LIV Golf Invitational Bedminster Power Ratings

July 25, 2022 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson
Pick Player Finish Estimate Observed Odds
1 Dustin Johnson 22.7 5-1
2 Paul Casey 35.9 10-1
3 Abraham Ancer 37.5 11-1
4 Talor Gooch 40.3 13-1
5 Bryson DeChambeau 42.1 15-1
6 Louis Oosthuizen 43.0 16-1
7 Kevin Na 47.8 20-1
8 Brooks Koepka 48.0 22-1
9 Patrick Reed 50.4 25-1
10 Branden Grace 51.6 25-1
11 Charles Howell 52.6 30-1
12 Jason Kokrak 53.4 30-1
13 Sergio Garcia 54.4 35-1
14 Charl Schwartzel 54.8 35-1
15 Pat Perez 56.5 40-1
16 Matt Jones 57.8 45-1
17 Matthew Wolff 59.3 55-1
18 Lee Westwood 60.1 60-1
19 Ian Poulter 60.3 60-1
20 Sadom Kaewkanjana 60.3 60-1
21 Sam Horsfield 62.8 85-1
22 Hennie du Plessis 63.0 85-1
23 Carlos Ortiz 63.9 95-1
24 Richard Bland 65.3 100-1
25 Justin Harding 65.4 100-1
26 Hudson Swafford 67.9 150-1
27 Martin Kaymer 68.0 150-1
28 Bernd Wiesberger 68.3 150-1
29 Graeme McDowell 68.5 150-1
30 Phachara Khongwatmai 69.1 200-1
31 Jinichiro Kozuma 69.3 200-1
32 Phil Mickelson 70.0 200-1
33 Laurie Canter 70.1 250-1
34 Ryosuke Kinoshita 70.5 250-1
35 Henrik Stenson 71.7 300-1
36 Peter Uihlein 71.9 300-1
37 Turk Pettit 72.2 350-1
38 Chase Koepka 72.6 350-1
39 Wade Ormsby 72.9 400-1
40 Yuki Inamori 73.3 400-1
41 Scott Vincent 73.9 400-1
42 Shaun Norris 73.9 400-1
43 Hideto Tanihara 74.3 500-1
44 James Piot 74.5 500-1
45 Travis Smyth 75.6 500-1
46 Jed Morgan 78.1 500-1
47 Eugenio Chacarra 79.3 500-1
48 David Puig 79.4 500-1
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 234. The average is 160. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Perspectives on the 3M Open

July 18, 2022 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the 3M Open event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Tony Finau 0.299
Cameron Tringale 0.286
Brice Garnett 0.277
Charles Howell 0.275
Adam Hadwin 0.255
Adam Long 0.222
Bo Hoag 0.220
Roger Sloan 0.210

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Hideki Matsuyama 25 947.8
Sungjae Im 29 933.4
Tony Finau 30 930.5
Davis Riley 36 867.9
Cameron Tringale 41 841.7
Brendan Steele 46 779.3
Adam Hadwin 47 769.1
Maverick McNealy 53 722.6

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player Rank Rating
Patrick Cantlay 1 1699.0
Rory McIlroy 2 1640.1
Xander Schauffele 3 1622.1
Jon Rahm 4 1527.6

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Upward change
Nick Hardy 1220.5
Brendan Steele 1175.0
Chesson Hadley 835.8
Davis Riley 833.9
Chez Reavie 815.8
JT Poston 775.5
Tony Finau 733.5
Mark Hubbard 718.2

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Downward change
Sungjae Im -588.0
Tom Hoge -549.5
Erik van Rooyen -543.5
Lanto Griffin -459.9
Hideki Matsuyama -427.9
Lucas Glover -373.2
Troy Merritt -366.1
Cameron Champ -333.8

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value Statistic
0.18 Shots gained off the tee
0.18 Shots gained in approach
Driving accuracy
Driving distance

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Tony Finau 68.52
Hideki Matsuyama 68.56
Brendan Steele 68.64
Austin Smotherman 68.89
Sungjae Im 69.03
Martin Laird 69.07
Tom Hoge 69.09
Matthew NeSmith 69.12

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Brian Gay 72.8
Jonas Blixt 71.9
Richy Werenski 71.7
Martin Trainer 71.6
Harry Higgs 71.4
Bo Hoag 71.3
Seung-yul Noh 71.2
Kevin Tway 71.1

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Blaine MN, the event location.

Player Residence Distance
Tom Hoge Fargo ND 200
Scott Gutschewski Elkhorn NE 300
Nick Hardy Northbrook IL 350
Brice Garnett Gallatin Missouri 375
Ryan Brehm Mount Pleasant MI 425
Robert Streb Shawnee KS 425
Adam Schenk Vincennes IN 525
Bo Hoag Columbus Oh 625
Jason Day Columbus Oh 625

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic Correlation to results
Top of the heap 0.328
I love this place 0.167
Ooh, that’s hot 0.148
Location, location, location 0.011

3M Open

July 18, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,

Tony Finau
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Tony Finau 36.1 1
2 Adam Hadwin 36.7 38
3 Cameron Tringale 39.1 95
4 Davis Riley 40.9 76
5 Brendan Steele 41.3 104
6 Hideki Matsuyama 45.8 WD
7 Maverick McNealy 47.8 49
8 Sungjae Im 47.9 2
9 Sahith Theegala 49.4 95
10 Nick Hardy 50.7 58
11 Charles Howell 51.7 DNP
12 Adam Long 52.7 16
13 JT Poston 53.6 11
14 Cameron Davis 54.0 16
15 Brendon Todd 55.1 64
16 Chez Reavie 55.3 49
17 Ryan Palmer 57.7 31
18 Matthew NeSmith 58.0 72
19 Adam Svensson 58.2 104
20 Martin Laird 58.8 76
21 Mark Hubbard 59.4 DNP
22 Jason Day 60.4 64
23 Tom Hoge 61.0 4
24 Troy Merritt 61.4 49
25 Emiliano Grillo 61.4 2
26 Beau Hossler 61.6 84
27 Michael Thompson 61.6 26
28 Adam Schenk 62.1 54
29 Dylan Frittelli 62.2 95
30 Erik van Rooyen 62.2 DNP
31 Stewart Cink 62.3 24
32 Doug Ghim 62.4 16
33 Wyndham Clark 62.4 38
34 CT Pan 62.6 31
35 Chesson Hadley 63.1 10
36 Patton Kizzire 63.1 38
37 Hayden Buckley 63.2 26
38 Arjun Atwal 63.3 DQ
39 Scott Brown 63.6 16
40 Aaron Baddeley 63.6 49
41 Lanto Griffin 63.6 DNP
42 Bo Van Pelt 63.9 49
43 Michael Kim 64.1 DNP
44 Cameron Champ 64.4 16
45 Matt Every 64.5 128
46 David Hearn 64.6 116
47 Andrew Putnam 64.8 11
48 John Huh 64.9 84
49 John Merrick 64.9 132
50 Christopher Gotterup 65.0 31
51 Brandon Matthews 65.4 151
52 Robert Garrigus 65.4 WD
53 Ben Crane 65.6 95
54 JJ Henry 65.6 72
55 Mardy Fish 65.6 150
56 Cole Hammer 65.6 104
57 Mo Lim 65.6 140
58 Dylan Menante 65.6 84
59 Jeff Sorenson 65.6 140
60 Derek Lamely 65.6 104
61 Parker McLachlin 65.6 146
62 Eric Axley 65.6 DNP
63 John Huston 65.6 104
64 Carl Pettersson 65.6 DNP
65 Duffy Waldorf 65.6 DNP
66 John Rollins 65.6 DNP
67 Brian Davis 65.6 128
68 Kevin Stadler 65.6 152
69 George McNeill 65.6 58
70 DA Points 65.6 WD
71 Jason Bohn 65.6 84
72 David Lingmerth 65.6 70
73 Sangmoon Bae 65.6 DNP
74 Derek Ernst 65.7 95
75 Charlie Beljan 65.7 DNP
76 Ricky Barnes 65.7 45
77 DJ Trahan 65.8 116
78 Andres Romero 65.8 DNP
79 KJ Choi 65.8 95
80 Cameron Percy 65.9 26
81 Greg Chalmers 65.9 70
82 Chris Stroud 65.9 116
83 Tommy Gainey 65.9 104
84 Rickie Fowler 66.0 38
85 Nate Lashley 66.0 104
86 Ted Potter 66.0 104
87 Lucas Glover 66.3 104
88 Mark Hensby 66.3 DNP
89 Grayson Murray 66.3 64
90 Lee Hodges 66.3 16
91 Ryan Brehm 66.4 31
92 Sean O’Hair 66.5 76
93 Ben Martin 66.5 116
94 Justin Lower 66.7 104
95 Sam Ryder 66.9 76
96 Andrew Landry 67.2 132
97 Nick Taylor 67.4 84
98 Michael Gligic 67.6 16
99 Greyson Sigg 67.7 7
100 Callum Tarren 67.7 7
101 James Hahn 67.7 4
102 Austin Smotherman 67.8 24
103 Matthias Schwab 67.8 72
104 Scott Piercy 67.8 4
105 Garrick Higgo 68.0 132
106 Hank Lebioda 68.0 16
107 Tyler Duncan 68.0 45
108 Ryan Armour 68.1 104
109 Matt Wallace 68.2 26
110 Danny Willett 68.2 7
111 Brice Garnett 68.3 31
112 Bo Hoag 68.5 45
113 Peter Malnati 68.7 11
114 Stephan Jaeger 68.7 116
115 Danny Lee 68.8 DNP
116 Harry Higgs 68.8 76
117 Roger Sloan 68.9 38
118 Doc Redman 69.3 116
119 Kramer Hickok 69.6 116
120 Robert Streb 69.6 11
121 Chad Ramey 70.2 DNP
122 Satoshi Kodaira 70.2 64
123 Ryan Moore 70.4 95
124 Andrew Novak 70.9 54
125 Brian Stuard 70.9 95
126 Dylan Wu 71.1 132
127 Kelly Kraft 71.2 11
128 Bill Haas 71.3 84
129 Joseph Bramlett 71.4 104
130 Austin Cook 71.4 76
131 Richy Werenski 71.7 95
132 Kevin Chappell 71.9 69
133 Vaughn Taylor 72.3 84
134 Henrik Norlander 72.3 84
135 Chase Seiffert 72.5 45
136 Nick Watney 72.6 132
137 Scott Gutschewski 72.7 31
138 Jonathan Byrd 72.7 58
139 Brandon Hagy 73.1 128
140 Camilo Villegas 73.1 58
141 Jason Dufner 73.4 146
142 Max McGreevy 73.5 140
143 Kevin Tway 73.6 76
144 Ben Kohles 73.7 84
145 Wesley Bryan 74.3 153
146 Paul Barjon 74.5 31
147 Seung-yul Noh 74.6 38
148 Jim Knous 74.8 64
149 Martin Trainer 75.0 76
150 Curtis Thompson 75.4 116
151 Seth Reeves 75.6 84
152 Sung Kang 75.6 128
153 Joshua Creel 75.7 84
154 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 75.9 116
155 Jared Wolfe 76.0 54
156 Dawie van der Walt 76.3 38
157 David Skinns 76.5 54
158 Jonas Blixt 76.9 72
159 Brian Gay 77.0 132
160 Brett Drewitt 77.9 140
Joohyung Kim late entry 29
Paul Goydos late entry 59
Rick Lamb late entry 63
Daniel Gale late entry 121
Cody Gribble late entry 126
Andre Metzger late entry 127
Jason Gore late entry 134
Jeff Overton late entry 135
Daniel Chopra late entry 142
Chris Naegel late entry 148
Ted Purdy late entry 149
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 322. The average is 160. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Cazoo Classic

July 18, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,
Robert MacIntyre
Robert MacIntyre
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Robert MacIntyre 60.4 20
2 Thriston Lawrence 61.9 71
3 Oliver Bekker 62.3 64
4 Adrian Otaegui 68.3 29
5 Thorbjorn Olesen 68.7 11
6 Antoine Rozner 69.6 34
7 Alexander Bjork 69.7 DNP
8 Romain Langasque 69.9 46
9 Sami Valimaki 70.0 DNP
10 Edoardo Molinari 70.5 83
11 Takumi Kanaya 71.3 114
12 Victor Dubuisson 72.0 11
13 Richie Ramsay 72.0 1
14 Marcus Armitage 72.1 16
15 Jorge Campillo 72.2 52
16 Sean Crocker 72.2 114
17 JC Ritchie 72.4 46
18 Lukas Nemecz 72.5 34
19 Frederic LaCroix 72.7 56
20 Richard Mansell 72.9 29
21 Matthew Jordan 73.5 34
22 Masahiro Kawamura 73.6 83
23 Callum Shinkwin 74.0 16
24 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 74.1 71
25 Niall Kearney 74.2 71
26 Wilco Nienaber 74.4 69
27 Sihwan Kim 74.5 46
28 Matthew Southgate 74.7 56
29 Andy Sullivan 74.8 8
30 Santiago Tarrio Ben 74.9 11
31 Ross Fisher 74.9 56
32 Dale Whitnell 75.0 66
33 Angel Hidalgo 75.1 8
34 Julien Guerrier 75.1 3
35 Joachim B Hansen 75.2 DNP
36 Darius van Driel 75.2 29
37 Ewen Ferguson 75.2 89
38 Bi-o Kim 75.2 DNP
39 Jack Senior 75.3 41
40 Grant Forrest 75.4 3
41 Jazz Janewattananond 75.5 106
42 Darren Fichardt 75.7 20
43 Jacques Blaauw 75.7 124
44 Louis de Jager 75.8 89
45 David Horsey 75.8 56
46 Kristoffer Broberg 75.9 60
47 Daniel Gavins 75.9 101
48 Craig Howie 76.1 29
49 Paul Waring 76.2 2
50 Eddie Pepperell 76.3 11
51 Nacho Elvira 76.6 34
52 Marcus Kinhult 76.9 3
53 Richard Sterne 76.9 20
54 Marc Warren 76.9 124
55 Daan Huizing 77.0 3
56 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 77.1 DNP
57 Bryce Easton 77.2 71
58 Zander Lombard 77.4 52
59 Ashley Chesters 77.5 34
60 Gavin Green 77.6 26
61 Pep Angles 77.6 114
62 Stephen Gallacher 77.6 114
63 Hugo Leon 77.6 61
64 Blake Windred 77.7 71
65 Lee Slattery 77.8 11
66 Andrew Wilson 77.8 34
67 Soren Kjeldsen 77.9 71
68 Oliver Farr 77.9 46
69 Robert Rock 77.9 133
70 Alvaro Quiros 77.9 101
71 Lorenzo Gagli 77.9 71
72 Jack Singh Brar 78.0 89
73 Garrick Porteous 78.0 16
74 Josh Geary 78.0 120
75 Matthew Baldwin 78.1 20
76 Ricardo Santos 78.2 41
77 Richard McEvoy 78.2 34
78 Scott Hend 78.2 120
79 Alejandro Canizares 78.2 106
80 Pedro Oriol 78.3 89
81 Chris Paisley 78.4 120
82 Ross McGowan 78.4 83
83 Steven Brown 78.5 71
84 Damien Perrier 78.5 64
85 Robin Roussel 78.6 46
86 David Drysdale 78.7 26
87 Dave Coupland 78.7 106
88 Ben Evans 78.8 101
89 Jonathan Caldwell 78.8 71
90 Bobby Bai 78.9 106
91 Jordan Wrisdale 79.1 20
92 Jesper Svensson 79.1 131
93 Jake McLeod 79.1 101
94 Raphael Jacquelin 79.2 41
95 David Dixon 79.2 124
96 Cormac Sharvin 79.2 71
97 Ben Stow 79.3 41
98 Eduardo de la Riva 79.3 124
99 Jamie Lovemark 79.4 DNP
100 Oliver Fisher 79.4 70
101 Dimitrios Papadatos 79.4 133
102 Pedro Figueiredo 79.4 61
103 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 79.4 41
104 Daniel Hillier 79.4 68
105 Liam Johnston 79.5 83
106 Anton Karlsson 79.6 66
107 Nick McCarthy 79.6 89
108 Matt Ford 79.6 83
109 David Howell 79.7 89
110 Jonathan Thomson 79.7 120
111 Stuart Manley 79.7 52
112 Tom Gandy 79.7 106
113 Jens Dantorp 79.7 8
114 Paul Dunne 79.8 124
115 Tyler Koivisto 79.9 WD
116 Jarryd Felton 79.9 52
117 Gavin Moynihan 80.0 89
118 Graeme Storm 80.0 131
119 Henric Sturehed 80.0 46
120 Todd Clements 80.0 26
121 Simon Thornton 80.0 89
122 Rod Pampling 80.0 135
123 Robin Petersson 80.0 3
124 Alfie Plant 80.0 29
125 Bjorn Hellgren 80.0 137
126 Frank Kennedy 80.0 71
127 Laird Shepherd 80.0 135
128 Aman Gupta 80.0 61
129 Ryan Evans 80.0 106
130 Dan Bradbury 80.0 114
131 Harley Smith 80.0 106
132 Adam Keogh 80.0 106
133 Greig Hutcheon 80.0 114
134 David Higgins 80.0 89
135 Hui-lin Zhang 80.0 89
136 Jesper Kennegard 80.0 124
137 Kristof Ulenaers 80.0 71
Valimaki Sami late entry 19
Bjork Alexander late entry 21
Siddikur Rahman late entry 88
Gary Boyd late entry 89
Thomas Thurloway late entry 99
Jack McDonald late entry 103
Bradley Bawden late entry 124
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 73. The average is 160. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (July 17, 2022)

July 18, 2022 Thomas Hawley

Patrick Cantlay stays no. 1 after a top-10 finish in the Open Championship.
# Thru July 17, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Patrick Cantlay 45 1699 1
2 Rory McIlroy 48 1640 4
3 Xander Schauffele 50 1622 2
4 Jon Rahm 47 1528 3
5 Cameron Smith 48 1505 7
6 Scottie Scheffler 59 1466 5
7 Justin Thomas 51 1382 6
8 Matthew Fitzpatrick 53 1333 9
9 Will Zalatoris 51 1317 8
10 Cameron Young 29 1258 16
11 Jordan Spieth 50 1257 10
12 Dustin Johnson 43 1226 13
13 Viktor Hovland 56 1160 19
14 Shane Lowry 55 1158 12
15 Daniel Berger 43 1119 15
16 Sam Burns 53 1119 11
17 Collin Morikawa 53 1087 14
18 Corey Conners 58 1067 20
19 Paul Casey 42 1037 17
20 Max Homa 53 1037 18
21 Joaquin Niemann 57 1003 21
22 Tommy Fleetwood 59 989 32
23 Tyrrell Hatton 55 967 30
24 Billy Horschel 56 956 26
25 Hideki Matsuyama 51 948 22
26 Adam Scott 40 941 33
27 Abraham Ancer 58 939 34
28 Brian Harman 56 938 41
29 Sungjae Im 64 933 23
30 Tony Finau 57 930 29
31 Seamus Power 44 926 24
32 Keegan Bradley 59 900 27
33 Louis Oosthuizen 42 899 25
34 Talor Gooch 56 897 31
35 Mito Pereira 36 883 28
36 Davis Riley 36 868 35
37 Harold Varner 54 862 39
38 Aaron Wise 46 859 38
39 Bryson DeChambeau 40 849 51
40 Keith Mitchell 54 843 37
41 Cameron Tringale 54 842 36
42 Brooks Koepka 42 811 40
43 Kevin Na 51 810 43
44 Russell Henley 48 805 42
45 Alex Noren 53 784 49
46 Brendan Steele 47 779 45
47 Adam Hadwin 55 769 48
48 Chris Kirk 51 769 46
49 Webb Simpson 44 765 44
50 Joohyung Kim 17 745 47
51 Kevin Kisner 53 733 55
52 Justin Rose 43 725 50
53 Maverick McNealy 53 723 53
54 Patrick Reed 58 704 52
55 Si Woo Kim 60 699 66
56 Jason Kokrak 53 688 56
57 Sahith Theegala 38 685 60
58 Sebastian Munoz 61 683 54
59 Denny McCarthy 59 679 58
60 Bubba Watson 38 674 61
61 Sergio Garcia 50 660 57
62 Gary Woodland 50 657 59
63 Marc Leishman 54 653 62
64 Matt Kuchar 48 649 65
65 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 54 643 63
66 Harris English 45 618 64
67 Ryan Palmer 50 596 67
68 Taylor Pendrith 28 587 69
69 Lucas Herbert 46 585 84
70 Kevin Streelman 58 584 68
71 Cameron Davis 50 577 75
72 Charles Howell 41 566 71
73 Jason Day 41 556 74
74 Scott Stallings 56 553 76
75 Tom Hoge 66 550 72
76 Mac Hughes 58 549 70
77 Erik van Rooyen 52 544 73
78 Brendon Todd 57 543 78
79 Branden Grace 55 533 79
80 JT Poston 59 528 77
81 Nick Hardy 26 528 87
82 Jhonattan Vegas 51 518 81
83 Alex Smalley 33 516 83
84 Francesco Molinari 36 513 113
85 Matthew NeSmith 57 512 85
86 KH Lee 60 510 80
87 Thomas Pieters 45 507 98
88 Charl Schwartzel 48 502 89
89 Ian Poulter 56 500 82
90 Joel Dahmen 54 497 90
91 Sepp Straka 63 497 86
92 Troy Merritt 61 494 92
93 Matthew Wolff 43 488 94
94 Lanto Griffin 58 487 93
95 CT Pan 51 477 97
96 Stewart Cink 48 476 91
97 Taylor Moore 28 476 88
98 Matt Jones 57 476 99
99 Adam Long 59 474 100
100 Pat Perez 53 471 101
101 Aaron Rai 59 470 95
102 Chez Reavie 58 467 106
103 David Lipsky 39 466 103
104 Doug Ghim 54 466 96
105 Lee Westwood 49 457 105
106 Luke List 59 455 102
107 Robert MacIntyre 55 451 107
108 Sadom Kaewkanjana 9 447 462
109 Patton Kizzire 55 446 104
110 Adam Svensson 33 435 108
111 Anirban Lahiri 46 431 109
112 Russell Knox 59 431 110
113 Taylor Montgomery 9 423 112
114 Beau Hossler 56 417 114
115 Emiliano Grillo 58 416 111
116 Martin Laird 46 412 125
117 Dylan Frittelli 60 403 126
118 Rickie Fowler 45 400 116
119 Oliver Bekker 22 398 118
120 Wyndham Clark 57 395 115
121 Dean Burmester 55 388 166
122 Kurt Kitayama 49 387 117
123 John Huh 45 385 119
124 Charley Hoffman 54 382 121
125 Nate Lashley 51 381 123
126 Lucas Glover 56 381 122
127 Andrew Putnam 59 380 120
128 Mark Hubbard 58 376 132
129 Hennie du Plessis 19 376 129
130 Carlos Ortiz 54 375 128
131 Adam Schenk 64 371 130
132 Anthony Quayle 11 370 463
133 Brandon Wu 33 365 124
134 Sam Horsfield 43 362 127
135 Min Woo Lee 46 362 162
136 Steve Stricker 13 354 131
137 Hayden Buckley 33 347 133
138 Thomas Detry 53 342 145
139 JJ Spaun 55 339 137
140 Thriston Lawrence 26 338 143
141 Cameron Champ 48 334 138
142 Lee Hodges 35 333 139
143 Trey Mullinax 28 332 189
144 Michael Thompson 50 331 155
145 Ryan Fox 46 330 134
146 Richard Bland 52 328 136
147 Zach Johnson 48 328 135
148 Nick Taylor 57 327 141
149 Patrick Flavin 9 326 142
150 Jason Scrivener 45 324 144
151 Rasmus Hojgaard 51 323 140
152 Jordan Smith 56 320 149
153 Patrick Rodgers 64 320 147
154 Sam Ryder 61 318 148
155 James Hahn 46 317 150
156 Austin Smotherman 27 315 178
157 Rory Sabbatini 49 313 152
158 Matthias Schwab 55 310 146
159 Harry Higgs 58 310 167
160 Danny Willett 56 309 154
161 Matt Wallace 59 308 159
162 Peter Malnati 59 306 157
163 Adrian Meronk 52 305 164
164 John Augenstein 12 304 161
165 Adri Arnaus 51 302 153
166 Bernd Wiesberger 52 301 151
167 Scott Piercy 53 301 156
168 Hurly Long 28 300 190
169 Victor Perez 49 299 176
170 Hudson Swafford 53 299 163
171 Justin Harding 56 298 158
172 Justin Lower 27 297 180
173 Tyler Duncan 61 296 165
174 Doc Redman 55 292 160
175 Harry Hall 8 288 171
176 Vincent Whaley 58 284 173
177 Pablo Larrazabal 48 282 168
178 Chad Ramey 31 279 169
179 Robert Streb 56 278 170
180 Hank Lebioda 51 278 172
181 Stephan Jaeger 38 271 187
182 Chesson Hadley 54 271 183
183 Brandt Snedeker 55 271 182
184 Jamie Donaldson 50 269 177
185 Ryan Armour 51 267 179
186 Garrick Higgo 56 266 186
187 Danny Lee 51 266 184
188 Padraig Harrington 40 266 174
189 Fabrizio Zanotti 38 266 175
190 Greyson Sigg 39 260 191
191 Callum Tarren 28 259 195
192 Guido Migliozzi 54 258 185
193 Phil Mickelson 36 257 181
194 Mikko Korhonen 41 255 188
195 Graeme McDowell 48 248 194
196 Kramer Hickok 53 247 193
197 Martin Kaymer 38 247 192
198 Brice Garnett 59 239 207
199 Austin Eckroat 11 238 199
200 Yannik Paul 18 236 214
201 Brian Stuard 70 235 198
202 Alexander Bjork 47 234 196
203 Takumi Kanaya 36 230 197
204 Satoshi Kodaira 48 230 202
205 Adrian Otaegui 58 228 203
206 Laurie Canter 48 228 200
207 Antoine Rozner 53 226 205
208 MJ Daffue 16 221 208
209 Thorbjorn Olesen 43 220 209
210 Sean O’Hair 36 220 201
211 Haotong Li 42 215 206
212 Dylan Wu 29 215 204
213 Andrew Novak 29 210 216
214 Kevin Chappell 29 210 210
215 Kyle Stanley 49 210 213
216 Edoardo Molinari 50 209 218
217 Jinichiro Kozuma 22 209 217
218 Romain Langasque 52 208 215
219 Espen Kofstad 21 208 245
220 Andrew Johnston 23 207 219
221 Tyler McCumber 38 205 221
222 Marcus Armitage 56 204 212
223 Ryosuke Kinoshita 23 201 223
224 Marcus Helligkilde 17 201 286
225 William McGirt 29 199 227
226 Julien Brun 20 199 211
227 Henrik Stenson 50 198 220
228 Michael Gligic 55 197 229
229 Byeong Hun An 38 196 226
230 Chase Seiffert 49 195 222
231 Roger Sloan 55 195 225
232 Andrew Landry 41 194 228
233 Henrik Norlander 56 191 233
234 Kelly Kraft 44 191 234
235 Ryan Moore 32 189 224
236 Richy Werenski 58 186 230
237 Johannes Veerman 49 183 231
238 Richie Ramsay 52 182 237
239 Victor Dubuisson 25 182 235
240 Joseph Bramlett 58 181 239
241 Luke Donald 48 180 240
242 Jonathan Byrd 33 180 232
243 Marcel Schneider 39 179 242
244 Scott Jamieson 49 177 265
245 Peter Uihlein 36 176 247
246 Bo Hoag 56 174 238
247 Todd Sinnott 10 173 246
248 Matthieu Pavon 55 173 257
249 Sean Crocker 57 173 281
250 Richard Mansell 28 172 236
251 JC Ritchie 26 172 250
252 Matthias Schmid 31 172 253
253 Vaughn Taylor 47 172 241
254 Justin Suh 16 171 244
255 Calum Hill 40 171 251
256 Wade Ormsby 41 170 252
257 Kalle Samooja 50 169 254
258 Austin Cook 56 168 248
259 Cameron Percy 44 168 249
260 Jimmy Walker 41 168 260
261 Sami Valimaki 49 168 256
262 Lukas Nemecz 18 166 258
263 Maximilian Kieffer 50 166 262
264 Jim Furyk 12 165 259
265 Davis Thompson 11 165 264
266 Nicolai Hojgaard 49 164 269
267 Brandon Hagy 58 164 255
268 Camilo Villegas 54 161 261
269 Matthew Jordan 55 160 263
270 Bill Haas 51 159 283
271 Ashun Wu 43 159 268
272 Scott Gutschewski 27 158 364
273 Brandon Stone 49 158 272
274 Rafa Cabrera Bello 58 157 273
275 James Morrison 56 157 285
276 Masahiro Kawamura 60 156 275
277 Max McGreevy 30 156 267
278 Marcel Siem 33 155 266
279 Wil Besseling 53 155 276
280 Jorge Campillo 60 153 280
281 Shaun Norris 33 151 271
282 Kevin Tway 53 151 298
283 Tom Lewis 45 151 270
284 Frederic LaCroix 16 151 282
285 Justin Walters 58 150 277
286 Shubhankar Sharma 59 149 284
287 John Catlin 53 148 279
288 Trevor Fisher 8 147 287
289 Wesley Bryan 28 147 274
290 Bronson Burgoon 43 146 289
291 Niklas Norgaard Moller 20 145 278
292 Yuki Inamori 23 144 290
293 Stephen Stallings 8 143 288
294 Callum Shinkwin 47 142 293
295 Andy Sullivan 52 139 296
296 Nick Watney 53 139 292
297 George Coetzee 43 137 291
298 Bo Van Pelt 46 137 295
299 David Law 56 136 297
300 Ben Kohles 27 134 299
301 Wilco Nienaber 45 134 303
302 Francesco Laporta 53 133 310
303 Bryson Nimmer 8 132 305
304 Brad Kennedy 14 131 318
305 Connor Syme 53 131 308
306 Tapio Pulkkanen 52 130 311
307 Ben Martin 39 130 302
308 Joachim B Hansen 55 129 312
309 Chan Kim 29 129 301
310 Ross Fisher 51 128 313
311 Scott Vincent 32 128 300
312 Ricardo Gouveia 21 127 304
313 Hideto Tanihara 16 127 314
314 Aaron Baddeley 37 126 307
315 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 20 124 306
316 Martin Trainer 57 124 325
317 David Lingmerth 26 123 309
318 Niall Kearney 26 122 323
319 Jim Herman 44 122 319
320 Daniel van Tonder 43 121 322
321 Joakim Lagergren 51 121 315
322 Angel Hidalgo 9 121 324
323 Grant Forrest 53 120 326
324 Paul Barjon 34 120 317
325 Santiago Tarrio Ben 28 120 316
326 Seonghyeon Kim 8 118 331
327 Ewen Ferguson 35 118 332
328 Jazz Janewattananond 53 116 334
329 Chase Hanna 28 116 321
330 Sebastian Soderberg 55 115 327
331 Ben Taylor 24 115 337
332 Jacques Kruyswijk 34 115 336
333 Jack Senior 52 115 335
334 James Piot 8 114 339
335 Robby Shelton 39 113 328
336 Jeff Winther 47 113 338
337 Mark Anderson 26 113 342
338 Shugo Imahira 22 112 320
339 Sihwan Kim 40 112 333
340 Rikuya Hoshino 28 111 330
341 Rob Oppenheim 32 111 341
342 Matthew Southgate 54 111 344
343 Julien Guerrier 52 110 346
344 David Horsey 53 110 345
345 Robert Garrigus 21 109 329
346 Will Gordon 36 109 348
347 Dale Whitnell 57 109 340
348 Jason Dufner 52 108 343
349 Joost Luiten 50 107 352
350 Alexander Levy 43 107 353
351 Sung Kang 63 106 350
352 Yuto Katsuragawa 12 106 405
353 Darren Fichardt 33 106 355
354 Curtis Thompson 31 105 347
355 Ockie Strydom 8 104 357
356 Jim Knous 25 104 354
357 Daniel Gavins 36 104 351
358 Tiger Woods 9 103 294
359 Aaron Cockerill 50 103 361
360 Kristoffer Broberg 37 103 358
361 Kazuki Higa 21 101 349
362 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 38 100 356
363 Louis de Jager 31 100 360
364 Craig Howie 26 100 359
365 Jacques Blaauw 9 99 362
366 Keenan Davidse 8 98 363
367 Michael Gellerman 21 96 369
368 Ryan Brehm 39 95 366
369 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 50 92 367
370 Nino Bertasio 50 92 396
371 Darius van Driel 51 91 374
372 Seung-yul Noh 30 91 371
373 Eddie Pepperell 45 90 373
374 CJ du Plessis 8 90 376
375 Seth Reeves 29 89 370
376 Grayson Murray 32 87 372
377 Keita Nakajima 15 87 365
378 Scott Brown 47 87 375
379 Adrien Saddier 36 86 377
380 Chris Stroud 16 86 368
381 Michael Kim 36 85 380
382 Nacho Elvira 58 85 379
383 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 54 84 382
384 Hiroshi Iwata 20 84 381
385 Marcus Kinhult 43 83 378
386 Rafael Campos 31 82 383
387 Chris Baker 27 80 384
388 Jared Wolfe 26 79 386
389 Joshua Creel 24 78 492
390 Richard Sterne 23 78 387
391 Oscar Lengden 10 77 390
392 Josh Teater 24 77 389
393 Paul Waring 38 77 391
394 David Skinns 24 77 393
395 Fabian Gomez 36 77 392
396 Bryce Easton 32 75 395
397 Nicolas Colsaerts 31 75 394
398 Ollie Schniederjans 10 75 388
399 Dawie van der Walt 29 74 385
400 Scott Harrington 35 74 397
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Perspectives on the Open Championship

July 11, 2022 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the British Open. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Jordan Spieth 0.688
Justin Rose 0.537
Brooks Koepka 0.518
Tony Finau 0.508
Rory McIlroy 0.505
Sergio Garcia 0.479
Louis Oosthuizen 0.464
Henrik Stenson 0.463

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Patrick Cantlay 1 1620.8
Xander Schauffele 2 1588.0
Jon Rahm 3 1552.1
Rory McIlroy 4 1537.9
Scottie Scheffler 5 1452.0
Justin Thomas 6 1425.2
Cameron Smith 7 1376.9
Will Zalatoris 8 1320.6

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player Rank Rating
Daniel Berger 15 1119.3
Davis Riley 35 866.5
Brendan Steele 45 778.9
Adam Hadwin 48 768.2

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Upward change
Xander Schauffele 1606.0
Sahith Theegala 1520.8
Patrick Cantlay 1509.8
Tony Finau 1270.1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 1209.9
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1130.3
Keith Mitchell 1086.8
JT Poston 1002.6

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Downward change
Keegan Bradley -907.8
Justin Thomas -842.3
Viktor Hovland -803.8
Russell Henley -762.4
Jason Kokrak -683.3
Tyrrell Hatton -666.1
Mito Pereira -618.8
Brooks Koepka -607.0

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the typical British Open course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on British Open courses within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value Statistic
0.23 Shots gained in approach
0.17 Sand saves
0.15 Shots gained around the green
0.09 Driving accuracy

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Bernd Wiesberger 69.22
Sam Horsfield 69.45
Xander Schauffele 69.77
Matthew Fitzpatrick 69.87
Talor Gooch 69.98
Justin Thomas 69.99
Shane Lowry 70.04
Pablo Larrazabal 70.18

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Garrick Higgo 73.9
Guido Migliozzi 73.9
Nicolai Hojgaard 73.4
Erik van Rooyen 73.2
Viktor Hovland 72.9
Brooks Koepka 72.9
Zander Lombard 72.9
Abraham Ancer 72.8

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and St. Andrews, Scotland, the event location.

Player Residence Distance
Victor Perez Dundee, Scotland 10
Robert MacIntyre Oban, Scotland 100
Rory McIlroy Holywood, Northern Ireland 175
Tommy Fleetwood Southport, England 175
Sam Horsfield Manchester, UK 200
Matthew Fitzpatrick Sheffield, England 200
Danny Willett Sheffield, England 200
Tyrrell Hatton Marlow, Buckinghamshire, England 350

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic Correlation to results
Top of the heap 0.326
I love this place 0.166
Ooh, that’s hot 0.146
Location, location, location 0.012

150th Open Championship

July 11, 2022 Thomas Hawley , ,
Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Xander Schauffele 7.3 15
2 Patrick Cantlay 9.0 8
3 Rory McIlroy 9.6 3
4 Jon Rahm 20.2 34
5 Jordan Spieth 21.2 8
6 Matthew Fitzpatrick 21.3 21
7 Scottie Scheffler 22.5 21
8 Will Zalatoris 26.9 28
9 Cameron Smith 28.1 1
10 Justin Thomas 31.7 53
11 Tony Finau 32.9 28
12 Shane Lowry 34.5 21
13 Max Homa 35.1 84
14 Dustin Johnson 36.1 6
15 Joaquin Niemann 38.7 53
16 Collin Morikawa 38.8 84
17 Sam Burns 39.7 42
18 Keith Mitchell 39.9 84
19 Corey Conners 40.0 28
20 Aaron Wise 42.3 34
21 Cameron Tringale 42.9 62
22 Sungjae Im 42.9 81
23 Cameron Young 43.2 2
24 Tommy Fleetwood 43.7 4
25 Seamus Power 43.9 117
26 Sahith Theegala 44.0 34
27 Brian Harman 44.9 6
28 Hideki Matsuyama 45.1 68
29 Talor Gooch 45.2 34
30 Abraham Ancer 45.4 11
31 Viktor Hovland 45.8 4
32 Brooks Koepka 46.6 117
33 Adam Scott 46.8 15
34 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 46.9 68
35 Billy Horschel 47.1 21
36 Kevin Na 47.8 117
37 Chris Kirk 48.5 42
38 Harold Varner 48.6 28
39 Webb Simpson 48.8 84
40 Patrick Reed 48.9 47
41 Mito Pereira 49.5 125
42 Tyrrell Hatton 49.8 11
43 Justin Rose 50.6 WD
44 Keegan Bradley 51.1 107
45 JT Poston 52.3 98
46 Sebastian Munoz 52.9 62
47 Gary Woodland 53.1 134
48 Russell Henley 53.2 62
49 Phil Mickelson 54.1 125
50 Kevin Kisner 54.2 21
51 Marc Leishman 54.9 134
52 Sergio Garcia 55.0 68
53 Mac Hughes 55.3 117
54 Louis Oosthuizen 55.5 84
55 Paul Casey 56.9 53
56 Joohyung Kim 57.4 47
57 Si Woo Kim 57.8 15
58 Jason Kokrak 58.0 42
59 Wyndham Clark 58.2 76
60 Thomas Pieters 58.6 28
61 KH Lee 59.7 98
62 Emiliano Grillo 60.2 98
63 Luke List 60.3 125
64 Ian Poulter 60.5 62
65 Lee Westwood 60.9 34
66 Francesco Molinari 61.0 15
67 Stewart Cink 61.9 125
68 Tom Hoge 62.1 134
69 Lucas Herbert 62.3 15
70 Tiger Woods 62.7 148
71 Erik van Rooyen 62.7 WD
72 Robert MacIntyre 62.9 34
73 Sam Horsfield 63.0 146
74 Ryan Fox 63.3 98
75 Sepp Straka 63.7 148
76 Thriston Lawrence 64.1 42
77 Jordan Smith 64.2 47
78 Zach Johnson 64.3 107
79 Ernie Els 64.3 84
80 Darren Clarke 64.6 150
81 Scott Vincent 64.6 84
82 Sihwan Kim 64.6 125
83 Min Kyu Kim 65.0 DNP
84 Thomas Detry 65.2 34
85 Brad Kennedy 65.3 53
86 Chan Kim 65.3 98
87 Kazuki Higa 65.3 125
88 Jack Floydd 65.3 150
89 Anthony Quayle 65.3 15
90 Justin Harding 65.3 84
91 Yuto Katsuragawa 65.4 47
92 Justin de los Santos 65.4 74
93 Matthew Griffin 65.5 98
94 Jason Scrivener 65.5 53
95 Mingyu Cho 65.5 117
96 Dimitrios Papadatos 65.5 141
97 Dylan Frittelli 65.6 28
98 Marco Penge 65.6 125
99 Sam Bairstow 65.6 81
100 Barclay Brown 65.6 79
101 Mark Calcavecchia 65.6 156
102 Ben J Campbell 65.6 DNP
103 David Carey 65.6 62
104 Filippo Celli 65.6 47
105 John Daly 65.6 107
106 Robert Dinwiddie 65.6 53
107 Stephen Dodd 65.6 141
108 David Duval 65.6 154
109 Jorge Fernandez-Valdes 65.6 141
110 Aaron Jarvis 65.6 76
111 Paul Lawrie 65.6 141
112 Ronan Mullarney 65.6 141
113 John Parry 65.6 62
114 Aldrich Potgieter 65.6 134
115 Jamie Rutherford 65.6 83
116 Alex Wrigley 65.6 152
117 Matt Ford 65.7 107
118 Sadom Kaewkanjana 65.8 11
119 Jed Morgan 65.8 152
120 Lars van Meijel 65.8 53
121 Shugo Imahira 65.9 146
122 Richard Bland 66.1 98
123 Keita Nakajima 66.2 107
124 Min Woo Lee 66.5 21
125 Pablo Larrazabal 66.6 154
126 Dean Burmester 66.6 11
127 Harris English 66.7 134
128 Fabrizio Zanotti 67.0 125
129 Adrian Meronk 67.0 42
130 Danny Willett 67.1 53
131 Takumi Kanaya 67.5 84
132 Bernd Wiesberger 67.7 117
133 Henrik Stenson 67.8 84
134 Adri Arnaus 68.7 76
135 Haotong Li 68.9 125
136 Alexander Bjork 69.2 98
137 Bryson DeChambeau 69.4 8
138 Guido Migliozzi 69.4 107
139 Padraig Harrington 69.6 107
140 Laurie Canter 70.0 79
141 Victor Perez 70.1 34
142 Garrick Higgo 70.1 47
143 Trey Mullinax 70.7 21
144 Richard Mansell 71.4 68
145 Marcus Armitage 71.8 74
146 John Catlin 71.9 107
147 David Law 72.6 72
148 Shaun Norris 73.4 107
149 Matthew Jordan 73.6 98
150 Nicolai Hojgaard 74.6 53
151 Oliver Farr 76.8 134
152 Ashley Chesters 76.9 117
153 Zander Lombard 76.9 84
Kurt Kitayama late entry 73
Ben Campbell late entry 85
Brandon Wu late entry 86
Jamie Donaldson late entry 87
Aaron Rai late entry 112
Rikuya Hoshino late entry 120
Minkyu Kim Mar01 late entry 134
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 161. The average is 160. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Barracuda Championship

July 11, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,

Maverick McNealy
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Maverick McNealy 33.9 9
2 Andrew Putnam 35.9 123
3 Nick Hardy 37.1 13
4 Taylor Pendrith 38.3 11
5 Alex Noren 38.7 2
6 Cameron Davis 39.5 6
7 Charles Howell 39.6 DNP
8 Matthew NeSmith 43.2 DNP
9 Doug Ghim 44.0 89
10 Martin Laird 44.3 3
11 Chez Reavie 45.7 1
12 Taylor Moore 46.3 65
13 John Huh 46.7 55
14 Chris Stroud 47.9 108
15 Mark Hubbard 47.9 4
16 Chesson Hadley 48.4 31
17 Robert Streb 48.7 108
18 Rasmus Hojgaard 50.3 48
19 Michael Thompson 50.7 9
20 Charley Hoffman 51.4 31
21 Callum Tarren 51.4 22
22 Matthias Schwab 51.4 81
23 Vincent Whaley 51.8 31
24 Scott Piercy 52.3 65
25 Austin Cook 52.6 60
26 Justin Lower 53.1 16
27 Richy Werenski 53.2 44
28 Ryan Armour 53.2 123
29 Greg Chalmers 53.3 72
30 Hank Lebioda 53.3 130
31 Roger Sloan 53.5 89
32 Hurly Long 53.5 7
33 Michael Gligic 53.6 31
34 James Hahn 53.7 26
35 Doc Redman 54.0 123
36 Greyson Sigg 54.1 26
37 Chad Ramey 54.1 60
38 Kelly Kraft 54.5 31
39 Harry Higgs 54.6 11
40 Austin Smotherman 54.7 8
41 Brandon Hagy 54.8 89
42 JJ Henry 54.8 72
43 Joseph Bramlett 55.0 39
44 Espen Kofstad 55.1 16
45 Stephan Jaeger 55.2 22
46 Johannes Veerman 55.2 99
47 Brandt Snedeker 55.3 DNP
48 Satoshi Kodaira 55.5 DNP
49 Matthias Schmid 55.6 38
50 Julien Brun 55.6 72
51 Dylan Wu 55.7 116
52 Ryan Moore 55.7 143
53 Jonathan Byrd 55.7 116
54 Yannik Paul 55.8 20
55 Kevin Chappell 56.2 55
56 Matthieu Pavon 56.5 31
57 James Morrison 56.7 26
58 Brian Stuard 56.7 123
59 Brice Garnett 56.8 16
60 Niklas Norgaard Moller 56.8 72
61 Vaughn Taylor 56.8 108
62 Bo Hoag 57.0 60
63 Chase Seiffert 57.0 65
64 Marcus Helligkilde 57.5 13
65 Justin Walters 57.5 81
66 Kevin Tway 57.5 22
67 Camilo Villegas 57.6 72
68 Bill Haas 57.6 26
69 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 57.7 81
70 Henrik Norlander 58.0 31
71 Scott Jamieson 58.0 22
72 Santiago Tarrio Ben 58.1 130
73 Sean Crocker 58.1 13
74 Max McGreevy 58.1 105
75 Marcel Siem 58.2 WD
76 Rafa Cabrera Bello 58.3 44
77 Ashun Wu 58.3 44
78 Ricardo Gouveia 58.4 81
79 Sebastian Soderberg 58.6 72
80 George Coetzee 58.6 WD
81 Dale Whitnell 58.6 99
82 Paul Barjon 58.6 89
83 Nick Watney 58.6 81
84 Wesley Bryan 58.8 116
85 Ben Kohles 59.0 50
86 Joakim Lagergren 59.0 99
87 Seung-yul Noh 59.2 55
88 Joachim B Hansen 59.3 DNP
89 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 59.3 108
90 Francesco Laporta 59.3 39
91 Jim Knous 59.5 55
92 Chase Hanna 59.5 72
93 Daniel Gavins 59.6 72
94 Martin Trainer 59.6 39
95 Curtis Thompson 59.7 130
96 Kristoffer Broberg 59.7 DNP
97 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 59.9 44
98 Jason Dufner 59.9 69
99 Seth Reeves 60.0 108
100 Sung Kang 60.2 70
101 Scott Gutschewski 60.5 5
102 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 60.5 50
103 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 60.6 116
104 Jonas Blixt 60.6 116
105 Nino Bertasio 60.7 20
106 Dawie van der Walt 61.0 128
107 Renato Paratore 61.1 WD
108 Hugo Leon 61.1 128
109 Lucas Bjerregaard 61.3 59
110 Andrew Wilson 61.3 DNP
111 Fabian Gomez 61.3 50
112 Scott Hend 61.7 89
113 Benjamin Hebert 61.8 81
114 Alejandro Canizares 61.9 WD
115 Ricky Barnes 61.9 60
116 Andrea Pavan 62.0 130
117 Brett Drewitt 62.4 89
118 Joshua Creel 62.5 16
119 Aaron Baddeley 62.6 150
120 Johnson Wagner 62.7 DNP
121 Robert Garrigus 63.0 89
122 Ben Martin 63.1 99
123 DJ Trahan 63.1 138
124 Sean O’Hair 63.4 89
125 Ben Crane 63.5 139
126 Brian Davis 63.8 139
127 Bo Van Pelt 64.4 68
128 Cameron Percy 64.5 50
129 Mark Baldwin 64.8 50
130 Omar Uresti 64.8 116
131 Grayson Murray 65.0 116
132 David Hearn 65.5 39
133 Albert Boneta 65.6 150
134 Joe Highsmith 65.6 72
135 Tom Johnson 65.6 130
136 David Longmire 65.6 81
137 Matt Ryan 65.6 130
138 John Merrick 65.6 146
139 Matt Every 65.6 108
140 Arjun Atwal 65.6 146
141 Kevin Stadler 65.6 156
142 George McNeill 65.6 DNP
143 DA Points 65.6 143
144 Sangmoon Bae 65.7 DNP
145 Charlie Beljan 65.7 DNP
146 Derek Ernst 65.7 146
147 Andres Romero 65.8 DNP
148 KJ Choi 65.8 89
149 Tommy Gainey 66.0 150
150 Scott Brown 66.1 99
151 Ted Potter 66.1 143
152 Mark Hensby 66.3 DNP
153 David Lingmerth 66.3 64
Julian Suri late entry 30
Aaron Cockerill late entry 39
Pep Angles late entry 48
Preston Stanley late entry 71
Justin Warren late entry 85
Tom Lewis late entry 98
Joel Stalter late entry 102
Gavin Green late entry 105
Joel Sjoholm late entry 106
Chris Naegel late entry 108
Haydn Porteous late entry 110
Josh McCarthy late entry 126
Ollie Osborne late entry 134
Robin Roussel late entry 135
Geoff Ogilvy late entry 153
Parker McLachlin late entry 155
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 142. The average is 160. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (thru July 10, 2022)

July 11, 2022 Thomas Hawley

Patrick Cantlay hits no. 1 for the first time in his career with a top-five finish in the Scottish Open.
# Thru June 10, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Patrick Cantlay 44 1621 2
2 Xander Schauffele 49 1588 4
3 Jon Rahm 46 1552 1
4 Rory McIlroy 47 1538 3
5 Scottie Scheffler 58 1452 5
6 Justin Thomas 50 1425 6
7 Cameron Smith 47 1377 8
8 Will Zalatoris 50 1321 7
9 Matthew Fitzpatrick 52 1314 9
10 Jordan Spieth 49 1167 16
11 Sam Burns 53 1134 10
12 Shane Lowry 54 1129 14
13 Dustin Johnson 43 1124 13
14 Collin Morikawa 52 1122 11
15 Daniel Berger 43 1119 15
16 Cameron Young 28 1079 12
17 Paul Casey 42 1074 19
18 Max Homa 53 1071 20
19 Viktor Hovland 55 1064 17
20 Corey Conners 57 1056 18
21 Joaquin Niemann 56 1028 22
22 Hideki Matsuyama 50 983 21
23 Sungjae Im 63 959 23
24 Seamus Power 44 956 26
25 Louis Oosthuizen 41 936 28
26 Billy Horschel 55 926 25
27 Keegan Bradley 58 923 27
28 Mito Pereira 35 920 24
29 Tony Finau 57 917 29
30 Tyrrell Hatton 54 899 31
31 Talor Gooch 56 893 30
32 Tommy Fleetwood 59 889 42
33 Adam Scott 39 869 33
34 Abraham Ancer 57 867 36
35 Davis Riley 36 866 35
36 Cameron Tringale 54 866 45
37 Keith Mitchell 54 866 32
38 Aaron Wise 46 852 37
39 Harold Varner 53 846 38
40 Brooks Koepka 42 843 39
41 Brian Harman 56 843 34
42 Russell Henley 48 836 40
43 Kevin Na 50 835 41
44 Webb Simpson 43 797 44
45 Brendan Steele 47 779 47
46 Chris Kirk 51 776 43
47 Joohyung Kim 16 771 109
48 Adam Hadwin 55 768 48
49 Alex Noren 53 766 49
50 Justin Rose 42 754 46
51 Bryson DeChambeau 39 719 51
52 Patrick Reed 57 714 52
53 Maverick McNealy 52 711 63
54 Sebastian Munoz 60 703 50
55 Kevin Kisner 52 697 54
56 Jason Kokrak 52 692 53
57 Sergio Garcia 49 680 56
58 Denny McCarthy 60 678 58
59 Gary Woodland 49 677 60
60 Sahith Theegala 38 677 57
61 Bubba Watson 39 674 59
62 Marc Leishman 53 672 55
63 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 53 660 65
64 Harris English 45 648 62
65 Matt Kuchar 48 645 64
66 Si Woo Kim 60 644 61
67 Ryan Palmer 50 596 75
68 Kevin Streelman 58 583 69
69 Taylor Pendrith 27 566 73
70 Mac Hughes 57 565 66
71 Charles Howell 42 565 71
72 Tom Hoge 66 564 68
73 Erik van Rooyen 52 561 67
74 Jason Day 41 559 70
75 Cameron Davis 50 556 72
76 Scott Stallings 57 549 74
77 JT Poston 58 543 77
78 Brendon Todd 57 541 76
79 Branden Grace 56 529 88
80 KH Lee 60 522 78
81 Jhonattan Vegas 52 514 84
82 Ian Poulter 55 514 80
83 Alex Smalley 33 514 113
84 Lucas Herbert 45 513 79
85 Matthew NeSmith 58 512 82
86 Sepp Straka 63 512 81
87 Nick Hardy 25 505 85
88 Taylor Moore 27 501 86
89 Charl Schwartzel 49 499 87
90 Joel Dahmen 54 497 83
91 Stewart Cink 48 493 101
92 Troy Merritt 62 490 98
93 Lanto Griffin 58 490 91
94 Matthew Wolff 44 489 90
95 Aaron Rai 59 483 89
96 Doug Ghim 54 480 108
97 CT Pan 51 477 96
98 Thomas Pieters 44 477 94
99 Matt Jones 57 475 95
100 Adam Long 60 473 97
101 Pat Perez 54 471 99
102 Luke List 59 468 93
103 David Lipsky 39 467 92
104 Patton Kizzire 56 447 100
105 Lee Westwood 49 439 106
106 Chez Reavie 57 436 105
107 Robert MacIntyre 54 435 103
108 Adam Svensson 33 434 115
109 Anirban Lahiri 46 432 102
110 Russell Knox 60 432 107
111 Emiliano Grillo 58 429 110
112 Taylor Montgomery 9 424 111
113 Francesco Molinari 35 423 104
114 Beau Hossler 57 415 112
115 Wyndham Clark 57 407 130
116 Rickie Fowler 45 399 116
117 Kurt Kitayama 48 399 171
118 Oliver Bekker 22 396 117
119 John Huh 44 396 114
120 Andrew Putnam 59 390 120
121 Charley Hoffman 54 382 118
122 Lucas Glover 57 380 119
123 Nate Lashley 51 379 122
124 Brandon Wu 32 379 192
125 Martin Laird 45 379 123
126 Dylan Frittelli 60 378 121
127 Sam Horsfield 43 377 124
128 Carlos Ortiz 54 376 125
129 Hennie du Plessis 19 374 126
130 Adam Schenk 65 370 127
131 Steve Stricker 13 355 128
132 Mark Hubbard 57 348 140
133 Hayden Buckley 33 346 129
134 Ryan Fox 46 342 134
135 Zach Johnson 47 341 133
136 Richard Bland 52 338 135
137 JJ Spaun 56 338 132
138 Cameron Champ 48 334 136
139 Lee Hodges 35 333 131
140 Rasmus Hojgaard 51 330 187
141 Nick Taylor 57 328 137
142 Patrick Flavin 9 328 154
143 Thriston Lawrence 25 327 178
144 Jason Scrivener 45 327 182
145 Thomas Detry 53 320 196
146 Matthias Schwab 55 319 142
147 Patrick Rodgers 65 319 138
148 Sam Ryder 62 318 139
149 Jordan Smith 56 317 169
150 James Hahn 45 315 146
151 Bernd Wiesberger 52 313 147
152 Rory Sabbatini 49 313 149
153 Adri Arnaus 51 312 148
154 Danny Willett 55 311 143
155 Michael Thompson 50 309 141
156 Scott Piercy 53 309 152
157 Peter Malnati 60 308 150
158 Justin Harding 56 307 144
159 Matt Wallace 59 306 145
160 Doc Redman 55 304 155
161 John Augenstein 12 300 158
162 Min Woo Lee 46 300 151
163 Hudson Swafford 54 298 157
164 Adrian Meronk 52 296 153
165 Tyler Duncan 61 295 168
166 Dean Burmester 55 294 212
167 Harry Higgs 58 291 156
168 Pablo Larrazabal 48 291 161
169 Chad Ramey 30 290 163
170 Robert Streb 56 286 159
171 Harry Hall 8 286 167
172 Hank Lebioda 51 285 164
173 Vincent Whaley 58 280 179
174 Padraig Harrington 39 278 160
175 Fabrizio Zanotti 37 278 180
176 Victor Perez 48 277 165
177 Jamie Donaldson 50 277 264
178 Austin Smotherman 26 276 162
179 Ryan Armour 51 275 166
180 Justin Lower 26 272 191
181 Phil Mickelson 35 269 175
182 Brandt Snedeker 55 269 176
183 Chesson Hadley 54 267 170
184 Danny Lee 52 265 177
185 Guido Migliozzi 54 264 172
186 Garrick Higgo 55 264 173
187 Stephan Jaeger 37 260 174
188 Mikko Korhonen 42 254 200
189 Trey Mullinax 27 254 213
190 Hurly Long 27 253 215
191 Greyson Sigg 38 253 183
192 Martin Kaymer 38 247 184
193 Kramer Hickok 54 247 194
194 Graeme McDowell 48 247 185
195 Callum Tarren 27 245 181
196 Alexander Bjork 47 242 195
197 Takumi Kanaya 35 242 188
198 Brian Stuard 69 241 186
199 Austin Eckroat 11 238 189
200 Laurie Canter 48 237 190
201 Sean O’Hair 35 230 226
202 Satoshi Kodaira 48 230 199
203 Adrian Otaegui 59 228 201
204 Dylan Wu 28 226 207
205 Antoine Rozner 54 226 193
206 Haotong Li 41 225 198
207 Brice Garnett 59 224 197
208 MJ Daffue 16 222 202
209 Thorbjorn Olesen 43 220 235
210 Kevin Chappell 28 217 222
211 Julien Brun 19 213 219
212 Marcus Armitage 56 211 204
213 Kyle Stanley 50 210 208
214 Yannik Paul 17 210 231
215 Romain Langasque 53 209 209
216 Andrew Novak 29 209 203
217 Jinichiro Kozuma 22 208 214
218 Edoardo Molinari 51 208 205
219 Andrew Johnston 24 206 217
220 Henrik Stenson 49 205 206
221 Tyler McCumber 39 204 220
222 Chase Seiffert 49 201 211
223 Ryosuke Kinoshita 23 201 223
224 Ryan Moore 32 200 210
225 Roger Sloan 55 200 216
226 Byeong Hun An 38 200 221
227 William McGirt 29 197 218
228 Andrew Landry 41 194 228
229 Michael Gligic 55 193 236
230 Richy Werenski 58 190 225
231 Johannes Veerman 49 190 227
232 Jonathan Byrd 33 188 230
233 Henrik Norlander 56 188 224
234 Kelly Kraft 43 184 229
235 Victor Dubuisson 25 184 233
236 Richard Mansell 27 182 239
237 Richie Ramsay 53 182 240
238 Bo Hoag 56 181 232
239 Joseph Bramlett 58 181 241
240 Luke Donald 49 180 234
241 Vaughn Taylor 47 178 238
242 Marcel Schneider 39 177 237
243 Chase Koepka 8 177 243
244 Justin Suh 16 176 242
245 Espen Kofstad 20 175 289
246 Todd Sinnott 10 175 246
247 Peter Uihlein 37 174 245
248 Austin Cook 56 173 253
249 Cameron Percy 44 171 247
250 JC Ritchie 26 171 251
251 Calum Hill 41 170 250
252 Wade Ormsby 41 170 248
253 Matthias Schmid 30 170 292
254 Kalle Samooja 51 169 244
255 Brandon Hagy 58 168 263
256 Sami Valimaki 50 168 316
257 Matthieu Pavon 55 167 277
258 Lukas Nemecz 18 166 254
259 Jim Furyk 12 166 256
260 Jimmy Walker 41 166 262
261 Camilo Villegas 53 165 279
262 Maximilian Kieffer 51 165 297
263 Matthew Jordan 55 165 255
264 Davis Thompson 11 165 261
265 Scott Jamieson 49 164 252
266 Marcel Siem 32 163 249
267 Max McGreevy 29 162 298
268 Ashun Wu 42 160 265
269 Nicolai Hojgaard 49 160 260
270 Tom Lewis 45 160 258
271 Shaun Norris 32 159 267
272 Brandon Stone 50 159 259
273 Rafa Cabrera Bello 58 158 286
274 Wesley Bryan 27 157 257
275 Masahiro Kawamura 61 156 266
276 Wil Besseling 54 155 268
277 Justin Walters 58 154 269
278 Niklas Norgaard Moller 19 154 287
279 John Catlin 52 153 270
280 Jorge Campillo 60 153 271
281 Sean Crocker 57 151 272
282 Frederic LaCroix 16 150 276
283 Bill Haas 51 150 273
284 Shubhankar Sharma 59 148 274
285 James Morrison 56 147 311
286 Marcus Helligkilde 16 147 380
287 Trevor Fisher 8 146 281
288 Stephen Stallings 8 146
289 Bronson Burgoon 44 145 284
290 Yuki Inamori 23 145 285
291 George Coetzee 42 144 275
292 Nick Watney 53 143 280
293 Callum Shinkwin 48 142 278
294 Tiger Woods 8 141 283
295 Bo Van Pelt 46 141 303
296 Andy Sullivan 53 140 282
297 David Law 56 139 301
298 Kevin Tway 52 138 290
299 Ben Kohles 26 137 354
300 Scott Vincent 32 136 293
301 Chan Kim 28 136 295
302 Ben Martin 39 135 288
303 Wilco Nienaber 45 134 296
304 Ricardo Gouveia 20 134 386
305 Bryson Nimmer 8 133 302
306 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 19 132 294
307 Aaron Baddeley 37 132 304
308 Connor Syme 54 132 325
309 David Lingmerth 26 130 291
310 Francesco Laporta 53 130 310
311 Tapio Pulkkanen 53 129 299
312 Joachim B Hansen 56 129 300
313 Ross Fisher 52 129 309
314 Hideto Tanihara 16 127 315
315 Joakim Lagergren 50 126 306
316 Santiago Tarrio Ben 27 126 305
317 Paul Barjon 33 126 307
318 Brad Kennedy 13 123 317
319 Jim Herman 44 122 312
320 Shugo Imahira 21 122 322
321 Chase Hanna 27 122 313
322 Daniel van Tonder 43 121 314
323 Niall Kearney 26 121 321
324 Angel Hidalgo 9 121 323
325 Martin Trainer 57 121 318
326 Grant Forrest 54 119 320
327 Sebastian Soderberg 54 119 340
328 Robby Shelton 40 119 319
329 Robert Garrigus 21 118 308
330 Rikuya Hoshino 27 118 329
331 Seonghyeon Kim 8 117 330
332 Ewen Ferguson 36 117 324
333 Sihwan Kim 40 117 332
334 Jazz Janewattananond 53 116 326
335 Jack Senior 53 114 328
336 Jacques Kruyswijk 34 114 338
337 Ben Taylor 25 114 341
338 Jeff Winther 48 114 327
339 James Piot 8 113 339
340 Dale Whitnell 57 113 331
341 Rob Oppenheim 33 112 337
342 Mark Anderson 27 112 345
343 Jason Dufner 52 112 353
344 Matthew Southgate 55 111 334
345 David Horsey 54 111 333
346 Julien Guerrier 53 110 336
347 Curtis Thompson 30 110 335
348 Will Gordon 37 109 346
349 Kazuki Higa 20 109 347
350 Sung Kang 62 109 344
351 Daniel Gavins 35 108 342
352 Joost Luiten 50 107 349
353 Alexander Levy 44 107 351
354 Jim Knous 24 106 343
355 Darren Fichardt 33 106 352
356 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 37 104 348
357 Ockie Strydom 8 103 357
358 Kristoffer Broberg 37 102 350
359 Craig Howie 26 100 359
360 Louis de Jager 32 100 358
361 Aaron Cockerill 50 100 356
362 Jacques Blaauw 9 98 361
363 Keenan Davidse 8 98 363
364 Scott Gutschewski 26 98 355
365 Keita Nakajima 14 97 364
366 Ryan Brehm 40 96 360
367 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 49 95 362
368 Chris Stroud 16 95 434
369 Michael Gellerman 22 94 366
370 Seth Reeves 28 93 387
371 Seung-yul Noh 30 93 370
372 Grayson Murray 31 91 365
373 Eddie Pepperell 46 91 368
374 Darius van Driel 52 90 369
375 Scott Brown 47 90 367
376 CJ du Plessis 8 88 372
377 Adrien Saddier 37 85 375
378 Marcus Kinhult 44 85 371
379 Nacho Elvira 59 85 373
380 Michael Kim 37 84 501
381 Hiroshi Iwata 20 84 378
382 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 53 83 374
383 Rafael Campos 31 82 382
384 Chris Baker 28 81 381
385 Dawie van der Walt 28 79 379
386 Jared Wolfe 26 78 376
387 Richard Sterne 23 78 388
388 Ollie Schniederjans 10 78 384
389 Josh Teater 25 77 377
390 Oscar Lengden 10 77 389
391 Paul Waring 38 76 391
392 Fabian Gomez 36 76 383
393 David Skinns 24 76 385
394 Nicolas Colsaerts 31 75 393
395 Bryce Easton 33 75 395
396 Nino Bertasio 49 74 390
397 Scott Harrington 36 74 394
398 Jayden Schaper 14 73 397
399 Akshay Bhatia 15 73 392
400 Neil Schietekat 11 73 398
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Perspectives on the Genesis Scottish Open

July 6, 2022 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the Scottish Open. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.583
Tyrrell Hatton 0.545
Padraig Harrington 0.524
Alexander Bjork 0.468
Aaron Rai 0.456
Lucas Herbert 0.451
Thomas Detry 0.431
Matt Wallace 0.412

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Jon Rahm 1 1608.5
Patrick Cantlay 2 1534.6
Xander Schauffele 4 1498.5
Scottie Scheffler 5 1494.2
Justin Thomas 6 1475.4
Will Zalatoris 7 1360.6
Cameron Smith 8 1312.6
Matthew Fitzpatrick 9 1240.4

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player Rank Rating
Rory McIlroy 3 1532.4
Dustin Johnson 13 1126.3
Shane Lowry 14 1125.8
Daniel Berger 15 1118.9

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Upward change
Will Zalatoris 2199.9
Matthew Fitzpatrick 1550.9
Sahith Theegala 1521.1
Scottie Scheffler 1348.9
Xander Schauffele 1294.4
Chris Kirk 1213.9
Keith Mitchell 1111.4
John Huh 1015.9

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Downward change
Keegan Bradley -928.8
Alex Noren -726.3
Viktor Hovland -619.5
Erik van Rooyen -581.9
Tom Hoge -577.8
Ryan Palmer -489.3
Sepp Straka -482.4
Jason Kokrak -474.1

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Renaissance Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value Statistic
0.34 Shots gained putting
0.32 Shots gained in approach
0.24 Shots gained around the green
0.16 Shots gained off the tee

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Cameron Smith 67.08
Ryan Fox 67.28
Matthew Fitzpatrick 67.66
Justin Thomas 67.76
Tyrrell Hatton 67.88
Scottie Scheffler 67.88
Sam Burns 67.93
Padraig Harrington 68.07

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Chris Wood 73.2
Sean Crocker 72.3
Jonathan Caldwell 72.3
Stephen Gallacher 72.2
Scott Hend 72.0
Guido Migliozzi 71.9
Charley Hoffman 71.8
Danny Lee 71.7

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and North Berwick, Scotland, the event venue.

Player Residence Distance
Victor Perez Dundee, Scotland 29
Robert MacIntyre Oban, Scotland 100
Callum Tarren Darlington, England 125
Tommy Fleetwood Southport, England 175
Danny Willett Sheffield, England 200
Matthew Fitzpatrick Sheffield, England 200
Aaron Rai Wolverhampton, England 250
Andy Sullivan Nuneaton, England 250

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic Correlation to results
Top of the heap 0.333
I love this place 0.170
Ooh, that’s hot 0.154
Location, location, location 0.000

Genesis Scottish Open

July 4, 2022 Thomas Hawley , ,
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Matthew Fitzpatrick 12.8 6
2 Will Zalatoris 13.4 87
3 Scottie Scheffler 14.2 87
4 Xander Schauffele 14.5 1
5 Jon Rahm 14.5 55
6 Patrick Cantlay 16.7 4
7 Justin Thomas 16.9 137
8 Cameron Smith 29.7 10
9 Sam Burns 30.9 66
10 Cameron Young 33.0 151
11 Max Homa 33.5 16
12 Hideki Matsuyama 36.0 109
13 Jordan Spieth 36.4 10
14 Corey Conners 38.6 61
15 Sungjae Im 39.0 109
16 Keith Mitchell 39.0 36
17 Collin Morikawa 39.0 87
18 Joaquin Niemann 40.0 16
19 Tyrrell Hatton 40.3 24
20 Chris Kirk 40.6 71
21 Mito Pereira 41.1 109
22 Justin Rose 42.0 69
23 Viktor Hovland 42.4 109
24 Sahith Theegala 43.4 DNP
25 Brian Harman 44.1 151
26 Billy Horschel 45.5 87
27 Aaron Rai 45.7 124
28 Tommy Fleetwood 46.7 4
29 Min Woo Lee 47.9 146
30 Harold Varner 48.2 DNP
31 Lucas Herbert 49.2 73
32 Keegan Bradley 50.1 130
33 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 50.9 16
34 Matt Kuchar 50.9 47
35 Sebastian Munoz 51.8 73
36 Cameron Tringale 52.0 6
37 Marc Leishman 53.0 87
38 Gary Woodland 53.5 30
39 Mac Hughes 54.0 130
40 Alex Noren 55.5 30
41 Jason Kokrak 55.6 100
42 John Huh 56.5 DNP
43 Si Woo Kim 56.6 109
44 Luke List 56.7 109
45 Maverick McNealy 57.3 16
46 Matthew NeSmith 57.7 146
47 Joel Dahmen 58.3 109
48 KH Lee 58.8 87
49 Ryan Fox 59.2 47
50 Kevin Streelman 60.1 DNP
51 Francesco Molinari 60.2 149
52 Chez Reavie 60.6 DNP
53 Tom Hoge 61.0 109
54 Rickie Fowler 61.0 47
55 Ryan Palmer 61.1 16
56 Robert MacIntyre 61.2 87
57 Erik van Rooyen 61.4 109
58 David Lipsky 61.8 130
59 Joohyung Kim 62.1 3
60 Sepp Straka 62.6 109
61 Jhonattan Vegas 62.6 36
62 Alex Smalley 62.6 10
63 Matt Wallace 62.9 124
64 Brandon Stone 62.9 73
65 Alexander Bjork 62.9 42
66 Wyndham Clark 62.9 16
67 Taylor Moore 63.1 DNP
68 Russell Knox 63.3 42
69 Padraig Harrington 63.4 137
70 Victor Perez 63.4 130
71 Patrick Rodgers 63.4 87
72 Hayden Buckley 63.5 DNP
73 Andrew Putnam 63.7 DNP
74 Troy Merritt 64.1 30
75 Adrian Meronk 64.1 130
76 Bi-o Kim 64.3 109
77 Jordan Smith 64.4 24
78 Doug Ghim 64.7 16
79 Lee Hodges 64.9 DNP
80 Stewart Cink 65.0 24
81 Anirban Lahiri 65.1 73
82 Dylan Frittelli 65.2 47
83 Fabrizio Zanotti 65.4 36
84 Lee Jaekyeong 65.4 151
85 Thomas Detry 65.4 10
86 Haotong Li 65.7 55
87 Guido Migliozzi 65.8 72
88 Edoardo Molinari 66.0 73
89 Adri Arnaus 66.1 47
90 Lucas Glover 66.5 109
91 Michael Thompson 66.8 DNP
92 Charley Hoffman 66.9 69
93 Callum Tarren 66.9 87
94 Matthias Schwab 67.1 DNP
95 Nick Taylor 67.4 55
96 Thriston Lawrence 67.5 24
97 Danny Willett 68.0 137
98 JJ Spaun 68.2 59
99 Kalle Samooja 68.3 100
100 Jorge Campillo 68.4 87
101 Antoine Rozner 68.5 146
102 Mikko Korhonen 68.7 30
103 Harris English 68.8 42
104 Danny Lee 68.9 DNP
105 Robert Streb 69.0 137
106 Richie Ramsay 69.0 DNP
107 Garrick Higgo 69.2 151
108 Matthieu Pavon 69.4 36
109 Dean Burmester 69.4 10
110 Johannes Veerman 69.5 87
111 Kurt Kitayama 69.6 2
112 Henrik Stenson 69.8 100
113 Jason Scrivener 69.8 16
114 Stephan Jaeger 70.0 100
115 Marcus Armitage 70.3 61
116 Rasmus Hojgaard 70.7 10
117 Joakim Lagergren 71.1 73
118 Andy Sullivan 71.2 73
119 Brandon Wu 71.3 6
120 John Catlin 71.4 124
121 Luke Donald 71.4 124
122 Thorbjorn Olesen 71.5 30
123 Masahiro Kawamura 71.5 100
124 Kramer Hickok 71.7 DNP
125 Andrea Pavan 71.9 149
126 Shubhankar Sharma 71.9 87
127 Jeff Winther 72.1 100
128 Jamie Donaldson 72.2 6
129 Maximilian Kieffer 72.3 30
130 Grant Forrest 72.7 100
131 James Morrison 72.7 36
132 David Horsey 72.8 WD
133 Sami Valimaki 73.0 24
134 Ashun Wu 73.0 55
135 Matthew Jordan 73.1 59
136 Sean Crocker 73.1 66
137 Kristoffer Broberg 73.3 109
138 Marcus Kinhult 73.5 73
139 Sebastian Soderberg 73.6 47
140 Nicolai Hojgaard 73.7 100
141 Jazz Janewattananond 74.1 124
142 Daniel van Tonder 74.3 73
143 Ewen Ferguson 74.3 61
144 Nick Watney 74.3 73
145 Tapio Pulkkanen 74.3 100
146 Rafa Cabrera Bello 74.4 36
147 Jack Senior 74.4 109
148 Francesco Laporta 74.4 DNP
149 Joachim B Hansen 74.6 109
150 Max McGreevy 74.7 DNP
151 Kevin Tway 74.7 DNP
152 Scott Hend 74.8 130
153 Daniel Gavins 74.8 73
154 Martin Trainer 75.0 DNP
155 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 75.1 151
156 Stephen Gallacher 75.5 73
157 Nacho Elvira 75.6 61
158 Steven Brown 76.9 137
159 Thomas Bjorn 77.1 151
160 Maverick Antcliff 77.3 158
161 Jonathan Caldwell 78.0 137
162 Chris Wood 78.1 157
Branden Grace late entry 28
Connor Syme late entry 42
Adrian Otaegui late entry 45
David Law late entry 49
Rikard Karlberg late entry 51
Marc Warren late entry 65
Justin Harding late entry 66
Nino Bertasio late entry 73
Callum Shinkwin late entry 84
Matthew Southgate late entry 92
Wil Besseling late entry 129
Julien Guerrier late entry 136
Ryan Armour late entry 139
Ian Poulter late entry 140
Andrew Novak late entry 145
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 135. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Barbasol Championship

July 4, 2022 Thomas Hawley , ,
Dustin Johnson
Christopher Gotterup
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Christopher Gotterup 47.2 110
2 Taylor Pendrith 53.2 13
3 John Huh 55.8 84
4 Kevin Streelman 57.2 2
5 Adam Svensson 59.1 6
6 Taylor Moore 60.4 21
7 Patton Kizzire 61.7 84
8 Hayden Buckley 62.3 63
9 Chesson Hadley 63.7 68
10 Lee Hodges 63.8 110
11 Conrad Shindler 64.2 60
12 Mark Hubbard 65.3 3
13 Michael Thompson 65.8 142
14 James Hahn 66.2 27
15 Tyler Duncan 67.1 13
16 Sam Ryder 67.1 84
17 Ryan Armour 67.2 DNP
18 Patrick Flavin 67.3 21
19 Hank Lebioda 67.7 41
20 Doc Redman 68.7 21
21 Harry Higgs 68.7 124
22 Austin Smotherman 68.8 54
23 Vincent Whaley 69.3 5
24 Kelly Kraft 69.5 142
25 Marcel Schneider 69.7 84
26 Greyson Sigg 69.7 27
27 Austin Cook 69.7 27
28 Brice Garnett 69.8 110
29 Ryan Moore 69.9 54
30 William McGirt 70.1 50
31 Justin Lower 70.4 8
32 Andrew Novak 70.5 DNP
33 Brian Stuard 70.6 110
34 Hurly Long 70.7 4
35 Michael Gligic 70.7 21
36 Bill Haas 70.8 99
37 Satoshi Kodaira 71.0 27
38 Kramer Hickok 71.1 13
39 Jonathan Byrd 71.3 41
40 Julien Brun 71.5 27
41 Chase Seiffert 71.5 110
42 Dylan Wu 71.8 21
43 Yannik Paul 71.9 20
44 Justin Walters 71.9 63
45 Bo Hoag 72.0 110
46 Sean O’Hair 72.0 8
47 Trey Mullinax 72.1 1
48 Vaughn Taylor 72.1 110
49 Roger Sloan 72.2 84
50 Kevin Chappell 72.2 21
51 Henrik Norlander 72.5 124
52 Marcel Siem 72.5 81
53 Richy Werenski 72.5 WD
54 Lukas Nemecz 72.6 41
55 Niklas Norgaard Moller 73.3 27
56 Tom Lewis 73.3 50
57 Espen Kofstad 73.3 13
58 Cameron Percy 73.3 41
59 Santiago Tarrio Ben 73.4 60
60 Scott Jamieson 73.4 54
61 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 73.5 47
62 Wesley Bryan 73.6 142
63 Aaron Baddeley 73.7 41
64 Brandon Hagy 73.8 27
65 David Lingmerth 73.8 99
66 Matthias Schmid 74.1 8
67 George Coetzee 74.1 WD
68 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 74.1 124
69 Camilo Villegas 74.2 13
70 Dale Whitnell 74.2 99
71 Ben Martin 74.2 84
72 Paul Barjon 74.4 54
73 Kevin Tway 74.7 50
74 Max McGreevy 74.7 13
75 Bo Van Pelt 74.8 27
76 Robert Garrigus 74.8 99
77 Jim Knous 75.0 77
78 Jim Herman 75.1 78
79 Chase Hanna 75.1 68
80 Martin Trainer 75.1 84
81 Grayson Murray 75.2 WD
82 Curtis Thompson 75.5 WD
83 Seung-yul Noh 75.6 41
84 Sung Kang 75.7 99
85 Aaron Cockerill 75.8 60
86 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 75.8 68
87 Jason Dufner 75.9 27
88 Ben Kohles 75.9 13
89 Scott Gutschewski 76.0 99
90 Ryan Brehm 76.1 81
91 Marcus Helligkilde 76.1 8
92 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 76.2 84
93 Scott Brown 76.3 54
94 Jonas Blixt 76.3 139
95 David Skinns 76.4 68
96 Josh Teater 76.5 63
97 Fabian Gomez 76.5 124
98 Jared Wolfe 76.6 84
99 Richard Sterne 76.7 DNP
100 Dawie van der Walt 76.7 74
101 Ricardo Gouveia 76.8 8
102 Tommy Gainey 76.9 132
103 Seth Reeves 76.9 27
104 Renato Paratore 77.1 148
105 Gavin Green 77.1 99
106 Niklas Lemke 77.3 99
107 Benjamin Hebert 77.4 147
108 Greg Chalmers 77.4 47
109 Andrew Wilson 77.5 WD
110 Ted Potter 77.5 124
111 Chris Stroud 77.6 27
112 Soren Kjeldsen 77.6 74
113 Oliver Wilson 77.6 84
114 Garrick Porteous 77.8 110
115 Alejandro Canizares 78.0 110
116 Richard McEvoy 78.0 132
117 David Hearn 78.0 68
118 Josh Geary 78.1 50
119 Chris Paisley 78.1 84
120 Michael Kim 78.2 7
121 Lucas Bjerregaard 78.3 27
122 Hugo Leon 78.3 27
123 Joshua Creel 78.4 84
124 Derek Ernst 78.5 132
125 David Drysdale 78.5 DNP
126 Brett Drewitt 78.6 110
127 Joel Sjoholm 78.6 99
128 Julian Suri 78.8 110
129 DJ Trahan 78.8 84
130 Ricky Barnes 78.8 132
131 Jake McLeod 78.9 DNP
132 KJ Choi 78.9 DNP
133 Andres Romero 78.9 99
134 Johnson Wagner 79.0 DNP
135 Robin Roussel 79.0 27
136 Stephen Stallings 79.1 78
137 Charlie Beljan 79.3 DNP
138 Miguel Tabuena 79.4 84
139 Joel Stalter 79.4 124
140 Sangmoon Bae 79.4 132
141 JJ Henry 79.6 74
142 Carlos Pigem 79.6 54
143 Haydn Porteous 79.6 142
144 Jason Bohn 79.6 84
145 Richard S Johnson 79.7 DNP
146 DA Points 79.7 124
147 George McNeill 79.7 132
148 Kevin Stadler 79.7 110
149 Brian Davis 79.8 110
150 Ben Crane 79.8 63
151 Arjun Atwal 79.8 63
152 John Merrick 79.8 81
153 Matt Every 79.8 WD
154 Charlie Wi 79.8 DNP
155 Omar Uresti 79.8 110
156 Jacob Bridgeman 79.8 78
157 Matt Harris 79.8 146
158 Maclain Huge 79.8 139
159 Nathan Petronzio 79.8 99
160 Andrew Stephens 79.8 149
161 Gunner Wiebe 79.8 47
162 Derek Lamely 79.8 132
163 Parker McLachlin 79.8 139
164 Eric Axley 79.8 DNP
165 John Huston 79.8 DNP
Richard Johnson late entry 70
Daniel Wetterich late entry 131
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 110. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.