Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (thru July 10, 2022)

July 11, 2022 Thomas Hawley

Patrick Cantlay hits no. 1 for the first time in his career with a top-five finish in the Scottish Open.
# Thru June 10, 2018 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Patrick Cantlay 44 1621 2
2 Xander Schauffele 49 1588 4
3 Jon Rahm 46 1552 1
4 Rory McIlroy 47 1538 3
5 Scottie Scheffler 58 1452 5
6 Justin Thomas 50 1425 6
7 Cameron Smith 47 1377 8
8 Will Zalatoris 50 1321 7
9 Matthew Fitzpatrick 52 1314 9
10 Jordan Spieth 49 1167 16
11 Sam Burns 53 1134 10
12 Shane Lowry 54 1129 14
13 Dustin Johnson 43 1124 13
14 Collin Morikawa 52 1122 11
15 Daniel Berger 43 1119 15
16 Cameron Young 28 1079 12
17 Paul Casey 42 1074 19
18 Max Homa 53 1071 20
19 Viktor Hovland 55 1064 17
20 Corey Conners 57 1056 18
21 Joaquin Niemann 56 1028 22
22 Hideki Matsuyama 50 983 21
23 Sungjae Im 63 959 23
24 Seamus Power 44 956 26
25 Louis Oosthuizen 41 936 28
26 Billy Horschel 55 926 25
27 Keegan Bradley 58 923 27
28 Mito Pereira 35 920 24
29 Tony Finau 57 917 29
30 Tyrrell Hatton 54 899 31
31 Talor Gooch 56 893 30
32 Tommy Fleetwood 59 889 42
33 Adam Scott 39 869 33
34 Abraham Ancer 57 867 36
35 Davis Riley 36 866 35
36 Cameron Tringale 54 866 45
37 Keith Mitchell 54 866 32
38 Aaron Wise 46 852 37
39 Harold Varner 53 846 38
40 Brooks Koepka 42 843 39
41 Brian Harman 56 843 34
42 Russell Henley 48 836 40
43 Kevin Na 50 835 41
44 Webb Simpson 43 797 44
45 Brendan Steele 47 779 47
46 Chris Kirk 51 776 43
47 Joohyung Kim 16 771 109
48 Adam Hadwin 55 768 48
49 Alex Noren 53 766 49
50 Justin Rose 42 754 46
51 Bryson DeChambeau 39 719 51
52 Patrick Reed 57 714 52
53 Maverick McNealy 52 711 63
54 Sebastian Munoz 60 703 50
55 Kevin Kisner 52 697 54
56 Jason Kokrak 52 692 53
57 Sergio Garcia 49 680 56
58 Denny McCarthy 60 678 58
59 Gary Woodland 49 677 60
60 Sahith Theegala 38 677 57
61 Bubba Watson 39 674 59
62 Marc Leishman 53 672 55
63 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 53 660 65
64 Harris English 45 648 62
65 Matt Kuchar 48 645 64
66 Si Woo Kim 60 644 61
67 Ryan Palmer 50 596 75
68 Kevin Streelman 58 583 69
69 Taylor Pendrith 27 566 73
70 Mac Hughes 57 565 66
71 Charles Howell 42 565 71
72 Tom Hoge 66 564 68
73 Erik van Rooyen 52 561 67
74 Jason Day 41 559 70
75 Cameron Davis 50 556 72
76 Scott Stallings 57 549 74
77 JT Poston 58 543 77
78 Brendon Todd 57 541 76
79 Branden Grace 56 529 88
80 KH Lee 60 522 78
81 Jhonattan Vegas 52 514 84
82 Ian Poulter 55 514 80
83 Alex Smalley 33 514 113
84 Lucas Herbert 45 513 79
85 Matthew NeSmith 58 512 82
86 Sepp Straka 63 512 81
87 Nick Hardy 25 505 85
88 Taylor Moore 27 501 86
89 Charl Schwartzel 49 499 87
90 Joel Dahmen 54 497 83
91 Stewart Cink 48 493 101
92 Troy Merritt 62 490 98
93 Lanto Griffin 58 490 91
94 Matthew Wolff 44 489 90
95 Aaron Rai 59 483 89
96 Doug Ghim 54 480 108
97 CT Pan 51 477 96
98 Thomas Pieters 44 477 94
99 Matt Jones 57 475 95
100 Adam Long 60 473 97
101 Pat Perez 54 471 99
102 Luke List 59 468 93
103 David Lipsky 39 467 92
104 Patton Kizzire 56 447 100
105 Lee Westwood 49 439 106
106 Chez Reavie 57 436 105
107 Robert MacIntyre 54 435 103
108 Adam Svensson 33 434 115
109 Anirban Lahiri 46 432 102
110 Russell Knox 60 432 107
111 Emiliano Grillo 58 429 110
112 Taylor Montgomery 9 424 111
113 Francesco Molinari 35 423 104
114 Beau Hossler 57 415 112
115 Wyndham Clark 57 407 130
116 Rickie Fowler 45 399 116
117 Kurt Kitayama 48 399 171
118 Oliver Bekker 22 396 117
119 John Huh 44 396 114
120 Andrew Putnam 59 390 120
121 Charley Hoffman 54 382 118
122 Lucas Glover 57 380 119
123 Nate Lashley 51 379 122
124 Brandon Wu 32 379 192
125 Martin Laird 45 379 123
126 Dylan Frittelli 60 378 121
127 Sam Horsfield 43 377 124
128 Carlos Ortiz 54 376 125
129 Hennie du Plessis 19 374 126
130 Adam Schenk 65 370 127
131 Steve Stricker 13 355 128
132 Mark Hubbard 57 348 140
133 Hayden Buckley 33 346 129
134 Ryan Fox 46 342 134
135 Zach Johnson 47 341 133
136 Richard Bland 52 338 135
137 JJ Spaun 56 338 132
138 Cameron Champ 48 334 136
139 Lee Hodges 35 333 131
140 Rasmus Hojgaard 51 330 187
141 Nick Taylor 57 328 137
142 Patrick Flavin 9 328 154
143 Thriston Lawrence 25 327 178
144 Jason Scrivener 45 327 182
145 Thomas Detry 53 320 196
146 Matthias Schwab 55 319 142
147 Patrick Rodgers 65 319 138
148 Sam Ryder 62 318 139
149 Jordan Smith 56 317 169
150 James Hahn 45 315 146
151 Bernd Wiesberger 52 313 147
152 Rory Sabbatini 49 313 149
153 Adri Arnaus 51 312 148
154 Danny Willett 55 311 143
155 Michael Thompson 50 309 141
156 Scott Piercy 53 309 152
157 Peter Malnati 60 308 150
158 Justin Harding 56 307 144
159 Matt Wallace 59 306 145
160 Doc Redman 55 304 155
161 John Augenstein 12 300 158
162 Min Woo Lee 46 300 151
163 Hudson Swafford 54 298 157
164 Adrian Meronk 52 296 153
165 Tyler Duncan 61 295 168
166 Dean Burmester 55 294 212
167 Harry Higgs 58 291 156
168 Pablo Larrazabal 48 291 161
169 Chad Ramey 30 290 163
170 Robert Streb 56 286 159
171 Harry Hall 8 286 167
172 Hank Lebioda 51 285 164
173 Vincent Whaley 58 280 179
174 Padraig Harrington 39 278 160
175 Fabrizio Zanotti 37 278 180
176 Victor Perez 48 277 165
177 Jamie Donaldson 50 277 264
178 Austin Smotherman 26 276 162
179 Ryan Armour 51 275 166
180 Justin Lower 26 272 191
181 Phil Mickelson 35 269 175
182 Brandt Snedeker 55 269 176
183 Chesson Hadley 54 267 170
184 Danny Lee 52 265 177
185 Guido Migliozzi 54 264 172
186 Garrick Higgo 55 264 173
187 Stephan Jaeger 37 260 174
188 Mikko Korhonen 42 254 200
189 Trey Mullinax 27 254 213
190 Hurly Long 27 253 215
191 Greyson Sigg 38 253 183
192 Martin Kaymer 38 247 184
193 Kramer Hickok 54 247 194
194 Graeme McDowell 48 247 185
195 Callum Tarren 27 245 181
196 Alexander Bjork 47 242 195
197 Takumi Kanaya 35 242 188
198 Brian Stuard 69 241 186
199 Austin Eckroat 11 238 189
200 Laurie Canter 48 237 190
201 Sean O’Hair 35 230 226
202 Satoshi Kodaira 48 230 199
203 Adrian Otaegui 59 228 201
204 Dylan Wu 28 226 207
205 Antoine Rozner 54 226 193
206 Haotong Li 41 225 198
207 Brice Garnett 59 224 197
208 MJ Daffue 16 222 202
209 Thorbjorn Olesen 43 220 235
210 Kevin Chappell 28 217 222
211 Julien Brun 19 213 219
212 Marcus Armitage 56 211 204
213 Kyle Stanley 50 210 208
214 Yannik Paul 17 210 231
215 Romain Langasque 53 209 209
216 Andrew Novak 29 209 203
217 Jinichiro Kozuma 22 208 214
218 Edoardo Molinari 51 208 205
219 Andrew Johnston 24 206 217
220 Henrik Stenson 49 205 206
221 Tyler McCumber 39 204 220
222 Chase Seiffert 49 201 211
223 Ryosuke Kinoshita 23 201 223
224 Ryan Moore 32 200 210
225 Roger Sloan 55 200 216
226 Byeong Hun An 38 200 221
227 William McGirt 29 197 218
228 Andrew Landry 41 194 228
229 Michael Gligic 55 193 236
230 Richy Werenski 58 190 225
231 Johannes Veerman 49 190 227
232 Jonathan Byrd 33 188 230
233 Henrik Norlander 56 188 224
234 Kelly Kraft 43 184 229
235 Victor Dubuisson 25 184 233
236 Richard Mansell 27 182 239
237 Richie Ramsay 53 182 240
238 Bo Hoag 56 181 232
239 Joseph Bramlett 58 181 241
240 Luke Donald 49 180 234
241 Vaughn Taylor 47 178 238
242 Marcel Schneider 39 177 237
243 Chase Koepka 8 177 243
244 Justin Suh 16 176 242
245 Espen Kofstad 20 175 289
246 Todd Sinnott 10 175 246
247 Peter Uihlein 37 174 245
248 Austin Cook 56 173 253
249 Cameron Percy 44 171 247
250 JC Ritchie 26 171 251
251 Calum Hill 41 170 250
252 Wade Ormsby 41 170 248
253 Matthias Schmid 30 170 292
254 Kalle Samooja 51 169 244
255 Brandon Hagy 58 168 263
256 Sami Valimaki 50 168 316
257 Matthieu Pavon 55 167 277
258 Lukas Nemecz 18 166 254
259 Jim Furyk 12 166 256
260 Jimmy Walker 41 166 262
261 Camilo Villegas 53 165 279
262 Maximilian Kieffer 51 165 297
263 Matthew Jordan 55 165 255
264 Davis Thompson 11 165 261
265 Scott Jamieson 49 164 252
266 Marcel Siem 32 163 249
267 Max McGreevy 29 162 298
268 Ashun Wu 42 160 265
269 Nicolai Hojgaard 49 160 260
270 Tom Lewis 45 160 258
271 Shaun Norris 32 159 267
272 Brandon Stone 50 159 259
273 Rafa Cabrera Bello 58 158 286
274 Wesley Bryan 27 157 257
275 Masahiro Kawamura 61 156 266
276 Wil Besseling 54 155 268
277 Justin Walters 58 154 269
278 Niklas Norgaard Moller 19 154 287
279 John Catlin 52 153 270
280 Jorge Campillo 60 153 271
281 Sean Crocker 57 151 272
282 Frederic LaCroix 16 150 276
283 Bill Haas 51 150 273
284 Shubhankar Sharma 59 148 274
285 James Morrison 56 147 311
286 Marcus Helligkilde 16 147 380
287 Trevor Fisher 8 146 281
288 Stephen Stallings 8 146
289 Bronson Burgoon 44 145 284
290 Yuki Inamori 23 145 285
291 George Coetzee 42 144 275
292 Nick Watney 53 143 280
293 Callum Shinkwin 48 142 278
294 Tiger Woods 8 141 283
295 Bo Van Pelt 46 141 303
296 Andy Sullivan 53 140 282
297 David Law 56 139 301
298 Kevin Tway 52 138 290
299 Ben Kohles 26 137 354
300 Scott Vincent 32 136 293
301 Chan Kim 28 136 295
302 Ben Martin 39 135 288
303 Wilco Nienaber 45 134 296
304 Ricardo Gouveia 20 134 386
305 Bryson Nimmer 8 133 302
306 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 19 132 294
307 Aaron Baddeley 37 132 304
308 Connor Syme 54 132 325
309 David Lingmerth 26 130 291
310 Francesco Laporta 53 130 310
311 Tapio Pulkkanen 53 129 299
312 Joachim B Hansen 56 129 300
313 Ross Fisher 52 129 309
314 Hideto Tanihara 16 127 315
315 Joakim Lagergren 50 126 306
316 Santiago Tarrio Ben 27 126 305
317 Paul Barjon 33 126 307
318 Brad Kennedy 13 123 317
319 Jim Herman 44 122 312
320 Shugo Imahira 21 122 322
321 Chase Hanna 27 122 313
322 Daniel van Tonder 43 121 314
323 Niall Kearney 26 121 321
324 Angel Hidalgo 9 121 323
325 Martin Trainer 57 121 318
326 Grant Forrest 54 119 320
327 Sebastian Soderberg 54 119 340
328 Robby Shelton 40 119 319
329 Robert Garrigus 21 118 308
330 Rikuya Hoshino 27 118 329
331 Seonghyeon Kim 8 117 330
332 Ewen Ferguson 36 117 324
333 Sihwan Kim 40 117 332
334 Jazz Janewattananond 53 116 326
335 Jack Senior 53 114 328
336 Jacques Kruyswijk 34 114 338
337 Ben Taylor 25 114 341
338 Jeff Winther 48 114 327
339 James Piot 8 113 339
340 Dale Whitnell 57 113 331
341 Rob Oppenheim 33 112 337
342 Mark Anderson 27 112 345
343 Jason Dufner 52 112 353
344 Matthew Southgate 55 111 334
345 David Horsey 54 111 333
346 Julien Guerrier 53 110 336
347 Curtis Thompson 30 110 335
348 Will Gordon 37 109 346
349 Kazuki Higa 20 109 347
350 Sung Kang 62 109 344
351 Daniel Gavins 35 108 342
352 Joost Luiten 50 107 349
353 Alexander Levy 44 107 351
354 Jim Knous 24 106 343
355 Darren Fichardt 33 106 352
356 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 37 104 348
357 Ockie Strydom 8 103 357
358 Kristoffer Broberg 37 102 350
359 Craig Howie 26 100 359
360 Louis de Jager 32 100 358
361 Aaron Cockerill 50 100 356
362 Jacques Blaauw 9 98 361
363 Keenan Davidse 8 98 363
364 Scott Gutschewski 26 98 355
365 Keita Nakajima 14 97 364
366 Ryan Brehm 40 96 360
367 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 49 95 362
368 Chris Stroud 16 95 434
369 Michael Gellerman 22 94 366
370 Seth Reeves 28 93 387
371 Seung-yul Noh 30 93 370
372 Grayson Murray 31 91 365
373 Eddie Pepperell 46 91 368
374 Darius van Driel 52 90 369
375 Scott Brown 47 90 367
376 CJ du Plessis 8 88 372
377 Adrien Saddier 37 85 375
378 Marcus Kinhult 44 85 371
379 Nacho Elvira 59 85 373
380 Michael Kim 37 84 501
381 Hiroshi Iwata 20 84 378
382 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 53 83 374
383 Rafael Campos 31 82 382
384 Chris Baker 28 81 381
385 Dawie van der Walt 28 79 379
386 Jared Wolfe 26 78 376
387 Richard Sterne 23 78 388
388 Ollie Schniederjans 10 78 384
389 Josh Teater 25 77 377
390 Oscar Lengden 10 77 389
391 Paul Waring 38 76 391
392 Fabian Gomez 36 76 383
393 David Skinns 24 76 385
394 Nicolas Colsaerts 31 75 393
395 Bryce Easton 33 75 395
396 Nino Bertasio 49 74 390
397 Scott Harrington 36 74 394
398 Jayden Schaper 14 73 397
399 Akshay Bhatia 15 73 392
400 Neil Schietekat 11 73 398
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Perspectives on the Genesis Scottish Open

July 6, 2022 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the Scottish Open. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.583
Tyrrell Hatton 0.545
Padraig Harrington 0.524
Alexander Bjork 0.468
Aaron Rai 0.456
Lucas Herbert 0.451
Thomas Detry 0.431
Matt Wallace 0.412

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Jon Rahm 1 1608.5
Patrick Cantlay 2 1534.6
Xander Schauffele 4 1498.5
Scottie Scheffler 5 1494.2
Justin Thomas 6 1475.4
Will Zalatoris 7 1360.6
Cameron Smith 8 1312.6
Matthew Fitzpatrick 9 1240.4

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player Rank Rating
Rory McIlroy 3 1532.4
Dustin Johnson 13 1126.3
Shane Lowry 14 1125.8
Daniel Berger 15 1118.9

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Upward change
Will Zalatoris 2199.9
Matthew Fitzpatrick 1550.9
Sahith Theegala 1521.1
Scottie Scheffler 1348.9
Xander Schauffele 1294.4
Chris Kirk 1213.9
Keith Mitchell 1111.4
John Huh 1015.9

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Downward change
Keegan Bradley -928.8
Alex Noren -726.3
Viktor Hovland -619.5
Erik van Rooyen -581.9
Tom Hoge -577.8
Ryan Palmer -489.3
Sepp Straka -482.4
Jason Kokrak -474.1

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Renaissance Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value Statistic
0.34 Shots gained putting
0.32 Shots gained in approach
0.24 Shots gained around the green
0.16 Shots gained off the tee

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Cameron Smith 67.08
Ryan Fox 67.28
Matthew Fitzpatrick 67.66
Justin Thomas 67.76
Tyrrell Hatton 67.88
Scottie Scheffler 67.88
Sam Burns 67.93
Padraig Harrington 68.07

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Chris Wood 73.2
Sean Crocker 72.3
Jonathan Caldwell 72.3
Stephen Gallacher 72.2
Scott Hend 72.0
Guido Migliozzi 71.9
Charley Hoffman 71.8
Danny Lee 71.7

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and North Berwick, Scotland, the event venue.

Player Residence Distance
Victor Perez Dundee, Scotland 29
Robert MacIntyre Oban, Scotland 100
Callum Tarren Darlington, England 125
Tommy Fleetwood Southport, England 175
Danny Willett Sheffield, England 200
Matthew Fitzpatrick Sheffield, England 200
Aaron Rai Wolverhampton, England 250
Andy Sullivan Nuneaton, England 250

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic Correlation to results
Top of the heap 0.333
I love this place 0.170
Ooh, that’s hot 0.154
Location, location, location 0.000

Genesis Scottish Open

July 4, 2022 Thomas Hawley , ,
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Matthew Fitzpatrick 12.8 6
2 Will Zalatoris 13.4 87
3 Scottie Scheffler 14.2 87
4 Xander Schauffele 14.5 1
5 Jon Rahm 14.5 55
6 Patrick Cantlay 16.7 4
7 Justin Thomas 16.9 137
8 Cameron Smith 29.7 10
9 Sam Burns 30.9 66
10 Cameron Young 33.0 151
11 Max Homa 33.5 16
12 Hideki Matsuyama 36.0 109
13 Jordan Spieth 36.4 10
14 Corey Conners 38.6 61
15 Sungjae Im 39.0 109
16 Keith Mitchell 39.0 36
17 Collin Morikawa 39.0 87
18 Joaquin Niemann 40.0 16
19 Tyrrell Hatton 40.3 24
20 Chris Kirk 40.6 71
21 Mito Pereira 41.1 109
22 Justin Rose 42.0 69
23 Viktor Hovland 42.4 109
24 Sahith Theegala 43.4 DNP
25 Brian Harman 44.1 151
26 Billy Horschel 45.5 87
27 Aaron Rai 45.7 124
28 Tommy Fleetwood 46.7 4
29 Min Woo Lee 47.9 146
30 Harold Varner 48.2 DNP
31 Lucas Herbert 49.2 73
32 Keegan Bradley 50.1 130
33 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 50.9 16
34 Matt Kuchar 50.9 47
35 Sebastian Munoz 51.8 73
36 Cameron Tringale 52.0 6
37 Marc Leishman 53.0 87
38 Gary Woodland 53.5 30
39 Mac Hughes 54.0 130
40 Alex Noren 55.5 30
41 Jason Kokrak 55.6 100
42 John Huh 56.5 DNP
43 Si Woo Kim 56.6 109
44 Luke List 56.7 109
45 Maverick McNealy 57.3 16
46 Matthew NeSmith 57.7 146
47 Joel Dahmen 58.3 109
48 KH Lee 58.8 87
49 Ryan Fox 59.2 47
50 Kevin Streelman 60.1 DNP
51 Francesco Molinari 60.2 149
52 Chez Reavie 60.6 DNP
53 Tom Hoge 61.0 109
54 Rickie Fowler 61.0 47
55 Ryan Palmer 61.1 16
56 Robert MacIntyre 61.2 87
57 Erik van Rooyen 61.4 109
58 David Lipsky 61.8 130
59 Joohyung Kim 62.1 3
60 Sepp Straka 62.6 109
61 Jhonattan Vegas 62.6 36
62 Alex Smalley 62.6 10
63 Matt Wallace 62.9 124
64 Brandon Stone 62.9 73
65 Alexander Bjork 62.9 42
66 Wyndham Clark 62.9 16
67 Taylor Moore 63.1 DNP
68 Russell Knox 63.3 42
69 Padraig Harrington 63.4 137
70 Victor Perez 63.4 130
71 Patrick Rodgers 63.4 87
72 Hayden Buckley 63.5 DNP
73 Andrew Putnam 63.7 DNP
74 Troy Merritt 64.1 30
75 Adrian Meronk 64.1 130
76 Bi-o Kim 64.3 109
77 Jordan Smith 64.4 24
78 Doug Ghim 64.7 16
79 Lee Hodges 64.9 DNP
80 Stewart Cink 65.0 24
81 Anirban Lahiri 65.1 73
82 Dylan Frittelli 65.2 47
83 Fabrizio Zanotti 65.4 36
84 Lee Jaekyeong 65.4 151
85 Thomas Detry 65.4 10
86 Haotong Li 65.7 55
87 Guido Migliozzi 65.8 72
88 Edoardo Molinari 66.0 73
89 Adri Arnaus 66.1 47
90 Lucas Glover 66.5 109
91 Michael Thompson 66.8 DNP
92 Charley Hoffman 66.9 69
93 Callum Tarren 66.9 87
94 Matthias Schwab 67.1 DNP
95 Nick Taylor 67.4 55
96 Thriston Lawrence 67.5 24
97 Danny Willett 68.0 137
98 JJ Spaun 68.2 59
99 Kalle Samooja 68.3 100
100 Jorge Campillo 68.4 87
101 Antoine Rozner 68.5 146
102 Mikko Korhonen 68.7 30
103 Harris English 68.8 42
104 Danny Lee 68.9 DNP
105 Robert Streb 69.0 137
106 Richie Ramsay 69.0 DNP
107 Garrick Higgo 69.2 151
108 Matthieu Pavon 69.4 36
109 Dean Burmester 69.4 10
110 Johannes Veerman 69.5 87
111 Kurt Kitayama 69.6 2
112 Henrik Stenson 69.8 100
113 Jason Scrivener 69.8 16
114 Stephan Jaeger 70.0 100
115 Marcus Armitage 70.3 61
116 Rasmus Hojgaard 70.7 10
117 Joakim Lagergren 71.1 73
118 Andy Sullivan 71.2 73
119 Brandon Wu 71.3 6
120 John Catlin 71.4 124
121 Luke Donald 71.4 124
122 Thorbjorn Olesen 71.5 30
123 Masahiro Kawamura 71.5 100
124 Kramer Hickok 71.7 DNP
125 Andrea Pavan 71.9 149
126 Shubhankar Sharma 71.9 87
127 Jeff Winther 72.1 100
128 Jamie Donaldson 72.2 6
129 Maximilian Kieffer 72.3 30
130 Grant Forrest 72.7 100
131 James Morrison 72.7 36
132 David Horsey 72.8 WD
133 Sami Valimaki 73.0 24
134 Ashun Wu 73.0 55
135 Matthew Jordan 73.1 59
136 Sean Crocker 73.1 66
137 Kristoffer Broberg 73.3 109
138 Marcus Kinhult 73.5 73
139 Sebastian Soderberg 73.6 47
140 Nicolai Hojgaard 73.7 100
141 Jazz Janewattananond 74.1 124
142 Daniel van Tonder 74.3 73
143 Ewen Ferguson 74.3 61
144 Nick Watney 74.3 73
145 Tapio Pulkkanen 74.3 100
146 Rafa Cabrera Bello 74.4 36
147 Jack Senior 74.4 109
148 Francesco Laporta 74.4 DNP
149 Joachim B Hansen 74.6 109
150 Max McGreevy 74.7 DNP
151 Kevin Tway 74.7 DNP
152 Scott Hend 74.8 130
153 Daniel Gavins 74.8 73
154 Martin Trainer 75.0 DNP
155 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 75.1 151
156 Stephen Gallacher 75.5 73
157 Nacho Elvira 75.6 61
158 Steven Brown 76.9 137
159 Thomas Bjorn 77.1 151
160 Maverick Antcliff 77.3 158
161 Jonathan Caldwell 78.0 137
162 Chris Wood 78.1 157
Branden Grace late entry 28
Connor Syme late entry 42
Adrian Otaegui late entry 45
David Law late entry 49
Rikard Karlberg late entry 51
Marc Warren late entry 65
Justin Harding late entry 66
Nino Bertasio late entry 73
Callum Shinkwin late entry 84
Matthew Southgate late entry 92
Wil Besseling late entry 129
Julien Guerrier late entry 136
Ryan Armour late entry 139
Ian Poulter late entry 140
Andrew Novak late entry 145
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 135. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Barbasol Championship

July 4, 2022 Thomas Hawley , ,
Dustin Johnson
Christopher Gotterup
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Christopher Gotterup 47.2 110
2 Taylor Pendrith 53.2 13
3 John Huh 55.8 84
4 Kevin Streelman 57.2 2
5 Adam Svensson 59.1 6
6 Taylor Moore 60.4 21
7 Patton Kizzire 61.7 84
8 Hayden Buckley 62.3 63
9 Chesson Hadley 63.7 68
10 Lee Hodges 63.8 110
11 Conrad Shindler 64.2 60
12 Mark Hubbard 65.3 3
13 Michael Thompson 65.8 142
14 James Hahn 66.2 27
15 Tyler Duncan 67.1 13
16 Sam Ryder 67.1 84
17 Ryan Armour 67.2 DNP
18 Patrick Flavin 67.3 21
19 Hank Lebioda 67.7 41
20 Doc Redman 68.7 21
21 Harry Higgs 68.7 124
22 Austin Smotherman 68.8 54
23 Vincent Whaley 69.3 5
24 Kelly Kraft 69.5 142
25 Marcel Schneider 69.7 84
26 Greyson Sigg 69.7 27
27 Austin Cook 69.7 27
28 Brice Garnett 69.8 110
29 Ryan Moore 69.9 54
30 William McGirt 70.1 50
31 Justin Lower 70.4 8
32 Andrew Novak 70.5 DNP
33 Brian Stuard 70.6 110
34 Hurly Long 70.7 4
35 Michael Gligic 70.7 21
36 Bill Haas 70.8 99
37 Satoshi Kodaira 71.0 27
38 Kramer Hickok 71.1 13
39 Jonathan Byrd 71.3 41
40 Julien Brun 71.5 27
41 Chase Seiffert 71.5 110
42 Dylan Wu 71.8 21
43 Yannik Paul 71.9 20
44 Justin Walters 71.9 63
45 Bo Hoag 72.0 110
46 Sean O’Hair 72.0 8
47 Trey Mullinax 72.1 1
48 Vaughn Taylor 72.1 110
49 Roger Sloan 72.2 84
50 Kevin Chappell 72.2 21
51 Henrik Norlander 72.5 124
52 Marcel Siem 72.5 81
53 Richy Werenski 72.5 WD
54 Lukas Nemecz 72.6 41
55 Niklas Norgaard Moller 73.3 27
56 Tom Lewis 73.3 50
57 Espen Kofstad 73.3 13
58 Cameron Percy 73.3 41
59 Santiago Tarrio Ben 73.4 60
60 Scott Jamieson 73.4 54
61 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 73.5 47
62 Wesley Bryan 73.6 142
63 Aaron Baddeley 73.7 41
64 Brandon Hagy 73.8 27
65 David Lingmerth 73.8 99
66 Matthias Schmid 74.1 8
67 George Coetzee 74.1 WD
68 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 74.1 124
69 Camilo Villegas 74.2 13
70 Dale Whitnell 74.2 99
71 Ben Martin 74.2 84
72 Paul Barjon 74.4 54
73 Kevin Tway 74.7 50
74 Max McGreevy 74.7 13
75 Bo Van Pelt 74.8 27
76 Robert Garrigus 74.8 99
77 Jim Knous 75.0 77
78 Jim Herman 75.1 78
79 Chase Hanna 75.1 68
80 Martin Trainer 75.1 84
81 Grayson Murray 75.2 WD
82 Curtis Thompson 75.5 WD
83 Seung-yul Noh 75.6 41
84 Sung Kang 75.7 99
85 Aaron Cockerill 75.8 60
86 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 75.8 68
87 Jason Dufner 75.9 27
88 Ben Kohles 75.9 13
89 Scott Gutschewski 76.0 99
90 Ryan Brehm 76.1 81
91 Marcus Helligkilde 76.1 8
92 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 76.2 84
93 Scott Brown 76.3 54
94 Jonas Blixt 76.3 139
95 David Skinns 76.4 68
96 Josh Teater 76.5 63
97 Fabian Gomez 76.5 124
98 Jared Wolfe 76.6 84
99 Richard Sterne 76.7 DNP
100 Dawie van der Walt 76.7 74
101 Ricardo Gouveia 76.8 8
102 Tommy Gainey 76.9 132
103 Seth Reeves 76.9 27
104 Renato Paratore 77.1 148
105 Gavin Green 77.1 99
106 Niklas Lemke 77.3 99
107 Benjamin Hebert 77.4 147
108 Greg Chalmers 77.4 47
109 Andrew Wilson 77.5 WD
110 Ted Potter 77.5 124
111 Chris Stroud 77.6 27
112 Soren Kjeldsen 77.6 74
113 Oliver Wilson 77.6 84
114 Garrick Porteous 77.8 110
115 Alejandro Canizares 78.0 110
116 Richard McEvoy 78.0 132
117 David Hearn 78.0 68
118 Josh Geary 78.1 50
119 Chris Paisley 78.1 84
120 Michael Kim 78.2 7
121 Lucas Bjerregaard 78.3 27
122 Hugo Leon 78.3 27
123 Joshua Creel 78.4 84
124 Derek Ernst 78.5 132
125 David Drysdale 78.5 DNP
126 Brett Drewitt 78.6 110
127 Joel Sjoholm 78.6 99
128 Julian Suri 78.8 110
129 DJ Trahan 78.8 84
130 Ricky Barnes 78.8 132
131 Jake McLeod 78.9 DNP
132 KJ Choi 78.9 DNP
133 Andres Romero 78.9 99
134 Johnson Wagner 79.0 DNP
135 Robin Roussel 79.0 27
136 Stephen Stallings 79.1 78
137 Charlie Beljan 79.3 DNP
138 Miguel Tabuena 79.4 84
139 Joel Stalter 79.4 124
140 Sangmoon Bae 79.4 132
141 JJ Henry 79.6 74
142 Carlos Pigem 79.6 54
143 Haydn Porteous 79.6 142
144 Jason Bohn 79.6 84
145 Richard S Johnson 79.7 DNP
146 DA Points 79.7 124
147 George McNeill 79.7 132
148 Kevin Stadler 79.7 110
149 Brian Davis 79.8 110
150 Ben Crane 79.8 63
151 Arjun Atwal 79.8 63
152 John Merrick 79.8 81
153 Matt Every 79.8 WD
154 Charlie Wi 79.8 DNP
155 Omar Uresti 79.8 110
156 Jacob Bridgeman 79.8 78
157 Matt Harris 79.8 146
158 Maclain Huge 79.8 139
159 Nathan Petronzio 79.8 99
160 Andrew Stephens 79.8 149
161 Gunner Wiebe 79.8 47
162 Derek Lamely 79.8 132
163 Parker McLachlin 79.8 139
164 Eric Axley 79.8 DNP
165 John Huston 79.8 DNP
Richard Johnson late entry 70
Daniel Wetterich late entry 131
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 110. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (July 3, 2022)

July 4, 2022 Thomas Hawley

Jon Rahm has been back in the no. 1 position for six weeks.
# Thru July 2, 2022 Events Hawley Rating Previous Week
1 Jon Rahm 46 1609 1
2 Patrick Cantlay 44 1535 3
3 Rory McIlroy 48 1532 2
4 Xander Schauffele 49 1499 4
5 Scottie Scheffler 58 1494 5
6 Justin Thomas 50 1475 6
7 Will Zalatoris 49 1361 7
8 Cameron Smith 47 1313 8
9 Matthew Fitzpatrick 52 1240 9
10 Sam Burns 52 1166 10
11 Collin Morikawa 52 1154 11
12 Cameron Young 27 1138 12
13 Dustin Johnson 44 1126 15
14 Shane Lowry 55 1126 13
15 Daniel Berger 44 1119 14
16 Jordan Spieth 49 1103 17
17 Viktor Hovland 55 1100 16
18 Corey Conners 57 1083 18
19 Paul Casey 43 1070 19
20 Max Homa 53 1031 20
21 Hideki Matsuyama 50 1019 21
22 Joaquin Niemann 56 992 22
23 Sungjae Im 63 983 23
24 Mito Pereira 34 958 25
25 Billy Horschel 55 954 26
26 Seamus Power 44 952 24
27 Keegan Bradley 58 944 27
28 Louis Oosthuizen 42 934 30
29 Tony Finau 58 921 28
30 Talor Gooch 57 888 32
31 Tyrrell Hatton 53 883 29
32 Keith Mitchell 54 869 33
33 Adam Scott 39 869 31
34 Brian Harman 56 867 34
35 Davis Riley 36 862 35
36 Abraham Ancer 58 861 36
37 Aaron Wise 46 846 38
38 Harold Varner 54 846 37
39 Brooks Koepka 43 842 40
40 Russell Henley 48 839 39
41 Kevin Na 51 832 42
42 Tommy Fleetwood 58 803 43
43 Chris Kirk 50 801 44
44 Webb Simpson 44 798 41
45 Cameron Tringale 53 786 46
46 Justin Rose 42 782 47
47 Brendan Steele 48 776 48
48 Adam Hadwin 56 766 45
49 Alex Noren 53 759 49
50 Sebastian Munoz 60 724 50
51 Bryson DeChambeau 40 718 53
52 Patrick Reed 58 717 56
53 Jason Kokrak 52 715 51
54 Kevin Kisner 53 700 52
55 Marc Leishman 53 691 55
56 Sergio Garcia 50 678 54
57 Sahith Theegala 38 676 61
58 Denny McCarthy 61 674 63
59 Bubba Watson 40 674 57
60 Gary Woodland 49 664 60
61 Si Woo Kim 60 664 59
62 Harris English 45 662 58
63 Maverick McNealy 52 660 64
64 Matt Kuchar 48 658 62
65 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 53 612 71
66 Mac Hughes 57 583 65
67 Erik van Rooyen 52 582 66
68 Tom Hoge 66 578 67
69 Kevin Streelman 58 565 68
70 Jason Day 42 564 69
71 Charles Howell 43 563 77
72 Cameron Davis 50 558 79
73 Taylor Pendrith 26 558 70
74 Scott Stallings 57 550 84
75 Ryan Palmer 50 547 73
76 Brendon Todd 58 543 72
77 JT Poston 59 543 87
78 KH Lee 59 535 75
79 Lucas Herbert 44 531 81
80 Ian Poulter 55 529 74
81 Sepp Straka 63 528 76
82 Matthew NeSmith 58 527 78
83 Joel Dahmen 54 512 80
84 Jhonattan Vegas 51 504 85
85 Nick Hardy 25 503 86
86 Taylor Moore 26 499 89
87 Charl Schwartzel 50 497 83
88 Branden Grace 56 496 104
89 Aaron Rai 58 495 93
90 Matthew Wolff 45 491 99
91 Lanto Griffin 59 491 82
92 David Lipsky 38 484 94
93 Luke List 59 482 91
94 Thomas Pieters 44 477 88
95 Matt Jones 57 475 96
96 CT Pan 52 475 95
97 Adam Long 61 474 101
98 Troy Merritt 62 474 90
99 Pat Perez 54 471 92
100 Patton Kizzire 55 462 105
101 Stewart Cink 48 458 98
102 Anirban Lahiri 45 449 97
103 Robert MacIntyre 53 448 108
104 Francesco Molinari 34 445 102
105 Chez Reavie 58 437 100
106 Lee Westwood 49 437 107
107 Russell Knox 59 434 106
108 Doug Ghim 53 431 103
109 Joohyung Kim 15 429 111
110 Emiliano Grillo 59 428 123
111 Taylor Montgomery 9 426 110
112 Beau Hossler 57 416 112
113 Alex Smalley 32 415 119
114 John Huh 43 413 109
115 Adam Svensson 32 412 116
116 Rickie Fowler 45 398 115
117 Oliver Bekker 22 397 125
118 Charley Hoffman 53 393 113
119 Lucas Glover 57 392 114
120 Andrew Putnam 60 390 117
121 Dylan Frittelli 60 382 121
122 Nate Lashley 52 380 118
123 Martin Laird 45 380 124
124 Sam Horsfield 43 377 134
125 Carlos Ortiz 55 375 139
126 Hennie du Plessis 19 375 120
127 Adam Schenk 65 367 122
128 Steve Stricker 14 361 126
129 Hayden Buckley 32 358 130
130 Wyndham Clark 57 354 128
131 Lee Hodges 34 348 129
132 JJ Spaun 55 346 132
133 Zach Johnson 48 344 127
134 Ryan Fox 45 342 158
135 Richard Bland 52 337 135
136 Cameron Champ 49 334 131
137 Nick Taylor 57 333 133
138 Patrick Rodgers 65 327 144
139 Sam Ryder 61 326 136
140 Mark Hubbard 57 324 160
141 Michael Thompson 49 322 137
142 Matthias Schwab 56 319 161
143 Danny Willett 55 318 146
144 Justin Harding 55 317 166
145 Matt Wallace 59 316 140
146 James Hahn 44 315 138
147 Bernd Wiesberger 53 313 143
148 Adri Arnaus 51 313 142
149 Rory Sabbatini 50 312 141
150 Peter Malnati 60 311 151
151 Min Woo Lee 45 308 145
152 Scott Piercy 54 308 147
153 Adrian Meronk 51 306 177
154 Patrick Flavin 8 304
155 Doc Redman 55 299 148
156 Harry Higgs 58 298 149
157 Hudson Swafford 54 297 154
158 John Augenstein 12 297 157
159 Robert Streb 55 294 153
160 Padraig Harrington 38 292 162
161 Pablo Larrazabal 48 291 155
162 Austin Smotherman 25 289 150
163 Chad Ramey 30 289 152
164 Hank Lebioda 50 288 164
165 Victor Perez 48 288 163
166 Ryan Armour 50 285 156
167 Harry Hall 8 284 167
168 Tyler Duncan 61 284 159
169 Jordan Smith 55 280 172
170 Chesson Hadley 53 275 188
171 Kurt Kitayama 47 274 165
172 Guido Migliozzi 53 270 169
173 Garrick Higgo 55 270 171
174 Stephan Jaeger 36 269 176
175 Phil Mickelson 36 268 168
176 Brandt Snedeker 55 268 170
177 Danny Lee 53 266 173
178 Thriston Lawrence 24 265 223
179 Vincent Whaley 57 259 175
180 Fabrizio Zanotti 36 257 214
181 Callum Tarren 26 256 251
182 Jason Scrivener 45 249 174
183 Greyson Sigg 37 248 207
184 Martin Kaymer 38 247 193
185 Graeme McDowell 49 247 180
186 Brian Stuard 69 246 179
187 Rasmus Hojgaard 50 243 178
188 Takumi Kanaya 35 240 183
189 Austin Eckroat 11 238 185
190 Laurie Canter 48 237 182
191 Justin Lower 25 236 181
192 Brandon Wu 31 235 195
193 Antoine Rozner 53 233 208
194 Kramer Hickok 53 233 184
195 Alexander Bjork 46 232 198
196 Thomas Detry 52 232 186
197 Brice Garnett 58 230 187
198 Haotong Li 41 230 189
199 Satoshi Kodaira 47 225 200
200 Mikko Korhonen 41 222 191
201 Adrian Otaegui 58 220 206
202 MJ Daffue 16 220 190
203 Andrew Novak 28 218 222
204 Marcus Armitage 55 216 196
205 Edoardo Molinari 50 214 220
206 Henrik Stenson 48 212 203
207 Dylan Wu 27 212 204
208 Kyle Stanley 50 211 205
209 Romain Langasque 53 210 213
210 Ryan Moore 32 210 238
211 Chase Seiffert 48 208 192
212 Dean Burmester 54 207 199
213 Trey Mullinax 26 207 194
214 Jinichiro Kozuma 22 207 342
215 Hurly Long 27 207 216
216 Roger Sloan 54 206 202
217 Andrew Johnston 24 206 212
218 William McGirt 29 205 197
219 Julien Brun 19 203 224
220 Tyler McCumber 39 203 217
221 Byeong Hun An 39 203 210
222 Kevin Chappell 27 202 201
223 Ryosuke Kinoshita 23 201 234
224 Henrik Norlander 56 197 211
225 Richy Werenski 57 196 215
226 Sean O’Hair 34 196 209
227 Johannes Veerman 48 196 229
228 Andrew Landry 42 193 218
229 Kelly Kraft 42 191 245
230 Jonathan Byrd 32 191 225
231 Yannik Paul 16 189 221
232 Bo Hoag 56 187 264
233 Victor Dubuisson 25 186 219
234 Luke Donald 48 185 228
235 Thorbjorn Olesen 42 185 277
236 Michael Gligic 54 185 279
237 Marcel Schneider 39 184 259
238 Vaughn Taylor 47 184 242
239 Richard Mansell 28 182 230
240 Richie Ramsay 53 181 235
241 Joseph Bramlett 58 181 226
242 Justin Suh 16 181 227
243 Chase Koepka 8 178 347
244 Kalle Samooja 50 175 231
245 Peter Uihlein 37 173 239
246 Todd Sinnott 10 173 240
247 Cameron Percy 43 173 232
248 Wade Ormsby 41 170 241
249 Marcel Siem 32 170 253
250 Calum Hill 41 170 243
251 JC Ritchie 26 169 248
252 Scott Jamieson 48 169 237
253 Austin Cook 55 168 285
254 Lukas Nemecz 18 168 233
255 Matthew Jordan 54 167 265
256 Jim Furyk 13 167 255
257 Wesley Bryan 26 166 236
258 Tom Lewis 44 166 250
259 Brandon Stone 49 165 249
260 Nicolai Hojgaard 49 165 244
261 Davis Thompson 11 164 256
262 Jimmy Walker 42 164 258
263 Brandon Hagy 57 162 254
264 Jamie Donaldson 49 161 278
265 Ashun Wu 41 161 247
266 Masahiro Kawamura 60 161 252
267 Shaun Norris 32 160 246
268 Wil Besseling 53 159 257
269 Justin Walters 57 158 281
270 John Catlin 52 157 326
271 Jorge Campillo 59 157 308
272 Sean Crocker 56 156 263
273 Bill Haas 50 155 260
274 Shubhankar Sharma 58 153 262
275 George Coetzee 41 151 261
276 Frederic LaCroix 17 149 284
277 Matthieu Pavon 54 149 266
278 Callum Shinkwin 47 148 294
279 Camilo Villegas 52 148 267
280 Nick Watney 52 148 268
281 Trevor Fisher 8 147 272
282 Andy Sullivan 52 145 269
283 Tiger Woods 9 145 271
284 Bronson Burgoon 44 145 276
285 Yuki Inamori 23 144 409
286 Rafa Cabrera Bello 58 142 270
287 Niklas Norgaard Moller 19 140 273
288 Ben Martin 38 140 275
289 Espen Kofstad 19 140 398
290 Kevin Tway 52 138 280
291 David Lingmerth 26 138 274
292 Matthias Schmid 29 136 310
293 Scott Vincent 33 135 323
294 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 18 135 346
295 Chan Kim 28 135 293
296 Wilco Nienaber 45 134 290
297 Maximilian Kieffer 50 134 309
298 Max McGreevy 28 134 283
299 Tapio Pulkkanen 52 133 286
300 Joachim B Hansen 55 133 287
301 David Law 55 132 365
302 Bryson Nimmer 8 132 295
303 Bo Van Pelt 45 132 289
304 Aaron Baddeley 36 131 298
305 Santiago Tarrio Ben 27 130 361
306 Joakim Lagergren 49 130 299
307 Paul Barjon 32 130 288
308 Robert Garrigus 20 129 282
309 Ross Fisher 52 129 291
310 Francesco Laporta 54 129 296
311 James Morrison 55 129 349
312 Jim Herman 44 128 300
313 Chase Hanna 27 127 292
314 Daniel van Tonder 42 126 297
315 Hideto Tanihara 16 126 454
316 Sami Valimaki 50 125 322
317 Brad Kennedy 13 125 305
318 Martin Trainer 56 124 304
319 Robby Shelton 40 123 301
320 Grant Forrest 53 123 302
321 Niall Kearney 27 121 306
322 Shugo Imahira 21 121 315
323 Angel Hidalgo 10 121 314
324 Ewen Ferguson 36 120 303
325 Connor Syme 53 120 307
326 Jazz Janewattananond 53 119 312
327 Jeff Winther 47 118 311
328 Jack Senior 52 118 329
329 Rikuya Hoshino 27 118 319
330 Seonghyeon Kim 8 117 321
331 Dale Whitnell 56 116 360
332 Sihwan Kim 40 116 410
333 David Horsey 53 116 313
334 Matthew Southgate 54 115 363
335 Curtis Thompson 29 114 328
336 Julien Guerrier 52 114 327
337 Rob Oppenheim 33 114 324
338 Jacques Kruyswijk 34 114 316
339 James Piot 8 113
340 Sebastian Soderberg 53 113 331
341 Ben Taylor 25 113 332
342 Daniel Gavins 35 113 320
343 Jim Knous 23 112 317
344 Sung Kang 62 112 325
345 Mark Anderson 27 111 337
346 Will Gordon 37 110 336
347 Kazuki Higa 20 109 318
348 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 37 108 330
349 Joost Luiten 51 107 341
350 Kristoffer Broberg 36 107 333
351 Alexander Levy 44 107 344
352 Darren Fichardt 33 106 335
353 Jason Dufner 52 104 343
354 Ben Kohles 25 104 334
355 Scott Gutschewski 25 104 338
356 Aaron Cockerill 49 103 339
357 Ockie Strydom 8 103 348
358 Louis de Jager 32 101 350
359 Craig Howie 27 101 340
360 Ryan Brehm 39 100 345
361 Jacques Blaauw 9 99 353
362 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 48 98 351
363 Keenan Davidse 8 98 354
364 Keita Nakajima 14 97 356
365 Grayson Murray 30 97 352
366 Michael Gellerman 22 92 364
367 Scott Brown 46 92 358
368 Eddie Pepperell 46 91 357
369 Darius van Driel 52 90 362
370 Seung-yul Noh 29 90 379
371 Marcus Kinhult 43 89 359
372 CJ du Plessis 8 89 366
373 Nacho Elvira 58 86 368
374 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 52 85 382
375 Adrien Saddier 37 85 370
376 Jared Wolfe 25 84 367
377 Josh Teater 24 84 374
378 Hiroshi Iwata 20 83 377
379 Dawie van der Walt 27 83 369
380 Marcus Helligkilde 15 82 385
381 Chris Baker 28 81 378
382 Rafael Campos 31 81 380
383 Fabian Gomez 35 81 403
384 Ollie Schniederjans 10 81 375
385 David Skinns 23 80 371
386 Ricardo Gouveia 20 80 372
387 Seth Reeves 27 79 376
388 Richard Sterne 23 78 373
389 Oscar Lengden 11 77 386
390 Nino Bertasio 48 77 390
391 Paul Waring 38 76 381
392 Akshay Bhatia 15 76 383
393 Nicolas Colsaerts 31 75 389
394 Scott Harrington 37 75 392
395 Bryce Easton 33 74 391
396 Marc Warren 46 74 384
397 Jayden Schaper 14 74 396
398 Neil Schietekat 11 74 394
399 Renato Paratore 55 73 388
400 Jaco Ahlers 12 73 400
More | Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Perspectives on the John Deere Classic

June 27, 2022 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the John Deere Classic event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Ryan Moore 0.658
Scott Brown 0.638
Zach Johnson 0.638
Lucas Glover 0.627
Vaughn Taylor 0.592
Charles Howell 0.545
Adam Schenk 0.537
Patrick Rodgers 0.481

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Daniel Berger 14 1117.7
Davis Riley 35 860.3
Webb Simpson 41 831.4
Adam Hadwin 45 787.8
Sahith Theegala 61 657.3
Denny McCarthy 63 639.6
Maverick McNealy 64 622.4
Kevin Streelman 68 572.3

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player Rank Rating
Jon Rahm 1 1608.4
Rory McIlroy 2 1532.9
Patrick Cantlay 3 1531.4
Xander Schauffele 4 1498.9

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Upward change
Denny McCarthy 1491.5
Sahith Theegala 1145.6
Nick Hardy 1093.4
John Huh 1001.1
Scott Stallings 957.4
Chez Reavie 914.0
Davis Riley 841.5
James Hahn 802.2

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Downward change
Maverick McNealy -527.6
Lanto Griffin -453.1
Patton Kizzire -441.4
Charley Hoffman -346.8
Cameron Champ -345.5
JJ Spaun -345.4
Taylor Moore -345.0
Jason Day -318.4

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Deere Run course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value Statistic
0.16 Greens in regulation
0.12 Shots gained off the tee
0.10 Shots gained around the green
0.06 Putts per GIR

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Charles Howell 68.23
Taylor Pendrith 68.48
Adam Hadwin 68.61
Davis Riley 68.64
Tyler Duncan 68.66
Ryan Armour 68.68
Maverick McNealy 68.71
Joseph Bramlett 68.74

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Joshua Creel 70.3
Chesson Hadley 70.2
Wesley Bryan 70.1
Brian Gay 70.1
Richy Werenski 69.9
Austin Cook 69.9
Kelly Kraft 69.8
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 69.7

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Silvis IL, the event venue.

Note, Zach Johnson’s listed residence is St. Simons Island GA.
Player Residence Distance
Nick Hardy Northbrook IL 200
Ryan Brehm Mount Pleasant MI 275
Brice Garnett Gallatin Missouri 375
Scott Gutschewski Elkhorn NE 375
Adam Schenk Vincennes IN 425
Robert Streb Shawnee KS 450
Jason Day Columbus Oh 500
Bo Hoag Columbus Oh 500

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic Correlation to results
Top of the heap 0.332
I love this place 0.178
Ooh, that’s hot 0.151
Location, location, location 0.003

John Deere Classic

June 27, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,
Daniel Berger
Webb Simpson
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Webb Simpson 43.0 81
2 Denny McCarthy 43.3 6
3 Adam Hadwin 44.8 96
4 Sahith Theegala 45.3 16
5 Scott Stallings 46.1 4
6 Adam Schenk 48.0 WD
7 Charles Howell 48.5 13
8 Lucas Glover 50.6 70
9 Nick Hardy 51.4 30
10 Chez Reavie 53.0 96
11 John Huh 53.6 70
12 Taylor Pendrith 54.2 DNP
13 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 54.3 2
14 Brendon Todd 54.5 43
15 Patrick Rodgers 57.1 30
16 Kevin Streelman 57.2 41
17 JT Poston 57.5 1
18 Cameron Davis 57.8 8
19 Adam Long 58.0 13
20 Zach Johnson 58.3 60
21 Maverick McNealy 59.1 8
22 Jason Day 59.5 DNP
23 James Hahn 59.8 67
24 Patton Kizzire 59.9 16
25 Adam Svensson 60.7 24
26 Andrew Putnam 60.7 41
27 Martin Laird 61.2 30
28 Nate Lashley 61.4 70
29 Sam Ryder 61.4 60
30 CT Pan 61.9 24
31 Anirban Lahiri 62.1 51
32 Nick Taylor 62.1 70
33 Taylor Moore 62.8 24
34 David Lipsky 62.8 24
35 Alex Smalley 62.8 16
36 Lanto Griffin 62.9 105
37 Tyler Duncan 63.2 WD
38 Doug Ghim 63.7 105
39 Ryan Armour 63.8 114
40 Hayden Buckley 64.0 30
41 Emiliano Grillo 64.0 2
42 Lee Hodges 64.1 43
43 Scott Brown 64.3 70
44 Michael Thompson 64.3 59
45 Matt Wallace 65.1 81
46 Chesson Hadley 65.4 10
47 Ryan Moore 65.4 24
48 Cameron Percy 65.7 105
49 Vaughn Taylor 65.7 30
50 Charley Hoffman 65.9 134
51 Dylan Frittelli 66.3 30
52 Rory Sabbatini 66.9 63
53 Mark Hubbard 66.9 13
54 Peter Malnati 67.1 30
55 Austin Smotherman 67.1 81
56 Hank Lebioda 67.7 43
57 Scott Piercy 67.9 128
58 Cameron Champ 67.9 96
59 Vincent Whaley 68.0 43
60 Chad Ramey 68.2 70
61 Robert Streb 68.3 105
62 Bill Haas 68.4 96
63 Richy Werenski 68.5 134
64 Matthias Schwab 68.8 16
65 Kevin Tway 68.8 70
66 Chris Stroud 68.9 81
67 William McGirt 68.9 114
68 Doc Redman 69.0 96
69 Kelly Kraft 69.1 24
70 Brice Garnett 69.2 81
71 Harry Higgs 69.3 96
72 Brandt Snedeker 69.4 131
73 Justin Lower 69.7 51
74 Brian Stuard 69.9 145
75 Stephan Jaeger 70.1 30
76 Kevin Chappell 70.2 134
77 Chase Seiffert 70.2 70
78 Andrew Landry 70.7 WD
79 Joseph Bramlett 70.7 105
80 Trey Mullinax 70.8 105
81 Roger Sloan 70.9 WD
82 Andrew Novak 70.9 30
83 Kramer Hickok 71.0 62
84 Sean O’Hair 71.1 81
85 Callum Tarren 71.2 6
86 Camilo Villegas 71.3 114
87 Brandon Wu 71.4 30
88 Jonathan Byrd 71.4 43
89 Nick Watney 71.6 105
90 Austin Cook 71.7 16
91 Greyson Sigg 71.8 16
92 Dylan Wu 71.8 43
93 Henrik Norlander 71.9 96
94 Michael Gligic 71.9 10
95 Brandon Hagy 72.3 63
96 Satoshi Kodaira 72.3 30
97 David Lingmerth 72.4 70
98 Wesley Bryan 72.7 81
99 Paul Barjon 73.2 134
100 Aaron Baddeley 73.5 51
101 Jim Knous 73.7 81
102 Ben Martin 73.7 128
103 Max McGreevy 73.8 114
104 Bo Hoag 73.9 16
105 Robert Garrigus 74.1 81
106 Martin Trainer 74.2 63
107 Grayson Murray 74.3 81
108 Bo Van Pelt 74.4 114
109 Scott Gutschewski 74.5 114
110 Sung Kang 74.6 131
111 Christopher Gotterup 74.7 4
112 Curtis Thompson 74.7 51
113 Ben Kohles 74.7 70
114 Mark Hensby 74.9 134
115 Jason Dufner 74.9 81
116 David Skinns 75.0 81
117 Jared Wolfe 75.1 114
118 Dawie van der Walt 75.1 114
119 Brian Gay 75.2 105
120 Jonas Blixt 75.2 96
121 Seung-yul Noh 75.3 43
122 Greg Chalmers 75.3 134
123 Ryan Brehm 75.4 81
124 Seth Reeves 75.4 66
125 Patrick Flavin 75.4 10
126 David Hearn 75.8 70
127 Johnson Wagner 75.9 145
128 John Senden 76.0 145
129 Shawn Stefani 76.1 131
130 Fabian Gomez 76.3 43
131 Ricky Barnes 76.3 69
132 Tommy Gainey 76.4 51
133 Boo Weekley 76.5 114
134 DJ Trahan 76.8 134
135 Brett Drewitt 76.9 105
136 Joshua Creel 77.1 96
137 Chris Naegel 77.5 16
138 John Merrick 77.6 81
139 Derek Ernst 77.8 51
140 Richard S Johnson 78.3 134
141 DA Points 78.3 114
142 Brian Davis 78.3 134
143 Kevin Stadler 78.3 145
144 Ben Crane 78.3 128
145 Arjun Atwal 78.4 114
146 Matt Every 78.4 152
147 Charles Jahn 78.4 145
148 Luke Gannon 78.4 151
149 Morgan Hoffmann 78.4 51
150 Nathan Petronzio 78.4 114
151 Omar Uresti 78.4 67
152 Parker McLachlin 78.4 143
153 Preston Stanley 78.4 51
154 Quinn Riley 78.4 143
155 Ryuji Imada 78.4 114
156 Sean McCarty 78.4 114
KJ Choi late entry 88
Ted Potter late entry 149
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 96. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Horizon Irish Open

June 27, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,

Shane Lowry
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Shane Lowry 32.8 9
2 Seamus Power 34.9 30
3 Tyrrell Hatton 47.6 108
4 Aaron Rai 53.4 9
5 Thomas Pieters 56.8 37
6 Lucas Herbert 57.1 9
7 Andy Sullivan 62.5 76
8 Jorge Campillo 63.5 7
9 Troy Merritt 63.8 108
10 Jordan Smith 65.3 24
11 Adri Arnaus 65.3 89
12 Pablo Larrazabal 65.4 46
13 Robert MacIntyre 66.2 13
14 Oliver Bekker 66.3 16
15 Ryan Fox 66.3 2
16 Guido Migliozzi 66.4 151
17 Min Woo Lee 68.0 58
18 Alexander Bjork 68.1 20
19 Mikko Korhonen 68.4 37
20 Adrian Meronk 68.5 1
21 Jason Scrivener 68.6 79
22 Richie Ramsay 68.6 37
23 Joakim Lagergren 69.0 46
24 Padraig Harrington 69.1 30
25 Marcel Schneider 69.2 20
26 Zander Lombard 69.2 76
27 Fabrizio Zanotti 69.3 4
28 Grant Forrest 69.4 89
29 Edoardo Molinari 69.7 24
30 Romain Langasque 69.7 30
31 Kurt Kitayama 69.8 89
32 Thorbjorn Olesen 70.0 8
33 Rasmus Hojgaard 70.0 127
34 Antoine Rozner 70.2 13
35 Thomas Detry 70.3 58
36 Marcus Armitage 70.4 37
37 Masahiro Kawamura 70.6 108
38 George Coetzee 70.7 108
39 Brandon Stone 70.8 46
40 Kalle Samooja 71.0 142
41 Victor Dubuisson 71.1 WD
42 Dean Burmester 71.1 79
43 Wil Besseling 71.3 58
44 Hurly Long 71.3 37
45 Yannik Paul 71.4 58
46 Thriston Lawrence 71.5 3
47 Lukas Nemecz 71.6 89
48 Johannes Veerman 71.7 24
49 JC Ritchie 71.8 DNP
50 Maximilian Kieffer 72.0 30
51 Niklas Norgaard Moller 72.1 58
52 John Catlin 72.3 4
53 Sean Crocker 72.4 46
54 Julien Brun 72.4 30
55 Scott Jamieson 72.5 142
56 Julien Guerrier 72.9 46
57 Ashun Wu 72.9 120
58 Justin Walters 73.0 20
59 Frederic LaCroix 73.0 37
60 Robert Rock 73.0 108
61 Niall Kearney 73.1 58
62 Shubhankar Sharma 73.1 89
63 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 73.2 89
64 Matthieu Pavon 73.2 67
65 Marcel Siem 73.3 37
66 Jamie Donaldson 73.3 20
67 Richard Sterne 73.4 108
68 Darren Fichardt 73.4 134
69 Ewen Ferguson 73.4 79
70 Darius van Driel 73.6 89
71 Matthew Jordan 73.6 24
72 Callum Shinkwin 73.6 24
73 James Morrison 73.6 13
74 Dale Whitnell 73.7 16
75 Kazuki Higa 73.7 78
76 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 73.8 24
77 Sebastian Soderberg 73.8 46
78 Kristoffer Broberg 73.8 117
79 Jazz Janewattananond 73.8 139
80 Jack Senior 73.9 37
81 Nicolai Hojgaard 73.9 74
82 Jeff Winther 74.0 149
83 Ross Fisher 74.1 89
84 Tapio Pulkkanen 74.1 73
85 Rafa Cabrera Bello 74.1 89
86 Sami Valimaki 74.2 30
87 Francesco Laporta 74.2 79
88 Daniel van Tonder 74.3 108
89 Jacques Kruyswijk 74.3 139
90 Matthias Schmid 74.4 30
91 Joachim B Hansen 74.4 89
92 Connor Syme 74.4 127
93 Matthew Southgate 74.5 16
94 Paul Waring 74.5 89
95 David Horsey 74.5 117
96 Chase Hanna 74.6 79
97 Craig Howie 74.8 89
98 Daniel Gavins 74.8 WD
99 Eddie Pepperell 74.9 89
100 Santiago Tarrio Ben 74.9 16
101 Ashley Chesters 75.0 89
102 David Law 75.0 4
103 Nacho Elvira 75.0 134
104 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 75.0 120
105 Marc Warren 75.0 74
106 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 75.1 120
107 Ricardo Gouveia 75.1 70
108 Benjamin Hebert 75.1 108
109 Marcus Kinhult 75.2 127
110 Maverick Antcliff 75.4 67
111 Daan Huizing 75.4 127
112 Espen Kofstad 75.6 9
113 Marcus Helligkilde 75.7 46
114 Oliver Farr 75.8 46
115 Gavin Green 76.0 89
116 Stephen Gallacher 76.1 58
117 Chris Paisley 76.1 117
118 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 76.1 37
119 Sihwan Kim 76.1 DNP
120 Oliver Fisher 76.2 127
121 Nino Bertasio 76.2 46
122 Richard McEvoy 76.4 79
123 Scott Hend 76.4 58
124 Lorenzo Gagli 76.4 46
125 Alejandro Canizares 76.5 142
126 Oliver Wilson 76.6 70
127 Andrew Wilson 76.6 120
128 Soren Kjeldsen 76.6 46
129 Steven Brown 76.6 79
130 Renato Paratore 76.7 58
131 Dave Coupland 76.7 DNP
132 Pep Angles 76.8 DNP
133 Jack Singh Brar 76.8 WD
134 Andrea Pavan 76.8 152
135 Alvaro Quiros 76.9 67
136 David Drysdale 76.9 145
137 Raphael Jacquelin 77.0 89
138 Ross McGowan 77.1 DNP
139 Ricardo Santos 77.1 120
140 Cormac Sharvin 77.3 127
141 Rikard Karlberg 77.4 70
142 Jonathan Caldwell 77.4 134
143 Sebastian Heisele 77.4 108
144 Hugo Leon 77.4 46
145 Thomas Bjorn 77.5 DNP
146 Julian Suri 77.5 89
147 Lucas Bjerregaard 77.5 89
148 Zach Murray 77.7 79
149 Chris Wood 77.7 134
150 Robin Roussel 77.8 79
151 Joel Stalter 78.0 120
152 Graeme Storm 78.3 DNP
153 Alex Fitzpatrick 78.4 145
154 Mark Power 78.4 89
155 Colm Campbell 78.4 145
156 David Higgins 78.4 153
157 Greig Hutcheon 78.4 127
158 Hui-lin Zhang 78.4 DNP
159 Haydn Porteous 78.4 134
160 David Howell 78.7 139
Aaron Cockerill late entry 81
Niklas Lemke late entry 121
Paul Dunne late entry 147
John Murphy late entry 150
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 154. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

LIV Portland

June 27, 2022 Thomas Hawley

Dustin Johnson
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Dustin Johnson 39.6 4
2 Talor Gooch 44.1 7
3 Kevin Na 45.6 11
4 Abraham Ancer 46.6 11
5 Louis Oosthuizen 47.8 4
6 Brooks Koepka 49.6 16
7 Patrick Reed 51.5 3
8 Charl Schwartzel 55.4 40
9 Sergio Garcia 56.8 27
10 Pat Perez 56.9 35
11 Bryson DeChambeau 57.1 10
12 Ian Poulter 59.8 40
13 Matt Jones 61.2 16
14 Branden Grace 61.9 1
15 Matthew Wolff 64.0 8
16 Hennie du Plessis 64.1 29
17 Sam Horsfield 64.6 11
18 Lee Westwood 65.0 21
19 Graeme McDowell 65.4 35
20 Justin Harding 65.9 8
21 Richard Bland 66.1 29
22 Bernd Wiesberger 66.6 37
23 Phil Mickelson 68.8 44
24 Laurie Canter 68.9 37
25 Hudson Swafford 69.1 29
26 Adrian Otaegui 69.5 22
27 Phachara Khongwatmai 69.8 29
28 Martin Kaymer 70.5 16
29 Peter Uihlein 71.6 40
30 Ryosuke Kinoshita 71.9 23
31 Wade Ormsby 72.7 37
32 Shaun Norris 72.8 48
33 Scott Vincent 74.0 26
34 Jinichiro Kozuma 74.4 6
35 Chase Koepka 75.1 23
36 Yuki Inamori 75.7 11
37 Sihwan Kim 76.0 11
38 Jed Morgan 76.1 49
39 Itthipat Buranatanyarat 76.1 44
40 James Piot 76.4 23
41 Travis Smyth 76.4 29
42 Hideto Tanihara 76.7 16
43 Sadom Kaewkanjana 77.1 40
44 Ian Snyman 77.2 29
45 Turk Pettit 77.3 47
46 Blake Windred 77.9 46
47 Eugenio Chacarra 78.2 27
Carlos Ortiz late entry 2
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 210. The average is 161. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Perspectives on the Travelers Championship

June 20, 2022 Thomas Hawley

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the Travelers Championship. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player History
Patrick Cantlay 0.635
Brian Harman 0.610
Jason Day 0.556
Marc Leishman 0.546
Kevin Streelman 0.517
Zach Johnson 0.493
Russell Henley 0.482
Brendan Steele 0.482

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player Rank Rating
Rory McIlroy 2 1521.9
Patrick Cantlay 3 1499.2
Justin Thomas 4 1478.0
Scottie Scheffler 5 1463.7
Xander Schauffele 6 1417.6
Sam Burns 10 1195.0
Jordan Spieth 13 1125.6
Joaquin Niemann 20 1024.1

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player Rank Rating
Jon Rahm 1 1609.6
Will Zalatoris 7 1359.2
Cameron Smith 8 1301.2
Matthew Fitzpatrick 9 1237.8

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Upward change
Brendan Steele 1782.5
Davis Riley 1611.4
Rory McIlroy 1543.5
Denny McCarthy 1517.9
Mito Pereira 1490.7
Patrick Cantlay 1315.1
Xander Schauffele 1265.3
Seamus Power 1212.5

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player Downward change
Keegan Bradley -895.4
Russell Henley -771.2
Kevin Kisner -625.5
Erik van Rooyen -580.5
Harris English -554.4
Maverick McNealy -548.2
Sepp Straka -501.0
Kevin Streelman -476.2

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on the TPC River Highlands course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value Statistic
0.29 Shots gained off the tee
0.14 Shots gained in approach
0.06 Shots gained around the green
0.04 Putts per GIR

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Rory McIlroy 68.02
Justin Thomas 68.15
Joaquin Niemann 68.28
Luke List 68.35
Xander Schauffele 68.39
Mito Pereira 68.42
Sungjae Im 68.50
Jordan Spieth 68.51

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit Player
Martin Trainer 70.9
Chesson Hadley 70.9
Richy Werenski 70.7
Joshua Creel 70.7
Kelly Kraft 70.6
Austin Cook 70.5
Ben Kohles 70.5
Brett Drewitt 70.5

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Cromwell CT, the event venue.

Player Residence Distance
Brandon Wu Scarsdale NY 75
Keegan Bradley Woodstock VT 150
Marc Leishman Virginia Beach VA 375
Michael Gligic Kitchener ON 425
Ryan Armour Silver Lake OH 450
Justin Lower Uniontown OH 450
Jason Kokrak Cleveland Oh 475
Cameron Percy Raleigh NC 525
Chesson Hadley Raleigh NC 525

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic Correlation to results
Top of the heap 0.328
I love this place 0.177
Ooh, that’s hot 0.151
Location, location, location 0.032

Travelers Championship

June 20, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,
Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Patrick Cantlay 5.1 13
2 Rory McIlroy 5.9 19
3 Xander Schauffele 16.5 1
4 Scottie Scheffler 18.3 13
5 Justin Thomas 21.0 DNP
6 Sam Burns 23.7 90
7 Mito Pereira 30.0 73
8 Seamus Power 32.3 25
9 Davis Riley 33.1 64
10 Jordan Spieth 33.4 101
11 Joaquin Niemann 34.5 127
12 Brendan Steele 34.7 25
13 Brian Harman 35.0 8
14 Sungjae Im 38.0 DNP
15 Tony Finau 38.9 13
16 Aaron Wise 39.5 101
17 Denny McCarthy 42.3 101
18 Jason Day 44.9 141
19 Keith Mitchell 45.1 6
20 Harold Varner 45.9 43
21 Tommy Fleetwood 46.9 46
22 Brooks Koepka 47.5 DNP
23 Russell Henley 48.6 DNP
24 Marc Leishman 49.2 90
25 Cameron Tringale 49.3 73
26 Keegan Bradley 50.8 19
27 Webb Simpson 50.8 13
28 Brendon Todd 52.8 73
29 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 53.8 135
30 Si Woo Kim 54.0 73
31 Beau Hossler 54.9 73
32 Jason Kokrak 55.7 DNP
33 Kevin Kisner 56.3 6
34 Joel Dahmen 56.4 69
35 Kevin Streelman 56.5 25
36 Mac Hughes 56.6 25
37 Chez Reavie 56.6 8
38 Tom Hoge 56.6 146
39 Ryan Palmer 57.3 90
40 Aaron Rai 58.5 40
41 Cameron Davis 58.6 56
42 Anirban Lahiri 58.6 127
43 Maverick McNealy 58.7 118
44 Sahith Theegala 58.8 2
45 James Hahn 59.6 146
46 Harris English 59.7 19
47 Charles Howell 59.9 35
48 David Lipsky 60.2 90
49 KH Lee 60.3 19
50 CT Pan 60.4 101
51 Lanto Griffin 60.4 101
52 Adam Schenk 60.4 90
53 Russell Knox 60.6 135
54 Matthew NeSmith 60.6 19
55 Rickie Fowler 60.7 127
56 Adam Long 61.0 25
57 Erik van Rooyen 61.3 DNP
58 Troy Merritt 61.3 73
59 Andrew Putnam 61.4 46
60 Stewart Cink 61.5 53
61 Scott Stallings 61.6 8
62 Zach Johnson 61.7 135
63 Jhonattan Vegas 61.8 135
64 Luke List 61.9 19
65 Emiliano Grillo 62.0 101
66 Sepp Straka 62.0 127
67 Garrick Higgo 62.1 90
68 Patrick Rodgers 62.3 DNP
69 Alex Smalley 62.5 127
70 Lucas Glover 62.7 70
71 JT Poston 62.8 2
72 Taylor Moore 62.9 56
73 John Huh 63.1 13
74 Nick Hardy 63.2 8
75 Charley Hoffman 63.3 90
76 Doug Ghim 63.5 101
77 Austin Smotherman 63.8 101
78 Matthew Wolff 64.1 40
79 Adam Svensson 64.4 25
80 Wyndham Clark 64.5 35
81 Peter Malnati 64.7 64
82 Danny Lee 64.9 WD
83 Chad Ramey 64.9 118
84 Patton Kizzire 65.0 64
85 Hank Lebioda 65.1 56
86 Dylan Frittelli 65.4 141
87 Tyler Duncan 65.4 46
88 Doc Redman 65.4 73
89 Hayden Buckley 65.5 43
90 Matt Wallace 65.7 46
91 Rory Sabbatini 65.8 90
92 Kevin Tway 65.9 67
93 JJ Spaun 65.9 135
94 Nate Lashley 66.0 25
95 Scott Piercy 66.3 118
96 Danny Willett 66.5 73
97 Mark Hubbard 66.6 46
98 Stephan Jaeger 66.8 73
99 Ryan Armour 67.0 25
100 Cameron Champ 67.1 143
101 Robert Streb 67.6 35
102 Sam Ryder 67.6 35
103 Lee Hodges 67.9 25
104 Martin Laird 67.9 13
105 Justin Lower 68.1 118
106 Vincent Whaley 68.1 73
107 Brice Garnett 68.1 73
108 Kelly Kraft 68.2 56
109 Carlos Ortiz 68.2 153
110 Brandt Snedeker 68.8 101
111 Brian Stuard 69.3 90
112 Harry Higgs 69.3 70
113 Matthias Schwab 69.4 53
114 Chase Seiffert 70.4 DNP
115 Kramer Hickok 70.4 73
116 Trey Mullinax 70.5 118
117 Callum Tarren 70.9 73
118 Joseph Bramlett 71.2 56
119 Richy Werenski 71.2 153
120 Brandon Wu 71.3 135
121 Henrik Norlander 71.4 101
122 Greyson Sigg 71.8 73
123 Dylan Wu 71.8 127
124 Roger Sloan 71.9 73
125 Satoshi Kodaira 72.1 101
126 Michael Gligic 72.2 40
127 Andrew Novak 72.3 46
128 Vaughn Taylor 72.3 DNP
129 Andrew Landry 72.4 101
130 Luke Donald 72.4 56
131 Austin Cook 72.8 63
132 Martin Trainer 73.0 151
133 Cameron Percy 73.2 DNP
134 Camilo Villegas 73.2 DNP
135 Brandon Hagy 73.4 143
136 Paul Barjon 73.4 53
137 Nick Watney 73.7 146
138 Bill Haas 73.8 25
139 Jim Herman 73.9 101
140 Max McGreevy 73.9 146
141 Sung Kang 74.4 146
142 Scott Gutschewski 74.6 90
143 Ben Kohles 74.6 127
144 Chesson Hadley 74.7 5
145 Curtis Thompson 74.7 101
146 David Skinns 74.9 73
147 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 75.0 118
148 Dawie van der Walt 75.2 118
149 Ryan Brehm 75.3 118
150 Jared Wolfe 75.3 118
151 Seth Reeves 75.6 152
152 Jonas Blixt 75.6 56
153 Christopher Gotterup 75.9 35
154 William McGirt 76.4 8
155 Joshua Creel 77.2 101
156 Brett Drewitt 77.2 101
157 JJ Henry 78.2 73
158 Adam D’Amario 78.4 155
159 Cole Hammer 78.4 127
160 Morgan Hoffmann 78.4 68
161 Benjamin James 78.4 101
162 Michael Thorbjornsen 78.4 4
163 Alternates 78.4 DNP
Conrad Shindler late entry 44
Benjamin Silverman late entry 48
Patrick Flavin late entry 94
Bo Hoag late entry 143
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 105. The average is 163. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

BMW International Open

June 20, 2022 Thomas Hawley ,
Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel
Pick Player Finish Estimate Actual Finish
1 Billy Horschel 46.5 26
2 Louis Oosthuizen 51.5 8
3 Sergio Garcia 51.7 48
4 Martin Kaymer 56.5 36
5 Thomas Pieters 58.9 2
6 Bernd Wiesberger 62.5 61
7 Oliver Bekker 63.8 98
8 Ryan Fox 65.4 3
9 Robert MacIntyre 65.7 69
10 Victor Perez 66.0 53
11 Pablo Larrazabal 66.3 5
12 Jordan Smith 66.7 8
13 Edoardo Molinari 67.5 21
14 Adrian Otaegui 67.5 58
15 Laurie Canter 67.8 32
16 Rasmus Hojgaard 69.0 36
17 Mikko Korhonen 69.3 26
18 Thorbjorn Olesen 69.3 WD
19 Richard Mansell 69.4 63
20 Andy Sullivan 69.6 98
21 Marcel Schneider 69.6 15
22 Thomas Detry 69.9 15
23 Hurly Long 69.9 36
24 Victor Dubuisson 70.0 DNP
25 Justin Walters 70.1 134
26 Romain Langasque 70.6 5
27 Takumi Kanaya 70.8 98
28 Yannik Paul 70.9 32
29 Haotong Li 71.1 1
30 Jorge Campillo 71.1 15
31 Masahiro Kawamura 71.1 89
32 Marcus Armitage 71.2 DNP
33 Nacho Elvira 71.2 61
34 Julien Brun 71.3 89
35 Fabrizio Zanotti 71.4 32
36 Richie Ramsay 71.7 13
37 Wade Ormsby 72.0 67
38 Niklas Norgaard Moller 72.1 53
39 Thriston Lawrence 72.1 36
40 Wil Besseling 72.1 26
41 Dean Burmester 72.2 21
42 Maximilian Kieffer 72.3 26
43 Joakim Lagergren 72.4 57
44 Antoine Rozner 72.7 15
45 Ashun Wu 72.7 98
46 Kalle Samooja 72.9 21
47 David Horsey 73.1 81
48 Brandon Stone 73.2 15
49 Matthieu Pavon 73.2 127
50 George Coetzee 73.4 36
51 Tapio Pulkkanen 73.4 107
52 Marcel Siem 73.5 53
53 Angel Hidalgo 73.6 98
54 Ross Fisher 73.6 69
55 Jazz Janewattananond 73.7 118
56 Connor Syme 73.7 69
57 Matthew Jordan 73.7 134
58 Ashley Chesters 73.8 118
59 Sean Crocker 73.8 36
60 Lukas Nemecz 73.8 13
61 Shubhankar Sharma 74.0 DNP
62 Jeff Winther 74.0 107
63 Chase Hanna 74.1 98
64 Jamie Donaldson 74.1 63
65 Matthias Schmid 74.4 81
66 Nicolai von Dellingshausen 74.4 5
67 Kristoffer Broberg 74.4 48
68 James Morrison 74.4 66
69 Jacques Kruyswijk 74.4 48
70 Daniel van Tonder 74.5 36
71 Dale Whitnell 74.6 36
72 Rafa Cabrera Bello 74.6 69
73 Francesco Laporta 74.8 36
74 Frederic LaCroix 74.9 10
75 Jack Senior 74.9 89
76 Wilco Nienaber 74.9 21
77 Darren Fichardt 75.0 81
78 Craig Howie 75.0 67
79 Santiago Tarrio Ben 75.1 81
80 Ewen Ferguson 75.3 21
81 Eddie Pepperell 75.3 81
82 Niall Kearney 75.3 15
83 Ricardo Gouveia 75.4 127
84 Aaron Cockerill 75.4 89
85 Richard Sterne 75.5 134
86 Marcus Kinhult 75.5 98
87 Andres Romero 75.5 69
88 Matthew Southgate 75.6 98
89 Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 75.6 26
90 Kazuki Higa 76.0 10
91 Scott Hend 76.0 149
92 Sami Valimaki 76.2 4
93 Paul Waring 76.2 26
94 Richard McEvoy 76.3 146
95 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 76.3 32
96 Max Schmitt 76.3 143
97 Darius van Driel 76.3 10
98 Espen Kofstad 76.4 48
99 Daan Huizing 76.5 36
100 Nino Bertasio 76.6 89
101 Lorenzo Gagli 76.6 139
102 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 76.6 130
103 Zander Lombard 76.7 36
104 Ricardo Santos 76.7 69
105 Andrea Pavan 76.8 107
106 Niklas Lemke 76.9 WD
107 Oliver Farr 76.9 107
108 Pep Angles 76.9 107
109 Oliver Wilson 77.0 69
110 Andrew Wilson 77.0 WD
111 Benjamin Hebert 77.2 107
112 Steven Brown 77.2 58
113 Stephen Gallacher 77.2 69
114 Alvaro Quiros 77.2 98
115 Garrick Porteous 77.3 48
116 Soren Kjeldsen 77.3 81
117 Renato Paratore 77.3 143
118 Marc Warren 77.3 81
119 Julian Suri 77.4 130
120 Jack Singh Brar 77.5 139
121 Maverick Antcliff 77.5 WD
122 David Drysdale 77.6 WD
123 Daniel Hillier 77.6 DNP
124 Zach Murray 77.6 81
125 Sebastian Heisele 77.6 118
126 Lucas Bjerregaard 77.7 69
127 Alejandro Canizares 77.8 107
128 Dave Coupland 77.8 127
129 Thomas Bjorn 77.8 118
130 Toby Tree 77.8 118
131 Joel Sjoholm 77.9 89
132 Hugo Leon 78.0 69
133 Raphael Jacquelin 78.0 118
134 Ross McGowan 78.0 DNP
135 Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 78.0 107
136 Joel Stalter 78.1 134
137 Chris Paisley 78.3 118
138 Kristian Krogh Johannessen 78.3 DNP
139 Elvis Smylie 78.3 107
140 Ugo Coussaud 78.4 DNP
141 Laird Shepherd 78.4 69
142 Anton Albers 78.4 139
143 Jonas Baumgartner 78.4 118
144 Jannik De Bruyn 78.4 89
145 Timo Vahlenkamp 78.4 36
146 Michael Hirmer 78.4 DNP
147 Maximilian Herrmann 78.4 143
148 Philipp Mejow 78.4 107
149 Hui-lin Zhang 78.4 130
150 Robin Roussel 78.4 150
151 Jonathan Caldwell 78.7 134
152 David Howell 79.0 89
153 Haydn Porteous 79.1 130
154 Chris Wood 79.1 89
155 Rikard Karlberg 79.2 58
156 Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 79.2 107
157 Oliver Fisher 79.3 118
158 Carlos Pigem 79.3 139
159 Cormac Sharvin 79.6 146
160 Matt Ford 79.6 69
161 Jesper Kennegard 79.9 DNP
Louis de Jager late entry 53
Rafa Echenique late entry 65
Max Rottluff late entry 147
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 97. The average is 163. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.