PGA Championship Power Ratings

May 15, 2023 Thomas Hawley ,

Another week goes by, and Scottie Scheffler’s amazing run of success on the PGA Tour continues. After finishing fifth (three strokes behind Jason Day) in last week’s Byron Nelson, Scheffler has appeared 13 times since November and his worst finish in the span is 12th in the Genesis. He has 10 top-10 finishes in those six months. He’s the pick again this week in the year’s second major, the PGA Championship, being competed at Oak Hill CC, just outside Rochester NY.

As befitting a major championship, everybody is here. Other than the ailing Daniel Berger and Will Zalatoris, all of the world’s top 50 players (per the Hawley Ratings) are in the field, which includes 17 players from the LIV tour. The second pick is Xander Schauffele, coming in with five straight top-10s (Wells Fargo, Zurich, Heritage, Masters, and Match Play). Then come no. 1-ranked Patrick Cantlay and former no. 1 Jon Rahm. These four have separated themselves from the rest of the field in play during 2023. With the PGA Tour’s focus on structuring to bring the top players together more frequently, all four competed against each other in a stretch of seven events in a two-month window from mid-February to mid-April. Scheffler was the top finisher four times, including the Palmer and Phoenix wins. Rahm was the top man twice, both wins, the Genesis and TPC. Cantlay was tops the other time.

Based on the typical PGA Championship course over the past eight years, putting and driving distance are the stats most closely associated with success. Thus Rahm and the 24-year-old Australian Min Woo Lee would appear to be the two best fits for the course in the field. Then come Scheffler, Danish DP World Tour player Thorbjorn Olesen, and 28-year-old Tour rookie Taylor Montgomery.

Players from down a bit on the list of favorites who have made themselves noticable this year include Wyndham Clark, Taylor Moore, Emiliano Grillo, and Patrick Rodgers. Clark, a good fit for the course, won his last time out (Wells Fargo) and has four top-10s in his last six appearances. Moore has two top-10s in his last five appearances, including the Valspar win, and was 11th another time. Grillo was in the top 10 twice in three appearances since mid-April. Rogers missed the cut at the Wells Fargo, his last time out, but was in the top 10 in two of three before that and in the top 20 the third time. Veterans Russell Henley, Justin Rose, and Matt Kuchar also come in playing well.

Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Scottie Scheffler -11.6 2
2 Xander Schauffele -10.5 18
3 Patrick Cantlay -9.2 9
4 Jon Rahm -1.8 50
5 Sungjae Im 8.9 135
6 Rory McIlroy 11.2 7
7 Tyrrell Hatton 16.6 15
8 Justin Thomas 18.4 65
9 Jordan Spieth 19.2 29
10 Tony Finau 20.6 72
11 Dustin Johnson 20.7 55
12 Max Homa 23.0 55
13 Matthew Fitzpatrick 23.1 77
14 Viktor Hovland 24.5 2
15 Jason Day 25.7 98
16 Brooks Koepka 28.3 1
17 Cameron Smith 28.3 9
18 Rickie Fowler 28.5 77
19 Sam Burns 28.6 142
20 Collin Morikawa 29.8 26
21 Justin Rose 30.4 9
22 Russell Henley 30.7 88
23 Tommy Fleetwood 30.7 18
24 Adam Scott 32.6 29
25 Corey Conners 33.1 12
26 Sahith Theegala 34.2 40
27 Cameron Young 34.5 109
28 Hideki Matsuyama 34.9 29
29 Wyndham Clark 35.0 98
30 Matt Kuchar 35.5 88
31 Talor Gooch 35.9 120
32 Tom Kim 36.4 98
33 Denny McCarthy 36.8 29
34 Taylor Moore 36.8 72
35 Joaquin Niemann 37.0 98
36 Shane Lowry 37.4 12
37 Patrick Reed 38.2 18
38 Keegan Bradley 39.0 29
39 Seamus Power 41.2 109
40 Brian Harman 41.8 77
41 Keith Mitchell 43.0 58
42 Adam Hadwin 43.0 40
43 Gary Woodland 43.6 98
44 Si Woo Kim 44.3 77
45 Chris Kirk 44.7 29
46 Cameron Davis 45.2 4
47 Paul Casey 45.3 DNP
48 Harold Varner 45.5 29
49 Billy Horschel 45.9 77
50 Mito Pereira 46.2 18
51 Taylor Montgomery 46.3 65
52 Tom Hoge 46.5 58
53 Abraham Ancer 47.0 122
54 Nick Taylor 47.2 88
55 Harris English 47.3 109
56 Emiliano Grillo 48.2 109
57 KH Lee 48.4 29
58 Aaron Wise 48.4 142
59 Beau Hossler 50.2 40
60 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 50.5 77
61 Patrick Rodgers 50.7 29
62 Brendon Todd 51.0 88
63 Hayden Buckley 51.2 26
64 Brendan Steele 51.3 77
65 Davis Riley 51.6 88
66 Davis Riley 51.6 88
67 JT Poston 52.3 40
68 JJ Spaun 53.5 109
69 Lucas Herbert 53.6 40
70 Andrew Putnam 53.8 77
71 Ben Griffin 54.4 88
72 Kurt Kitayama 54.4 4
73 Maverick McNealy 54.8 122
74 Anirban Lahiri 54.9 88
75 Matthew NeSmith 55.3 23
76 Alex Noren 55.4 88
77 Mac Hughes 55.4 98
78 Adam Svensson 55.4 40
79 Mark Hubbard 55.5 75
80 Scott Stallings 56.5 98
81 Bryson DeChambeau 56.5 4
82 Ryan Fox 56.9 23
83 Phil Mickelson 57.0 58
84 Justin Suh 57.2 26
85 Sam Ryder 57.4 127
86 Joel Dahmen 57.9 69
87 Chez Reavie 57.9 40
88 Brandon Wu 58.0 109
89 Dean Burmester 58.0 54
90 Taylor Pendrith 58.1 29
91 Min Woo Lee 58.3 18
92 Adrian Meronk 58.5 40
93 Thomas Detry 58.6 40
94 Sepp Straka 58.7 7
95 Thomas Pieters 58.9 40
96 Alex Smalley 58.9 23
97 Kevin Kisner 59.8 135
98 Nick Hardy 60.5 109
99 Francesco Molinari 60.5 88
100 Jimmy Walker 60.8 109
101 Webb Simpson 60.9 142
102 Victor Perez 61.1 12
103 Robert MacIntyre 61.5 127
104 Padraig Harrington 61.6 50
105 Danny Willett 61.7 122
106 Ben Taylor 61.9 69
107 Rasmus Hojgaard 62.0 109
108 Adam Schenk 62.0 135
109 Lee Hodges 62.0 55
110 Trey Mullinax 63.0 98
111 David Lingmerth 63.0 135
112 Jordan Smith 63.5 77
113 Nicolai Hojgaard 65.1 50
114 Sadom Kaewkanjana 65.2 127
115 Davis Thompson 65.6 77
116 Thorbjorn Olesen 65.7 122
117 Yannik Paul 66.5 69
118 Pablo Larrazabal 66.7 65
119 Adri Arnaus 67.0 77
120 Matt Wallace 67.3 65
121 Adrian Otaegui 67.5 98
122 Zach Johnson 67.5 58
123 Callum Shinkwin 68.4 98
124 Callum Tarren 68.5 29
125 Thriston Lawrence 69.5 62
126 Ockie Strydom 70.0 135
127 David Micheluzzi 70.4 109
128 Nico Echavarria 71.7 109
129 Luke Donald 72.5 88
130 Sihwan Kim 73.4 62
131 Rikuya Hoshino 73.5 62
132 Kazuki Higa 73.8 76
133 Steven Alker 77.7 127
134 YE Yang 77.8 122
135 Alex Beach 77.9 148
136 Michael Block 77.9 15
137 Matt Cahill 77.9 120
138 Anthony Cordes 77.9 148
139 John Daly 77.9 DNP
140 Jesse Droemer 77.9 146
141 Chris French 77.9 145
142 Russell Grove 77.9 152
143 Steve Holmes 77.9 127
144 Colin Inglis 77.9 98
145 Ben Kern 77.9 135
146 JJ Killeen 77.9 135
147 Greg Koch 77.9 127
148 Shaun Micheel 77.9 155
149 Kenny Pigman 77.9 153
150 Chris Sanger 77.9 156
151 Braden Shattuck 77.9 127
152 John Somers 77.9 146
153 Josh Speight 77.9 148
154 Jeremy Wells 77.9 127
155 Wyatt Worthington 77.9 148
Eric Cole late entry 15
Stephan Jaeger late entry 52
Sam Stevens late entry 74
Gabe Reynolds late entry 154
More | Less
May 22, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 163. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

A look at the PGA Championship

May 15, 2023 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Justin Rose 0.721
Brooks Koepka 0.717
Rickie Fowler 0.595
Webb Simpson 0.585
Jason Day 0.584
Shane Lowry 0.569
Jordan Spieth 0.561
Hideki Matsuyama 0.559

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Patrick Cantlay 1 2273.4
Scottie Scheffler 2 2265.5
Xander Schauffele 3 2089.4
Jon Rahm 4 2051.3
Rory McIlroy 5 1883.5
Sungjae Im 6 1716.3
Max Homa 7 1613.3
Justin Thomas 8 1604.9

Read more

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Rankings (May 14, 2023)

May 15, 2023 Thomas Hawley

Patrick Cantlay is in his fifth week back at no. 1.
# Thru May 14, 2023 Events Hawley Rating Last Week
1 Patrick Cantlay 42 2273 1
2 Scottie Scheffler 52 2266 2
3 Xander Schauffele 48 2089 3
4 Jon Rahm 45 2051 4
5 Rory McIlroy 44 1884 5
6 Sungjae Im 57 1716 6
7 Max Homa 50 1613 7
8 Justin Thomas 46 1605 8
9 Tyrrell Hatton 53 1537 9
10 Viktor Hovland 52 1503 10
11 Jordan Spieth 47 1480 11
12 Tony Finau 54 1445 12
13 Cameron Smith 43 1407 13
14 Will Zalatoris 41 1387 14
15 Matthew Fitzpatrick 52 1383 15
16 Dustin Johnson 38 1373 16
17 Jason Day 40 1358 19
18 Sam Burns 52 1348 17
19 Collin Morikawa 50 1304 18
20 Cameron Young 46 1286 20
21 Daniel Berger 22 1213 21
22 Tommy Fleetwood 55 1173 24
23 Joaquin Niemann 50 1161 25
24 Rickie Fowler 42 1144 26
25 Tom Kim 35 1144 23
26 Talor Gooch 47 1140 22
27 Adam Scott 44 1138 31
28 Sahith Theegala 59 1131 27
29 Corey Conners 54 1120 28
30 Russell Henley 43 1114 29
31 Hideki Matsuyama 46 1109 30
32 Shane Lowry 51 1068 33
33 Keegan Bradley 53 1056 34
34 Denny McCarthy 58 1048 35
35 Matt Kuchar 45 1044 32
36 Keith Mitchell 53 1034 36
37 Seamus Power 53 1034 37
38 Justin Rose 40 1028 38
39 Wyndham Clark 57 1009 42
40 Adam Hadwin 53 1008 40
41 Taylor Moore 49 1007 41
42 Taylor Montgomery 28 976 39
43 Brian Harman 54 969 43
44 Tom Hoge 62 934 44
45 Patrick Reed 53 932 45
46 Si Woo Kim 59 918 51
47 Brooks Koepka 42 913 48
48 Chris Kirk 51 904 47
49 Harold Varner 47 882 52
50 Mito Pereira 48 876 46
51 Aaron Wise 44 862 49
52 Billy Horschel 54 856 53
53 Cameron Davis 51 855 54
54 Paul Casey 35 823 50
55 Gary Woodland 48 817 55
56 Harris English 44 811 56
57 Davis Riley 54 788 57
58 Charles Howell 33 779 65
59 Nick Taylor 55 778 61
60 Abraham Ancer 48 774 58
61 Brendon Todd 51 770 64
62 Cameron Tringale 49 767 63
63 KH Lee 56 762 59
64 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 56 754 67
65 Brendan Steele 44 753 68
66 Sergio Garcia 45 747 66
67 Maverick McNealy 52 744 62
68 Kurt Kitayama 53 742 69
69 Ben Griffin 25 736 60
70 JT Poston 56 732 72
71 Andrew Putnam 59 731 71
72 Pat Perez 41 715 73
73 Kevin Na 41 706 70
74 JJ Spaun 59 697 76
75 Alex Noren 51 695 75
76 Lucas Herbert 50 684 80
77 Jason Kokrak 44 679 84
78 Beau Hossler 53 678 82
79 Matthew Wolff 38 675 74
80 Scott Stallings 57 674 78
81 Sebastian Munoz 50 669 79
82 Adam Svensson 53 666 85
83 Justin Suh 30 664 77
84 Marc Leishman 47 657 81
85 Louis Oosthuizen 39 656 83
86 Emiliano Grillo 55 656 86
87 Anirban Lahiri 45 652 88
88 Mac Hughes 53 651 91
89 Hayden Buckley 51 639 87
90 Patrick Rodgers 61 621 90
91 Joel Dahmen 51 608 92
92 Sam Ryder 60 606 93
93 Byeong Hun An 38 606 106
94 Taylor Pendrith 44 605 94
95 Min Woo Lee 51 604 89
96 Matthew NeSmith 55 602 96
97 Bryson DeChambeau 35 601 103
98 Kevin Kisner 48 600 95
99 Sepp Straka 64 586 99
100 Peter Uihlein 38 585 97
101 Alex Smalley 54 579 100
102 Bubba Watson 26 572 113
103 Thomas Detry 58 572 102
104 Jhonattan Vegas 39 571 101
105 Branden Grace 51 569 112
106 Ryan Fox 54 565 104
107 SH Kim 28 565 98
108 Stephan Jaeger 55 561 114
109 Brandon Wu 50 554 108
110 Robby Shelton 36 546 105
111 Thomas Pieters 43 540 111
112 Aaron Rai 65 540 107
113 Mark Hubbard 56 533 110
114 Dean Burmester 50 526 125
115 Eric Cole 26 526 126
116 Francesco Molinari 42 524 115
117 Lee Hodges 54 517 116
118 Adam Schenk 63 515 109
119 Vincent Norrman 12 514 166
120 Ben Taylor 33 504 124
121 Kevin Yu 19 504 121
122 Matt Jones 48 502 118
123 Carlos Ortiz 44 501 117
124 Richard Bland 49 500 123
125 Adrian Meronk 52 495 127
126 Trey Mullinax 50 493 119
127 Danny Willett 51 490 128
128 Erik van Rooyen 48 486 122
129 Webb Simpson 40 483 129
130 Nate Lashley 50 483 133
131 Ryan Palmer 47 483 149
132 Phil Mickelson 31 480 120
133 Chez Reavie 56 473 131
134 Ian Poulter 51 468 132
135 David Lingmerth 45 465 136
136 Nick Hardy 46 464 137
137 Rasmus Hojgaard 47 460 138
138 Eugenio Chacarra 18 460 159
139 Lanto Griffin 39 457 139
140 Jimmy Walker 38 455 130
141 CT Pan 42 454 167
142 Padraig Harrington 30 451 141
143 Lee Westwood 41 447 134
144 Michael Kim 34 447 135
145 David Lipsky 55 443 140
146 Charl Schwartzel 45 438 142
147 Kevin Streelman 55 435 145
148 John Huh 44 434 146
149 Sam Horsfield 41 433 147
150 Troy Merritt 57 430 143
151 Robert MacIntyre 51 426 148
152 Patton Kizzire 58 424 150
153 Davis Thompson 29 416 144
154 Luke List 56 413 151
155 Victor Perez 46 410 152
156 Samuel Stevens 21 407 153
157 Peter Malnati 59 407 154
158 Michael Thompson 49 400 155
159 Alexander Bjork 42 397 160
160 Jordan Smith 51 396 157
161 Dylan Frittelli 63 390 156
162 Sadom Kaewkanjana 20 387 158
163 Doug Ghim 54 382 171
164 Joseph Bramlett 64 380 169
165 Adam Long 59 375 162
166 Danny Lee 48 373 161
167 Bernd Wiesberger 45 370 168
168 Russell Knox 60 366 163
169 Henrik Stenson 43 360 175
170 Ben Martin 49 356 170
171 Thorbjorn Olesen 46 355 180
172 Martin Laird 48 354 174
173 Carson Young 23 353 213
174 Matt Wallace 60 353 172
175 Will Gordon 35 351 164
176 Garrick Higgo 58 350 179
177 Harry Hall 29 347 165
178 Zach Johnson 41 347 176
179 Dylan Wu 50 341 173
180 Scott Piercy 59 337 192
181 Lucas Glover 55 335 177
182 Cameron Champ 45 335 178
183 Adri Arnaus 50 334 182
184 Zac Blair 15 333 183
185 Scott Vincent 31 331 193
186 Aaron Baddeley 41 331 199
187 Chase Koepka 19 331 187
188 Tyler Duncan 57 329 181
189 Stewart Cink 50 326 190
190 Callum Tarren 49 325 186
191 Nicolai Hojgaard 54 320 188
192 Graeme McDowell 39 317 184
193 Andrew Novak 47 316 185
194 Pablo Larrazabal 43 315 191
195 Adrian Otaegui 58 315 195
196 Austin Eckroat 31 308 290
197 Cameron Percy 40 307 189
198 Sean O’Hair 40 301 197
199 Yannik Paul 39 298 203
200 Charley Hoffman 50 297 194
201 Chesson Hadley 58 297 198
202 MJ Daffue 31 295 196
203 Greyson Sigg 57 294 200
204 Laurie Canter 48 294 206
205 Matthias Schwab 58 291 202
206 Vincent Whaley 45 288 201
207 Antoine Rozner 54 288 211
208 Andy Ogletree 8 287 209
209 James Hahn 49 287 207
210 Hudson Swafford 41 286 210
211 Callum Shinkwin 44 286 205
212 Akshay Bhatia 22 285 214
213 Harry Higgs 59 283 204
214 Chad Ramey 53 282 215
215 Fabrizio Zanotti 41 281 216
216 Austin Smotherman 49 280 208
217 Justin Lower 50 277 217
218 Doc Redman 55 276 225
219 Erik Barnes 22 276 218
220 Julien Brun 36 274 221
221 Christopher Gotterup 21 270 220
222 Jorge Campillo 61 267 219
223 Romain Langasque 56 264 226
224 Justin Harding 45 262 227
225 Ryan Gerard 12 261 212
226 Andrew Johnston 13 260 228
227 Richard Mansell 43 259 230
228 Thriston Lawrence 44 258 229
229 Alejandro Tosti 11 257 231
230 Matthieu Pavon 52 257 234
231 Jason Scrivener 43 255 222
232 Grant Forrest 52 252 235
233 Martin Kaymer 29 250 224
234 Kramer Hickok 57 249 232
235 Takumi Kanaya 38 245 238
236 Marcel Schneider 43 244 239
237 Hennie du Plessis 34 244 236
238 Pierceson Coody 16 242 223
239 Scott Jamieson 49 239 241
240 Robert Streb 59 239 237
241 Maximilian Kieffer 48 238 240
242 Guido Migliozzi 53 235 243
243 Cody Gribble 15 234 233
244 Jamie Donaldson 43 233 249
245 Harrison Endycott 24 233 244
246 Ryan Armour 52 232 246
247 Kevin Tway 61 232 296
248 Zecheng Dou 25 232 399
249 Nathan Kimsey 8 231 250
250 Oliver Bekker 43 229 245
251 Ryan Moore 37 225 242
252 Tyler McCumber 20 224 252
253 Marcus Helligkilde 34 223 247
254 Johannes Veerman 49 219 256
255 Ashun Wu 46 218 255
256 Marcus Armitage 53 217 259
257 Nico Echavarria 20 217 257
258 Dale Whitnell 58 216 254
259 Edoardo Molinari 52 216 253
260 Henrik Norlander 57 216 271
261 Rory Sabbatini 43 214 263
262 Richy Werenski 59 214 320
263 Rafa Cabrera Bello 56 213 264
264 Satoshi Kodaira 51 212 269
265 Sami Valimaki 47 211 260
266 Ewen Ferguson 41 211 265
267 Sebastian Soderberg 52 211 267
268 Phachara Khongwatmai 17 210 268
269 Brice Garnett 58 210 262
270 Shubhankar Sharma 53 208 261
271 Jeunghun Wang 13 208 251
272 Travis Smyth 16 207 272
273 James Piot 22 207 258
274 Ryo Hisatsune 33 207 291
275 Alex Fitzpatrick 12 206 248
276 Richie Ramsay 52 206 294
277 Keita Nakajima 19 206 273
278 Sang-hyun Park 13 205 274
279 Joost Luiten 46 205 275
280 Eddie Pepperell 47 204 280
281 Luke Donald 48 204 276
282 Matthias Schmid 53 204 266
283 Ockie Strydom 15 204 277
284 Martin Trainer 54 202 270
285 Brandt Snedeker 33 202 278
286 Matthew Southgate 57 199 302
287 Calum Hill 29 194 292
288 Hank Lebioda 51 194 285
289 Jayden Schaper 15 194 287
290 Connor Syme 52 193 279
291 Matthew Jordan 56 192 293
292 Wade Ormsby 41 192 289
293 Mikko Korhonen 43 192 295
294 David Puig 12 189 283
295 Masahiro Kawamura 53 189 286
296 Kevin Chappell 37 189 284
297 Hurly Long 41 187 288
298 Clement Sordet 24 185 282
299 Brian Stuard 64 184 297
300 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 17 184 281
301 Daniel Brown 12 182 308
302 Cole Hammer 20 181 303
303 Jinichiro Kozuma 29 180 309
304 Michael Gligic 59 180 298
305 Marcus Kinhult 43 179 315
306 Dan Bradbury 14 178 348
307 Chris Stroud 27 178 305
308 Austin Cook 60 177 300
309 Marcel Siem 49 177 299
310 Aaron Cockerill 47 177 326
311 Bi-o Kim 14 176 311
312 Angel Hidalgo 35 176 323
313 William McGirt 37 175 301
314 Steve Lewton 12 174 314
315 Andy Sullivan 52 173 307
316 Simon Forsstrom 12 173 401
317 George Coetzee 44 173 316
318 Brent Grant 28 172 306
319 Haotong Li 39 172 310
320 Tyson Alexander 25 171 304
321 Jazz Janewattananond 57 170 313
322 Niklas Norgaard Moller 39 168 318
323 Zander Lombard 59 166 319
324 Jed Morgan 24 165 312
325 Jeff Winther 47 164 317
326 Tapio Pulkkanen 51 163 325
327 David Law 54 163 321
328 Turk Pettit 17 162 327
329 Estanislao Goya 21 162 324
330 Sung Kang 55 161 392
331 Seung-yul Noh 42 160 322
332 Julien Guerrier 53 160 328
333 Gavin Green 55 158 329
334 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 53 158 342
335 Lukas Nemecz 38 157 332
336 Joakim Lagergren 52 156 330
337 Kalle Samooja 48 156 335
338 Augusto Nunez 22 156 367
339 Kyong-jun Moon 9 152 338
340 Kelly Kraft 51 152 333
341 Paul Waring 39 151 339
342 Jonathan Byrd 40 150 350
343 Ross Fisher 52 150 336
344 John Catlin 52 148 343
345 Daniel Gavins 53 148 337
346 Matthew Baldwin 24 147 346
347 Alejandro Del Rey 16 146 331
348 Vaughn Taylor 34 145 349
349 Sihwan Kim 40 144 341
350 Jens Dantorp 26 144 398
351 Carl Yuan 20 144 334
352 Max McGreevy 54 144 344
353 Daniel van Tonder 56 143 345
354 Paul Haley 23 142 340
355 Keenan Davidse 10 142 354
356 Ryosuke Kinoshita 33 142 355
357 Stephen Stallings 9 141 358
358 Jeong Weon Ko 15 140 386
359 JC Ritchie 30 139 347
360 Brandon Matthews 26 138 352
361 Anthony Quayle 23 138 360
362 Nick Watney 56 136 353
363 Alexander Knappe 19 135 351
364 Paul Barjon 40 135 363
365 Louis de Jager 41 134 357
366 Espen Kofstad 30 133 366
367 Patrick Flavin 19 133 364
368 Tom Lewis 33 133 356
369 Francesco Laporta 51 130 359
370 Kazuki Higa 36 130 369
371 Jacques Kruyswijk 34 129 371
372 Bill Haas 52 129 365
373 Chase Seiffert 39 129 373
374 Rikuya Hoshino 34 128 361
375 Shaun Norris 40 128 374
376 Kyle Westmoreland 24 127 362
377 Justin Walters 54 126 372
378 Tom McKibbin 20 126 376
379 Wil Besseling 52 126 368
380 Mikumu Horikawa 27 125 377
381 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 39 125 429
382 Joachim B Hansen 49 124 378
383 Santiago Tarrio Ben 52 123 379
384 Roger Sloan 49 121 370
385 Craig Howie 31 121 393
386 Martin Contini 8 120 384
387 Ricardo Gouveia 32 120 375
388 Daniel Young 9 120 391
389 James Morrison 57 119 416
390 Berry Henson 19 119 388
391 Wilco Nienaber 43 118 383
392 Ian Snyman 13 117 389
393 Yuki Inamori 30 117 390
394 Trevor Werbylo 24 117 380
395 Andrew Wilson 32 115 435
396 Kevin Roy 24 115 381
397 Jack Senior 44 114 382
398 Jaco Prinsloo 11 114 394
399 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 34 114 387
400 Sean Crocker 54 113 385
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

AT&T Byron Nelson Power Rankings

May 8, 2023 Thomas Hawley ,

For PGA Tour players and others who must travel for a living, there’s nothing like getting home and sleeping in your own bed. Also, for a pro golfer it doesn’t hurt to be the top-rated player in an event, arrive on site playing very well, and have confidence that the course is one on which you should play very well. That’s all true for Scottie Scheffler, Dallas resident who heads the field for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson. Scheffler is no. 2 in the world (Hawley Rankings), and the only other top-10 player in the field is no. 9 Tyrrell Hatton. From ranks 11 thru 20, it’s only Jordan Spieth and Jason Day.

In two iterations of this event on the TPC Craig Ranch course (both won by KH Lee), the statistics most highly correlated with success on the course have been greens in regulation and driving distance. Scheffler is in the top 5 percent in GIR and top quarter in driving distance. His steady excellence has been no secret for a long time. He’s appeared 12 times since November and his worst finish in the span is 12th in the Genesis. He’s been in the top 10 nine times and won TPC and at Phoenix.

The only player who would appear to be a better statistical fit for the course is Min Woo Lee, who is in the top 10 percent in both GIR and driving. And in terms of recent success, veterans Matt Kuchar, Hidecki Matsuyama, and Jimmy Walker have been solid. Kuchar was third when the Tour last visited Texas (Valero Texas Open in April), and has two other top-20s and a 23rd last week in his last four outings. Matsuyama comes in off a one-month break, with had a pair of top-20s at the Masters and Texas immediately prior, plus a top-10 at TPC. For Walker, it’s been a long time since his last top-10 (June of 2021) but he’s been in the top 25 four of his last five starts, with a best of 14th last week.

Among the under-30 set, Min Woo Lee, Michael Kim, Dylan Wu, and Carson Young have shown upward mobility in the rankings. Lee had a great winter on the other side of the globe and was sixth in TPC. Kim was in the top 10 at the Wells Fargo last week. Wu has made all but one cut since February, with one top-10. Young had a pair of top-20s in April.

Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Scottie Scheffler -12.8 5
2 Jordan Spieth 17.3 DNP
3 Tyrrell Hatton 21.0 5
4 Jason Day 28.2 1
5 Hideki Matsuyama 31.1 23
6 Tom Kim 31.9 34
7 Matt Kuchar 32.0 43
8 KH Lee 34.9 50
9 Adam Scott 35.7 8
10 Seamus Power 40.9 19
11 Adam Hadwin 41.6 34
12 Taylor Montgomery 43.1 50
13 Tom Hoge 46.0 43
14 Si Woo Kim 46.6 2
15 Aaron Wise 47.1 50
16 Davis Riley 49.6 85
17 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 51.4 23
18 JJ Spaun 52.0 DNP
19 Ben Griffin 52.1 96
20 Maverick McNealy 52.2 96
21 Min Woo Lee 52.7 134
22 Scott Stallings 52.8 123
23 Mark Hubbard 54.3 DNP
24 Justin Suh 54.5 113
25 Mac Hughes 54.7 14
26 Matthew NeSmith 55.6 30
27 Byeong Hun An 55.8 14
28 Jimmy Walker 56.4 74
29 SH Kim 56.4 50
30 Stephan Jaeger 56.7 11
31 Adam Schenk 57.3 85
32 Alex Smalley 57.9 DNP
33 Nate Lashley 58.8 23
34 Aaron Rai 58.9 96
35 Robby Shelton 59.1 43
36 Michael Kim 59.2 123
37 Brandon Wu 59.2 23
38 Eric Cole 60.8 23
39 Erik van Rooyen 61.3 113
40 Trey Mullinax 61.7 113
41 Vincent Norrman 62.7 8
42 Lanto Griffin 62.7 DNP
43 Dylan Wu 62.8 85
44 David Lipsky 62.9 85
45 Troy Merritt 63.2 151
46 Davis Thompson 63.3 70
47 Patton Kizzire 63.5 30
48 Ryan Palmer 63.6 8
49 Michael Thompson 63.7 DNP
50 Harry Hall 63.9 83
51 Joseph Bramlett 64.0 19
52 Sean O’Hair 64.6 50
53 Luke List 64.7 34
54 Adam Long 65.2 50
55 Dylan Frittelli 65.3 85
56 Will Gordon 65.5 70
57 Doug Ghim 65.6 19
58 Carson Young 65.8 14
59 Russell Knox 65.8 104
60 Zac Blair 65.9 DNP
61 Andrew Novak 66.2 67
62 Cameron Champ 66.3 50
63 MJ Daffue 66.3 141
64 CT Pan 66.3 4
65 Chad Ramey 66.5 50
66 Charley Hoffman 66.6 85
67 Tyler Duncan 66.6 123
68 Martin Laird 66.8 34
69 Cameron Percy 67.1 123
70 Garrick Higgo 67.1 30
71 Lucas Glover 67.1 79
72 Harry Higgs 67.6 123
73 Matthias Schwab 67.7 85
74 Scott Piercy 67.7 19
75 Stewart Cink 67.8 34
76 Greyson Sigg 67.8 85
77 Vincent Whaley 67.9 79
78 Austin Smotherman 68.0 104
79 Aaron Baddeley 68.1 23
80 Cody Gribble 68.3 123
81 Chesson Hadley 68.3 113
82 David Micheluzzi 68.3 67
83 James Hahn 68.4 50
84 Ryan Gerard 68.5 146
85 Pierceson Coody 69.2 123
86 Justin Lower 69.3 43
87 Kramer Hickok 69.5 141
88 Brice Garnett 69.8 77
89 Robert Streb 69.8 67
90 Kevin Chappell 69.8 104
91 Martin Trainer 69.8 123
92 Doc Redman 69.9 30
93 Ryan Armour 70.4 50
94 Ryan Moore 70.5 96
95 Harrison Endycott 70.5 50
96 Henrik Norlander 70.7 34
97 Michael Gligic 71.4 85
98 Matthias Schmid 71.4 141
99 Satoshi Kodaira 71.6 43
100 Seung-yul Noh 71.8 74
101 Chris Stroud 71.8 50
102 Kevin Tway 71.9 11
103 Austin Eckroat 71.9 2
104 Hank Lebioda 72.0 DNP
105 Tyson Alexander 72.1 96
106 Brandon Matthews 72.2 141
107 Brian Stuard 72.2 113
108 Austin Cook 72.4 85
109 Brent Grant 72.4 83
110 Estanislao Goya 72.4 50
111 William McGirt 72.5 64
112 Richy Werenski 72.9 11
113 Carl Yuan 73.1 137
114 Augusto Nunez 73.1 34
115 Bill Haas 73.1 74
116 Paul Haley 73.2 146
117 Jonathan Byrd 73.3 43
118 Roger Sloan 73.6 79
119 Nick Watney 73.6 134
120 Kelly Kraft 73.7 79
121 Kevin Roy 73.7 85
122 Kyle Westmoreland 73.7 137
123 Max McGreevy 73.8 137
124 Trevor Werbylo 73.9 134
125 Sung Kang 73.9 14
126 Geoff Ogilvy 74.2 123
127 Zecheng Dou 74.7 5
128 Ricky Barnes 74.9 141
129 Scott Harrington 74.9 50
130 Ryan Brehm 75.0 64
131 Jonas Blixt 75.1 104
132 Andrew Landry 75.2 146
133 Jim Herman 75.2 70
134 Jason Dufner 75.3 137
135 Sangmoon Bae 75.6 43
136 Wesley Bryan 75.6 123
137 Grayson Murray 75.6 96
138 Bo Van Pelt 75.7 104
139 Fabian Gomez 75.9 77
140 Scott Brown 76.0 113
141 Tommy Gainey 76.4 34
142 Derek Ernst 76.4 153
143 Derek Lamely 76.4 155
144 Greg Chalmers 76.7 70
145 Camilo Villegas 76.7 DNP
146 Sam Stevens 77.0 34
147 DA Points 77.2 151
148 Kyle Stanley 77.3 113
149 Ben Crane 77.5 146
150 DJ Trahan 77.6 96
151 George McNeill 77.6 123
152 Arjun Atwal 77.7 DNP
153 Trevor Cone 77.7 23
154 Ted Potter 77.8 96
155 Kevin Stadler 77.8 113
156 Parker Coody 77.8 64
157 JJ Killeen 77.9 113
158 William Knauth 77.9 153
159 Peter Kuest 77.9 14
160 Richard Johnson 77.9 155
Logan McCracken late entry 105
Taylor Bibbs late entry 108
Mac Meissner late entry 110
Bobby Massa late entry 112
Robert Garrigus late entry 114
Jeffrey Kang late entry 146
More | Less
May 15, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 118. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

A look at the AT&T Byron Nelson

May 8, 2023 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Jordan Spieth 0.744
Hideki Matsuyama 0.584
Matt Kuchar 0.581
KH Lee 0.517
Scott Stallings 0.512
Ryan Palmer 0.477
Seamus Power 0.431
Nate Lashley 0.375

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Scottie Scheffler 2 2253.6
Tyrrell Hatton 9 1503.2
Jordan Spieth 11 1476.5
Jason Day 19 1300.1
Tom Kim 23 1170.5
Hideki Matsuyama 30 1107.3
Adam Scott 31 1097.4
Matt Kuchar 32 1068.1

Read more

LIV Golf Invitational Tulsa Power Ratings

May 8, 2023 Thomas Hawley

LIV Golf touches down in the U.S. for the first time in 2023 this weekend, in Tulsa, and despite some criticism, the tour has generated some enthusiasm and a nice spread of names on the leaderboards this year. Big crowds turned out in Australia last month. Five events this season have produced four different winners (Talor Gooch, Charles Howell, Brooks Koepka, Danny Lee) and six other players who have finished second or tied for second. Perhaps surprisingly, the two biggest names in the gang — Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson — are not in those categories. Johnson’s best finish is a seventh and Mickelson’s best is an 11th. Overall 29 players have at least one top-10. At the other end of the spectrum, four players — Martin Kaymer, Sihwan Kim, Chase Koepka, and Jed Morgan — have been barely competitive. For 10 others, the median finish is 30th or worse. Yikes! This week the nod goes to Cameron Smith, the defending (British) Open champion, who has three top-five finishes so far in LIV 2023.


Cameron Smith
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Cameron Smith 27.3 2
2 Dustin Johnson 29.9 1
3 Talor Gooch 33.1 36
4 Joaquin Niemann 36.1 8
5 Patrick Reed 39.4 11
6 Brooks Koepka 39.9 5
7 Mito Pereira 44.0 30
8 Harold Varner 46.0 4
9 Cameron Tringale 47.7 18
10 Paul Casey 48.3 40
11 Charles Howell 48.7 11
12 Abraham Ancer 49.6 23
13 Sergio Garcia 50.0 23
14 Kevin Na 51.2 44
15 Pat Perez 51.2 18
16 Brendan Steele 51.3 11
17 Louis Oosthuizen 51.7 23
18 Jason Kokrak 51.7 11
19 Matthew Wolff 51.9 30
20 Marc Leishman 52.7 36
21 Sebastian Munoz 53.2 30
22 Peter Uihlein 53.2 23
23 Anirban Lahiri 54.5 11
24 Phil Mickelson 55.7 45
25 Carlos Ortiz 56.9 30
26 Bryson DeChambeau 57.2 5
27 Dean Burmester 58.0 8
28 Thomas Pieters 58.6 16
29 Branden Grace 58.8 2
30 Bubba Watson 59.0 8
31 Richard Bland 59.6 23
32 Matt Jones 59.7 30
33 Charl Schwartzel 60.6 35
34 Lee Westwood 61.6 WD
35 Ian Poulter 61.7 18
36 Danny Lee 62.6 36
37 Eugenio Chacarra 63.4 5
38 Henrik Stenson 63.8 18
39 Scott Vincent 64.9 16
40 Bernd Wiesberger 65.3 18
41 Graeme McDowell 66.4 45
42 Chase Koepka 66.6 23
43 Laurie Canter 66.7 23
44 Martin Kaymer 68.9 40
45 James Piot 70.2 40
46 David Puig 70.4 36
47 Jed Morgan 71.0 47
48 Sihwan Kim 72.8 43
More | Less
May 15, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 331. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Soudal Open Power Ratings

May 8, 2023 Thomas Hawley ,

Belgium’s professional golf tournament, the Soudal Open, returned to the traditional stroke-play format last year after two seasons of a “knockout” format. We’re going traditional again this year, with Belgian citizen (but PGA Tour regular) Thomas Detry as the favorite. Detry is playing in Europe for the first time this year. In 11 events on the PGA Tour, he has one top-10 (Puntacana) and a best other finish of 24th in the Palmer among eight made cuts. At that, Detry dominates the field in terms of world ranking (per the Hawley Ratings) at 102nd, with Alexander Bjork next at 160th. Jorge Campillo comes in on a big upswing with five straight top-10 finishes in DP World events, including the win in Kenya and an eighth last week in the tour’s initial Eurpean stop of 2023 in Rome.

Thomas Detry
Thomas Detry
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Thomas Detry 53.0 7
2 Jorge Campillo 54.3 74
3 Adrian Otaegui 55.7 15
4 Matthew Southgate 62.9 4
5 Alexander Bjork 64.0 4
6 Thorbjorn Olesen 64.5 3
7 Jeff Winther 65.8 WD
8 Yannik Paul 65.8 DNP
9 Nacho Elvira 66.1 107
10 Ewen Ferguson 67.0 33
11 Maximilian Kieffer 67.2 41
12 Edoardo Molinari 67.4 59
13 Callum Shinkwin 67.5 120
14 Julien Brun 67.6 15
15 Fabrizio Zanotti 68.0 22
16 Marcus Helligkilde 68.4 107
17 Jason Scrivener 68.7 134
18 Marcel Siem 68.8 59
19 Richie Ramsay 69.1 7
20 Dale Whitnell 69.2 99
21 Justin Walters 69.5 50
22 Hennie du Plessis 69.6 38
23 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 69.6 120
24 Jazz Janewattananond 69.7 99
25 Sami Valimaki 69.9 85
26 Alex Fitzpatrick 70.0 74
27 JC Ritchie 70.1 85
28 Jeunghun Wang 70.2 127
29 Clement Sordet 70.3 85
30 Louis de Jager 70.4 134
31 Richard McEvoy 70.4 107
32 Oliver Bekker 70.6 85
33 Ashun Wu 70.7 41
34 Masahiro Kawamura 71.0 85
35 Connor Syme 71.0 59
36 Aaron Cockerill 71.1 10
37 Daniel Brown 71.1 28
38 Shubhankar Sharma 71.2 74
39 Mikko Korhonen 71.3 DNP
40 Marcus Armitage 71.3 28
41 Hurly Long 71.4 85
42 Jens Dantorp 71.7 2
43 Eddie Pepperell 71.7 22
44 Tom Lewis 71.7 56
45 Ryo Hisatsune 71.8 10
46 Andy Sullivan 71.9 134
47 Zander Lombard 72.1 41
48 Haotong Li 72.2 107
49 John Catlin 72.2 38
50 Marcus Kinhult 72.3 22
51 Alejandro Del Rey 72.3 67
52 Adrien Saddier 72.4 50
53 Renato Paratore 72.4 120
54 David Horsey 72.4 28
55 Alexander Levy 72.6 127
56 Ross Fisher 72.6 50
57 David Law 72.6 50
58 Daniel van Tonder 72.8 WD
59 Lukas Nemecz 72.8 33
60 Angel Hidalgo 72.9 15
61 Gregory Havret 72.9 15
62 James Morrison 72.9 7
63 Oliver Farr 73.0 DNP
64 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 73.1 15
65 Alexander Knappe 73.1 120
66 Daniel Gavins 73.1 65
67 Nick Bachem 73.1 59
68 Francesco Laporta 73.2 107
69 Rikuya Hoshino 73.3 67
70 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 73.4 144
71 Ricardo Gouveia 73.4 107
72 Soren Kjeldsen 73.5 33
73 Daan Huizing 73.5 DNP
74 Jeong Weon Ko 73.6 15
75 Dan Bradbury 73.7 10
76 Craig Howie 73.8 28
77 Wilco Nienaber 73.8 41
78 Santiago Tarrio Ben 73.8 50
79 Alejandro Canizares 73.9 DNP
80 Wil Besseling 73.9 99
81 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 74.1 56
82 Jack Senior 74.1 120
83 Sean Crocker 74.2 85
84 Brandon Stone 74.3 74
85 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 74.4 4
86 Victor Dubuisson 74.6 DNP
87 Simon Forsstrom 74.6 1
88 David Ravetto 74.6 67
89 Kristoffer Reitan 74.8 139
90 Andrew Wilson 74.8 10
91 Thomas Aiken 74.8 41
92 Chase Hanna 74.9 WD
93 Frederic LaCroix 74.9 33
94 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 74.9 74
95 Darius van Driel 75.1 22
96 Bryce Easton 75.1 99
97 Deon Germishuys 75.3 15
98 Robin Sciot-Siegrist 75.4 22
99 Lucas Bjerregaard 75.5 148
100 Martin Simonsen 75.6 85
101 Oliver Hundebol Jorgensen 75.6 107
102 Christoffer Bring 75.6 107
103 Daniel Hillier 75.8 99
104 Darren Fichardt 75.9 74
105 Maverick Antcliff 75.9 85
106 Niklas Lemke 76.1 74
107 Marc Warren 76.1 41
108 Kevin Hesbois 76.1 72
109 Christopher Mivis 76.2 151
110 Stephen Gallacher 76.2 134
111 Ricardo Santos 76.2 85
112 Andrea Pavan 76.2 DNP
113 Aguri Iwasaki 76.3 72
114 Max Schmitt 76.3 59
115 Rhys Enoch 76.3 99
116 Todd Clements 76.3 33
117 Joshua Lee 76.4 65
118 Yeongsu Kim 76.4 10
119 Garrick Porteous 76.5 107
120 John Murphy 76.6 28
121 Nicolas Colsaerts 76.6 107
122 Gunner Wiebe 76.6 70
123 John Parry 76.7 74
124 Thomas Bjorn 76.7 85
125 Manu Gandas 76.7 41
126 Pierre Pineau 76.8 85
127 Borja Virto Astudillo 76.8 74
128 Gary Hurley 76.9 144
129 Joel Stalter 77.2 120
130 Jeremy Freiburghaus 77.3 144
131 Gumundur Kristjansson 77.4 138
132 Emilio Cuartero Blanco 77.4 50
133 Blake Windred 77.4 144
134 Toby Tree 77.6 DNP
135 David Howell 77.6 127
136 Benjamin Rusch 77.6 DNP
137 Tristen Strydom 77.6 152
138 Pedro Figueiredo 77.7 22
139 Sam Hutsby 77.7 74
140 Velten Meyer 77.7 139
141 Gary Stal 77.7 99
142 Marco Penge 77.8 85
143 Mikael Lundberg 77.8 107
144 Felix Mory 77.8 41
145 Ugo Coussaud 77.9 59
146 Javier Sainz 77.9 120
147 Koen Kouwenaar 77.9 148
148 Nathan Cossement 77.9 127
149 Jarno Tollenaire 77.9 70
150 Hugo Duquaine 77.9 153
151 Charles Roeland 77.9 148
152 James Skeet 77.9 107
153 Lev Grinberg 77.9 74
154 Jean De Wouters 77.9 107
155 Alan De Bondt 77.9 41
156 Yente Van Doren 77.9 127
157 Kristof Ulenaers 77.9 56
158 James Meyer de Beco 77.9 139
159 Chengyao Ma 77.9 85
160 Tobias Eden 77.9 139
161 Mateusz Gradecki 77.9 99
162 OJ Farrell 77.9 127
163 Freddy Schott 78.0 127
164 John Axelsen 78.3 38
Pavan Sagoo late entry 143
More | Less
May 15, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 176. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Rankings (May 7, 2023)

May 8, 2023 Thomas Hawley

Patrick Cantlay is in his fourth week back at no. 1.
# Thru May 7, 2023 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Patrick Cantlay 43 2272 1
2 Scottie Scheffler 52 2254 2
3 Xander Schauffele 49 2077 4
4 Jon Rahm 46 2049 3
5 Rory McIlroy 45 1875 5
6 Sungjae Im 58 1708 6
7 Max Homa 51 1603 10
8 Justin Thomas 47 1597 7
9 Tyrrell Hatton 53 1503 12
10 Viktor Hovland 53 1497 9
11 Jordan Spieth 48 1476 8
12 Tony Finau 55 1441 11
13 Cameron Smith 43 1388 14
14 Will Zalatoris 42 1379 16
15 Matthew Fitzpatrick 53 1374 15
16 Dustin Johnson 38 1353 19
17 Sam Burns 53 1345 13
18 Collin Morikawa 51 1306 17
19 Jason Day 40 1300 18
20 Cameron Young 46 1281 20
21 Daniel Berger 23 1206 21
22 Talor Gooch 47 1181 22
23 Tom Kim 34 1170 25
24 Tommy Fleetwood 56 1166 31
25 Joaquin Niemann 50 1153 24
26 Rickie Fowler 43 1144 30
27 Sahith Theegala 59 1129 23
28 Corey Conners 55 1117 37
29 Russell Henley 44 1109 26
30 Hideki Matsuyama 46 1107 27
31 Adam Scott 44 1097 41
32 Matt Kuchar 45 1068 35
33 Shane Lowry 52 1066 28
34 Keegan Bradley 54 1053 32
35 Denny McCarthy 59 1042 42
36 Keith Mitchell 53 1031 33
37 Seamus Power 52 1028 40
38 Justin Rose 41 1027 36
39 Taylor Montgomery 27 1019 29
40 Adam Hadwin 53 1018 34
41 Taylor Moore 49 1006 39
42 Wyndham Clark 58 1003 49
43 Brian Harman 55 965 38
44 Tom Hoge 62 950 43
45 Patrick Reed 53 930 44
46 Mito Pereira 47 900 47
47 Chris Kirk 52 899 45
48 Brooks Koepka 42 897 46
49 Aaron Wise 44 893 48
50 Paul Casey 35 867 52
51 Si Woo Kim 59 865 50
52 Harold Varner 47 852 54
53 Billy Horschel 55 851 53
54 Cameron Davis 52 850 51
55 Gary Woodland 49 813 69
56 Harris English 45 812 83
57 Davis Riley 53 807 55
58 Abraham Ancer 48 792 57
59 KH Lee 56 779 75
60 Ben Griffin 24 777 56
61 Nick Taylor 55 773 59
62 Maverick McNealy 52 771 58
63 Cameron Tringale 49 771 60
64 Brendon Todd 52 766 84
65 Charles Howell 32 766 61
66 Sergio Garcia 45 762 62
67 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 56 745 66
68 Brendan Steele 44 740 68
69 Kurt Kitayama 54 738 63
70 Kevin Na 41 737 67
71 Andrew Putnam 59 729 64
72 JT Poston 57 727 65
73 Pat Perez 40 718 72
74 Matthew Wolff 37 701 73
75 Alex Noren 52 697 71
76 JJ Spaun 59 695 81
77 Justin Suh 29 692 70
78 Scott Stallings 56 690 74
79 Sebastian Munoz 50 683 77
80 Lucas Herbert 51 680 80
81 Marc Leishman 47 679 79
82 Beau Hossler 53 675 76
83 Louis Oosthuizen 39 675 78
84 Jason Kokrak 44 669 82
85 Adam Svensson 53 665 88
86 Emiliano Grillo 56 654 95
87 Hayden Buckley 51 643 85
88 Anirban Lahiri 44 632 90
89 Min Woo Lee 50 624 91
90 Patrick Rodgers 61 622 87
91 Mac Hughes 53 621 86
92 Joel Dahmen 52 610 89
93 Sam Ryder 60 603 93
94 Taylor Pendrith 44 602 92
95 Kevin Kisner 49 597 96
96 Matthew NeSmith 54 596 99
97 Peter Uihlein 37 592 98
98 SH Kim 27 586 94
99 Sepp Straka 64 581 97
100 Alex Smalley 54 579 114
101 Jhonattan Vegas 39 573 101
102 Thomas Detry 58 569 105
103 Bryson DeChambeau 35 563 104
104 Ryan Fox 54 559 106
105 Robby Shelton 35 557 100
106 Byeong Hun An 38 556 102
107 Aaron Rai 65 553 103
108 Brandon Wu 49 537 108
109 Adam Schenk 62 531 107
110 Mark Hubbard 56 531 127
111 Thomas Pieters 43 531 111
112 Branden Grace 51 529 110
113 Bubba Watson 26 527 115
114 Stephan Jaeger 54 523 128
115 Francesco Molinari 42 523 118
116 Lee Hodges 54 517 109
117 Carlos Ortiz 44 513 117
118 Matt Jones 48 510 122
119 Trey Mullinax 49 509 121
120 Phil Mickelson 31 509 120
121 Kevin Yu 19 506 123
122 Erik van Rooyen 48 504 116
123 Richard Bland 48 504 125
124 Ben Taylor 33 502 113
125 Dean Burmester 50 501 126
126 Eric Cole 25 500 112
127 Adrian Meronk 52 492 135
128 Danny Willett 52 489 124
129 Webb Simpson 41 488 119
130 Jimmy Walker 38 474 168
131 Chez Reavie 57 473 129
132 Ian Poulter 51 466 134
133 Nate Lashley 49 465 144
134 Lee Westwood 41 465 137
135 Michael Kim 33 465 217
136 David Lingmerth 45 463 136
137 Nick Hardy 46 462 130
138 Rasmus Hojgaard 48 457 132
139 Lanto Griffin 40 456 131
140 David Lipsky 54 455 133
141 Padraig Harrington 31 455 140
142 Charl Schwartzel 45 450 141
143 Troy Merritt 56 444 139
144 Davis Thompson 28 440 138
145 Kevin Streelman 56 437 162
146 John Huh 44 431 145
147 Sam Horsfield 42 429 146
148 Robert MacIntyre 52 426 142
149 Ryan Palmer 47 425 152
150 Patton Kizzire 57 418 143
151 Luke List 55 410 147
152 Victor Perez 47 407 154
153 Samuel Stevens 21 406 151
154 Peter Malnati 60 405 148
155 Michael Thompson 49 399 149
156 Dylan Frittelli 63 398 150
157 Jordan Smith 51 393 159
158 Sadom Kaewkanjana 20 387 157
159 Eugenio Chacarra 17 385 158
160 Alexander Bjork 41 383 173
161 Danny Lee 47 383 161
162 Adam Long 59 382 153
163 Russell Knox 59 374 160
164 Will Gordon 34 369 155
165 Harry Hall 28 368 156
166 Vincent Norrman 11 364 165
167 CT Pan 41 360 163
168 Bernd Wiesberger 45 359 170
169 Joseph Bramlett 63 356 175
170 Ben Martin 49 355 164
171 Doug Ghim 53 355 189
172 Matt Wallace 61 352 167
173 Dylan Wu 49 352 205
174 Martin Laird 48 349 166
175 Henrik Stenson 43 347 176
176 Zach Johnson 42 345 169
177 Lucas Glover 54 345 172
178 Cameron Champ 45 342 171
179 Garrick Higgo 58 339 174
180 Thorbjorn Olesen 45 338 179
181 Tyler Duncan 56 337 177
182 Adri Arnaus 50 333 178
183 Zac Blair 15 332 184
184 Graeme McDowell 38 329 183
185 Andrew Novak 46 329 182
186 Callum Tarren 49 324 180
187 Chase Koepka 18 324 185
188 Nicolai Hojgaard 54 321 202
189 Cameron Percy 39 320 188
190 Stewart Cink 50 319 181
191 Pablo Larrazabal 43 313 194
192 Scott Piercy 58 312 186
193 Scott Vincent 30 311 196
194 Charley Hoffman 50 310 190
195 Adrian Otaegui 57 310 191
196 MJ Daffue 30 308 200
197 Sean O’Hair 39 307 197
198 Chesson Hadley 57 304 192
199 Aaron Baddeley 40 304 198
200 Greyson Sigg 56 303 193
201 Vincent Whaley 44 302 199
202 Matthias Schwab 57 299 195
203 Yannik Paul 39 299 207
204 Harry Higgs 59 297 204
205 Callum Shinkwin 43 295 219
206 Laurie Canter 47 290 209
207 James Hahn 48 290 203
208 Austin Smotherman 48 288 206
209 Andy Ogletree 8 287 211
210 Hudson Swafford 42 287 210
211 Antoine Rozner 55 287 214
212 Ryan Gerard 11 287 187
213 Carson Young 22 285 201
214 Akshay Bhatia 22 285 225
215 Chad Ramey 52 285 223
216 Fabrizio Zanotti 40 279 208
217 Justin Lower 49 277 212
218 Erik Barnes 22 274 218
219 Jorge Campillo 60 273 233
220 Christopher Gotterup 21 269 221
221 Julien Brun 35 267 215
222 Jason Scrivener 43 267 216
223 Pierceson Coody 15 264 213
224 Martin Kaymer 29 262 227
225 Doc Redman 54 262 220
226 Romain Langasque 56 262 247
227 Justin Harding 45 261 228
228 Andrew Johnston 13 259 229
229 Thriston Lawrence 44 258 224
230 Richard Mansell 43 258 222
231 Alejandro Tosti 11 258 245
232 Kramer Hickok 56 257 238
233 Cody Gribble 14 257 232
234 Matthieu Pavon 52 256 231
235 Grant Forrest 52 252 234
236 Hennie du Plessis 33 249 226
237 Robert Streb 59 247 230
238 Takumi Kanaya 39 244 242
239 Marcel Schneider 43 243 235
240 Maximilian Kieffer 47 242 264
241 Scott Jamieson 49 238 244
242 Ryan Moore 36 237 237
243 Guido Migliozzi 53 237 239
244 Harrison Endycott 23 237 243
245 Oliver Bekker 42 237 241
246 Ryan Armour 51 235 246
247 Marcus Helligkilde 33 234 240
248 Alex Fitzpatrick 11 233 249
249 Jamie Donaldson 43 232 251
250 Nathan Kimsey 8 232 252
251 Jeunghun Wang 12 227 236
252 Tyler McCumber 20 225 256
253 Edoardo Molinari 51 224 250
254 Dale Whitnell 57 223 253
255 Ashun Wu 45 223 259
256 Johannes Veerman 49 220 254
257 Nico Echavarria 20 219 248
258 James Piot 21 218 260
259 Marcus Armitage 52 217 290
260 Sami Valimaki 47 217 276
261 Shubhankar Sharma 52 217 266
262 Brice Garnett 57 217 261
263 Rory Sabbatini 43 216 255
264 Rafa Cabrera Bello 56 213 263
265 Ewen Ferguson 40 213 258
266 Matthias Schmid 52 211 268
267 Sebastian Soderberg 52 210 299
268 Phachara Khongwatmai 17 210 269
269 Satoshi Kodaira 50 209 270
270 Martin Trainer 53 208 272
271 Henrik Norlander 56 208 279
272 Travis Smyth 16 208 274
273 Keita Nakajima 19 207 271
274 Sang-hyun Park 13 206 278
275 Joost Luiten 46 205 265
276 Luke Donald 48 204 267
277 Ockie Strydom 15 203 257
278 Brandt Snedeker 33 203 280
279 Connor Syme 51 199 275
280 Eddie Pepperell 46 199 316
281 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 16 199 262
282 Clement Sordet 23 198 349
283 David Puig 11 197 288
284 Kevin Chappell 36 197 289
285 Hank Lebioda 51 197 283
286 Masahiro Kawamura 52 196 281
287 Jayden Schaper 15 194 294
288 Hurly Long 40 194 282
289 Wade Ormsby 41 193 293
290 Austin Eckroat 30 193 277
291 Ryo Hisatsune 32 193 312
292 Calum Hill 29 193 273
293 Matthew Jordan 56 192 284
294 Richie Ramsay 51 192 286
295 Mikko Korhonen 43 191 285
296 Kevin Tway 60 190 287
297 Brian Stuard 63 190 295
298 Michael Gligic 58 184 302
299 Marcel Siem 48 183 307
300 Austin Cook 59 183 297
301 William McGirt 36 183 303
302 Matthew Southgate 56 182 306
303 Cole Hammer 20 182 301
304 Tyson Alexander 24 182 292
305 Chris Stroud 26 181 304
306 Brent Grant 27 181 296
307 Andy Sullivan 52 180 298
308 Daniel Brown 11 179 291
309 Jinichiro Kozuma 29 179 308
310 Haotong Li 38 179 300
311 Bi-o Kim 14 177 311
312 Jed Morgan 23 177 313
313 Jazz Janewattananond 57 175 305
314 Steve Lewton 12 173 315
315 Marcus Kinhult 42 173 317
316 George Coetzee 45 172 309
317 Jeff Winther 46 171 310
318 Niklas Norgaard Moller 39 169 328
319 Zander Lombard 58 168 325
320 Richy Werenski 59 168 318
321 David Law 53 167 320
322 Seung-yul Noh 41 167 319
323 Angel Hidalgo 34 166 314
324 Estanislao Goya 20 163 326
325 Tapio Pulkkanen 51 162 341
326 Aaron Cockerill 46 162 347
327 Turk Pettit 17 161 327
328 Julien Guerrier 53 159 373
329 Gavin Green 55 158 324
330 Joakim Lagergren 52 158 321
331 Alejandro Del Rey 15 158 322
332 Lukas Nemecz 37 157 323
333 Kelly Kraft 50 155 331
334 Carl Yuan 19 155 334
335 Kalle Samooja 49 155 369
336 Ross Fisher 51 154 329
337 Daniel Gavins 52 153 333
338 Kyong-jun Moon 9 152 339
339 Paul Waring 39 151 332
340 Paul Haley 22 150 330
341 Sihwan Kim 39 150 338
342 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 52 150 335
343 John Catlin 52 149 340
344 Max McGreevy 53 148 337
345 Daniel van Tonder 56 148 383
346 Matthew Baldwin 24 146 368
347 JC Ritchie 29 146 350
348 Dan Bradbury 13 145 356
349 Vaughn Taylor 34 145 345
350 Jonathan Byrd 39 144 346
351 Alexander Knappe 18 144 336
352 Brandon Matthews 25 144 343
353 Nick Watney 55 141 342
354 Keenan Davidse 10 141 351
355 Ryosuke Kinoshita 33 140 352
356 Tom Lewis 33 140 353
357 Louis de Jager 40 139 344
358 Stephen Stallings 9 139 354
359 Francesco Laporta 50 137 348
360 Anthony Quayle 23 136 361
361 Rikuya Hoshino 34 136 357
362 Kyle Westmoreland 23 135 362
363 Paul Barjon 40 135 360
364 Patrick Flavin 19 133 363
365 Bill Haas 51 133 365
366 Espen Kofstad 30 133 367
367 Augusto Nunez 21 133 364
368 Wil Besseling 51 130 382
369 Kazuki Higa 36 129 359
370 Roger Sloan 48 129 366
371 Jacques Kruyswijk 34 129 355
372 Justin Walters 53 129 374
373 Chase Seiffert 39 128 371
374 Shaun Norris 40 128 370
375 Ricardo Gouveia 31 127 372
376 Tom McKibbin 20 126 358
377 Mikumu Horikawa 27 126 375
378 Joachim B Hansen 49 126 376
379 Santiago Tarrio Ben 51 125 400
380 Trevor Werbylo 23 124 380
381 Kevin Roy 23 121 385
382 Jack Senior 43 120 386
383 Wilco Nienaber 42 119 387
384 Martin Contini 8 119 388
385 Sean Crocker 53 119 381
386 Jeong Weon Ko 14 119 379
387 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 33 118 378
388 Berry Henson 19 118 389
389 Ian Snyman 13 117 390
390 Yuki Inamori 30 116 391
391 Daniel Young 9 115 399
392 Sung Kang 54 115 392
393 Craig Howie 30 115 394
394 Jaco Prinsloo 11 115 393
395 Nick Bachem 12 113 377
396 Hiroshi Iwata 26 112 396
397 Adrien Saddier 25 112 384
398 Jens Dantorp 25 112 398
399 Zecheng Dou 24 110 403
400 Ryan Brehm 48 110 402
More | Less

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Wells Fargo Championship Power Ratings

May 1, 2023 Thomas Hawley ,
Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Patrick Cantlay -8.1 21
2 Xander Schauffele 0.0 2
3 Rory McIlroy 1.1 47
4 Sungjae Im 14.4 8
5 Max Homa 14.8 8
6 Jordan Spieth 15.1 135
7 Viktor Hovland 18.8 43
8 Jason Day 20.0 69
9 Justin Thomas 23.5 14
10 Sam Burns 23.5 69
11 Tony Finau 24.3 23
12 Matthew Fitzpatrick 24.6 35
13 Cameron Young 27.8 59
14 Collin Morikawa 28.6 114
15 Tyrrell Hatton 30.2 3
16 Rickie Fowler 30.5 14
17 Sahith Theegala 32.2 56
18 Taylor Moore 34.7 27
19 Tom Kim 34.9 23
20 Matt Kuchar 35.7 23
21 Tommy Fleetwood 36.3 5
22 Cameron Davis 37.1 59
23 Corey Conners 37.9 8
24 Shane Lowry 37.9 90
25 Brian Harman 39.6 114
26 Keegan Bradley 40.0 35
27 Taylor Montgomery 40.1 129
28 Keith Mitchell 40.2 59
29 Adam Hadwin 40.8 69
30 Denny McCarthy 42.2 8
31 Chris Kirk 42.8 56
32 Wyndham Clark 43.9 1
33 Adam Scott 44.3 5
34 Seamus Power 45.1 18
35 Si Woo Kim 47.0 43
36 Davis Riley 48.0 141
37 JT Poston 48.0 81
38 Patrick Rodgers 49.6 124
39 Ben Griffin 49.8 98
40 Beau Hossler 49.9 47
41 Andrew Putnam 50.1 WD
42 Gary Woodland 50.7 14
43 Kurt Kitayama 51.1 129
44 Hayden Buckley 51.5 43
45 KH Lee 51.9 8
46 Emiliano Grillo 51.9 23
47 JJ Spaun 53.3 27
48 Justin Suh 53.9 59
49 Alex Noren 54.0 90
50 Harris English 54.0 3
51 Mac Hughes 54.4 114
52 Adam Svensson 54.5 27
53 Sam Ryder 54.8 141
54 Joel Dahmen 55.2 98
55 Brendon Todd 55.2 8
56 Byeong Hun An 55.5 98
57 Adam Schenk 56.2 69
58 SH Kim 56.2 114
59 Chez Reavie 56.2 90
60 Webb Simpson 57.0 64
61 Taylor Pendrith 57.2 124
62 Aaron Rai 57.5 69
63 Matthew NeSmith 57.9 35
64 Sepp Straka 58.1 114
65 Nick Hardy 58.5 68
66 Mark Hubbard 58.8 27
67 Robby Shelton 58.8 81
68 Lee Hodges 59.1 81
69 Danny Willett 59.3 90
70 David Lingmerth 59.5 47
71 Stephan Jaeger 59.6 27
72 Brandon Wu 59.9 DNP
73 Eric Cole 59.9 81
74 Ben Taylor 60.7 98
75 Alex Smalley 61.2 18
76 Erik van Rooyen 61.3 98
77 Lanto Griffin 61.4 141
78 Francesco Molinari 61.5 40
79 David Lipsky 61.8 114
80 Michael Thompson 61.9 98
81 Luke List 62.0 141
82 Jimmy Walker 62.1 14
83 Trey Mullinax 62.3 47
84 Harry Hall 63.2 98
85 Troy Merritt 63.2 90
86 Davis Thompson 63.3 81
87 Nate Lashley 63.7 27
88 Patton Kizzire 63.9 147
89 Ben Martin 64.1 124
90 Peter Malnati 64.6 WD
91 Will Gordon 64.8 81
92 CT Pan 65.0 69
93 Kevin Streelman 65.1 18
94 Joseph Bramlett 65.3 40
95 Dylan Frittelli 65.5 129
96 Ryan Palmer 65.6 35
97 Adam Long 65.6 81
98 Carson Young 65.7 69
99 Russell Knox 65.9 98
100 Matt Wallace 66.2 98
101 Lucas Glover 66.5 69
102 Zach Johnson 66.5 135
103 Zac Blair 66.9 47
104 Cameron Champ 66.9 98
105 Martin Laird 67.0 98
106 Tyler Duncan 67.1 141
107 Garrick Higgo 67.2 90
108 MJ Daffue 67.4 47
109 Ryan Gerard 67.4 135
110 Scott Piercy 67.7 69
111 Stewart Cink 67.8 67
112 Matthias Schwab 67.9 148
113 Greyson Sigg 68.1 98
114 Callum Tarren 68.1 64
115 Austin Smotherman 68.4 124
116 Michael Kim 68.4 7
117 Pierceson Coody 68.5 148
118 James Hahn 68.5 69
119 Akshay Bhatia 68.5 43
120 Doug Ghim 68.6 27
121 Chesson Hadley 68.8 81
122 Chad Ramey 69.5 35
123 Justin Lower 69.8 69
124 Robert Streb 70.1 69
125 Brice Garnett 70.4 DNP
126 Rory Sabbatini 70.5 141
127 Doc Redman 70.5 114
128 Ryan Moore 70.5 98
129 Kramer Hickok 70.6 40
130 Ryan Armour 71.0 56
131 Harrison Endycott 71.1 59
132 Nico Echavarria 71.3 81
133 Henrik Norlander 71.4 47
134 Austin Eckroat 71.4 64
135 Austin Cook 71.7 148
136 Matthias Schmid 71.8 DNP
137 Brent Grant 72.5 135
138 Tyson Alexander 72.5 148
139 Kevin Tway 72.6 129
140 Paul Haley 72.8 114
141 Estanislao Goya 73.1 DNP
142 Augusto Nunez 73.5 DNP
143 Richy Werenski 73.5 90
144 Nick Watney 73.7 90
145 Kelly Kraft 74.4 135
146 Max McGreevy 74.5 98
147 Jason Dufner 75.1 98
148 Zecheng Dou 75.2 DNP
149 Jim Herman 75.5 135
150 Andrew Landry 75.6 152
151 Scott Harrington 75.8 DNP
152 Ryan Brehm 75.9 DNP
153 JB Holmes 77.6 DNP
154 Austin Greaser 77.8 114
155 Marcus Byrd 77.9 129
156 Morgan Deneen 77.9 124
157 Quinn Riley 77.9 154
158 Sam Stevens 77.9 47
Dylan Wu late entry 21
Trace Crowe late entry 29
Alejandro Tosti late entry 48
Willie Mack late entry 106
Trevor Cone late entry 115
Ryan Cole late entry 133
Danny Guise late entry 153
More | Less
May 8, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 232. The average is 160. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

A look at the Wells Fargo Championship

May 1, 2023 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Rory McIlroy 0.859
Brian Harman 0.665
Rickie Fowler 0.515
Joel Dahmen 0.513
Luke List 0.511
Jason Day 0.464
JT Poston 0.455
Keith Mitchell 0.454

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Patrick Cantlay 1 2276.5
Xander Schauffele 4 1970.0
Rory McIlroy 5 1927.0
Sungjae Im 6 1639.5
Justin Thomas 7 1540.6
Jordan Spieth 8 1526.8
Viktor Hovland 9 1526.1
Max Homa 10 1519.2

Read more

DS Automobiles Italian Open Power Ratings

May 1, 2023 Thomas Hawley ,

Robert MacIntyre
Robert MacIntyre
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Robert MacIntyre 52.0 WD
2 Rasmus Hojgaard 60.3 47
3 Jordan Smith 60.6 16
4 Adrian Meronk 61.4 1
5 Victor Perez 61.6 9
6 Sam Horsfield 62.7 DNP
7 Thorbjorn Olesen 63.3 40
8 Alexander Bjork 64.9 4
9 Nicolai Hojgaard 65.8 5
10 Yannik Paul 65.9 23
11 Jorge Campillo 66.1 8
12 Adrian Otaegui 66.4 40
13 Adri Arnaus 66.4 112
14 Jason Scrivener 67.1 112
15 Antoine Rozner 67.2 21
16 Grant Forrest 67.6 32
17 Fabrizio Zanotti 67.8 91
18 Richard Mansell 68.0 70
19 Callum Shinkwin 68.0 9
20 Marcus Helligkilde 68.0 136
21 Guido Migliozzi 68.3 57
22 Edoardo Molinari 68.3 100
23 Julien Brun 68.4 72
24 Scott Jamieson 68.5 47
25 Dale Whitnell 68.6 122
26 Joost Luiten 69.0 67
27 Thriston Lawrence 69.0 122
28 Matthieu Pavon 69.0 32
29 Jeunghun Wang 69.1 122
30 Hennie du Plessis 69.2 112
31 Mikko Korhonen 69.2 WD
32 Marcel Schneider 69.3 91
33 Ockie Strydom 69.4 141
34 Ewen Ferguson 69.5 100
35 Romain Langasque 69.6 2
36 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 69.9 100
37 Ashun Wu 69.9 32
38 Oliver Bekker 70.1 73
39 Sami Valimaki 70.3 21
40 Maximilian Kieffer 70.4 5
41 Daniel Brown 70.6 57
42 Rafa Cabrera Bello 70.7 40
43 Masahiro Kawamura 70.7 81
44 Eddie Pepperell 70.7 9
45 Calum Hill 70.8 81
46 Hurly Long 71.2 WD
47 Gavin Green 71.2 91
48 Shubhankar Sharma 71.2 26
49 Marcus Armitage 71.5 9
50 Jazz Janewattananond 71.6 57
51 Matthew Jordan 71.6 112
52 Johannes Veerman 71.7 100
53 Sebastian Soderberg 71.8 9
54 Matthew Southgate 71.8 32
55 Ross Fisher 71.9 67
56 Haotong Li 72.0 136
57 Tapio Pulkkanen 72.0 16
58 Clement Sordet 72.0 9
59 Connor Syme 72.1 91
60 Alejandro Del Rey 72.1 47
61 Lukas Nemecz 72.1 57
62 Jacques Kruyswijk 72.2 112
63 John Catlin 72.2 40
64 George Coetzee 72.3 131
65 Ryo Hisatsune 72.3 16
66 Jeff Winther 72.3 112
67 Zander Lombard 72.3 26
68 Andy Sullivan 72.4 73
69 Angel Hidalgo 72.4 64
70 Joakim Lagergren 72.5 145
71 Niklas Norgaard Moller 72.5 23
72 Marcel Siem 72.5 26
73 Alexander Knappe 72.6 112
74 Luke Donald 72.6 100
75 Louis de Jager 72.7 66
76 Francesco Laporta 72.7 131
77 Daniel Gavins 72.7 57
78 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 72.9 73
79 JC Ritchie 72.9 32
80 Julien Guerrier 72.9 3
81 Paul Waring 72.9 131
82 Richie Ramsay 73.0 53
83 Aaron Cockerill 73.1 16
84 Matthew Baldwin 73.2 26
85 Kalle Samooja 73.2 9
86 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 73.2 141
87 Rikuya Hoshino 73.3 DNP
88 Soren Kjeldsen 73.3 69
89 Jeong Weon Ko 73.4 53
90 Adrien Saddier 73.5 136
91 Tom McKibbin 73.5 112
92 Dan Bradbury 73.5 32
93 Daniel van Tonder 73.5 5
94 Justin Walters 73.6 40
95 Nick Bachem 73.6 91
96 Kazuki Higa 73.7 122
97 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 73.7 145
98 Wilco Nienaber 73.8 DNP
99 Wil Besseling 73.9 26
100 James Morrison 74.0 122
101 Jens Dantorp 74.0 47
102 Santiago Tarrio Ben 74.0 16
103 Sean Crocker 74.1 53
104 David Horsey 74.2 91
105 Renato Paratore 74.3 71
106 Nacho Elvira 74.3 91
107 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 74.3 53
108 Victor Dubuisson 74.3 WD
109 Oliver Wilson 74.4 136
110 Chase Hanna 74.5 100
111 Darius van Driel 74.5 100
112 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 74.5 32
113 David Ravetto 74.7 40
114 Simon Forsstrom 74.7 32
115 Andrew Wilson 74.8 DNP
116 Daniel Hillier 74.9 91
117 Deon Germishuys 75.1 112
118 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 75.1 112
119 Martin Simonsen 75.4 73
120 Christoffer Bring 75.4 73
121 Bryce Easton 75.5 23
122 Marc Warren 75.9 100
123 Nicolas Colsaerts 76.0 81
124 Niklas Lemke 76.1 DNP
125 Filippo Celli 76.1 81
126 Stephen Gallacher 76.1 73
127 Joshua Lee 76.2 73
128 Yeongsu Kim 76.2 100
129 Ricardo Santos 76.2 DNP
130 Aguri Iwasaki 76.3 DNP
131 Lorenzo Gagli 76.3 149
132 John Murphy 76.4 136
133 Gregory Havret 76.4 122
134 Gunner Wiebe 76.5 81
135 John Parry 76.5 122
136 Garrick Porteous 76.5 57
137 Manu Gandas 76.6 131
138 Robin Sciot-Siegrist 76.6 52
139 Thomas Bjorn 76.6 141
140 Oliver Hundebol Jorgensen 76.7 100
141 Gary Hurley 76.7 81
142 Joel Stalter 76.9 WD
143 Tristen Strydom 77.0 DNP
144 Alexander Levy 77.0 47
145 Pedro Figueiredo 77.2 57
146 Gary Stal 77.3 81
147 Jeremy Freiburghaus 77.3 151
148 Gumundur Kristjansson 77.3 145
149 John Axelsen 77.5 73
150 Sam Hutsby 77.6 81
151 Freddy Schott 77.7 40
152 Stefano Mazzoli 77.8 131
153 Andrea Romano 77.9 122
154 Aaron Zemmer 77.9 64
155 Marco Florioli 77.9 100
156 Pietro Bovari 77.9 81
157 Gregorio De Leo 77.9 145
158 Emanuele Canonica 77.9 81
159 Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 77.9 100
160 Enrico di Nitto 77.9 91
161 Andrea Saracino 77.9 141
162 Chengyao Ma 77.9 150
163 Tobias Eden 77.9 122
164 Todd Clements 79.1 26
More | Less
May 8, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 149. The average is 160. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Rankings (Apr. 30, 2023)

May 1, 2023 Thomas Hawley

Patrick Cantlay is in his third week back at no. 1.
# Thru Apr. 30, 2023 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Patrick Cantlay 42 2277 1
2 Scottie Scheffler 53 2242 2
3 Jon Rahm 47 2043 3
4 Xander Schauffele 48 1970 4
5 Rory McIlroy 44 1927 5
6 Sungjae Im 57 1640 6
7 Justin Thomas 46 1541 7
8 Jordan Spieth 48 1527 8
9 Viktor Hovland 52 1526 9
10 Max Homa 50 1519 10
11 Tony Finau 54 1425 11
12 Tyrrell Hatton 52 1394 13
13 Sam Burns 53 1389 14
14 Cameron Smith 43 1383 15
15 Matthew Fitzpatrick 53 1377 16
16 Will Zalatoris 43 1364 18
17 Collin Morikawa 50 1354 17
18 Jason Day 40 1352 19
19 Dustin Johnson 38 1351 12
20 Cameron Young 45 1317 20
21 Daniel Berger 24 1204 21
22 Talor Gooch 48 1180 22
23 Sahith Theegala 58 1151 23
24 Joaquin Niemann 50 1145 25
25 Tom Kim 33 1143 24
26 Russell Henley 44 1106 26
27 Hideki Matsuyama 47 1104 27
28 Shane Lowry 51 1099 28
29 Taylor Montgomery 26 1075 29
30 Rickie Fowler 43 1075 30
31 Tommy Fleetwood 55 1059 32
32 Keegan Bradley 53 1057 31
33 Keith Mitchell 53 1054 33
34 Adam Hadwin 52 1052 34
35 Matt Kuchar 45 1029 37
36 Justin Rose 41 1029 35
37 Corey Conners 54 1028 36
38 Brian Harman 54 994 38
39 Taylor Moore 48 992 39
40 Seamus Power 52 985 40
41 Adam Scott 43 962 41
42 Denny McCarthy 58 953 42
43 Tom Hoge 63 948 43
44 Patrick Reed 53 931 44
45 Chris Kirk 51 919 45
46 Brooks Koepka 43 899 50
47 Mito Pereira 47 898 48
48 Aaron Wise 45 893 47
49 Wyndham Clark 58 877 49
50 Si Woo Kim 59 875 51
51 Cameron Davis 51 873 52
52 Paul Casey 35 870 46
53 Billy Horschel 55 848 53
54 Harold Varner 47 848 54
55 Davis Riley 52 827 56
56 Ben Griffin 23 821 57
57 Abraham Ancer 48 795 55
58 Maverick McNealy 52 774 58
59 Nick Taylor 55 772 59
60 Cameron Tringale 49 770 60
61 Charles Howell 33 762 70
62 Sergio Garcia 46 762 72
63 Kurt Kitayama 53 757 61
64 Andrew Putnam 59 750 64
65 JT Poston 56 743 71
66 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 56 742 68
67 Kevin Na 41 737 65
68 Brendan Steele 44 734 66
69 Gary Woodland 48 734 62
70 Justin Suh 28 723 73
71 Alex Noren 52 722 63
72 Pat Perez 41 718 67
73 Matthew Wolff 37 703 69
74 Scott Stallings 57 687 77
75 KH Lee 56 686 76
76 Beau Hossler 53 683 83
77 Sebastian Munoz 51 681 74
78 Louis Oosthuizen 39 680 75
79 Marc Leishman 48 680 78
80 Lucas Herbert 51 678 79
81 JJ Spaun 59 669 81
82 Jason Kokrak 44 669 86
83 Harris English 45 665 80
84 Brendon Todd 51 660 82
85 Hayden Buckley 50 648 84
86 Mac Hughes 52 646 85
87 Patrick Rodgers 61 639 92
88 Adam Svensson 52 638 88
89 Joel Dahmen 51 634 87
90 Anirban Lahiri 45 625 90
91 Min Woo Lee 51 623 91
92 Taylor Pendrith 43 621 89
93 Sam Ryder 60 619 93
94 SH Kim 26 618 94
95 Emiliano Grillo 55 614 101
96 Kevin Kisner 49 594 96
97 Sepp Straka 64 593 97
98 Peter Uihlein 38 590 104
99 Matthew NeSmith 53 585 99
100 Robby Shelton 34 580 95
101 Jhonattan Vegas 40 578 100
102 Byeong Hun An 37 577 102
103 Aaron Rai 64 568 98
104 Bryson DeChambeau 36 567 103
105 Thomas Detry 59 567 105
106 Ryan Fox 54 557 106
107 Adam Schenk 62 547 109
108 Brandon Wu 49 535 126
109 Lee Hodges 53 531 107
110 Branden Grace 51 530 108
111 Thomas Pieters 44 528 112
112 Eric Cole 24 528 140
113 Ben Taylor 33 528 135
114 Alex Smalley 53 525 110
115 Bubba Watson 26 524 111
116 Erik van Rooyen 48 521 113
117 Carlos Ortiz 45 513 118
118 Francesco Molinari 41 512 122
119 Webb Simpson 40 512 116
120 Phil Mickelson 31 511 125
121 Trey Mullinax 48 511 119
122 Matt Jones 48 507 115
123 Kevin Yu 19 507 120
124 Danny Willett 52 504 121
125 Richard Bland 49 504 114
126 Dean Burmester 51 500 117
127 Mark Hubbard 56 499 128
128 Stephan Jaeger 53 492 133
129 Chez Reavie 56 486 124
130 Nick Hardy 45 479 130
131 Lanto Griffin 39 477 123
132 Rasmus Hojgaard 48 470 127
133 David Lipsky 53 469 129
134 Ian Poulter 51 469 131
135 Adrian Meronk 52 468 134
136 David Lingmerth 45 467 136
137 Lee Westwood 42 464 132
138 Davis Thompson 27 462 138
139 Troy Merritt 56 460 139
140 Padraig Harrington 32 451 141
141 Charl Schwartzel 46 451 137
142 Robert MacIntyre 52 441 144
143 Patton Kizzire 57 431 142
144 Nate Lashley 49 428 145
145 John Huh 45 427 147
146 Sam Horsfield 43 425 148
147 Luke List 55 424 143
148 Peter Malnati 59 413 146
149 Michael Thompson 48 411 150
150 Dylan Frittelli 62 409 149
151 Samuel Stevens 21 405 151
152 Ryan Palmer 47 405 152
153 Adam Long 58 393 161
154 Victor Perez 46 389 155
155 Will Gordon 34 388 164
156 Harry Hall 27 387 179
157 Sadom Kaewkanjana 20 386 156
158 Eugenio Chacarra 17 386 170
159 Jordan Smith 51 384 154
160 Russell Knox 59 382 158
161 Danny Lee 48 380 157
162 Kevin Streelman 55 379 153
163 CT Pan 40 378 159
164 Ben Martin 49 366 163
165 Vincent Norrman 11 365 201
166 Martin Laird 48 362 160
167 Matt Wallace 60 361 162
168 Jimmy Walker 38 360 186
169 Zach Johnson 41 360 168
170 Bernd Wiesberger 46 358 165
171 Cameron Champ 45 356 194
172 Lucas Glover 53 356 166
173 Alexander Bjork 41 353 172
174 Garrick Higgo 57 348 167
175 Joseph Bramlett 63 347 190
176 Henrik Stenson 43 346 171
177 Tyler Duncan 56 345 175
178 Adri Arnaus 50 343 174
179 Thorbjorn Olesen 45 343 176
180 Callum Tarren 48 335 173
181 Stewart Cink 49 330 181
182 Andrew Novak 46 329 177
183 Graeme McDowell 38 327 178
184 Zac Blair 14 325 185
185 Chase Koepka 18 324 169
186 Scott Piercy 58 322 183
187 Ryan Gerard 10 320 195
188 Cameron Percy 40 318 180
189 Doug Ghim 53 317 182
190 Charley Hoffman 50 314 184
191 Adrian Otaegui 57 314 192
192 Chesson Hadley 57 314 191
193 Greyson Sigg 55 313 204
194 Pablo Larrazabal 44 310 207
195 Matthias Schwab 57 308 188
196 Scott Vincent 30 308 237
197 Sean O’Hair 40 307 187
198 Aaron Baddeley 41 303 198
199 Vincent Whaley 45 302 200
200 MJ Daffue 30 302 189
201 Carson Young 21 300 235
202 Nicolai Hojgaard 53 300 203
203 James Hahn 48 299 199
204 Harry Higgs 60 299 193
205 Dylan Wu 48 297 221
206 Austin Smotherman 47 296 238
207 Yannik Paul 38 295 197
208 Fabrizio Zanotti 40 290 202
209 Laurie Canter 48 289 206
210 Hudson Swafford 43 288 205
211 Andy Ogletree 8 287 208
212 Justin Lower 48 285 209
213 Pierceson Coody 15 285 196
214 Antoine Rozner 55 281 211
215 Julien Brun 34 280 212
216 Jason Scrivener 43 278 214
217 Michael Kim 33 277 224
218 Erik Barnes 22 275 218
219 Callum Shinkwin 43 272 219
220 Doc Redman 54 270 213
221 Christopher Gotterup 21 269 210
222 Richard Mansell 43 268 216
223 Chad Ramey 51 267 222
224 Thriston Lawrence 43 266 223
225 Akshay Bhatia 21 266 341
226 Hennie du Plessis 32 261 226
227 Martin Kaymer 30 260 217
228 Justin Harding 46 259 231
229 Andrew Johnston 14 259 228
230 Robert Streb 58 257 229
231 Matthieu Pavon 52 256 225
232 Cody Gribble 14 255 215
233 Jorge Campillo 60 255 243
234 Grant Forrest 52 252 230
235 Marcel Schneider 43 252 232
236 Jeunghun Wang 11 250 249
237 Ryan Moore 36 247 242
238 Kramer Hickok 56 246 236
239 Guido Migliozzi 53 246 241
240 Marcus Helligkilde 32 245 260
241 Oliver Bekker 41 245 239
242 Takumi Kanaya 39 245 240
243 Harrison Endycott 22 244 227
244 Scott Jamieson 49 242 255
245 Alejandro Tosti 10 240 466
246 Ryan Armour 51 239 234
247 Romain Langasque 56 234 251
248 Nico Echavarria 19 234 233
249 Alex Fitzpatrick 11 233 220
250 Edoardo Molinari 51 233 246
251 Jamie Donaldson 44 231 247
252 Nathan Kimsey 8 231 248
253 Dale Whitnell 57 230 250
254 Johannes Veerman 49 229 244
255 Rory Sabbatini 43 227 253
256 Tyler McCumber 20 226 254
257 Ockie Strydom 14 223 258
258 Ewen Ferguson 39 222 256
259 Ashun Wu 45 222 252
260 James Piot 21 220 245
261 Brice Garnett 58 217 269
262 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 15 216 263
263 Rafa Cabrera Bello 56 215 257
264 Maximilian Kieffer 47 213 268
265 Joost Luiten 45 212 295
266 Shubhankar Sharma 52 212 261
267 Luke Donald 48 212 267
268 Matthias Schmid 52 210 262
269 Phachara Khongwatmai 17 210 272
270 Satoshi Kodaira 51 209 264
271 Keita Nakajima 19 209 271
272 Martin Trainer 54 208 265
273 Calum Hill 29 208 259
274 Travis Smyth 16 207 275
275 Connor Syme 51 206 277
276 Sami Valimaki 47 206 280
277 Austin Eckroat 29 205 273
278 Sang-hyun Park 13 205 337
279 Henrik Norlander 55 205 266
280 Brandt Snedeker 34 205 276
281 Masahiro Kawamura 52 203 283
282 Hurly Long 39 201 288
283 Hank Lebioda 52 200 270
284 Matthew Jordan 56 199 279
285 Mikko Korhonen 43 199 285
286 Richie Ramsay 51 198 278
287 Kevin Tway 60 197 282
288 David Puig 11 197 284
289 Kevin Chappell 37 197 310
290 Marcus Armitage 52 196 281
291 Daniel Brown 10 196 286
292 Tyson Alexander 23 195 274
293 Wade Ormsby 42 194 291
294 Jayden Schaper 15 194 296
295 Brian Stuard 64 190 290
296 Brent Grant 26 190 287
297 Austin Cook 59 189 301
298 Andy Sullivan 52 188 309
299 Sebastian Soderberg 52 187 293
300 Haotong Li 38 186 294
301 Cole Hammer 21 184 289
302 Michael Gligic 59 183 305
303 William McGirt 36 183 297
304 Chris Stroud 26 182 292
305 Jazz Janewattananond 57 180 300
306 Matthew Southgate 56 180 302
307 Marcel Siem 47 179 299
308 Jinichiro Kozuma 29 178 307
309 George Coetzee 44 178 306
310 Jeff Winther 46 178 304
311 Bi-o Kim 14 178 322
312 Ryo Hisatsune 31 177 298
313 Jed Morgan 23 177 343
314 Angel Hidalgo 33 174 303
315 Steve Lewton 12 173 314
316 Eddie Pepperell 46 172 313
317 Marcus Kinhult 42 172 321
318 Richy Werenski 58 171 312
319 Seung-yul Noh 41 167 319
320 David Law 54 167 311
321 Joakim Lagergren 52 164 315
322 Alejandro Del Rey 15 164 327
323 Lukas Nemecz 36 163 326
324 Gavin Green 55 163 336
325 Zander Lombard 58 162 320
326 Estanislao Goya 20 162 316
327 Turk Pettit 17 161 331
328 Niklas Norgaard Moller 38 160 318
329 Ross Fisher 51 160 330
330 Paul Haley 21 160 317
331 Kelly Kraft 50 160 325
332 Paul Waring 39 158 324
333 Daniel Gavins 51 157 342
334 Carl Yuan 19 156 329
335 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 52 155 328
336 Alexander Knappe 17 154 323
337 Max McGreevy 52 153 332
338 Sihwan Kim 40 151 333
339 Kyong-jun Moon 9 151 308
340 John Catlin 52 150 334
341 Tapio Pulkkanen 51 148 335
342 Nick Watney 55 147 338
343 Brandon Matthews 25 145 339
344 Louis de Jager 40 145 340
345 Vaughn Taylor 35 144 348
346 Jonathan Byrd 40 144 344
347 Aaron Cockerill 46 144 362
348 Francesco Laporta 50 143 347
349 Clement Sordet 23 142 424
350 JC Ritchie 28 140 356
351 Keenan Davidse 10 140 357
352 Ryosuke Kinoshita 33 140 358
353 Tom Lewis 34 138 360
354 Stephen Stallings 9 137 364
355 Jacques Kruyswijk 33 137 349
356 Dan Bradbury 12 136 363
357 Rikuya Hoshino 34 136 359
358 Tom McKibbin 19 135 345
359 Kazuki Higa 35 135 351
360 Paul Barjon 40 134 353
361 Anthony Quayle 23 134 368
362 Kyle Westmoreland 23 134 350
363 Patrick Flavin 19 134 346
364 Augusto Nunez 21 133 352
365 Bill Haas 52 133 361
366 Roger Sloan 49 132 354
367 Espen Kofstad 30 132 369
368 Matthew Baldwin 23 131 355
369 Kalle Samooja 48 130 365
370 Shaun Norris 40 128 366
371 Chase Seiffert 39 128 367
372 Ricardo Gouveia 31 128 372
373 Julien Guerrier 53 128 371
374 Justin Walters 53 127 370
375 Mikumu Horikawa 27 127 374
376 Joachim B Hansen 50 126 373
377 Nick Bachem 11 126 377
378 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 32 124 378
379 Jeong Weon Ko 13 124 446
380 Trevor Werbylo 23 123 420
381 Sean Crocker 53 123 379
382 Wil Besseling 51 123 375
383 Daniel van Tonder 55 121 380
384 Adrien Saddier 25 121 382
385 Kevin Roy 23 121 494
386 Jack Senior 44 120 376
387 Wilco Nienaber 42 119 384
388 Martin Contini 8 118
389 Berry Henson 19 118 387
390 Ian Snyman 13 116 386
391 Yuki Inamori 30 116 389
392 Sung Kang 55 116 381
393 Jaco Prinsloo 11 114 390
394 Craig Howie 30 114 393
395 Victor Dubuisson 30 113 395
396 Hiroshi Iwata 26 113 394
397 Jim Herman 41 113 391
398 Jens Dantorp 24 113 383
399 Daniel Young 9 111 402
400 Santiago Tarrio Ben 50 111 392
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Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.