Launch and Apex (January)

February 5, 2017 Thomas Hawley
Francesco Molinari

(This monthly feature takes a brief look at improving players who reached one of three thresholds in the last month: Either the player reached a career-high position in the Hawley Ratings top 50, or made his first career appearance in the top 200, or made his first appearance in the top 400.)

Top 50 and Career High

Francesco Molinari — Molinari has steadily been climbing the Hawley Ratings, hitting a career high of 19th on Jan. 29. He was 12th and 14th, respectively, in the CareerBuilder and Farmers Insurance events. A year ago he was 54th. As recently as early November he was 27th. The 34-year-old is a native of Turin, Italy. He’s played eight or more PGA Tour events every year since 2010 after making his Euro Tour debut in 2005.

Billy Horschel — Billy Horschel reached a career high of 27th in the ratings on Jan. 8. He had a decent 2016 (five top-10s in 20 events), culminating in a runner=up finish in the RSM in November. Horschel is a native Floridian and was a four-time All-American at the University of Florida. He was Read more

Waste Management Phoenix Open

January 30, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,

Hideki Matsuyama
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Hideki Matsuyama 12.2 1
2 Jordan Spieth 23.9 9
3 Phil Mickelson 25.5 16
4 Ryan Moore 28.6 61
5 Brendan Steele 32.9 16
6 Bubba Watson 33.1 91
7 Patrick Reed 33.2 68
8 Gary Woodland 33.3 100
9 Charles Howell 34.2 DNP
10 Justin Thomas 35.3 76
11 Brooks Koepka 36.8 42
12 Rickie Fowler 39.7 4
13 Ryan Palmer 40.8 113
14 Matt Kuchar 42.4 9
15 Russell Knox 42.5 106
16 Jon Rahm 42.5 16
17 Brian Harman 43.5 24
18 Scott Piercy 44.1 73
19 Keegan Bradley 44.2 76
20 Chez Reavie 44.5 76
21 Kevin Na 45.5 16
22 Tony Finau 46.4 91
23 Louis Oosthuizen 46.5 3
24 Emiliano Grillo 46.7 63
25 Pat Perez 46.9 WD
26 Billy Horschel 47.3 24
27 Zach Johnson 47.3 12
28 Sean O’Hair 47.4 47
29 Webb Simpson 47.5 2
30 Marc Leishman 47.6 24
31 Chris Kirk 48.6 34
32 JB Holmes 49.2 24
33 Russell Henley 49.7 16
34 Adam Hadwin 50.8 12
35 Daniel Berger 51.0 7
36 Martin Laird 51.0 7
37 Harris English 51.1 57
38 William McGirt 52.3 24
39 Jamie Lovemark 53.2 71
40 Shane Lowry 53.4 16
41 Kevin Chappell 54.3 75
42 Steve Stricker 54.5 42
43 Jim Herman 55.0 76
44 Robert Streb 55.1 100
45 Lucas Glover 55.2 36
46 Patrick Rodgers 55.3 118
47 Chad Campbell 55.4 106
48 Byeong-Hun An 55.6 6
49 Luke List 55.8 91
50 Roberto Castro 56.7 76
51 Charley Hoffman 57.7 24
52 Kyle Stanley 57.7 36
53 Jason Kokrak 57.7 76
54 Ollie Schniederjans 58.0 24
55 Robert Garrigus 58.2 36
56 Si-woo Kim 58.4 121
57 Daniel Summerhays 58.4 16
58 James Hahn 59.2 106
59 Kevin Streelman 59.3 76
60 Graham DeLaet 59.4 9
61 Michael Kim 60.2 24
62 Michael Thompson 60.4 DNP
63 Geoff Ogilvy 61.2 47
64 Mackenzie Hughes 61.5 106
65 Bryce Molder 61.7 129
66 Danny Lee 62.1 127
67 Bud Cauley 62.5 47
68 Shawn Stefani 62.6 76
69 David Hearn 62.8 76
70 Grayson Murray 63.2 36
71 Cameron Smith 63.3 42
72 Ryo Ishikawa 63.5 76
73 Luke Donald 63.7 76
74 Alex Cejka 63.9 74
75 Colt Knost 64.5 DNP
76 Ben Martin 65.0 100
77 John Huh 65.1 34
78 Matt Jones 65.2 36
79 Scott Brown 65.6 52
80 Cameron Tringale 65.7 113
81 Smylie Kaufman 65.7 106
82 Patton Kizzire 65.9 57
83 Blayne Barber 65.9 91
84 Cody Gribble 65.9 91
85 Retief Goosen 66.3 125
86 Will Wilcox 66.4 125
87 Fabian Gomez 66.4 100
88 Aaron Baddeley 66.6 76
89 Harold Varner 66.7 68
90 Andrew Johnston 66.7 68
91 Jason Bohn 66.7 52
92 Kyle Reifers 66.8 100
93 KJ Choi 66.9 91
94 Vaughn Taylor 67.0 52
95 Padraig Harrington 67.3 91
96 Brian Gay 67.4 47
97 Brett Stegmaier 67.4 127
98 Ryan Blaum 67.4 DNP
99 Ben Crane 67.5 47
100 Martin Flores 67.7 DNP
101 Jonas Blixt 67.7 52
102 Derek Fathauer 68.0 DNP
103 Tyrone van Aswegen 68.0 71
104 Ricky Barnes 68.2 121
105 Hunter Mahan 68.6 63
106 Jon Curran 68.6 57
107 Boo Weekley 68.6 52
108 Spencer Levin 68.8 76
109 Seamus Power 69.3 DNP
110 Nick Taylor 69.3 106
111 Andrew Loupe 69.6 129
112 Zac Blair 69.8 76
113 Mark Wilson 69.8 76
114 Troy Merritt 69.9 24
115 Brian Stuard 70.0 16
116 John Peterson 70.2 12
117 Morgan Hoffmann 70.7 36
118 Ken Duke 70.8 61
119 Rod Pampling 71.1 118
120 Seung-yul Noh 71.4 57
121 Steven Alker 71.5 DNP
122 Trey Mullinax 72.2 DNP
123 Ryan Brehm 72.2 DNP
124 Steve Marino 72.3 91
125 Wesley Bryan 72.6 42
126 Chad Collins 72.7 63
127 Steven Bowditch 72.9 121
128 Mark Hubbard 73.2 42
129 Xander Schauffele 73.4 DNP
130 Greg Chalmers 73.7 100
131 Carl Pettersson 73.9 113
132 Cheng-tsung Pan 73.9 113
133 Matt Every 75.3 113
134 JJ Henry 75.5 66
135 Meen-whee Kim 76.0 DNP
136 Sung-hoon Kang 77.1 12
137 Charlie Beljan 80.7 66
138 Craig Hocknull 84.1 118
JJ Spaun late entry 5
Camilo Villegas late entry 27
Jim Knous late entry 92
Brandon Hagy late entry 112
Alex Kim late entry 122
Michael Schoolcraft late entry 131
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 320. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.

 

Omega Dubai Desert Classic

January 30, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,
Henrik Stenson
Henrik Stenson
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Henrik Stenson 25.8 2
2 Sergio Garcia 34.4 1
3 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 44.4 11
4 Tyrrell Hatton 44.9 3
5 Bernd Wiesberger 49.8 32
6 Lee Westwood 51.0 23
7 Martin Kaymer 51.1 23
8 Danny Willett 54.3 54
9 Victor Dubuisson 54.7 79
10 Stephen Gallacher 55.7 9
11 Ross Fisher 55.7 118
12 Tommy Fleetwood 56.7 96
13 David Lingmerth 57.1 69
14 Matthew Fitzpatrick 57.4 5
15 Joost Luiten 58.0 23
16 Andy Sullivan 58.0 105
17 Anirban Lahiri 58.9 19
18 Graeme McDowell 59.3 13
19 Romain Langasque 59.9 DNP
20 Thorbjorn Olesen 60.5 32
21 Alexander Bjork 60.5 DNP
22 Chris Wood 60.7 19
23 Thomas Pieters 60.8 23
24 Peter Hanson 61.2 105
25 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 61.3 96
26 Jorge Campillo 62.5 23
27 Tiger Woods 62.9 WD
28 Jeunghun Wang 62.9 79
29 Thongchai Jaidee 64.0 15
30 Nicolas Colsaerts 64.2 118
31 Thomas Aiken 64.3 42
32 Pablo Larrazabal 64.3 96
33 Richard Bland 64.6 DNP
34 Jaco van Zyl 64.9 122
35 David Horsey 65.3 126
36 Ashun Wu 65.3 79
37 Bradley Dredge 65.7 32
38 Alejandro Canizares 65.8 DNP
39 Ian Poulter 65.9 15
40 Anthony Wall 66.5 84
41 Rikard Karlberg 66.6 WD
42 Gregory Bourdy 66.7 56
43 Jamie Donaldson 67.2 69
44 Joakim Lagergren 67.6 23
45 Fabrizio Zanotti 67.6 84
46 Miguel Angel Jimenez 67.7 84
47 Mikko Ilonen 67.7 32
48 Scott Hend 68.2 42
49 David Lipsky 68.3 42
50 Nacho Elvira 68.7 11
51 Robert Rock 69.0 110
52 Julien Quesne 69.1 96
53 Peter Uihlein 69.2 5
54 Alexander Levy 69.2 49
55 George Coetzee 69.5 7
56 Benjamin Hebert 69.6 110
57 David Howell 69.6 116
58 Raphael Jacquelin 69.7 13
59 Paul Dunne 69.8 42
60 Ricardo Gouveia 69.8 84
61 Chris Hanson 70.1 69
62 Lucas Bjerregaard 70.2 69
63 Marc Warren 70.2 96
64 Richie Ramsay 70.3 60
65 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 70.3 19
66 Ryan Fox 70.4 63
67 Maximilian Kieffer 70.6 19
68 Matteo Manassero 70.7 54
69 Callum Shinkwin 70.8 84
70 Chris Paisley 70.9 15
71 James Morrison 70.9 23
72 Renato Paratore 71.2 42
73 David Drysdale 71.3 WD
74 Thomas Detry 71.4 96
75 Johan Carlsson 71.7 69
76 Robert Karlsson 71.7 110
77 Graeme Storm 71.7 39
78 Felipe Aguilar 71.8 49
79 Matthew Southgate 72.1 56
80 Oliver Fisher 72.3 96
81 Scott Jamieson 72.3 60
82 Romain Wattel 72.3 59
83 Magnus A Carlsson 72.5 9
84 Paul Lawrie 72.9 56
85 Kristoffer Broberg 73.1 DNP
86 Thomas Bjorn 73.1 79
87 Brandon Stone 73.1 7
88 Alvaro Quiros 73.2 110
89 Jason Scrivener 73.2 39
90 Gregory Havret 73.3 84
91 Justin Walters 73.4 32
92 Richard Green 73.5 105
93 Lee Slattery 73.6 49
94 Marcel Siem 73.7 118
95 Darren Fichardt 73.9 32
96 Daniel Im 73.9 96
97 Nino Bertasio 73.9 49
98 Andrew Dodt 74.0 84
99 Pelle Edberg 74.1 WD
100 Eduardo de la Riva 74.3 69
101 Gary Stal 74.3 105
102 Adrian Otaegui 74.4 65
103 Wade Ormsby 74.7 42
104 Lasse Jensen 74.8 3
105 Prom Meesawat 74.8 15
106 Paul Peterson 75.0 69
107 Dylan Frittelli 75.3 DNP
108 Daniel Brooks 75.4 69
109 Soo-min Lee 75.4 122
110 Sebastien Gros 75.5 96
111 Haydn Porteous 75.5 69
112 Hennie Otto 75.6 122
113 Sam Walker 75.7 65
114 Nathan Holman 75.8 68
115 Sam Brazel 75.9 42
116 Niclas Fasth 76.0 63
117 Shiv Chawrasia 76.3 84
118 Darren Clarke 76.3 79
119 Hao-tong Li 77.1 39
120 Paul Waring 77.2 105
121 Simon Dyson 77.2 49
122 Alexander Knappe 77.5 65
123 Dominic Foos 77.6 118
124 Trevor Immelman 77.7 84
125 Bernd Ritthammer 79.4 84
126 Jordan Smith 81.3 23
127 Nathan Kimsey 82.3 115
128 Darius van Driel 82.7 84
129 Matthieu Pavon 82.9 110
130 Duncan Stewart 82.9 DNP
131 Jose Maria Olazabal 82.9 84
132 Curtis Luck 83.2 23
133 Zane Scotland 83.8 69
134 Marcus Armitage 84.0 DNP
135 Gavin Green 84.1 32
136 Younes El Hassani 84.1 125
137 Rayhan Thomas 84.1 60
138 Luke Joy 84.1 WD
139 Ahmed Marjan 84.1 127
140 Craig Hinton 84.1 116
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 537. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.

 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Jan. 29, 2017)

January 30, 2017 Thomas Hawley

Jason Day missed the cut last week in the Farmers Insurance Open but remains on top in the ratings for the 37th week in a row. He’s idle this week.
# Thru January 29, 2017 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Jason Day 40 1841 1
2 Rory McIlroy 42 1669 2
3 Dustin Johnson 51 1601 3
4 Jordan Spieth 52 1569 4
5 Henrik Stenson 46 1438 5
6 Hideki Matsuyama 48 1404 6
7 Justin Rose 49 1373 8
8 Adam Scott 42 1346 7
9 Phil Mickelson 45 1216 12
10 Patrick Reed 65 1205 9
11 Sergio Garcia 41 1204 10
12 Paul Casey 51 1175 11
13 Rickie Fowler 54 1145 13
14 Jim Furyk 35 1136 15
15 Matt Kuchar 56 1111 16
16 Brooks Koepka 51 1110 14
17 Bubba Watson 42 1104 17
18 Justin Thomas 56 1079 18
19 Francesco Molinari 47 1044 20
20 Jon Rahm 16 1026 38
21 Ryan Moore 45 1021 19
22 Branden Grace 51 1011 21
23 Kevin Na 53 991 22
24 Gary Woodland 53 974 24
25 Charles Howell 57 952 33
26 Bill Haas 52 952 25
27 Louis Oosthuizen 50 946 23
28 Charl Schwartzel 48 944 26
29 Brendan Steele 50 939 29
30 Russell Knox 59 937 27
31 Zach Johnson 52 928 28
32 Brandt Snedeker 59 896 34
33 JB Holmes 50 879 31
34 Billy Horschel 50 855 30
35 Ryan Palmer 44 854 35
36 Daniel Berger 56 853 32
37 Kevin Kisner 57 850 36
38 Tony Finau 57 832 45
39 Emiliano Grillo 57 831 37
40 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 57 816 40
41 Marc Leishman 52 809 41
42 Kevin Chappell 54 801 39
43 Scott Piercy 54 790 42
44 Tyrrell Hatton 49 770 44
45 Jimmy Walker 54 749 43
46 Keegan Bradley 55 743 63
47 Jason Dufner 49 743 46
48 Pat Perez 36 739 72
49 William McGirt 54 735 49
50 Webb Simpson 45 731 48
51 Chris Kirk 53 727 50
52 Daniel Summerhays 54 724 52
53 Danny Willett 49 717 54
54 Martin Kaymer 53 714 47
55 Russell Henley 50 714 53
56 Brian Harman 63 713 64
57 Steve Stricker 27 709 55
58 Sean O’Hair 55 702 57
59 Jamie Lovemark 42 698 51
60 Chez Reavie 51 693 58
61 Robert Streb 56 689 68
62 Shane Lowry 49 682 60
63 Si-woo Kim 42 675 56
64 Soren Kjeldsen 60 669 59
65 Harris English 57 665 71
66 Byeong-Hun An 51 663 61
67 Charley Hoffman 54 655 62
68 Alexander Noren 37 647 66
69 Jason Kokrak 54 636 65
70 David Lingmerth 60 631 70
71 Bernd Wiesberger 58 629 67
72 Adam Hadwin 56 624 69
73 Jim Herman 54 599 73
74 Chad Campbell 58 581 74
75 Patrick Rodgers 49 574 100
76 Lee Westwood 47 573 78
77 Luke List 40 566 76
78 Martin Laird 48 563 77
79 Lucas Glover 51 560 83
80 Andy Sullivan 59 554 80
81 Danny Lee 68 554 79
82 Roberto Castro 49 552 88
83 Luke Donald 53 548 85
84 Mackenzie Hughes 11 547 75
85 Graeme McDowell 58 544 86
86 Kevin Streelman 52 543 81
87 Stewart Cink 46 542 93
88 James Hahn 52 537 82
89 Hudson Swafford 60 536 84
90 Victor Dubuisson 39 535 90
91 Jerry Kelly 46 534 89
92 Jhonattan Vegas 60 528 91
93 Matthew Fitzpatrick 58 513 94
94 Anirban Lahiri 55 513 92
95 Bud Cauley 24 510 87
96 David Hearn 60 504 97
97 Thomas Pieters 48 498 99
98 Joost Luiten 52 497 98
99 Ross Fisher 46 497 101
100 Kyle Stanley 46 493 121
101 Freddie Jacobson 37 492 103
102 Alex Cejka 55 492 95
103 Patton Kizzire 38 490 96
104 Bryce Molder 55 490 102
105 Grayson Murray 8 484
106 Colt Knost 53 481 106
107 Smylie Kaufman 41 478 107
108 Chris Wood 55 478 113
109 Will Wilcox 37 472 109
110 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 57 470 117
111 Scott Brown 55 465 112
112 Tommy Fleetwood 55 464 104
113 Johnson Wagner 52 463 108
114 John Senden 59 463 105
115 Robert Garrigus 51 456 110
116 Jason Bohn 48 456 116
117 Fabian Gomez 54 454 118
118 Graham DeLaet 43 453 111
119 Ollie Schniederjans 26 449 163
120 Cameron Tringale 56 448 114
121 Ben Martin 54 444 119
122 Matt Jones 52 439 122
123 Aaron Wise 8 432
124 Thongchai Jaidee 58 431 120
125 Kyle Reifers 66 421 129
126 Harold Varner 41 418 123
127 John Huh 59 414 125
128 Cameron Smith 49 413 133
129 Haotong Li 31 413 132
130 Retief Goosen 42 409 124
131 Ryo Ishikawa 36 409 156
132 Michael Kim 39 409 128
133 Jamie Donaldson 50 404 135
134 Billy Hurley 50 403 127
135 Cody Gribble 17 402 137
136 Ian Poulter 46 400 134
137 Shawn Stefani 52 398 136
138 Geoff Ogilvy 42 395 131
139 Sung Kang 41 395 139
140 Sangmoon Bae 24 394 138
141 Richy Werenski 12 394 197
142 Ryan Blaum 16 394 126
143 Romain Langasque 11 393 130
144 Jonas Blixt 55 383 158
145 Richard Bland 56 382 140
146 Peter Hanson 36 380 145
147 Tiger Woods 12 379 115
148 Jaco van Zyl 49 364 169
149 Jon Curran 59 362 142
150 Thorbjorn Olesen 51 361 144
151 Ricky Barnes 59 360 148
152 Aaron Baddeley 58 356 146
153 KJ Choi 44 356 143
154 Derek Fathauer 61 352 147
155 Nick Watney 31 352 141
156 David Toms 38 350 157
157 Jeunghun Wang 36 347 185
158 Rikard Karlberg 47 346 151
159 Bradley Dredge 44 345 165
160 Vaughn Taylor 44 345 159
161 Chris Stroud 57 344 160
162 Blayne Barber 52 342 150
163 Michael Thompson 58 341 194
164 Alejandro Canizares 50 340 154
165 Andrew Johnston 50 340 155
166 Brett Stegmaier 40 340 152
167 Padraig Harrington 54 339 153
168 Tyrone van Aswegen 57 337 187
169 David Horsey 51 336 168
170 Greg Owen 50 333 170
171 Jorge Campillo 56 333 181
172 Spencer Levin 66 331 162
173 Boo Weekley 53 329 161
174 Andrew Loupe 45 329 164
175 Troy Merritt 58 328 166
176 Richard Sterne 40 327 177
177 Ashun Wu 22 326 174
178 Vijay Singh 48 326 172
179 Scott Stallings 50 325 167
180 Whee Kim 51 324 175
181 Gregory Bourdy 58 323 171
182 JJ Spaun 13 323 345
183 Dominic Bozzelli 10 320 149
184 Pablo Larrazabal 48 320 173
185 Anthony Wall 44 318 184
186 Camilo Villegas 59 317 178
187 CT Pan 16 315 182
188 George Coetzee 48 312 176
189 Fabrizio Zanotti 45 311 180
190 Rory Sabbatini 50 309 222
191 Henrik Norlander 33 307 179
192 Tim Wilkinson 56 306 189
193 Austin Cook 16 303 186
194 Julien Quesne 51 301 183
195 Joakim Lagergren 50 301 213
196 Thomas Aiken 59 298 204
197 Nicolas Colsaerts 55 296 193
198 Scott Hend 61 291 190
199 George McNeill 51 290 192
200 Morgan Hoffmann 55 290 188
201 Kenny Perry 9 286 199
202 Justin Leonard 29 286 202
203 Mikko Ilonen 45 285 191
204 Ben Crane 52 282 198
205 Alexander Levy 50 281 196
206 Andres Romero 40 281 201
207 Zac Blair 67 280 206
208 Nick Taylor 53 273 207
209 Bronson Burgoon 32 272 212
210 James Morrison 55 271 211
211 Seung-yul Noh 53 271 203
212 David Howell 49 269 200
213 Seamus Power 15 267 195
214 Sam Saunders 52 265 216
215 Jordan Niebrugge 8 265 214
216 Lee McCoy 12 264 223
217 Ricardo Gouveia 32 263 209
218 Steve Wheatcroft 53 262 210
219 Cameron Percy 43 262 208
220 Ken Duke 49 261 221
221 Peter Uihlein 40 261 220
222 Tom Hoge 54 259 225
223 Benjamin Hebert 55 258 219
224 Jason Gore 52 258 224
225 Paul Dunne 33 257 232
226 Dean Burmester 23 257 218
227 Brian Stuard 55 255 217
228 Marc Warren 53 255 215
229 Oscar Fraustro 22 254 231
230 John Peterson 27 252 205
231 Florian Fritsch 30 251 229
232 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 247 257
233 Brian Gay 21 247 233
234 Steven Bowditch 62 246 226
235 Miguel Angel Jimenez 35 246 230
236 Maximilian Kieffer 51 244 227
237 Lucas Bjerregaard 60 244 244
238 David Lipsky 60 244 235
239 Scott Langley 53 244 236
240 Kelly Kraft 36 243 253
241 Brendon Todd 52 243 228
242 Martin Flores 38 242 269
243 Hiroshi Iwata 42 242 239
244 Richie Ramsay 44 240 237
245 Chesson Hadley 55 239 238
246 Marcus Fraser 50 238 240
247 Andres Gonzales 61 237 234
248 Luke Guthrie 46 234 243
249 Ernie Els 53 233 255
250 Bryson DeChambeau 32 226 241
251 YE Yang 35 226 245
252 Matthew Southgate 32 224 242
253 Brendon de Jonge 60 224 246
254 Nacho Elvira 41 224 277
255 Brice Garnett 44 223 250
256 Mikko Korhonen 45 220 251
257 Jonathan Byrd 34 218 254
258 Brian Campbell 11 215 280
259 Martin Piller 29 215 260
260 Steve Marino 34 215 247
261 Rod Pampling 44 214 249
262 Hunter Mahan 50 213 248
263 Raphael Jacquelin 54 213 252
264 Rob Oppenheim 30 212 261
265 Joe Affrunti 8 212 267
266 Scott Pinckney 52 209 262
267 Mark Wilson 48 209 265
268 Steven Alker 31 206 256
269 Chad Collins 51 206 258
270 Chris Hanson 25 205 285
271 Callum Shinkwin 28 204 259
272 Kristoffer Broberg 51 204 263
273 Tyler Aldridge 38 203 264
274 Kyung-tae Kim 15 203 273
275 Bo Van Pelt 27 201 272
276 Stuart Appleby 36 200 268
277 Graeme Storm 57 200 282
278 Peter Malnati 47 200 271
279 Prayad Marksaeng 10 199 274
280 Robert Rock 44 197 270
281 Ryan Brehm 11 193 303
282 Mark Hubbard 59 193 281
283 Carl Pettersson 52 192 278
284 Romain Wattel 53 191 275
285 Wesley Bryan 13 190 266
286 Trey Mullinax 17 189 283
287 Joel Stalter 8 186
288 David Drysdale 60 183 289
289 Andrew Landry 25 182 290
290 Renato Paratore 59 181 284
291 Tim Clark 14 180 295
292 Carlos Ortiz 56 180 287
293 Ryan Fox 22 180 279
294 Chris Paisley 52 180 310
295 Xander Schauffele 13 179 276
296 Erik Compton 49 178 292
297 Magnus A Carlsson 51 178 286
298 Johan Carlsson 53 178 291
299 Hunter Stewart 8 178 298
300 Richard Green 42 177 294
301 Ryan Ruffels 13 176 300
302 Stephen Gallacher 44 176 288
303 Davis Love 31 176 299
304 Felipe Aguilar 48 176 297
305 Lee Slattery 55 175 293
306 Jeff Overton 47 172 302
307 Matteo Manassero 48 171 296
308 Anders Hansen 23 171 305
309 Wes Roach 27 171 306
310 Will MacKenzie 49 169 301
311 Paul Lawrie 35 163 304
312 Robert Karlsson 44 162 319
313 Marcel Schneider 8 161 311
314 Eddie Pepperell 45 160 316
315 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 41 158 308
316 Brian Davis 35 157 317
317 Bobby Wyatt 17 155 307
318 Darren Fichardt 45 155 314
319 Jason Scrivener 49 154 318
320 Brandon Stone 29 154 313
321 Thomas Bjorn 37 152 320
322 Trevor Fisher 43 151 321
323 Brandon Hagy 18 149 312
324 JT Poston 11 147 315
325 Brett Drewitt 9 145 309
326 Gregory Havret 54 145 322
327 Oliver Fisher 56 144 325
328 Ryan Armour 24 143 360
329 Pelle Edberg 53 141 342
330 Eduardo de la Riva 47 141 324
331 Derek Ernst 49 140 328
332 DA Points 51 140 323
333 Nino Bertasio 29 139 326
334 Ze-cheng Dou 8 139 330
335 Steve Allan 8 138 329
336 John Merrick 42 136 331
337 Michael Putnam 36 132 338
338 Scott Jamieson 55 132 333
339 Alex Prugh 40 130 337
340 Justin Walters 45 130 336
341 Lasse Jensen 46 129 339
342 Jbe Kruger 48 129 344
343 Miguel Angel Carballo 33 129 335
344 Adrian Otaegui 52 129 340
345 Rahil Gangjee 20 129 349
346 Masahiro Kawamura 19 128 348
347 Dawie van der Walt 40 128 347
348 Marcel Siem 48 128 341
349 Ben Evans 47 127 346
350 Justin Hicks 25 127 350
351 Nicholas Lindheim 15 126 332
352 Nick Cullen 15 126 351
353 Paul Waring 14 125 327
354 Tim Herron 29 124 354
355 Robert Dinwiddie 50 124 353
356 Zander Lombard 16 124 355
357 Brett Rumford 35 123 358
358 Tom Gillis 26 123 352
359 Tag Ridings 14 123 334
360 Sebastian Soderberg 9 121 356
361 Michael Jonzon 14 121 359
362 Thanyakorn Khrongpha 15 121 361
363 Sam Brazel 24 120 343
364 Thomas Linard 24 118 363
365 Rhein Gibson 33 117 364
366 Daniel Im 31 117 378
367 Simon Wakefield 11 116 366
368 Jordan Zunic 13 115 365
369 Wade Ormsby 38 115 357
370 Todd Sinnott 13 115 367
371 Simon Khan 28 114 368
372 Matthew Nixon 34 113 369
373 Greg Chalmers 40 112 362
374 Josh Teater 15 112 370
375 Angelo Que 14 111 373
376 Kevin Tway 16 109 413
377 Nicholas Thompson 36 107 372
378 Adilson da Silva 30 107 379
379 Aron Price 9 107 380
380 Prom Meesawat 42 107 377
381 Juvic Pagunsan 9 106 381
382 JJ Henry 55 106 371
383 Richard McEvoy 45 106 383
384 Stephan Jaeger 8 106 385
385 Craig Lee 48 105 384
386 Chris Smith 18 105 374
387 Jaco Ahlers 16 104 382
388 Jeff Winther 24 101 386
389 Mark Anderson 13 101 410
390 Seve Benson 39 101 388
391 Rhys West 11 101 387
392 Rashid Khan 17 100 393
393 Zack Sucher 23 99 375
394 Bernd Ritthammer 26 99 376
395 Angel Cabrera 40 98 391
396 Wen-tang Lin 10 98 394
397 Soo-min Lee 32 97 389
398 Gary Boyd 23 97 396
399 Paul Peterson 38 97 408
400 Nathan Holman 42 97 390
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Farmers Insurance Open

January 23, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,

Jason Day
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Jason Day 1.3 100
2 Dustin Johnson 16.7 91
3 Hideki Matsuyama 27.7 33
4 Phil Mickelson 33.9 14
5 Francesco Molinari 34.1 14
6 Justin Rose 35.4 4
7 Brooks Koepka 35.4 80
8 Brandt Snedeker 35.5 9
9 Gary Woodland 36.5 20
10 Rickie Fowler 36.7 100
11 Charles Howell 36.8 2
12 Paul Casey 36.9 28
13 Jimmy Walker 41.6 100
14 Brendan Steele 41.9 20
15 Emiliano Grillo 44.1 33
16 JB Holmes 45.0 33
17 Louis Oosthuizen 45.4 41
18 Martin Laird 45.7 74
19 Billy Horschel 47.1 64
20 Marc Leishman 47.1 20
21 Daniel Berger 47.8 110
22 Keegan Bradley 49.1 4
23 Adam Hadwin 49.4 49
24 Pat Perez 50.3 4
25 Tony Finau 50.6 4
26 Shane Lowry 50.6 33
27 Jamie Lovemark 50.8 80
28 Soren Kjeldsen 51.1 125
29 Brian Harman 51.4 9
30 Luke List 51.6 91
31 Hudson Swafford 53.2 110
32 Tiger Woods 53.5 110
33 Byeong-Hun An 53.5 49
34 Chad Campbell 53.7 138
35 Jon Rahm 53.7 1
36 Lucas Glover 53.9 33
37 Kevin Chappell 54.0 91
38 Jason Kokrak 54.3 91
39 Scott Stallings 55.3 80
40 KJ Choi 56.2 110
41 Robert Garrigus 56.7 129
42 James Hahn 56.8 91
43 Si-woo Kim 57.1 WD
44 Charley Hoffman 57.3 54
45 Harris English 58.2 14
46 Jhonattan Vegas 58.2 28
47 Robert Streb 58.5 9
48 Roberto Castro 59.2 28
49 Kevin Streelman 59.3 67
50 Stewart Cink 59.5 20
51 Kyle Stanley 60.1 14
52 Michael Kim 60.3 54
53 Graham DeLaet 60.7 54
54 Mackenzie Hughes 61.1 54
55 Billy Hurley 61.2 77
56 Nick Watney 61.4 91
57 Grayson Murray 61.6 100
58 Bud Cauley 61.8 80
59 John Huh 62.0 76
60 Danny Lee 62.0 129
61 Geoff Ogilvy 62.5 125
62 Colt Knost 62.5 DNP
63 Alex Cejka 62.5 151
64 Aaron Baddeley 62.8 80
65 Cameron Tringale 63.5 73
66 Henrik Norlander 63.7 80
67 Patrick Rodgers 63.9 4
68 John Senden 63.9 64
69 Bryce Molder 64.0 41
70 Ryan Blaum 64.4 64
71 Aaron Wise 64.8 71
72 Cameron Smith 64.9 33
73 Blayne Barber 65.5 80
74 Patton Kizzire 65.6 110
75 Greg Owen 65.6 DNP
76 Andrew Johnston 65.7 100
77 Michael Thompson 65.7 14
78 Johnson Wagner 65.8 54
79 Ollie Schniederjans 65.9 9
80 Retief Goosen 65.9 100
81 Smylie Kaufman 65.9 DNP
82 Tim Wilkinson 66.2 41
83 Camilo Villegas 66.2 54
84 Harold Varner 66.4 138
85 Scott Brown 66.4 41
86 Padraig Harrington 66.5 110
87 Will Wilcox 66.8 DNP
88 Ryo Ishikawa 67.1 20
89 Brett Stegmaier 67.3 138
90 Kyle Reifers 67.3 39
91 Ben Crane 67.3 110
92 Seamus Power 67.4 91
93 Derek Fathauer 67.5 67
94 Jonas Blixt 68.0 20
95 Nick Taylor 68.1 54
96 Jon Curran 68.2 74
97 Andrew Loupe 68.7 110
98 Andres Gonzales 68.7 149
99 Richy Werenski 68.9 20
100 Cameron Percy 69.1 71
101 Dominic Bozzelli 69.2 151
102 Brian Stuard 69.2 77
103 Spencer Levin 69.3 110
104 Kelly Kraft 69.4 28
105 Boo Weekley 69.6 144
106 Troy Merritt 69.7 100
107 Tyrone van Aswegen 69.7 20
108 John Peterson 69.8 129
109 Martin Flores 69.9 28
110 Seung-yul Noh 70.1 125
111 Zac Blair 70.2 41
112 Rod Pampling 70.4 110
113 Hiroshi Iwata 70.7 DNP
114 Rory Sabbatini 71.0 14
115 Morgan Hoffmann 71.0 77
116 Steve Marino 71.2 129
117 Ken Duke 71.4 DNP
118 Steven Alker 71.6 154
119 Chad Collins 71.6 144
120 Bryson DeChambeau 71.7 144
121 Hunter Mahan 72.0 67
122 Wesley Bryan 72.1 91
123 Steven Bowditch 72.3 138
124 Peter Malnati 72.5 100
125 Stuart Appleby 72.6 110
126 Brad Fritsch 72.6 67
127 JT Poston 72.8 129
128 Brian Campbell 72.9 41
129 Xander Schauffele 72.9 110
130 Brandon Stone 73.0 129
131 Will MacKenzie 73.1 80
132 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 73.2 110
133 Brandon Hagy 73.2 100
134 Ryan Brehm 73.3 41
135 DA Points 73.4 80
136 Trey Mullinax 73.5 49
137 Nicholas Lindheim 73.7 129
138 Bobby Wyatt 73.8 125
139 JJ Spaun 73.9 9
140 Brett Drewitt 74.0 80
141 Tag Ridings 74.0 151
142 Greg Chalmers 74.1 80
143 JJ Henry 74.2 138
144 Miguel Angel Carballo 74.4 110
145 Ryan Armour 74.9 39
146 Zack Sucher 75.5 100
147 Mark Anderson 75.6 49
148 Kevin Tway 75.8 41
149 Matt Every 76.2 DNP
150 Jonathan Randolph 76.6 54
151 Rick Lamb 76.9 129
152 Meen-whee Kim 77.0 129
153 Julian Etulain 77.0 63
154 Sung-hoon Kang 77.1 91
155 Sebastian Munoz 77.2 54
156 Max Homa 77.2 110
157 Cheng-tsung Pan 77.5 2
158 Joel Dahmen 78.2 DNP
159 Beau Hossler 83.3 49
160 Chris Gilley 84.1 155
Max Rottluff late entry 138
Tyler Aldridge late entry 144
Steve Wheatcroft late entry 144
Todd Baek late entry 149
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 68. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.

 

Commercial Bank Qatar Masters

January 23, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,

Rafael Cabrera-Bello
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 42.0 6
2 Bernd Wiesberger 46.9 37
3 Martin Kaymer 49.5 48
4 Tommy Fleetwood 54.0 97
5 David Lingmerth 56.0 13
6 Romain Langasque 56.3 37
7 Joost Luiten 57.8 21
8 Graeme McDowell 58.7 28
9 Thorbjorn Olesen 59.0 57
10 Andy Sullivan 59.9 28
11 Alexander Bjork 60.5 28
12 Chris Wood 60.7 11
13 Peter Hanson 61.0 18
14 Alejandro Canizares 61.9 WD
15 Thongchai Jaidee 62.0 71
16 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 62.9 9
17 Richard Bland 62.9 55
18 Nicolas Colsaerts 63.6 28
19 Jeunghun Wang 63.6 1
20 George Coetzee 63.6 88
21 Pablo Larrazabal 64.1 48
22 Rikard Karlberg 64.1 48
23 Mikko Ilonen 64.5 110
24 Jorge Campillo 64.6 13
25 Bradley Dredge 64.7 21
26 Thomas Aiken 64.7 4
27 Gregory Bourdy 65.5 71
28 Ricardo Gouveia 66.9 107
29 Dean Burmester 66.9 41
30 Jaco van Zyl 66.9 2
31 Anthony Wall 67.2 21
32 Fabrizio Zanotti 67.2 88
33 Julien Quesne 67.7 71
34 Benjamin Hebert 67.8 65
35 Scott Hend 68.3 60
36 David Lipsky 68.4 41
37 Joakim Lagergren 68.4 2
38 Raphael Jacquelin 68.5 60
39 Alexander Levy 68.5 57
40 Marc Warren 68.7 60
41 Matteo Manassero 69.1 71
42 Mikko Korhonen 69.4 41
43 Johan Carlsson 69.6 48
44 Ryan Fox 69.6 64
45 Paul Lawrie 69.6 71
46 David Howell 69.8 88
47 Stephen Gallacher 70.0 97
48 Nacho Elvira 70.1 6
49 Richie Ramsay 70.2 37
50 Renato Paratore 70.3 97
51 Callum Shinkwin 70.3 71
52 Maximilian Kieffer 70.4 88
53 Paul Dunne 70.7 21
54 Joel Stalter 70.8 41
55 Robert Karlsson 70.9 28
56 Felipe Aguilar 70.9 41
57 Magnus A Carlsson 70.9 88
58 Lucas Bjerregaard 71.2 11
59 Chris Hanson 71.3 18
60 Matthew Southgate 71.3 97
61 Robert Rock 71.3 81
62 Oliver Fisher 71.3 41
63 Ernie Els 71.4 13
64 David Drysdale 71.4 37
65 Thomas Bjorn 71.4 48
66 YE Yang 71.6 DNP
67 Graeme Storm 71.9 21
68 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 71.9 4
69 Kristoffer Broberg 72.0 88
70 Pep Angles 72.1 71
71 Scott Jamieson 72.1 107
72 Chris Paisley 72.2 13
73 Romain Wattel 72.3 97
74 Darren Fichardt 72.3 66
75 Jason Scrivener 72.3 81
76 Alvaro Quiros 72.9 119
77 Lee Slattery 73.0 81
78 Gregory Havret 73.2 57
79 Justin Walters 73.4 88
80 Marcel Siem 73.5 WD
81 Adrian Otaegui 74.1 71
82 Pelle Edberg 74.2 21
83 Thomas Detry 74.2 28
84 Eduardo de la Riva 74.2 81
85 Nino Bertasio 74.3 48
86 Eddie Pepperell 74.4 DNP
87 Tom Lewis 74.4 DNP
88 Wade Ormsby 74.4 116
89 Lasse Jensen 74.5 81
90 Edoardo Molinari 74.8 107
91 Daniel Im 74.8 28
92 Matthew Nixon 74.8 DNP
93 Alex Noren 74.8 21
94 Jens Fahrbring 74.9 88
95 Niclas Fasth 75.1 110
96 Sam Brazel 75.3 71
97 Soo-min Lee 75.4 60
98 Daniel Brooks 75.4 68
99 Gary Stal 75.4 97
100 Dylan Frittelli 75.5 48
101 Sebastien Gros 75.6 55
102 Paul Peterson 75.6 28
103 Haydn Porteous 75.6 71
104 John Parry 75.7 DNP
105 Nathan Holman 75.7 121
106 Shiv Chawrasia 75.9 112
107 Paul Waring 76.2 112
108 Scott Henry 76.5 119
109 Sebastian Soderberg 77.0 DNP
110 Simon Dyson 77.4 69
111 Sam Walker 77.4 18
112 Trevor Immelman 77.7 97
113 Hao-tong Li 78.0 81
114 Paul Maddy 78.2 DNP
115 Bernd Ritthammer 78.6 88
116 Jose-Filipe Lima 79.9 97
117 Ricardo Gonzalez 81.8 70
118 Damien Perrier 81.9 41
119 Matthieu Pavon 82.4 67
120 Duncan Stewart 82.8 97
121 Jordan Smith 82.8 6
122 Jose Maria Olazabal 83.6 117
123 Nathan Kimsey 83.6 9
124 Steven Tiley 83.8 97
125 Alexander Knappe 84.0 28
126 Marcus Armitage 84.1 81
127 Petr Dedek 84.1 123
128 Clarke Lutton 84.1 121
129 Younes El Hassani 84.1 114
130 Abdulrahman Abdulla Al Shahrani 84.1 124
131 Ali Al-Shahrani 84.1 DNP
132 Saleh Al Kaabi 84.1 117
133 Pierre Verlaar 84.1 114
134 Anton Karlsson 84.1 13
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 51. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.

 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Jan. 22, 2017)

January 23, 2017 Thomas Hawley

Jason Day missed the cut last week in the Farmers Insurance Open but remains on top in the ratings for the 37th week in a row. He’s idle this week.
# Thru January 29, 2017 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Jason Day 40 1841 1
2 Rory McIlroy 42 1669 2
3 Dustin Johnson 51 1601 3
4 Jordan Spieth 52 1569 4
5 Henrik Stenson 46 1438 5
6 Hideki Matsuyama 48 1404 6
7 Justin Rose 49 1373 8
8 Adam Scott 42 1346 7
9 Phil Mickelson 45 1216 12
10 Patrick Reed 65 1205 9
11 Sergio Garcia 41 1204 10
12 Paul Casey 51 1175 11
13 Rickie Fowler 54 1145 13
14 Jim Furyk 35 1136 15
15 Matt Kuchar 56 1111 16
16 Brooks Koepka 51 1110 14
17 Bubba Watson 42 1104 17
18 Justin Thomas 56 1079 18
19 Francesco Molinari 47 1044 20
20 Jon Rahm 16 1026 38
21 Ryan Moore 45 1021 19
22 Branden Grace 51 1011 21
23 Kevin Na 53 991 22
24 Gary Woodland 53 974 24
25 Charles Howell 57 952 33
26 Bill Haas 52 952 25
27 Louis Oosthuizen 50 946 23
28 Charl Schwartzel 48 944 26
29 Brendan Steele 50 939 29
30 Russell Knox 59 937 27
31 Zach Johnson 52 928 28
32 Brandt Snedeker 59 896 34
33 JB Holmes 50 879 31
34 Billy Horschel 50 855 30
35 Ryan Palmer 44 854 35
36 Daniel Berger 56 853 32
37 Kevin Kisner 57 850 36
38 Tony Finau 57 832 45
39 Emiliano Grillo 57 831 37
40 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 57 816 40
41 Marc Leishman 52 809 41
42 Kevin Chappell 54 801 39
43 Scott Piercy 54 790 42
44 Tyrrell Hatton 49 770 44
45 Jimmy Walker 54 749 43
46 Keegan Bradley 55 743 63
47 Jason Dufner 49 743 46
48 Pat Perez 36 739 72
49 William McGirt 54 735 49
50 Webb Simpson 45 731 48
51 Chris Kirk 53 727 50
52 Daniel Summerhays 54 724 52
53 Danny Willett 49 717 54
54 Martin Kaymer 53 714 47
55 Russell Henley 50 714 53
56 Brian Harman 63 713 64
57 Steve Stricker 27 709 55
58 Sean O’Hair 55 702 57
59 Jamie Lovemark 42 698 51
60 Chez Reavie 51 693 58
61 Robert Streb 56 689 68
62 Shane Lowry 49 682 60
63 Si-woo Kim 42 675 56
64 Soren Kjeldsen 60 669 59
65 Harris English 57 665 71
66 Byeong-Hun An 51 663 61
67 Charley Hoffman 54 655 62
68 Alexander Noren 37 647 66
69 Jason Kokrak 54 636 65
70 David Lingmerth 60 631 70
71 Bernd Wiesberger 58 629 67
72 Adam Hadwin 56 624 69
73 Jim Herman 54 599 73
74 Chad Campbell 58 581 74
75 Patrick Rodgers 49 574 100
76 Lee Westwood 47 573 78
77 Luke List 40 566 76
78 Martin Laird 48 563 77
79 Lucas Glover 51 560 83
80 Andy Sullivan 59 554 80
81 Danny Lee 68 554 79
82 Roberto Castro 49 552 88
83 Luke Donald 53 548 85
84 Mackenzie Hughes 11 547 75
85 Graeme McDowell 58 544 86
86 Kevin Streelman 52 543 81
87 Stewart Cink 46 542 93
88 James Hahn 52 537 82
89 Hudson Swafford 60 536 84
90 Victor Dubuisson 39 535 90
91 Jerry Kelly 46 534 89
92 Jhonattan Vegas 60 528 91
93 Matthew Fitzpatrick 58 513 94
94 Anirban Lahiri 55 513 92
95 Bud Cauley 24 510 87
96 David Hearn 60 504 97
97 Thomas Pieters 48 498 99
98 Joost Luiten 52 497 98
99 Ross Fisher 46 497 101
100 Kyle Stanley 46 493 121
101 Freddie Jacobson 37 492 103
102 Alex Cejka 55 492 95
103 Patton Kizzire 38 490 96
104 Bryce Molder 55 490 102
105 Grayson Murray 8 484
106 Colt Knost 53 481 106
107 Smylie Kaufman 41 478 107
108 Chris Wood 55 478 113
109 Will Wilcox 37 472 109
110 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 57 470 117
111 Scott Brown 55 465 112
112 Tommy Fleetwood 55 464 104
113 Johnson Wagner 52 463 108
114 John Senden 59 463 105
115 Robert Garrigus 51 456 110
116 Jason Bohn 48 456 116
117 Fabian Gomez 54 454 118
118 Graham DeLaet 43 453 111
119 Ollie Schniederjans 26 449 163
120 Cameron Tringale 56 448 114
121 Ben Martin 54 444 119
122 Matt Jones 52 439 122
123 Aaron Wise 8 432
124 Thongchai Jaidee 58 431 120
125 Kyle Reifers 66 421 129
126 Harold Varner 41 418 123
127 John Huh 59 414 125
128 Cameron Smith 49 413 133
129 Haotong Li 31 413 132
130 Retief Goosen 42 409 124
131 Ryo Ishikawa 36 409 156
132 Michael Kim 39 409 128
133 Jamie Donaldson 50 404 135
134 Billy Hurley 50 403 127
135 Cody Gribble 17 402 137
136 Ian Poulter 46 400 134
137 Shawn Stefani 52 398 136
138 Geoff Ogilvy 42 395 131
139 Sung Kang 41 395 139
140 Sangmoon Bae 24 394 138
141 Richy Werenski 12 394 197
142 Ryan Blaum 16 394 126
143 Romain Langasque 11 393 130
144 Jonas Blixt 55 383 158
145 Richard Bland 56 382 140
146 Peter Hanson 36 380 145
147 Tiger Woods 12 379 115
148 Jaco van Zyl 49 364 169
149 Jon Curran 59 362 142
150 Thorbjorn Olesen 51 361 144
151 Ricky Barnes 59 360 148
152 Aaron Baddeley 58 356 146
153 KJ Choi 44 356 143
154 Derek Fathauer 61 352 147
155 Nick Watney 31 352 141
156 David Toms 38 350 157
157 Jeunghun Wang 36 347 185
158 Rikard Karlberg 47 346 151
159 Bradley Dredge 44 345 165
160 Vaughn Taylor 44 345 159
161 Chris Stroud 57 344 160
162 Blayne Barber 52 342 150
163 Michael Thompson 58 341 194
164 Alejandro Canizares 50 340 154
165 Andrew Johnston 50 340 155
166 Brett Stegmaier 40 340 152
167 Padraig Harrington 54 339 153
168 Tyrone van Aswegen 57 337 187
169 David Horsey 51 336 168
170 Greg Owen 50 333 170
171 Jorge Campillo 56 333 181
172 Spencer Levin 66 331 162
173 Boo Weekley 53 329 161
174 Andrew Loupe 45 329 164
175 Troy Merritt 58 328 166
176 Richard Sterne 40 327 177
177 Ashun Wu 22 326 174
178 Vijay Singh 48 326 172
179 Scott Stallings 50 325 167
180 Whee Kim 51 324 175
181 Gregory Bourdy 58 323 171
182 JJ Spaun 13 323 345
183 Dominic Bozzelli 10 320 149
184 Pablo Larrazabal 48 320 173
185 Anthony Wall 44 318 184
186 Camilo Villegas 59 317 178
187 CT Pan 16 315 182
188 George Coetzee 48 312 176
189 Fabrizio Zanotti 45 311 180
190 Rory Sabbatini 50 309 222
191 Henrik Norlander 33 307 179
192 Tim Wilkinson 56 306 189
193 Austin Cook 16 303 186
194 Julien Quesne 51 301 183
195 Joakim Lagergren 50 301 213
196 Thomas Aiken 59 298 204
197 Nicolas Colsaerts 55 296 193
198 Scott Hend 61 291 190
199 George McNeill 51 290 192
200 Morgan Hoffmann 55 290 188
201 Kenny Perry 9 286 199
202 Justin Leonard 29 286 202
203 Mikko Ilonen 45 285 191
204 Ben Crane 52 282 198
205 Alexander Levy 50 281 196
206 Andres Romero 40 281 201
207 Zac Blair 67 280 206
208 Nick Taylor 53 273 207
209 Bronson Burgoon 32 272 212
210 James Morrison 55 271 211
211 Seung-yul Noh 53 271 203
212 David Howell 49 269 200
213 Seamus Power 15 267 195
214 Sam Saunders 52 265 216
215 Jordan Niebrugge 8 265 214
216 Lee McCoy 12 264 223
217 Ricardo Gouveia 32 263 209
218 Steve Wheatcroft 53 262 210
219 Cameron Percy 43 262 208
220 Ken Duke 49 261 221
221 Peter Uihlein 40 261 220
222 Tom Hoge 54 259 225
223 Benjamin Hebert 55 258 219
224 Jason Gore 52 258 224
225 Paul Dunne 33 257 232
226 Dean Burmester 23 257 218
227 Brian Stuard 55 255 217
228 Marc Warren 53 255 215
229 Oscar Fraustro 22 254 231
230 John Peterson 27 252 205
231 Florian Fritsch 30 251 229
232 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 247 257
233 Brian Gay 21 247 233
234 Steven Bowditch 62 246 226
235 Miguel Angel Jimenez 35 246 230
236 Maximilian Kieffer 51 244 227
237 Lucas Bjerregaard 60 244 244
238 David Lipsky 60 244 235
239 Scott Langley 53 244 236
240 Kelly Kraft 36 243 253
241 Brendon Todd 52 243 228
242 Martin Flores 38 242 269
243 Hiroshi Iwata 42 242 239
244 Richie Ramsay 44 240 237
245 Chesson Hadley 55 239 238
246 Marcus Fraser 50 238 240
247 Andres Gonzales 61 237 234
248 Luke Guthrie 46 234 243
249 Ernie Els 53 233 255
250 Bryson DeChambeau 32 226 241
251 YE Yang 35 226 245
252 Matthew Southgate 32 224 242
253 Brendon de Jonge 60 224 246
254 Nacho Elvira 41 224 277
255 Brice Garnett 44 223 250
256 Mikko Korhonen 45 220 251
257 Jonathan Byrd 34 218 254
258 Brian Campbell 11 215 280
259 Martin Piller 29 215 260
260 Steve Marino 34 215 247
261 Rod Pampling 44 214 249
262 Hunter Mahan 50 213 248
263 Raphael Jacquelin 54 213 252
264 Rob Oppenheim 30 212 261
265 Joe Affrunti 8 212 267
266 Scott Pinckney 52 209 262
267 Mark Wilson 48 209 265
268 Steven Alker 31 206 256
269 Chad Collins 51 206 258
270 Chris Hanson 25 205 285
271 Callum Shinkwin 28 204 259
272 Kristoffer Broberg 51 204 263
273 Tyler Aldridge 38 203 264
274 Kyung-tae Kim 15 203 273
275 Bo Van Pelt 27 201 272
276 Stuart Appleby 36 200 268
277 Graeme Storm 57 200 282
278 Peter Malnati 47 200 271
279 Prayad Marksaeng 10 199 274
280 Robert Rock 44 197 270
281 Ryan Brehm 11 193 303
282 Mark Hubbard 59 193 281
283 Carl Pettersson 52 192 278
284 Romain Wattel 53 191 275
285 Wesley Bryan 13 190 266
286 Trey Mullinax 17 189 283
287 Joel Stalter 8 186
288 David Drysdale 60 183 289
289 Andrew Landry 25 182 290
290 Renato Paratore 59 181 284
291 Tim Clark 14 180 295
292 Carlos Ortiz 56 180 287
293 Ryan Fox 22 180 279
294 Chris Paisley 52 180 310
295 Xander Schauffele 13 179 276
296 Erik Compton 49 178 292
297 Magnus A Carlsson 51 178 286
298 Johan Carlsson 53 178 291
299 Hunter Stewart 8 178 298
300 Richard Green 42 177 294
301 Ryan Ruffels 13 176 300
302 Stephen Gallacher 44 176 288
303 Davis Love 31 176 299
304 Felipe Aguilar 48 176 297
305 Lee Slattery 55 175 293
306 Jeff Overton 47 172 302
307 Matteo Manassero 48 171 296
308 Anders Hansen 23 171 305
309 Wes Roach 27 171 306
310 Will MacKenzie 49 169 301
311 Paul Lawrie 35 163 304
312 Robert Karlsson 44 162 319
313 Marcel Schneider 8 161 311
314 Eddie Pepperell 45 160 316
315 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 41 158 308
316 Brian Davis 35 157 317
317 Bobby Wyatt 17 155 307
318 Darren Fichardt 45 155 314
319 Jason Scrivener 49 154 318
320 Brandon Stone 29 154 313
321 Thomas Bjorn 37 152 320
322 Trevor Fisher 43 151 321
323 Brandon Hagy 18 149 312
324 JT Poston 11 147 315
325 Brett Drewitt 9 145 309
326 Gregory Havret 54 145 322
327 Oliver Fisher 56 144 325
328 Ryan Armour 24 143 360
329 Pelle Edberg 53 141 342
330 Eduardo de la Riva 47 141 324
331 Derek Ernst 49 140 328
332 DA Points 51 140 323
333 Nino Bertasio 29 139 326
334 Ze-cheng Dou 8 139 330
335 Steve Allan 8 138 329
336 John Merrick 42 136 331
337 Michael Putnam 36 132 338
338 Scott Jamieson 55 132 333
339 Alex Prugh 40 130 337
340 Justin Walters 45 130 336
341 Lasse Jensen 46 129 339
342 Jbe Kruger 48 129 344
343 Miguel Angel Carballo 33 129 335
344 Adrian Otaegui 52 129 340
345 Rahil Gangjee 20 129 349
346 Masahiro Kawamura 19 128 348
347 Dawie van der Walt 40 128 347
348 Marcel Siem 48 128 341
349 Ben Evans 47 127 346
350 Justin Hicks 25 127 350
351 Nicholas Lindheim 15 126 332
352 Nick Cullen 15 126 351
353 Paul Waring 14 125 327
354 Tim Herron 29 124 354
355 Robert Dinwiddie 50 124 353
356 Zander Lombard 16 124 355
357 Brett Rumford 35 123 358
358 Tom Gillis 26 123 352
359 Tag Ridings 14 123 334
360 Sebastian Soderberg 9 121 356
361 Michael Jonzon 14 121 359
362 Thanyakorn Khrongpha 15 121 361
363 Sam Brazel 24 120 343
364 Thomas Linard 24 118 363
365 Rhein Gibson 33 117 364
366 Daniel Im 31 117 378
367 Simon Wakefield 11 116 366
368 Jordan Zunic 13 115 365
369 Wade Ormsby 38 115 357
370 Todd Sinnott 13 115 367
371 Simon Khan 28 114 368
372 Matthew Nixon 34 113 369
373 Greg Chalmers 40 112 362
374 Josh Teater 15 112 370
375 Angelo Que 14 111 373
376 Kevin Tway 16 109 413
377 Nicholas Thompson 36 107 372
378 Adilson da Silva 30 107 379
379 Aron Price 9 107 380
380 Prom Meesawat 42 107 377
381 Juvic Pagunsan 9 106 381
382 JJ Henry 55 106 371
383 Richard McEvoy 45 106 383
384 Stephan Jaeger 8 106 385
385 Craig Lee 48 105 384
386 Chris Smith 18 105 374
387 Jaco Ahlers 16 104 382
388 Jeff Winther 24 101 386
389 Mark Anderson 13 101 410
390 Seve Benson 39 101 388
391 Rhys West 11 101 387
392 Rashid Khan 17 100 393
393 Zack Sucher 23 99 375
394 Bernd Ritthammer 26 99 376
395 Angel Cabrera 40 98 391
396 Wen-tang Lin 10 98 394
397 Soo-min Lee 32 97 389
398 Gary Boyd 23 97 396
399 Paul Peterson 38 97 408
400 Nathan Holman 42 97 390
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

CareerBuilder Challenge

January 16, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,

Bill Haas
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Bill Haas 27.8 17
2 Ryan Palmer 29.4 102
3 Phil Mickelson 32.2 21
4 Francesco Molinari 33.0 12
5 Patrick Reed 35.2 12
6 Emiliano Grillo 39.2 102
7 Charles Howell 39.3 12
8 David Lingmerth 42.3 34
9 Brendan Steele 42.5 6
10 Kevin Na 44.7 70
11 Webb Simpson 44.9 66
12 Zach Johnson 45.3 87
13 Soren Kjeldsen 47.7 123
14 Keegan Bradley 47.8 25
15 Scott Piercy 48.7 41
16 Russell Henley 48.7 102
17 Luke List 49.4 41
18 Charley Hoffman 49.6 123
19 Chez Reavie 50.4 12
20 Jamie Lovemark 50.5 138
21 Kevin Kisner 51.8 25
22 Lucas Glover 52.1 41
23 Sean O’Hair 52.2 9
24 Jason Dufner 52.4 25
25 Jon Rahm 52.4 34
26 William McGirt 52.8 102
27 Chris Kirk 52.9 21
28 Adam Hadwin 53.0 2
29 Kevin Streelman 53.2 114
30 Brian Harman 54.5 3
31 Martin Laird 54.7 9
32 Stewart Cink 54.8 78
33 Daniel Summerhays 56.4 114
34 Roberto Castro 57.2 50
35 Jhonattan Vegas 58.5 34
36 Hudson Swafford 58.9 1
37 Robert Garrigus 59.0 17
38 Alex Cejka 59.5 87
39 Chad Campbell 59.9 6
40 John Senden 60.6 144
41 Jerry Kelly 60.9 102
42 Anirban Lahiri 61.2 25
43 Cameron Tringale 61.6 138
44 Graham DeLaet 61.6 78
45 Bryce Molder 61.6 50
46 Colt Knost 61.7 128
47 John Huh 61.8 148
48 David Hearn 62.0 58
49 Danny Lee 62.3 41
50 Patton Kizzire 62.4 50
51 Michael Kim 63.1 21
52 Matt Jones 63.3 DNP
53 Shawn Stefani 63.3 41
54 Ryo Ishikawa 63.7 50
55 Cameron Smith 63.8 128
56 Aaron Baddeley 63.8 75
57 Johnson Wagner 64.0 97
58 Derek Fathauer 64.0 128
59 Ben Martin 64.1 102
60 Smylie Kaufman 64.4 72
61 Camilo Villegas 64.5 97
62 Blayne Barber 64.5 114
63 Geoff Ogilvy 65.0 25
64 Jason Bohn 65.0 155
65 Harold Varner 65.1 78
66 Andrew Johnston 65.1 DNP
67 Ollie Schniederjans 65.1 58
68 Scott Brown 65.1 58
69 Fabian Gomez 65.2 78
70 Michael Thompson 65.2 114
71 Brian Stuard 65.3 78
72 Nick Watney 65.6 87
73 Kyle Reifers 65.8 149
74 Ryan Blaum 65.9 25
75 Brian Gay 66.2 123
76 Bud Cauley 66.4 3
77 Brett Stegmaier 66.4 97
78 Ben Crane 66.5 78
79 Ricky Barnes 66.8 114
80 Steve Wheatcroft 67.3 DNP
81 Andrew Loupe 67.4 156
82 Troy Merritt 67.6 87
83 Boo Weekley 67.6 78
84 Vaughn Taylor 67.7 41
85 Chris Stroud 67.8 DNP
86 Jon Curran 67.9 41
87 John Peterson 67.9 58
88 Jonas Blixt 68.2 102
89 Cameron Percy 68.4 87
90 Tim Wilkinson 68.4 25
91 Kelly Kraft 68.4 128
92 Spencer Levin 68.7 102
93 Martin Flores 69.0 102
94 Nick Taylor 69.1 34
95 Andres Gonzales 69.1 41
96 Tyrone van Aswegen 69.3 144
97 Seung-yul Noh 69.3 114
98 Rory Sabbatini 69.6 72
99 Greg Owen 69.8 17
100 Mark Wilson 70.0 138
101 Scott Stallings 70.1 8
102 Hiroshi Iwata 70.1 DNP
103 Wesley Bryan 70.2 138
104 Ken Duke 70.4 41
105 Sam Saunders 70.5 114
106 Seamus Power 70.6 21
107 Chad Collins 70.6 97
108 Steve Marino 70.8 87
109 Bryson DeChambeau 70.8 87
110 Zac Blair 70.9 34
111 Ryan Brehm 71.2 75
112 Tom Hoge 71.2 DNP
113 Xander Schauffele 71.4 149
114 Stuart Appleby 71.5 DNP
115 Tyler Aldridge 71.5 DNP
116 Steven Bowditch 71.6 58
117 Mark Hubbard 71.7 123
118 Peter Malnati 71.9 77
119 Brandon Hagy 71.9 58
120 Will MacKenzie 71.9 144
121 Brandon Stone 72.1 102
122 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 72.4 114
123 Tag Ridings 72.4 74
124 Hunter Mahan 72.5 78
125 DA Points 72.8 66
126 Trey Mullinax 72.8 50
127 Bobby Wyatt 72.8 128
128 Steven Alker 72.9 25
129 Carl Pettersson 73.3 123
130 Nicholas Lindheim 73.4 50
131 Michael Putnam 73.5 DNP
132 Bob Estes 73.7 78
133 Miguel Angel Carballo 73.7 70
134 JJ Spaun 74.0 50
135 Ryan Armour 74.0 66
136 Grayson Murray 74.3 12
137 JJ Henry 74.3 102
138 Angel Cabrera 74.4 97
139 JT Poston 74.6 34
140 Zack Sucher 74.6 128
141 Richy Werenski 74.7 9
142 Mark Anderson 74.7 114
143 Brad Fritsch 74.7 87
144 DJ Trahan 74.9 128
145 Kevin Tway 75.0 152
146 Brian Campbell 75.3 25
147 Matt Every 75.6 152
148 Aaron Wise 75.7 34
149 Brett Drewitt 75.8 154
150 Jonathan Randolph 75.8 87
151 Dominic Bozzelli 76.1 5
152 Julian Etulain 76.3 138
153 Max Homa 76.5 128
154 Sung-hoon Kang 76.6 87
155 Cheng-tsung Pan 77.0 128
156 Sebastian Munoz 77.3 138
157 Meen-whee Kim 77.5 17
158 Joel Dahmen 77.6 102
159 Rick Lamb 77.6 144
160 Charlie Beljan 79.9 149
161 Mark Brooks 84.1 128
162 John Cook 84.1 DNP
163 Chris Evans 84.1 66
164 Kenny Pigman 84.1 58
Henrik Norlander late entry 50
Paul Casey late entry 58
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 20. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.

 

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

January 16, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,
Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Dustin Johnson 17.7 2
2 Henrik Stenson 25.1 8
3 Rickie Fowler 35.0 36
4 Tyrrell Hatton 42.5 13
5 Branden Grace 43.2 13
6 Martin Kaymer 44.3 4
7 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 44.6 19
8 Joost Luiten 49.2 29
9 Bernd Wiesberger 50.2 4
10 Thomas Pieters 53.1 93
11 Lee Westwood 53.8 8
12 Byeong-Hun An 53.8 13
13 Romain Langasque 54.5 39
14 Danny Willett 54.8 121
15 Andy Sullivan 56.3 73
16 Matthew Fitzpatrick 57.0 83
17 Ross Fisher 57.2 19
18 Tommy Fleetwood 59.3 1
19 Thorbjorn Olesen 59.5 29
20 Chris Wood 59.7 83
21 Thongchai Jaidee 59.9 100
22 Richard Bland 61.1 107
23 Alejandro Canizares 62.1 60
24 Jorge Campillo 62.2 39
25 Peter Hanson 63.0 8
26 Rikard Karlberg 63.5 83
27 Nicolas Colsaerts 63.6 100
28 David Horsey 63.8 29
29 Jeunghun Wang 64.1 11
30 Jamie Donaldson 64.3 29
31 George Coetzee 64.3 60
32 Gregory Bourdy 64.5 60
33 Pablo Larrazabal 64.7 2
34 Ian Poulter 65.2 39
35 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 65.2 4
36 Mikko Ilonen 65.8 100
37 Raphael Jacquelin 66.0 93
38 Fabrizio Zanotti 66.1 100
39 Bradley Dredge 66.5 19
40 Ricardo Gouveia 66.5 23
41 David Lipsky 66.5 39
42 Jaco van Zyl 66.6 23
43 Anthony Wall 66.7 39
44 Scott Hend 67.2 100
45 Alexander Levy 67.3 83
46 Joakim Lagergren 67.3 115
47 Thomas Aiken 67.4 13
48 Julien Quesne 67.9 49
49 David Howell 67.9 74
50 Matteo Manassero 68.3 39
51 Peter Uihlein 68.6 49
52 Richie Ramsay 68.9 57
53 Mikko Korhonen 69.1 60
54 Stephen Gallacher 69.1 74
55 Marc Warren 69.2 49
56 Benjamin Hebert 69.4 29
57 Renato Paratore 69.4 74
58 Nacho Elvira 69.4 36
59 Robert Rock 69.6 74
60 Lucas Bjerregaard 69.8 66
61 James Morrison 69.9 93
62 Dean Burmester 70.0 7
63 Johan Carlsson 70.1 39
64 Matthew Southgate 70.2 83
65 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 70.3 57
66 Maximilian Kieffer 70.3 12
67 Paul Dunne 70.4 39
68 Joel Stalter 70.8 DNP
69 David Drysdale 71.0 57
70 Graeme Storm 71.0 115
71 Callum Shinkwin 71.0 23
72 Felipe Aguilar 71.0 107
73 Ryan Fox 71.1 19
74 Paul Lawrie 71.3 107
75 Romain Wattel 71.7 66
76 Darren Fichardt 71.8 119
77 Jason Scrivener 71.8 39
78 Oliver Fisher 71.9 23
79 Pep Angles 72.0 DNP
80 Thomas Bjorn 72.0 23
81 Kristoffer Broberg 72.1 83
82 Magnus A Carlsson 72.2 29
83 Robert Karlsson 72.3 70
84 Marcel Siem 72.5 100
85 Justin Walters 72.6 83
86 Chris Hanson 72.6 23
87 Chris Paisley 72.8 29
88 Trevor Fisher 72.8 74
89 Scott Jamieson 72.9 36
90 Adrian Otaegui 73.0 70
91 Brett Rumford 73.0 83
92 Eduardo de la Riva 73.1 60
93 Wade Ormsby 73.2 74
94 Lee Slattery 73.4 69
95 Lasse Jensen 73.4 100
96 Nino Bertasio 73.5 115
97 Gregory Havret 73.5 74
98 Eddie Pepperell 73.6 126
99 Andrew Dodt 73.7 66
100 Pelle Edberg 73.8 74
101 Paul Waring 73.9 107
102 Thomas Detry 74.1 DNP
103 Tom Lewis 74.3 93
104 Gary Stal 74.4 49
105 Niclas Fasth 74.5 93
106 Dylan Frittelli 74.6 123
107 Sam Brazel 74.6 60
108 Jordan L Smith 74.7 DNP
109 Daniel Im 75.0 49
110 Soo-min Lee 75.1 107
111 Haydn Porteous 75.1 119
112 Sebastien Gros 75.1 124
113 Paul Peterson 75.2 74
114 Daniel Brooks 75.3 49
115 Shiv Chawrasia 75.3 70
116 Nathan Holman 75.4 124
117 Alvaro Quiros 75.6 49
118 Darren Clarke 75.7 121
119 Simon Dyson 77.0 93
120 Sam Walker 77.1 83
121 Bernd Ritthammer 77.9 83
122 Jose-Filipe Lima 79.9 DNP
123 Shih-chang Chan 80.0 DNP
124 Alexander Bjork 81.7 13
125 Damien Perrier 81.9 DNP
126 Duncan Stewart 82.2 115
127 Curtis Luck 83.2 49
128 Trevor Immelman 83.5 93
129 Matthieu Pavon 83.9 107
130 Alexander Knappe 84.0 107
131 Marcus Armitage 84.1 DNP
132 Alex Noren 84.1 13
133 Rayhan Thomas 84.1 107
Jordan Smith late entry 39
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 302. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.

 

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Jan. 15, 2017)

January 16, 2017 Thomas Hawley

Jason Day, inactive last week and again this week, remains on top in the ratings for the 35th week in a row.
# Thru January 15, 2017 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Jason Day 39 1933 1
2 Dustin Johnson 49 1673 3
3 Rory McIlroy 43 1670 2
4 Jordan Spieth 53 1585 4
5 Henrik Stenson 47 1454 6
6 Hideki Matsuyama 48 1436 5
7 Adam Scott 42 1341 7
8 Justin Rose 49 1313 9
9 Paul Casey 50 1237 8
10 Rickie Fowler 53 1210 10
11 Sergio Garcia 43 1203 11
12 Patrick Reed 66 1191 12
13 Phil Mickelson 45 1189 13
14 Brooks Koepka 51 1155 14
15 Jim Furyk 35 1143 15
16 Bubba Watson 43 1113 16
17 Matt Kuchar 58 1108 17
18 Justin Thomas 58 1077 20
19 Kevin Na 54 1031 18
20 Ryan Moore 47 1020 19
21 Branden Grace 52 1016 21
22 Francesco Molinari 47 979 23
23 Louis Oosthuizen 49 976 22
24 Zach Johnson 53 972 26
25 Gary Woodland 53 955 30
26 Bill Haas 53 940 28
27 Charl Schwartzel 49 938 25
28 Russell Knox 61 937 29
29 Ryan Palmer 45 897 24
30 Billy Horschel 51 889 27
31 JB Holmes 50 887 33
32 Daniel Berger 57 877 31
33 Brendan Steele 50 870 34
34 Jon Rahm 15 865 35
35 Emiliano Grillo 57 865 36
36 Brandt Snedeker 60 861 32
37 Kevin Kisner 58 851 41
38 Charles Howell 57 843 42
39 Kevin Chappell 54 822 38
40 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 57 810 40
41 Scott Piercy 55 799 37
42 Marc Leishman 51 785 44
43 Jimmy Walker 53 778 39
44 Tony Finau 58 767 48
45 Webb Simpson 45 765 51
46 Tyrrell Hatton 50 764 45
47 William McGirt 55 754 43
48 Daniel Summerhays 55 750 47
49 Jamie Lovemark 40 749 61
50 Russell Henley 50 744 54
51 Danny Willett 49 741 50
52 Jason Dufner 50 733 46
53 Martin Kaymer 52 718 53
54 Chris Kirk 53 715 49
55 Steve Stricker 27 708 55
56 Soren Kjeldsen 60 706 52
57 Si-woo Kim 41 705 56
58 Charley Hoffman 54 702 57
59 Shane Lowry 48 684 59
60 Keegan Bradley 55 669 58
61 Byeong-Hun An 51 664 63
62 Jason Kokrak 55 660 64
63 Sean O’Hair 55 659 69
64 Alexander Noren 39 648 67
65 Chez Reavie 52 647 72
66 Robert Streb 56 644 62
67 David Lingmerth 59 638 65
68 Pat Perez 37 633 60
69 Harris English 58 626 66
70 Bernd Wiesberger 58 620 68
71 Brian Harman 62 608 71
72 Jim Herman 55 601 82
73 Luke List 38 597 83
74 Mackenzie Hughes 10 595 76
75 Kevin Streelman 52 580 75
76 Danny Lee 68 579 74
77 Andy Sullivan 59 578 70
78 Lucas Glover 51 561 79
79 Adam Hadwin 56 560 80
80 Jerry Kelly 46 560 73
81 James Hahn 53 557 77
82 Lee Westwood 47 553 81
83 Luke Donald 54 550 84
84 Roberto Castro 47 550 85
85 Graeme McDowell 58 545 86
86 Chad Campbell 58 543 78
87 Martin Laird 48 531 88
88 Stewart Cink 46 530 89
89 Victor Dubuisson 39 529 90
90 Alex Cejka 54 524 91
91 Matthew Fitzpatrick 58 522 92
92 Patton Kizzire 36 520 93
93 David Hearn 61 519 87
94 Jhonattan Vegas 60 514 97
95 Thomas Pieters 49 513 100
96 Joost Luiten 51 504 103
97 Bryce Molder 55 500 102
98 Anirban Lahiri 54 497 94
99 John Senden 57 495 98
100 Patrick Rodgers 49 495 95
101 Johnson Wagner 50 495 96
102 Smylie Kaufman 40 493 99
103 Graham DeLaet 43 493 106
104 Colt Knost 54 492 101
105 Ross Fisher 47 487 108
106 Freddie Jacobson 39 486 109
107 Scott Brown 54 482 105
108 Chris Wood 53 481 110
109 Jason Bohn 49 480 104
110 Cameron Tringale 56 480 111
111 Hudson Swafford 59 478 124
112 Will Wilcox 37 477 112
113 Ben Martin 54 466 115
114 Fabian Gomez 54 465 113
115 Tiger Woods 12 463 116
116 Thongchai Jaidee 58 458 117
117 Romain Langasque 9 452 107
118 Harold Varner 39 451 114
119 Tommy Fleetwood 55 446 119
120 Matt Jones 54 444 118
121 Kyle Stanley 46 442 122
122 John Huh 59 438 132
123 Robert Garrigus 51 435 125
124 Kyle Reifers 66 430 121
125 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 56 427 129
126 Retief Goosen 43 424 120
127 Cameron Smith 47 423 136
128 Nick Watney 31 422 128
129 Ian Poulter 45 422 127
130 Billy Hurley 51 420 140
131 Haotong Li 31 412 135
132 Bud Cauley 22 411 123
133 Shawn Stefani 53 409 133
134 Jamie Donaldson 50 407 130
135 Richard Bland 56 402 134
136 Cody Gribble 17 399 126
137 Geoff Ogilvy 41 397 137
138 Sangmoon Bae 25 395 139
139 Sung Kang 41 394 138
140 Michael Kim 37 392 158
141 Ryan Blaum 14 385 131
142 Aaron Baddeley 57 379 145
143 Jon Curran 58 372 142
144 Derek Fathauer 61 372 143
145 KJ Choi 44 372 141
146 Ricky Barnes 60 370 144
147 Blayne Barber 52 368 149
148 Brett Stegmaier 38 367 148
149 Rikard Karlberg 45 367 151
150 Thorbjorn Olesen 51 365 153
151 Alejandro Canizares 50 364 152
152 Ryo Ishikawa 36 360 155
153 Ollie Schniederjans 24 358 171
154 Jonas Blixt 55 358 147
155 Boo Weekley 53 356 146
156 Padraig Harrington 54 353 159
157 Andrew Loupe 44 350 162
158 Spencer Levin 66 349 157
159 Troy Merritt 58 349 156
160 Vaughn Taylor 43 349 154
161 Andrew Johnston 51 349 161
162 David Toms 40 348 150
163 Gregory Bourdy 58 345 163
164 Chris Stroud 59 343 167
165 George Coetzee 48 336 160
166 Fabrizio Zanotti 45 335 169
167 Camilo Villegas 58 334 164
168 David Horsey 51 332 165
169 Henrik Norlander 31 331 194
170 Vijay Singh 48 331 166
171 Peter Hanson 34 329 173
172 Ashun Wu 22 327 174
173 Jaco van Zyl 48 327 170
174 Whee Kim 52 327 172
175 Bradley Dredge 44 323 178
176 Jorge Campillo 56 323 179
177 Richard Sterne 41 321 181
178 Julien Quesne 51 321 180
179 Anthony Wall 44 317 182
180 Austin Cook 16 317 177
181 CT Pan 16 315 183
182 Tyrone van Aswegen 56 314 176
183 Morgan Hoffmann 55 309 175
184 Mikko Ilonen 45 308 184
185 Scott Hend 61 305 189
186 John Peterson 26 305 168
187 Nicolas Colsaerts 55 304 188
188 Michael Thompson 57 303 209
189 Alexander Levy 50 302 190
190 George McNeill 53 302 185
191 Greg Owen 50 298 192
192 Ben Crane 52 298 186
193 David Howell 49 294 193
194 Cameron Percy 42 290 187
195 Seung-yul Noh 52 289 191
196 Pablo Larrazabal 48 287 195
197 Andres Romero 41 281 197
198 James Morrison 56 280 198
199 Jeunghun Wang 34 279 200
200 Steve Wheatcroft 53 279 196
201 Kenny Perry 10 278 206
202 Joakim Lagergren 48 278 204
203 Sam Saunders 52 277 203
204 Brian Stuard 55 277 202
205 Marc Warren 53 276 199
206 Justin Leonard 31 276 210
207 Tim Wilkinson 56 275 216
208 Rory Sabbatini 50 273 201
209 Jordan Niebrugge 8 272 205
210 Bronson Burgoon 32 270 211
211 Zac Blair 66 270 207
212 Scott Stallings 50 269 212
213 Peter Uihlein 41 268 219
214 Steven Bowditch 62 266 213
215 Nick Taylor 53 266 208
216 Ricardo Gouveia 30 263 218
217 Brian Gay 20 263 318
218 Thomas Aiken 59 262 222
219 Jason Gore 53 259 221
220 Brendon Todd 53 259 215
221 Benjamin Hebert 55 257 225
222 Tom Hoge 55 257 224
223 Ken Duke 50 254 217
224 Lee McCoy 12 253 232
225 Miguel Angel Jimenez 35 253 223
226 Richie Ramsay 44 252 226
227 Paul Dunne 31 250 228
228 Florian Fritsch 30 249 230
229 Matthew Southgate 30 248 220
230 Bryson DeChambeau 30 247 227
231 David Lipsky 60 246 236
232 Andres Gonzales 60 245 239
233 Oscar Fraustro 23 245 238
234 Chesson Hadley 57 245 231
235 Scott Langley 55 245 235
236 Hiroshi Iwata 42 241 229
237 Marcus Fraser 51 239 237
238 Wesley Bryan 11 236 214
239 Steve Marino 32 236 233
240 Hunter Mahan 49 235 242
241 Luke Guthrie 48 234 243
242 Lucas Bjerregaard 60 232 241
243 Mikko Korhonen 44 230 250
244 Brendon de Jonge 62 230 245
245 Raphael Jacquelin 54 229 246
246 Maximilian Kieffer 51 228 247
247 Kelly Kraft 34 228 269
248 YE Yang 37 227 273
249 Chad Collins 50 226 240
250 Michael Lorenzo-Vera 45 224 249
251 Rod Pampling 43 223 244
252 Brice Garnett 46 223 251
253 Mark Wilson 49 222 252
254 Xander Schauffele 11 220 234
255 Kristoffer Broberg 51 220 255
256 Martin Flores 38 219 253
257 Ernie Els 54 218 248
258 Jonathan Byrd 34 217 257
259 Scott Pinckney 53 216 254
260 Robert Rock 44 214 259
261 Rob Oppenheim 30 213 260
262 Seamus Power 13 213 258
263 Peter Malnati 45 212 279
264 Martin Piller 29 212 261
265 Tyler Aldridge 37 210 262
266 Stuart Appleby 36 209 263
267 Joe Affrunti 8 208 265
268 Carl Pettersson 53 207 256
269 Bo Van Pelt 29 205 264
270 Romain Wattel 53 203 267
271 Kyung-tae Kim 15 202 268
272 Prayad Marksaeng 10 199 271
273 Mark Hubbard 59 198 266
274 Callum Shinkwin 26 197 272
275 Graeme Storm 57 196 286
276 Dean Burmester 21 194 303
277 Renato Paratore 59 193 276
278 Nacho Elvira 39 193 275
279 Ryan Brehm 9 193 288
280 Stephen Gallacher 44 191 277
281 Trey Mullinax 15 190 270
282 Carlos Ortiz 58 188 278
283 Felipe Aguilar 48 185 284
284 David Drysdale 60 185 294
285 Andrew Landry 25 184 282
286 Lee Slattery 53 184 281
287 Bobby Wyatt 15 183 289
288 Erik Compton 51 182 285
289 Will MacKenzie 47 182 280
290 Richard Green 44 180 290
291 Johan Carlsson 53 180 292
292 Paul Lawrie 35 180 291
293 Magnus A Carlsson 51 178 293
294 Matteo Manassero 48 177 297
295 Davis Love 31 177 295
296 Hunter Stewart 8 177 300
297 Tim Clark 14 176 301
298 Steven Alker 30 175 283
299 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 41 175 287
300 Brandon Hagy 17 175 274
301 Ryan Ruffels 13 175 304
302 Brandon Stone 27 173 296
303 Jeff Overton 49 173 302
304 Anders Hansen 25 171 305
305 Wes Roach 27 170 306
306 Darren Fichardt 45 169 308
307 Eddie Pepperell 46 168 299
308 Marcel Schneider 8 165 310
309 Paul Waring 14 163 298
310 Chris Hanson 23 163 311
311 Brian Davis 37 163 309
312 Robert Karlsson 44 162 313
313 Chris Paisley 50 157 312
314 Gregory Havret 54 156 316
315 Trevor Fisher 42 156 325
316 Ryan Fox 20 156 317
317 Jason Scrivener 47 156 319
318 DA Points 49 155 315
319 Eduardo de la Riva 46 151 320
320 Tag Ridings 12 151 307
321 Nino Bertasio 27 150 314
322 Miguel Angel Carballo 31 143 321
323 Derek Ernst 50 141 327
324 Justin Walters 43 140 333
325 Alex Prugh 41 139 323
326 John Merrick 44 139 329
327 Steve Allan 8 139 331
328 Adrian Otaegui 51 138 324
329 Lasse Jensen 44 138 332
330 Michael Putnam 38 138 328
331 Marcel Siem 48 138 326
332 Sam Brazel 22 138 334
333 Ze-cheng Dou 8 137 336
334 Pelle Edberg 51 135 337
335 Nicholas Lindheim 13 135 322
336 Scott Jamieson 55 133 338
337 Thomas Bjorn 36 132 340
338 Ryan Armour 23 131 339
339 Wade Ormsby 38 131 343
340 Oliver Fisher 56 129 344
341 Ben Evans 47 128 345
342 Jbe Kruger 50 128 354
343 Brett Rumford 36 127 341
344 Dawie van der Walt 42 127 346
345 Rahil Gangjee 20 126 350
346 Tom Gillis 27 126 347
347 Masahiro Kawamura 19 126 352
348 Robert Dinwiddie 50 125 351
349 JJ Spaun 11 125 330
350 Justin Hicks 27 125 357
351 Tim Herron 29 124 353
352 Sebastian Soderberg 9 124 364
353 Nick Cullen 15 124 355
354 Zander Lombard 16 123 335
355 Michael Jonzon 14 121 360
356 Thanyakorn Khrongpha 15 120 361
357 Greg Chalmers 39 120 349
358 Rhein Gibson 33 118 363
359 Thomas Linard 24 118 365
360 JJ Henry 54 117 356
361 JT Poston 9 116 342
362 Zack Sucher 21 116 367
363 Bernd Ritthammer 24 116 348
364 Jordan Zunic 13 115 366
365 Simon Wakefield 11 114 369
366 Todd Sinnott 13 113 370
367 Nicholas Thompson 38 113 368
368 Simon Khan 30 112 372
369 Matthew Nixon 36 112 362
370 Josh Teater 15 111 373
371 Chris Smith 18 110 371
372 Angelo Que 14 108 379
373 Prom Meesawat 43 107 376
374 Daniel Im 29 107 377
375 Angel Cabrera 40 107 374
376 Juvic Pagunsan 9 107 378
377 Jaco Ahlers 16 107 358
378 Adilson da Silva 30 106 375
379 Aron Price 9 106 384
380 Richard McEvoy 45 105 383
381 Soo-min Lee 30 105 385
382 Craig Lee 50 104 387
383 Stephan Jaeger 8 104 389
384 Mark Anderson 11 104 381
385 Nathan Holman 40 104 388
386 Jeff Winther 24 103 412
387 Rhys West 11 102 359
388 Seve Benson 41 102 390
389 Haydn Porteous 34 101 382
390 Gary Stal 47 100 391
391 Rashid Khan 17 98 394
392 Wen-tang Lin 10 97 395
393 Gary Boyd 23 97 400
394 Shih-chang Chan 10 96 399
395 Mikael Lundberg 42 96 398
396 Marcus Kinhult 12 96 393
397 Sebastien Gros 26 96 402
398 Dylan Frittelli 18 96 380
399 Richard Lee 19 95 397
400 Keith Horne 22 95 419
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Sony Open in Hawaii

January 10, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,

Hideki Matsuyama
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual finish
1 Hideki Matsuyama 23.1 27
2 Paul Casey 26.8 110
3 Jordan Spieth 27.4 3
4 Ryan Palmer 34.6 143
5 Jimmy Walker 35.4 83
6 Justin Thomas 37.9 1
7 Justin Rose 38.7 2
8 Scott Piercy 40.4 57
9 Charles Howell 40.6 8
10 Bill Haas 42.6 13
11 Kevin Na 42.9 36
12 Gary Woodland 44.1 6
13 Keegan Bradley 45.5 117
14 Chris Kirk 45.5 117
15 Billy Horschel 46.1 68
16 Daniel Berger 46.7 45
17 Soren Kjeldsen 46.8 96
18 Russell Knox 46.8 11
19 Marc Leishman 46.8 20
20 Zach Johnson 47.1 6
21 Pat Perez 47.4 69
22 Branden Grace 47.6 13
23 Harris English 49.1 83
24 Brandt Snedeker 49.8 96
25 Webb Simpson 50.8 13
26 Russell Henley 51.2 13
27 William McGirt 51.6 49
28 Jason Dufner 52.3 139
29 Luke List 52.4 13
30 Tony Finau 53.5 20
31 Kevin Kisner 54.4 4
32 Stewart Cink 54.5 36
33 David Lingmerth 55.1 49
34 Chez Reavie 55.2 8
35 James Hahn 55.8 36
36 Brian Harman 55.9 20
37 Anirban Lahiri 55.9 127
38 Si-woo Kim 56.7 DNP
39 Daniel Summerhays 56.9 36
40 Jamie Lovemark 57.1 4
41 Jerry Kelly 57.1 83
42 Sean O’Hair 57.7 11
43 Chad Campbell 57.9 74
44 Robert Streb 59.2 49
45 Kyle Stanley 59.7 36
46 Jim Herman 59.8 10
47 John Senden 59.8 110
48 Derek Fathauer 59.9 117
49 David Hearn 60.3 96
50 Patrick Rodgers 60.6 83
51 Hudson Swafford 60.8 13
52 Johnson Wagner 61.3 117
53 Colt Knost 62.4 83
54 Fabian Gomez 62.9 72
55 Ryan Blaum 63.0 74
56 Michael Kim 63.2 20
57 Bryce Molder 63.4 49
58 Harold Varner 63.4 83
59 Cameron Smith 63.5 27
60 Ben Martin 63.6 36
61 John Huh 63.6 27
62 Smylie Kaufman 63.9 83
63 Scott Brown 64.1 64
64 Billy Hurley 64.3 20
65 Mackenzie Hughes 64.5 27
66 Camilo Villegas 64.6 96
67 Shawn Stefani 64.7 36
68 Troy Merritt 64.8 127
69 Kyle Reifers 65.1 127
70 Jason Bohn 65.4 62
71 Bud Cauley 66.1 127
72 Ben Crane 66.4 127
73 Cody Gribble 66.4 96
74 Brian Stuard 66.5 45
75 John Peterson 66.6 83
76 Vaughn Taylor 66.6 57
77 Ricky Barnes 66.7 142
78 Henrik Norlander 66.8 20
79 KJ Choi 66.9 127
80 Zac Blair 67.0 57
81 Rod Pampling 67.0 64
82 David Toms 67.1 110
83 Boo Weekley 67.1 141
84 Vijay Singh 67.2 57
85 Tyrone van Aswegen 67.2 117
86 Jon Curran 67.3 69
87 Nick Taylor 67.6 96
88 Cameron Percy 67.9 80
89 Jonas Blixt 67.9 83
90 Ollie Schniederjans 68.0 27
91 Spencer Levin 68.0 127
92 Seung-yul Noh 68.4 96
93 Michael Thompson 68.7 20
94 Tim Wilkinson 68.8 36
95 Xander Schauffele 69.1 96
96 Wesley Bryan 69.2 110
97 Morgan Hoffmann 69.6 117
98 Steve Marino 69.7 140
99 Hiroshi Iwata 70.0 135
100 Rory Sabbatini 70.0 45
101 Andres Gonzales 70.0 36
102 Ken Duke 70.1 73
103 Seamus Power 70.1 49
104 Chad Collins 70.4 83
105 Bryson DeChambeau 70.5 49
106 Ryan Brehm 70.5 45
107 Tag Ridings 71.0 74
108 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 71.3 63
109 Will MacKenzie 71.4 117
110 Brandon Hagy 71.5 80
111 Kelly Kraft 71.5 27
112 Steven Bowditch 71.5 DNP
113 Bob Estes 71.6 143
114 Brian Gay 71.8 13
115 Carl Pettersson 72.1 82
116 Mark Hubbard 72.2 96
117 Steven Alker 72.3 110
118 Nicholas Lindheim 72.3 137
119 YE Yang 72.4 27
120 DA Points 72.7 DNP
121 Trey Mullinax 72.8 57
122 Miguel Angel Carballo 72.9 127
123 Peter Malnati 73.1 27
124 Greg Chalmers 73.3 96
125 JJ Spaun 73.6 117
126 JT Poston 73.9 64
127 Ryan Armour 73.9 DNP
128 JJ Henry 74.2 83
129 Hideto Tanihara 74.4 27
130 Kevin Tway 74.5 117
131 Zack Sucher 74.6 DNP
132 Brad Fritsch 75.0 DNP
133 Miguel Tabuena 75.0 64
134 Matt Every 75.1 117
135 Brian Campbell 75.2 DNP
136 Richy Werenski 75.3 49
137 Brett Drewitt 75.8 DNP
138 Dominic Bozzelli 76.1 DNP
139 Cheng-tsung Pan 76.7 96
140 Sebastian Munoz 77.3 DNP
141 Meen-whee Kim 77.5 79
142 Sung-hoon Kang 77.5 83
143 Yusaku Miyazato 81.2 96
144 Daisuke Kataoka 81.9 96
145 Hyung-sung Kim 82.6 74
146 Fred Funk 83.5 74
147 Satoshi Kodaira 83.7 49
148 Parker McLachlin 84.1 83
149 Brent Grant 84.1 110
150 Kevin Hayashi 84.1 137
Jared Sawada late entry 69
John Oda late entry 96
John Chin late entry 110
Tadd Fujikawa late entry 135
More | Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 246. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.

 

BMW SA Open hosted by City of Ekurhuleni

January 10, 2017 Thomas Hawley ,
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Rory McIlroy -14.7 2
2 Andy Sullivan 48.7 109
3 Romain Langasque 50.3 21
4 Retief Goosen 57.7 135
5 David Horsey 58.2 102
6 Richard Bland 58.8 109
7 Hennie Otto 59.6 78
8 Jaco van Zyl 60.2 18
9 George Coetzee 61.5 90
10 Thomas Aiken 63.1 5
11 Richard Sterne 63.1 DNP
12 Jamie Donaldson 63.6 69
13 James Morrison 67.7 13
14 Matthew Southgate 68.2 135
15 Lucas Bjerregaard 68.4 57
16 Trevor Fisher 69.3 5
17 Mikko Korhonen 70.5 7
18 David Drysdale 70.8 7
19 Peter Uihlein 71.8 7
20 Lee Slattery 71.8 135
21 Graeme Storm 71.8 1
22 Paul Waring 73.5 37
23 Justin Walters 73.9 21
24 Chris Paisley 74.0 142
25 Darren Fichardt 74.1 26
26 Ernie Els 74.1 69
27 Dean Burmester 74.1 4
28 Eddie Pepperell 74.5 121
29 Marcel Siem 74.7 109
30 Jbe Kruger 75.2 21
31 Brett Rumford 75.3 68
32 Matthew Nixon 75.5 78
33 Adrian Otaegui 75.6 55
34 Bernd Ritthammer 75.7 90
35 Jaco Ahlers 75.7 102
36 Chris Hanson 75.7 26
37 Keith Horne 75.8 21
38 Brandon Stone 75.9 31
39 Carlos Pigem 75.9 146
40 Thomas Linard 76.1 DNP
41 Oliver Fisher 76.1 26
42 Zander Lombard 76.6 90
43 Rhys West 76.8 146
44 Nino Bertasio 76.8 142
45 Erik Van Rooyen 76.9 90
46 Tjaart van der Walt 76.9 69
47 Garth Mulroy 76.9 52
48 Richard McEvoy 77.0 DNP
49 Sebastian Soderberg 77.1 26
50 Adilson da Silva 77.2 40
51 Ben Evans 77.2 DNP
52 Alex Haindl 77.5 102
53 Dawie van der Walt 77.6 31
54 Jean Hugo 77.7 69
55 Simon Khan 77.8 DNP
56 Robert Dinwiddie 77.9 DNP
57 Dylan Frittelli 78.0 78
58 Jeff Winther 78.1 14
59 Paul Maddy 78.1 62
60 Seve Benson 78.2 DNP
61 Niclas Fasth 78.4 66
62 Tom Lewis 79.0 18
63 Jens Fahrbring 79.1 18
64 Haydn Porteous 79.1 69
65 Daniel Brooks 79.1 52
66 Merrick Bremner 79.2 78
67 Gary Boyd 79.4 DNP
68 Colin Nel 79.4 90
69 John Parry 79.7 40
70 Shaun Norris 79.7 52
71 Ashley Chesters 79.8 135
72 Neil Schietekat 79.9 121
73 Scott Henry 79.9 78
74 Darren Clarke 79.9 109
75 Edoardo Molinari 80.2 7
76 Matt Ford 80.2 DNP
77 Adrien Saddier 80.4 DNP
78 Espen Kofstad 80.5 31
79 Ryan Evans 80.5 DNP
80 Mark Foster 80.5 31
81 Vaughn Groenewald 80.7 142
82 Ulrich van den Berg 80.8 40
83 Doug McGuigan 80.9 109
84 Johan Edfors 81.1 DNP
85 Ricardo Gonzalez 81.2 90
86 Bryce Easton 81.4 128
87 Jacques Blaauw 81.4 21
88 Borja Virto Astudillo 81.5 DNP
89 Chris Swanepoel 81.6 102
90 Pep Angles 81.7 60
91 Max Orrin 81.7 90
92 Morten Orum Madsen 81.7 49
93 Thomas Detry 81.7 40
94 Louis de Jager 82.0 40
95 Duncan Stewart 82.0 152
96 Andrew Curlewis 82.4 121
97 Oliver Bekker 82.4 121
98 Laurie Canter 82.6 14
99 Alexander Bjork 82.7 7
100 Tyrone Ferreira 82.9 78
101 Joel Stalter 82.9 7
102 Anthony Michael 82.9 128
103 Ross McGowan 82.9 49
104 Danie van Tonder 83.1 55
105 Curtis Luck 83.2 DNP
106 Lyle Rowe 83.2 WD
107 Oscar Stark 83.2 DNP
108 Justin Harding 83.3 31
109 Scott Vincent 83.3 109
110 Jacques Kruyswijk 83.4 57
111 Nathan Kimsey 83.4 142
112 James Heath 83.4 DNP
113 JC Ritchie 83.4 121
114 Daniel Greene 83.5 109
115 Julien Guerrier 83.5 DNP
116 Steven Tiley 83.5 57
117 Simon Dyson 83.6 49
118 Christiaan Basson 83.6 69
119 Jordan L Smith 83.6 3
120 Reinier Saxton 83.6 DNP
121 Pontus Widegren 83.6 37
122 Matthieu Pavon 83.7 69
123 Sebastian Heisele 83.7 78
124 Steven Ferreira 83.7 109
125 Toby Tree 83.7 109
126 Damien Perrier 83.7 78
127 Sam Walker 83.8 135
128 Aaron Rai 83.8 DNP
129 Richard S Johnson 83.8 14
130 Madalisto Muthiya 83.9 102
131 Jean-Paul Strydom 83.9 121
132 Jamie Rutherford 84.0 90
133 Gary King 84.0 14
134 Jens Dantorp 84.0 DNP
135 Ben Stow 84.0 DNP
136 Niclas Johansson 84.0 WD
137 Christofer Blomstrand 84.0 109
138 Garrick Porteous 84.0 DNP
139 Marcus Armitage 84.0 78
140 Rafa Echenique 84.1 40
141 Rourke van der Spuy 84.1 40
142 Hennie du Plessis 84.1 90
143 Trevor Dodds 84.1 121
144 Charles Bolling 84.1 146
145 Nick Faldo 84.1 78
146 Jovan Rebula 84.1 102
147 Kyle McClatchie 84.1 69
148 Marco Steyn 84.1 69
149 Craig Ross 84.1 128
150 Dylan Naidoo 84.1 152
151 Marc Cayeux 84.1 149
152 CJ du Plessis 84.1 90
153 Jonathan Agren 84.1 40
154 Alexander Knappe 84.1 31
155 Anton Karlsson 84.1 128
156 Gareth Maybin 84.1 DNP
157 Titch Moore 84.1 61
158 Ruan de Smidt 84.2 78
159 Peter Karmis 84.3 78
160 James Kingston 84.4 26
161 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 84.4 37
162 Ockie Strydom 84.5 67
Michael Hollick late entry 40
James Kamte late entry 62
Stefan Andersen late entry 64
Andrew Georgiou late entry 64
Andrew McLardy late entry 90
Lindani Ndwandwe late entry 90
Makhetha Mazibuko late entry 102
Heinrich Bruiners late entry 109
Philip Geerts late entry 109
Sipho Bujela late entry 128
Juran Dreyer late entry 128
Johan Van der Wath late entry 128
Theunis Bezuidenhout late entry 135
Callum Mowat late entry 135
Darin De Smidt late entry 149
Derick Petersen late entry 149
Joubert Van Eeden late entry 154
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The accuracy number for these picks is 220. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of predictions from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order from the top pick to win the event and then downward. The Finish Estimate reflects a stew of data, and for each player it is unique for this event, this course. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite.