A Look at Golf – Page 41 – Alookatgolf provides information for the professional golf fan, fantasy golf enthusiast, and daily fantasy sports golf participant. We provide true odds on U.S. and European professional golf events and accurate rankings of U.S. and European pro golfers.

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June 6, 2022 Thomas Hawley Euro Events, Picks

Alex Noren

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Alex Noren	52.0	14
2	Jason Scrivener	69.4	3
3	Alexander Bjork	69.5	50
4	Marcel Schneider	69.6	DNP
5	Edoardo Molinari	69.8	22
6	Julien Brun	70.3	43
7	Victor Dubuisson	70.5	DNP
8	Henrik Stenson	70.8	1
9	Thriston Lawrence	71.1	43
10	Romain Langasque	71.4	6
11	Chase Hanna	71.5	43
12	Justin Walters	71.7	18
13	Sebastian Soderberg	72.1	61
14	Wil Besseling	72.1	DNP
15	Johannes Veerman	72.3	18
16	Marcel Siem	72.5	56
17	Tapio Pulkkanen	72.6	50
18	Niklas Norgaard Moller	72.8	9
19	Shubhankar Sharma	73.0	64
20	John Catlin	73.4	22
21	Julien Guerrier	73.5	61
22	Joakim Lagergren	73.6	26
23	Matthieu Pavon	73.7	6
24	Jazz Janewattananond	73.8	18
25	Francesco Laporta	73.9	70
26	Darren Fichardt	74.0	28
27	Jacques Kruyswijk	74.1	12
28	David Horsey	74.2	28
29	Maximilian Kieffer	74.4	6
30	Dale Whitnell	74.4	27
31	Jack Senior	74.5	28
32	Kristoffer Broberg	74.6	22
33	Marcus Kinhult	74.9	38
34	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	74.9	64
35	Craig Howie	75.0	14
36	Daniel Gavins	75.0	14
37	Sami Valimaki	75.1	70
38	Ricardo Gouveia	75.1	28
39	David Law	75.1	WD
40	Santiago Tarrio Ben	75.2	3
41	Nacho Elvira	75.2	18
42	Gavin Green	75.3	64
43	Richard Sterne	75.4	43
44	Matthew Southgate	75.4	14
45	Daan Huizing	75.5	50
46	Nicolai von Dellingshausen	75.6	50
47	Espen Kofstad	75.6	41
48	Robert Rock	75.7	43
49	Ashley Chesters	75.8	28
50	Niklas Lemke	75.8	38
51	Renato Paratore	75.9	61
52	Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez	75.9	9
53	Benjamin Hebert	76.0	64
54	Ricardo Santos	76.2	50
55	Scott Hend	76.2	74
56	Marc Warren	76.3	2
57	Andrea Pavan	76.3	74
58	Oliver Wilson	76.3	56
59	Mike Lorenzo-Vera	76.4	12
60	Lorenzo Gagli	76.4	70
61	Paul Waring	76.5	9
62	Darius van Driel	76.5	3
63	Andrew Wilson	76.6	22
64	Zander Lombard	76.6	28
65	Alejandro Canizares	76.7	50
66	Chris Paisley	76.8	56
67	Richard McEvoy	76.8	28
68	Maverick Antcliff	76.9	43
69	Steven Brown	77.0	43
70	Ross McGowan	77.1	64
71	Robin Roussel	77.2	64
72	Hugo Leon	77.4	56
73	Jonathan Caldwell	77.4	28
74	Julian Suri	77.5	40
75	Cormac Sharvin	77.7	DNP
76	Joel Sjoholm	77.7	28
77	Rikard Karlberg	77.8	56
78	Joel Stalter	77.9	DNP
79	Oliver Fisher	77.9	DNP
80	Zach Murray	78.0	28
81	David Howell	78.1	DNP
82	Peter Hanson	78.1	70
83	Leo Johannson	78.4	42
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 113. The average is 127. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Finish Estimate reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Finish Estimate and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (June 5, 2022)

June 5, 2022 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Jon Rahm opens a bit of a lead at no. 1 with a top-10 finish in the Memorial.

#	Thru June 5, 2022	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Jon Rahm	48	1557	1
2	Justin Thomas	51	1473	2
3	Patrick Cantlay	44	1447	6
4	Cameron Smith	47	1383	7
5	Rory McIlroy	47	1379	4
6	Xander Schauffele	50	1373	5
7	Scottie Scheffler	58	1370	3
8	Will Zalatoris	48	1248	9
9	Cameron Young	26	1198	8
10	Daniel Berger	44	1162	17
11	Sam Burns	53	1140	11
12	Viktor Hovland	58	1138	10
13	Jordan Spieth	50	1121	16
14	Shane Lowry	55	1119	13
15	Dustin Johnson	43	1098	14
16	Matthew Fitzpatrick	53	1095	12
17	Corey Conners	58	1064	19
18	Paul Casey	44	1050	18
19	Collin Morikawa	54	1049	15
20	Joaquin Niemann	57	1044	22
21	Mito Pereira	32	1041	21
22	Max Homa	55	1033	23
23	Billy Horschel	56	1004	28
24	Sungjae Im	66	994	25
25	Tyrrell Hatton	52	976	20
26	Louis Oosthuizen	41	930	26
27	Hideki Matsuyama	52	907	24
28	Russell Henley	50	880	29
29	Seamus Power	42	880	27
30	Davis Riley	34	880	41
31	Talor Gooch	58	876	30
32	Kevin Na	50	864	31
33	Brooks Koepka	43	863	32
34	Harold Varner	55	855	33
35	Tony Finau	58	852	34
36	Abraham Ancer	59	840	35
37	Aaron Wise	48	837	48
38	Tommy Fleetwood	56	834	36
39	Keegan Bradley	59	819	39
40	Webb Simpson	43	816	40
41	Alex Noren	53	801	37
42	Brian Harman	57	801	44
43	Adam Scott	38	791	38
44	Chris Kirk	51	752	42
45	Brendan Steele	49	750	53
46	Cameron Tringale	54	748	45
47	Sergio Garcia	48	741	46
48	Keith Mitchell	55	741	51
49	Jason Kokrak	54	734	47
50	Bryson DeChambeau	41	726	43
51	Justin Rose	43	707	50
52	Si Woo Kim	62	706	58
53	Adam Hadwin	56	697	59
54	Patrick Reed	60	696	49
55	Bubba Watson	44	671	54
56	Sebastian Munoz	62	658	56
57	Harris English	44	658	52
58	Kevin Kisner	54	651	57
59	Matt Kuchar	50	651	55
60	Maverick McNealy	53	642	61
61	Marc Leishman	53	635	60
62	Tom Hoge	68	606	62
63	Jason Day	45	604	65
64	Erik van Rooyen	53	600	63
65	Ryan Palmer	52	578	64
66	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	53	576	67
67	Gary Woodland	51	571	66
68	Denny McCarthy	61	567	87
69	Sepp Straka	65	563	68
70	Taylor Pendrith	26	556	70
71	Taylor Montgomery	8	549	72
72	Kevin Streelman	59	548	69
73	Sahith Theegala	37	548	107
74	Ian Poulter	56	544	73
75	Lanto Griffin	60	542	71
76	Brendon Todd	58	542	74
77	Cameron Davis	51	531	75
78	Mac Hughes	57	531	78
79	Lucas Herbert	42	528	76
80	Jhonattan Vegas	52	525	80
81	Charles Howell	43	517	93
82	David Lipsky	35	512	81
83	Troy Merritt	63	511	79
84	Taylor Moore	24	504	77
85	Stewart Cink	49	482	82
86	KH Lee	61	480	86
87	Matthew NeSmith	59	480	90
88	Pat Perez	56	478	95
89	Anirban Lahiri	43	477	83
90	CT Pan	54	473	88
91	Patton Kizzire	56	472	85
92	Francesco Molinari	33	471	100
93	Matthew Wolff	47	469	84
94	Matt Jones	59	464	89
95	Luke List	61	459	98
96	Charl Schwartzel	52	455	96
97	Scott Stallings	58	447	91
98	Russell Knox	62	446	92
99	Joel Dahmen	55	444	102
100	Robert MacIntyre	51	442	94
101	Aaron Rai	55	441	109
102	Bud Cauley	9	438	104
103	Lee Westwood	47	435	99
104	Doug Ghim	51	433	97
105	Thomas Pieters	41	433	101
106	Beau Hossler	58	431	110
107	Lucas Glover	58	419	103
108	Charley Hoffman	53	415	105
109	Adam Long	61	411	108
110	Rickie Fowler	47	410	106
111	Branden Grace	56	408	112
112	Dylan Frittelli	60	406	111
113	JT Poston	59	405	113
114	Zach Johnson	49	383	116
115	Chez Reavie	59	381	117
116	Cameron Champ	48	375	114
117	Emiliano Grillo	60	374	121
118	Andrew Putnam	60	369	118
119	Alex Smalley	29	368	115
120	JJ Spaun	57	368	119
121	Steve Stricker	16	357	122
122	Nate Lashley	53	355	120
123	Rory Sabbatini	50	349	125
124	John Huh	40	348	124
125	Adam Schenk	66	347	137
126	Nick Taylor	55	342	126
127	Bernd Wiesberger	50	342	128
128	Carlos Ortiz	55	341	123
129	James Hahn	45	341	129
130	Michael Thompson	52	339	130
131	Adri Arnaus	50	336	133
132	Sam Ryder	62	333	127
133	Austin Smotherman	22	330	134
134	Doc Redman	56	329	132
135	Oliver Bekker	19	328	136
136	Peter Malnati	61	328	131
137	Adam Svensson	29	322	140
138	Harry Higgs	59	321	139
139	Matt Wallace	60	320	142
140	Lee Hodges	31	319	141
141	Martin Laird	42	318	145
142	Richard Bland	49	313	143
143	Chad Ramey	28	312	135
144	Danny Willett	56	311	138
145	Sam Horsfield	40	311	144
146	Victor Perez	47	307	156
147	Matthias Schwab	53	304	147
148	Tyler Duncan	61	302	148
149	Wyndham Clark	57	301	155
150	Scott Piercy	52	300	151
151	Phil Mickelson	35	300	152
152	Hudson Swafford	55	296	146
153	Mark Hubbard	58	293	153
154	Robert Streb	55	292	150
155	Padraig Harrington	37	292	154
156	Kurt Kitayama	46	291	149
157	John Augenstein	12	288	158
158	Brandt Snedeker	56	281	157
159	Ryan Fox	42	279	162
160	Stephan Jaeger	33	278	161
161	Garrick Higgo	54	278	188
162	Hennie du Plessis	17	274	163
163	Hank Lebioda	50	273	164
164	Patrick Rodgers	66	271	160
165	Min Woo Lee	43	270	159
166	Brian Stuard	69	269	166
167	Joohyung Kim	14	267	168
168	Rasmus Hojgaard	47	265	165
169	Vincent Whaley	55	259	171
170	Ryan Armour	51	258	170
171	Adrian Meronk	51	256	167
172	Justin Harding	53	255	174
173	Jordan Smith	53	255	178
174	Kramer Hickok	51	255	169
175	Jason Scrivener	43	249	176
176	Pablo Larrazabal	45	249	172
177	Takumi Kanaya	34	249	173
178	Brice Garnett	58	248	177
179	Trey Mullinax	23	241	181
180	Hayden Buckley	28	240	182
181	Austin Eckroat	11	239	179
182	Satoshi Kodaira	43	238	183
183	Justin Lower	22	238	175
184	Dylan Wu	24	235	185
185	Roger Sloan	54	232	186
186	Danny Lee	53	231	180
187	Greyson Sigg	34	229	187
188	Brandon Wu	30	227	184
189	Thomas Detry	51	226	189
190	Laurie Canter	45	225	190
191	Henrik Norlander	56	224	191
192	Kevin Chappell	28	223	194
193	Alexander Bjork	44	222	196
194	Sean O’Hair	32	219	195
195	Julien Brun	16	218	193
196	Marcus Armitage	54	216	192
197	Graeme McDowell	49	215	201
198	Andrew Novak	24	215	199
199	Yannik Paul	13	215	216
200	Mikko Korhonen	39	215	197
201	Dean Burmester	51	214	200
202	Byeong Hun An	42	214	198
203	Richy Werenski	58	213	202
204	Andrew Landry	42	211	203
205	Kyle Stanley	54	211	204
206	Chase Seiffert	47	209	205
207	Thriston Lawrence	21	208	220
208	Victor Dubuisson	24	208	207
209	Andrew Johnston	24	205	208
210	Tyler McCumber	42	204	209
211	Fabrizio Zanotti	34	204	210
212	Richard Mansell	27	204	241
213	Hurly Long	26	203	206
214	Henrik Stenson	47	203	211
215	Jonathan Byrd	32	202	212
216	Haotong Li	40	201	221
217	Justin Suh	16	197	213
218	Wesley Bryan	27	196	215
219	Antoine Rozner	52	195	214
220	Martin Kaymer	35	194	219
221	Edoardo Molinari	47	192	234
222	Guido Migliozzi	51	191	218
223	Luke Donald	50	190	217
224	Jim Furyk	15	185	223
225	Cameron Percy	44	184	222
226	Kalle Samooja	47	181	256
227	Johannes Veerman	46	180	246
228	Adrian Otaegui	55	180	231
229	Romain Langasque	50	179	224
230	Scott Jamieson	47	179	225
231	Marcel Siem	30	178	247
232	Joseph Bramlett	57	176	229
233	Ashun Wu	39	175	226
234	Tom Lewis	45	173	230
235	Bo Hoag	55	172	227
236	Brandon Hagy	55	172	228
237	Masahiro Kawamura	58	171	260
238	Vaughn Taylor	48	168	236
239	Nicolai Hojgaard	49	167	232
240	Calum Hill	41	167	239
241	Wade Ormsby	38	167	237
242	Richie Ramsay	51	162	235
243	Shaun Norris	29	162	248
244	Davis Thompson	11	162	249
245	Nick Watney	51	161	242
246	Shubhankar Sharma	56	161	240
247	Sean Crocker	53	160	245
248	Ryan Moore	32	160	233
249	Andy Sullivan	50	160	238
250	Matthew Jordan	52	159	244
251	Camilo Villegas	50	159	252
252	Max McGreevy	25	159	251
253	Rafa Cabrera Bello	58	158	243
254	George Coetzee	39	157	253
255	Jimmy Walker	45	157	254
256	Wil Besseling	51	157	291
257	Robert Garrigus	18	156	255
258	Thorbjorn Olesen	39	155	250
259	Brandon Stone	47	154	287
260	Tiger Woods	9	152	257
261	Nick Hardy	21	150	262
262	Matthieu Pavon	51	150	258
263	Marcel Schneider	37	147	313
264	Lukas Nemecz	17	147	272
265	Jamie Donaldson	47	146	261
266	Kevin Tway	54	145	263
267	Ben Martin	37	144	265
268	Chase Hanna	25	144	259
269	Trevor Fisher	8	144	264
270	David Lingmerth	23	144	290
271	Tapio Pulkkanen	50	143	269
272	Jim Herman	44	142	268
273	Bronson Burgoon	48	142	270
274	Justin Walters	54	141	292
275	Joachim B Hansen	54	138	267
276	Ross Fisher	50	138	279
277	Niklas Norgaard Moller	17	138	353
278	Michael Gligic	53	137	273
279	Chan Kim	27	137	266
280	Angel Hidalgo	9	137	277
281	Robby Shelton	43	136	275
282	Callum Shinkwin	46	134	271
283	Joakim Lagergren	46	134	324
284	Martin Trainer	57	134	281
285	Bo Van Pelt	47	133	288
286	Francesco Laporta	52	133	276
287	Chesson Hadley	54	132	283
288	Bryson Nimmer	8	132	285
289	Paul Barjon	29	131	289
290	Daniel van Tonder	40	131	278
291	Brad Kennedy	13	130	280
292	Connor Syme	52	130	284
293	JC Ritchie	25	129	274
294	Matthias Schmid	27	129	297
295	Aaron Baddeley	39	129	295
296	Jeff Winther	45	128	282
297	David Horsey	50	127	286
298	Bill Haas	49	127	296
299	Grant Forrest	52	126	293
300	Callum Tarren	22	125	301
301	Ben Kohles	22	124	300
302	Wilco Nienaber	44	124	298
303	Ryosuke Kinoshita	21	124	294
304	Curtis Thompson	26	124	299
305	Rikuya Hoshino	26	123	302
306	Jazz Janewattananond	51	123	303
307	Scott Gutschewski	22	123	304
308	Sung Kang	62	121	305
309	Julien Guerrier	50	119	342
310	Shugo Imahira	21	118	306
311	Rob Oppenheim	36	118	307
312	Kelly Kraft	39	116	310
313	Will Gordon	39	116	308
314	Jack Senior	49	115	309
315	Seonghyeon Kim	8	115	316
316	John Catlin	51	114	326
317	Darren Fichardt	30	113	322
318	Sebastian Soderberg	50	113	321
319	Jorge Campillo	57	113	312
320	Ryan Brehm	38	111	311
321	Jason Dufner	53	110	318
322	Kristoffer Broberg	33	110	315
323	Ewen Ferguson	35	110	314
324	Jacques Kruyswijk	31	109	327
325	Aaron Cockerill	46	109	317
326	Daniel Gavins	34	109	320
327	Keita Nakajima	13	109	325
328	Ben Taylor	26	108	328
329	Maximilian Kieffer	48	107	323
330	Joost Luiten	52	107	329
331	Mark Anderson	29	107	331
332	James Morrison	53	106	330
333	Louis de Jager	31	105	332
334	Craig Howie	25	105	319
335	Alexander Levy	44	105	337
336	Grayson Murray	31	105	338
337	Marcus Kinhult	40	104	333
338	Peter Uihlein	36	104	334
339	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	46	104	344
340	Ockie Strydom	8	103	340
341	MJ Daffue	16	102	336
342	Jacques Blaauw	9	102	339
343	Eddie Pepperell	44	101	335
344	Austin Cook	56	100	343
345	Scott Brown	47	98	346
346	Dawie van der Walt	24	98	347
347	David Skinns	20	97	348
348	Niall Kearney	26	96	341
349	Sami Valimaki	48	96	349
350	Jared Wolfe	23	95	352
351	Alexander Knappe	8	95
352	Keenan Davidse	8	94	354
353	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	15	93	350
354	David Law	53	92	351
355	Frederic LaCroix	16	92	345
356	Seth Reeves	24	92	359
357	Richard Sterne	20	91	361
358	CJ du Plessis	8	91	358
359	Dale Whitnell	53	91	355
360	Ollie Schniederjans	10	91	357
361	Matthew Southgate	51	90	363
362	Michael Gellerman	23	88	362
363	Nacho Elvira	55	87	360
364	Ricardo Gouveia	18	87	356
365	Chris Baker	29	85	366
366	Akshay Bhatia	15	84	367
367	Scott Vincent	32	84	369
368	Adrien Saddier	38	83	370
369	Xinjun Zhang	37	83	364
370	Josh Teater	25	82	372
371	Renato Paratore	53	82	368
372	Hiroshi Iwata	20	81	365
373	Rafael Campos	31	79	376
374	Nicolai von Dellingshausen	35	79	419
375	Santiago Tarrio Ben	25	78	373
376	Oscar Lengden	12	77	378
377	Nino Bertasio	46	77	374
378	Gavin Green	50	77	379
379	Marcus Helligkilde	14	76	381
380	Brian Gay	49	76	377
381	Neil Schietekat	11	76	380
382	Benjamin Hebert	43	76	375
383	Jayden Schaper	14	76	382
384	Scott Harrington	40	76	384
385	Nicolas Colsaerts	32	75	388
386	Bryce Easton	33	75	387
387	Fabian Gomez	37	74	389
388	Espen Kofstad	16	74	400
389	Niklas Lemke	41	73	383
390	Berry Henson	16	73	390
391	Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez	49	73	385
392	Andy Ogletree	10	73	393
393	Chris Stroud	18	72	386
394	Yuto Katsuragawa	11	72	371
395	Jaco Ahlers	12	72	395
396	Tommy Gainey	19	71	399
397	Tomoharu Otsuki	19	71	413
398	Rourke van der Spuy	8	70	398
399	Stephen Gallacher	37	70	391
400	Robert Rock	34	70	394
More \| Less

Ratings are based on a player’s performance over the past two years in a minimum of eight events. The Hawley Rating reflects an average of the strength of field that a player beats, with greater weight for recent results.

Perspectives on the Memorial Tournament

May 30, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Patrick Cantlay	0.725
Jordan Spieth	0.650
Kevin Streelman	0.634
Patrick Reed	0.598
Rickie Fowler	0.586
Xander Schauffele	0.527
Si Woo Kim	0.523
Jason Dufner	0.507

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1506.9
Rory McIlroy	4	1357.3
Xander Schauffele	5	1354.7
Patrick Cantlay	6	1349.4
Cameron Smith	7	1337.9
Cameron Young	8	1258.7
Will Zalatoris	9	1174.0
Viktor Hovland	10	1166.2

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Justin Thomas	2	1475.1
Scottie Scheffler	3	1365.1
Sam Burns	11	1135.6
Dustin Johnson	14	1106.3

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Davis Riley	1814.1
Jordan Spieth	1754.6
Cameron Young	1610.5
Rory McIlroy	1352.7
Shane Lowry	1301.2
Xander Schauffele	1276.5
Mito Pereira	1255.8
Matthew Fitzpatrick	1243.1

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Keegan Bradley	-805.6
Bryson DeChambeau	-757.5
Collin Morikawa	-700.2
Keith Mitchell	-584.0
Sepp Straka	-568.8
Harris English	-532.4
Adam Hadwin	-520.3
Kevin Streelman	-489.8

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Muirfield Village Golf Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.18	Scrambling
0.16	Shots gained in approach
0.09	Shots gained off the tee
0.00	Shots gained putting

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Jon Rahm	71.99
Patrick Cantlay	72.13
Daniel Berger	72.19
Mito Pereira	72.21
Viktor Hovland	72.23
Will Zalatoris	72.24
Collin Morikawa	72.25
Bryson DeChambeau	72.32

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Brandon Wu	73.7
Justin Lower	73.6
Lucas Herbert	73.5
Min Woo Lee	73.4
Brandon Hagy	73.4
Garrick Higgo	73.3
Kevin Tway	73.3
Matthew Wolff	73.3

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Columbus OH, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Jason Day	Columbus Oh	45
Bo Hoag	Columbus Oh	45
Justin Lower	Uniontown OH	100
Ryan Brehm	Mount Pleasant MI	225
Corey Conners	Listowel ON	250
Adam Schenk	Vincennes IN	275
Scott Stallings	Knoxville Ten	325
Peter Malnati	Knoxville Ten	325

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.315
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.145
Location, location, location	0.027

Memorial Tournament presented by Workday

May 30, 2022 Thomas Hawley Picks, U.S. Events

Patrick Cantlay

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Patrick Cantlay	11.8	3
2	Xander Schauffele	18.0	18
3	Rory McIlroy	18.6	18
4	Cameron Young	21.2	60
5	Jon Rahm	24.3	10
6	Jordan Spieth	24.7	18
7	Cameron Smith	28.3	13
8	Shane Lowry	28.5	32
9	Matthew Fitzpatrick	28.6	71
10	Will Zalatoris	33.0	5
11	Mito Pereira	34.3	13
12	Davis Riley	36.3	13
13	Max Homa	36.7	5
14	Corey Conners	37.2	13
15	Sungjae Im	39.2	10
16	Viktor Hovland	39.4	51
17	Joaquin Niemann	41.1	3
18	Hideki Matsuyama	42.0	DQ
19	Daniel Berger	42.7	5
20	Seamus Power	44.7	80
21	Collin Morikawa	44.9	80
22	Billy Horschel	45.0	1
23	Chris Kirk	46.4	53
24	Brendan Steele	47.5	10
25	Aaron Wise	47.9	2
26	Matt Kuchar	48.1	45
27	Adam Scott	49.7	67
28	Abraham Ancer	50.6	32
29	Brian Harman	50.9	18
30	Patrick Reed	50.9	53
31	Cameron Davis	52.0	53
32	Alex Noren	52.2	80
33	Cameron Tringale	52.9	48
34	Tom Hoge	53.2	86
35	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	54.9	DNP
36	Jason Day	55.3	31
37	Keegan Bradley	55.3	37
38	Bryson DeChambeau	55.7	108
39	Ryan Palmer	56.1	118
40	Lanto Griffin	57.1	51
41	Si Woo Kim	57.4	13
42	KH Lee	57.4	53
43	Marc Leishman	57.5	86
44	Stewart Cink	57.9	104
45	Keith Mitchell	58.1	18
46	Harris English	58.2	111
47	Gary Woodland	58.9	86
48	Jhonattan Vegas	58.9	37
49	Rickie Fowler	59.1	64
50	Erik van Rooyen	59.2	80
51	Adam Hadwin	59.3	18
52	David Lipsky	59.3	37
53	Anirban Lahiri	59.3	71
54	Cameron Champ	59.4	86
55	Scott Stallings	59.9	104
56	Matthew NeSmith	60.4	37
57	Lucas Herbert	60.5	48
58	Denny McCarthy	60.8	5
59	CT Pan	60.9	53
60	Kevin Streelman	61.1	86
61	Troy Merritt	61.8	53
62	Beau Hossler	61.9	32
63	Pat Perez	62.1	26
64	Mac Hughes	62.2	37
65	Russell Knox	62.3	115
66	Charles Howell	62.5	18
67	Kurt Kitayama	62.7	71
68	Sepp Straka	63.0	45
69	Taylor Moore	63.2	104
70	Nate Lashley	63.4	86
71	Lucas Glover	63.5	60
72	Matt Jones	63.6	86
73	Alex Smalley	63.6	98
74	Peter Malnati	63.7	95
75	Luke List	64.0	26
76	Adam Long	64.4	98
77	Matthew Wolff	64.4	80
78	Patrick Rodgers	64.8	86
79	Francesco Molinari	64.9	26
80	Patton Kizzire	65.3	113
81	Aaron Rai	65.7	26
82	JT Poston	65.8	37
83	Doug Ghim	65.9	60
84	Chad Ramey	66.0	WD
85	Sahith Theegala	66.0	5
86	Joel Dahmen	66.2	32
87	Adam Schenk	66.3	26
88	Dylan Frittelli	66.4	DNP
89	Andrew Putnam	66.7	98
90	Sam Ryder	66.7	71
91	Doc Redman	66.9	DNP
92	Charley Hoffman	66.9	71
93	Emiliano Grillo	67.1	32
94	Danny Willett	67.1	104
95	Justin Lower	67.9	95
96	Hudson Swafford	68.1	98
97	Carlos Ortiz	68.2	64
98	Hank Lebioda	68.2	DNP
99	Min Woo Lee	69.5	86
100	Martin Laird	69.5	37
101	Wyndham Clark	69.6	37
102	Adam Svensson	69.7	45
103	Harry Higgs	70.2	DNP
104	Garrick Higgo	70.3	18
105	Brandon Wu	70.4	69
106	Robert Streb	70.8	71
107	Brandt Snedeker	71.1	60
108	Brian Stuard	71.3	DNP
109	Danny Lee	71.3	71
110	Luke Donald	71.5	71
111	Kramer Hickok	71.8	64
112	Roger Sloan	72.6	DNP
113	Henrik Norlander	72.8	DNP
114	Ryan Moore	72.9	70
115	David Lingmerth	73.0	48
116	Bo Hoag	74.0	98
117	Brandon Hagy	74.2	112
118	Rafa Cabrera Bello	74.5	80
119	Nick Watney	74.6	117
120	Chan Kim	74.6	67
121	Camilo Villegas	74.7	53
122	Ryan Brehm	75.1	113
123	Kevin Tway	75.3	DNP
124	Jason Dufner	75.5	95
125	John Pak	77.0	108
126	William McGirt	77.5	71
127	Jed Morgan	77.7	115
128	Curtis Luck	78.1	98
129	James Piot	78.4	108
130	Laird Shepherd	78.4	DNP
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 87. The average is 129. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Porsche European Open

May 30, 2022 Thomas Hawley Euro Events, Picks

Tommy Fleetwood

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Tommy Fleetwood	50.3	10
2	Robert MacIntyre	65.2	106
3	Adri Arnaus	66.6	16
4	Thomas Detry	66.8	29
5	Jordan Smith	67.0	10
6	Adrian Meronk	67.3	74
7	Pablo Larrazabal	68.7	99
8	Richie Ramsay	69.8	WD
9	Alexander Bjork	69.8	25
10	Rasmus Hojgaard	69.9	51
11	Victor Perez	70.1	3
12	Jason Scrivener	70.2	25
13	Ashley Chesters	70.2	90
14	Matt Wallace	70.5	18
15	Mikko Korhonen	70.5	40
16	Hurly Long	70.8	47
17	Marcus Armitage	70.9	64
18	Sean Crocker	71.1	51
19	Richard Mansell	71.3	3
20	Marcel Schneider	71.4	5
21	Yannik Paul	71.6	18
22	Jorge Campillo	71.8	125
23	Edoardo Molinari	72.2	5
24	Ashun Wu	72.3	51
25	Thorbjorn Olesen	72.3	51
26	Haotong Li	72.5	18
27	Martin Kaymer	72.7	DNP
28	Adrian Otaegui	72.8	18
29	Julien Brun	72.8	34
30	JC Ritchie	72.9	113
31	Henrik Stenson	73.2	34
32	Scott Jamieson	73.3	34
33	Romain Langasque	73.3	40
34	Richard Sterne	73.4	40
35	Thriston Lawrence	73.4	18
36	Jeff Winther	73.4	63
37	Justin Walters	73.4	16
38	Connor Syme	73.5	51
39	Darren Fichardt	73.5	40
40	Chase Hanna	73.6	113
41	Nicolai Hojgaard	73.9	WD
42	Maximilian Kieffer	73.9	125
43	Marcel Siem	74.0	18
44	Jack Senior	74.0	51
45	Callum Shinkwin	74.2	WD
46	Sebastian Soderberg	74.2	DNP
47	Johannes Veerman	74.3	10
48	Lukas Nemecz	74.3	29
49	Guido Migliozzi	74.4	132
50	Antoine Rozner	74.5	51
51	Matthieu Pavon	74.6	47
52	Niall Kearney	74.7	90
53	Ross Fisher	74.7	29
54	Eddie Pepperell	74.7	99
55	Nacho Elvira	74.8	74
56	Angel Hidalgo	74.9	DNP
57	Matthew Jordan	75.0	125
58	Masahiro Kawamura	75.1	5
59	Shubhankar Sharma	75.1	132
60	Aaron Cockerill	75.1	70
61	Wil Besseling	75.2	2
62	Andy Sullivan	75.2	74
63	Richard McEvoy	75.2	74
64	David Horsey	75.2	106
65	Jamie Donaldson	75.3	70
66	Daniel van Tonder	75.3	74
67	Wilco Nienaber	75.4	40
68	Stephen Gallacher	75.5	137
69	Craig Howie	75.6	119
70	Kalle Samooja	75.7	1
71	Grant Forrest	75.7	WD
72	Niklas Lemke	75.8	90
73	Kristoffer Broberg	75.8	64
74	Benjamin Hebert	75.9	90
75	Joachim B Hansen	75.9	74
76	Brandon Stone	76.0	5
77	Frederic LaCroix	76.0	74
78	Zander Lombard	76.1	59
79	Francesco Laporta	76.1	99
80	Matthias Schmid	76.2	34
81	Daniel Gavins	76.3	WD
82	Renato Paratore	76.3	74
83	Marc Warren	76.4	142
84	Max Schmitt	76.4	113
85	Ricardo Gouveia	76.4	70
86	John Catlin	76.4	25
87	Dale Whitnell	76.4	74
88	Alejandro Canizares	76.6	WD
89	Paul Waring	76.6	90
90	Niklas Norgaard Moller	76.6	10
91	Julien Guerrier	76.6	10
92	Joost Luiten	76.7	DNP
93	David Law	76.7	106
94	Matthew Southgate	76.8	34
95	Bernd Ritthammer	76.8	99
96	Garrick Porteous	76.9	74
97	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	76.9	47
98	Joakim Lagergren	77.0	5
99	Alvaro Quiros	77.0	29
100	Ross McGowan	77.1	137
101	Jean-Baptiste Gonnet	77.1	99
102	Dave Coupland	77.1	74
103	Santiago Tarrio Ben	77.2	59
104	Ewen Ferguson	77.2	WD
105	Robin Roussel	77.3	90
106	Raphael Jacquelin	77.3	132
107	Espen Kofstad	77.3	40
108	Jake McLeod	77.3	DNP
109	Lorenzo Gagli	77.4	DQ
110	Sebastian Heisele	77.4	106
111	Julian Suri	77.4	119
112	Oliver Wilson	77.4	74
113	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	77.4	34
114	Jonathan Caldwell	77.5	139
115	Chris Wood	77.5	DNP
116	Joel Sjoholm	77.5	64
117	Alexander Knappe	77.6	25
118	Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez	77.6	WD
119	Daniel Hillier	77.6	DNP
120	Kristian Krogh Johannessen	77.7	DNP
121	Cormac Sharvin	77.7	129
122	Benjamin Poke	77.7	90
123	Joel Stalter	77.7	119
124	Soren Kjeldsen	77.7	90
125	Toby Tree	77.8	119
126	Nino Bertasio	77.8	WD
127	Peter Hanson	77.8	139
128	Pep Angles	77.9	29
129	Gregory Havret	77.9	113
130	Nicolai von Dellingshausen	78.0	18
131	Zach Murray	78.0	113
132	Oliver Fisher	78.1	WD
133	Rikard Karlberg	78.1	129
134	David Howell	78.1	129
135	Carlos Pigem	78.2	59
136	Haydn Porteous	78.2	132
137	Andrea Pavan	78.2	64
138	Oliver Farr	78.3	69
139	Graeme Storm	78.3	143
140	Ricardo Santos	78.3	47
141	David Drysdale	78.3	WD
142	Freddy Schott	78.3	51
143	Mutahi Kibugu	78.4	DNP
144	Jordan Gumberg	78.4	106
145	Anton Albers	78.4	125
146	Philipp Katich	78.4	139
147	Jannik De Bruyn	78.4	74
148	Yannick Schutz	78.4	132
149	Nick Bachem	78.4	113
150	Hui-lin Zhang	78.4	119
151	Jin Choi	78.4	DNP
152	Jesper Kennegard	78.4	64
153	Andrew Wilson	78.5	99
154	Mike Lorenzo-Vera	78.6	40
155	Darius van Driel	78.6	74
156	Maverick Antcliff	78.7	90
157	Lucas Bjerregaard	78.8	119
158	Jack Singh Brar	78.9	73
159	Hugo Leon	79.0	59
160	Steven Brown	79.0	74
161	Chris Paisley	79.2	106
162	Ondrej Lieser	79.3	74
163	Daan Huizing	79.8	10
	Benedict Staben	late entry	104
	Max Rottluff	late entry	112
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 8. The average is 129. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (May 29, 2022)

May 30, 2022 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Jon Rahm is back at no. 1 after one week at no. 2.

#	Thru May 29, 2022	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Jon Rahm	48	1507	2
2	Justin Thomas	52	1475	1
3	Scottie Scheffler	59	1365	7
4	Rory McIlroy	47	1357	4
5	Xander Schauffele	50	1355	3
6	Patrick Cantlay	43	1349	5
7	Cameron Smith	47	1338	6
8	Cameron Young	25	1259	8
9	Will Zalatoris	47	1174	9
10	Viktor Hovland	58	1166	10
11	Sam Burns	53	1136	16
12	Matthew Fitzpatrick	53	1132	11
13	Shane Lowry	55	1121	12
14	Dustin Johnson	44	1106	13
15	Collin Morikawa	54	1083	14
16	Jordan Spieth	50	1082	18
17	Daniel Berger	44	1071	15
18	Paul Casey	44	1047	17
19	Corey Conners	58	1018	19
20	Tyrrell Hatton	52	977	20
21	Mito Pereira	31	972	29
22	Joaquin Niemann	57	953	21
23	Max Homa	55	947	24
24	Hideki Matsuyama	51	941	22
25	Sungjae Im	66	940	27
26	Louis Oosthuizen	42	924	25
27	Seamus Power	41	916	26
28	Billy Horschel	56	902	23
29	Russell Henley	50	882	28
30	Talor Gooch	59	873	30
31	Kevin Na	51	862	39
32	Brooks Koepka	44	861	32
33	Harold Varner	56	854	33
34	Tony Finau	59	849	42
35	Abraham Ancer	59	840	31
36	Tommy Fleetwood	55	839	34
37	Alex Noren	53	827	35
38	Adam Scott	37	822	36
39	Keegan Bradley	59	821	37
40	Webb Simpson	44	819	38
41	Davis Riley	33	808	49
42	Chris Kirk	51	768	47
43	Bryson DeChambeau	41	766	43
44	Brian Harman	57	762	41
45	Cameron Tringale	53	762	40
46	Sergio Garcia	49	741	46
47	Jason Kokrak	55	736	44
48	Aaron Wise	47	716	48
49	Patrick Reed	60	713	60
50	Justin Rose	44	710	45
51	Keith Mitchell	55	700	51
52	Harris English	44	693	50
53	Brendan Steele	49	675	54
54	Bubba Watson	45	675	53
55	Matt Kuchar	50	657	57
56	Sebastian Munoz	63	656	55
57	Kevin Kisner	55	656	52
58	Si Woo Kim	62	656	58
59	Adam Hadwin	56	655	59
60	Marc Leishman	53	651	61
61	Maverick McNealy	54	640	56
62	Tom Hoge	68	621	63
63	Erik van Rooyen	53	621	62
64	Ryan Palmer	52	599	65
65	Jason Day	45	592	66
66	Gary Woodland	51	589	64
67	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	54	573	77
68	Sepp Straka	65	569	68
69	Kevin Streelman	59	563	67
70	Taylor Pendrith	26	558	70
71	Lanto Griffin	60	553	71
72	Taylor Montgomery	8	549	73
73	Ian Poulter	57	545	74
74	Brendon Todd	59	542	90
75	Cameron Davis	51	540	88
76	Lucas Herbert	41	537	72
77	Taylor Moore	23	534	69
78	Mac Hughes	57	530	75
79	Troy Merritt	63	519	76
80	Jhonattan Vegas	52	519	78
81	David Lipsky	34	505	80
82	Stewart Cink	48	498	79
83	Anirban Lahiri	42	497	84
84	Matthew Wolff	47	492	82
85	Patton Kizzire	56	487	81
86	KH Lee	61	484	83
87	Denny McCarthy	61	482	87
88	CT Pan	54	480	85
89	Matt Jones	59	474	106
90	Matthew NeSmith	59	473	86
91	Scott Stallings	57	460	115
92	Russell Knox	62	459	107
93	Charles Howell	43	456	91
94	Robert MacIntyre	50	455	92
95	Pat Perez	56	453	111
96	Charl Schwartzel	52	452	93
97	Doug Ghim	51	446	89
98	Luke List	60	436	96
99	Lee Westwood	47	434	100
100	Francesco Molinari	32	434	99
101	Thomas Pieters	41	433	103
102	Joel Dahmen	55	432	94
103	Lucas Glover	58	431	101
104	Bud Cauley	10	431	104
105	Charley Hoffman	53	429	95
106	Rickie Fowler	47	426	98
107	Sahith Theegala	36	425	97
108	Adam Long	61	424	105
109	Aaron Rai	54	417	102
110	Beau Hossler	58	414	113
111	Dylan Frittelli	61	407	110
112	Branden Grace	57	406	109
113	JT Poston	59	400	108
114	Cameron Champ	48	392	112
115	Alex Smalley	28	386	123
116	Zach Johnson	50	385	120
117	Chez Reavie	60	381	119
118	Andrew Putnam	60	378	134
119	JJ Spaun	57	369	114
120	Nate Lashley	53	363	116
121	Emiliano Grillo	60	357	117
122	Steve Stricker	17	355	124
123	Carlos Ortiz	55	353	118
124	John Huh	40	350	159
125	Rory Sabbatini	51	350	121
126	Nick Taylor	55	343	131
127	Sam Ryder	62	342	126
128	Bernd Wiesberger	50	342	130
129	James Hahn	45	342	122
130	Michael Thompson	52	341	132
131	Peter Malnati	60	337	128
132	Doc Redman	57	333	129
133	Adri Arnaus	49	332	133
134	Austin Smotherman	22	330	125
135	Chad Ramey	27	327	157
136	Oliver Bekker	19	327	127
137	Adam Schenk	66	323	135
138	Danny Willett	56	321	138
139	Harry Higgs	60	320	136
140	Adam Svensson	28	320	139
141	Lee Hodges	31	319	147
142	Matt Wallace	60	316	146
143	Richard Bland	49	312	137
144	Sam Horsfield	40	312	140
145	Martin Laird	41	307	144
146	Hudson Swafford	54	305	145
147	Matthias Schwab	53	303	143
148	Tyler Duncan	62	302	170
149	Kurt Kitayama	45	301	153
150	Robert Streb	54	301	141
151	Scott Piercy	53	300	142
152	Phil Mickelson	36	299	149
153	Mark Hubbard	59	294	150
154	Padraig Harrington	37	293	152
155	Wyndham Clark	57	291	148
156	Victor Perez	47	287	165
157	Brandt Snedeker	55	287	155
158	John Augenstein	12	286	158
159	Min Woo Lee	42	282	154
160	Patrick Rodgers	66	279	163
161	Stephan Jaeger	33	278	156
162	Ryan Fox	42	278	174
163	Hennie du Plessis	17	275	151
164	Hank Lebioda	50	273	161
165	Rasmus Hojgaard	46	272	168
166	Brian Stuard	70	269	160
167	Adrian Meronk	50	265	180
168	Joohyung Kim	14	264	166
169	Kramer Hickok	51	263	162
170	Ryan Armour	51	260	167
171	Vincent Whaley	55	259	164
172	Pablo Larrazabal	44	259	169
173	Takumi Kanaya	33	256	172
174	Justin Harding	53	256	171
175	Justin Lower	21	254	176
176	Jason Scrivener	42	246	173
177	Brice Garnett	59	246	179
178	Jordan Smith	52	243	183
179	Austin Eckroat	11	240	182
180	Danny Lee	53	240	208
181	Trey Mullinax	23	239	175
182	Hayden Buckley	28	239	178
183	Satoshi Kodaira	43	238	185
184	Brandon Wu	29	236	177
185	Dylan Wu	24	235	188
186	Roger Sloan	54	231	189
187	Greyson Sigg	34	229	184
188	Garrick Higgo	53	228	187
189	Thomas Detry	50	226	186
190	Laurie Canter	45	225	191
191	Henrik Norlander	57	225	190
192	Marcus Armitage	53	224	192
193	Julien Brun	15	222	181
194	Kevin Chappell	28	222	194
195	Sean O’Hair	32	220	195
196	Alexander Bjork	43	219	214
197	Mikko Korhonen	38	218	210
198	Byeong Hun An	43	216	196
199	Andrew Novak	24	215	197
200	Dean Burmester	51	214	193
201	Graeme McDowell	50	213	201
202	Richy Werenski	59	213	200
203	Andrew Landry	43	213	199
204	Kyle Stanley	54	211	203
205	Chase Seiffert	47	211	204
206	Hurly Long	25	211	222
207	Victor Dubuisson	24	210	202
208	Andrew Johnston	24	205	209
209	Tyler McCumber	43	205	206
210	Fabrizio Zanotti	34	204	213
211	Henrik Stenson	46	203	212
212	Jonathan Byrd	32	203	207
213	Justin Suh	16	201	211
214	Antoine Rozner	51	200	218
215	Wesley Bryan	27	198	215
216	Yannik Paul	12	196	198
217	Luke Donald	49	195	220
218	Guido Migliozzi	50	195	226
219	Martin Kaymer	35	194	217
220	Thriston Lawrence	20	193	205
221	Haotong Li	39	192	216
222	Cameron Percy	44	184	223
223	Jim Furyk	16	183	225
224	Romain Langasque	49	182	224
225	Scott Jamieson	46	180	219
226	Ashun Wu	38	179	221
227	Bo Hoag	54	178	229
228	Brandon Hagy	54	176	231
229	Joseph Bramlett	57	175	232
230	Tom Lewis	46	175	230
231	Adrian Otaegui	54	173	228
232	Nicolai Hojgaard	48	172	227
233	Ryan Moore	32	170	234
234	Edoardo Molinari	46	169	237
235	Richie Ramsay	50	168	239
236	Vaughn Taylor	49	167	243
237	Wade Ormsby	38	167	244
238	Andy Sullivan	49	166	233
239	Calum Hill	41	166	245
240	Shubhankar Sharma	55	165	259
241	Richard Mansell	26	165	285
242	Nick Watney	51	165	238
243	Rafa Cabrera Bello	58	165	236
244	Matthew Jordan	51	164	241
245	Sean Crocker	52	164	246
246	Johannes Veerman	45	163	240
247	Marcel Siem	29	162	235
248	Shaun Norris	29	162	249
249	Davis Thompson	11	160	252
250	Thorbjorn Olesen	38	160	242
251	Max McGreevy	25	159	253
252	Camilo Villegas	49	158	247
253	George Coetzee	39	157	248
254	Jimmy Walker	46	156	258
255	Robert Garrigus	18	155	255
256	Kalle Samooja	46	155	251
257	Tiger Woods	9	154	256
258	Matthieu Pavon	50	153	260
259	Chase Hanna	24	153	250
260	Masahiro Kawamura	57	152	257
261	Jamie Donaldson	46	152	262
262	Nick Hardy	21	149	265
263	Kevin Tway	55	145	263
264	Trevor Fisher	8	144	269
265	Ben Martin	37	144	268
266	Chan Kim	26	144	266
267	Joachim B Hansen	53	143	264
268	Jim Herman	45	143	267
269	Tapio Pulkkanen	50	142	270
270	Bronson Burgoon	49	142	271
271	Callum Shinkwin	45	140	272
272	Lukas Nemecz	16	140	261
273	Michael Gligic	53	138	275
274	JC Ritchie	24	138	297
275	Robby Shelton	44	138	273
276	Francesco Laporta	51	137	274
277	Angel Hidalgo	9	137	254
278	Daniel van Tonder	39	136	276
279	Ross Fisher	49	135	279
280	Brad Kennedy	12	135	283
281	Martin Trainer	57	134	289
282	Jeff Winther	44	133	282
283	Chesson Hadley	55	133	288
284	Connor Syme	51	133	280
285	Bryson Nimmer	8	133	290
286	David Horsey	49	133	277
287	Brandon Stone	46	132	281
288	Bo Van Pelt	47	131	294
289	Paul Barjon	29	131	278
290	David Lingmerth	22	131	293
291	Wil Besseling	50	131	284
292	Justin Walters	53	130	286
293	Grant Forrest	51	130	291
294	Ryosuke Kinoshita	20	130	295
295	Aaron Baddeley	39	128	296
296	Bill Haas	50	127	344
297	Matthias Schmid	26	126	287
298	Wilco Nienaber	43	125	292
299	Curtis Thompson	26	124	299
300	Ben Kohles	22	124	298
301	Callum Tarren	22	124	300
302	Rikuya Hoshino	25	123	301
303	Jazz Janewattananond	52	123	307
304	Scott Gutschewski	22	122	304
305	Sung Kang	63	120	309
306	Shugo Imahira	20	120	305
307	Rob Oppenheim	36	119	308
308	Will Gordon	39	118	306
309	Jack Senior	48	117	318
310	Kelly Kraft	39	117	311
311	Ryan Brehm	37	116	303
312	Jorge Campillo	56	116	323
313	Marcel Schneider	36	115	370
314	Ewen Ferguson	34	115	317
315	Kristoffer Broberg	32	115	347
316	Seonghyeon Kim	8	114	316
317	Aaron Cockerill	45	114	314
318	Jason Dufner	53	114	312
319	Craig Howie	24	114	302
320	Daniel Gavins	33	113	310
321	Sebastian Soderberg	50	113	351
322	Darren Fichardt	29	113	321
323	Maximilian Kieffer	47	112	343
324	Joakim Lagergren	45	111	313
325	Keita Nakajima	12	111	319
326	John Catlin	50	109	315
327	Jacques Kruyswijk	31	109	324
328	Ben Taylor	26	107	327
329	Joost Luiten	52	107	326
330	James Morrison	53	107	322
331	Mark Anderson	29	106	331
332	Louis de Jager	31	106	330
333	Marcus Kinhult	40	106	320
334	Peter Uihlein	37	106	329
335	Eddie Pepperell	43	105	356
336	MJ Daffue	16	105	325
337	Alexander Levy	44	104	333
338	Grayson Murray	31	103	334
339	Jacques Blaauw	9	103	335
340	Ockie Strydom	8	103	336
341	Niall Kearney	25	102	338
342	Julien Guerrier	49	102	328
343	Austin Cook	56	101	337
344	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	45	101	332
345	Frederic LaCroix	15	100	374
346	Scott Brown	48	98	341
347	Dawie van der Walt	24	97	342
348	David Skinns	20	97	340
349	Sami Valimaki	48	97	339
350	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	14	95	394
351	David Law	52	95	348
352	Jared Wolfe	23	95	345
353	Niklas Norgaard Moller	16	94	364
354	Keenan Davidse	8	94	349
355	Dale Whitnell	52	93	373
356	Ricardo Gouveia	17	93	491
357	Ollie Schniederjans	10	93	346
358	CJ du Plessis	8	91	352
359	Seth Reeves	24	91	354
360	Nacho Elvira	54	90	350
361	Richard Sterne	19	89	359
362	Michael Gellerman	23	88	362
363	Matthew Southgate	50	88	353
364	Xinjun Zhang	38	87	355
365	Hiroshi Iwata	19	87	361
366	Chris Baker	29	86	360
367	Akshay Bhatia	15	86	358
368	Renato Paratore	52	85	357
369	Scott Vincent	32	83	366
370	Adrien Saddier	38	83	368
371	Yuto Katsuragawa	10	82	369
372	Josh Teater	26	81	371
373	Santiago Tarrio Ben	24	81	363
374	Nino Bertasio	45	80	367
375	Benjamin Hebert	42	80	365
376	Rafael Campos	31	79	375
377	Brian Gay	50	77	376
378	Oscar Lengden	12	77	379
379	Gavin Green	50	77	372
380	Neil Schietekat	11	77	378
381	Marcus Helligkilde	14	76	386
382	Jayden Schaper	14	76	382
383	Niklas Lemke	40	76	383
384	Scott Harrington	41	76	385
385	Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez	48	75	377
386	Chris Stroud	18	75	381
387	Bryce Easton	33	75	389
388	Nicolas Colsaerts	32	75	392
389	Fabian Gomez	37	75	388
390	Berry Henson	16	74	393
391	Stephen Gallacher	36	73	419
392	Kristoffer Ventura	37	73	384
393	Andy Ogletree	11	73	395
394	Robert Rock	34	72	380
395	Jaco Ahlers	12	72	396
396	Marc Warren	43	71	391
397	Ashley Chesters	51	71	420
398	Rourke van der Spuy	8	70	397
399	Tommy Gainey	19	70	398
400	Espen Kofstad	15	70	387
More \| Less

Perspectives on the Charles Schwab Challenge

May 23, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

I love this place!

Player	History
Jordan Spieth	0.875
Brian Harman	0.744
Tony Finau	0.613
Emiliano Grillo	0.569
Justin Rose	0.546
Jason Kokrak	0.542
Charley Hoffman	0.541
Kevin Na	0.500

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Justin Thomas	1	1528.8
Scottie Scheffler	7	1300.5
Will Zalatoris	9	1210.7
Viktor Hovland	10	1160.2
Collin Morikawa	14	1103.1
Daniel Berger	15	1064.3
Sam Burns	16	1050.2
Jordan Spieth	18	1016.2

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	2	1506.8
Xander Schauffele	3	1355.2
Rory McIlroy	4	1353.3
Patrick Cantlay	5	1348.4

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Davis Riley	1865.6
Will Zalatoris	1504.6
Justin Thomas	1257.8
Harold Varner	1134.4
Jordan Spieth	1031.5
Matthew NeSmith	972.5
David Lipsky	905.8
JT Poston	810.4

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Bryson DeChambeau	-760.9
Kevin Kisner	-677.9
Daniel Berger	-591.9
Sepp Straka	-568.4
Harris English	-535.8
Kevin Streelman	-505.3
Charley Hoffman	-442.3
Patton Kizzire	-366.2

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Colonial Country Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.17	Shots gained putting
0.15	Shots gained in approach
0.14	Driving accuracy
0.11	Shots gained around the green

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Matthias Schwab	70.55
Brendon Todd	70.56
Webb Simpson	70.61
Collin Morikawa	70.63
Daniel Berger	70.64
Abraham Ancer	70.74
Brian Stuard	70.79
Sungjae Im	70.82

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Ryan Brehm	72.4
Martin Trainer	72.3
Wyndham Clark	72.0
Nick Watney	71.9
Dylan Frittelli	71.9
Danny Lee	71.9
Kurt Kitayama	71.8
Patrick Rodgers	71.8

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Ft. Worth TX, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Ryan Palmer	Colleyville TX	17
Taylor Moore	Dallas TX	33
Max McGreevy	Dallas TX	33
Harry Higgs	Dallas TX	33
Kramer Hickok	Dallas TX	33
Beau Hossler	Dallas TX	33
Austin Smotherman	Dallas TX	33
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas TX	33
Jordan Spieth	Dallas TX	33
Carlos Ortiz	Dallas TX	33
John Huh	Dallas TX	33
Bryson DeChambeau	Dallas TX	33
Will Zalatoris	Dallas TX	33

Mathematically speaking

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.310
I love this place	0.181
Ooh, that’s hot	0.153
Location, location, location	0.015

Charles Schwab Challenge

May 23, 2022 Thomas Hawley Picks, U.S. Events

Justin Thomas

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Justin Thomas	12.6	82
2	Jordan Spieth	21.6	7
3	Will Zalatoris	23.3	82
4	Scottie Scheffler	30.7	2
5	Kevin Na	33.2	7
6	Justin Rose	34.7	82
7	Jason Kokrak	35.0	67
8	Collin Morikawa	36.2	40
9	Harold Varner	38.1	27
10	Sam Burns	39.0	1
11	Viktor Hovland	39.2	21
12	Davis Riley	39.3	4
13	Max Homa	39.5	23
14	Mito Pereira	41.1	7
15	Daniel Berger	41.5	23
16	Billy Horschel	41.7	82
17	Talor Gooch	42.3	27
18	Sungjae Im	42.4	15
19	Brian Harman	43.4	82
20	Tommy Fleetwood	43.7	35
21	Tony Finau	44.5	4
22	Abraham Ancer	44.9	70
23	Cameron Tringale	47.2	93
24	Webb Simpson	51.1	27
25	Tom Hoge	51.5	93
26	Chris Kirk	51.6	15
27	Sebastian Munoz	51.9	48
28	Bubba Watson	52.0	DNP
29	David Lipsky	53.1	48
30	Matthew NeSmith	53.7	57
31	Gary Woodland	54.2	93
32	Maverick McNealy	54.4	70
33	JT Poston	55.5	98
34	Bryson DeChambeau	55.8	DNP
35	Lucas Herbert	55.9	48
36	Ryan Palmer	56.0	40
37	Patrick Reed	56.5	7
38	CT Pan	56.6	52
39	KH Lee	56.7	70
40	Stewart Cink	56.9	70
41	Harris English	57.3	DNP
42	Kevin Kisner	57.6	82
43	Taylor Moore	57.7	107
44	Emiliano Grillo	57.8	63
45	Erik van Rooyen	58.0	93
46	Troy Merritt	58.0	57
47	Ian Poulter	58.2	40
48	Adam Long	59.1	35
49	Rory Sabbatini	59.4	52
50	Kevin Streelman	59.7	98
51	James Hahn	59.8	114
52	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	60.3	15
53	Cameron Davis	60.6	7
54	Aaron Rai	60.7	68
55	Joel Dahmen	60.8	63
56	Charley Hoffman	61.0	66
57	Rickie Fowler	61.0	57
58	Lucas Glover	61.8	40
59	Peter Malnati	61.9	82
60	Nate Lashley	61.9	93
61	Sepp Straka	62.4	DNP
62	Patton Kizzire	62.8	70
63	Russell Knox	62.8	15
64	Chez Reavie	62.9	27
65	Brendon Todd	63.0	3
66	Denny McCarthy	63.0	27
67	Stephan Jaeger	63.1	82
68	Charl Schwartzel	63.1	DNP
69	Doug Ghim	63.5	118
70	Kurt Kitayama	63.8	40
71	Matt Jones	64.1	12
72	Doc Redman	64.7	98
73	Dylan Frittelli	64.7	35
74	Austin Smotherman	64.8	63
75	Pat Perez	64.9	12
76	Adam Schenk	65.0	70
77	JJ Spaun	65.0	WD
78	Sahith Theegala	65.5	57
79	Beau Hossler	65.7	21
80	Min Woo Lee	65.7	70
81	Sam Ryder	65.8	70
82	Mark Hubbard	66.0	52
83	Patrick Rodgers	66.3	35
84	Scott Piercy	66.4	98
85	Scott Stallings	66.8	4
86	Alex Smalley	66.9	27
87	Andrew Putnam	67.0	15
88	Wyndham Clark	67.0	70
89	Nick Taylor	67.2	48
90	Danny Willett	67.3	DNP
91	Zach Johnson	67.4	23
92	Carlos Ortiz	67.4	70
93	Brandt Snedeker	67.7	57
94	Michael Thompson	67.8	40
95	Brandon Wu	68.0	111
96	Brian Stuard	68.1	82
97	Trey Mullinax	68.3	114
98	Richard Bland	68.7	98
99	Robert Streb	68.9	98
100	Matthias Schwab	69.2	57
101	Chad Ramey	69.3	27
102	Harry Higgs	69.3	69
103	Matt Wallace	69.4	DNP
104	Garrick Higgo	69.4	105
105	Tyler Duncan	69.7	15
106	Adam Svensson	69.8	40
107	Lee Hodges	69.9	35
108	Vincent Whaley	70.1	82
109	John Huh	70.4	12
110	Andrew Novak	70.7	DNP
111	Kramer Hickok	70.9	70
112	Greyson Sigg	71.4	98
113	Hayden Buckley	71.4	111
114	Danny Lee	71.4	23
115	Jonathan Byrd	71.6	DNP
116	Kevin Tway	72.0	107
117	Andrew Landry	72.1	DNP
118	Luke Donald	72.1	40
119	Henrik Norlander	72.1	DNP
120	Camilo Villegas	73.8	70
121	Martin Trainer	73.9	52
122	Nick Watney	74.0	107
123	Max McGreevy	74.1	52
124	Ryan Brehm	74.6	105
125	Paul Barjon	74.7	118
126	Bill Haas	75.4	27
127	John Pak	76.4	111
128	Erik Compton	77.4	107
129	James Piot	78.4	114
130	Tyler Strafaci	78.4	114
	Jason Dufner	late entry	86
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 86. The average is 130. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Dutch Open

May 23, 2022 Thomas Hawley Euro Events, Picks

Thomas Detry

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Thomas Detry	56.8	66
2	Thomas Pieters	59.0	10
3	Matt Wallace	60.1	5
4	Eddie Pepperell	62.0	14
5	Jason Scrivener	62.4	66
6	George Coetzee	63.5	99
7	Oliver Bekker	65.1	99
8	Bernd Wiesberger	65.3	24
9	Ryan Fox	65.3	2
10	Chris Wood	65.5	125
11	Joakim Lagergren	65.7	99
12	Mikko Korhonen	66.2	14
13	Hennie du Plessis	66.4	56
14	Ashun Wu	66.6	47
15	Maximilian Kieffer	67.1	14
16	Adrian Meronk	67.3	3
17	Wil Besseling	67.5	88
18	Richie Ramsay	67.7	43
19	Rasmus Hojgaard	68.0	10
20	Adrian Otaegui	68.7	65
21	Yannik Paul	68.7	146
22	Victor Perez	68.8	1
23	Romain Langasque	69.1	31
24	Jordan Smith	69.2	24
25	Justin Walters	70.0	99
26	Julien Brun	70.2	88
27	Marcus Armitage	70.2	31
28	David Horsey	70.5	141
29	Johannes Veerman	70.6	88
30	Thorbjorn Olesen	70.6	114
31	Scott Jamieson	70.8	66
32	Victor Dubuisson	70.8	DNP
33	Ashley Chesters	70.9	21
34	Edoardo Molinari	70.9	37
35	Matthew Southgate	70.9	114
36	Dean Burmester	71.1	77
37	Chase Hanna	71.3	99
38	Thriston Lawrence	71.3	99
39	Haotong Li	71.5	37
40	Jorge Campillo	71.5	21
41	Shubhankar Sharma	71.6	14
42	Alexander Bjork	71.9	7
43	Hurly Long	72.1	10
44	Matthew Jordan	72.1	51
45	Brandon Stone	72.2	99
46	Richard Mansell	72.2	9
47	Antoine Rozner	72.3	21
48	Nicolai Hojgaard	72.8	99
49	Lukas Nemecz	72.9	66
50	Angel Hidalgo	72.9	77
51	Kalle Samooja	73.0	66
52	Andy Sullivan	73.0	66
53	Guido Migliozzi	73.2	10
54	Wilco Nienaber	73.2	66
55	Sean Crocker	73.2	DNP
56	Masahiro Kawamura	73.4	47
57	Julien Guerrier	73.4	121
58	JC Ritchie	73.4	24
59	Connor Syme	73.5	77
60	Marcel Siem	73.5	99
61	Rafa Cabrera Bello	73.5	135
62	Callum Shinkwin	73.6	37
63	Ross Fisher	73.7	51
64	Nino Bertasio	73.7	66
65	Craig Howie	73.8	99
66	Aaron Cockerill	73.8	DNP
67	Darren Fichardt	73.8	37
68	Marcus Kinhult	73.8	88
69	Daniel van Tonder	73.9	47
70	Joachim B Hansen	74.0	114
71	Francesco Laporta	74.0	56
72	Grant Forrest	74.1	43
73	Matthias Schmid	74.1	125
74	Marcel Schneider	74.1	4
75	David Law	74.2	37
76	Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez	74.4	141
77	Jazz Janewattananond	74.4	31
78	Jeff Winther	74.4	47
79	John Catlin	74.4	66
80	James Morrison	74.5	88
81	Gavin Green	74.5	125
82	Daniel Gavins	74.5	141
83	Jack Senior	74.7	31
84	David Drysdale	74.7	135
85	Sebastian Soderberg	74.9	5
86	Sami Valimaki	74.9	77
87	Joost Luiten	74.9	43
88	Ewen Ferguson	75.1	37
89	Jack Singh Brar	75.1	146
90	Marc Warren	75.1	154
91	Santiago Tarrio Ben	75.2	88
92	Oliver Wilson	75.3	64
93	Nacho Elvira	75.3	125
94	Alejandro Canizares	75.3	146
95	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	75.4	125
96	Espen Kofstad	75.5	66
97	Niklas Norgaard Moller	75.5	31
98	Renato Paratore	75.6	125
99	Kristoffer Broberg	75.6	14
100	Steven Brown	75.6	121
101	Niklas Lemke	75.6	DNP
102	Benjamin Hebert	75.6	135
103	Robert Rock	75.7	77
104	Frederic LaCroix	75.7	24
105	Sebastian Heisele	75.9	62
106	Paul Waring	75.9	77
107	Dale Whitnell	75.9	14
108	Andrew Wilson	75.9	88
109	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	75.9	24
110	Richard McEvoy	75.9	99
111	Lorenzo Gagli	75.9	24
112	Nicolai von Dellingshausen	75.9	135
113	Rowin Caron	76.1	88
114	Andrea Pavan	76.1	51
115	Sihwan Kim	76.3	31
116	Oliver Farr	76.4	51
117	Darius van Driel	76.4	88
118	Haydn Porteous	76.4	77
119	Mike Lorenzo-Vera	76.4	99
120	Ricardo Santos	76.5	121
121	Lars van Meijel	76.6	56
122	Stephen Gallacher	76.6	24
123	Zander Lombard	76.7	125
124	Pep Angles	76.7	77
125	Daan Huizing	76.7	114
126	Garrick Porteous	76.9	DNP
127	Maverick Antcliff	76.9	77
128	Ross McGowan	77.0	56
129	Alvaro Quiros	77.0	63
130	Robin Sciot-Siegrist	77.1	DNP
131	Dave Coupland	77.1	77
132	Lucas Bjerregaard	77.1	125
133	Ricardo Gouveia	77.1	7
134	Jean-Baptiste Gonnet	77.1	DNP
135	Gaganjeet Bhullar	77.2	99
136	Rikard Karlberg	77.2	125
137	Scott Hend	77.2	14
138	Robin Roussel	77.3	99
139	Thomas Bjorn	77.3	51
140	Hugo Leon	77.4	114
141	Jonathan Caldwell	77.4	121
142	Raphael Jacquelin	77.5	43
143	Julian Suri	77.5	88
144	Romain Wattel	77.5	135
145	Cormac Sharvin	77.7	141
146	Oliver Fisher	77.7	WD
147	Joel Stalter	77.7	56
148	Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	77.9	56
149	Zach Murray	78.0	99
150	David Howell	78.1	WD
151	SSP Chawrasia	78.1	135
152	Graeme Storm	78.2	114
153	Koen Kouwenaar	78.4	125
154	Hui-lin Zhang	78.4	114
155	Javier Ballesteros	78.4	141
156	Lev Grinberg	78.4	151
157	Thijmen Batens	78.4	151
158	Jerry Ji	78.4	88
159	Kiet van der Weele	78.4	153
160	Jack Ingham	78.4	146
161	Mats Markovits	78.4	146
162	Dario Antonisse	78.4	66
163	Robbie van West	78.4	77
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 48. The average is 130. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Tom Hawley’s U.S./ Euro Ratings (May 22, 2022)

May 23, 2022 Thomas Hawley Ratings

Justin Thomas returns to no. 1 after a gap of 38 months.

#	Thru May 22, 2022	Events	Hawley Rating	Previous Week
1	Justin Thomas	51	1529	2
2	Jon Rahm	48	1507	1
3	Xander Schauffele	50	1355	5
4	Rory McIlroy	47	1353	7
5	Patrick Cantlay	43	1348	3
6	Cameron Smith	47	1329	6
7	Scottie Scheffler	58	1301	4
8	Cameron Young	25	1258	14
9	Will Zalatoris	46	1211	12
10	Viktor Hovland	57	1160	8
11	Matthew Fitzpatrick	53	1129	17
12	Shane Lowry	55	1113	13
13	Dustin Johnson	44	1108	9
14	Collin Morikawa	53	1103	10
15	Daniel Berger	43	1064	11
16	Sam Burns	52	1050	18
17	Paul Casey	44	1040	16
18	Jordan Spieth	49	1016	19
19	Corey Conners	58	1014	15
20	Tyrrell Hatton	52	977	25
21	Joaquin Niemann	57	954	23
22	Hideki Matsuyama	51	943	20
23	Billy Horschel	55	930	21
24	Max Homa	54	929	30
25	Louis Oosthuizen	42	919	22
26	Seamus Power	41	915	34
27	Sungjae Im	65	910	26
28	Russell Henley	50	883	24
29	Mito Pereira	30	883	46
30	Talor Gooch	58	865	33
31	Abraham Ancer	58	863	37
32	Brooks Koepka	44	858	27
33	Harold Varner	55	845	28
34	Tommy Fleetwood	54	843	44
35	Alex Noren	53	825	31
36	Adam Scott	37	823	29
37	Keegan Bradley	59	815	32
38	Webb Simpson	43	813	42
39	Kevin Na	50	789	43
40	Cameron Tringale	52	787	35
41	Brian Harman	56	784	38
42	Tony Finau	58	779	41
43	Bryson DeChambeau	41	770	39
44	Jason Kokrak	54	762	36
45	Justin Rose	43	740	56
46	Sergio Garcia	49	740	40
47	Chris Kirk	50	723	62
48	Aaron Wise	47	714	52
49	Davis Riley	32	697	64
50	Harris English	44	696	47
51	Keith Mitchell	55	695	48
52	Kevin Kisner	54	678	45
53	Bubba Watson	45	673	55
54	Brendan Steele	49	672	67
55	Sebastian Munoz	62	669	49
56	Maverick McNealy	53	662	50
57	Matt Kuchar	50	658	57
58	Si Woo Kim	62	656	51
59	Adam Hadwin	56	652	53
60	Patrick Reed	59	651	58
61	Marc Leishman	53	648	59
62	Erik van Rooyen	52	642	54
63	Tom Hoge	67	636	71
64	Gary Woodland	50	610	63
65	Ryan Palmer	51	607	60
66	Jason Day	45	594	61
67	Kevin Streelman	58	579	66
68	Sepp Straka	65	568	65
69	Taylor Moore	22	565	70
70	Taylor Pendrith	26	555	72
71	Lanto Griffin	60	554	68
72	Lucas Herbert	40	550	94
73	Taylor Montgomery	8	550	74
74	Ian Poulter	56	548	69
75	Mac Hughes	57	533	73
76	Troy Merritt	62	532	77
77	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	53	529	75
78	Jhonattan Vegas	52	517	76
79	Stewart Cink	47	515	86
80	David Lipsky	33	515	81
81	Patton Kizzire	55	501	79
82	Matthew Wolff	47	497	78
83	KH Lee	60	496	82
84	Anirban Lahiri	42	495	80
85	CT Pan	53	488	83
86	Matthew NeSmith	58	484	84
87	Denny McCarthy	60	467	85
88	Cameron Davis	50	461	89
89	Doug Ghim	50	460	91
90	Brendon Todd	58	459	92
91	Charles Howell	43	457	93
92	Robert MacIntyre	50	453	87
93	Charl Schwartzel	52	450	90
94	Joel Dahmen	54	450	88
95	Charley Hoffman	52	442	98
96	Luke List	60	437	100
97	Sahith Theegala	35	437	99
98	Rickie Fowler	46	437	115
99	Francesco Molinari	32	435	96
100	Lee Westwood	47	433	95
101	Lucas Glover	57	432	113
102	Aaron Rai	53	431	101
103	Thomas Pieters	40	428	97
104	Bud Cauley	10	422	105
105	Adam Long	60	421	104
106	Matt Jones	58	420	102
107	Russell Knox	61	416	103
108	JT Poston	58	413	107
109	Branden Grace	57	403	106
110	Dylan Frittelli	60	402	109
111	Pat Perez	55	395	110
112	Cameron Champ	48	394	108
113	Beau Hossler	57	384	112
114	JJ Spaun	56	381	111
115	Scott Stallings	56	378	114
116	Nate Lashley	52	374	119
117	Emiliano Grillo	59	367	120
118	Carlos Ortiz	54	364	116
119	Chez Reavie	59	363	121
120	Zach Johnson	49	357	117
121	Rory Sabbatini	50	356	123
122	James Hahn	44	356	122
123	Alex Smalley	27	355	124
124	Steve Stricker	17	354	125
125	Austin Smotherman	21	351	127
126	Sam Ryder	61	350	126
127	Oliver Bekker	18	349	118
128	Peter Malnati	59	348	129
129	Doc Redman	56	345	128
130	Bernd Wiesberger	49	344	139
131	Nick Taylor	54	344	130
132	Michael Thompson	51	340	131
133	Adri Arnaus	49	332	150
134	Andrew Putnam	59	330	134
135	Adam Schenk	65	330	136
136	Harry Higgs	59	328	132
137	Richard Bland	48	322	133
138	Danny Willett	56	319	137
139	Adam Svensson	27	312	140
140	Sam Horsfield	40	312	135
141	Robert Streb	53	311	141
142	Scott Piercy	52	309	142
143	Matthias Schwab	52	309	145
144	Martin Laird	41	307	144
145	Hudson Swafford	54	305	138
146	Matt Wallace	59	303	147
147	Lee Hodges	30	302	149
148	Wyndham Clark	56	300	151
149	Phil Mickelson	36	299	153
150	Mark Hubbard	58	298	152
151	Hennie du Plessis	16	295	154
152	Padraig Harrington	37	294	143
153	Kurt Kitayama	44	293	155
154	Min Woo Lee	41	292	146
155	Brandt Snedeker	54	292	158
156	Stephan Jaeger	32	290	157
157	Chad Ramey	26	287	148
158	John Augenstein	12	285	160
159	John Huh	39	281	159
160	Brian Stuard	69	275	162
161	Hank Lebioda	50	271	163
162	Kramer Hickok	50	271	161
163	Patrick Rodgers	65	270	164
164	Vincent Whaley	54	268	166
165	Victor Perez	46	264	168
166	Joohyung Kim	14	264	156
167	Ryan Armour	51	261	170
168	Rasmus Hojgaard	45	260	171
169	Pablo Larrazabal	44	257	167
170	Tyler Duncan	61	256	173
171	Justin Harding	53	255	169
172	Takumi Kanaya	33	255	165
173	Jason Scrivener	41	255	174
174	Ryan Fox	41	254	172
175	Trey Mullinax	22	253	176
176	Justin Lower	21	252	175
177	Brandon Wu	28	249	178
178	Hayden Buckley	27	249	177
179	Brice Garnett	59	246	179
180	Adrian Meronk	49	245	180
181	Julien Brun	14	242	183
182	Austin Eckroat	11	242	181
183	Jordan Smith	51	241	184
184	Greyson Sigg	33	240	185
185	Satoshi Kodaira	43	239	186
186	Thomas Detry	49	235	187
187	Garrick Higgo	52	234	182
188	Dylan Wu	24	234	188
189	Roger Sloan	54	231	189
190	Henrik Norlander	57	226	191
191	Laurie Canter	45	225	193
192	Marcus Armitage	52	224	192
193	Dean Burmester	50	222	190
194	Kevin Chappell	28	221	195
195	Sean O’Hair	32	220	194
196	Byeong Hun An	43	217	196
197	Andrew Novak	24	215	199
198	Yannik Paul	11	215	198
199	Andrew Landry	43	214	197
200	Richy Werenski	59	214	200
201	Graeme McDowell	50	214	202
202	Victor Dubuisson	24	211	201
203	Kyle Stanley	54	211	204
204	Chase Seiffert	47	211	203
205	Thriston Lawrence	19	206	211
206	Tyler McCumber	43	206	208
207	Jonathan Byrd	32	205	213
208	Danny Lee	52	205	210
209	Andrew Johnston	24	205	212
210	Mikko Korhonen	37	205	214
211	Justin Suh	16	205	206
212	Henrik Stenson	46	203	205
213	Fabrizio Zanotti	34	203	215
214	Alexander Bjork	42	201	217
215	Wesley Bryan	27	199	216
216	Haotong Li	38	197	218
217	Martin Kaymer	35	195	209
218	Antoine Rozner	50	194	219
219	Scott Jamieson	45	187	220
220	Luke Donald	48	185	223
221	Ashun Wu	37	184	221
222	Hurly Long	24	184	225
223	Cameron Percy	44	183	224
224	Romain Langasque	48	182	226
225	Jim Furyk	16	181	227
226	Guido Migliozzi	49	179	230
227	Nicolai Hojgaard	47	178	222
228	Adrian Otaegui	53	178	229
229	Bo Hoag	54	177	231
230	Tom Lewis	46	177	228
231	Brandon Hagy	54	175	234
232	Joseph Bramlett	57	175	232
233	Andy Sullivan	48	173	233
234	Ryan Moore	32	171	237
235	Marcel Siem	28	171	240
236	Rafa Cabrera Bello	57	171	236
237	Edoardo Molinari	45	170	239
238	Nick Watney	50	170	241
239	Richie Ramsay	49	170	238
240	Johannes Veerman	44	169	242
241	Matthew Jordan	50	168	243
242	Thorbjorn Olesen	37	167	244
243	Vaughn Taylor	49	166	246
244	Wade Ormsby	38	166	245
245	Calum Hill	41	165	249
246	Sean Crocker	52	164	248
247	Camilo Villegas	48	164	247
248	George Coetzee	38	163	250
249	Shaun Norris	29	163	235
250	Chase Hanna	23	162	251
251	Kalle Samooja	45	161	252
252	Davis Thompson	11	160	254
253	Max McGreevy	24	159	253
254	Angel Hidalgo	8	158	255
255	Robert Garrigus	18	156	257
256	Tiger Woods	9	155	207
257	Masahiro Kawamura	56	155	256
258	Jimmy Walker	46	154	261
259	Shubhankar Sharma	54	154	258
260	Matthieu Pavon	50	153	259
261	Lukas Nemecz	15	152	263
262	Jamie Donaldson	46	151	262
263	Kevin Tway	54	149	265
264	Joachim B Hansen	52	149	264
265	Nick Hardy	21	147	266
266	Chan Kim	26	144	260
267	Jim Herman	45	144	268
268	Ben Martin	37	143	270
269	Trevor Fisher	8	143	269
270	Tapio Pulkkanen	50	142	275
271	Bronson Burgoon	49	141	273
272	Callum Shinkwin	44	141	272
273	Robby Shelton	44	140	271
274	Francesco Laporta	50	140	276
275	Michael Gligic	53	140	274
276	Daniel van Tonder	38	139	267
277	David Horsey	48	139	278
278	Paul Barjon	28	138	279
279	Ross Fisher	48	138	282
280	Connor Syme	50	137	281
281	Brandon Stone	45	137	280
282	Jeff Winther	43	136	283
283	Brad Kennedy	12	136	284
284	Wil Besseling	49	136	286
285	Richard Mansell	25	136	285
286	Justin Walters	52	134	288
287	Matthias Schmid	25	134	289
288	Chesson Hadley	55	134	287
289	Martin Trainer	56	133	290
290	Bryson Nimmer	8	132	291
291	Grant Forrest	50	132	292
292	Wilco Nienaber	42	131	293
293	David Lingmerth	22	131	294
294	Bo Van Pelt	47	130	295
295	Ryosuke Kinoshita	20	130	277
296	Aaron Baddeley	39	128	297
297	JC Ritchie	23	125	299
298	Ben Kohles	22	124	301
299	Curtis Thompson	26	124	300
300	Callum Tarren	22	123	303
301	Rikuya Hoshino	25	123	298
302	Craig Howie	23	122	302
303	Ryan Brehm	36	122	296
304	Scott Gutschewski	22	122	307
305	Shugo Imahira	20	120	306
306	Will Gordon	39	120	304
307	Jazz Janewattananond	51	120	310
308	Rob Oppenheim	36	120	308
309	Sung Kang	63	119	309
310	Daniel Gavins	32	119	311
311	Kelly Kraft	39	117	312
312	Jason Dufner	52	117	305
313	Joakim Lagergren	44	116	313
314	Aaron Cockerill	45	114	316
315	John Catlin	49	114	315
316	Seonghyeon Kim	8	114	314
317	Ewen Ferguson	33	113	317
318	Jack Senior	47	113	319
319	Keita Nakajima	12	112	320
320	Marcus Kinhult	39	111	318
321	Darren Fichardt	28	111	321
322	James Morrison	52	110	322
323	Jorge Campillo	55	109	324
324	Jacques Kruyswijk	31	108	325
325	MJ Daffue	16	107	323
326	Joost Luiten	51	107	326
327	Ben Taylor	26	106	330
328	Julien Guerrier	48	106	329
329	Peter Uihlein	37	106	328
330	Louis de Jager	31	106	327
331	Mark Anderson	29	106	331
332	Kiradech Aphibarnrat	44	104	333
333	Alexander Levy	44	104	334
334	Grayson Murray	31	104	338
335	Jacques Blaauw	9	103	332
336	Ockie Strydom	8	103	335
337	Austin Cook	56	102	337
338	Niall Kearney	25	102	339
339	Sami Valimaki	47	102	336
340	David Skinns	20	98	340
341	Scott Brown	48	98	341
342	Dawie van der Walt	24	97	343
343	Maximilian Kieffer	46	96	344
344	Bill Haas	49	96	345
345	Jared Wolfe	23	95	346
346	Ollie Schniederjans	10	95	342
347	Kristoffer Broberg	31	95	347
348	David Law	51	93	351
349	Keenan Davidse	8	93	350
350	Nacho Elvira	53	92	353
351	Sebastian Soderberg	49	92	349
352	CJ du Plessis	8	92	352
353	Matthew Southgate	49	91	354
354	Seth Reeves	24	90	358
355	Xinjun Zhang	38	90	348
356	Eddie Pepperell	42	90	355
357	Renato Paratore	51	89	357
358	Akshay Bhatia	15	88	356
359	Richard Sterne	19	88	361
360	Chris Baker	29	88	359
361	Hiroshi Iwata	19	87	360
362	Michael Gellerman	23	87	362
363	Santiago Tarrio Ben	23	86	363
364	Niklas Norgaard Moller	15	84	364
365	Benjamin Hebert	41	83	365
366	Scott Vincent	32	83	367
367	Nino Bertasio	44	83	366
368	Adrien Saddier	38	83	369
369	Yuto Katsuragawa	10	82	368
370	Marcel Schneider	35	82	370
371	Josh Teater	26	81	374
372	Gavin Green	49	80	371
373	Dale Whitnell	51	80	372
374	Frederic LaCroix	14	80	373
375	Rafael Campos	31	79	377
376	Brian Gay	50	78	376
377	Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez	47	78	381
378	Neil Schietekat	11	78	380
379	Oscar Lengden	12	77	382
380	Robert Rock	33	77	379
381	Chris Stroud	18	77	378
382	Jayden Schaper	14	77	383
383	Niklas Lemke	40	77	384
384	Kristoffer Ventura	37	76	375
385	Scott Harrington	41	76	385
386	Marcus Helligkilde	14	76	386
387	Espen Kofstad	14	76	389
388	Fabian Gomez	37	75	387
389	Bryce Easton	33	75	388
390	Jack Singh Brar	15	75	390
391	Marc Warren	42	75	391
392	Nicolas Colsaerts	32	74	392
393	Berry Henson	16	74	393
394	Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	13	74	395
395	Andy Ogletree	11	73	394
396	Jaco Ahlers	12	72	398
397	Rourke van der Spuy	8	71	399
398	Tommy Gainey	19	70	402
399	Andrew Wilson	14	69	400
400	Oliver Wilson	48	68	403
More \| Less

Perspectives on the PGA Championship

May 16, 2022 Thomas Hawley Analytics

I love this place!

Player	History
Brooks Koepka	0.877
Paul Casey	0.718
Jason Day	0.706
Hideki Matsuyama	0.696
Justin Rose	0.695
Dustin Johnson	0.591
Jordan Spieth	0.583
Rickie Fowler	0.578

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1549.7
Justin Thomas	2	1410.3
Patrick Cantlay	3	1402.8
Scottie Scheffler	4	1338.7
Xander Schauffele	5	1299.6
Cameron Smith	6	1265.1
Rory McIlroy	7	1263.9
Viktor Hovland	8	1178.8

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Harris English	47	698.5
Brendan Steele	67	570.0
Taylor Moore	70	564.1
Taylor Pendrith	72	557.5

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Matt Kuchar	1588.9
Davis Riley	1364.6
Will Zalatoris	1337.7
Harold Varner	1311.2
Scottie Scheffler	1089.7
Shane Lowry	1045.3
Cameron Smith	896.6
Jordan Spieth	877.4

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Keegan Bradley	-811.3
Bryson DeChambeau	-764.2
Russell Henley	-665.3
Kevin Kisner	-662.1
Louis Oosthuizen	-642.8
Keith Mitchell	-563.2
Webb Simpson	-440.6
Kevin Streelman	-415.8

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Southern Hills CC course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Two events on this course since 2000 are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.10	Scrambling
0.07	Putts per GIR
0.07	Sand saves
0.05	Driving accuracy

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Abraham Ancer	72.27
Webb Simpson	72.32
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	72.32
Patrick Cantlay	72.33
Kevin Na	72.33
Shaun Norris	72.34
Seamus Power	72.35
Sungjae Im	72.35

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Min Woo Lee	73.2
Nicolai Hojgaard	73.2
Dean Burmester	73.1
Adri Arnaus	73.0
Ryan Fox	72.9
Laurie Canter	72.9
Garrick Higgo	72.9
Jimmy Walker	72.9

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event host city, Tulsa OK.

Player	Residence	Distance
Viktor Hovland	Stillwater OK	75
Matthew Wolff	Edmond, OK	100
Talor Gooch	Midwest City OK	100
Ryan Palmer	Colleyville TX	225
Bryson DeChambeau	Dallas TX	225
Jordan Spieth	Dallas TX	225
Harry Higgs	Dallas TX	225
Kramer Hickok	Dallas TX	225
Joohyung Kim	Seoul, South Korea	225
Carlos Ortiz	Dallas TX	225
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas TX	225
Will Zalatoris	Dallas TX	225

Mathematically speaking

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.303
I love this place	0.178
Ooh, that’s hot	0.156
Location, location, location	0.014

PGA Championship

May 16, 2022 Thomas Hawley Picks, U.S. Events

Scottie Scheffler

Pick	Player	Finish Estimate	Actual Finish
1	Scottie Scheffler	21.1	89
2	Jon Rahm	21.2	48
3	Patrick Cantlay	21.8	123
4	Justin Thomas	25.8	1
5	Cameron Smith	26.2	13
6	Xander Schauffele	27.6	13
7	Rory McIlroy	28.4	8
8	Will Zalatoris	29.7	2
9	Shane Lowry	29.8	23
10	Dustin Johnson	31.6	89
11	Brooks Koepka	31.9	55
12	Collin Morikawa	33.2	55
13	Jordan Spieth	34.8	34
14	Paul Casey	35.1	DNP
15	Cameron Young	35.5	3
16	Corey Conners	36.2	110
17	Hideki Matsuyama	36.7	60
18	Matthew Fitzpatrick	36.9	5
19	Daniel Berger	36.9	135
20	Harold Varner	37.7	48
21	Sam Burns	38.1	20
22	Billy Horschel	38.1	68
23	Viktor Hovland	38.9	41
24	Sungjae Im	43.0	DNP
25	Matt Kuchar	43.7	34
26	Joaquin Niemann	45.4	23
27	Kevin Na	46.3	23
28	Jason Kokrak	47.0	60
29	Alex Noren	47.1	89
30	Davis Riley	47.4	13
31	Cameron Tringale	47.7	41
32	Talor Gooch	48.1	20
33	Adam Scott	48.3	98
34	Max Homa	48.6	13
35	Tyrrell Hatton	48.8	13
36	Louis Oosthuizen	49.0	60
37	Tommy Fleetwood	49.5	5
38	Sergio Garcia	49.6	98
39	Sebastian Munoz	49.6	55
40	Tony Finau	49.7	30
41	Mito Pereira	49.7	3
42	Erik van Rooyen	49.9	123
43	Russell Henley	50.8	60
44	Brian Harman	51.1	34
45	Seamus Power	51.1	9
46	Abraham Ancer	52.5	9
47	Bubba Watson	53.6	30
48	Aaron Wise	53.6	23
49	Troy Merritt	53.9	41
50	Jason Day	53.9	55
51	Anirban Lahiri	54.1	89
52	Webb Simpson	54.2	20
53	Adam Hadwin	54.3	71
54	Keegan Bradley	54.9	48
55	Maverick McNealy	55.0	75
56	Justin Rose	55.1	13
57	Ryan Palmer	55.8	80
58	Jhonattan Vegas	55.9	132
59	Patrick Reed	56.4	34
60	Lanto Griffin	56.7	60
61	Gary Woodland	56.7	34
62	Bryson DeChambeau	56.8	DNP
63	Si Woo Kim	56.8	60
64	Stewart Cink	57.1	23
65	Kevin Kisner	57.9	80
66	Marc Leishman	58.4	34
67	KH Lee	58.5	41
68	Keith Mitchell	58.6	34
69	Cameron Champ	58.6	116
70	Sepp Straka	59.4	78
71	Ian Poulter	59.8	80
72	Tom Hoge	59.9	9
73	JJ Spaun	60.0	80
74	Chris Kirk	60.1	5
75	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	60.4	89
76	Mac Hughes	60.6	110
77	Branden Grace	61.2	80
78	Kevin Streelman	61.3	41
79	Cameron Davis	62.0	48
80	Robert MacIntyre	62.6	77
81	Charl Schwartzel	63.0	60
82	Patton Kizzire	63.3	75
83	Matthew Wolff	63.4	135
84	Thomas Pieters	63.5	71
85	Matt Jones	64.2	116
86	Oliver Bekker	64.2	116
87	Lee Westwood	64.4	89
88	Lucas Herbert	64.4	13
89	Francesco Molinari	64.5	55
90	Rickie Fowler	65.3	23
91	Richard Bland	65.8	116
92	Min Woo Lee	66.0	80
93	Luke List	66.0	41
94	Sam Horsfield	66.1	110
95	Zach Johnson	66.3	123
96	Lucas Glover	66.4	23
97	Ryan Fox	67.2	54
98	Hudson Swafford	67.4	105
99	Bernd Wiesberger	67.5	30
100	Carlos Ortiz	67.5	144
101	Pablo Larrazabal	67.8	144
102	Joohyung Kim	67.9	144
103	Henrik Stenson	68.5	80
104	Padraig Harrington	68.7	132
105	Justin Harding	68.8	71
106	Chad Ramey	69.2	123
107	Takumi Kanaya	69.2	135
108	Harry Higgs	69.5	80
109	Garrick Higgo	69.7	116
110	Adri Arnaus	69.7	30
111	Laurie Canter	70.6	48
112	Dean Burmester	71.1	98
113	Kramer Hickok	71.1	69
114	Tiger Woods	71.2	WD
115	Martin Kaymer	71.7	135
116	Ryosuke Kinoshita	72.9	123
117	Shaun Norris	73.1	71
118	Nicolai Hojgaard	73.7	135
119	Daniel van Tonder	73.7	110
120	Rikuya Hoshino	73.7	60
121	Chan Kim	74.3	80
122	Jimmy Walker	74.5	DNP
123	Ryan Brehm	74.6	110
124	Jason Dufner	75.7	98
125	Yuki Inamori	75.8	105
126	Jinichiro Kozuma	76.0	89
127	Kazuki Higa	76.3	DNP
128	Sadom Kaewkanjana	76.5	98
129	Bi-o Kim	77.2	105
130	Alex Cejka	77.9	123
131	YE Yang	78.2	89
132	Davis Love	78.3	DNP
133	Rich Beem	78.3	98
134	Jesse Mueller	78.3	116
135	Alex Beach	78.4	123
136	Brandon Bingaman	78.4	135
137	Michael Block	78.4	123
138	Matthew Borchert	78.4	98
139	Tyler Collet	78.4	116
140	John Daly	78.4	105
141	Paul Dickinson	78.4	148
142	Tim Feenstra	78.4	153
143	Austin Hurt	78.4	154
144	Colin Inglis	78.4	148
145	Nic Ishee	78.4	135
146	Jared Jones	78.4	150
147	Sean McCarty	78.4	155
148	Kyle Mendoza	78.4	132
149	Shaun Micheel	78.4	135
150	Dylan Newman	78.4	135
151	Zac Oakley	78.4	156
152	Casey Pyne	78.4	150
153	Ryan Vermeer	78.4	123
154	Shawn Warren	78.4	150
155	Wyatt Worthington	78.4	144
	Brendan Steele	late entry	9
	Adam Schenk	late entry	44
	Denny McCarthy	late entry	50
	Beau Hossler	late entry	69
	Russell Knox	late entry	94
	Scott Stallings	late entry	109
	Joel Dahmen	late entry	115
More \| Less

The accuracy number for these picks is 61. The average is 129. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Home

I love this place!

Top of the heap

Sorry, can’t make it

Ooh, that’s hot

Brr, that’s cold

Certain skills required

Location, location, location

Anyplace but here

Staying close to home

Mathematically speaking

I love this place!

Top of the heap

Sorry, can’t make it

Ooh, that’s hot

Brr, that’s cold

Certain skills required

Location, location, location

Anyplace but here

Staying close to home

Mathematically speaking

I love this place!

Top of the heap

Sorry, can’t make it

Ooh, that’s hot

Brr, that’s cold

Certain skills required

Location, location, location

Anyplace but here

Staying close to home

Mathematically speaking