A look at the RBC Canadian Open

June 5, 2023 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Shane Lowry 0.755
Rory McIlroy 0.650
Brandt Snedeker 0.616
Charley Hoffman 0.495
Adam Hadwin 0.490
Matt Kuchar 0.448
Kelly Kraft 0.434
Hank Lebioda 0.430

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Rory McIlroy 4 2089.2
Tyrrell Hatton 7 1647.0
Matthew Fitzpatrick 13 1435.2
Sam Burns 15 1395.4
Cameron Young 23 1216.8
Shane Lowry 24 1211.1
Justin Rose 25 1205.2
Tommy Fleetwood 26 1201.7

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G4D Tour @ Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed Power Ratings

June 5, 2023 Thomas Hawley ,

Considering the men entered (and lacking comparable data on the women) in this week’s Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed tournament near Stockholm, Sweden, we will go with returning homie Alex Noren as favorite. Noren has been playing the PGA Tour since February and had a recent semi-bounce-back, making cuts at the Memorial and Schwab the last two weeks after four straight missed cuts between the Masters and PGA. Consider Maxmilian Kieffer as a player more steadily headed in the right direction after he posted top-10s twice in the last four DP World Tour events, including as runner-up last week.

This event, which features men and women competitors at different tee boxes competing for one purse, is at Ullna Golf Club. Lake Ullna comes into play on several holes. Per golfshake.com, the course features narrow, tree-lined fairways and some extremely challenging holes, most notably the par-three fifth, which is played to an island green. The course measures just 6,819 yards.


Alex Noren
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Alex Noren 54.4 10
2 Alexander Bjork 59.9 7
3 Jason Scrivener 63.1 35
4 Maximilian Kieffer 63.3 75
5 Robert MacIntyre 63.5 62
6 Marc Warren 65.5 22
7 Santiago Tarrio Ben 67.4 75
8 Antoine Rozner 67.7 23
9 Adri Arnaus 68.0 62
10 Julien Brun 68.3 51
11 Matthew Southgate 68.4 10
12 Jorge Campillo 68.6 52
13 Yannik Paul 68.8 3
14 Ewen Ferguson 68.8 62
15 Grant Forrest 68.8 78
16 Joost Luiten 68.8 37
17 Niklas Norgaard Moller 69.0 17
18 Callum Shinkwin 69.1 62
19 Marcus Armitage 69.2 52
20 Darius van Driel 69.4 17
21 Julien Guerrier 69.5 17
22 Richard Mansell 69.7 28
23 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 69.8 68
24 Edoardo Molinari 69.9 52
25 Paul Waring 70.0 4
26 Shubhankar Sharma 70.1 46
27 Johannes Veerman 70.1 37
28 James Morrison 70.2 47
29 Matthew Jordan 70.2 7
30 Dale Whitnell 70.4 1
31 Marcus Kinhult 70.4 36
32 Jamie Donaldson 70.5 77
33 Richie Ramsay 70.5 4
34 Masahiro Kawamura 70.6 28
35 Rafa Cabrera Bello 70.7 37
36 Kalle Samooja 70.7 52
37 Sebastian Soderberg 70.7 23
38 Eddie Pepperell 70.8 10
39 Jazz Janewattananond 70.8 23
40 Connor Syme 70.9 72
41 Zander Lombard 71.1 52
42 Oliver Bekker 71.2 47
43 Gavin Green 71.2 45
44 Daniel Gavins 71.2 10
45 Marcus Helligkilde 71.4 72
46 Simon Forsstrom 71.6 28
47 Hurly Long 71.7 28
48 David Law 71.8 10
49 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 71.9 DNP
50 Justin Walters 72.0 17
51 John Catlin 72.0 17
52 Matthew Baldwin 72.0 28
53 Angel Hidalgo 72.0 DNP
54 Tapio Pulkkanen 72.1 28
55 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 72.2 52
56 Andy Sullivan 72.3 43
57 Jeunghun Wang 72.3 70
58 John Axelsen 72.5 28
59 Calum Hill 72.6 DNP
60 Haotong Li 72.8 52
61 Frederic LaCroix 73.1 10
62 Lukas Nemecz 73.2 72
63 Wil Besseling 73.2 DNP
64 Kristoffer Broberg 73.3 23
65 Louis de Jager 73.5 10
66 Nacho Elvira 73.7 50
67 Oliver Wilson 73.8 68
68 Daniel Hillier 73.9 DNP
69 Alexander Knappe 74.1 37
70 Sean Crocker 74.4 2
71 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 74.6 43
72 Renato Paratore 74.6 37
73 Soren Kjeldsen 74.9 4
74 Chase Hanna 75.0 52
75 Jonas Blixt 75.3 52
76 Oliver Hundebol Jorgensen 75.7 DNP
77 Freddy Schott 75.7 DNP
78 Robin Sciot-Siegrist 75.8 DNP
79 Mikael Lundberg 76.2 70
80 Alexander Levy 76.2 37
81 Stephen Gallacher 76.5 52
82 Jeremy Freiburghaus 77.5 62
83 Tobias Jonsson 77.9 47
84 Hugo Townsend 77.9 9
More | Less
June 12, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 60. The average is 162. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Power Rankings (June 4, 2023)

June 5, 2023 Thomas Hawley

Scottie Scheffler again has the highest rating number in the Hawley Ratings in 13 years.
# Thru June 4, 2023 Events Hawley Rating Last Week
1 Scottie Scheffler 53 2505 1
2 Patrick Cantlay 43 2315 2
3 Xander Schauffele 49 2115 3
4 Rory McIlroy 45 2089 4
5 Jon Rahm 46 2012 5
6 Viktor Hovland 54 1766 6
7 Tyrrell Hatton 54 1647 9
8 Max Homa 51 1623 8
9 Sungjae Im 57 1598 7
10 Jordan Spieth 48 1529 12
11 Cameron Smith 44 1510 11
12 Justin Thomas 46 1500 10
13 Matthew Fitzpatrick 52 1435 16
14 Will Zalatoris 40 1432 13
15 Sam Burns 54 1395 15
16 Tony Finau 54 1367 14
17 Dustin Johnson 39 1280 19
18 Jason Day 42 1261 17
19 Collin Morikawa 51 1259 18
20 Rickie Fowler 44 1255 25
21 Adam Scott 45 1247 27
22 Daniel Berger 21 1220 21
23 Cameron Young 48 1217 20
24 Shane Lowry 52 1211 26
25 Justin Rose 41 1205 23
26 Tommy Fleetwood 56 1202 24
27 Hideki Matsuyama 47 1183 28
28 Corey Conners 54 1173 22
29 Russell Henley 45 1159 31
30 Denny McCarthy 59 1148 36
31 Brooks Koepka 43 1109 30
32 Joaquin Niemann 50 1108 32
33 Sahith Theegala 59 1106 29
34 Keegan Bradley 54 1082 35
35 Talor Gooch 47 1076 34
36 Tom Kim 37 1059 33
37 Wyndham Clark 57 1045 41
38 Keith Mitchell 53 998 38
39 Si Woo Kim 60 989 52
40 Matt Kuchar 45 987 37
41 Seamus Power 54 987 40
42 Adam Hadwin 53 976 39
43 Mito Pereira 50 970 43
44 Patrick Reed 53 966 44
45 Harold Varner 46 951 45
46 Taylor Moore 51 946 46
47 Cameron Davis 52 944 42
48 Brian Harman 56 920 47
49 Taylor Montgomery 30 914 48
50 Tom Hoge 63 874 50
51 Chris Kirk 52 873 49
52 Kurt Kitayama 54 872 51
53 Bryson DeChambeau 36 829 54
54 Gary Woodland 48 826 58
55 Paul Casey 34 826 56
56 Aaron Wise 44 824 57
57 Andrew Putnam 60 819 70
58 Harris English 46 816 53
59 Billy Horschel 55 806 55
60 Cameron Tringale 48 777 60
61 Justin Suh 33 775 59
62 Sepp Straka 64 764 74
63 Charles Howell 33 761 62
64 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 58 759 63
65 KH Lee 58 742 61
66 Davis Riley 57 741 64
67 Nick Taylor 54 736 65
68 Emiliano Grillo 56 727 66
69 Kevin Na 41 725 67
70 JT Poston 56 724 72
71 Brendan Steele 45 724 73
72 Sergio Garcia 45 723 69
73 Abraham Ancer 48 719 71
74 Byeong Hun An 37 707 86
75 Pat Perez 40 706 75
76 Sebastian Munoz 49 703 76
77 Brendon Todd 52 701 68
78 Maverick McNealy 53 697 77
79 Beau Hossler 55 693 84
80 JJ Spaun 61 679 85
81 Ryan Fox 54 676 87
82 Louis Oosthuizen 39 673 79
83 Eric Cole 29 673 97
84 Min Woo Lee 51 672 80
85 Adam Schenk 64 667 105
86 Alex Noren 52 663 78
87 Adam Svensson 55 654 82
88 Jason Kokrak 44 649 89
89 Patrick Rodgers 61 649 95
90 Lucas Herbert 52 645 83
91 Ben Griffin 28 641 81
92 Matthew Wolff 39 634 93
93 Marc Leishman 47 633 94
94 Hayden Buckley 54 632 88
95 Matthew NeSmith 55 631 90
96 Scott Stallings 58 628 92
97 Taylor Pendrith 46 627 91
98 Anirban Lahiri 45 626 98
99 Mark Hubbard 56 607 104
100 Mac Hughes 53 605 96
101 Branden Grace 50 604 101
102 Thomas Detry 59 600 100
103 Alex Smalley 57 598 99
104 Peter Uihlein 37 598 102
105 Lee Hodges 57 595 118
106 Michael Kim 34 582 106
107 Aaron Rai 64 576 103
108 Stephan Jaeger 58 574 115
109 Sam Ryder 61 564 108
110 David Lipsky 56 559 129
111 Jhonattan Vegas 37 559 109
112 Robby Shelton 35 552 107
113 Bubba Watson 26 547 112
114 SH Kim 29 547 113
115 Kevin Kisner 49 544 111
116 Joel Dahmen 52 543 110
117 Thomas Pieters 45 533 116
118 Dean Burmester 52 530 117
119 Brandon Wu 52 526 114
120 Adrian Meronk 52 520 119
121 Victor Perez 47 518 120
122 Carlos Ortiz 43 517 121
123 Matt Jones 47 505 123
124 Kevin Yu 19 501 124
125 Richard Bland 49 498 126
126 Vincent Norrman 13 496 127
127 Harry Hall 30 495 128
128 Francesco Molinari 44 494 122
129 Kevin Streelman 55 487 125
130 Eugenio Chacarra 19 476 132
131 Chez Reavie 58 474 130
132 Ryan Palmer 47 471 133
133 Nate Lashley 50 470 134
134 Trey Mullinax 52 466 131
135 Erik van Rooyen 48 466 135
136 Luke List 55 463 161
137 Ian Poulter 50 460 137
138 Padraig Harrington 29 457 143
139 CT Pan 39 456 142
140 Webb Simpson 41 455 141
141 Danny Willett 53 452 138
142 Rasmus Hojgaard 48 448 136
143 Sam Horsfield 40 445 146
144 Phil Mickelson 32 442 145
145 John Huh 43 442 147
146 Lee Westwood 41 441 148
147 Lanto Griffin 39 438 139
148 Ben Taylor 35 436 140
149 Jimmy Walker 38 436 149
150 Nick Hardy 49 431 144
151 Charl Schwartzel 45 431 150
152 Joseph Bramlett 64 430 169
153 Andy Ogletree 9 427 152
154 Austin Eckroat 33 420 166
155 Carson Young 24 418 156
156 Patton Kizzire 56 418 154
157 Peter Malnati 59 418 153
158 Robert MacIntyre 52 416 157
159 David Lingmerth 46 413 151
160 Samuel Stevens 21 408 158
161 Henrik Stenson 41 407 159
162 Michael Thompson 47 407 160
163 Alexander Bjork 41 405 163
164 Troy Merritt 57 402 155
165 Jordan Smith 52 389 168
166 Doug Ghim 52 386 164
167 Davis Thompson 30 385 162
168 Aaron Baddeley 41 380 167
169 Dylan Frittelli 63 374 165
170 Garrick Higgo 59 367 181
171 Bernd Wiesberger 44 365 171
172 Danny Lee 46 363 172
173 Russell Knox 58 362 174
174 Sadom Kaewkanjana 21 361 173
175 Adam Long 59 355 170
176 Martin Laird 46 355 175
177 Ben Martin 49 352 177
178 Callum Tarren 51 351 176
179 Scott Vincent 31 349 178
180 Scott Piercy 58 340 183
181 Thorbjorn Olesen 46 337 179
182 Matt Wallace 61 335 185
183 Graeme McDowell 39 333 186
184 Pablo Larrazabal 43 333 187
185 Chad Ramey 55 330 182
186 Dylan Wu 51 329 188
187 Lucas Glover 53 329 184
188 Adrian Otaegui 57 328 191
189 Will Gordon 35 327 180
190 Tyler Duncan 56 324 193
191 Cameron Champ 44 322 194
192 Austin Smotherman 50 321 195
193 Paul Haley 24 321 198
194 Stewart Cink 50 320 189
195 Andrew Novak 48 318 197
196 Adri Arnaus 49 314 192
197 Zach Johnson 43 313 190
198 Chase Koepka 20 313 199
199 Cameron Percy 38 312 200
200 Zac Blair 16 311 201
201 Laurie Canter 47 309 202
202 Nicolai Hojgaard 53 308 196
203 Sean O’Hair 39 302 203
204 Chesson Hadley 57 297 204
205 Charley Hoffman 48 290 205
206 James Hahn 46 290 206
207 Romain Langasque 56 287 218
208 Greyson Sigg 58 286 209
209 Fabrizio Zanotti 41 284 211
210 Antoine Rozner 55 282 207
211 Matthias Schwab 57 282 212
212 Kramer Hickok 56 281 213
213 Doc Redman 52 280 216
214 Hudson Swafford 38 278 214
215 Yannik Paul 41 276 208
216 MJ Daffue 33 273 210
217 Erik Barnes 22 273 220
218 Julien Brun 38 270 221
219 Maximilian Kieffer 48 268 235
220 Vincent Whaley 45 268 215
221 Justin Harding 43 268 224
222 Justin Lower 52 267 219
223 Harry Higgs 58 266 222
224 Callum Shinkwin 44 266 226
225 Martin Kaymer 29 263 227
226 Jorge Campillo 61 263 223
227 Akshay Bhatia 24 261 217
228 Andrew Johnston 12 260 228
229 Matthieu Pavon 53 259 231
230 Grant Forrest 54 257 225
231 David Puig 13 256 230
232 Richard Mansell 43 252 232
233 Hennie du Plessis 34 246 234
234 Jason Scrivener 41 245 229
235 Thriston Lawrence 46 244 233
236 Marcel Schneider 43 239 238
237 Ryan Gerard 13 238 239
238 Takumi Kanaya 38 237 236
239 Ewen Ferguson 43 236 246
240 Scott Jamieson 49 234 243
241 Robert Streb 57 232 241
242 Nathan Kimsey 8 232 245
243 Ryan Armour 51 231 244
244 Christopher Gotterup 24 229 237
245 Brandt Snedeker 32 227 283
246 Ryan Moore 37 226 247
247 Luke Donald 50 225 271
248 Jamie Donaldson 43 224 242
249 Zecheng Dou 26 224 249
250 Marcus Armitage 53 223 255
251 Cody Gribble 16 221 254
252 Kevin Tway 61 221 250
253 Tyler McCumber 17 220 252
254 Harrison Endycott 25 219 253
255 Joost Luiten 45 219 260
256 Alejandro Tosti 14 218 240
257 Oliver Bekker 45 215 251
258 Satoshi Kodaira 50 214 259
259 Shubhankar Sharma 51 214 256
260 Guido Migliozzi 54 214 248
261 Phachara Khongwatmai 17 213 261
262 Richy Werenski 57 211 266
263 Rafa Cabrera Bello 54 210 258
264 Ashun Wu 44 210 263
265 Brice Garnett 56 209 267
266 Edoardo Molinari 52 207 264
267 Travis Smyth 16 206 270
268 Sang-hyun Park 13 206 274
269 Marcus Helligkilde 35 206 257
270 Sebastian Soderberg 50 206 272
271 Connor Syme 52 206 289
272 Matthew Jordan 56 205 282
273 Dale Whitnell 57 205 262
274 James Piot 23 204 277
275 Henrik Norlander 55 204 273
276 Martin Trainer 53 202 278
277 Richie Ramsay 50 202 279
278 Johannes Veerman 49 202 268
279 Matthias Schmid 54 201 269
280 Rory Sabbatini 42 200 281
281 Sami Valimaki 47 199 276
282 Pierceson Coody 19 198 265
283 Keita Nakajima 19 197 275
284 Matthew Southgate 55 196 284
285 Mikko Korhonen 41 194 287
286 Eddie Pepperell 48 193 285
287 Marcel Siem 49 193 319
288 Jayden Schaper 17 191 307
289 Ryo Hisatsune 35 191 286
290 Nico Echavarria 22 190 280
291 Kevin Chappell 36 190 291
292 Wade Ormsby 39 189 290
293 Tom McKibbin 22 188 357
294 Hurly Long 43 187 292
295 Julien Guerrier 53 185 328
296 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 19 184 318
297 Marcus Kinhult 44 183 298
298 Michael Gligic 57 183 299
299 Brian Stuard 62 182 295
300 Hank Lebioda 51 179 296
301 Aaron Cockerill 44 179 303
302 Clement Sordet 24 178 302
303 Jeunghun Wang 15 177 288
304 David Law 54 176 336
305 George Coetzee 44 176 314
306 Masahiro Kawamura 52 176 297
307 Austin Cook 58 175 308
308 Bi-o Kim 14 175 313
309 Steve Lewton 12 175 312
310 Jinichiro Kozuma 29 174 300
311 Chris Stroud 27 174 311
312 Niklas Norgaard Moller 40 173 309
313 Gavin Green 54 172 306
314 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 54 172 304
315 Brent Grant 28 171 317
316 William McGirt 36 170 305
317 Jazz Janewattananond 58 170 310
318 Dan Bradbury 16 169 294
319 Angel Hidalgo 37 168 322
320 Calum Hill 29 168 301
321 Alex Fitzpatrick 14 168 293
322 Andy Sullivan 53 168 320
323 Kalle Samooja 48 167 329
324 Turk Pettit 17 166 325
325 Paul Waring 41 166 348
326 Jeff Winther 45 164 326
327 Zander Lombard 58 164 321
328 Haotong Li 39 162 323
329 Simon Forsstrom 14 161 335
330 Jed Morgan 25 161 330
331 Tapio Pulkkanen 51 160 334
332 Ockie Strydom 18 159 316
333 Sung Kang 53 159 331
334 Seung-yul Noh 42 159 332
335 Matthew Baldwin 26 157 327
336 Tyson Alexander 26 157 333
337 Kelly Kraft 51 154 338
338 Kyong-jun Moon 9 152 339
339 Daniel Brown 14 152 324
340 Jonathan Byrd 39 151 341
341 David Micheluzzi 9 150 315
342 Daniel Gavins 53 148 344
343 Stephen Stallings 9 148 346
344 Keenan Davidse 10 146 350
345 Lukas Nemecz 40 145 342
346 Vaughn Taylor 32 145 351
347 Ryosuke Kinoshita 32 144 352
348 Joakim Lagergren 51 144 343
349 Alejandro Del Rey 17 143 347
350 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 39 143 345
351 Estanislao Goya 23 143 340
352 Cole Hammer 22 143 337
353 Max McGreevy 54 142 354
354 Carl Yuan 20 141 355
355 Francesco Laporta 49 141 375
356 Ross Fisher 52 140 349
357 Augusto Nunez 24 139 360
358 Daniel van Tonder 56 139 362
359 Brandon Matthews 26 138 361
360 John Catlin 54 138 353
361 Sihwan Kim 39 138 364
362 Ricardo Gouveia 34 138 397
363 Daniel Young 9 136 372
364 Tom Lewis 31 135 367
365 Espen Kofstad 30 135 365
366 Louis de Jager 43 135 359
367 Deon Germishuys 21 134 356
368 Nick Watney 55 133 366
369 Anthony Quayle 23 133 358
370 Lars van Meijel 19 133 369
371 Jens Dantorp 28 132 363
372 Bill Haas 51 131 371
373 Frederic LaCroix 31 129 436
374 Jeong Weon Ko 17 128 370
375 Jacques Kruyswijk 33 128 373
376 Justin Walters 53 128 377
377 Santiago Tarrio Ben 54 127 388
378 JC Ritchie 32 126 368
379 Shaun Norris 40 126 374
380 Mikumu Horikawa 26 125 381
381 Paul Barjon 43 122 378
382 James Morrison 55 122 384
383 Craig Howie 31 121 383
384 Kyle Westmoreland 26 121 387
385 Rikuya Hoshino 37 121 391
386 Wil Besseling 50 121 385
387 Joachim B Hansen 46 120 382
388 Berry Henson 19 120 386
389 Alexander Knappe 21 120 376
390 Kazuki Higa 37 120 380
391 Chase Seiffert 40 119 379
392 Ian Snyman 13 118 393
393 Adrien Saddier 26 117 424
394 Yuki Inamori 30 117 392
395 Trevor Werbylo 24 117 394
396 Filippo Celli 13 115 396
397 John Axelsen 15 115 501
398 David Dixon 10 113 402
399 Jaco Prinsloo 11 113 398
400 Daniel Hillier 23 112 390
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Power Ratings

May 29, 2023 Thomas Hawley ,

World no. 2 (per the Hawley Ratings) Patrick Cantlay slightly out-ranks world no. 1 Scottie Scheffler this week in the Memorial Tournament based on his outstanding record in the event over the past five years. Cantlay won the event in 2021 and 2019 and was in the top five last year and in 2018. He had mid-pack finishes in his two other appearances, 2020 and 2017. Cantlay also is a great fit for the course and comes in playing very well. Since his last missed cut (Phoenix in February), he’s been in the top 10 in five of nine appearances and no worse than 21st in the other four.

Which is not to say that there is anything wrong with Scheffler. He missed the playoff by one stroke in last weekend’s Schwab and has finished in the top five his last three times out. Since last November, he has two wins, 12 top-10s, and no finish worse than 12th in 15 events. His rating number of 2431 is the highest recorded in the Hawley Ratings in 13 years, since Tiger Woods in May, 2010. With this being a PGA Tour elevated event, the field is of course strong, including everyone from the top 10 excepr Max Homa.

Over the last eight years of this event, the stats most closely correlated with success are scrambling and shots gained in approach. Rory McIlroy is the best fit for the course in the field based on his statistical profile (top 5 percent in SG-approach), with Scheffler (top 5 percent in scrambling) slightly behind. Others who should like the course include (alphabetically) Cantlay, Tom Kim, Matt Kuchar, Collin Morikawa, and Jon Rahm. Players coming in with strong recent performance include Xander Schauffle, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton, and Michael Kim.

Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Patrick Cantlay -26.1 30
2 Scottie Scheffler -17.7 3
3 Xander Schauffele -9.5 24
4 Jon Rahm 1.5 16
5 Rory McIlroy 2.7 7
6 Tyrrell Hatton 12.8 12
7 Viktor Hovland 16.8 1
8 Sungjae Im 19.6 41
9 Justin Thomas 23.1 81
10 Jordan Spieth 24.9 5
11 Rickie Fowler 27.9 9
12 Corey Conners 28.1 98
13 Matthew Fitzpatrick 29.0 9
14 Sam Burns 30.6 16
15 Adam Scott 30.8 9
16 Jason Day 33.2 67
17 Collin Morikawa 33.4 WD
18 Russell Henley 33.6 16
19 Hideki Matsuyama 34.8 16
20 Shane Lowry 35.0 16
21 Cameron Davis 36.9 101
22 Wyndham Clark 37.4 12
23 Sahith Theegala 37.4 58
24 Tom Kim 37.5 108
25 Denny McCarthy 37.5 2
26 Cameron Young 37.8 76
27 Keegan Bradley 38.6 30
28 Matt Kuchar 40.2 62
29 Adam Hadwin 41.7 67
30 Seamus Power 42.9 41
31 Harris English 43.0 52
32 Keith Mitchell 43.6 48
33 Si Woo Kim 43.7 4
34 Brian Harman 43.8 89
35 Taylor Moore 44.0 DNP
36 Kurt Kitayama 44.1 112
37 Emiliano Grillo 46.1 48
38 Chris Kirk 47.1 67
39 Tom Hoge 48.0 65
40 Taylor Montgomery 48.2 41
41 Billy Horschel 48.4 114
42 KH Lee 48.5 89
43 Gary Woodland 48.6 24
44 Justin Suh 49.2 41
45 Sepp Straka 51.3 16
46 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 51.5 38
47 Michael Kim 51.6 DNP
48 Ryan Fox 51.7 30
49 Brendon Todd 52.5 WD
50 Alex Smalley 52.7 101
51 Byeong Hun An 53.2 24
52 Andrew Putnam 53.6 5
53 Adam Svensson 53.7 89
54 Mark Hubbard 53.8 30
55 Matthew NeSmith 53.8 76
56 Taylor Pendrith 54.3 60
57 Davis Riley 54.6 54
58 Thomas Detry 54.6 48
59 Beau Hossler 54.6 24
60 Patrick Rodgers 54.7 30
61 JT Poston 54.9 38
62 Eric Cole 54.9 24
63 Kevin Streelman 55.3 76
64 Hayden Buckley 55.4 116
65 Lucas Herbert 55.6 81
66 JJ Spaun 56.2 30
67 Alex Noren 56.2 52
68 Maverick McNealy 56.3 DNP
69 Stephan Jaeger 56.9 24
70 Ben Griffin 56.9 67
71 Mac Hughes 57.4 67
72 Adam Schenk 57.9 7
73 Scott Stallings 58.1 81
74 Brandon Wu 58.2 89
75 Aaron Rai 58.3 101
76 Robby Shelton 59.1 81
77 Joel Dahmen 59.4 67
78 Sam Ryder 60.3 56
79 Kevin Kisner 60.4 108
80 Nate Lashley 60.6 DNP
81 SH Kim 60.6 41
82 Francesco Molinari 60.6 112
83 Lee Hodges 61.1 12
84 Austin Eckroat 61.3 30
85 David Lipsky 61.9 12
86 Chez Reavie 61.9 58
87 Nick Hardy 62.0 76
88 Chad Ramey 62.1 117
89 Lanto Griffin 62.4 64
90 Joseph Bramlett 62.6 16
91 Ben Taylor 63.1 101
92 Trey Mullinax 63.3 67
93 Danny Willett 63.3 54
94 Sam Stevens 63.9 41
95 Troy Merritt 64.7 108
96 Peter Malnati 64.7 117
97 David Lingmerth 64.7 89
98 Luke List 64.9 16
99 Davis Thompson 66.1 56
100 Adam Long 66.4 98
101 Nicolai Hojgaard 66.5 98
102 Dylan Frittelli 66.7 WD
103 Callum Tarren 66.8 DNP
104 Will Gordon 67.0 76
105 Russell Knox 67.2 DNP
106 Ben Martin 67.3 DNP
107 Akshay Bhatia 67.6 89
108 Garrick Higgo 67.6 30
109 Lucas Glover 67.7 89
110 Matt Wallace 68.1 48
111 Stewart Cink 68.1 60
112 Zach Johnson 68.6 67
113 MJ Daffue 69.5 81
114 Thriston Lawrence 69.7 101
115 Justin Lower 69.9 89
116 Christopher Gotterup 70.0 81
117 Brandt Snedeker 71.4 41
118 Luke Donald 71.5 38
119 Nico Echavarria 71.6 81
120 David Micheluzzi 72.1 101
121 William McGirt 73.1 89
122 Kazuki Higa 74.0 67
123 Tyson Alexander 74.0 DNP
124 Bo Hoag 75.3 108
125 Jason Dufner 75.9 101
126 Sam Bennett 76.1 63
127 Aldrich Potgieter 77.9 81
128 KJ Choi 77.9 114
More | Less
June 5, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 243. The average is 162. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

A look at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday

May 29, 2023 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Patrick Cantlay 0.780
Jordan Spieth 0.669
Si Woo Kim 0.588
Xander Schauffele 0.573
Rory McIlroy 0.544
Billy Horschel 0.503
Kevin Streelman 0.493
Rickie Fowler 0.459

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Scottie Scheffler 1 2432.0
Patrick Cantlay 2 2353.2
Xander Schauffele 3 2125.8
Rory McIlroy 4 2008.0
Jon Rahm 5 1992.0
Viktor Hovland 6 1659.3
Sungjae Im 7 1626.5
Tyrrell Hatton 9 1599.2

Read more

Porsche European Open Power Ratings

May 29, 2023 Thomas Hawley ,

With Victor Perez, the question is whether to believe that last week’s 104th place finish in the KLM Open means something, or to forget it, possibly attributing it to fatigue due to his fourth trans-oceanic flight since February. Going with the bigger picture, he looms as the favorite this week in the Porsche European Open in Hamburg, Germany. The Frenchman, playing a mixture of PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, was 12th in the PGA Championship, ninth two weeks earlier in the Italian Open, mid-pack in two March events in the U.S., and in the top 20 three times, including one win (Abu Dhabi) in four winter DP World Tour events. Alexander Bjork also looks like a good choice, with back-to-back fourth-place finishes in Belgium and Italy earlier this month before last week’s 29th-place finish in the Netherlands. Rasmus Hojgaard was third last week in the Netherlands.


Victor Perez
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Victor Perez 55.9 DNP
2 Alexander Bjork 59.8 6
3 Rasmus Hojgaard 62.1 59
4 Jordan Smith 62.8 6
5 Robert MacIntyre 64.1 14
6 Edoardo Molinari 66.0 39
7 Pablo Larrazabal 66.1 DNP
8 Thorbjorn Olesen 66.3 44
9 Jorge Campillo 66.6 52
10 Scott Jamieson 66.7 29
11 Marcel Schneider 66.8 33
12 Romain Langasque 67.0 10
13 Grant Forrest 67.3 129
14 Antoine Rozner 67.5 52
15 Yannik Paul 67.5 66
16 Adri Arnaus 67.6 70
17 Maximilian Kieffer 68.1 2
18 Julien Brun 68.3 29
19 Matthieu Pavon 68.5 20
20 Matthew Southgate 68.9 59
21 Clement Sordet 69.1 39
22 Ewen Ferguson 69.1 14
23 Connor Syme 69.5 10
24 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 69.6 52
25 Jason Scrivener 70.0 WD
26 Guido Migliozzi 70.0 127
27 Joost Luiten 70.0 22
28 Marcus Armitage 70.1 22
29 Johannes Veerman 70.2 52
30 Jamie Donaldson 70.2 107
31 Ryo Hisatsune 70.2 85
32 Richard Mansell 70.3 29
33 Eddie Pepperell 70.6 77
34 Marcus Helligkilde 70.7 52
35 Rafa Cabrera Bello 70.7 44
36 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 71.0 94
37 Sami Valimaki 71.2 122
38 Kalle Samooja 71.2 22
39 Joakim Lagergren 71.3 WD
40 Matthew Jordan 71.3 22
41 Dale Whitnell 71.3 85
42 Marcel Siem 71.4 2
43 Tapio Pulkkanen 71.4 33
44 Matthias Schmid 71.5 136
45 Pierre Pineau 71.5 129
46 Justin Walters 71.5 39
47 Zander Lombard 71.6 71
48 Jeunghun Wang 71.6 143
49 Oliver Bekker 71.7 80
50 Dan Bradbury 71.7 WD
51 Alex Fitzpatrick 71.8 59
52 Masahiro Kawamura 71.8 143
53 Gavin Green 71.9 117
54 Julien Guerrier 71.9 2
55 Hurly Long 71.9 33
56 Jazz Janewattananond 72.1 107
57 Niklas Norgaard Moller 72.1 44
58 Deon Germishuys 72.1 66
59 Ockie Strydom 72.2 94
60 Daniel Brown 72.2 107
61 Calum Hill 72.5 78
62 Jeong Weon Ko 72.6 44
63 Rowin Caron 72.6 94
64 Haotong Li 72.6 143
65 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 72.7 22
66 Matthew Baldwin 72.7 52
67 Alejandro Del Rey 72.8 39
68 Andy Sullivan 72.8 39
69 Simon Forsstrom 72.8 33
70 David Horsey 73.0 85
71 Ross Fisher 73.1 107
72 John Catlin 73.1 143
73 Wil Besseling 73.1 DNP
74 Angel Hidalgo 73.2 33
75 Tom McKibbin 73.2 1
76 Paul Waring 73.4 10
77 Louis de Jager 73.4 107
78 David Law 73.4 6
79 David Ravetto 73.6 85
80 Lukas Nemecz 73.6 WD
81 JC Ritchie 73.6 107
82 Soren Kjeldsen 73.6 74
83 Renato Paratore 73.6 44
84 Jack Senior 73.7 85
85 Sean Crocker 73.7 79
86 Jens Dantorp 73.8 148
87 Francesco Laporta 73.8 14
88 Rikuya Hoshino 73.9 33
89 Andrew Wilson 73.9 52
90 Ricardo Gouveia 74.0 10
91 Wilco Nienaber 74.1 44
92 Alexander Knappe 74.1 94
93 Todd Clements 74.2 107
94 Daan Huizing 74.2 59
95 Nick Bachem 74.5 122
96 Oliver Wilson 74.5 85
97 Santiago Tarrio Ben 74.6 20
98 Daniel Hillier 74.6 129
99 Adrien Saddier 74.7 22
100 Ross McGowan 74.8 DNP
101 Frederic LaCroix 74.8 5
102 Yeongsu Kim 74.9 127
103 Thomas Aiken 74.9 107
104 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 74.9 85
105 Lucas Bjerregaard 75.1 74
106 Nacho Elvira 75.2 80
107 Darren Fichardt 75.2 DNP
108 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 75.3 44
109 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 75.3 59
110 Darius van Driel 75.6 85
111 Alexander Levy 75.8 122
112 Chase Hanna 75.8 80
113 Christoffer Bring 76.0 136
114 Max Schmitt 76.0 59
115 Martin Simonsen 76.0 94
116 Bryce Easton 76.1 14
117 Mikael Lundberg 76.1 107
118 Niklas Lemke 76.1 80
119 John Murphy 76.2 94
120 Marc Warren 76.3 136
121 John Axelsen 76.3 6
122 Ricardo Santos 76.3 85
123 Oliver Hundebol Jorgensen 76.4 122
124 Richard McEvoy 76.4 74
125 Aguri Iwasaki 76.5 107
126 Joshua Lee 76.6 72
127 Rhys Enoch 76.6 143
128 Garrick Porteous 76.7 117
129 Velten Meyer 76.7 94
130 Gunner Wiebe 76.8 117
131 Borja Virto Astudillo 76.8 DNP
132 John Parry 76.9 29
133 Emilio Cuartero Blanco 77.2 94
134 Jannik De Bruyn 77.3 72
135 Oscar Lengden 77.4 66
136 Pedro Figueiredo 77.4 14
137 Jeremy Freiburghaus 77.5 129
138 Manu Gandas 77.6 136
139 Christopher Mivis 77.6 94
140 David Howell 77.6 94
141 Max Rottluff 77.6 129
142 Joel Stalter 77.7 129
143 Sam Hutsby 77.7 117
144 Marc Hammer 77.8 69
145 Ugo Coussaud 77.8 65
146 Mateusz Gradecki 77.8 44
147 Jordan Gumberg 77.9 122
148 Kristoffer Reitan 77.9 94
149 Javier Sainz 77.9 DNP
150 Alfie Plant 77.9 DNP
151 Mutahi Kibugu 77.9 151
152 Tim Tillmanns 77.9 136
153 Tiger Christensen 77.9 136
154 Yannick Schutz 77.9 129
155 Anton Albers 77.9 80
156 Chengyao Ma 77.9 149
157 Tobias Eden 77.9 150
158 Tristen Strydom 78.1 136
159 Freddy Schott 78.1 14
160 Gary Stal 78.5 94
161 Blake Windred 78.5 94
162 Gumundur Kristjansson 78.5 117
Jayden Schaper late entry 28
More | Less
June 5, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 86. The average is 162. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Rankings (May 28, 2023)

May 29, 2023 Thomas Hawley

Scottie Scheffler has the highest rating number in the Hawley Ratings in 13 years.
# Thru May 28, 2023 Events Hawley Rating Last Week
1 Scottie Scheffler 52 2432 1
2 Patrick Cantlay 42 2353 2
3 Xander Schauffele 48 2126 3
4 Rory McIlroy 44 2008 4
5 Jon Rahm 45 1992 5
6 Viktor Hovland 53 1659 7
7 Sungjae Im 57 1627 6
8 Max Homa 51 1614 9
9 Tyrrell Hatton 54 1599 8
10 Justin Thomas 45 1555 10
11 Cameron Smith 44 1508 11
12 Jordan Spieth 47 1436 12
13 Will Zalatoris 40 1415 13
14 Tony Finau 54 1363 14
15 Sam Burns 53 1359 19
16 Matthew Fitzpatrick 52 1357 15
17 Jason Day 41 1308 18
18 Collin Morikawa 50 1303 17
19 Dustin Johnson 40 1278 16
20 Cameron Young 47 1253 20
21 Daniel Berger 21 1218 22
22 Corey Conners 53 1208 23
23 Justin Rose 41 1207 24
24 Tommy Fleetwood 57 1195 21
25 Rickie Fowler 43 1170 32
26 Shane Lowry 51 1162 25
27 Adam Scott 44 1158 26
28 Hideki Matsuyama 46 1133 29
29 Sahith Theegala 58 1129 27
30 Brooks Koepka 44 1107 30
31 Russell Henley 44 1106 35
32 Joaquin Niemann 50 1102 28
33 Tom Kim 36 1101 31
34 Talor Gooch 47 1079 33
35 Keegan Bradley 53 1076 34
36 Denny McCarthy 58 1042 36
37 Matt Kuchar 44 1017 37
38 Keith Mitchell 53 1014 38
39 Adam Hadwin 52 1009 40
40 Seamus Power 54 1000 39
41 Wyndham Clark 56 985 43
42 Cameron Davis 51 973 41
43 Mito Pereira 50 967 45
44 Patrick Reed 53 965 42
45 Harold Varner 47 946 50
46 Taylor Moore 51 946 44
47 Brian Harman 55 944 46
48 Taylor Montgomery 29 929 48
49 Chris Kirk 51 900 47
50 Tom Hoge 62 897 49
51 Kurt Kitayama 53 895 52
52 Si Woo Kim 59 894 51
53 Harris English 46 835 60
54 Bryson DeChambeau 36 831 56
55 Billy Horschel 54 827 53
56 Paul Casey 34 826 55
57 Aaron Wise 44 823 54
58 Gary Woodland 47 793 57
59 Justin Suh 32 782 70
60 Cameron Tringale 48 778 62
61 KH Lee 57 765 58
62 Charles Howell 33 758 59
63 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 57 758 68
64 Davis Riley 56 752 61
65 Nick Taylor 55 736 63
66 Emiliano Grillo 55 734 94
67 Kevin Na 41 727 74
68 Brendon Todd 51 724 66
69 Sergio Garcia 45 723 64
70 Andrew Putnam 60 720 73
71 Abraham Ancer 48 720 65
72 JT Poston 56 720 67
73 Brendan Steele 45 719 69
74 Sepp Straka 64 712 76
75 Pat Perez 41 708 72
76 Sebastian Munoz 49 701 86
77 Maverick McNealy 53 698 71
78 Alex Noren 52 677 85
79 Louis Oosthuizen 39 676 90
80 Min Woo Lee 51 673 81
81 Ben Griffin 27 672 75
82 Adam Svensson 54 672 83
83 Lucas Herbert 51 666 77
84 Beau Hossler 55 663 78
85 JJ Spaun 61 662 79
86 Byeong Hun An 37 657 99
87 Ryan Fox 54 655 98
88 Hayden Buckley 53 651 82
89 Jason Kokrak 44 649 80
90 Matthew NeSmith 55 647 91
91 Taylor Pendrith 45 644 93
92 Scott Stallings 58 644 87
93 Matthew Wolff 39 638 84
94 Marc Leishman 47 636 88
95 Patrick Rodgers 61 632 92
96 Mac Hughes 52 628 96
97 Eric Cole 28 627 89
98 Anirban Lahiri 46 621 95
99 Alex Smalley 56 618 97
100 Thomas Detry 58 606 104
101 Branden Grace 50 603 106
102 Peter Uihlein 38 595 101
103 Aaron Rai 64 591 112
104 Mark Hubbard 56 586 115
105 Adam Schenk 64 582 123
106 Michael Kim 35 577 139
107 Robby Shelton 35 575 110
108 Sam Ryder 61 574 100
109 Jhonattan Vegas 38 565 108
110 Joel Dahmen 51 563 102
111 Kevin Kisner 49 562 103
112 Bubba Watson 26 545 105
113 SH Kim 28 542 107
114 Brandon Wu 51 541 113
115 Stephan Jaeger 57 541 109
116 Thomas Pieters 45 532 111
117 Dean Burmester 52 527 116
118 Lee Hodges 56 522 118
119 Adrian Meronk 52 519 120
120 Victor Perez 47 518 114
121 Carlos Ortiz 43 516 124
122 Francesco Molinari 43 510 119
123 Matt Jones 47 504 121
124 Kevin Yu 19 502 122
125 Kevin Streelman 54 502 150
126 Richard Bland 49 497 125
127 Vincent Norrman 13 495 117
128 Harry Hall 30 493 176
129 David Lipsky 56 486 145
130 Chez Reavie 58 484 128
131 Trey Mullinax 51 480 130
132 Eugenio Chacarra 19 473 134
133 Ryan Palmer 47 469 127
134 Nate Lashley 50 469 129
135 Erik van Rooyen 49 467 126
136 Rasmus Hojgaard 47 463 143
137 Ian Poulter 51 461 133
138 Danny Willett 52 459 132
139 Lanto Griffin 38 459 137
140 Ben Taylor 35 457 131
141 Webb Simpson 41 456 136
142 CT Pan 40 455 138
143 Padraig Harrington 30 452 142
144 Nick Hardy 48 445 141
145 Phil Mickelson 32 442 135
146 Sam Horsfield 41 440 148
147 John Huh 44 439 147
148 Lee Westwood 41 439 140
149 Jimmy Walker 38 435 149
150 Charl Schwartzel 45 431 146
151 David Lingmerth 46 430 144
152 Andy Ogletree 9 428 208
153 Peter Malnati 58 428 155
154 Patton Kizzire 57 418 152
155 Troy Merritt 56 416 151
156 Carson Young 24 415 172
157 Robert MacIntyre 51 412 154
158 Samuel Stevens 21 407 156
159 Henrik Stenson 42 406 168
160 Michael Thompson 47 404 157
161 Luke List 55 402 153
162 Davis Thompson 30 397 159
163 Alexander Bjork 41 390 158
164 Doug Ghim 52 385 162
165 Dylan Frittelli 62 384 160
166 Austin Eckroat 32 382 195
167 Aaron Baddeley 42 378 186
168 Jordan Smith 51 374 161
169 Joseph Bramlett 64 371 163
170 Adam Long 58 365 164
171 Bernd Wiesberger 44 364 166
172 Danny Lee 47 364 165
173 Sadom Kaewkanjana 21 361 170
174 Russell Knox 59 360 167
175 Martin Laird 47 355 173
176 Callum Tarren 51 351 169
177 Ben Martin 50 351 171
178 Scott Vincent 31 347 185
179 Thorbjorn Olesen 45 345 177
180 Will Gordon 35 343 174
181 Garrick Higgo 59 342 175
182 Chad Ramey 54 340 213
183 Scott Piercy 59 340 181
184 Lucas Glover 53 338 182
185 Matt Wallace 60 334 178
186 Graeme McDowell 39 332 192
187 Pablo Larrazabal 43 331 197
188 Dylan Wu 51 331 179
189 Stewart Cink 49 328 189
190 Zach Johnson 42 326 180
191 Adrian Otaegui 58 326 196
192 Adri Arnaus 49 324 190
193 Tyler Duncan 57 323 187
194 Cameron Champ 44 322 184
195 Austin Smotherman 50 319 212
196 Nicolai Hojgaard 53 319 191
197 Andrew Novak 48 319 193
198 Paul Haley 24 317 353
199 Chase Koepka 20 312 188
200 Cameron Percy 39 310 194
201 Zac Blair 16 309 183
202 Laurie Canter 47 307 201
203 Sean O’Hair 40 302 198
204 Chesson Hadley 58 298 200
205 Charley Hoffman 48 293 203
206 James Hahn 47 289 206
207 Antoine Rozner 54 288 205
208 Yannik Paul 40 287 209
209 Greyson Sigg 58 286 202
210 MJ Daffue 32 284 199
211 Fabrizio Zanotti 41 283 211
212 Matthias Schwab 57 283 204
213 Kramer Hickok 57 282 234
214 Hudson Swafford 39 281 210
215 Vincent Whaley 45 280 215
216 Doc Redman 53 279 217
217 Akshay Bhatia 23 276 207
218 Romain Langasque 55 275 222
219 Justin Lower 51 274 216
220 Erik Barnes 22 274 219
221 Julien Brun 37 272 220
222 Harry Higgs 58 269 214
223 Jorge Campillo 60 269 221
224 Justin Harding 43 266 223
225 Grant Forrest 53 266 230
226 Callum Shinkwin 44 265 218
227 Martin Kaymer 29 262 231
228 Andrew Johnston 12 260 224
229 Jason Scrivener 41 256 229
230 David Puig 13 255 293
231 Matthieu Pavon 52 254 227
232 Richard Mansell 42 252 225
233 Thriston Lawrence 45 251 232
234 Hennie du Plessis 34 245 236
235 Maximilian Kieffer 47 245 239
236 Takumi Kanaya 37 244 237
237 Christopher Gotterup 23 242 228
238 Marcel Schneider 42 240 235
239 Ryan Gerard 13 239 226
240 Alejandro Tosti 13 236 233
241 Robert Streb 57 234 241
242 Jamie Donaldson 43 234 243
243 Scott Jamieson 48 233 238
244 Ryan Armour 52 232 245
245 Nathan Kimsey 8 231 247
246 Ewen Ferguson 42 226 267
247 Ryan Moore 37 226 251
248 Guido Migliozzi 53 223 244
249 Zecheng Dou 26 222 242
250 Kevin Tway 62 222 248
251 Oliver Bekker 44 222 249
252 Tyler McCumber 18 221 253
253 Harrison Endycott 25 220 246
254 Cody Gribble 16 218 240
255 Marcus Armitage 52 218 256
256 Shubhankar Sharma 52 216 271
257 Marcus Helligkilde 34 214 252
258 Rafa Cabrera Bello 54 214 261
259 Satoshi Kodaira 51 214 263
260 Joost Luiten 45 212 277
261 Phachara Khongwatmai 17 212 266
262 Dale Whitnell 57 210 257
263 Ashun Wu 45 210 255
264 Edoardo Molinari 51 210 258
265 Pierceson Coody 18 210 250
266 Richy Werenski 58 209 259
267 Brice Garnett 57 209 268
268 Johannes Veerman 48 209 254
269 Matthias Schmid 53 208 281
270 Travis Smyth 16 207 270
271 Luke Donald 50 207 285
272 Sebastian Soderberg 51 206 265
273 Henrik Norlander 56 206 260
274 Sang-hyun Park 13 206 273
275 Keita Nakajima 18 206 279
276 Sami Valimaki 47 206 264
277 James Piot 23 204 272
278 Martin Trainer 54 203 282
279 Richie Ramsay 51 202 276
280 Nico Echavarria 21 202 280
281 Rory Sabbatini 43 201 262
282 Matthew Jordan 56 201 290
283 Brandt Snedeker 32 201 283
284 Matthew Southgate 55 201 284
285 Eddie Pepperell 47 200 275
286 Ryo Hisatsune 34 199 278
287 Mikko Korhonen 41 193 289
288 Jeunghun Wang 14 191 269
289 Connor Syme 51 190 286
290 Wade Ormsby 39 190 292
291 Kevin Chappell 37 190 294
292 Hurly Long 42 187 296
293 Alex Fitzpatrick 13 185 274
294 Dan Bradbury 15 183 305
295 Brian Stuard 63 183 300
296 Hank Lebioda 52 182 291
297 Masahiro Kawamura 52 182 295
298 Marcus Kinhult 44 182 304
299 Michael Gligic 58 182 302
300 Jinichiro Kozuma 28 181 303
301 Calum Hill 28 181 288
302 Clement Sordet 23 180 297
303 Aaron Cockerill 45 179 306
304 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 54 178 335
305 William McGirt 36 178 310
306 Gavin Green 54 177 334
307 Jayden Schaper 16 177 287
308 Austin Cook 59 176 307
309 Niklas Norgaard Moller 39 176 322
310 Jazz Janewattananond 57 176 321
311 Chris Stroud 27 175 308
312 Steve Lewton 12 175 316
313 Bi-o Kim 14 175 311
314 George Coetzee 44 175 315
315 David Micheluzzi 8 174 313
316 Ockie Strydom 17 173 298
317 Brent Grant 28 172 318
318 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 18 171 299
319 Marcel Siem 48 170 309
320 Andy Sullivan 52 170 319
321 Zander Lombard 58 168 324
322 Angel Hidalgo 36 168 312
323 Haotong Li 38 168 314
324 Daniel Brown 13 166 301
325 Turk Pettit 17 165 327
326 Jeff Winther 45 164 326
327 Matthew Baldwin 25 163 345
328 Julien Guerrier 52 161 332
329 Kalle Samooja 48 160 337
330 Jed Morgan 25 160 325
331 Sung Kang 53 159 331
332 Seung-yul Noh 42 159 333
333 Tyson Alexander 26 159 320
334 Tapio Pulkkanen 50 159 328
335 Simon Forsstrom 13 158 317
336 David Law 53 157 329
337 Cole Hammer 22 155 323
338 Kelly Kraft 51 153 340
339 Kyong-jun Moon 9 153 339
340 Estanislao Goya 22 152 330
341 Jonathan Byrd 40 151 342
342 Lukas Nemecz 39 150 336
343 Joakim Lagergren 51 150 338
344 Daniel Gavins 53 148 344
345 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 38 147 377
346 Stephen Stallings 9 146 354
347 Alejandro Del Rey 16 145 348
348 Paul Waring 40 145 341
349 Ross Fisher 51 145 343
350 Keenan Davidse 10 144 351
351 Vaughn Taylor 33 144 350
352 Ryosuke Kinoshita 32 143 357
353 John Catlin 53 143 346
354 Max McGreevy 54 142 355
355 Carl Yuan 20 142 356
356 Deon Germishuys 20 142 434
357 Tom McKibbin 21 141 375
358 Anthony Quayle 22 141 360
359 Louis de Jager 42 139 365
360 Augusto Nunez 24 139 347
361 Brandon Matthews 26 139 362
362 Daniel van Tonder 56 139 352
363 Jens Dantorp 27 138 349
364 Sihwan Kim 40 137 359
365 Espen Kofstad 30 135 366
366 Nick Watney 56 135 364
367 Tom Lewis 32 134 367
368 JC Ritchie 31 133 361
369 Lars van Meijel 19 131 472
370 Jeong Weon Ko 16 131 358
371 Bill Haas 52 131 368
372 Daniel Young 9 130 378
373 Jacques Kruyswijk 34 129 371
374 Shaun Norris 39 128 372
375 Francesco Laporta 49 128 370
376 Alexander Knappe 20 127 363
377 Justin Walters 53 127 374
378 Paul Barjon 42 127 369
379 Chase Seiffert 40 125 384
380 Kazuki Higa 36 125 379
381 Mikumu Horikawa 26 124 381
382 Joachim B Hansen 47 122 383
383 Craig Howie 31 121 386
384 James Morrison 56 121 387
385 Wil Besseling 51 121 376
386 Berry Henson 19 120 389
387 Kyle Westmoreland 25 120 373
388 Santiago Tarrio Ben 53 120 385
389 David Ravetto 16 119 439
390 Daniel Hillier 22 119 479
391 Rikuya Hoshino 36 118 382
392 Yuki Inamori 29 118 393
393 Ian Snyman 13 118 392
394 Trevor Werbylo 24 116 394
395 Patrick Flavin 21 116 380
396 Filippo Celli 13 114 538
397 Ricardo Gouveia 33 114 388
398 Jaco Prinsloo 11 113 398
399 Wilco Nienaber 43 113 391
400 Jack Senior 42 113 399
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Charles Schwab Challenge Power Ratings

May 22, 2023 Thomas Hawley ,

Scottie Scheffler is back in the neighborhood and presumably in his own bed this week as the PGA Tour returns to the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Scheffler, also back in a familiar spot as no. 1-ranked player in the world, is a Dallas resident, from just east of the Colonial locale in Ft. Worth, and a product of the University od Texas, 200 miles farther south. Scheffler has been almost like a machine in grinding out top-10 finishes over the last six months, although undoubtedly he’d like to improve his percentage of wins. After his second-place tie in last week’s PGA Championship, Scheffler has appeared 14 times since November and his worst finish in the span is 12th in the Genesis. He has 11 top-10 finishes in that span with two wins, TPC and at Phoenix.

Jordan Spieth, who appears to be healthy again after sneaking in to the top 30 at the PGA with a final-round 69, and trouper Sungjae Im, who easily leads the world top 20 in appearances over the past two years, look like good alternative choices. Spieth has been in the top 10 at Colonial in seven of the past eight years, including the 2016 win. The bottom fell out for Im last week as he shot 80-73 to miss the cut by eight strokes. In the last two dozen or so events, he has only one other finish like that (110th at the this year’s Sony) and he has five top-10 finishes on Tour this year.

Collin Morikawa is on top of the list of players who appear to be the best fits for the Colonial course. Driving accuracy and shots gained putting have been the stats most heavily correlated with success in this event over the past eight years, with Morikawa in the top 5 percent in accuracy but below the midpoint in shots gained putting. Other good fits for Colonial would appear to be, in order, Max Homa, Brendon Todd, Tom Hoge, Scheffler, and Tony Finau. Guys who are playing really well but ranked a bit behind the top players include Tommy Fleetwood, Emiliano Grillo, and Cameron Davis. Fleetwood has three straight finishes in the top 20, includingt fifth at the Wells Fargo. Grillo’s missed cut at the PGA ended a string of three straight in the top 20, including fifth in Mexico and seventh in the Heritage. Davis was fourth in the PGA, his third top-10 since March.

Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Scottie Scheffler -14.9 3
2 Jordan Spieth 6.7 93
3 Sungjae Im 7.5 73
4 Viktor Hovland 13.8 16
5 Tony Finau 14.6 73
6 Max Homa 23.0 9
7 Tommy Fleetwood 25.6 73
8 Collin Morikawa 27.9 29
9 Justin Rose 29.3 12
10 Sam Burns 31.1 6
11 Rickie Fowler 32.9 6
12 Russell Henley 34.4 16
13 Denny McCarthy 34.7 73
14 Cameron Davis 35.4 73
15 Taylor Moore 37.5 93
16 Brian Harman 42.8 29
17 Chris Kirk 42.8 99
18 Keith Mitchell 43.9 DNP
19 Si Woo Kim 44.9 29
20 Brendon Todd 45.7 57
21 Kurt Kitayama 45.8 29
22 Emiliano Grillo 46.5 1
23 KH Lee 46.8 57
24 Tom Hoge 47.2 52
25 Taylor Montgomery 47.8 DNP
26 Nick Taylor 47.9 93
27 Harris English 48.3 12
28 Billy Horschel 48.6 40
29 Matthew NeSmith 49.5 48
30 Hayden Buckley 49.9 83
31 Patrick Rodgers 49.9 57
32 Beau Hossler 50.0 70
33 Eric Cole 50.5 83
34 Andrew Putnam 51.1 29
35 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 51.6 21
36 Davis Riley 51.7 83
37 Lucas Herbert 52.3 83
38 Sepp Straka 52.4 29
39 JT Poston 52.8 104
40 Alex Smalley 53.3 40
41 Adam Svensson 53.3 DNP
42 Justin Suh 53.4 16
43 Maverick McNealy 54.1 52
44 Byeong Hun An 54.4 21
45 Min Woo Lee 54.8 40
46 Stephan Jaeger 54.9 68
47 JJ Spaun 55.3 63
48 Ryan Fox 55.3 21
49 Ben Griffin 56.0 52
50 Vincent Norrman 56.2 48
51 Thomas Detry 56.7 21
52 Alex Noren 56.8 29
53 Scott Stallings 56.9 99
54 Nate Lashley 57.6 73
55 SH Kim 57.8 109
56 Mark Hubbard 58.1 9
57 Joel Dahmen 58.2 68
58 Kevin Kisner 58.6 109
59 Sam Ryder 59.2 93
60 Chez Reavie 59.4 40
61 Ryan Palmer 59.7 73
62 Aaron Rai 60.2 12
63 Michael Kim 60.4 6
64 CT Pan 60.4 DNP
65 Robby Shelton 60.5 29
66 Jimmy Walker 60.9 40
67 Carson Young 61.1 21
68 Kevin Streelman 61.2 9
69 Adam Schenk 61.3 2
70 Lee Hodges 62.0 29
71 Joseph Bramlett 62.0 83
72 Nick Hardy 62.1 48
73 Ben Taylor 62.1 83
74 Adam Long 62.4 73
75 Erik van Rooyen 62.4 112
76 Russell Knox 63.0 72
77 Danny Willett 63.0 93
78 Charley Hoffman 63.4 DNP
79 David Lipsky 63.5 16
80 Troy Merritt 63.6 83
81 David Lingmerth 63.8 116
82 Dylan Wu 64.2 99
83 Patton Kizzire 64.3 48
84 Luke List 64.7 57
85 Peter Malnati 64.7 29
86 Zach Johnson 65.5 116
87 Zac Blair 65.8 116
88 Scott Piercy 66.0 40
89 Dylan Frittelli 66.1 73
90 Ben Martin 66.2 57
91 Callum Tarren 66.3 109
92 Garrick Higgo 66.4 112
93 Harry Hall 66.5 3
94 Aaron Baddeley 66.5 21
95 Chad Ramey 66.6 12
96 Cameron Champ 66.6 63
97 Sean O’Hair 66.7 DNP
98 Will Gordon 66.8 52
99 Austin Eckroat 66.8 16
100 Andrew Novak 66.9 40
101 Rory Sabbatini 67.0 112
102 Akshay Bhatia 67.3 56
103 Matt Wallace 67.4 83
104 Tyler Duncan 67.6 104
105 Matthias Schwab 68.2 70
106 Greyson Sigg 68.5 104
107 Cameron Percy 68.5 DNP
108 Austin Smotherman 68.6 21
109 MJ Daffue 68.7 99
110 Harry Higgs 68.9 119
111 Justin Lower 69.4 57
112 Zecheng Dou 69.6 63
113 Richy Werenski 70.2 104
114 Henrik Norlander 70.2 112
115 Kramer Hickok 70.2 21
116 Kevin Tway 70.3 104
117 Pierceson Coody 70.6 83
118 Ryan Armour 70.6 DNP
119 Cody Gribble 70.8 63
120 Harrison Endycott 70.9 99
121 Luke Donald 72.0 40
122 Cole Hammer 72.6 93
123 Tyson Alexander 73.3 73
124 Paul Haley 73.4 5
125 Kyle Westmoreland 74.8 83
126 Erik Compton 76.8 63
127 Sam Stevens 76.8 29
128 Parker Coody 77.2 DNP
Michael Block late entry 120
More | Less
May 29, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 168. The average is 162. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

A look at the Charles Schwab Challenge

May 22, 2023 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Jordan Spieth 0.882
Tony Finau 0.688
Brian Harman 0.579
Emiliano Grillo 0.450
Justin Rose 0.424
Charley Hoffman 0.421
Collin Morikawa 0.408
Rory Sabbatini 0.408

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Scottie Scheffler 1 2387.6
Sungjae Im 6 1669.8
Viktor Hovland 7 1642.7
Max Homa 9 1573.6
Jordan Spieth 12 1483.9
Tony Finau 14 1403.1
Collin Morikawa 17 1319.3
Sam Burns 19 1304.0

Read more

LIV Golf Invitational D.C. Power Ratings

May 22, 2023 Thomas Hawley

Brooks Koepka wasn’t the only one to put some polish on the LIV brand in last week’s PGA Championship (which was hosted by the PGA of America, as opposed to the PGA Tour). LIV players Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Smith also finished in the top 10, and Patrick Reed and Mito Pereira were in the top 20. It is a fairly quick hop for them and 11 other LIV Golf League players to the Washington D.C. area for this week’s event at Trump National Golf Club in Potomac Falls VA. Cameron Smith comes in with a streak of four straight top-10s based on being ninth at the PGA and having a second, third, and sixth in the three prior LIV events.


Cameron Smith
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Cameron Smith 18.8 9
2 Dustin Johnson 30.6 23
3 Brooks Koepka 31.8 12
4 Talor Gooch 37.5 15
5 Joaquin Niemann 37.5 31
6 Patrick Reed 38.6 35
7 Harold Varner 41.6 1
8 Mito Pereira 41.9 3
9 Bryson DeChambeau 44.0 9
10 Cameron Tringale 48.0 9
11 Charles Howell 48.6 31
12 Sergio Garcia 49.9 31
13 Paul Casey 49.9 DNP
14 Jason Kokrak 51.3 WD
15 Pat Perez 51.9 18
16 Abraham Ancer 51.9 42
17 Brendan Steele 52.1 23
18 Kevin Na 53.0 6
19 Anirban Lahiri 53.3 29
20 Sebastian Munoz 53.5 4
21 Louis Oosthuizen 53.7 6
22 Peter Uihlein 53.9 15
23 Marc Leishman 54.3 35
24 Matthew Wolff 54.3 WD
25 Bubba Watson 55.8 40
26 Thomas Pieters 57.1 WD
27 Branden Grace 57.1 2
28 Dean Burmester 57.4 15
29 Carlos Ortiz 59.2 12
30 Richard Bland 59.6 23
31 Eugenio Chacarra 60.0 18
32 Phil Mickelson 60.3 44
33 Matt Jones 60.5 23
34 Ian Poulter 61.0 23
35 Charl Schwartzel 61.8 29
36 Lee Westwood 62.2 35
37 Henrik Stenson 62.5 4
38 Scott Vincent 63.9 18
39 Danny Lee 64.2 35
40 Bernd Wiesberger 64.6 31
41 Chase Koepka 66.0 42
42 Laurie Canter 66.1 18
43 Graeme McDowell 66.8 18
44 Martin Kaymer 69.3 23
45 James Piot 70.5 35
46 David Puig 70.8 12
47 Jed Morgan 71.3 41
48 Sihwan Kim 73.0 45
Andy Ogletree late entry 8
More | Less
May 29, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 129. The average is 162. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

KLM Open Power Ratings

May 22, 2023 Thomas Hawley ,

Victor Perez is the obvious choice this week in the KLM Open at Bernardus Golf in Cromvoirt, Netherlands. Perez has been back and forth across the Atlantic four times this year, playing a mixture of PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. He was 12th last week in the PGA Championship, ninth two weeks earlier in the Italian Open, mid-pack in two March events in the U.S., and in the top 20 three times, including one win (Abu Dhabi) in four winter DP World Tour events. He’s the defending champ. Second pick Adrian Meronk, who also has had numerous flights over water this year, won the Italian event and is only a few slots behind Perez in the Hawley Ratings, 114th vs. 120th.

Greens in regulation and driving distance are the top two stats in terms of correlation with success in the two prior instances of this event at Bernardus.


Victor Perez
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Victor Perez 54.8 104
2 Adrian Meronk 59.3 5
3 Jordan Smith 60.9 124
4 Alexander Bjork 62.6 29
5 Jorge Campillo 62.7 29
6 Romain Langasque 63.0 16
7 Maximilian Kieffer 63.0 21
8 Antoine Rozner 63.4 29
9 Rasmus Hojgaard 63.5 3
10 Richard Mansell 63.6 146
11 Eddie Pepperell 66.0 115
12 Callum Shinkwin 66.7 146
13 Adrian Otaegui 67.0 2
14 Shubhankar Sharma 67.1 16
15 Pablo Larrazabal 67.3 1
16 Ashun Wu 68.0 104
17 Grant Forrest 68.2 8
18 Edoardo Molinari 68.3 48
19 Jeunghun Wang 68.5 90
20 Julien Brun 68.6 29
21 Richie Ramsay 68.7 39
22 Adri Arnaus 68.7 DNP
23 Scott Jamieson 68.8 82
24 Joost Luiten 68.9 21
25 Matthieu Pavon 69.1 39
26 Sebastian Soderberg 69.3 48
27 Marcus Helligkilde 69.5 60
28 Jazz Janewattananond 69.6 21
29 Marcel Schneider 69.7 48
30 Guido Migliozzi 69.7 151
31 Johannes Veerman 69.7 76
32 Ryo Hisatsune 70.1 55
33 Jayden Schaper 70.2 67
34 Ewen Ferguson 70.2 8
35 Marcus Armitage 70.2 29
36 David Law 70.2 67
37 Haotong Li 70.3 124
38 Sami Valimaki 70.3 90
39 Clement Sordet 70.4 48
40 Julien Guerrier 70.6 39
41 Oliver Bekker 70.6 124
42 Pierre Pineau 70.8 DNP
43 Alex Fitzpatrick 70.8 90
44 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 70.9 67
45 Kristoffer Broberg 71.1 115
46 Calum Hill 71.2 104
47 Matthew Jordan 71.3 16
48 Daniel Brown 71.3 80
49 Simon Forsstrom 71.5 70
50 Dan Bradbury 71.5 29
51 Marcus Kinhult 71.5 29
52 Masahiro Kawamura 71.6 124
53 Gavin Green 71.6 8
54 Ockie Strydom 71.7 104
55 Dale Whitnell 71.8 81
56 Hurly Long 71.9 39
57 Connor Syme 72.0 48
58 Angel Hidalgo 72.1 154
59 Niklas Norgaard Moller 72.1 21
60 Daniel van Tonder 72.1 146
61 Kalle Samooja 72.1 29
62 Marcel Siem 72.2 60
63 Matthias Schmid 72.3 21
64 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 72.4 12
65 Tapio Pulkkanen 72.4 60
66 Joakim Lagergren 72.5 82
67 Lukas Nemecz 72.6 134
68 Matthew Baldwin 72.6 21
69 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 72.7 5
70 Jens Dantorp 72.7 144
71 Jack Senior 72.8 DNP
72 Andy Sullivan 72.9 39
73 Daniel Gavins 72.9 DNP
74 Ross Fisher 73.0 70
75 Wil Besseling 73.0 124
76 Alejandro Del Rey 73.0 39
77 Jeong Weon Ko 73.1 82
78 Paul Waring 73.2 82
79 Brandon Stone 73.2 90
80 Soren Kjeldsen 73.2 90
81 Ricardo Gouveia 73.3 146
82 David Horsey 73.3 151
83 JC Ritchie 73.4 90
84 John Catlin 73.5 90
85 Alexander Knappe 73.6 144
86 Rikuya Hoshino 73.6 55
87 Santiago Tarrio Ben 73.6 90
88 Wilco Nienaber 73.6 139
89 Louis de Jager 73.7 29
90 James Morrison 73.7 39
91 Andrew Wilson 73.7 90
92 Tom McKibbin 74.0 21
93 Ding Wenyi 74.1 70
94 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 74.1 60
95 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 74.3 90
96 Sean Crocker 74.4 48
97 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 74.5 104
98 Nick Bachem 74.5 139
99 Victor Dubuisson 74.5 DNP
100 Darius van Driel 74.5 82
101 Lars van Meijel 74.6 16
102 Yeongsu Kim 74.6 134
103 Frederic LaCroix 74.7 134
104 Thomas Aiken 74.7 82
105 Renato Paratore 74.8 39
106 Deon Germishuys 74.8 3
107 David Ravetto 74.9 16
108 Bryce Easton 75.0 115
109 Nacho Elvira 75.1 82
110 Daan Huizing 75.3 29
111 Adrien Saddier 75.4 124
112 Oliver Wilson 75.7 60
113 Robin Sciot-Siegrist 75.7 115
114 Christoffer Bring 75.8 134
115 Martin Simonsen 75.9 90
116 Niklas Lemke 76.0 124
117 John Murphy 76.1 90
118 Marc Warren 76.2 70
119 Oliver Hundebol Jorgensen 76.2 104
120 Ricardo Santos 76.3 60
121 Filippo Celli 76.3 12
122 Pedro Figueiredo 76.3 139
123 Daniel Hillier 76.3 5
124 Aguri Iwasaki 76.4 90
125 Stephen Gallacher 76.4 139
126 Todd Clements 76.5 21
127 Max Schmitt 76.5 39
128 Manu Gandas 76.5 124
129 Garrick Porteous 76.6 115
130 Joshua Lee 76.6 55
131 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 76.7 77
132 Rowin Caron 76.7 8
133 Gunner Wiebe 76.7 139
134 Joel Stalter 76.7 48
135 Alexander Levy 76.7 124
136 John Parry 76.8 77
137 Sven Maurits 77.1 115
138 Tristen Strydom 77.1 115
139 Emilio Cuartero Blanco 77.2 DNP
140 John Axelsen 77.2 12
141 Freddy Schott 77.4 55
142 Gary Stal 77.5 104
143 Gumundur Kristjansson 77.5 124
144 Toby Tree 77.6 DNP
145 David Howell 77.6 104
146 Mikael Lundberg 77.8 12
147 Mike Toorop 77.9 104
148 Dario Antonisse 77.9 151
149 Jerry Ji 77.9 82
150 Jack Ingham 77.9 115
151 Lars Van Der Vight 77.9 55
152 Denny Kloeth 77.9 150
153 Vince van Veen 77.9 70
154 Davey Porsius 77.9 115
155 Chengyao Ma 77.9 70
156 Tobias Eden 77.9 134
157 Mateusz Gradecki 77.9 60
158 Nicolas Colsaerts 77.9 104
159 Jeremy Freiburghaus 78.5 79
160 Blake Windred 78.8 154
161 Sam Hutsby 79.0 90
Oihan Guillamoundeguy late entry 105
More | Less
May 29, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 77. The average is 162. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Rankings (May 21, 2023)

May 22, 2023 Thomas Hawley

Scottie Scheffler has swapped places with Patrick Cantlay for the third time in two months.
# Thru May 21, 2023 Events Hawley Rating Last Week
1 Scottie Scheffler 52 2388 2
2 Patrick Cantlay 43 2353 1
3 Xander Schauffele 49 2116 3
4 Rory McIlroy 45 2000 5
5 Jon Rahm 46 1990 4
6 Sungjae Im 57 1670 6
7 Viktor Hovland 53 1643 10
8 Tyrrell Hatton 54 1591 9
9 Max Homa 51 1574 7
10 Justin Thomas 46 1550 8
11 Cameron Smith 44 1518 13
12 Jordan Spieth 47 1484 11
13 Will Zalatoris 40 1405 14
14 Tony Finau 54 1403 12
15 Matthew Fitzpatrick 53 1349 15
16 Dustin Johnson 39 1320 16
17 Collin Morikawa 50 1319 19
18 Jason Day 41 1308 17
19 Sam Burns 53 1304 18
20 Cameron Young 47 1249 20
21 Tommy Fleetwood 56 1227 22
22 Daniel Berger 21 1216 21
23 Corey Conners 54 1203 29
24 Justin Rose 40 1157 38
25 Shane Lowry 52 1156 32
26 Adam Scott 45 1155 27
27 Sahith Theegala 59 1128 28
28 Joaquin Niemann 50 1127 23
29 Hideki Matsuyama 47 1126 31
30 Brooks Koepka 43 1112 47
31 Tom Kim 36 1099 25
32 Rickie Fowler 43 1097 24
33 Talor Gooch 47 1095 26
34 Keegan Bradley 54 1072 33
35 Russell Henley 44 1070 30
36 Denny McCarthy 58 1068 34
37 Matt Kuchar 45 1013 35
38 Keith Mitchell 53 1012 36
39 Seamus Power 54 1001 37
40 Adam Hadwin 53 1000 40
41 Cameron Davis 51 999 53
42 Patrick Reed 53 992 45
43 Wyndham Clark 57 980 39
44 Taylor Moore 50 976 41
45 Mito Pereira 49 945 50
46 Brian Harman 54 941 43
47 Chris Kirk 51 928 48
48 Taylor Montgomery 29 928 42
49 Tom Hoge 62 914 44
50 Harold Varner 47 911 49
51 Si Woo Kim 59 892 46
52 Kurt Kitayama 53 888 68
53 Billy Horschel 54 833 52
54 Aaron Wise 45 826 51
55 Paul Casey 35 823 54
56 Bryson DeChambeau 36 821 97
57 Gary Woodland 48 790 55
58 KH Lee 57 783 63
59 Charles Howell 33 783 58
60 Harris English 45 782 56
61 Davis Riley 55 770 57
62 Cameron Tringale 48 767 62
63 Nick Taylor 55 755 59
64 Sergio Garcia 44 745 66
65 Abraham Ancer 48 744 60
66 Brendon Todd 51 743 61
67 JT Poston 56 738 70
68 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 57 734 64
69 Brendan Steele 45 728 65
70 Justin Suh 31 720 83
71 Maverick McNealy 52 716 67
72 Pat Perez 40 714 72
73 Andrew Putnam 59 711 71
74 Kevin Na 40 704 73
75 Ben Griffin 26 699 69
76 Sepp Straka 64 698 99
77 Lucas Herbert 51 688 76
78 Beau Hossler 54 681 78
79 JJ Spaun 60 679 74
80 Jason Kokrak 43 677 77
81 Min Woo Lee 51 676 95
82 Hayden Buckley 52 674 89
83 Adam Svensson 54 671 82
84 Matthew Wolff 38 671 79
85 Alex Noren 52 671 75
86 Sebastian Munoz 49 669 81
87 Scott Stallings 57 659 80
88 Marc Leishman 47 656 84
89 Eric Cole 27 655 115
90 Louis Oosthuizen 39 653 85
91 Matthew NeSmith 55 652 96
92 Patrick Rodgers 61 648 90
93 Taylor Pendrith 45 641 94
94 Emiliano Grillo 55 637 86
95 Anirban Lahiri 45 631 87
96 Mac Hughes 53 629 88
97 Alex Smalley 55 621 101
98 Ryan Fox 54 621 106
99 Byeong Hun An 37 612 93
100 Sam Ryder 60 591 92
101 Peter Uihlein 37 587 100
102 Joel Dahmen 51 585 91
103 Kevin Kisner 48 581 98
104 Thomas Detry 58 579 103
105 Bubba Watson 26 575 102
106 Branden Grace 50 569 105
107 SH Kim 28 568 107
108 Jhonattan Vegas 38 567 104
109 Stephan Jaeger 56 556 108
110 Robby Shelton 35 551 110
111 Thomas Pieters 44 551 111
112 Aaron Rai 64 541 112
113 Brandon Wu 51 539 109
114 Victor Perez 47 534 155
115 Mark Hubbard 56 520 113
116 Dean Burmester 51 519 114
117 Vincent Norrman 12 515 119
118 Lee Hodges 55 510 117
119 Francesco Molinari 43 508 116
120 Adrian Meronk 52 506 125
121 Matt Jones 47 505 122
122 Kevin Yu 19 504 121
123 Adam Schenk 63 502 118
124 Carlos Ortiz 43 501 123
125 Richard Bland 48 501 124
126 Erik van Rooyen 48 486 128
127 Ryan Palmer 46 485 131
128 Chez Reavie 57 484 133
129 Nate Lashley 49 484 130
130 Trey Mullinax 51 480 126
131 Ben Taylor 34 479 120
132 Danny Willett 52 475 127
133 Ian Poulter 50 464 134
134 Eugenio Chacarra 18 463 138
135 Phil Mickelson 31 461 132
136 Webb Simpson 41 461 129
137 Lanto Griffin 39 458 139
138 CT Pan 41 456 141
139 Michael Kim 34 450 144
140 Lee Westwood 40 450 143
141 Nick Hardy 47 449 136
142 Padraig Harrington 31 449 142
143 Rasmus Hojgaard 47 445 137
144 David Lingmerth 46 445 135
145 David Lipsky 55 443 145
146 Charl Schwartzel 45 438 146
147 John Huh 44 437 148
148 Sam Horsfield 41 437 149
149 Jimmy Walker 38 435 140
150 Kevin Streelman 54 433 147
151 Troy Merritt 56 428 150
152 Patton Kizzire 57 423 152
153 Luke List 55 412 154
154 Robert MacIntyre 51 412 151
155 Peter Malnati 58 411 157
156 Samuel Stevens 21 408 156
157 Michael Thompson 48 404 158
158 Alexander Bjork 41 397 159
159 Davis Thompson 30 395 153
160 Dylan Frittelli 62 391 161
161 Jordan Smith 51 384 160
162 Doug Ghim 53 383 163
163 Joseph Bramlett 63 382 164
164 Adam Long 58 376 165
165 Danny Lee 47 373 166
166 Bernd Wiesberger 44 370 167
167 Russell Knox 59 369 168
168 Henrik Stenson 42 362 169
169 Callum Tarren 50 361 190
170 Sadom Kaewkanjana 21 361 162
171 Ben Martin 49 359 170
172 Carson Young 23 356 173
173 Martin Laird 48 354 172
174 Will Gordon 34 352 175
175 Garrick Higgo 58 351 176
176 Harry Hall 29 348 177
177 Thorbjorn Olesen 46 344 171
178 Matt Wallace 60 344 174
179 Dylan Wu 50 340 179
180 Zach Johnson 41 338 178
181 Scott Piercy 58 337 180
182 Lucas Glover 54 335 181
183 Zac Blair 15 335 184
184 Cameron Champ 44 334 182
185 Scott Vincent 31 334 185
186 Aaron Baddeley 41 332 186
187 Tyler Duncan 57 330 188
188 Chase Koepka 19 330 187
189 Stewart Cink 50 327 189
190 Adri Arnaus 50 324 183
191 Nicolai Hojgaard 54 320 191
192 Graeme McDowell 38 318 192
193 Andrew Novak 47 316 193
194 Cameron Percy 39 309 197
195 Austin Eckroat 31 308 196
196 Adrian Otaegui 58 306 195
197 Pablo Larrazabal 43 304 194
198 Sean O’Hair 40 301 198
199 MJ Daffue 31 297 202
200 Chesson Hadley 58 296 201
201 Laurie Canter 47 296 204
202 Greyson Sigg 57 295 203
203 Charley Hoffman 49 293 200
204 Matthias Schwab 57 290 205
205 Antoine Rozner 54 289 207
206 James Hahn 48 288 209
207 Akshay Bhatia 22 287 212
208 Andy Ogletree 8 287 208
209 Yannik Paul 40 287 199
210 Hudson Swafford 40 284 210
211 Fabrizio Zanotti 41 282 215
212 Austin Smotherman 49 281 216
213 Chad Ramey 53 281 214
214 Harry Higgs 58 280 213
215 Vincent Whaley 45 279 206
216 Justin Lower 50 278 217
217 Doc Redman 54 278 218
218 Callum Shinkwin 44 275 211
219 Erik Barnes 22 274 219
220 Julien Brun 36 274 220
221 Jorge Campillo 60 268 222
222 Romain Langasque 55 266 223
223 Justin Harding 44 264 224
224 Andrew Johnston 12 261 226
225 Richard Mansell 42 261 227
226 Ryan Gerard 12 260 225
227 Matthieu Pavon 51 258 230
228 Christopher Gotterup 22 257 221
229 Jason Scrivener 42 255 231
230 Grant Forrest 52 251 232
231 Martin Kaymer 29 251 233
232 Thriston Lawrence 45 251 228
233 Alejandro Tosti 12 247 229
234 Kramer Hickok 56 246 234
235 Marcel Schneider 42 246 236
236 Hennie du Plessis 34 245 237
237 Takumi Kanaya 38 244 235
238 Scott Jamieson 48 241 239
239 Maximilian Kieffer 47 238 241
240 Cody Gribble 15 237 243
241 Robert Streb 58 236 240
242 Zecheng Dou 25 233 248
243 Jamie Donaldson 43 233 244
244 Guido Migliozzi 52 233 242
245 Ryan Armour 52 232 246
246 Harrison Endycott 24 232 245
247 Nathan Kimsey 8 231 249
248 Kevin Tway 61 230 247
249 Oliver Bekker 43 229 250
250 Pierceson Coody 17 227 238
251 Ryan Moore 37 227 251
252 Marcus Helligkilde 33 223 253
253 Tyler McCumber 19 223 252
254 Johannes Veerman 48 219 254
255 Ashun Wu 45 218 255
256 Marcus Armitage 52 217 256
257 Dale Whitnell 57 217 258
258 Edoardo Molinari 51 216 259
259 Richy Werenski 58 216 262
260 Henrik Norlander 56 214 260
261 Rafa Cabrera Bello 55 214 263
262 Rory Sabbatini 42 213 261
263 Satoshi Kodaira 51 212 264
264 Sami Valimaki 47 212 265
265 Sebastian Soderberg 51 211 267
266 Phachara Khongwatmai 17 211 268
267 Ewen Ferguson 41 210 266
268 Brice Garnett 57 209 269
269 Jeunghun Wang 13 208 271
270 Travis Smyth 16 208 272
271 Shubhankar Sharma 52 207 270
272 James Piot 22 207 273
273 Sang-hyun Park 13 207 278
274 Alex Fitzpatrick 12 207 275
275 Eddie Pepperell 46 206 280
276 Richie Ramsay 51 206 276
277 Joost Luiten 45 206 279
278 Ryo Hisatsune 33 205 274
279 Keita Nakajima 19 204 277
280 Nico Echavarria 21 204 257
281 Matthias Schmid 53 203 282
282 Martin Trainer 54 202 284
283 Brandt Snedeker 32 201 285
284 Matthew Southgate 56 200 286
285 Luke Donald 49 197 281
286 Connor Syme 51 194 290
287 Jayden Schaper 15 194 289
288 Calum Hill 28 194 287
289 Mikko Korhonen 42 192 293
290 Matthew Jordan 55 192 291
291 Hank Lebioda 51 192 288
292 Wade Ormsby 40 191 292
293 David Puig 12 190 294
294 Kevin Chappell 37 189 296
295 Masahiro Kawamura 52 189 295
296 Hurly Long 41 188 297
297 Clement Sordet 23 187 298
298 Ockie Strydom 16 186 283
299 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 17 184 300
300 Brian Stuard 63 183 299
301 Daniel Brown 12 182 301
302 Michael Gligic 58 181 304
303 Jinichiro Kozuma 29 180 303
304 Marcus Kinhult 43 179 305
305 Dan Bradbury 14 178 306
306 Aaron Cockerill 46 177 310
307 Austin Cook 59 177 308
308 Chris Stroud 27 177 307
309 Marcel Siem 48 176 309
310 William McGirt 37 176 313
311 Bi-o Kim 14 175 311
312 Angel Hidalgo 35 175 312
313 David Micheluzzi 8 175
314 Haotong Li 38 174 319
315 George Coetzee 44 174 317
316 Steve Lewton 12 174 314
317 Simon Forsstrom 12 174 316
318 Brent Grant 28 172 318
319 Andy Sullivan 51 172 315
320 Tyson Alexander 25 169 320
321 Jazz Janewattananond 57 169 321
322 Niklas Norgaard Moller 38 169 322
323 Cole Hammer 21 167 302
324 Zander Lombard 59 167 323
325 Jed Morgan 24 165 324
326 Jeff Winther 46 164 325
327 Turk Pettit 17 163 328
328 Tapio Pulkkanen 50 163 326
329 David Law 53 163 327
330 Estanislao Goya 21 162 329
331 Sung Kang 54 161 330
332 Julien Guerrier 52 161 332
333 Seung-yul Noh 42 159 331
334 Gavin Green 54 159 333
335 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 53 158 334
336 Lukas Nemecz 38 156 335
337 Kalle Samooja 48 156 337
338 Joakim Lagergren 51 155 336
339 Kyong-jun Moon 9 153 339
340 Kelly Kraft 51 152 340
341 Paul Waring 39 151 341
342 Jonathan Byrd 40 151 342
343 Ross Fisher 51 150 343
344 Daniel Gavins 53 149 345
345 Matthew Baldwin 24 148 346
346 John Catlin 52 148 344
347 Augusto Nunez 23 147 338
348 Alejandro Del Rey 15 146 347
349 Jens Dantorp 26 145 350
350 Vaughn Taylor 34 145 348
351 Keenan Davidse 10 143 355
352 Daniel van Tonder 56 143 353
353 Paul Haley 23 143 354
354 Stephen Stallings 9 143 357
355 Max McGreevy 54 143 352
356 Carl Yuan 20 143 351
357 Ryosuke Kinoshita 33 142 356
358 Jeong Weon Ko 15 141 358
359 Sihwan Kim 40 141 349
360 Anthony Quayle 23 139 361
361 JC Ritchie 30 139 359
362 Brandon Matthews 26 137 360
363 Alexander Knappe 19 135 363
364 Nick Watney 56 135 362
365 Louis de Jager 41 135 365
366 Espen Kofstad 30 134 366
367 Tom Lewis 32 134 368
368 Bill Haas 52 130 372
369 Paul Barjon 41 129 364
370 Francesco Laporta 50 129 369
371 Jacques Kruyswijk 34 129 371
372 Shaun Norris 40 128 375
373 Kyle Westmoreland 24 127 376
374 Justin Walters 54 127 377
375 Tom McKibbin 20 126 378
376 Wil Besseling 51 125 379
377 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 38 125 381
378 Daniel Young 9 125 388
379 Kazuki Higa 37 124 370
380 Patrick Flavin 20 124 367
381 Mikumu Horikawa 27 124 380
382 Rikuya Hoshino 35 124 374
383 Joachim B Hansen 48 123 382
384 Chase Seiffert 39 123 373
385 Santiago Tarrio Ben 52 123 383
386 Craig Howie 31 121 385
387 James Morrison 56 120 389
388 Ricardo Gouveia 32 120 387
389 Berry Henson 19 119 390
390 Roger Sloan 49 118 384
391 Wilco Nienaber 42 118 391
392 Ian Snyman 13 118 392
393 Yuki Inamori 30 117 393
394 Trevor Werbylo 24 117 394
395 Kevin Roy 24 116 396
396 Andrew Wilson 32 115 395
397 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 34 114 399
398 Jaco Prinsloo 11 114 398
399 Jack Senior 43 113 397
400 Hiroshi Iwata 26 112 401
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.