DS Automobiles Italian Open Power Ratings

September 14, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Rory McIlroy 11.1 4
2 Matthew Fitzpatrick 24.8 2
3 Viktor Hovland 33.5 34
4 Tyrrell Hatton 35.9 8
5 Francesco Molinari 50.6 34
6 Lucas Herbert 53.5 5
7 Kurt Kitayama 57.4 7
8 Francesco Laporta 61.4 136
9 Jordan Smith 62.9 12
10 Aaron Rai 63.0 5
11 Fabrizio Zanotti 63.5 79
12 Robert MacIntyre 63.9 1
13 Mikko Korhonen 64.3 11
14 Adrian Otaegui 64.7 26
15 Adri Arnaus 65.3 86
16 Adrian Meronk 65.9 106
17 Guido Migliozzi 66.2 39
18 Rasmus Hojgaard 66.2 29
19 Jason Scrivener 67.1 59
20 Victor Perez 67.6 3
21 Thorbjorn Olesen 67.8 18
22 Min Woo Lee 68.0 91
23 Eddie Pepperell 68.7 13
24 Masahiro Kawamura 68.7 144
25 Joost Luiten 68.8 67
26 George Coetzee 69.0 80
27 Oliver Bekker 69.1 9
28 Antoine Rozner 69.2 19
29 Pablo Larrazabal 69.3 151
30 Edoardo Molinari 69.8 31
31 Alexander Bjork 70.0 DNP
32 Callum Shinkwin 70.0 65
33 Sami Valimaki 70.0 DNP
34 Matthew Southgate 70.1 33
35 Jorge Campillo 70.2 10
36 Yannik Paul 70.3 32
37 Andy Sullivan 70.4 49
38 Soren Kjeldsen 70.5 64
39 Johannes Veerman 70.8 95
40 Scott Jamieson 70.8 16
41 Nicolai Hojgaard 70.8 28
42 Richard Mansell 70.8 116
43 Rafa Cabrera Bello 70.8 61
44 Shubhankar Sharma 70.9 93
45 Maximilian Kieffer 71.2 127
46 Tapio Pulkkanen 71.2 24
47 Ross Fisher 71.6 142
48 Marcel Schneider 71.6 20
49 Justin Walters 71.8 66
50 Marcus Armitage 72.0 76
51 Julien Brun 72.2 56
52 Nacho Elvira 72.3 113
53 Louis de Jager 72.4 41
54 Romain Langasque 72.5 45
55 Daan Huizing 73.0 104
56 Ashun Wu 73.0 54
57 Luke Donald 73.2 35
58 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 73.2 12
59 Wil Besseling 73.2 97
60 Espen Kofstad 73.2 74
61 Grant Forrest 73.3 122
62 John Catlin 73.5 88
63 Kalle Samooja 73.5 48
64 Marcel Siem 73.7 119
65 Sean Crocker 73.7 111
66 David Law 73.9 123
67 Ross McGowan 73.9 30
68 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 73.9 150
69 Angel Hidalgo 74.0 131
70 Paul Waring 74.0 152
71 Lee Slattery 74.2 120
72 Tom Lewis 74.2 17
73 Lukas Nemecz 74.3 58
74 Victor Dubuisson 74.3 100
75 Niklas Norgaard Moller 74.6 50
76 Dale Whitnell 74.7 15
77 Renato Paratore 74.7 133
78 Darren Fichardt 74.8 42
79 Joakim Lagergren 74.9 128
80 Brandon Stone 75.0 60
81 Craig Howie 75.0 115
82 Filippo Celli 75.0 62
83 Jazz Janewattananond 75.0 126
84 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 75.1 53
85 Zander Lombard 75.1 132
86 Daniel van Tonder 75.1 110
87 Santiago Tarrio Ben 75.1 21
88 Marcus Kinhult 75.2 90
89 Gavin Green 75.3 37
90 Chase Hanna 75.5 103
91 Ashley Chesters 75.5 124
92 Oliver Farr 75.5 136
93 Daniel Gavins 75.6 102
94 Niall Kearney 75.6 71
95 Richard Sterne 75.6 153
96 Ricardo Gouveia 75.9 89
97 Lucas Bjerregaard 75.9 79
98 Kristoffer Broberg 76.0 139
99 Scott Hend 76.0 82
100 Benjamin Hebert 76.1 140
101 Robert Rock 76.1 51
102 Alejandro Canizares 76.3 155
103 Pep Angles 76.3 96
104 Garrick Porteous 76.5 118
105 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 76.6 36
106 Stephen Gallacher 76.8 81
107 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 77.1 57
108 Rikard Karlberg 77.1 63
109 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 77.1 46
110 Niklas Lemke 77.2 83
111 David Drysdale 77.2 112
112 Richard McEvoy 77.4 129
113 Julian Suri 77.4 109
114 Lorenzo Gagli 77.5 114
115 Andrea Pavan 77.5 146
116 Ricardo Santos 77.5 73
117 Alvaro Quiros 77.6 47
118 Oliver Fisher 77.6 147
119 Chris Paisley 77.7 154
120 Maverick Antcliff 77.7 55
121 Robin Roussel 77.9 52
122 Marc Warren 78.0 72
123 Hugo Leon 78.1 105
124 Andrew Wilson 78.1 22
125 Jonathan Caldwell 78.3 98
126 Zach Murray 78.4 138
127 Carlos Pigem 78.4 92
128 Paul Dunne 78.4 101
129 Dave Coupland 78.4 145
130 Raphael Jacquelin 78.5 DNP
131 Steven Brown 78.6 87
132 David Howell 78.6 69
133 Chris Wood 78.8 77
134 Thomas Bjorn 79.0 25
135 Cormac Sharvin 79.1 108
136 Haydn Porteous 79.1 149
137 Nicolas Colsaerts 79.3 121
138 Matt Ford 79.4 43
139 Jesper Kennegard 79.9 23
140 Thomas Aiken 80.4 DNP
141 Clement Sordet 80.8 DNP
142 Josh Geary 80.9 DNP
143 Max Schmitt 81.1 DNP
144 Jens Fahrbring 81.5 DNP
145 Gregory Havret 81.7 44
146 Julien Quesne 81.8 78
147 Bernd Ritthammer 81.8 DNP
148 Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 81.9 125
149 Alex Fitzpatrick 82.9 27
150 Giovanni Manzoni 82.9 117
151 Joel Girrbach 82.9 143
152 Clancy Waugh 82.9 130
153 Marco Florioli 82.9 75
154 Gregorio De Leo 82.9 141
155 Stefano Mazzoli 82.9 68
156 Andrea Saracino 82.9 84
157 Giacomo Fortini 82.9 156
158 Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 82.9 134
159 Luca Cianchetti 82.9 99
160 Manfredi Manica 82.9 148
161 Andrea Romano 82.9 107
162 Hui-lin Zhang 82.9 135
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 361. The average is 164. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Rankings (Sep. 11, 2022)

September 13, 2022 Thomas Hawley

Patrick Cantlay is no. 1 at the start of the 2022-23 season.
# Thru Sep. 11, 2022 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Patrick Cantlay 44 1808 1
2 Rory McIlroy 46 1711 2
3 Jon Rahm 45 1675 4
4 Xander Schauffele 47 1667 3
5 Cameron Smith 45 1568 5
6 Scottie Scheffler 57 1524 6
7 Will Zalatoris 51 1407 7
8 Justin Thomas 48 1402 8
9 Matthew Fitzpatrick 52 1348 9
10 Cameron Young 30 1317 10
11 Dustin Johnson 39 1269 11
12 Jordan Spieth 47 1265 12
13 Tom Kim 20 1252 13
14 Shane Lowry 53 1209 17
15 Sungjae Im 62 1197 14
16 Viktor Hovland 54 1179 20
17 Collin Morikawa 50 1177 15
18 Sam Burns 52 1172 16
19 Tony Finau 56 1165 18
20 Joaquin Niemann 54 1158 19
21 Corey Conners 56 1143 21
22 Daniel Berger 37 1127 22
23 Adam Scott 42 1079 23
24 Max Homa 52 1074 24
25 Paul Casey 38 1043 25
26 Brian Harman 55 1014 27
27 Talor Gooch 54 1005 30
28 Tyrrell Hatton 53 1003 26
29 Aaron Wise 47 993 29
30 Tommy Fleetwood 54 973 28
31 Abraham Ancer 55 970 31
32 Louis Oosthuizen 39 928 32
33 Billy Horschel 54 925 34
34 Hideki Matsuyama 48 908 33
35 Taylor Pendrith 28 895 35
36 Russell Henley 47 891 36
37 Seamus Power 43 885 37
38 Keith Mitchell 54 861 39
39 Keegan Bradley 57 858 38
40 Davis Riley 37 855 40
41 Mito Pereira 35 852 41
42 Kevin Na 47 840 42
43 Bryson DeChambeau 36 829 43
44 Brooks Koepka 41 799 44
45 Harold Varner 54 775 45
46 Sahith Theegala 41 755 46
47 Patrick Reed 54 754 58
48 Cameron Tringale 56 751 48
49 Chris Kirk 51 749 47
50 Brendan Steele 46 743 49
51 Cameron Davis 50 738 51
52 Alex Noren 50 737 50
53 Maverick McNealy 52 724 53
54 Scott Stallings 57 720 57
55 Taylor Moore 30 720 54
56 Denny McCarthy 58 720 55
57 Adam Hadwin 54 718 56
58 Kevin Kisner 50 707 59
59 Jason Kokrak 49 703 60
60 Sergio Garcia 48 701 52
61 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 53 685 63
62 Si Woo Kim 59 677 61
63 Justin Rose 42 668 62
64 Webb Simpson 41 668 64
65 Bubba Watson 33 665 65
66 Marc Leishman 51 663 66
67 Sebastian Munoz 58 660 67
68 KH Lee 60 639 68
69 Gary Woodland 47 636 69
70 JT Poston 58 633 70
71 Trey Mullinax 31 628 71
72 Ryan Palmer 47 625 73
73 Sepp Straka 64 619 74
74 Matt Kuchar 46 612 75
75 Lucas Herbert 46 605 72
76 Matthew Wolff 40 585 77
77 Tom Hoge 65 584 78
78 Charles Howell 39 584 79
79 Lee Westwood 48 581 83
80 Andrew Putnam 60 579 80
81 Branden Grace 54 576 76
82 Francesco Molinari 37 558 97
83 Troy Merritt 59 555 81
84 Kevin Streelman 55 549 84
85 Emiliano Grillo 57 547 85
86 Harris English 41 545 82
87 Erik van Rooyen 48 540 86
88 Alex Smalley 37 538 88
89 Anirban Lahiri 47 538 87
90 Charl Schwartzel 47 530 90
91 Jason Day 40 526 89
92 Ian Poulter 56 523 91
93 Thomas Pieters 44 522 95
94 Jhonattan Vegas 50 514 92
95 Brendon Todd 53 511 93
96 Mac Hughes 56 511 94
97 Sadom Kaewkanjana 11 506 96
98 Pat Perez 52 495 98
99 David Lipsky 39 485 99
100 Lee Hodges 35 483 100
101 Stewart Cink 50 480 101
102 Matt Jones 54 476 102
103 Lucas Glover 56 474 103
104 Wyndham Clark 56 473 105
105 Matthew NeSmith 56 473 104
106 Lanto Griffin 52 471 106
107 Adam Long 57 471 107
108 Brandon Wu 32 468 108
109 Joel Dahmen 51 460 109
110 Kurt Kitayama 48 458 111
111 Chez Reavie 56 450 112
112 Aaron Rai 57 446 110
113 Doug Ghim 55 441 113
114 Nick Hardy 29 439 115
115 John Huh 49 439 117
116 CT Pan 51 438 116
117 Russell Knox 59 438 119
118 Charley Hoffman 52 437 118
119 Luke List 58 433 123
120 Stephan Jaeger 38 431 120
121 Taylor Montgomery 8 431 122
122 JJ Spaun 56 431 121
123 Robert MacIntyre 54 430 114
124 Dylan Frittelli 59 425 124
125 Adam Svensson 34 425 125
126 Carlos Ortiz 51 420 126
127 Callum Tarren 29 410 127
128 Sam Horsfield 42 405 139
129 Christopher Gotterup 12 403 128
130 Cameron Champ 45 399 130
131 Patton Kizzire 57 395 131
132 Thomas Detry 53 392 151
133 Dean Burmester 54 391 129
134 Michael Thompson 49 389 132
135 Adam Schenk 64 388 133
136 Martin Laird 48 387 134
137 Beau Hossler 55 386 135
138 Hayden Buckley 34 385 136
139 Rickie Fowler 45 376 138
140 Chesson Hadley 54 373 141
141 Matt Wallace 60 370 137
142 Phachara Khongwatmai 8 369 140
143 Scott Piercy 53 365 142
144 Nate Lashley 49 359 143
145 Richard Bland 50 355 152
146 Mark Hubbard 55 351 145
147 Steve Stricker 11 349 146
148 Danny Willett 56 345 144
149 James Hahn 49 342 147
150 Rasmus Hojgaard 49 341 163
151 Hennie du Plessis 22 340 149
152 Min Woo Lee 45 338 148
153 Fabrizio Zanotti 41 337 176
154 Bernd Wiesberger 50 336 158
155 Patrick Rodgers 63 330 154
156 Peter Malnati 60 327 153
157 Justin Lower 29 327 155
158 Thriston Lawrence 31 323 150
159 Sam Ryder 61 323 156
160 Justin Harding 54 323 170
161 Robert Streb 57 322 157
162 Tyler Duncan 58 315 160
163 Vincent Whaley 58 314 162
164 Adrian Meronk 48 313 167
165 Zach Johnson 46 312 159
166 Martin Kaymer 35 311 165
167 Jason Scrivener 43 304 168
168 Doc Redman 55 303 169
169 Guido Migliozzi 52 303 188
170 Oliver Bekker 28 302 166
171 Ryan Fox 42 302 161
172 Jordan Smith 52 301 164
173 Hudson Swafford 54 300 171
174 Greyson Sigg 39 294 173
175 Austin Smotherman 29 292 174
176 Nick Taylor 57 288 175
177 Adri Arnaus 52 285 172
178 Hank Lebioda 54 285 178
179 Pablo Larrazabal 44 284 185
180 Rory Sabbatini 50 283 177
181 Brandt Snedeker 49 282 179
182 Harry Higgs 60 280 180
183 Chase Koepka 9 275 181
184 Matthias Schwab 54 275 183
185 Ryan Armour 50 269 186
186 Adrian Otaegui 56 269 209
187 Victor Perez 47 269 182
188 Cameron Percy 44 266 187
189 Padraig Harrington 40 265 189
190 Danny Lee 47 264 192
191 Hurly Long 31 263 184
192 Max McGreevy 31 262 193
193 Anthony Quayle 14 261 190
194 Harry Hall 11 260 194
195 Phil Mickelson 33 258 195
196 Mikko Korhonen 42 253 191
197 Richy Werenski 56 251 197
198 Chad Ramey 31 248 199
199 Alexander Bjork 45 248 196
200 John Augenstein 14 243 205
201 Jamie Donaldson 48 242 198
202 Graeme McDowell 46 241 202
203 Brian Stuard 71 239 204
204 Patrick Flavin 12 239 203
205 Garrick Higgo 58 238 200
206 Yannik Paul 22 237 206
207 Laurie Canter 46 237 201
208 Brice Garnett 62 235 207
209 Antoine Rozner 52 231 208
210 Ryan Moore 32 231 210
211 Michael Gligic 58 229 211
212 Austin Eckroat 14 227 212
213 Satoshi Kodaira 53 224 214
214 Kramer Hickok 54 223 216
215 MJ Daffue 17 220 217
216 Kelly Kraft 49 219 218
217 Matthieu Pavon 54 218 268
218 Thorbjorn Olesen 41 215 213
219 Marcus Helligkilde 23 211 215
220 Henrik Norlander 59 210 220
221 Andrew Johnston 20 210 221
222 Justin Suh 18 208 219
223 Johannes Veerman 48 205 246
224 Masahiro Kawamura 58 205 252
225 Tyler McCumber 35 204 224
226 Seonghyeon Kim 10 202 226
227 Takumi Kanaya 38 200 227
228 Henrik Stenson 47 200 228
229 Marcus Armitage 54 198 225
230 Richard Mansell 34 197 229
231 Peter Uihlein 34 196 230
232 Matthew Jordan 53 194 260
233 Jinichiro Kozuma 25 193 223
234 Julien Brun 22 193 222
235 Sean O’Hair 40 193 232
236 Marcel Schneider 37 192 233
237 Rafa Cabrera Bello 56 192 305
238 Edoardo Molinari 51 188 231
239 Roger Sloan 58 187 238
240 Jimmy Walker 39 186 241
241 Scott Jamieson 50 185 236
242 Kyle Stanley 49 185 239
243 Romain Langasque 51 184 234
244 Richie Ramsay 52 183 237
245 Espen Kofstad 24 183 243
246 Byeong Hun An 36 183 242
247 Joseph Bramlett 61 181 245
248 Bo Hoag 58 180 244
249 Matthias Schmid 36 180 235
250 Haotong Li 40 178 240
251 Jorge Campillo 59 177 270
252 William McGirt 33 177 254
253 Andrew Novak 32 176 250
254 Ben Martin 41 176 253
255 Kevin Tway 54 175 258
256 Calum Hill 34 174 257
257 Luke Donald 50 173 247
258 Matthew Southgate 53 173 319
259 Maximilian Kieffer 47 172 249
260 Ryosuke Kinoshita 27 172 255
261 Callum Shinkwin 46 171 248
262 Vaughn Taylor 53 171 262
263 Andrew Landry 39 170 263
264 Dylan Wu 32 169 264
265 Andy Sullivan 52 169 280
266 Justin Walters 54 169 259
267 Tom Lewis 43 167 267
268 Sean Crocker 58 167 261
269 Austin Cook 59 165 271
270 Nicolai Hojgaard 46 165 265
271 George Coetzee 44 164 293
272 Rick Lamb 8 164 269
273 Ewen Ferguson 36 161 266
274 Chase Seiffert 52 160 273
275 Scott Vincent 27 160 279
276 Chris Naegel 8 158 277
277 Marcel Siem 34 158 281
278 Trevor Fisher 8 157 284
279 Francesco Laporta 54 155 275
280 Travis Smyth 9 155 251
281 Sami Valimaki 46 155 274
282 Davis Thompson 13 155 285
283 Eddie Pepperell 47 155 308
284 Bronson Burgoon 41 153 289
285 Wil Besseling 49 153 296
286 Wade Ormsby 40 153 276
287 Grant Forrest 54 152 326
288 Kevin Chappell 34 152 286
289 JC Ritchie 25 152 292
290 Nick Watney 54 152 291
291 Kalle Samooja 48 152 278
292 Jim Furyk 9 151 288
293 Shaun Norris 34 149 283
294 Brandon Hagy 61 149 295
295 Jonathan Byrd 36 149 294
296 Todd Sinnott 11 148 256
297 Victor Dubuisson 31 148 282
298 Ben Taylor 24 148 299
299 John Catlin 52 147 290
300 Ashun Wu 43 147 287
301 James Morrison 57 145 298
302 David Law 56 145 302
303 Camilo Villegas 56 144 301
304 Joost Luiten 48 143 349
305 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 55 143 300
306 Connor Syme 52 143 297
307 Louis de Jager 34 142 306
308 Angel Hidalgo 16 141 309
309 Scott Gutschewski 30 141 307
310 Shubhankar Sharma 55 141 304
311 Tapio Pulkkanen 51 140 303
312 Kevin Yu 9 139 310
313 Bill Haas 54 139 311
314 Wilco Nienaber 46 138 312
315 Will Gordon 36 136 314
316 Jens Dantorp 12 136 313
317 James Piot 10 136 315
318 Scott Brown 49 135 317
319 Soren Kjeldsen 47 134 434
320 Lukas Nemecz 22 133 318
321 Daan Huizing 34 132 322
322 Bryson Nimmer 8 131 323
323 Jack Senior 53 130 321
324 Brandon Stone 47 129 316
325 John Murphy 8 129 327
326 Niklas Norgaard Moller 23 129 325
327 Brent Grant 8 129 324
328 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 24 126 329
329 David Horsey 54 125 383
330 Frederic LaCroix 21 124 320
331 Julien Guerrier 53 122 328
332 Paul Barjon 36 122 338
333 Jeff Winther 48 122 330
334 Joachim B Hansen 56 122 331
335 David Lingmerth 31 122 334
336 Daniel Hillier 9 121 336
337 Bo Van Pelt 50 121 340
338 Jacques Kruyswijk 31 121 339
339 Yuki Inamori 27 119 332
340 Jazz Janewattananond 54 118 335
341 Santiago Tarrio Ben 32 117 333
342 Daniel van Tonder 46 117 337
343 Ockie Strydom 8 117 345
344 Aaron Baddeley 40 117 343
345 Jim Herman 40 117 344
346 Sebastian Soderberg 54 116 341
347 Ben Kohles 30 115 346
348 Chan Kim 30 115 347
349 Ross Fisher 51 115 342
350 Erik Barnes 8 114 348
351 Michael Gellerman 18 113 355
352 Joakim Lagergren 51 113 353
353 Matthew Baldwin 19 113 354
354 Martin Trainer 60 112 351
355 Sung Kang 64 112 352
356 Hideto Tanihara 19 111 357
357 Oliver Wilson 54 111 397
358 Paul Waring 39 110 359
359 Michael Kim 36 109 362
360 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 38 109 350
361 Alexander Levy 39 109 358
362 Wesley Bryan 32 108 360
363 CJ du Plessis 8 107 370
364 Sihwan Kim 35 107 364
365 Chase Hanna 31 107 363
366 Vincent Norman 10 106 367
367 Niall Kearney 30 106 368
368 Ricardo Gouveia 23 105 356
369 Jason Dufner 51 104 373
370 Dale Whitnell 57 104 365
371 Nacho Elvira 58 103 366
372 Robby Shelton 36 103 371
373 Seung-yul Noh 34 102 375
374 Rikuya Hoshino 31 102 372
375 Craig Howie 28 102 374
376 Darren Fichardt 39 101 369
377 Keenan Davidse 8 100 379
378 Brad Kennedy 17 100 361
379 Ryan Brehm 40 100 377
380 Renato Paratore 55 99 381
381 Darius van Driel 50 97 380
382 Shugo Imahira 24 97 376
383 Mark Anderson 26 95 382
384 Marcus Kinhult 43 95 378
385 Seth Reeves 32 93 384
386 Daniel Gavins 40 93 396
387 Kazuki Higa 24 92 394
388 Rob Oppenheim 32 91 385
389 Jed Morgan 9 91 389
390 Stephen Stallings 11 91 387
391 Scott Harrington 35 89 390
392 Keita Nakajima 15 88 392
393 Kristoffer Broberg 40 88 386
394 Jim Knous 30 88 393
395 Aaron Cockerill 48 88 391
396 Lee Slattery 30 86 395
397 Hiroshi Iwata 23 85 388
398 David Dixon 14 84 399
399 Curtis Thompson 34 82 401
400 Adrien Saddier 32 81 402
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

BMW PGA Championship Power Ratings

September 5, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Rory McIlroy 2.5 2
2 Jon Rahm 13.4 2
3 Matthew Fitzpatrick 19.2 42
4 Shane Lowry 27.3 1
5 Tommy Fleetwood 29.6 57
6 Viktor Hovland 31.3 5
7 Tyrrell Hatton 31.7 57
8 Adam Scott 32.8 42
9 Billy Horschel 36.4 9
10 Talor Gooch 40.0 4
11 Patrick Reed 40.5 5
12 Abraham Ancer 40.5 18
13 Francesco Molinari 50.2 9
14 Justin Rose 50.4 WD
15 Branden Grace 50.7 111
16 Lee Westwood 52.3 13
17 Lucas Herbert 52.5 73
18 Ian Poulter 56.3 32
19 Thomas Pieters 56.5 23
20 Graeme McDowell 57.2 50
21 Miguel Angel Jimenez 57.8 96
22 Dean Burmester 59.2 111
23 Thongchai Jaidee 60.0 121
24 Kurt Kitayama 60.0 32
25 Matt Wallace 60.1 96
26 Danny Willett 60.7 104
27 Sam Horsfield 61.1 18
28 Robert MacIntyre 62.3 50
29 Nicolas Colsaerts 62.3 73
30 Aaron Rai 62.3 104
31 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 62.5 96
32 Bernd Wiesberger 63.4 23
33 Jordan Smith 63.4 73
34 Fabrizio Zanotti 63.6 13
35 Sergio Garcia 64.3 WD
36 Greig Hutcheon 65.6 126
37 Mikko Korhonen 65.6 96
38 Min Woo Lee 65.8 42
39 Rasmus Hojgaard 66.0 18
40 Thomas Detry 66.4 5
41 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 66.4 32
42 Ryan Fox 66.7 WD
43 Adrian Meronk 66.7 32
44 Thriston Lawrence 66.9 130
45 Victor Perez 67.0 50
46 Richard Bland 67.1 23
47 Pablo Larrazabal 67.4 32
48 Alexander Bjork 67.7 73
49 Richie Ramsay 67.9 57
50 Laurie Canter 68.5 104
51 Rafa Cabrera Bello 68.5 9
52 Adri Arnaus 68.6 138
53 Jason Scrivener 68.9 42
54 Masahiro Kawamura 68.9 18
55 Thorbjorn Olesen 69.1 85
56 Justin Harding 69.1 23
57 Oliver Bekker 69.6 42
58 Maximilian Kieffer 69.8 65
59 Sami Valimaki 69.9 85
60 Marcus Kinhult 69.9 73
61 Adrian Otaegui 69.9 13
62 Andy Sullivan 70.0 32
63 Hurly Long 70.0 85
64 Jamie Donaldson 70.1 73
65 Guido Migliozzi 70.1 13
66 Antoine Rozner 70.2 50
67 Ross Fisher 70.2 136
68 Marcus Helligkilde 70.2 73
69 Yannik Paul 70.4 DNP
70 Tapio Pulkkanen 70.5 96
71 Eddie Pepperell 70.5 32
72 Matthew Southgate 70.6 13
73 Scott Jamieson 70.7 50
74 Shubhankar Sharma 70.8 85
75 Garrick Higgo 71.1 104
76 Julien Brun 71.1 71
77 Ewen Ferguson 71.1 111
78 Callum Shinkwin 71.2 68
79 Marcus Armitage 71.5 57
80 Matthias Schmid 71.5 85
81 Marcel Schneider 71.6 DNP
82 Joakim Lagergren 71.7 50
83 Sean Crocker 71.7 85
84 Joachim B Hansen 71.9 133
85 Francesco Laporta 72.0 96
86 Romain Langasque 72.1 57
87 Luke Donald 72.2 121
88 Edoardo Molinari 72.2 65
89 Jorge Campillo 72.4 32
90 Justin Walters 72.5 57
91 Haotong Li 72.5 133
92 Matthew Jordan 72.7 23
93 Joost Luiten 72.7 23
94 Matthieu Pavon 72.7 9
95 Connor Syme 72.8 68
96 George Coetzee 72.9 32
97 Johannes Veerman 73.0 23
98 Ashun Wu 73.0 121
99 Nicolai Hojgaard 73.1 73
100 Espen Kofstad 73.2 DNP
101 Wade Ormsby 73.2 121
102 David Law 73.2 50
103 Kalle Samooja 73.3 85
104 Nacho Elvira 73.3 126
105 Jack Senior 73.3 57
106 John Catlin 73.3 73
107 Shaun Norris 73.4 72
108 Victor Dubuisson 73.6 73
109 David Horsey 73.7 18
110 Lucas Bjerregaard 73.9 73
111 James Morrison 74.0 57
112 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 74.1 DNP
113 Julien Guerrier 74.1 85
114 Jeff Winther 74.1 85
115 Grant Forrest 74.1 23
116 Wil Besseling 74.2 42
117 Brandon Stone 74.3 111
118 Frederic LaCroix 74.4 65
119 Santiago Tarrio Ben 74.5 130
120 Lukas Nemecz 74.7 DNP
121 Jazz Janewattananond 74.8 126
122 Stephen Gallacher 74.9 111
123 Sebastian Soderberg 74.9 96
124 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 75.0 104
125 Darren Fichardt 75.0 111
126 Daniel van Tonder 75.1 68
127 Darius van Driel 75.1 121
128 Dale Whitnell 75.2 111
129 Chris Wood 75.2 126
130 Oliver Wilson 75.2 23
131 Chase Hanna 75.3 DNP
132 Ricardo Gouveia 75.5 85
133 Kristoffer Broberg 76.0 WD
134 Soren Kjeldsen 76.0 5
135 Nino Bertasio 76.3 WD
136 Rikard Karlberg 76.3 104
137 Daniel Gavins 76.3 42
138 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 76.5 133
139 Alejandro Canizares 76.5 111
140 Richard Sterne 76.6 130
141 Steven Brown 76.8 111
142 Andrea Pavan 77.0 WD
143 Marc Warren 77.3 85
144 Scott Hend 77.3 32
145 David Drysdale 77.4 111
146 Thomas Bjorn 77.4 73
147 Maverick Antcliff 77.8 42
148 Jack Singh Brar 77.9 136
149 Chris Paisley 78.1 104
150 Jonathan Caldwell 78.2 96
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 402. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Rankings (Sep. 4, 2022)

September 5, 2022 Thomas Hawley

Patrick Cantlay is no. 1 as the start of the 2022-23 season nears.
# Thru Sep. 4, 2022 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Patrick Cantlay 45 1801 1
2 Rory McIlroy 46 1688 2
3 Xander Schauffele 48 1666 3
4 Jon Rahm 45 1649 4
5 Cameron Smith 46 1567 5
6 Scottie Scheffler 57 1521 6
7 Will Zalatoris 52 1413 7
8 Justin Thomas 49 1407 8
9 Matthew Fitzpatrick 52 1385 9
10 Cameron Young 30 1323 10
11 Dustin Johnson 40 1271 13
12 Jordan Spieth 48 1261 11
13 Joohyung Kim 20 1245 12
14 Sungjae Im 63 1193 14
15 Collin Morikawa 51 1175 15
16 Sam Burns 52 1168 16
17 Shane Lowry 53 1165 17
18 Tony Finau 57 1164 18
19 Joaquin Niemann 55 1158 21
20 Viktor Hovland 54 1153 19
21 Corey Conners 57 1142 20
22 Daniel Berger 38 1124 22
23 Adam Scott 42 1107 23
24 Max Homa 53 1074 24
25 Paul Casey 39 1044 25
26 Tyrrell Hatton 53 1033 26
27 Brian Harman 56 1014 27
28 Tommy Fleetwood 54 1003 28
29 Aaron Wise 47 988 29
30 Talor Gooch 53 964 31
31 Abraham Ancer 55 962 30
32 Louis Oosthuizen 40 925 34
33 Hideki Matsuyama 49 910 32
34 Billy Horschel 54 901 33
35 Taylor Pendrith 29 896 35
36 Russell Henley 47 890 36
37 Seamus Power 43 882 37
38 Keegan Bradley 58 857 39
39 Keith Mitchell 54 857 40
40 Davis Riley 38 856 38
41 Mito Pereira 35 853 41
42 Kevin Na 48 835 44
43 Bryson DeChambeau 37 832 42
44 Brooks Koepka 41 800 43
45 Harold Varner 54 776 45
46 Sahith Theegala 41 756 46
47 Chris Kirk 51 751 48
48 Cameron Tringale 56 751 47
49 Brendan Steele 46 744 49
50 Alex Noren 51 738 50
51 Cameron Davis 50 737 51
52 Sergio Garcia 48 725 59
53 Maverick McNealy 52 723 53
54 Taylor Moore 30 720 54
55 Denny McCarthy 58 719 57
56 Adam Hadwin 55 719 55
57 Scott Stallings 57 715 56
58 Patrick Reed 54 714 52
59 Kevin Kisner 51 707 58
60 Jason Kokrak 50 703 64
61 Si Woo Kim 59 693 60
62 Justin Rose 42 692 61
63 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 54 682 62
64 Webb Simpson 42 669 63
65 Bubba Watson 34 667 65
66 Marc Leishman 52 661 66
67 Sebastian Munoz 59 660 67
68 KH Lee 60 636 69
69 Gary Woodland 48 635 68
70 JT Poston 59 633 70
71 Trey Mullinax 31 629 72
72 Lucas Herbert 46 627 73
73 Ryan Palmer 48 625 71
74 Sepp Straka 64 621 74
75 Matt Kuchar 47 612 75
76 Branden Grace 54 592 78
77 Matthew Wolff 41 585 80
78 Tom Hoge 65 585 76
79 Charles Howell 40 584 79
80 Andrew Putnam 61 576 77
81 Troy Merritt 60 554 82
82 Harris English 42 548 81
83 Lee Westwood 48 548 95
84 Kevin Streelman 56 547 83
85 Emiliano Grillo 57 547 84
86 Erik van Rooyen 49 540 85
87 Anirban Lahiri 47 538 97
88 Alex Smalley 37 535 86
89 Jason Day 41 526 88
90 Charl Schwartzel 47 526 87
91 Ian Poulter 56 521 90
92 Jhonattan Vegas 50 512 91
93 Brendon Todd 54 510 89
94 Mac Hughes 57 509 92
95 Thomas Pieters 44 506 93
96 Sadom Kaewkanjana 11 506 126
97 Francesco Molinari 36 502 94
98 Pat Perez 52 491 104
99 David Lipsky 39 487 96
100 Lee Hodges 36 481 100
101 Stewart Cink 50 480 98
102 Matt Jones 55 477 99
103 Lucas Glover 57 476 102
104 Matthew NeSmith 56 475 101
105 Wyndham Clark 56 472 106
106 Lanto Griffin 53 472 103
107 Adam Long 58 471 105
108 Brandon Wu 33 466 107
109 Joel Dahmen 52 460 109
110 Aaron Rai 56 458 108
111 Kurt Kitayama 48 454 110
112 Chez Reavie 57 448 111
113 Doug Ghim 55 440 113
114 Robert MacIntyre 54 440 118
115 Nick Hardy 29 440 114
116 CT Pan 51 439 117
117 John Huh 49 437 115
118 Charley Hoffman 52 437 120
119 Russell Knox 59 437 116
120 Stephan Jaeger 39 432 121
121 JJ Spaun 56 431 122
122 Taylor Montgomery 8 430 119
123 Luke List 58 430 123
124 Dylan Frittelli 59 428 124
125 Adam Svensson 34 425 125
126 Carlos Ortiz 51 421 127
127 Callum Tarren 29 411 128
128 Christopher Gotterup 12 405 112
129 Dean Burmester 53 401 131
130 Cameron Champ 46 399 129
131 Patton Kizzire 57 397 130
132 Michael Thompson 50 388 133
133 Adam Schenk 64 387 136
134 Martin Laird 48 387 135
135 Beau Hossler 55 386 134
136 Hayden Buckley 34 385 138
137 Matt Wallace 60 381 132
138 Rickie Fowler 46 374 139
139 Sam Horsfield 41 373 137
140 Phachara Khongwatmai 8 370
141 Chesson Hadley 55 370 140
142 Scott Piercy 53 364 141
143 Nate Lashley 49 359 142
144 Danny Willett 56 354 143
145 Mark Hubbard 56 350 147
146 Steve Stricker 12 349 146
147 James Hahn 49 344 148
148 Min Woo Lee 44 340 145
149 Hennie du Plessis 22 339 150
150 Thriston Lawrence 30 338 144
151 Thomas Detry 53 335 149
152 Richard Bland 49 334 159
153 Peter Malnati 60 329 151
154 Patrick Rodgers 63 329 153
155 Justin Lower 29 327 152
156 Sam Ryder 61 324 154
157 Robert Streb 57 321 156
158 Bernd Wiesberger 50 316 170
159 Zach Johnson 47 315 157
160 Tyler Duncan 59 314 161
161 Ryan Fox 42 314 160
162 Vincent Whaley 58 313 163
163 Rasmus Hojgaard 49 311 164
164 Jordan Smith 51 310 165
165 Martin Kaymer 36 310 172
166 Oliver Bekker 27 304 155
167 Adrian Meronk 47 304 168
168 Jason Scrivener 42 303 158
169 Doc Redman 55 303 167
170 Justin Harding 54 302 162
171 Hudson Swafford 54 297 169
172 Adri Arnaus 51 296 166
173 Greyson Sigg 40 293 173
174 Austin Smotherman 29 293 171
175 Nick Taylor 57 288 176
176 Fabrizio Zanotti 40 287 185
177 Rory Sabbatini 51 284 174
178 Hank Lebioda 54 282 177
179 Brandt Snedeker 50 280 181
180 Harry Higgs 60 280 178
181 Chase Koepka 9 277 183
182 Victor Perez 47 276 182
183 Matthias Schwab 55 275 184
184 Hurly Long 31 274 180
185 Pablo Larrazabal 43 273 179
186 Ryan Armour 50 268 194
187 Cameron Percy 44 265 186
188 Guido Migliozzi 51 264 187
189 Padraig Harrington 40 264 189
190 Anthony Quayle 14 263 175
191 Mikko Korhonen 41 263 191
192 Danny Lee 48 261 192
193 Max McGreevy 31 259 193
194 Harry Hall 11 258 216
195 Phil Mickelson 34 256 188
196 Alexander Bjork 44 256 200
197 Richy Werenski 57 251 197
198 Jamie Donaldson 48 249 195
199 Chad Ramey 31 247 199
200 Garrick Higgo 58 246 201
201 Laurie Canter 45 246 209
202 Graeme McDowell 46 244 198
203 Patrick Flavin 12 240 190
204 Brian Stuard 71 239 203
205 John Augenstein 15 238 196
206 Yannik Paul 22 236 208
207 Brice Garnett 62 235 204
208 Antoine Rozner 51 234 207
209 Adrian Otaegui 56 232 205
210 Ryan Moore 32 230 210
211 Michael Gligic 58 229 214
212 Austin Eckroat 14 227 243
213 Thorbjorn Olesen 40 225 215
214 Satoshi Kodaira 53 223 211
215 Marcus Helligkilde 22 222 232
216 Kramer Hickok 54 222 213
217 MJ Daffue 17 220 202
218 Kelly Kraft 49 219 212
219 Justin Suh 18 211 259
220 Henrik Norlander 59 210 217
221 Andrew Johnston 20 209 219
222 Julien Brun 22 206 222
223 Jinichiro Kozuma 24 205 223
224 Tyler McCumber 35 205 220
225 Marcus Armitage 53 202 218
226 Seonghyeon Kim 10 202 206
227 Takumi Kanaya 39 200 221
228 Henrik Stenson 48 199 225
229 Richard Mansell 35 197 228
230 Peter Uihlein 34 194 224
231 Edoardo Molinari 50 194 229
232 Sean O’Hair 40 193 226
233 Marcel Schneider 38 192 227
234 Romain Langasque 51 188 230
235 Matthias Schmid 35 187 231
236 Scott Jamieson 49 186 239
237 Richie Ramsay 51 186 238
238 Roger Sloan 58 186 236
239 Kyle Stanley 49 185 234
240 Haotong Li 39 185 233
241 Jimmy Walker 40 183 244
242 Byeong Hun An 37 183 237
243 Espen Kofstad 25 183 235
244 Bo Hoag 58 181 240
245 Joseph Bramlett 61 181 247
246 Johannes Veerman 47 180 246
247 Luke Donald 49 179 241
248 Callum Shinkwin 45 178 248
249 Maximilian Kieffer 46 178 249
250 Andrew Novak 32 177 252
251 Travis Smyth 8 176 251
252 Masahiro Kawamura 57 176 261
253 Ben Martin 41 176 260
254 William McGirt 33 175 242
255 Ryosuke Kinoshita 26 175 245
256 Todd Sinnott 10 173 254
257 Calum Hill 34 173 255
258 Kevin Tway 54 173 257
259 Justin Walters 53 172 278
260 Matthew Jordan 52 172 284
261 Sean Crocker 57 172 258
262 Vaughn Taylor 53 171 268
263 Andrew Landry 39 170 262
264 Dylan Wu 32 170 250
265 Nicolai Hojgaard 46 169 253
266 Ewen Ferguson 35 167 313
267 Tom Lewis 44 166 292
268 Matthieu Pavon 53 166 264
269 Rick Lamb 8 166
270 Jorge Campillo 58 166 267
271 Austin Cook 59 165 266
272 Robin Petersson 8 163 271
273 Chase Seiffert 52 162 263
274 Sami Valimaki 46 161 270
275 Francesco Laporta 53 159 309
276 Wade Ormsby 40 159 269
277 Chris Naegel 8 159
278 Kalle Samooja 47 158 274
279 Scott Vincent 28 158 326
280 Andy Sullivan 52 157 282
281 Marcel Siem 35 157 277
282 Victor Dubuisson 30 157 265
283 Shaun Norris 34 157 273
284 Trevor Fisher 8 156 279
285 Davis Thompson 14 154 256
286 Kevin Chappell 34 153 272
287 Ashun Wu 43 152 283
288 Jim Furyk 9 152 280
289 Bronson Burgoon 41 152 285
290 John Catlin 51 152 298
291 Nick Watney 54 151 290
292 JC Ritchie 26 151 288
293 George Coetzee 44 150 301
294 Jonathan Byrd 36 150 276
295 Brandon Hagy 61 149 289
296 Wil Besseling 48 148 296
297 Connor Syme 52 147 281
298 James Morrison 56 147 307
299 Ben Taylor 24 146 293
300 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 54 146 291
301 Camilo Villegas 56 145 300
302 David Law 55 145 294
303 Tapio Pulkkanen 50 145 311
304 Shubhankar Sharma 54 144 297
305 Rafa Cabrera Bello 56 144 299
306 Louis de Jager 34 142 306
307 Scott Gutschewski 30 142 295
308 Eddie Pepperell 47 141 317
309 Angel Hidalgo 16 141 344
310 Kevin Yu 9 140 275
311 Bill Haas 54 138 302
312 Wilco Nienaber 46 138 303
313 Jens Dantorp 13 136 287
314 Will Gordon 36 136 315
315 James Piot 10 136 286
316 Brandon Stone 46 135 305
317 Scott Brown 49 134 310
318 Lukas Nemecz 22 134 304
319 Matthew Southgate 52 132 354
320 Frederic LaCroix 21 131 308
321 Jack Senior 52 131 333
322 Daan Huizing 35 130 364
323 Bryson Nimmer 8 130 318
324 Brent Grant 8 129
325 Niklas Norgaard Moller 24 129 312
326 Grant Forrest 53 128 316
327 John Murphy 8 128 324
328 Julien Guerrier 52 126 319
329 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 24 126 314
330 Jeff Winther 47 126 350
331 Joachim B Hansen 55 126 320
332 Yuki Inamori 26 123 321
333 Santiago Tarrio Ben 32 122 322
334 David Lingmerth 31 122 323
335 Jazz Janewattananond 54 122 331
336 Daniel Hillier 9 122 332
337 Daniel van Tonder 45 121 325
338 Paul Barjon 37 121 338
339 Jacques Kruyswijk 31 121 335
340 Bo Van Pelt 50 120 327
341 Sebastian Soderberg 53 120 330
342 Ross Fisher 50 119 328
343 Aaron Baddeley 40 117 337
344 Jim Herman 41 116 341
345 Ockie Strydom 8 115 346
346 Ben Kohles 30 115 349
347 Chan Kim 31 114 336
348 Erik Barnes 8 114 339
349 Joost Luiten 47 113 347
350 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 38 113 385
351 Martin Trainer 60 112 355
352 Sung Kang 65 112 342
353 Joakim Lagergren 50 112 340
354 Matthew Baldwin 20 112 351
355 Michael Gellerman 18 111 358
356 Ricardo Gouveia 23 110 359
357 Hideto Tanihara 18 110 353
358 Alexander Levy 39 109 357
359 Paul Waring 40 109 345
360 Wesley Bryan 32 109 343
361 Brad Kennedy 16 108 334
362 Michael Kim 36 108 378
363 Chase Hanna 32 107 348
364 Sihwan Kim 35 107 352
365 Dale Whitnell 56 107 356
366 Nacho Elvira 57 106 361
367 Vincent Norman 10 106 329
368 Niall Kearney 31 106 363
369 Darren Fichardt 38 105 365
370 CJ du Plessis 8 105 369
371 Robby Shelton 36 104 374
372 Rikuya Hoshino 30 103 360
373 Jason Dufner 51 103 367
374 Craig Howie 29 102 388
375 Seung-yul Noh 34 102 362
376 Shugo Imahira 24 102 366
377 Ryan Brehm 40 101 371
378 Marcus Kinhult 42 100 370
379 Keenan Davidse 8 100 375
380 Darius van Driel 49 99 368
381 Renato Paratore 56 99 373
382 Mark Anderson 26 94 372
383 David Horsey 53 93 377
384 Seth Reeves 32 93 379
385 Rob Oppenheim 32 92 376
386 Kristoffer Broberg 39 91 381
387 Stephen Stallings 11 91 387
388 Hiroshi Iwata 22 91 390
389 Jed Morgan 9 90 493
390 Scott Harrington 35 89 380
391 Aaron Cockerill 49 88 382
392 Keita Nakajima 15 87 391
393 Jim Knous 30 87 386
394 Kazuki Higa 23 86 383
395 Lee Slattery 30 86 384
396 Daniel Gavins 40 86 389
397 Oliver Wilson 53 86 444
398 Yuto Katsuragawa 15 84 392
399 David Dixon 14 83 395
400 Nino Bertasio 51 83 394
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

LIV Boston Power Ratings

September 1, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,

Cameron Smith
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Cameron Smith 3.3 4
2 Dustin Johnson 20.5 1
3 Joaquin Niemann 25.2 2
4 Paul Casey 30.9 21
5 Abraham Ancer 37.1 8
6 Talor Gooch 37.6 6
7 Louis Oosthuizen 41.0 9
8 Bryson DeChambeau 42.1 17
9 Brooks Koepka 45.5 26
10 Patrick Reed 45.7 31
11 Kevin Na 47.7 9
12 Harold Varner 47.9 31
13 Cameron Tringale 50.9 21
14 Sergio Garcia 51.0 9
15 Branden Grace 51.0 12
16 Charles Howell 51.9 15
17 Matthew Wolff 52.8 13
18 Jason Kokrak 52.9 7
19 Marc Leishman 53.5 26
20 Charl Schwartzel 55.9 35
21 Lee Westwood 56.1 4
22 Pat Perez 56.6 15
23 Carlos Ortiz 57.8 26
24 Matt Jones 58.5 26
25 Ian Poulter 59.0 17
26 Anirban Lahiri 59.1 2
27 Sadom Kaewkanjana 60.6 13
28 Sam Horsfield 62.4 38
29 Martin Kaymer 64.0 21
30 Hudson Swafford 66.9 40
31 Chase Koepka 67.1 31
32 Richard Bland 67.2 17
33 Adrian Otaegui 67.9 44
34 Bernd Wiesberger 67.9 17
35 Graeme McDowell 67.9 39
36 Phil Mickelson 69.4 40
37 Peter Uihlein 69.5 44
38 Laurie Canter 69.9 21
39 Henrik Stenson 71.4 DNP
40 James Piot 71.9 47
41 Wade Ormsby 72.8 43
42 Shaun Norris 73.1 40
43 Scott Vincent 74.2 21
44 Sihwan Kim 74.4 48
45 Turk Pettit 76.8 46
46 Phachara Khongwatmai 77.3 31
47 Jed Morgan 78.2 26
48 Eugenio Chacarra 78.5 35
Shergo Al Kurdi late entry 36
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 350. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Made in HimmerLand Power Ratings

September 1, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,
Matt Wallace
Matt Wallace
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Matt Wallace 56.6 86
2 Robert MacIntyre 62.2 12
3 Pablo Larrazabal 65.3 74
4 Thriston Lawrence 65.3 86
5 Thorbjorn Olesen 65.8 22
6 Alexander Bjork 66.1 18
7 Justin Harding 66.2 66
8 Fabrizio Zanotti 66.3 12
9 Rasmus Hojgaard 66.8 22
10 Jamie Donaldson 68.1 69
11 Adri Arnaus 68.4 74
12 Guido Migliozzi 68.9 35
13 Rory Sabbatini 69.0 41
14 Oliver Bekker 69.2 WD
15 Romain Langasque 70.1 74
16 Richie Ramsay 70.2 41
17 Richard Mansell 70.5 35
18 Marcus Armitage 70.6 118
19 Marcel Schneider 71.1 86
20 Eddie Pepperell 71.2 18
21 Connor Syme 71.4 86
22 Espen Kofstad 71.6 86
23 David Horsey 71.7 74
24 Marcus Helligkilde 72.0 8
25 Matthieu Pavon 72.0 41
26 Masahiro Kawamura 72.0 22
27 Justin Walters 72.0 8
28 Andy Sullivan 72.1 22
29 Edoardo Molinari 72.1 52
30 Luke Donald 72.2 74
31 Victor Dubuisson 72.2 86
32 Chris Paisley 72.2 108
33 Paul Waring 72.3 69
34 Julien Guerrier 72.8 108
35 Ashun Wu 72.9 35
36 Ewen Ferguson 73.0 2
37 Jens Dantorp 73.0 122
38 Tapio Pulkkanen 73.1 22
39 David Law 73.2 66
40 Nicolai Hojgaard 73.2 74
41 Renato Paratore 73.3 52
42 James Morrison 73.3 22
43 Nacho Elvira 73.5 41
44 Marcel Siem 73.5 35
45 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 73.6 136
46 Wilco Nienaber 73.7 86
47 Sebastian Soderberg 73.7 86
48 Grant Forrest 73.7 62
49 Matthew Southgate 73.7 4
50 John Catlin 73.7 22
51 Soren Kjeldsen 73.8 41
52 Matthew Jordan 73.9 4
53 Lukas Nemecz 73.9 WD
54 Joakim Lagergren 73.9 86
55 Francesco Laporta 74.0 4
56 George Coetzee 74.0 22
57 Santiago Tarrio Ben 74.1 65
58 Shubhankar Sharma 74.1 52
59 Jack Senior 74.2 18
60 Daan Huizing 74.2 8
61 Brandon Stone 74.2 108
62 Frederic LaCroix 74.2 62
63 Daniel van Tonder 74.2 141
64 Robert Rock 74.3 86
65 Joachim B Hansen 74.4 122
66 Jeff Winther 74.5 15
67 Ross Fisher 74.5 100
68 Niklas Norgaard Moller 74.5 108
69 Lucas Bjerregaard 74.6 41
70 Darius van Driel 74.6 100
71 Lee Slattery 74.7 122
72 Dale Whitnell 74.8 74
73 Ashley Chesters 75.1 139
74 Chase Hanna 75.1 74
75 Darren Fichardt 75.1 35
76 Angel Hidalgo 75.1 15
77 Kristoffer Broberg 75.2 52
78 Oliver Wilson 75.3 1
79 Tom Lewis 75.3 12
80 Gavin Green 75.3 47
81 Ricardo Gouveia 75.4 35
82 Nino Bertasio 75.5 108
83 Marc Warren 75.6 74
84 Paul Dunne 75.6 73
85 Julian Suri 75.7 47
86 Garrick Porteous 75.7 61
87 Alejandro Canizares 75.8 100
88 Pep Angles 75.8 132
89 Craig Howie 75.8 22
90 Aaron Cockerill 75.9 DQ
91 Stephen Gallacher 75.9 52
92 Daniel Gavins 75.9 86
93 Richard Sterne 76.0 86
94 Stuart Manley 76.1 DNP
95 Benjamin Hebert 76.1 22
96 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 76.1 8
97 Zander Lombard 76.2 18
98 Alvaro Quiros 76.2 100
99 Richard McEvoy 76.4 22
100 David Drysdale 76.5 47
101 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 76.6 DNP
102 Thomas Bjorn 76.7 74
103 Matthew Baldwin 76.8 DNP
104 Steven Brown 76.8 WD
105 Ricardo Santos 76.9 62
106 Andrea Pavan 76.9 118
107 Haydn Porteous 77.0 127
108 Rikard Karlberg 77.1 15
109 Lorenzo Gagli 77.2 118
110 Ross McGowan 77.2 4
111 Oliver Fisher 77.2 74
112 Niklas Lemke 77.2 22
113 Robin Roussel 77.2 118
114 Andrew Wilson 77.4 74
115 Carlos Pigem 77.4 127
116 Maverick Antcliff 77.4 100
117 Scott Hend 77.5 143
118 Raphael Jacquelin 77.6 132
119 Zach Murray 77.8 122
120 Cormac Sharvin 77.8 136
121 Chris Wood 77.9 139
122 Jack Singh Brar 77.9 108
123 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 78.0 52
124 Joel Sjoholm 78.0 100
125 Jonathan Caldwell 78.1 52
126 Joel Stalter 78.1 100
127 Matt Ford 78.3 52
128 Tristen Strydom 78.5 127
129 Graeme Storm 78.6 100
130 Jesper Kennegard 78.8 86
131 Daniel Young 79.3 DNP
132 Bobby Bai 79.6 132
133 Ivan Cantero Gutierrez 80.2 DNP
134 Jordan Wrisdale 80.4 DNP
135 Thomas Aiken 80.6 52
136 Ben Evans 81.0 DNP
137 Anton Karlsson 81.5 22
138 Pedro Oriol 81.8 DNP
139 Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 81.8 108
140 Oliver Hundebol Jorgensen 81.9 72
141 Alfie Plant 82.1 DNP
142 Gregory Havret 82.2 47
143 Dimitrios Papadatos 82.2 127
144 Damien Perrier 82.2 DNP
145 Emilio Cuartero Blanco 82.3 DNP
146 Lasse Jensen 82.3 108
147 Jesper Svensson 82.3 DNP
148 Jamie Lovemark 82.4 47
149 Tom Gandy 82.7 DNP
150 Gavin Moynihan 82.7 108
151 Nicolai Tinning 82.8 127
152 Jerome Lando-Casanova 82.8 DNP
153 Elvis Smylie 82.9 136
154 Tyler Koivisto 82.9 DNP
155 Aman Gupta 82.9 66
156 Harley Smith 83.0 132
157 Sebastian Friedrichsen 83.0 108
158 Jeppe Kristian Andersen 83.0 142
159 Christian Jacobsen 83.0 69
160 Hui-lin Zhang 83.0 86
161 Morten Orum Madsen 83.1 122
162 Alexander Knappe 83.2 DNP
163 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 83.3 3
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 30. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Rankings (Aug. 28, 2022)

September 1, 2022 Thomas Hawley

Patrick Cantlay has eight straight weeks on top as the 2021-22 season ends.
# Thru Aug. 28, 2022 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Patrick Cantlay 45 1797 1
2 Rory McIlroy 47 1685 4
3 Xander Schauffele 49 1668 3
4 Jon Rahm 46 1648 2
5 Cameron Smith 46 1548 5
6 Scottie Scheffler 58 1520 6
7 Will Zalatoris 52 1410 7
8 Justin Thomas 50 1407 9
9 Matthew Fitzpatrick 52 1383 8
10 Cameron Young 30 1324 10
11 Jordan Spieth 49 1258 11
12 Joohyung Kim 21 1236 13
13 Dustin Johnson 40 1227 12
14 Sungjae Im 64 1190 20
15 Collin Morikawa 52 1170 14
16 Sam Burns 53 1165 15
17 Shane Lowry 54 1162 18
18 Tony Finau 58 1162 19
19 Viktor Hovland 55 1155 16
20 Corey Conners 57 1143 17
21 Joaquin Niemann 55 1126 22
22 Daniel Berger 39 1121 23
23 Adam Scott 42 1103 21
24 Max Homa 53 1074 25
25 Paul Casey 38 1065 24
26 Tyrrell Hatton 54 1034 27
27 Brian Harman 56 1011 26
28 Tommy Fleetwood 55 1000 28
29 Aaron Wise 48 981 29
30 Abraham Ancer 55 939 30
31 Talor Gooch 53 935 31
32 Hideki Matsuyama 50 909 33
33 Billy Horschel 55 902 32
34 Louis Oosthuizen 39 900 35
35 Taylor Pendrith 29 899 34
36 Russell Henley 47 890 36
37 Seamus Power 44 877 37
38 Davis Riley 38 855 38
39 Keegan Bradley 59 855 40
40 Keith Mitchell 54 854 41
41 Mito Pereira 35 852 39
42 Bryson DeChambeau 37 830 42
43 Brooks Koepka 40 818 43
44 Kevin Na 48 810 44
45 Harold Varner 54 792 45
46 Sahith Theegala 42 756 46
47 Cameron Tringale 56 754 47
48 Chris Kirk 51 752 48
49 Brendan Steele 47 743 49
50 Alex Noren 51 739 50
51 Cameron Davis 51 734 51
52 Patrick Reed 54 730 53
53 Maverick McNealy 53 720 55
54 Taylor Moore 30 719 56
55 Adam Hadwin 55 719 54
56 Scott Stallings 58 715 52
57 Denny McCarthy 59 714 57
58 Kevin Kisner 52 707 58
59 Sergio Garcia 48 698 59
60 Si Woo Kim 60 691 60
61 Justin Rose 42 690 61
62 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 54 681 62
63 Webb Simpson 43 671 64
64 Jason Kokrak 49 670 63
65 Bubba Watson 34 668 65
66 Marc Leishman 52 666 66
67 Sebastian Munoz 60 660 67
68 Gary Woodland 48 634 70
69 KH Lee 61 634 68
70 JT Poston 59 633 69
71 Ryan Palmer 49 627 72
72 Trey Mullinax 31 627 71
73 Lucas Herbert 46 626 73
74 Sepp Straka 65 622 75
75 Matt Kuchar 47 612 74
76 Tom Hoge 66 584 77
77 Andrew Putnam 62 574 76
78 Branden Grace 54 569 78
79 Charles Howell 39 564 79
80 Matthew Wolff 40 558 80
81 Harris English 43 551 81
82 Troy Merritt 61 551 82
83 Kevin Streelman 57 547 83
84 Emiliano Grillo 58 545 84
85 Erik van Rooyen 50 541 85
86 Alex Smalley 37 536 86
87 Charl Schwartzel 47 536 87
88 Jason Day 41 527 88
89 Brendon Todd 55 511 89
90 Ian Poulter 55 510 90
91 Jhonattan Vegas 51 509 92
92 Mac Hughes 58 508 91
93 Thomas Pieters 44 505 93
94 Francesco Molinari 36 502 94
95 Lee Westwood 47 494 95
96 David Lipsky 39 488 97
97 Anirban Lahiri 47 483 98
98 Stewart Cink 51 482 99
99 Matt Jones 54 480 100
100 Lee Hodges 36 479 102
101 Matthew NeSmith 57 477 101
102 Lucas Glover 58 474 104
103 Lanto Griffin 54 473 103
104 Pat Perez 52 472 107
105 Adam Long 58 472 106
106 Wyndham Clark 57 471 105
107 Brandon Wu 33 468 108
108 Aaron Rai 56 458 109
109 Joel Dahmen 53 457 110
110 Kurt Kitayama 48 457 112
111 Chez Reavie 58 448 114
112 Christopher Gotterup 11 444 96
113 Doug Ghim 56 443 115
114 Nick Hardy 28 442 111
115 John Huh 49 440 118
116 Russell Knox 60 439 117
117 CT Pan 52 439 116
118 Robert MacIntyre 53 436 113
119 Taylor Montgomery 8 436
120 Charley Hoffman 53 435 119
121 Stephan Jaeger 39 431 120
122 JJ Spaun 57 430 121
123 Luke List 59 428 123
124 Dylan Frittelli 59 428 122
125 Adam Svensson 34 424 125
126 Sadom Kaewkanjana 10 424 124
127 Carlos Ortiz 51 420 126
128 Callum Tarren 29 410 127
129 Cameron Champ 47 398 130
130 Patton Kizzire 58 398 129
131 Dean Burmester 52 395 128
132 Matt Wallace 59 390 137
133 Michael Thompson 50 388 131
134 Beau Hossler 56 386 133
135 Martin Laird 49 386 132
136 Adam Schenk 65 383 135
137 Sam Horsfield 40 383 134
138 Hayden Buckley 34 381 136
139 Rickie Fowler 46 372 138
140 Chesson Hadley 56 370 139
141 Scott Piercy 54 364 141
142 Nate Lashley 50 360 142
143 Danny Willett 56 354 147
144 Thriston Lawrence 29 352 151
145 Min Woo Lee 43 352 140
146 Steve Stricker 12 351 144
147 Mark Hubbard 57 349 145
148 James Hahn 50 347 146
149 Thomas Detry 52 346 143
150 Hennie du Plessis 22 339 150
151 Peter Malnati 61 332 149
152 Justin Lower 29 328 157
153 Patrick Rodgers 64 327 156
154 Sam Ryder 62 325 155
155 Oliver Bekker 26 321 148
156 Robert Streb 58 320 160
157 Zach Johnson 47 317 159
158 Jason Scrivener 42 315 154
159 Richard Bland 49 315 161
160 Ryan Fox 43 315 152
161 Tyler Duncan 60 314 162
162 Justin Harding 53 312 163
163 Vincent Whaley 59 311 165
164 Rasmus Hojgaard 48 311 158
165 Jordan Smith 52 310 164
166 Adri Arnaus 50 307 170
167 Doc Redman 56 305 167
168 Adrian Meronk 48 303 166
169 Hudson Swafford 54 302 169
170 Bernd Wiesberger 49 296 171
171 Austin Smotherman 29 294 173
172 Martin Kaymer 35 293 175
173 Greyson Sigg 40 292 176
174 Rory Sabbatini 50 291 168
175 Anthony Quayle 13 290 153
176 Nick Taylor 57 289 179
177 Hank Lebioda 54 289 177
178 Harry Higgs 60 287 174
179 Pablo Larrazabal 43 285 181
180 Hurly Long 30 283 182
181 Brandt Snedeker 51 278 184
182 Victor Perez 47 278 178
183 Chase Koepka 8 276 183
184 Matthias Schwab 55 275 186
185 Fabrizio Zanotti 39 274 187
186 Cameron Percy 45 267 189
187 Guido Migliozzi 51 264 188
188 Phil Mickelson 34 264 192
189 Padraig Harrington 40 263 191
190 Patrick Flavin 11 263 172
191 Mikko Korhonen 41 263 190
192 Danny Lee 48 261 194
193 Max McGreevy 31 260 195
194 Ryan Armour 50 259 193
195 Jamie Donaldson 48 258 196
196 John Augenstein 14 253 180
197 Richy Werenski 57 251 197
198 Graeme McDowell 45 249 198
199 Chad Ramey 31 248 199
200 Alexander Bjork 44 248 205
201 Garrick Higgo 58 246 200
202 MJ Daffue 17 246 185
203 Brian Stuard 71 245 204
204 Brice Garnett 62 239 203
205 Adrian Otaegui 55 237 206
206 Seonghyeon Kim 10 237 241
207 Antoine Rozner 52 234 213
208 Yannik Paul 21 233 202
209 Laurie Canter 45 231 208
210 Ryan Moore 32 230 209
211 Satoshi Kodaira 52 229 207
212 Kelly Kraft 49 225 210
213 Kramer Hickok 55 221 211
214 Michael Gligic 58 221 215
215 Thorbjorn Olesen 40 219 212
216 Harry Hall 10 211 201
217 Henrik Norlander 59 211 221
218 Marcus Armitage 53 209 214
219 Andrew Johnston 20 209 216
220 Tyler McCumber 36 206 218
221 Takumi Kanaya 38 205 219
222 Julien Brun 22 205 229
223 Jinichiro Kozuma 24 204 220
224 Peter Uihlein 34 200 226
225 Henrik Stenson 48 199 225
226 Sean O’Hair 40 199 230
227 Marcel Schneider 38 198 244
228 Richard Mansell 34 198 250
229 Edoardo Molinari 49 198 227
230 Romain Langasque 50 195 222
231 Matthias Schmid 34 194 238
232 Marcus Helligkilde 21 193 233
233 Haotong Li 39 193 224
234 Kyle Stanley 49 193 223
235 Espen Kofstad 24 191 232
236 Roger Sloan 58 190 228
237 Byeong Hun An 36 189 236
238 Richie Ramsay 50 188 231
239 Scott Jamieson 49 186 264
240 Bo Hoag 58 186 234
241 Luke Donald 49 184 239
242 William McGirt 33 183 253
243 Austin Eckroat 13 183 217
244 Jimmy Walker 40 181 245
245 Ryosuke Kinoshita 25 180 242
246 Johannes Veerman 48 179 243
247 Joseph Bramlett 61 179 259
248 Callum Shinkwin 45 178 246
249 Maximilian Kieffer 47 177 247
250 Dylan Wu 31 177 237
251 Travis Smyth 8 175 249
252 Andrew Novak 31 175 240
253 Nicolai Hojgaard 45 174 255
254 Todd Sinnott 10 173 251
255 Calum Hill 35 173 254
256 Davis Thompson 13 173 235
257 Kevin Tway 55 172 258
258 Sean Crocker 57 171 248
259 Justin Suh 17 171 302
260 Ben Martin 40 170 257
261 Masahiro Kawamura 57 170 273
262 Andrew Landry 39 170 260
263 Chase Seiffert 52 168 252
264 Matthieu Pavon 53 167 256
265 Victor Dubuisson 29 166 263
266 Austin Cook 59 165 265
267 Jorge Campillo 59 165 292
268 Vaughn Taylor 52 164 261
269 Wade Ormsby 40 163 267
270 Sami Valimaki 46 162 268
271 Robin Petersson 8 162 270
272 Kevin Chappell 34 161 262
273 Shaun Norris 33 160 269
274 Kalle Samooja 48 159 266
275 Kevin Yu 8 157
276 Jonathan Byrd 36 157 271
277 Marcel Siem 34 156 299
278 Justin Walters 53 155 278
279 Trevor Fisher 8 154 281
280 Jim Furyk 10 154 277
281 Connor Syme 51 152 282
282 Andy Sullivan 51 152 274
283 Ashun Wu 43 152 272
284 Matthew Jordan 52 152 279
285 Bronson Burgoon 41 151 289
286 James Piot 9 151 287
287 Jens Dantorp 12 151 288
288 JC Ritchie 26 151 291
289 Brandon Hagy 61 151 286
290 Nick Watney 55 150 290
291 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 54 150 280
292 Tom Lewis 43 150 275
293 Ben Taylor 24 149 339
294 David Law 55 148 294
295 Scott Gutschewski 29 148 276
296 Wil Besseling 49 148 283
297 Shubhankar Sharma 54 147 284
298 John Catlin 51 145 297
299 Rafa Cabrera Bello 57 144 298
300 Camilo Villegas 56 143 293
301 George Coetzee 44 143 311
302 Bill Haas 54 143 304
303 Wilco Nienaber 46 143 296
304 Lukas Nemecz 21 142 285
305 Brandon Stone 46 142 300
306 Louis de Jager 34 142 331
307 James Morrison 55 140 301
308 Frederic LaCroix 20 139 307
309 Francesco Laporta 53 138 317
310 Scott Brown 49 138 303
311 Tapio Pulkkanen 50 137 309
312 Niklas Norgaard Moller 23 136 314
313 Ewen Ferguson 35 134 306
314 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 23 133 305
315 Will Gordon 36 133 308
316 Grant Forrest 53 132 313
317 Eddie Pepperell 46 132 312
318 Bryson Nimmer 8 130 315
319 Julien Guerrier 52 130 310
320 Joachim B Hansen 54 129 335
321 Yuki Inamori 25 129 316
322 Santiago Tarrio Ben 31 127 318
323 David Lingmerth 30 127 358
324 John Murphy 8 127 320
325 Daniel van Tonder 44 126 325
326 Scott Vincent 28 125 322
327 Bo Van Pelt 49 124 319
328 Ross Fisher 50 124 323
329 Vincent Norman 9 124 295
330 Sebastian Soderberg 53 123 343
331 Jazz Janewattananond 54 122 329
332 Daniel Hillier 9 121 327
333 Jack Senior 52 121 330
334 Brad Kennedy 15 120 328
335 Jacques Kruyswijk 32 120 333
336 Chan Kim 30 120 321
337 Aaron Baddeley 40 119 336
338 Paul Barjon 36 117 326
339 Erik Barnes 8 116
340 Joakim Lagergren 50 115 334
341 Jim Herman 41 115 338
342 Sung Kang 64 114 347
343 Wesley Bryan 32 114 332
344 Angel Hidalgo 15 114 324
345 Paul Waring 40 114 342
346 Ockie Strydom 8 114 345
347 Joost Luiten 48 113 357
348 Chase Hanna 31 112 344
349 Ben Kohles 29 112 337
350 Jeff Winther 46 111 354
351 Matthew Baldwin 21 111 349
352 Sihwan Kim 35 111 346
353 Hideto Tanihara 17 111 348
354 Matthew Southgate 52 110 360
355 Martin Trainer 60 110 341
356 Dale Whitnell 56 109 351
357 Alexander Levy 40 109 353
358 Michael Gellerman 19 108 356
359 Ricardo Gouveia 23 108 340
360 Rikuya Hoshino 29 107 355
361 Nacho Elvira 57 106 383
362 Seung-yul Noh 34 106 373
363 Niall Kearney 31 106 350
364 Daan Huizing 35 104 378
365 Darren Fichardt 37 103 359
366 Shugo Imahira 23 103 361
367 Jason Dufner 52 103 362
368 Darius van Driel 49 102 375
369 CJ du Plessis 8 102 367
370 Marcus Kinhult 43 102 374
371 Ryan Brehm 41 101 363
372 Mark Anderson 26 101 352
373 Renato Paratore 55 101 371
374 Robby Shelton 36 101 369
375 Keenan Davidse 8 100 368
376 Rob Oppenheim 32 98 370
377 David Horsey 52 97 365
378 Michael Kim 36 96 377
379 Seth Reeves 31 96 366
380 Scott Harrington 35 95 364
381 Kristoffer Broberg 39 93 372
382 Aaron Cockerill 48 92 379
383 Kazuki Higa 22 91 385
384 Lee Slattery 29 91 384
385 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 38 90 376
386 Jim Knous 30 90 380
387 Stephen Stallings 11 90 382
388 Craig Howie 28 89 387
389 Daniel Gavins 39 89 381
390 Hiroshi Iwata 21 88 389
391 Keita Nakajima 15 87 391
392 Yuto Katsuragawa 14 87 390
393 Curtis Thompson 33 86 386
394 Nino Bertasio 51 86 388
395 David Dixon 14 84 394
396 Adrien Saddier 33 81 392
397 Rafael Campos 31 81 397
398 Dawie van der Walt 31 81 400
399 Grayson Murray 36 81 393
400 Gavin Green 54 80 402
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Perspectives on the Tour Championship

August 22, 2022 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the Tour Championship. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Justin Thomas 0.906
Xander Schauffele 0.858
Jon Rahm 0.813
Rory McIlroy 0.797
Hideki Matsuyama 0.766
Tony Finau 0.734
Patrick Cantlay 0.527
Sungjae Im 0.496

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Patrick Cantlay 1 1810.4
Jon Rahm 2 1697.2
Xander Schauffele 3 1652.0
Rory McIlroy 4 1647.1
Cameron Smith 5 1596.6
Scottie Scheffler 6 1494.7
Will Zalatoris 7 1416.7
Matthew Fitzpatrick 8 1415.2

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player Rank Rating
Dustin Johnson 12 1231.4
Joohyung Kim 13 1225.5
Shane Lowry 18 1159.4
Daniel Berger 23 1119.6

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Upward change
Tony Finau 1789.1
Sungjae Im 1697.4
Scott Stallings 1432.3
Brian Harman 1339.4
Patrick Cantlay 1313.3
Cameron Smith 1295.7
Xander Schauffele 1282.1
Joaquin Niemann 1258.0

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Downward change
Justin Thomas -836.1
Hideki Matsuyama -812.1
Collin Morikawa -463.2
Scottie Scheffler -297.5
Tom Hoge -190.6
Max Homa -182.3
Billy Horschel -22.9
Sam Burns -13.2

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the East Lake Golf Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value Statistic
0.30 Driving accuracy
0.28 Shots gained off the tee
0.15 Sand saves
0.14 Shots gained around the green

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Matthew Fitzpatrick 67.00
Sungjae Im 67.23
Billy Horschel 67.83
Xander Schauffele 67.88
Brian Harman 67.93
Rory McIlroy 67.93
Corey Conners 68.10
Cameron Young 68.21

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Sahith Theegala 69.9
Viktor Hovland 69.9
Adam Scott 69.9
Sepp Straka 69.8
Scott Stallings 69.7
Cameron Smith 69.7
Sam Burns 69.5
Tom Hoge 69.2

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Atlanta, the event host city.

Player Residence Distance
Sepp Straka Athens GA 50
Scott Stallings Knoxville Ten 150
JT Poston St. Simons Island GA 250
Brian Harman St. Simons Island GA 250
Cameron Smith Jacksonville FL 275
Billy Horschel Ponte Vedra Beach FL 300
Cameron Young Jupiter FL 525
Aaron Wise Jupiter FL 525
Justin Thomas Jupiter FL 525

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic Correlation to results
Top of the heap 0.348
I love this place 0.159
Ooh, that’s hot 0.139
Location, location, location 0.010

Tour Championship Power Ratings

August 22, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,
Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Xander Schauffele -4.3 4
2 Patrick Cantlay -1.5 8
3 Rory McIlroy 4.6 1
4 Jon Rahm 6.4 18
5 Cameron Smith 9.1 20
6 Matthew Fitzpatrick 17.9 16
7 Tony Finau 19.5 9
8 Cameron Young 19.8 19
9 Sungjae Im 21.1 2
10 Jordan Spieth 23.6 13
11 Justin Thomas 23.8 6
12 Will Zalatoris 24.2 DNP
13 Scottie Scheffler 24.4 3
14 Joaquin Niemann 27.6 11
15 Adam Scott 29.5 25
16 Corey Conners 30.6 26
17 Brian Harman 30.8 21
18 Viktor Hovland 31.1 15
19 Sam Burns 34.7 24
20 Collin Morikawa 36.7 21
21 Aaron Wise 37.5 14
22 Billy Horschel 38.9 21
23 Max Homa 41.1 5
24 Scott Stallings 41.9 29
25 Hideki Matsuyama 46.2 11
26 Sahith Theegala 46.5 28
27 JT Poston 48.9 17
28 KH Lee 49.9 27
29 Sepp Straka 53.1 7
30 Tom Hoge 58.7 10
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 202. The average is 159. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (Aug. 21, 2022)

August 22, 2022 Thomas Hawley

Patrick Cantlay is at a career-high rating after winning the BMW.
# Thru Aug. 21, 2022 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Patrick Cantlay 44 1810 1
2 Jon Rahm 45 1697 2
3 Xander Schauffele 48 1652 5
4 Rory McIlroy 46 1647 3
5 Cameron Smith 45 1597 4
6 Scottie Scheffler 57 1495 9
7 Will Zalatoris 52 1417 6
8 Matthew Fitzpatrick 51 1415 7
9 Justin Thomas 49 1402 8
10 Cameron Young 29 1378 10
11 Jordan Spieth 48 1269 12
12 Dustin Johnson 40 1231 13
13 Joohyung Kim 21 1225 11
14 Collin Morikawa 51 1199 14
15 Sam Burns 52 1196 16
16 Viktor Hovland 54 1176 15
17 Corey Conners 56 1173 21
18 Shane Lowry 54 1159 20
19 Tony Finau 57 1158 17
20 Sungjae Im 63 1152 18
21 Adam Scott 41 1141 24
22 Joaquin Niemann 54 1133 22
23 Daniel Berger 39 1120 19
24 Paul Casey 38 1066 23
25 Max Homa 52 1050 26
26 Brian Harman 55 1037 25
27 Tyrrell Hatton 54 1035 27
28 Tommy Fleetwood 55 1000 28
29 Aaron Wise 47 988 29
30 Abraham Ancer 55 936 30
31 Talor Gooch 53 933 32
32 Billy Horschel 54 926 31
33 Hideki Matsuyama 49 905 33
34 Taylor Pendrith 29 900 45
35 Louis Oosthuizen 39 896 36
36 Russell Henley 47 889 35
37 Seamus Power 44 873 34
38 Davis Riley 38 854 38
39 Mito Pereira 35 853 37
40 Keegan Bradley 59 853 39
41 Keith Mitchell 54 850 40
42 Bryson DeChambeau 37 830 41
43 Brooks Koepka 40 819 42
44 Kevin Na 48 805 44
45 Harold Varner 54 793 43
46 Sahith Theegala 41 784 53
47 Cameron Tringale 56 754 46
48 Chris Kirk 51 753 47
49 Brendan Steele 47 743 49
50 Alex Noren 51 737 48
51 Cameron Davis 51 733 50
52 Scott Stallings 57 730 66
53 Patrick Reed 54 730 52
54 Adam Hadwin 55 721 54
55 Maverick McNealy 53 718 57
56 Taylor Moore 30 718 51
57 Denny McCarthy 59 713 59
58 Kevin Kisner 52 708 55
59 Sergio Garcia 48 698 58
60 Si Woo Kim 60 693 56
61 Justin Rose 42 687 60
62 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 54 677 70
63 Jason Kokrak 49 671 61
64 Webb Simpson 43 670 62
65 Bubba Watson 34 669 63
66 Marc Leishman 52 664 65
67 Sebastian Munoz 60 659 64
68 KH Lee 60 646 77
69 JT Poston 58 639 67
70 Gary Woodland 48 633 68
71 Trey Mullinax 31 627 85
72 Ryan Palmer 49 626 69
73 Lucas Herbert 46 626 74
74 Matt Kuchar 47 610 71
75 Sepp Straka 64 602 72
76 Andrew Putnam 62 573 81
77 Tom Hoge 65 571 73
78 Branden Grace 54 566 75
79 Charles Howell 39 565 76
80 Matthew Wolff 40 556 80
81 Harris English 43 552 79
82 Troy Merritt 61 549 78
83 Kevin Streelman 57 546 82
84 Emiliano Grillo 58 543 95
85 Erik van Rooyen 50 541 83
86 Alex Smalley 37 534 84
87 Charl Schwartzel 47 530 87
88 Jason Day 41 529 86
89 Brendon Todd 55 510 91
90 Ian Poulter 55 509 88
91 Mac Hughes 58 507 89
92 Jhonattan Vegas 51 506 94
93 Thomas Pieters 44 504 92
94 Francesco Molinari 36 504 93
95 Lee Westwood 48 496 96
96 Christopher Gotterup 10 495 90
97 David Lipsky 39 490 97
98 Anirban Lahiri 47 485 99
99 Stewart Cink 51 481 103
100 Matt Jones 54 480 102
101 Matthew NeSmith 57 480 101
102 Lee Hodges 36 479 105
103 Lanto Griffin 54 475 104
104 Lucas Glover 58 475 98
105 Wyndham Clark 57 472 100
106 Adam Long 58 471 106
107 Pat Perez 52 470 107
108 Brandon Wu 33 466 108
109 Aaron Rai 56 458 110
110 Joel Dahmen 53 457 111
111 Nick Hardy 27 456 109
112 Kurt Kitayama 48 456 125
113 Robert MacIntyre 53 451 113
114 Chez Reavie 58 446 112
115 Doug Ghim 56 443 114
116 CT Pan 52 439 117
117 Russell Knox 60 439 115
118 John Huh 49 439 116
119 Charley Hoffman 53 435 119
120 Stephan Jaeger 39 432 121
121 JJ Spaun 57 431 128
122 Dylan Frittelli 59 430 120
123 Luke List 59 426 118
124 Sadom Kaewkanjana 10 426 123
125 Adam Svensson 34 424 122
126 Carlos Ortiz 51 421 124
127 Callum Tarren 29 410 126
128 Dean Burmester 51 405 129
129 Patton Kizzire 58 400 127
130 Cameron Champ 47 397 130
131 Michael Thompson 50 388 131
132 Martin Laird 49 386 133
133 Beau Hossler 56 385 132
134 Sam Horsfield 40 382 134
135 Adam Schenk 65 382 135
136 Hayden Buckley 34 380 136
137 Matt Wallace 58 378 137
138 Rickie Fowler 46 370 140
139 Chesson Hadley 56 367 141
140 Min Woo Lee 42 366 138
141 Scott Piercy 54 362 142
142 Nate Lashley 50 359 143
143 Thomas Detry 52 356 147
144 Steve Stricker 12 353 145
145 Mark Hubbard 57 348 148
146 James Hahn 50 348 146
147 Danny Willett 55 345 149
148 Oliver Bekker 25 338 150
149 Peter Malnati 61 332 151
150 Hennie du Plessis 21 332 144
151 Thriston Lawrence 28 329 159
152 Ryan Fox 42 327 155
153 Anthony Quayle 12 327 139
154 Jason Scrivener 42 326 152
155 Sam Ryder 62 326 156
156 Patrick Rodgers 64 326 158
157 Justin Lower 28 323 154
158 Rasmus Hojgaard 48 321 161
159 Zach Johnson 47 319 160
160 Robert Streb 58 319 162
161 Richard Bland 50 313 164
162 Tyler Duncan 60 313 163
163 Justin Harding 54 312 165
164 Jordan Smith 53 310 166
165 Vincent Whaley 59 310 167
166 Adrian Meronk 48 309 169
167 Doc Redman 56 306 170
168 Rory Sabbatini 49 301 172
169 Hudson Swafford 54 301 173
170 Adri Arnaus 49 298 174
171 Bernd Wiesberger 50 297 176
172 Patrick Flavin 10 295 153
173 Austin Smotherman 29 295 168
174 Harry Higgs 59 295 171
175 Martin Kaymer 36 293 179
176 Greyson Sigg 40 292 180
177 Hank Lebioda 53 292 175
178 Victor Perez 47 291 178
179 Nick Taylor 57 290 182
180 John Augenstein 13 287 157
181 Pablo Larrazabal 44 284 183
182 Hurly Long 29 279 181
183 Chase Koepka 8 278 184
184 Brandt Snedeker 51 278 185
185 MJ Daffue 16 275 211
186 Matthias Schwab 55 275 186
187 Fabrizio Zanotti 38 267 188
188 Guido Migliozzi 51 267 189
189 Cameron Percy 45 266 187
190 Mikko Korhonen 40 264 192
191 Padraig Harrington 40 263 191
192 Phil Mickelson 34 261 194
193 Ryan Armour 49 258 196
194 Danny Lee 48 258 195
195 Max McGreevy 31 257 197
196 Jamie Donaldson 49 256 190
197 Richy Werenski 57 251 198
198 Graeme McDowell 45 248 199
199 Chad Ramey 31 248 200
200 Garrick Higgo 58 246 201
201 Harry Hall 9 246 177
202 Yannik Paul 20 246 193
203 Brice Garnett 61 244 203
204 Brian Stuard 70 242 202
205 Alexander Bjork 44 240 204
206 Adrian Otaegui 56 237 205
207 Satoshi Kodaira 52 235 210
208 Laurie Canter 45 231 207
209 Ryan Moore 32 230 209
210 Kelly Kraft 48 224 208
211 Kramer Hickok 55 220 212
212 Thorbjorn Olesen 41 219 213
213 Antoine Rozner 52 219 215
214 Marcus Armitage 53 215 216
215 Michael Gligic 57 212 214
216 Andrew Johnston 20 209 221
217 Austin Eckroat 12 209 206
218 Tyler McCumber 36 206 222
219 Takumi Kanaya 39 206 219
220 Jinichiro Kozuma 25 204 218
221 Henrik Norlander 58 203 223
222 Romain Langasque 50 203 224
223 Kyle Stanley 48 201 220
224 Haotong Li 39 201 217
225 Henrik Stenson 48 199 227
226 Peter Uihlein 34 198 229
227 Edoardo Molinari 49 196 232
228 Roger Sloan 57 195 231
229 Julien Brun 21 192 228
230 Sean O’Hair 39 192 225
231 Richie Ramsay 49 192 234
232 Espen Kofstad 24 191 226
233 Marcus Helligkilde 20 191 236
234 Bo Hoag 57 191 230
235 Davis Thompson 12 191 263
236 Byeong Hun An 35 187 239
237 Dylan Wu 30 184 237
238 Matthias Schmid 33 183 238
239 Luke Donald 49 183 242
240 Andrew Novak 30 183 235
241 Seonghyeon Kim 9 181 332
242 Ryosuke Kinoshita 26 179 233
243 Johannes Veerman 49 179 240
244 Marcel Schneider 38 179 260
245 Jimmy Walker 40 178 249
246 Callum Shinkwin 45 178 247
247 Maximilian Kieffer 48 176 267
248 Sean Crocker 57 175 246
249 Travis Smyth 8 175 252
250 Richard Mansell 33 175 250
251 Todd Sinnott 10 175 253
252 Chase Seiffert 51 174 243
253 William McGirt 32 174 241
254 Calum Hill 36 172 254
255 Nicolai Hojgaard 44 172 256
256 Matthieu Pavon 53 171 248
257 Ben Martin 39 171 266
258 Kevin Tway 55 170 258
259 Joseph Bramlett 60 170 262
260 Andrew Landry 39 169 257
261 Vaughn Taylor 51 169 251
262 Kevin Chappell 33 169 245
263 Victor Dubuisson 29 168 244
264 Scott Jamieson 48 167 255
265 Austin Cook 58 166 277
266 Kalle Samooja 48 165 261
267 Wade Ormsby 41 163 265
268 Sami Valimaki 47 163 264
269 Shaun Norris 33 161 259
270 Robin Petersson 8 160 269
271 Jonathan Byrd 35 159 270
272 Ashun Wu 43 158 271
273 Masahiro Kawamura 57 158 274
274 Andy Sullivan 51 157 273
275 Tom Lewis 42 156 291
276 Scott Gutschewski 28 156 268
277 Jim Furyk 10 155 272
278 Justin Walters 54 155 280
279 Matthew Jordan 52 154 281
280 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 53 153 275
281 Trevor Fisher 8 153 286
282 Connor Syme 52 152 284
283 Wil Besseling 49 152 276
284 Shubhankar Sharma 54 151 287
285 Lukas Nemecz 20 151 285
286 Brandon Hagy 60 151 279
287 James Piot 9 151 288
288 Jens Dantorp 12 150 278
289 Bronson Burgoon 41 150 289
290 Nick Watney 55 150 292
291 JC Ritchie 26 150 293
292 Jorge Campillo 59 148 294
293 Camilo Villegas 55 148 283
294 David Law 55 148 297
295 Vincent Norman 8 148
296 Wilco Nienaber 46 145 305
297 John Catlin 52 145 296
298 Rafa Cabrera Bello 57 144 290
299 Marcel Siem 33 144 300
300 Brandon Stone 47 143 299
301 James Morrison 54 142 301
302 Justin Suh 16 142 282
303 Scott Brown 48 142 295
304 Bill Haas 53 142 298
305 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 23 140 313
306 Ewen Ferguson 35 140 303
307 Frederic LaCroix 20 138 302
308 Will Gordon 35 138 356
309 Tapio Pulkkanen 51 137 322
310 Julien Guerrier 52 134 307
311 George Coetzee 43 132 309
312 Eddie Pepperell 46 132 324
313 Grant Forrest 54 131 314
314 Niklas Norgaard Moller 22 131 304
315 Bryson Nimmer 8 130 312
316 Yuki Inamori 26 129 306
317 Francesco Laporta 53 128 315
318 Santiago Tarrio Ben 30 127 319
319 Bo Van Pelt 48 127 311
320 John Murphy 8 126 320
321 Chan Kim 29 125 310
322 Scott Vincent 29 125 323
323 Ross Fisher 50 124 321
324 Angel Hidalgo 14 123 308
325 Daniel van Tonder 43 122 326
326 Paul Barjon 35 122 316
327 Daniel Hillier 9 122 329
328 Brad Kennedy 15 122 317
329 Jazz Janewattananond 54 121 327
330 Jack Senior 52 121 342
331 Louis de Jager 33 120 366
332 Wesley Bryan 31 120 318
333 Jacques Kruyswijk 32 120 333
334 Joakim Lagergren 50 120 328
335 Joachim B Hansen 54 118 334
336 Aaron Baddeley 39 117 337
337 Ben Kohles 28 116 325
338 Jim Herman 41 115 341
339 Ben Taylor 23 115 330
340 Ricardo Gouveia 23 113 331
341 Martin Trainer 59 113 339
342 Paul Waring 41 113 335
343 Sebastian Soderberg 53 112 340
344 Chase Hanna 31 112 344
345 Ockie Strydom 8 112 348
346 Sihwan Kim 36 111 346
347 Sung Kang 63 111 343
348 Hideto Tanihara 18 111 338
349 Matthew Baldwin 21 111 347
350 Niall Kearney 30 111 345
351 Dale Whitnell 56 109 351
352 Mark Anderson 25 109 336
353 Alexander Levy 41 109 353
354 Jeff Winther 46 108 352
355 Rikuya Hoshino 30 107 350
356 Michael Gellerman 19 106 361
357 Joost Luiten 48 105 355
358 David Lingmerth 29 105 349
359 Darren Fichardt 36 105 358
360 Matthew Southgate 52 104 359
361 Shugo Imahira 24 103 357
362 Jason Dufner 52 102 364
363 Ryan Brehm 41 102 363
364 Scott Harrington 34 101 407
365 David Horsey 52 101 365
366 Seth Reeves 30 100 360
367 CJ du Plessis 8 100 371
368 Keenan Davidse 8 100 369
369 Robby Shelton 35 98 367
370 Rob Oppenheim 31 98 362
371 Renato Paratore 55 97 385
372 Kristoffer Broberg 39 96 373
373 Seung-yul Noh 33 95 368
374 Marcus Kinhult 43 95 382
375 Darius van Driel 49 95 375
376 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 37 94 377
377 Michael Kim 35 94 387
378 Daan Huizing 34 94 380
379 Aaron Cockerill 47 94 376
380 Jim Knous 29 92 384
381 Daniel Gavins 38 92 381
382 Stephen Stallings 11 92 354
383 Nacho Elvira 57 92 383
384 Lee Slattery 28 91 399
385 Kazuki Higa 23 91 370
386 Curtis Thompson 32 90 379
387 Craig Howie 29 89 374
388 Nino Bertasio 51 89 386
389 Hiroshi Iwata 22 88 392
390 Yuto Katsuragawa 14 87 372
391 Keita Nakajima 15 87 389
392 Adrien Saddier 33 86 390
393 Grayson Murray 35 85 404
394 David Dixon 14 83 378
395 Miguel Angel Jimenez 10 82 395
396 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 53 82 391
397 Rafael Campos 31 82 393
398 Robert Garrigus 22 81 388
399 Richard Sterne 25 79 396
400 Dawie van der Walt 30 79 394
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Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Perspectives on the BMW Championship

August 16, 2022 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the BMW event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Tony Finau 0.801
Jon Rahm 0.792
Rory McIlroy 0.749
Patrick Cantlay 0.719
Justin Thomas 0.695
Hideki Matsuyama 0.675
Xander Schauffele 0.539
Billy Horschel 0.459

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Patrick Cantlay 1 1719.6
Jon Rahm 2 1643.0
Rory McIlroy 3 1590.6
Xander Schauffele 5 1576.2
Will Zalatoris 6 1457.8
Matthew Fitzpatrick 7 1451.0
Justin Thomas 8 1444.1
Scottie Scheffler 9 1423.3

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player Rank Rating
Cameron Smith 4 1589.3
Dustin Johnson 13 1233.2
Daniel Berger 19 1117.3
Paul Casey 23 1066.0

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Upward change
Matthew Fitzpatrick 2397.3
Tony Finau 1812.5
Joohyung Kim 1481.2
Sungjae Im 1452.5
Xander Schauffele 1371.6
Patrick Cantlay 1348.9
Trey Mullinax 1284.0
Scott Stallings 1186.0

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Downward change
Keegan Bradley -857.1
Mito Pereira -801.7
Cameron Tringale -751.4
Sam Burns -676.7
Justin Thomas -673.1
Marc Leishman -644.5
Seamus Power -601.7
Sebastian Munoz -586.0

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

(Course characteristics data not available for Wilmington Country Club.)

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

(Course characteristics data not available for Wilmington Country Club.)

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

(Course characteristics data not available for Wilmington Country Club.)

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Wilmington DE, the event host city.

Player Residence Distance
Marc Leishman Virginia Beach VA 200
Keegan Bradley Woodstock VT 300
Alex Smalley Greensboro NC 350
Corey Conners Listowel ON 400
Harold Varner Charlotte NC 425
Mac Hughes Charlotte NC 425
Scott Stallings Knoxville Ten 525
Kevin Kisner Aiken SC 550

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic Correlation to results
Top of the heap 0.337
I love this place 0.152
Ooh, that’s hot 0.131
Location, location, location 0.008
Matthew Fitzpatrick

BMW Championship Power Ratings

August 16, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,
Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Patrick Cantlay -11.9 1
2 Joohyung Kim 0.6 54
3 Rory McIlroy 0.7 8
4 Jon Rahm 0.7 8
5 Xander Schauffele 1.2 3
6 Matthew Fitzpatrick 3.3 48
7 Tony Finau 9.1 28
8 Cameron Young 12.7 23
9 Will Zalatoris 17.2 WD
10 Collin Morikawa 19.4 44
11 Jordan Spieth 19.4 19
12 Justin Thomas 20.0 52
13 Sungjae Im 23.1 15
14 Brian Harman 23.5 35
15 Scottie Scheffler 24.3 3
16 Adam Scott 27.9 5
17 Tommy Fleetwood 29.3 DNP
18 Viktor Hovland 29.6 35
19 Joaquin Niemann 31.1 8
20 Corey Conners 32.5 5
21 Tyrrell Hatton 32.8 23
22 Shane Lowry 36.4 12
23 Max Homa 36.9 23
24 Hideki Matsuyama 37.0 35
25 Sam Burns 38.3 19
26 Billy Horschel 38.8 35
27 Taylor Moore 39.4 44
28 Keegan Bradley 40.3 58
29 Taylor Pendrith 40.9 8
30 Russell Henley 41.5 35
31 Cameron Davis 41.8 35
32 Aaron Wise 42.9 15
33 Scott Stallings 44.4 2
34 Kevin Kisner 44.6 48
35 Davis Riley 45.5 54
36 Si Woo Kim 46.2 67
37 Trey Mullinax 47.1 12
38 Sahith Theegala 48.3 15
39 JT Poston 48.5 35
40 Mito Pereira 48.8 54
41 Alex Noren 48.9 52
42 Brendan Steele 49.0 32
43 Chris Kirk 49.4 61
44 Seamus Power 49.8 65
45 Emiliano Grillo 49.8 19
46 Cameron Tringale 50.3 63
47 Keith Mitchell 50.4 32
48 Andrew Putnam 50.7 23
49 Alex Smalley 52.4 44
50 Denny McCarthy 52.6 28
51 Maverick McNealy 53.1 32
52 Adam Hadwin 53.2 44
53 Lucas Herbert 54.3 15
54 Harold Varner 54.4 48
55 Troy Merritt 54.8 58
56 Marc Leishman 55.1 28
57 Sepp Straka 55.2 28
58 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 56.4 12
59 Matt Kuchar 57.3 35
60 Sebastian Munoz 57.3 35
61 Lucas Glover 57.3 66
62 Wyndham Clark 58.1 64
63 Tom Hoge 58.2 48
64 KH Lee 58.7 5
65 Kurt Kitayama 58.9 19
66 Chez Reavie 62.1 54
67 Mac Hughes 62.7 58
68 Luke List 65.5 61
69 JJ Spaun 66.6 23
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The accuracy number for these picks is 352. The average is 160. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.