July 9, 2017 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson remains no. 1 for the 17th week in a row.
# Thru July 9, 2017 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Dustin Johnson 46 1866 1
2 Rory McIlroy 40 1580 2
3 Jordan Spieth 50 1525 3
4 Adam Scott 43 1480 4
5 Jason Day 41 1440 5
6 Rickie Fowler 53 1421 6
7 Jon Rahm 28 1409 7
8 Paul Casey 49 1387 8
9 Hideki Matsuyama 49 1372 9
10 Sergio Garcia 41 1364 10
11 Justin Rose 47 1301 12
12 Matt Kuchar 59 1299 11
13 Phil Mickelson 46 1282 13
14 Brooks Koepka 52 1240 14
15 Henrik Stenson 48 1144 15
16 Louis Oosthuizen 48 1120 16
17 Francesco Molinari 47 1109 17
18 Patrick Reed 68 1102 18
19 Brandt Snedeker 56 1070 20
20 Justin Thomas 53 1056 22
21 Bill Haas 53 1051 19
22 Kevin Kisner 55 1030 21
23 Charles Howell 50 1023 23
24 Jason Dufner 50 1019 24
25 Charl Schwartzel 48 1010 26
26 Brendan Steele 49 1007 25
27 Daniel Berger 53 992 27
28 Marc Leishman 52 984 28
29 Charley Hoffman 57 937 29
30 Steve Stricker 29 936 30
31 Branden Grace 52 925 31
32 Ryan Moore 46 922 32
33 Pat Perez 36 912 35
34 Webb Simpson 49 903 37
35 JB Holmes 54 895 39
36 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 58 890 34
37 Tyrrell Hatton 50 888 33
38 Brian Harman 60 879 38
39 Gary Woodland 52 864 36
40 Kevin Na 52 851 41
41 Tony Finau 55 851 45
42 Emiliano Grillo 56 844 42
43 Bubba Watson 47 831 40
44 Kevin Chappell 53 830 43
45 Jimmy Walker 54 829 46
46 Billy Horschel 51 828 44
47 Russell Henley 51 816 49
48 Alex Noren 40 790 47
49 Martin Kaymer 53 780 48
50 Ryan Palmer 46 772 50
51 Kyle Stanley 55 771 51
52 Bernd Wiesberger 58 770 52
53 William McGirt 54 754 54
54 Zach Johnson 52 740 55
55 Thomas Pieters 50 732 53
56 Adam Hadwin 53 727 56
57 Byeong Hun An 55 725 57
58 Jamie Lovemark 54 721 68
59 Tommy Fleetwood 56 700 65
60 Graham DeLaet 45 697 63
61 Lucas Glover 49 694 58
62 Ross Fisher 48 694 60
63 Martin Laird 49 692 62
64 Shane Lowry 49 690 61
65 Bud Cauley 40 674 66
66 David Lingmerth 61 674 59
67 Kevin Streelman 53 674 67
68 Lee Westwood 47 658 64
69 Russell Knox 60 658 72
70 Danny Lee 68 650 79
71 Si-woo Kim 59 647 70
72 Sean O’Hair 55 646 69
73 Keegan Bradley 56 641 73
74 Stewart Cink 48 638 71
75 Jim Furyk 36 632 74
76 Jhonattan Vegas 58 631 76
77 Scott Piercy 56 626 78
78 Nick Watney 30 615 77
79 Xander Schauffele 26 614 103
80 Graeme McDowell 58 614 75
81 Hideto Tanihara 17 611 95
82 Chez Reavie 54 611 82
83 Soren Kjeldsen 60 600 80
84 Kevin Tway 29 600 85
85 Andy Sullivan 56 600 86
86 Matthew Fitzpatrick 59 596 81
87 Chad Campbell 57 591 96
88 Jason Kokrak 55 589 83
89 Sung Kang 60 588 84
90 Sangmoon Bae 8 585 90
91 Wesley Bryan 27 581 87
92 James Hahn 54 575 94
93 Daniel Summerhays 57 573 88
94 Mackenzie Hughes 28 573 97
95 Colt Knost 37 572 91
96 Anirban Lahiri 54 572 89
97 Chris Kirk 55 553 92
98 Jim Herman 54 541 93
99 Oscar Fraustro 10 540 104
100 Harris English 60 535 100
101 Scott Brown 53 526 99
102 Ollie Schniederjans 38 517 98
103 Luke List 56 516 101
104 David Hearn 61 510 110
105 Ian Poulter 47 507 102
106 Smylie Kaufman 56 498 106
107 Nick Taylor 55 498 114
108 Danny Willett 50 483 105
109 Hudson Swafford 58 483 107
110 Cameron Smith 53 476 112
111 Jerry Kelly 36 474 113
112 Robert Streb 58 472 126
113 Peter Uihlein 43 471 116
114 Luke Donald 53 470 108
115 Joost Luiten 52 469 111
116 Jonas Blixt 53 467 109
117 Aaron Baddeley 54 454 115
118 JJ Spaun 29 445 118
119 Chris Wood 55 435 119
120 Robert Garrigus 51 431 121
121 Billy Hurley 50 430 117
122 Ben Martin 56 424 122
123 Patrick Rodgers 55 422 120
124 Alex Cejka 57 421 146
125 Aaron Wise 8 421 124
126 John Huh 56 415 123
127 Michael Kim 54 414 128
128 Roberto Castro 56 408 144
129 Kelly Kraft 51 408 160
130 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 55 405 125
131 Haotong Li 28 404 131
132 Harold Varner 59 403 140
133 Hao-tong Li 13 399 130
134 Padraig Harrington 47 389 139
135 Morgan Hoffmann 57 387 134
136 Pablo Larrazabal 50 387 135
137 Alexander Bjork 18 387 127
138 Cameron Tringale 55 386 132
139 Patton Kizzire 54 385 137
140 Johnson Wagner 54 385 138
141 Seung-yul Noh 56 383 141
142 Grayson Murray 25 380 133
143 Victor Dubuisson 35 380 129
144 Matt Jones 52 380 136
145 Thorbjorn Olesen 55 380 143
146 Freddie Jacobson 35 379 145
147 Curtis Luck 16 375 190
148 JT Poston 26 368 142
149 Bradley Dredge 44 364 172
150 Bryce Molder 55 362 148
151 Vaughn Taylor 52 362 147
152 Retief Goosen 38 361 154
153 Thongchai Jaidee 55 357 149
154 Brandon Hagy 26 356 194
155 Jon Curran 46 356 158
156 John Senden 52 356 159
157 Geoff Ogilvy 48 355 150
158 Ryan Blaum 32 355 214
159 Kyle Reifers 68 355 153
160 Blayne Barber 52 353 152
161 Peter Hanson 36 352 185
162 Andrew Johnston 49 352 151
163 Ricky Barnes 63 351 155
164 Brian Gay 35 343 156
165 Jordan L Smith 13 342 163
166 Trey Mullinax 32 339 162
167 Fabrizio Zanotti 46 339 168
168 David Toms 26 338 164
169 Scott Stallings 51 337 161
170 Meen-whee Kim 16 332 171
171 Jonathan Randolph 30 332 212
172 Fabian Gomez 55 331 174
173 Tim Clark 12 329 183
174 Brian Stuard 54 329 176
175 Michael Thompson 56 328 177
176 Jorge Campillo 52 328 165
177 Richard Bland 52 327 166
178 Joel Dahmen 15 323 157
179 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 41 323 180
180 Jamie Donaldson 47 321 169
181 Kyung-tae Kim 18 321 182
182 Sam Saunders 52 321 173
183 Nicolas Colsaerts 57 319 178
184 Bryson DeChambeau 46 318 210
185 Will Wilcox 38 316 167
186 Spencer Levin 65 315 179
187 Tyrone van Aswegen 65 314 181
188 Dominic Bozzelli 25 313 170
189 Yuta Ikeda 14 313 191
190 Gregory Bourdy 56 313 197
191 Julian Etulain 24 309 175
192 Zac Blair 67 307 184
193 Chris Stroud 51 306 211
194 Tim Wilkinson 53 306 187
195 Derek Fathauer 60 305 192
196 George Coetzee 50 305 186
197 Jaco van Zyl 48 303 188
198 Justin Leonard 18 302 198
199 CT Pan 35 301 189
200 Troy Merritt 59 301 195
201 Boo Weekley 56 301 193
202 Sebastian Munoz 15 300 390
203 Bronson Burgoon 32 298 201
204 Rob Oppenheim 33 298 202
205 Alexander Levy 48 295 196
206 Lee McCoy 10 295 204
207 Henrik Norlander 34 294 205
208 Scott Hend 58 290 221
209 Vijay Singh 45 290 199
210 KJ Choi 47 289 200
211 Andrew Loupe 52 284 203
212 Benjamin Hebert 52 282 233
213 Whee Kim 44 280 206
214 Rikard Karlberg 47 279 207
215 David Horsey 49 275 213
216 Ben Crane 53 275 209
217 Richard Sterne 34 274 208
218 Ryan Fox 34 273 265
219 Camilo Villegas 59 271 217
220 David Lipsky 58 269 216
221 Seamus Power 27 267 219
222 Thomas Aiken 57 267 218
223 Cameron Percy 44 266 215
224 Paul Dunne 45 264 222
225 Jeunghun Wang 46 264 220
226 Alejandro Canizares 48 259 223
227 Julien Quesne 48 258 251
228 Jason Gore 42 256 227
229 Andres Gonzales 56 256 225
230 Dean Burmester 28 255 224
231 DA Points 47 253 226
232 Robby Shelton 11 247 229
233 Richie Ramsay 46 247 277
234 Brett Coletta 8 246 235
235 John Peterson 24 244 234
236 Martin Piller 30 243 236
237 Will MacKenzie 45 241 237
238 Brett Stegmaier 56 237 238
239 Steve Wheatcroft 47 235 230
240 Joakim Lagergren 49 235 231
241 James Morrison 54 234 232
242 Shawn Stefani 55 232 243
243 David Drysdale 58 229 282
244 Tom Hoge 50 227 239
245 Mikko Ilonen 45 227 242
246 Matthew Southgate 46 227 293
247 Dylan Frittelli 28 226 240
248 Eddie Pepperell 43 225 244
249 Tag Ridings 22 221 241
250 Martin Flores 35 218 246
251 Andrew Landry 24 215 256
252 Maximilian Kieffer 50 214 245
253 Bill Lunde 13 214 228
254 Scott Langley 37 213 258
255 Renato Paratore 59 213 249
256 Luke Guthrie 30 212 253
257 Graeme Storm 54 212 247
258 Ryo Ishikawa 30 212 254
259 Brandon Stone 38 211 248
260 Chad Collins 51 211 250
261 Wes Roach 27 210 260
262 Chesson Hadley 41 210 261
263 Anthony Wall 43 209 278
264 Hiroshi Iwata 45 208 259
265 Yusaku Miyazato 8 208 262
266 Nacho Elvira 50 208 252
267 Angel Cabrera 37 202 257
268 Scott Jamieson 53 200 299
269 Mikko Korhonen 44 200 266
270 Paul Waring 19 198 255
271 JJ Henry 57 198 267
272 Stephen Gallacher 44 198 270
273 Anders Hansen 15 197 269
274 Ashun Wu 33 196 263
275 Andres Romero 30 194 268
276 Florian Fritsch 29 191 264
277 Ashley Chesters 16 187 344
278 Ryan Brehm 23 185 292
279 Romain Langasque 24 185 271
280 Ken Duke 47 185 272
281 Rory Sabbatini 48 185 335
282 Ricardo Gouveia 46 184 273
283 Matteo Manassero 49 184 280
284 Cody Gribble 28 184 283
285 Rod Pampling 49 181 285
286 Ernie Els 53 180 286
287 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 31 179 274
288 Tyler Aldridge 45 178 279
289 Greg Owen 50 178 275
290 Trevor Fisher 39 176 289
291 Raphael Jacquelin 52 176 281
292 Marcus Fraser 49 174 297
293 Mark Anderson 17 174 291
294 Lucas Bjerregaard 58 174 284
295 Stuart Appleby 42 172 288
296 Miguel Angel Jimenez 27 171 301
297 Austin Connelly 11 171 298
298 Michael Putnam 24 169 276
299 Adrian Otaegui 52 168 330
300 Thomas Detry 19 167 295
301 Oliver Fisher 54 167 353
302 Steve Marino 42 166 306
303 Richy Werenski 24 166 287
304 Andrew Dodt 45 166 336
305 Prayad Marksaeng 9 165 307
306 Romain Wattel 52 164 296
307 Brice Garnett 29 164 303
308 Adrien Saddier 13 163 310
309 Daniel Im 42 163 396
310 Johan Carlsson 51 162 300
311 Mark Hubbard 61 162 305
312 Lasse Jensen 50 161 302
313 Shubhankar Sharma 9 161 309
314 Jonathan Byrd 22 160 290
315 Callum Shinkwin 35 160 327
316 Chris Hanson 38 159 319
317 Jeff Overton 31 159 311
318 Rashid Khan 15 159 312
319 YE Yang 33 159 294
320 Kristoffer Broberg 43 156 304
321 Peter Malnati 62 155 334
322 Michael Hendry 8 153 318
323 Robert Rock 46 153 313
324 Jason Bohn 49 151 308
325 Darren Fichardt 43 150 314
326 Nino Bertasio 44 149 315
327 Marcel Siem 51 148 317
328 Mark Wilson 42 148 323
329 Scott Pinckney 37 147 324
330 Chris Paisley 55 147 321
331 Tim Herron 26 146 328
332 Magnus A Carlsson 47 145 320
333 Gregory Havret 54 145 322
334 Wade Ormsby 37 145 406
335 Ashley Hall 8 145 331
336 Brett Drewitt 18 142 316
337 Jordan Niebrugge 10 138 325
338 Marc Warren 53 138 326
339 Carlos Ortiz 40 138 339
340 Jason Scrivener 50 138 332
341 Justin Hicks 21 137 341
342 Ryan Ruffels 17 136 342
343 Jbe Kruger 39 136 343
344 Lee Slattery 56 135 359
345 Felipe Aguilar 48 135 346
346 Ryan Armour 27 134 333
347 Prom Meesawat 41 133 347
348 Robert Karlsson 42 133 373
349 Thanyakorn Khrongpha 11 133 348
350 Rick Lamb 17 132 329
351 Steve Allan 8 131 349
352 David Howell 46 131 337
353 Brett Rumford 39 131 340
354 Nicholas Lindheim 23 131 338
355 Alex Prugh 24 131 351
356 Hunter Mahan 52 129 365
357 Phachara Khongwatmai 18 128 352
358 Hunter Stewart 8 127 350
359 Eduardo de la Riva 46 127 361
360 Jake Higginbottom 9 126 360
361 George McNeill 39 125 357
362 Brian Campbell 18 124 376
363 Haydn Porteous 46 124 375
364 Justin Walters 49 123 356
365 Adilson da Silva 27 122 366
366 Matthew Griffin 8 122 363
367 Andrew Putnam 10 122 374
368 Brendon de Jonge 50 122 354
369 Austin Cook 13 121 345
370 Davis Love 29 121 428
371 Erik Compton 33 121 362
372 S Chikarangappa 10 121 368
373 Pep Angles 19 120 355
374 Matthieu Pavon 19 119 383
375 Shiv Kapur 34 119 369
376 Greg Chalmers 46 119 364
377 Panuphol Pittayarat 17 119 370
378 Jacques Blaauw 13 118 372
379 Hennie Otto 28 118 358
380 Dawie van der Walt 36 117 371
381 Rahil Gangjee 19 117 379
382 Nathan Kimsey 16 116 367
383 Carlos Pigem 33 116 377
384 Josh Teater 9 115 378
385 Christofer Blomstrand 8 115 381
386 Angelo Que 13 114 382
387 David Bransdon 8 112 384
388 Richard Lee 18 111 385
389 Masahiro Kawamura 17 110 386
390 Max Orrin 17 109 389
391 Abraham Ancer 27 109 392
392 Duncan Stewart 22 108 497
393 Steven Alker 31 108 380
394 Nick Cullen 18 107 391
395 Rhein Gibson 32 106 394
396 Richard Green 39 105 393
397 Craig Lee 38 104 400
398 SSP Chawrasia 47 104 388
399 Pelle Edberg 49 103 399
400 Simon Yates 8 103 404
More | Less

A look at the Greenbrier Classic

July 3, 2017 Thomas Hawley

Bill Haas is the favorite this week among a fairly weak field of golfers in the Greenbrier Classic. With the British Open just two weeks off (and the intervening John Deere Classic likely to draw an even weaker field than the Greenbrier), none of the top 10 in the Hawley Ratings are visiting West Virginia this week, and only three of the top 20 (Haas, Phil Mickelson, and Patrick Reed) were in the early entries list. Looking at the top 50 ranked players adds only nine more names.

Haas is playing fairly well of late, having been in the top 40 at the Masters and fifth in the U.S. Open. In other appearances over the last two months, he missed three straight cuts before posting two top-15 finishes (Dean & Deluca and then last week in the National) and one in the top 25. He gets only a slight nod over several other logical contenders, including Charles Howell, loser in the National playoff on Sunday; Kevin Kisner, back-to-back winner Read more